(Air Raid Alert Map 12 MAR 2025)
As you can see in the air raid alert map above, all of central and eastern Ukraine, with the exception of Kherson Oblast, are under air raid alert because of Russian drone swarms.
‘Mr. Lavrov, speaking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and said Russia was ready for the “normal relations” that the United States was offering.’ www.nytimes.com/2025/03/12/w…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Reportedly, Moscow wants Trump to halt all military supplies to Ukraine to even consider talking about a ceasefire in Ukraine.
I think the “pause -unpause” button in DC will soon break down— Anton Barbashin (@abarbashin.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Through back channels with western officials, Russian experts have promoted a scenario in which Ukraine becomes a “big Austria” with a constitutional guarantee of neutrality, said a senior European diplomat. That would in effect allow Russia to “pull the strings” and increase control over Ukraine…
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) March 12, 2025 at 6:49 PM
From The Financial Times:
By agreeing to a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine has turned the tables diplomatically on Russia.
If the Kremlin maintains its military campaign to subjugate Ukraine, it now risks being framed as the obstacle to peace and incurring the wrath of US President Donald Trump.
Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin has always insisted that a ceasefire could only come alongside a final settlement. He has shown no sign of stepping back from his maximalist demands, which would undermine Ukraine’s existence as a functional state. Last week, he told the mother of a Russian soldier killed in action that he would pursue nothing short of “victory”.
Moscow’s objective is to deceive the Trump administration into a “deal that — to the US team — looks like Trump gets what he wants (just a ceasefire), while in fact it will lead to what Russia wants (Russian control over Kyiv)”, said Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Ukraine, meanwhile, aims to dispel “illusions on the side of the US about what Russia is willing to do”, said Kluge. “It’s basically like a discovery process for the US team to understand where Russia really stands.”
Through back channels with western officials, Russian experts have promoted a scenario in which Ukraine becomes a “big Austria” with a constitutional guarantee of neutrality, said a senior European diplomat.
That would in effect allow Russia to “pull the strings” and increase its control over Ukraine, the diplomat said, adding that the Russians “want to replace Zelenskyy and put in a puppet regime”.
Thomas Graham, former senior director for Russia at the US National Security Council, said the Kremlin wanted Ukraine to be “well within Russia’s orbit”, much like neighbouring Belarus, while Kyiv’s ambition was to integrate with the west.
Sounds like a call for more war crimes. “Putin said the captured fighters should be “treated as terrorists, in accordance with the laws of the Russian Federation,” Agence-France-Presse reports.” www.theguardian.com/world/live/2…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 5:36 PM
From The Guardian:
Putin says captured Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk will be treated as ‘terrorists’
Russia’s chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, said his forces had captured about 430 Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region, state news agency Tass reports.
Gerasimov, in a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin at a command post in Kursk, said:
The Ukrainian military, seeing futility of further resistance, started surrendering. Four hundred and thirty fighters were captured.
Putin said the captured fighters should be “treated as terrorists, in accordance with the laws of the Russian Federation,” Agence-France-Presse reports.
Putin’s comments suggest the captured soldiers could face trials in Russian courts and be jailed for decades.
Looks like the truce proposal is off to a great start!
“We are committed to ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security: what’s the point of wasting time to see a war break out again in three, four, six years? We are not interested in that”—Rubio
Nice to see US politicians openly acknowledging the importance of achieving lasting peace.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 10:32 AM
It would be nice to hear from someone in the US with actual authority, rather than Rubio.
One of the biggest problems with security guarantees is that, given recent political shifts, they largely do not exist. Article 5 is more uncertain than ever. While I strongly support security guarantees for Ukraine, in reality they may not be available for most at this moment
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Zelenskyy on a drone attack on Russia: “Every attack will be reciprocated, regardless of how large the country attacking us is. Whether you think of yourself as an empire or something else, you will always get a response from a country like Ukraine.”
#Zelenskyy #Ukraine
— Tata Tedoradze🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@tatatedoradze.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 12:22 PM
“We are fighting for our independence. Therefore, we will not recognize any territories occupied by Russia.” – Zelenskyy.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Everything Achieved for Ukraine’s Security Today Will Benefit Ukraine for Years and Decades to Come – Address by the President
12 March 2025 – 19:53
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I held a Staff meeting – Technology Staff. The focus was primarily on our drones and the long-range strikes conducted by Ukrainian drones. We analyzed their recent use: the quality of the strikes, the results of their application, and the most effective drone models. The participants included military and government officials, and, most importantly – our manufacturers of drones and other weapons. We managed to discuss many technical details today. The key point is that we need to enhance our weapons’ ability to overcome Russian electronic warfare and air defenses. Of course, we also discussed ways to further increase production: there is still a need for contracts, funding, and investments from our partners. The manufacturers proposed specific technological solutions. In ten days, we will revisit these matters, and we need answers to everything discussed today. Our Ukrainian production of drones and their continuous modernization are a key part of our system of deterrence against Russia, which is crucial for ensuring Ukraine’s security in the long term; and this will also become our international advantage – our ability to export security after this war. Even now, there is immense interest from our friends around the world in Ukraine’s developments, our capabilities, and our technological production. In this war, Ukrainians have shown how much drones can do to protect positions and save people’s lives, we have shown the importance of constantly developing the unmanned component. Of course, this will also serve as our economic advantage in relations with other partners. But that’s after the war. For now, we must significantly increase the effectiveness of Ukrainian weapons; and everything achieved for Ukraine’s security today will benefit Ukraine for years and decades to come.
At the same time, we continue our work on the diplomatic front – to ensure that all the necessary conditions are swiftly in place to apply pressure on Russia, to achieve real peace. I am awaiting a report from the Ukrainian delegation that worked in Saudi Arabia, and we are preparing new tasks for our diplomacy. We must move toward peace. We must move toward security guarantees. We need to free our people. We are determined to work as quickly as possible with our partners. The key factor is our partners’ ability to ensure Russia’s readiness not to deceive but to genuinely end the war.
Right now, Russian strikes have not stopped. Around a hundred “Shahed” drones attack Ukraine each night. Missile strikes are regular, and some of our civilian infrastructure, our ports, have been hit, unfortunately, including in Odesa. Yesterday, a civilian ship was struck there – they were just loading wheat, destined for Algeria. People were killed, citizens of Syria. My condolences. Some people were also wounded, and they received the necessary assistance. Any attempt by Russia to “wriggle out” will be clear evidence to everyone that it is Russia that does not want peace. With the clear conclusions drawn by the world. I thank all those who are helping us defend lives and who are working to ensure reliable security. Now is a time when much is being decided. I thank everyone who is helping.
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also gave a press briefing about the Jeddah talks:
And First Lady Zelenska had a video call with the First Lady of Suriname:
Olena Zelenska Held a Video Call with the First Lady of Suriname
12 March 2025 – 10:56
First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska held a video call with First Lady of Suriname Mellisa Santokhi-Seenacherry.
Olena Zelenska expressed gratitude to Suriname, all CARICOM countries, and the Spouses of CARICOM Leaders Action Network (SCLAN) for their consistent support of Ukraine.
“SCLAN, like the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, addresses common global issues and seeks effective mechanisms to draw attention to and overcome global humanitarian challenges. This includes launching initiatives in healthcare and mental well-being, children’s rights and safety, women’s empowerment, and gender equality,” said the First Lady of Ukraine.
She also highlighted the participation of the First Lady of Suriname in the global platform event of the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen during the UN General Assembly session, in the Summit’s communication campaign for World Children’s Day, and in the gender equality panel at the Global Soft Power Summit in London.
During their conversation, the two First Ladies discussed future joint projects, including Mellisa Santokhi-Seenacherry’s “How We Feel” initiative on adolescent mental health.
“In Ukraine, we also place special emphasis on mental health, especially in the context of overcoming the consequences of war. The national mental health program ‘How Are You?’ helps Ukrainians take care of their psychological well-being,” Olena Zelenska emphasized.
She offered to cooperate in the communication campaign conducted by the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen on the occasion of Mental Health Awareness Month.
“This will allow us to raise awareness of the importance of mental health, share best practices, and support people around the world,” said the First Lady of Ukraine.
Georgia:
Rustaveli is once again blocked by protesters. There has not been a single day since November 28 when demonstrators have not blocked the avenue.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 105— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Day 105. The Rector of Theater Uni that suspended students over protests is at Public Broadcaster, but students aren’t allowed on air. He was smuggled in through the back, but now all exits are blocked by #GeorgiaProtests.
The Rustaveli protest arrived at the Broadcaster, as opposed to vice versa.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 3:18 PM
🚨 Theatre University students demand that GPB grant them airtime. Today, rector Giorgi Shalutashvili is invited there. He used the back entrance amid protests. 10 students from the Theatre University were suspended from their studies due to their participation in the protest.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 2:57 PM
I did not know Columbia had a campus in Tbilisi.
‘Oscar Lima Echo Oscar Lima Alpha’ — Nikoloz Javakhishvili, who was detained for participating in protests is wearing a T-shirt with the NATO phonetic alphabet printed on it at his trial.
‘Ole Ola’ is a protest song that criticizes Georgian Dream (GD) using swear words.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 7:57 AM
19-year-old regime prisoner of conscience Irakli Miminoshvili proposed to his girlfriend today at his trial. 🥹 #terrorinGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 9:46 AM
During the trial, the defendant, Irakli Miminoshvili, proposed to his girlfriend.
“I’m fine, don’t worry. During these three months in prison I realized that I am surrounded by the best people. Mom, I love you. Liza (sister) I love you. And Nini, will you marry me?”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The violent Special Tasks Department Director Zviad Kharazishvili, AKA “Khareba” is reportedly hospitalized again, for the second time in six weeks.
I hope someday we get to know what the hell has been going on inside the regime.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Ten weeks*, sorry.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Today, March 12, Giorgi Chikvaidze began a hunger strike. He refuses to drink water as well.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 3:28 PM
NATO:
No offence to Admiral Giuseppe Dragone, but he has no flipping clue what Donald Trump will or will not do & he should be careful of making statements that he cannot back up.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Back to Ukraine:
The cost:
Yesterday in Kyiv, a farewell ceremony was held for Dominik “Tolkien” Abelen, a 28-year-old soldier of the HUR Legion from New Zealand and a member of the Māori people. His comrades honored him with the traditional Māori warrior dance, the “Haka”.
Eternal memory to the hero.— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Yet another video has surfaced online showing the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war by russian soldiers, their hands tied behind their backs as they were shot.
This is a disgusting and inhumane war crime that was possible because of the failure to address such atrocities.
Fuck russia.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Ukrainian FPV drones equipped with 10kg TM-62 anti tank mines.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 7:25 AM
IRIS-T air defense shoots down a Russian cruise missile in the skies over Ukraine.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 6:17 AM
Kryvyi Rih:
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
Russian forces launched a double-tap missile attack on a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, killing one civilian and injuring five others. The strike also damaged two rescue vehicles and nearby residential buildings.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Ukrainian rescuers shared bodycam footage capturing Russia’s brutal double-tap strike on Kryvyi Rih.
Their courage and unwavering commitment to saving lives, even in the face of such calculated and ruthless tactics, is truly admirable.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 10:42 AM
The number of injured in russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih has risen to 14, with four people in severe condition.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 5:40 AM
Kostyantynivka:
Russia keeps destroying Kostyantynivka.
They launched 11 glide bombs onto the town today. At least 2 people died, and 8 others were injured.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Kyiv:
Air raid alert in Kyiv – first since the early hours this morning. Threat of ballistic missile launches. The alerts are now spreading across the east, north and central oblasts.
Still, it’s nice to know that US intelligence is back to help warn us of fascist Russia’s attacks.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Kharkiv:
Russian drones approaching Kharkiv airspace ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Operators of FPV drones from the Belarusian Kalinouski Regiment are eliminating enemy infantry, a 120mm mortar, and enemy motor vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The Toretsk direction:
In the Toretsk direction, soldiers of the 28th Brigade destroyed a column of four “barn tanks” with a group of attackers under metal sheets.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 12, 2025 at 9:43 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
A happy moment in this difficult time: These hungry pups who live by the road between Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka in eastern Ukraine always come running when the Hachiko team arrives with food! 🐕🇺🇦
— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) March 9, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Open thread!
Outsourcing Some Good News
u
Margaret Flowers, another cosplay “leftist”, was praising Donald Trump yesterday for this make-believe “truce” (while blaming Ukraine — and, of course Joe Biden — for the February 2022 “special military operation”). Maybe I’m just too cynical, but I’m beginning to doubt the sincerity of some of these people. Maybe they’re Putin operatives AND Trump operatives.
u
@u: In fairness, though, Ukrainian civilians have been destroying Russian ordinance with their bodies for more than three years now — so, really, who can say who’s to blame?
Gin & Tonic
The text on that pic of the mine-equipped drones says “New technology for cleaning up trash” “Ukrainian version 100% guaranteed” “Cleaning firm ‘Ocean’s 12′”
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
Reposted from below.
Perun has noted, that the current rates are 100 ruZZian 200’s and 96 armoured vehicles for every square KM ruZZia claims to have taken.
At the current attrition rate, that’s 450,000 200’s and over 13,400 armoured vehicles for the ruZZians to just occupy the Oblasts they have claimed to have annexed.
He also, points out that a snail, moving at full speed, day and night would make it from Dnipro to Liev in 38 days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhTjj_2Nldc
Kriegsforscher put’s the Kursk situation into context.
https://nitter.poast.org/OSINTua/status/1899863928441561468#m
Gin & Tonic
Adam, I’m wondering of you’ve read this CSIS report on AI-enabled warfare?
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: Don’t know if you meant to write L’viv or Kyiv where you wrote Liev.
And to those readers who may only pop in here sporadically, note that a “200” is a KIA.
Jay
L’viv. Near the Polish border.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Haven’t had a chance yet.
Adam L Silverman
@Westyny: You’re welcome.
hrprogressive
I understand this is the Ukraine thread but I’m gonna ask anyway.
Malcolm Nance apparently thinks Trump is going to invade Canada and Greenland.
Not sure if you’ve heard/seen that or have thoughts but that’s quite a claim to make, isn’t it?
He’s otherwise seen like a credible person but I struggle to see how that happens.
But also…maybe?
just another boomer
So things have progressed so far we have Lavrov expressing thoughts on Democrats’ “departure from Christian values.” I can remember back when Lavrov commenting on UN investigation of Russian atrocities said “”Russia is not squeaky clean. Russia is what it is. And we are not ashamed of showing who we are.” I liked him better back then. He was so much more authentic.
Gin & Tonic
@hrprogressive: I, uhm, don’t think Adam is a fan. There might be a reason you never see him quoted here.
Chris
@u:
Honestly, at this point, I don’t think it’s even appropriate to refer to the People In Che Guevara T-Shirts Who Believe The United States Is The Focus Of Evil In The Modern World as “leftists” even with scare quotes. In the eighties, sure, maybe as late as the nineties and 2000s. But today they’re just alt-rightists.
It’s kind of like Bonapartists; in their original context, they were arguably progressive, at least by comparison with the all old-school monarchists both in France and abroad who considered them their arch-nemesis. But today, they (all dozen of them)’re just another brand of monarchist, completely indistinguishable from the other ones in terms of all the things they believe.
Gin & Tonic
@just another boomer: I think an official representative of a country that’s in the top 5 in the world for divorce rate should maybe stfu on ‘Christian values.’
Chris
@just another boomer:
Putin and Putin’s inner circle isn’t crazy about him, is my understanding. I assume they keep him around because they’re not quite as batshit insane as the Trumpies when it comes to “anyone I don’t currently consider a BFF must be removed from government immediately.”
Adam L Silverman
@hrprogressive: I ignore him.
hrprogressive
@Adam L Silverman:
Alright, that’s info enough. Thanks.
Jay
@hrprogressive:
Based on WWI, WWII, the Korean War, Vietnam, The Balkan Wars, Afghanistan and the Iraq battles against ISIL, volunteer rates,
The 2 million and a bit US troops, (Regulars and NG), with Global deployments would be facing 350,000 Canadian Regular Army and Reserves, (which are currently being raised to full enrolment and training up), and 650,000+ irregulars, or more, the volunteer number could go as high as 4 million.
We have 40 million people and 127 million guns.
US Forces got wrecked by 50,000 Talibs, 15,000 Iraqi Insurgents and 20,000 ISIL fighters.
Not gonna happen. Y’all had to move the DJTdiot’s Inauguration indoors because it was “too cold” in Washington DC, and y’all are going to invade Canada, when we consider that Tshirt and Shorts weather and only 12″ of snow, time to break out the flip flops weather?
Pretty sure that “grabbing” the Niagara peninsula is a raccoon fart in the crowd of rabid racoons currently ripping out the wiring in DJTdiots brain, but that is as far as it will go.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: We couldn’t deploy 2 million if we had too.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Yurp.
For the first time since the Korean War, we have 4 Companies of Seaforths, 2 fully trained, (Old Guard), 2 training up. Word is we will have 8 Companies by next year. First time since WWI. All the Militia Regiments are doing the same. We are turning people away, getting 25-30 volunteers a day, and have no room for them.
Back in the day we had 1 M-113 with an exposed gun station for 1 in 4 sections, everybody else rode in a Deuce or Ultis. Now, we have a Senator with a ROWS for every Section with Recon and Command in armoured Mercedes. We are seriously upgunned compared to the ’80’s.
wjca
And of course we have to keep a whole lot of regular troops down on the Mexican border, lest a few horrible brown people sneak in — probably more than half of them. Further degrading the troop counts available.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
Re that “CSIS report on AI-enabled warfare”, skimmed it.
As a person who works in AI, albeit not in low-latency low(to mid)-hardware-resources inference (e.g. image analysis onboard drones), none of the AI material made me groan; it all seems doable.
Eye catching:
– The Ukraine military now has, and curates and maintains, what may be the best dataset worldwide for training ML-models for use by military automation. And it is made accessible and searchable to those who need it, or subsets of it relevant to their specialized needs.
– There is a strong cooperative (research and) development infrastructure, with a focus on loose quickly-evolving standards, modular design, etc.
The improvements are very rapid, as is usual during a wartime arms race; the methods developed will have major future implications for civilians (inc criminals), and for state security apparatuses. (In blunter words, scary.)
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Yes.
E.R. Musk’s brain is younger, but he’s seriously accelerating the process with drugs, including neural plasticizers like ketamine, combined with mental immersion in an obsequious reactionary echo chamber, partly of his own creation.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: Don’t forget the uppers.
Aziz, light!
@Jay:
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the two hundreds.
Kayla Rudbek
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t know what the abortion rate is in current Russia, but I understand that it was high in the Soviet Union (my childhood parish had a copy of The Women’s Decameron by a Soviet dissident and this was one of the topics; Heinlein also commented that the Russians weren’t replacing themselves back in the 1970s; the official population figures were inflated but visitors and honest observers could see it)
Jay
@Kayla Rudbek:
It’s down to about 30% from 84% in 2012.
Nettoyeur
@Jay: What is a “200” ?
Geminid
@Nettoyeur: I believe that’s the Russian military’s code for “KIA” (Killed in Action).