It will take a near miracle to win both of these special elections and get two more seats in the House.
But sometimes the underdog really does win. You can’t win if you don’t play, and luck favors the prepared.
There’s still $400 left on the $1,000 Angel match from PatrickG. We’re calling this a fresh match, and starting right now, he will match up to $50 per person. PATRICKG ANGEL MATCH IS COMPLETE!
New Angel just stepped forward! Up to $50 per person, for a total of $1,000 – thank you so much to our Anonymous Angel!
We met our $5,000 goal for FL-01, and we need another $6,650 or so to meet our goal for the more winnable race inn FL-06
These next two years are gonna be a long slog in so many ways, and it’s already testing our mettle.
But Balloon Juice is the little engine that could. We are the folks who raised a whopping $790,000 for Jon Ossoff during the primary, the Nov 2020 election, and the run-off in Jan 2021. That’s not a typo!
And we’ll be raising money again for him in the fight to keep his seat in Nov 2026. But in keeping with our “boots on the ground” focus these days, we met with their campaign manager this week to talk about an arrangement so that whatever we raise is spent on organizing and boots on the ground, and not TV ads or consultants.
In the meantime, I have to have faith that we can get to $15,000 for a possible House seat in FL. Let’s wipe the arrogant grins off of their smarmy Republican faces by winning at least one of these Florida races. And if a miracle occurs and we win both, it will rock their world.
Either way, with a good showing on April 1, we’ll have momentum going into the New York special election for the House.
Fuck those guys, let’s go.
BenInNM
Just put in $10
Mr. Bemused Senior
I put $100 in last night.
WaterGirl
@BenInNM: @Mr. Bemused Senior: Thank you, both!
Mr. Bemused, we can’t match the $100 from last night, but the donation is much appreciated!
It’s been heartwarming to see the number creeping up, even on days without a post.
DarbysMom
In for $25.
West of the Cascades
Just put in a sparkling fresh brand new $100 which I hope can still be matched (for $50)!
Rockstar
In for $20, fuck’em is the right attitude. Thanks Watergirl!
Josie
In for $50.
EighthCousin
Just added $50.
persistentillusion
In for $25. Thanks, WG.
sixthdoctor
In for $25.
JeanneT
$25 in from me
VFX Lurker
In for $50 for FL-06.
Thank you so much, WaterGirl and PatrickG.
Diesel Kitty
In for $50
H.E.Wolf
Thank you to the angels, the donors, and to our fundraising impressaria WaterGirl.
Win or lose, this will have made a difference for the better! WaterGirl is right about the value of momentum.
eclare
@H.E.Wolf:
Absolutely! I wish I could contribute right now, but I can’t. Huge thank you to all who can.
maody
in for $50 from North Carolina
WaterGirl
Thanks to all 12 of you! That finishes off the Angel match from PatrickG. Thank you, Patrick!
@BenInNM:
@DarbysMom:
@West of the Cascades:
@Rockstar:
@Josie:
@EighthCousin:
@persistentillusion:
@sixthdoctor:
@JeanneT:
@VFX Lurker:
@Diesel Kitty:
@maody:
WaterGirl
I’ll also put in a plug for the “friends and family” discounts that “PatrickG” shares with us when BJ peeps are buying a new Apple product! Just send me email if / when you are in the market, and I’ll connect you with Patrick.
WaterGirl
New Angel just stepped forward! Up to $50 per person, for a total of $1,000 – thank you so much to our Anonymous Angel!
As always, everything resets with a new Angel.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Just put in $200. Hope the Anonymous Angel match is still happening. Thank you WG!!
Matt McIrvin
In for another $50. Yeah, it’s a long shot. But imagine.
rodwell
Ok I am in for $50. I just start a new full-time job position (well playing and WFH). Now I will have more funds for this fight. The original plan to rely on my retirement savings with some consulting is probably not wise with Donnie causing so much market volatility.
Barbara
I donated $50.
Kristine
Just kicked in $50 for FL-0
And 10 more addresses for the Supreme Court race in WI.
Gretchen
In for $50 to FL-06. Can you imagine the Republican distress if we win one or both?
Redshift
The special election in Iowa swung more than 20 points toward the Dems compared to the presidential election. (Yeah, it’s a state legislative district, so not directly comparable, but still.) Nothing is impossible, and every point we narrow the gap makes Republicans fear losing a general election, not just a primary challenge.
Redshift
Another $100 for FL-06!
WaterGirl
@Gretchen:
I would love to imagine that! :-)
Hoping of course that we do win at least FL-06, but even if we don’t win either one outright, if we seriously narrow the gap from R+way-too-high, it should scare the Rs and give us momentum for New York.
I don’t know how it will turn out, but I believe it’s worth fighting for.
WaterGirl
Thanks to all who are donating! We have $600 left on the new $1,000 anonymous match.
I don’t think PatrickG’s $1k is in the thermometer yet, so we can look for a nice jump when that happens.
bbleh
Ok here are some muneez. $25 for the Good Of Humanity, and also because I’m so depressed and sick of the ongoing sh!t-show of corruption and FAIL that I’m about to start looking into retirement in New Zealand or something.
Another protest Saturday. That’ll help…
3letterjon
Southern Arizona’s longtime Representative Raul Grijalva just died, so this is more important than before. Not that he was expected back real soon, but it’ll be a while before he gets replaced.
Paul W.
I’ll do 25, I have trouble putting too much money in this particular race at this time with this close of a date but want to send a message.
dm
@WaterGirl: Are we supposed to come here and say, or is the change in the thermometer sufficient? If the former, then I put in $50 yesterday.
Has anyone compared Trump’s pronouncements about Greenland and Canada to Woody Allen’s dictator of San Marcos in Bananas?
“Underwear shall be changed every half hour, and you must wear it on the outside so we can check.”
Old School
@dm:
Someone made that joke back in January when Trump was issuing his first round of executive orders, but since it has been over a month, I’d say you are welcome to do it again.
dc
In for $20.00
H.E.Wolf
@3letterjon: May Rep. Grijalva rest in power.
I think he would have appreciated what we’re doing.
Jimmm
I’m in for $25.
WaterGirl
@dm: A donation is matched up to the matchable amount if you let us know in the comments or send me an email message. (For this match it’s up to $50.)
Very occasionally, when we are close-ish to meeting the goal, someone will say “I’ll add $500 or $1k or $2,500to the thermometer when the thermometer reaches Y amount. But that has only happened 2 or 3 times.
Thank you!
3letterjon
@3letterjon:
https://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/031325_grijalva_dead/raul-grijalva-longtime-tucson-congressman-dies-77/
Jimmm
Is it supposed to show that the donation went to “National Ground Game PAC – IE” ?
I don’t remember ever seeing that before…
WaterGirl
@3letterjon: Really sorry to hear that he died.
WaterGirl
@Jimmm: Yes, National Ground Game is the organization that is on the ground for these special elections.
All the info is in my original post.
Florida Special Elections – Long Shot or Potentially History aking Opportunity?
WaterGirl
@Jimmm: From that post:
National Ground Game
Many of you have asked in the comments if we would do any fundraising or take other action to help win these Florida seats. (Special thanks for this to rikyrah for the reminders.) So here’s your opportunity to donate or volunteer for these races, if you are so inclined.
Consistent with our “boots on the ground” preference, we identified and made contact with an organization that went all out registering voters in Florida 1st and 6th, and is now pounding the pavement to turn out voters.
Meet the National Ground Game. The Ground Game dispatches organizers and canvassers in all 50 states. We’ve made contact with Board Member Zoe Cohen-Sanchez, who is featured in the video below describing the organization’s efforts in FL-01 and FL-06.
Short inspirational video below. ⬇️
There is not enough time to go through our typical process of meeting with folks from an organization, seeing if there is a good fit, trying to figure out if there is a way that we can help them do something beyond what they are normally able to do, and meeting with them again to work out details. But we can put up thermometers to support their work.
This group will also be organizing for the open House seat in New York, and we hope to meet and talk with them as they begin to focus in New York. But right now, the last thing we want to do is slow anything down, so we’re putting up the thermometer and they happily agreed to use whatever funds we might raise for the individual races.
dm
@Old School: May have been me. I think about more comments than I end up making here.
Paul Krugman’s recent “A mind is a terrible thing to lose” made me think of it again.
WaterGirl
@Jimmm: Here’s the video:
WaterGirl
@dm: Lurk less, comment more! :-)
WaterGirl
We have $500 left on the new $1,000 anonymous match.
Mercy
Fuck those guys.
In for $50.
janesays
@3letterjon: That’s two Democratic seats vacated in the last ten days – Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18) died last week. Current composition of the House is 218R – 213D, with four vacancies. The other two vacancies are for the seats of Matt Gaetz (FL-1) and Mike Waltz (FL-6), and both seats will be filled in special elections on April 1st. Unfortunately, both seats are extremely red (R+18 and R+14), so it will be pretty tough to flip either one. Elise Stefanik is apparently still in Congress, as she has not yet been confirmed as U.N. ambassador. It appears the Senate is holding up her confirmation specifically to keep her seat filled until after the Gaetz and Waltz seats are filled next month, because the Republicans have very little breathing room with their current microscopically small House majority.
Jimmm
@WaterGirl: Thanks! Somehow I missed that the first time around… after a couple of months of despair I’m trying to get my head back in the game.
WaterGirl
@Paul W.:
Yeah, I have formally set the donation cutoff for 3/18 – because after that our funds can’t really impact the April 1 election. But informally I would really like us to get this done today or tomorrow.
On the plus side, the organization gets the funds as they go, so it’s not like they won’t see any of the (hopefully) $15,000 until we raise the last penny.
But the sooner we complete this, the sooner we can start fundraising for the House special election in New York. With better odds!
Every seat matters.
WaterGirl
@Jimmm:
So say we all!
I have probably put up 5 or 6 posts about this so at some point I try not to share the same information over and over. Here’s a tip: If you click on the link up top (and I’ll include it here) you can see the previous posts.
Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26
Central Planning
Just threw in $25. Let’s go!!!
Wolvesvalley
OK, here’s another $50.
Emily B.
$15 into the pot.
3letterjon
@janesays: another wrinkle is that the NY legislature had threatened to slowplay the replacement election for Stefanik’s seat. Strategically/politically that may be a good idea for NY, but if it caught on in Texas it would leave a seat in Houston empty for a longer while. Not sure what each State’s process is, but the link I had suggests the Governor starts the ball rolling for a special election here in AZ.
surfk9
In for $25
Geminid
@3letterjon: I think Albany Democrats backed off on slow-walking the special election to fill Stefanik’s NY21 seat. They were talking about delaying it until August or even later, but they held off on the requisite legislation and now the special election will likely be held in July.
New York does have a shortcut most other states do not. They skip the primary and let the parties’ district committees select the special election candidate.
NY21 Dems have already picked 48 year-old dairy farmer* and basketball coach Blake Gendeben to contest the election. NY21 Republicans have not yet picked their candidate. I read they have 5 or 6 politicians vying for the nod.
* The New York 21st CD is said to contain 6,000 farms. I expect they are mostly small to medium sized operations.
The district is very large geographically and contains much of Adirondack Park. It has a fairly large outdoors and tourism industry which already is being hit by a Canadian tourist boycott. It also contains Fort Drum, home of the 10th Mountain Division.
janesays
@3letterjon: Abbott has no statutory or constitutional deadline on when he needs to call a special election to fill the late Rep. Turner’s seat. I think he may be able to leave the seat vacant until the midterms if he wants to. Hard to find specific state laws with regard to special elections for filling vacancies in the U.S. House – each state has its own rules.
Captain C
In for $50.
WaterGirl
Thanks, everyone. Just $300 left.
frosty
Thanks Angel! $50 from me. I wouldn’t have done it without you.
Another Scott
+$25+
The quicker we can flip the House, the quicker there will be checks on this destruction.
We won’t win them all, but every election is an opportunity to create a better future.
Forward!!
Best wishes,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott:
I just wanted to see that again.
WaterGirl
Thanks, you guys. Just $150 left on the Angel match.
janesays
Anybody know what the biggest Cook PVI flip has been in recent years?
Currently, the most Republican leaning district held by a Democrat is ME-2, which is represented by Jared Golden, and has a Cook PVI rating of R+6. The most Democratic leaning district held by a Republican is CA-22, which is represented by Dabid Valadao, and has a Cook PVI rating of D+5.
These are the Cook PVIs for each of the four (soon to be five) vacant districts with special elections coming…
FL-1 (Gaetz seat): R+19
FL-6 (Waltz seat): R+14
NY-21 (Stefanik seat): R+9
TX-18 (Turner seat): D+23
AZ-7 (Grijalva seat): D+15
I’m not at all worried about holding on to Turner and Grijalva’s seats, but all three of the GOP vacancies are pretty tough – every one of those districts is considerably more red than any other Republican-leaning district currently held by a Democrat. But, these are all special elections, so a completely different dynamic is in play here. Stefanik’s seat appears to be the most vulnerable of the three GOP seats in play.
What’s the biggest red to blue seat flip in a special election in recent memory? I know the biggest blue to red seat flip this century was LA-2 in December 2008, in which indicted Democratic congressman Bill Jefferson let his ego get the best of him and hand the New Orleans based D+28 seat to the Republicans because Jefferson was a crook and everybody knew it (and he wound up spending 8 years in federal prison for his corruption). His GOP successor, Joseph Cao, entered office knowing full well that he would be one-term congressman, and sure enough he was. Cedric Richmond trounced him in the 2010 midterms by 30 points, notably as the rest of the Democratic Party was getting annihilated because of a well-executed messaging campaign scaring the shit out of seniors by spreading utter bullshit about the not-yet implemented but (at the time) still wildly unpopular ACA.
Geminid
@janesays: Former Rep. Conor Lamb won a western Pennsylvania special election in early 2018, and according to Wikipedia the district was rated R+11.
An NPR article said it was an R+20 district but that might have been based on Trump’s winning margin in 2016. The Republican who retired on account of a sex scandal, Dan(?) Murphy, ran unopposed in 2016 so there was no recent history of the district’s congressional vote.
Chat Noir
Late to the game, but in for $40!
Ksqrd
In for $250
WaterGirl
@Chat Noir: @Ksqrd:
Thank you both so much!
This gives me hope that we can meet the $15,000 goal today.
Good news in the midst of everything else that’s going on. :-)
WaterGirl
Just $35 left on our Angel match.
And just $685 more to meet our $15,000 goal!
lowtechcyclist
I just put in $100.
Even though we’ve reached goal on the other two, I put another $100 for the Wisconsin SC race, and $50 for the other FL race.
Now I’m gonna take a break. I’m kinda reeling from today’s vote. Back in a few days, probly.
WaterGirl
@lowtechcyclist: Yep, it’s bad. I think we should have held firm. sigh.
Thank you for the donations!