They ain’t doin a truce!
Accepting the “idea” of a ceasefire is not accepting a ceasefire. As predicted, Russia is delaying. apnews.com/article/russ…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Completely ridiculous demands. Let’s see if the White House is stupid enough to swallow them. “Putin … said that Russia wants guarantees that Ukraine will not mobilize or train soldiers, as well as won’t receive weapons during the 30-day ceasefire.” kyivindependent.com/putin-ready-…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Putin claims he supports 30‑day ceasefire, but immediately adds “nuances” that make it unworkable. And the biggest nuance is never trust Russia
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 1:02 PM
⚡️ Russia presents US with demands for possible Ukraine peace deal, Reuters reports.
These broad conditions are said to largely mirror those Russia has previously made to Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 13, 2025 at 3:16 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
BREAKING: Putin ready for ceasefire but demands ‘guarantees’ depriving Ukraine of aid
Russia has presented the U.S. with a list of demands for a potential deal to end the war against Ukraine and reset relations with Washington, Reuters reported on March 13, citing two undisclosed sources.
According to the sources, Russian and U.S. officials discussed these demands during face-to-face and virtual conversations over the past three weeks. These broad conditions are said to largely mirror those Russia has previously made to Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO.
The exact content of the list remains unclear, however, as does the issue of whether Russia is willing to engage in peace talks with Kyiv before these conditions are met.
Russia’s previously voiced conditions have included Ukraine permanently abandoning NATO aspirations, prohibiting foreign troop deployments on Ukrainian soil, and recognizing Crimea and four partially occupied regions — the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts — as Russian territory.
In June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted that Ukraine must withdraw from those four regions as a precondition for negotiations.
President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on March 12 that Ukraine would not recognize any occupied territories as part of Russia in any future peace agreement.
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim on Feb. 24 that Putin would allow European peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of a deal, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has rejected the idea.
Russia has also continued to push its long-standing demand that the U.S. and NATO address what it calls the “root causes” of the war, including the alliance’s eastward expansion.
Ukraine officially submitted its application to NATO in September 2022. Though NATO members pledged that Ukraine’s path toward membership is “irreversible” at the allied summit in Washington in 2024, the Trump administration has ruled out the accession in the foreseeable future.
Trump is waiting to hear from Putin on whether Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine has already accepted on the condition that Moscow does as well. Ukraine agreed to the proposal for the temporary truce during talks in Jeddah on March 11, after which Washington resumed military and intelligence support.
Putin’s response to the ceasefire proposal remains uncertain. Some U.S. officials and analysts fear that Moscow will use the temporary pause to deepen divisions between Washington, Kyiv, and their European allies while preparing for further offensives, Reuters writes.
The Washington Post reported on a proposal drafted for the Kremlin by a Moscow think tank close to the Federal Security Service (FSB) that lays out Russia’s potential maximalist demands for ending the war. These include a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine along the borders of Bryansk and Belgorod oblasts and a demilitarized zone in southern Ukraine.
The document, drafted in February, further calls for “the complete dismantling” of Ukraine’s current government and says that peace is unlikely before 2026. It is unclear what — if any — role this document plays in the Kremlin’s decision-making.
Western security officials told Bloomberg on March 10 that Putin has deliberately set “maximalist” demands on territorial concessions, peacekeepers, and Ukraine’s neutrality, knowing they are likely unacceptable to Kyiv and European nations.
Let’s not let Russia set the headlines folks. The correct headline is: “Russia does not agree on a ceasefire”.
— Anders Östlund (@andersostlund.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Stage 1 of the classic Putin approach: We’d like to, but there are just one or two issues [demands things he knows won’te be accepted]. Oh you won’t accept our entirely reasonable demands to address the historic wrongs done to us? Then it’s all your fault. *kills more civilians*
— Ruth Deyermond (@ruthdeyermond.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Putin has also sidelined LTG (ret) Kellogg in favor of Steve Witkoff.
Trump’s Ukraine envoy sidelined by Kremlin amid peace talks, NBC reports #Ukraine
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, was excluded from peace talks between Russia and the United States after the Kremlin said it did not want him present, NBC News reported on March 13, citing U.S. and Russian officials.
Although Kellogg was appointed by Trump to negotiate an end to Russia’s war, he has been notably absent from the recent peace talks in Jeddah and Riyadh. According to a Russian official that spoke to NBC News, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not want Kellogg included in the peace talks because he is perceived as being too sympathetic to Ukraine.
Kellogg previously co-authored a peace plan that would freeze the front line in Ukraine, take NATO accession off the table for an extended period, and partially lift sanctions imposed on Russia. His peace proposals also call for continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine as well as strong security guarantees to Kyiv to prevent further Russian aggression.
Kellogg previously visited Kyiv in late February for discussions with Ukrainian officials, but has since not been involved in a U.S. delegation in talks with Russia.
Notably, Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has emerged as a key negotiator with Russia. Witkoff, who previously traveled to Russia to negotiate the release of American teacher Marc Fogel, arrived in Moscow on March 13 to discuss the 30-day ceasefire in Ukraineproposed by the U.S.
According to experts who spoke with the Kyiv Independent last month, Kellogg may still have a role to play, particularly regarding U.S.-Europe relations. However, others suspect that Kellogg may have been fully sidelined and will no longer be involved in brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia.
Nice to see that Putin continues running US foreign, natsec, and defense policy for the eighth year in a row.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Are Not Setting Conditions That Complicate the Process – Russia Is – Address by the President
13 March 2025 – 21:13
I wish you health!
Today’s events. A visit from a delegation of the Dutch Parliament. I expressed my gratitude for their support, and we discussed further joint work within the European Union.
A visit from Türkiye’s delegation – government officials and business representatives. Our friends, our important partners. Many things truly unite our nations, and we are grateful to Türkiye for its support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as for backing our efforts for peace. Today, we discussed further cooperation, including mutual investments, the engagement of Turkish businesses in Ukraine, and how our entrepreneurs can expand their operations in Türkiye. This evening, together with representatives from Türkiye, together with representatives of all our Muslims – military and civilian, together with representatives of the Crimean Tatar people, we took part in an iftar. This has already become a good Ukrainian tradition of respect – respect for all those who observe Ramadan. And everyone at today’s iftar spoke about how important it is that prayers for peace and for Ukraine help us defend our country, our independence, and bring this war to an end as soon as possible, ensuring lasting security.
Especially now, as we have all heard from Russia Putin’s highly predictable and manipulative words in response to the idea of a ceasefire on the front lines – at this moment he is, in fact, preparing to reject it. Of course, Putin is afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war and keep killing Ukrainians. That’s why, in Moscow, they are surrounding the ceasefire idea with such preconditions that it either fails or gets dragged out for as long as possible. Putin does this often – he doesn’t say ‘no’ outright, but he drags things out and makes reasonable solutions impossible. We see this as yet another round of Russian manipulation.
There was a U.S. proposal for an unconditional ceasefire – in the air, at sea, and on the front lines. We in Ukraine accepted this proposal. We have heard from the American side that there is readiness to organize monitoring and verification. And this is absolutely feasible – with American and European capabilities. And during the ceasefire, to prepare answers to all questions about long-term security and a real, lasting peace, and to put a plan to end the war on the table. Ukraine is ready to work as quickly and constructively as possible. We have discussed this with U.S. representatives, and our European partners, as well as all our allies worldwide, are aware of it. We are not setting conditions that complicate the process – Russia is. As we have always said, the only one stalling, the only one being unconstructive, is Russia. They need this war. Putin has stolen years of peace and continues this war day after day. Now is the time to increase pressure on him. Sanctions must be applied – ones that will work. We will continue working with our American and European partners and with everyone in the world who wants peace – to force Russia to end this war.
And one more thing. I want to commend our warriors who, despite everything, hold their positions on the ground, giving diplomacy a chance. The 3rd Brigade of the National Guard, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, the 59th Separate Assault Brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces, and the 425th Separate Assault Regiment – I thank all of you, warriors! Thank you to each and every one who defends Ukraine, who helps, who cares for our country and our people, and who contributes to Ukraine’s resilience. We will surely secure a just peace for Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also attended an Iftar dinner.
President Takes Part in Iftar and Honors Warriors with State Awards
13 March 2025 – 21:44
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with Ukrainian warriors of the Islamic faith, leaders of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, representatives of the Muslim community and clergy, heads of foreign diplomatic missions, Turkish Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Turkish Minister of Agriculture and Forestry İbrahim Yumaklı, took part in an iftar – the evening meal observed during the holy month of Ramadan.
The Head of State noted that this year, the diplomatic efforts of Ukraine and its partners to advance a just and lasting peace and guarantee security for our country, have coincided with Ramadan. A successful meeting between Ukrainian and U.S. diplomatic representatives was recently held in Saudi Arabia.
“All of us in Ukraine hope that this international effort will succeed and that a ceasefire in the skies, at sea, and on the front lines will help bring peace. We are grateful to all our partners who support us. May the prayers of our people and our friends for peace and for Ukraine help fulfill the efforts of the United States, Europe, and the entire world to bring about peace and security – efforts of our warriors and all our citizens,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The President emphasized that Russia may prolong the war, so the world must be prepared to respond. For Ukraine, it is now crucial that the unity which helped our people endure is preserved and continues to strengthen Ukraine in times of diplomacy.
The Head of State also emphasized that Ukraine remembers all those in captivity, in temporarily occupied territories, and our Ukrainian Crimea.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy honored Ukrainian Muslim defenders with state awards.
In particular, he presented the Order of the Golden Star of the Hero of Ukraine to the family of fallen soldier Diliaver Seitkhaliliyev. Since March 2024, he had been carrying out combat missions as part of an assault unit in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. He took part in eliminating Russian occupiers on the outskirts of Toretsk. In January of this year, his unit came under heavy shelling near Pokrovsk. Diliaver Seitkhaliliyev saved four brothers-in-arms but sustained fatal injuries.
The President also presented warriors with the Orders of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, III class; the Orders “For Courage,” III class; the Orders of Danylo Halytskyi; and the Medals “For Military Service to Ukraine.”
The Head of State, together with the iftar participants, viewed an art exhibition dedicated to mosques and religious centers that were destroyed as a result of Russian aggression. The event took place in a building that had been damaged last September by a Russian drone attack.
Georgia:
Day 106 of #GeorgiaProtests. People are gathering now.
Came across a girl who’s reading @timothysnyder.bsky.social’s The Reconstruction of Nations.
I took her permission to post and she told me she had begun reading history due to the recent events in Georgia.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Yesterday’s protest at the Public Broadcaster ended with a pledge to hold on air debates on Friday between the Theater University Rector and the students suspended due to protests.
Now, they made it known that the students were reinstated.
Anything to avoid on air debates…— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 3:59 PM
“Based on the statements of students, lecturers, staff, and in the best interests of the University, the Rector has decided not to apply the most harsh measure of disciplinary responsibility against students – termination of status,” – States Theatre And Film University.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Another lecturer from the TSU Law Faculty, Tamar Tatanashvili, has been dismissed for supporting protests. She is the 3rd lecturer to be dismissed from TSU in the past five days for this reason. Giorgi Tsertsvadze and Irina Kherkheulidze were also dismissed.
📸 rfe/rl
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 5:12 AM
25-year-old Tornike Goshadze is among those arrested during the large-scale protests in Tbilisi. He, along with others, faces a prison term up to six years.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Extremely alarming – Chinese takeover of the eastern Black Sea region, and just kilometers away from a planned Russian naval base in the occupied Ochamchire town too.
The Georgian Dream is a security threat to the Euro-Atlantic security architecture.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 7:52 AM
The Baltics:
⚡️ Putin aide claims NATO ‘threatens’ Russia in Baltic region.
Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev claimed on March 13 that NATO is deliberately “escalating” tensions in the Baltic region.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 13, 2025 at 9:11 AM
His comments come amid NATO’s warnings that Russia may be ramping up hybrid operations in the region. Several undersea cables were damaged in recent months, leading the alliance to increase its presence in the Baltic Sea.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 13, 2025 at 9:12 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev claimed on March 13 that NATO is deliberately “escalating” tensions in the Baltic region, portraying the alliance as a threat to Russia’s security.
His comments come amid NATO’s warnings that Russia may be ramping up hybrid operations in the region. Several undersea cables were damaged in recent months, leading the alliance to increase its presence in the Baltic Sea.
Speaking to National Defense, a Russian military and political magazine, Patrushev alleged that NATO’s naval forces are working to “block” Russia in the Baltic while ignoring diplomatic engagement with Moscow.
Patrushev further accused the alliance, particularly the U.K., of provoking instability in the region. “The forecast of the situation in the Baltic allows us to draw attention to the deliberate fomentation of regional tensions by the naval forces of European countries of the alliance,” he said.
Patrushev also claimed, without evidence, that NATO is conducting cyberattacks on Russian ships‘ navigation systems to create maritime emergencies, including accidents and infrastructure failures.
While Russian-linked vessels have been detained in connection to damaged Baltic Sea cables, Western intelligence agencies remain divided on whether they were acts of sabotage or accidental damage.
Tensions between NATO and Russia have risen following Moscow’s all-out attack against Ukraine. Western leaders and intelligence agencies have warned of a potential large-scale war in Europe within the next five years, citing Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture.
I know it may be hard to imagine, but Patrushev is actually worse than Putin.
Finland:
⚡️Finland announces $217 million military aid package for Ukraine.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen confirmed that the package includes artillery ammunition, citing Ukraine’s urgent need for such supplies.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 13, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Canada:
⚡️ Ukraine receives $1.7 billion from Canada under G7 loan covered by Russian assets.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 13, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Sweden:
🇸🇪The Government of Sweden has authorized the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration to procure 18 Archer guns for donation to Ukraine.
FMV will also procure 5 Arthur artillery location radar systems for Ukraine. regeringen.se/sveriges-reg…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 11:45 AM
The US:
1/4. Ukraine has proposed a ceasefire without conditions. Russia will almost certainly reject this and try to dictate to Witkoff that the US help Russia achieve colonial control of Ukraine, something that Russia could never achieve on its own.
— Timothy Snyder (@timothysnyder.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 10:27 AM
2/4. Then we see if there is any actual US policy to get Russia to do what Ukraine has done, to accept a ceasefire, or if the US is an ally of Russian imperialism and this whole process has just been a cover story for American submission to Russian wishes.
— Timothy Snyder (@timothysnyder.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 10:27 AM
3/4. If Witkoff comes back from Russia endorsing Russian demands regarding Ukrainian sovereignty we have our answer.
— Timothy Snyder (@timothysnyder.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 10:27 AM
4/4. Russia has no more right to dictate anything that happens inside Ukraine than Ukraine has to dictate what happens inside Russia. And the “root causes” of this war are all inside Russia, as the Russians are reminding us.
— Timothy Snyder (@timothysnyder.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 10:27 AM
The US president said he would like to see a ceasefire from Russia and hopes that “Russia will do the right thing,” because if not, it will be a very “disappointing moment for the whole world.”
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Back in reality:
“Putin thinks Trump is an easy mark. And as a former KGB agent, Putin knows exactly how to manipulate him, and I think that’s what he’s been doing since the inauguration, if not before,” former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton told the Kyiv Independent.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 13, 2025 at 2:50 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Instead of approaching the war in Ukraine from a geopolitical or moral perspective, U.S. President Donald Trump is framing his policy on Russia through the lens of his personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton.
“Trump thinks Putin is his friend. He trusts Putin,” Bolton told the Kyiv Independent.
“Putin thinks Trump is an easy mark. And as a former KGB agent, Putin knows exactly how to manipulate him, and I think that’s what he’s been doing since the inauguration, if not before,” he explained.
Bolton served as the national security advisor to Trump from 2018-2019 during his first administration. Bolton’s 2020 memoir, “The Room Where It Happened,” offers a candid account of the tumultuous turn his working relationship with Trump took, highlighting his concerns about Trump’s ability to effectively lead, including his impulsive decision-making on complex policy issues and lack of understanding of the importance of a strong U.S. foreign policy.
In an interview with the Kyiv Independent, Bolton provided his insight on why Trump appears so eager to appease the Kremlin, why any U.S. attempt to align with Russia to deter China would be a “fantasy,” and the opportunities the U.S. has missed for more than a decade to deter Russian aggression not only in Ukraine but beyond.
This interview was conducted several hours before Putin signaled he was ready for a ceasefire on the condition that Ukraine doesn’t receive more military aid or build its military. It has been edited for length and clarity.
The Kyiv Independent: Trump has repeatedly claimed that negotiating with Russia is easier than with Ukraine. Despite Russia’s nightly attacks on Ukraine, he continues to insist that Putin wants peace. Why do you think Trump is so eager to cater to the Kremlin’s interests, especially when they have such maximalist demands?
John Bolton: Trump has said many times publicly that he believes if he has good relations with a foreign head of state, then the U.S. has good relations with that country. And the opposite is also true. If he has bad relations with a foreign head of state, U.S. relations with that country are bad. Trump thinks Putin is his friend. He trusts Putin. He has said in just the past few weeks, “Putin says he wants peace, and I trust him. I think if he didn’t want peace, he would tell me.” So that gives you a pretty good idea of how he sees Putin.
Now, I don’t think Putin thinks he’s Trump’s friend at all. I think Putin thinks Trump is an easy mark. And as a former KGB agent, Putin knows exactly how to manipulate him, and I think that’s what he’s been doing since the inauguration, if not before.
The notion that Russia is easy to deal with dates back to 2018, when Trump left Washington for the NATO summit — where he nearly withdrew from the alliance — before heading to Helsinki for a bilateral meeting with Putin. As he was leaving the White House to get on helicopter Marine One, he said to the assembled press, “You know, I’ve got this NATO meeting, then I’m going to meet Prime Minister Theresa May in London, then I’m going to meet Putin in Helsinki. You know, the meeting with Putin could be the easiest of them all. Who would think it?”
Well, there’s only one person who would think it, and it’s Trump. That was almost six years ago, and nothing has changed. The facts about Russia’s conduct in the war — being the aggressor from the start — simply don’t matter to Trump. After all, he believes in helping his friends.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has had a strained relationship with Trump — through no fault of his own or Ukraine’s — ever since the infamous “perfect phone call” in the summer of 2019, which ultimately led to Trump’s first impeachment. And Zelensky has tried very hard, I think, in the past six months to build a relationship with Trump, but as we saw in the catastrophe in the Oval Office a few weeks ago, it hasn’t worked. And there are people like U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, who I think have also decided they don’t like Zelensky and don’t like Ukraine — Vance once said in his 2022 Senate campaign, “I don’t care what happens to Ukraine.”
It’s an uphill struggle.
The Kyiv Independent: The Republican Party historically championed strong defense policies and deterrence against U.S. adversaries like Russia. What do you think accounts for the party’s shift in attitude toward Ukraine?
John Bolton: I believe a majority of Republicans actually still support Ukraine, certainly out in the country among Republican voters. And I think quietly behind the scenes, a majority in Congress do, too, but they’re intimidated by Trump.
They’re very worried that he will support candidates against them in a primary election to decide who the Republican nominee will be. And in districts that are very safely Republican, it doesn’t matter who the Democratic nominee is in November. It matters whether the incumbent House member, let’s say, can win against a primary opponent.
But I think the situation is beginning to change. More people are beginning to speak out. Trump’s tariff policies are causing a lot of concern, and that adds to concern about his 180-degree shift toward Russia in the Ukraine situation. If our European allies continue their efforts to clarify who’s at fault in Ukraine and what’s at stake, we’ll just have to keep fighting this battle day by day.
The Kyiv Independent: The Kremlin has recently said that Trump’s apparent foreign policy shift aligns with their interests. What damage does a U.S.-Russia alliance cause on the global stage?
John Bolton: It could come close to destroying NATO. Having watched Trump come very close to withdrawing from NATO at the Brussels summit in 2018, I saw more than I needed to see about how much he doesn’t like the institution — he hasn’t changed his view on that. But even before a formal withdrawal, he could do a lot that would debilitate NATO and really undermine the capabilities of the institution to defend its own members or its interests in other conflicts.
It’s a very dangerous course that he’s pursuing. They’re certainly watching it very carefully in Beijing, where they believe that if the U.S. and NATO won’t stand up for a country in the middle of Europe that’s been invaded, we won’t stand up for Taiwan, we won’t stand up for the Southeast Asian countries near the South China Sea. So it really does have global implications for U.S. security and that of our friends and allies, too.
The Kyiv Independent: Some argue that Trump sees a potential rapprochement with Russia as a way to deter China in the future. I’m curious about your thoughts on that, especially given the uncharacteristically supportive statements China has made for Ukraine recently. What is the dynamic that’s forming here?
John Bolton: It’s a fantasy to believe the U.S. can somehow use the conflict in Ukraine to separate Russia from China. In the abstract, separating Russia is a very good goal to have. But for reasons not having anything to do with Ukraine or the U.S., Russia and China have grown closer, and it’s really almost impossible to separate Russia from them today.
The China-Russia axis is far from perfect, but in the case of the Ukraine war, China has been a considerable assistance to Russia. They have laundered sanctioned Russian financial assets through their own opaque financial system out into global markets. They’ve significantly increased purchases of Russian oil and gas. They’ve talked about building new pipeline capacity, which from China’s point of view would be a plus so they don’t have to lift oil in the Persian Gulf and risk taking it across the Indian Ocean. And they’ve provided a lot of political cover for Russia during this war, which they would expect reciprocity for if they went against Taiwan or did something in the South China Sea.
There are still differences of interest between Russia and China. This is not the Cold War Sino-Soviet alliance that had an ideological bond. And obviously China is the partner in charge now, not Russia. So it’s not exactly the same, but I think the idea that somehow Russia could be pulled away from China as part of a settlement in Ukraine is totally unrealistic.
I don’t think China has any good intentions in mind for Ukraine, either — they see it as something obviously Russia wants to have.
There’s much more at the link.
As you all know, I’m not a fan of Bolton. But in this case his assessment of Trump and Putin is correct.
Back to Ukraine.
Our poll of Ukraine is now in (N=1000). Mr Zelensky approval at >70%, very few want elections before peace. But also suggests 58% will not want Ukraine to concede territory, and that many also expect the war to end within the year ->
www.economist.com/europe/2025/… by @olliecarroll.bsky.social— Sondre Ulvund Solstad (@sondreus.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 6:47 AM
From The Economist:
Donald Trump delivered such a dressing-down to Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office at the end of last month that some thought the relationship would never recover. A potential ceasefire agreement struck on March 11th in Saudi Arabia may have brought them back from the brink. But in any case, the blow-up does not seem to have done the Ukrainian president much harm at home. Like Canada’s Mark Carney, Mr Zelensky is finding that being attacked by Mr Trump is great for one’s ratings. A new telephone poll by Ipsos of 1,000 Ukrainians, commissioned by The Economist, shows that he commands overwhelming support in the wake of his falling-out with Trumpland. More than seven in ten Ukrainians now say they approve of Mr Zelensky’s work. Eight in ten say he is still Ukraine’s legitimate president, and reject the idea of elections while fighting continues. Over seven in ten still trust him to lead negotiations. Even more striking, the poll suggests that Mr Zelensky would win an election if one were held today, with Valery Zaluzhny, his popular former top general, in distant second place.
Telling numbers on how Ukrainians see Russia’s war aims:
• 66% say Russia wants to destroy Ukraine and its people.
• Of them, 28% say it seeks genocide, and 38% believe it wants to seize most or all of Ukraine’s territory and erase its statehood
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 5:19 PM
What if Ukraine decides to fight on without America?
“If we surrender it will not improve our situation. It will make it much worse.”
Free link: on.ft.com/4iqvuey
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) March 13, 2025 at 7:26 AM
From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
Oleh Kiper, the governor of Ukraine’s Odesa region, is bone-tired — and with good reason. Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Black Sea port, traditionally the beating heart of the Ukrainian economy, is miraculously functioning, with ships slipping in and out. But it is a shadow of its former bustling self and the city is still facing relentless night-time attacks by Russian missiles and drones.
“They hit our energy sector all the time,” says Kiper. “A lot of power stations have been damaged. We need better air defences but we don’t have enough. And the enemy are continuously upgrading their drones.”
The residents of Odesa, he adds, are “exhausted”.
Kiper’s litany of woes and his very visible fatigue reflect Ukraine’s ordeal as it tries to hold off its far more powerful invader into a fourth year.
A possible respite is in sight after Ukraine on Tuesday agreed to a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire — as long as Russia reciprocates.
In return, Washington agreed to resume deliveries of military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, having suspended them last week to pressure Kyiv into reaching a peace deal with Moscow. If Russia agrees to a truce, it could pave the way for more substantive settlement talks.
But there is no sign that Russia is willing to compromise on its maximalist goals of subjugating Ukraine.
Many Ukrainians would balk at any deal that looks like capitulation and are prepared to fight on, even without US support. Many suspect that even if they reach a settlement, Russia will not honour it and war will resume.
“If America leaves us, we don’t have any choice but to keep going,” the governor says. “People like to ask me about ‘Odesa after the war’, but we need to focus not on the future but the present. To finish the war, we have to keep fighting. If we stop now, sooner or later the war will come to Europe.”
Kiper’s stoicism is echoed across Ukraine, although opinion polls make clear Ukrainians would welcome an end to the war. A growing number, up to a third, would accept some form of a compromise — but not if the settlement left them exposed to future Russian attacks.
“Like Churchill said in that movie Darkest Hour,” says Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of the parliamentary committee on foreign policy. “‘You cannot negotiate with a tiger when you have your head in its mouth.’”
So can Ukraine really hold out without American support? Ukrainian and western strategists concede it would be far harder to prosecute the war if President Donald Trump ends once and for all American military aid. In particular, the loss of American intelligence and surveillance, Patriot air-defence batteries and the Starlink satellite system, which is used to synchronise battlefield communications, would be huge setbacks.
“If America abandons us, it will be extremely hard,” says Pavlo, a combat medic, whose nom de guerre is Chewbacca. “Without Starlink it would be a very difficult situation. If they took it back it would be a betrayal of democracy and liberty.”
When asked how long Kyiv could hold out without Washington, Ukrainian soldiers, analysts and officials tend to reply “at least six months”. But they argue it could be longer if Europe moves decisively to fill the gap, and domestic arms production intensifies. They also point to the immense price in money and lives that Russia has paid to win territory.
“We will not stop fighting,” says Merezhko, whose defiance captures the current mood despite the start of peace talks. “The situation on the frontline is not all doom and gloom. The Russians cannot take over big cities; they do not have the manpower, and they too are exhausted. The worst-case scenario is that they will be able to take a little more territory. Somehow we will survive.”
More at the link.
The Ukrainian FPV was about to intercept Russian Molniya-2 kamikaze drone but it fell on its own.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The Ukrainian made 2S22 «Bohdana» at work.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Kharkiv:
Four russian kamikaze drones struck Kharkiv tonight, targeting three neighborhoods in the city. According to officials, seven people, including two children, suffered acute stress reactions.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 6:48 PM
People in Kharkiv have very little warning about upcoming attacks due to our proximity to russia.
So we can’t reach shelter in time.
This is how people react to drones flying overhead (torn the sound on):
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast:
Russia’s attacks on Donetsk Oblast in the past 24 hours: three killed, 14 injured, over 200 homes damaged.
Kostiantynivka suffered 21 strikes, including 18 bombs—eight wounded, two more people still trapped under the rubble. Among the injured are two children in Druzhkivka.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 5:10 AM
In Kostiantynivka, a woman spent nearly a day under the rubble: rescuers pulled her out alive.
Nearly 20 hours under the ruins of a destroyed nine-story building – a horror that a woman had to endure after devastating russian airstrikes on the city.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Rescuers, together with police officers, continuously cleared the rubble, making titanic efforts to find people. And this struggle paid off – the woman was pulled out alive! She was immediately handed over to paramedics of the National Police and transported to the hospital. – SES reports
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The Pokrovsk direction:
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the village of Shevchenko in the Pokrovsk direction.”
— The hedgehog (@the-hedgehog.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Kherson Oblast:
Russian aviation struck Kherson region with 10 guided bombs.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 2:24 PM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
⚡ Russia suspected of killing 5 Ukrainian POWs in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets referred to a video circulating on social media that purportedly shows unarmed Ukrainian soldiers killed after being captured by Russian troops.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 13, 2025 at 4:12 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian forces allegedly executed five Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on March 13.
Lubinets referred to a video circulating on social media that purportedly shows unarmed Ukrainian soldiers killed after being captured by Russian troops.
According to Ukrainian activist Serhii Sternenko, a video of the suspected execution was recorded in Kursk Oblast, near the village of Kozacha Loknya.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.
“We once again see a cynical disregard for international humanitarian law on the part of the Russian army,” Lubinets said, adding that he had sent letters to the U.N. and the International Committee of the Red Cross to document the suspected war crime.
The news comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first visit to Kursk Oblast on March 12 since Ukraine launched its cross-border incursion into the region in August 2024.
During the visit, which took place amid a rapid Russian advance, Putin declared that Ukrainian military personnel captured in the region “will be treated as terrorists.”
Ukraine has previously documented widespread violations of the Geneva Conventions by Russian forces, including the execution of 177 captured Ukrainian soldiers as of mid-December 2024.
The U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported a sharp rise in executions of Ukrainian POWs, documenting 79 extrajudicial killings across 24 separate incidents since August 2024.
Visual evidence of such atrocities continues to emerge, reinforcing concerns over Moscow’s systematic violations of international law.
Kaluga Oblast, Russia:
Ukrainian intelligence drones targeted a UAV production site near Kaluga last night.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 7:39 AM
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Ukrainian military intelligence drones (HUR) attacked a camouflaged drone production facility in Kaluga Oblast late on March 12, HUR sources confirmed for the Kyiv Independent.
Drone production lines were located on the grounds of an aerated concrete plant in the village of Obukhovo in Kaluga Oblast‘s Dzerzhinsky district, one of the sources claimed.
Kyiv has carried out regular long-range drone strikes against military and industrial facilities in Russia‘s rear, seeking to undermine its ability to wage its all-out war.
The statement comes after Kaluga Oblast Governor Vladislav Shapsha said that 25 drones were downed over the region overnight, with drone wreckage setting fire to an unspecified industrial facility in Dzerzhinsky district.
One employee suffered minor injuries, and the fire has been extinguished, according to Shapsha.
Locals reported powerful explosions and a fire at the plant on social media. Drone debris also damaged a cell tower and a power line in the Khvastovichsky district, the southernmost part of Kaluga Oblast, Shapsha said.
Russian air defenses downed 77 drones overnight, including 30 over Bryansk Oblast, six over Kursk and Voronezh oblasts each, and five over Rostov and Belgorod oblasts each, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed.
An unspecified infrastructure facility was also damaged on the evening of March 12 in Voronezh Oblast, a region bordering Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast, Governor Alexander Gusev said on his Telegram channel.
The targeted facility was part of the region’s gas infrastructure, the Baza Telegram channel reported, citing residents.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
Tuapse Oil Refinery, russia 🔥
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 8:39 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Stray cats and dogs take up residence with Ukrainian troops in frontline trenches
#MenWithCats
— Greg Morosoff (@gregmorosoff.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Open thread!
J. Arthur Crank
Thanks Adam. I love that title.
Umm….
Adam L Silverman
@J. Arthur Crank: You’re welcome.
Wombat Probability Cloud
Great title, and thanks for your yeomanly efforts.
West of the Rockies
As ever (it’s starting to feel like forever), thank you for your info-packed posts, Adam.
I don’t know how Putin looks at his ugly face in the mirror, knowing that everyday his orders kill people–children.
John S.
Oy vey, what a lousy day. And I got to top it off by lighting a yarzheit for my brother.
Thanks for all you do, Adam.
Steve Crickmore
After Trump has deliberately weakened Ukraine, Putin has brushed off a cease-fire. Why wouldn’t he, knowing that Trump, has been loath to conceal his ’tilt’. Headline in tomorrow morning’s London Times, ‘Hopes of an immediate ceasefire fade as Putin highlights sticking points’. The main sticking point being that Putin is determined to wipe Ukraine off the map.
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Wombat Probability Cloud: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@West of the Rockies: You’re welcome too.
Adam L Silverman
@John S.: May his memory be a blessing.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: @AlaskaReader: You’re both welcome.
Adam L Silverman
It’s been a long day. I’m racking out. Catch everyone on the flip.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam.
Maxim
Adam, I do not know how you have maintained your sanity, let alone your sense of humor, doing these updates night after night. Thank you, sir.
YY_Sima Qian
Hegseth disbanding the Office of Net Assessment:
The ONA has a checkered history, but:
Bill Arnold
That reads like a confession.
Should we (I will) now assume that one or more Russian intelligence services have backdoors mechanisms in ghost fleet ship automation systems, for support of remote ops like anchor drop-and-drags? And that Russia regularly attempts to remotely control the systems on non-Russian ships?
YY_Sima Qian
Huh? Has the NATO Secretary General historically been the US’ puppet? (Click the link for the video):