Almost all of eastern, central, and northern Ukraine is under air raid alert for drone swarms as of 8:40 PM EDT/2:40 AM local time in Ukraine. The alert maps are showing a drone strike explosion in Chernihiv Oblast at 8:34 AM EDT/2:34 AM local time.
Today in the truce that isn’t:
While Trump has been claiming that Putin is eager for a deal, US spy agencie have been telling Trump that is not the case.
@ellenwapo.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec…
— Greg Miller (@gregpmiller.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 5:40 AM
From The Washington Post: (emphasis mine)
Classified U.S. intelligence reports, including one earlier this month, cast doubt on Vladimir Putin’s willingness to end the war against Ukraine, assessing that the Russian president has not veered from his maximalist goal of dominating his western neighbor, according to people familiar with the analysis.
One of the secret assessments distributed to Trump administration policymakers, dated March 6, says Putin remains determined to hold sway over Kyiv, a person familiar with the document said. Like others in this article, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified intelligence.
The reports are not intended to assess President Donald Trump’s high-stakes diplomacy to end the three-year Ukraine war or the prospects of a 30-day ceasefire proposal that U.S. and Ukrainian officials agreed on this week. But they underscore the tough task Trump and his national security team face, and raise the question of whether the White House is misreading Putin’s willingness to seek peace.
Putin on Thursday reacted cautiously to the ceasefire proposal. While not rejecting it outright, he hinted that Moscow might place conditions on any agreement. The Russian leader spoke in advance of a planned meeting in Moscow with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the ceasefire plan. Russian troops, meanwhile, appear to be making significant progress in ousting Ukraine from a sliver of territory in Russia’s Kursk province that Kyiv had hoped to use as a territorial bargaining chip.
Some current and former U.S. officials said that the Russian leader, even if he agreed to a temporary truce, would use it to rest and refit his troops — and was likely to break the terms of the deal by creating a provocation that he would blame on Ukraine.
Other officials said the reports were more cautious on what peace terms Putin might accept. But they acknowledged that there is no sign Putin has relented in his demand that Ukraine be brought into Russia’s security and economic orbit. “He has a long-standing desire to restore ‘Mother Russia,’” one official said.
The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
“I don’t believe a ceasefire or even a truce or a treaty will be an end to the story,” said Eugene Rumer, a former U.S. intelligence official and Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This is the new permanent standoff between Russia and the rest of Europe.”
Other analysts said they thought the talks could yield a positive outcome if Washington and Europe play their cards right.
“For Putin to stop fighting, he has to think he can win in a negotiation,” said Eric Ciaramella, who is also a former U.S. intelligence official and Russia expert at Carnegie. “But that doesn’t mean he will win. The key to making a favorable and lasting ceasefire deal will be setting up security arrangements for Ukraine that would allow it to rebuild its military strength and deter a renewed attack.”
While it is unclear whether Trump was personally briefed on the March 6 intelligence report, the person familiar said it is the type of analysis that has traditionally been shared with the president.
Some of the U.S. assessments on Putin’s intransigence have appeared to irk Trump, another person familiar with the matter said. Indeed, Trump and his aides in recent days have raised the prospect of stiff new sanctions on Russia if it refuses to agree to end the war. They have not specified what those sanctions would be, though Trump on Wednesday said they “could be devastating.”
“The president desperately wants a deal,” the person said. “And the Russians are showing no signs of relenting. They’re ramping up their demands.”
Meanwhile, a European intelligence official, citing intelligence gathered within the past month, said officials in Moscow believe that Trump is weak, lacks a core set of principles and may be open to manipulation.
The European intelligence official said that if a permanent ceasefire is achieved, Moscow probably will revert to “hybrid” or nonmilitary means of undermining Ukraine, as it did in 2014 after it invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine and on through the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Those means include economic and diplomatic coercion; penetrating Ukrainian elites, business circles, security services and the military; and exerting influence through the Russian church in Ukraine, the official said. Russia’s leaders have long painted Zelensky as a puppet of the West and tried to undermine his legitimacy.
“The 2022 invasion happened because the hybrid tools did not bring results,” the European official said.
More at the link.
I want to highlight this bit:
“The president desperately wants a deal,” the person said. “And the Russians are showing no signs of relenting. They’re ramping up their demands.”
The desperation is coming off of Trump in waves. He wants to be seen as strong, hence the dominance theater in the oval office when President Zelenskyy came to visit. Unfortunately, Trump has demonstrated over and over and over again, for the better part of a decade, that he’s weak in relation to Putin and desperate for Putin’s attention, approval, and to do some sort of deal. Any deal would do. Let’s be honest, Trump is so weak he got “shushed” by Musk’s four year old human shield.
Truth.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Continue Our Work to Unite Absolutely Everyone Who Can Truly Help, Who Can Strengthen Diplomacy and Bring Peace Closer – Address by the President
14 March 2025 – 19:55
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today has been a day full of diplomacy and negotiations that could bring us closer to peace. Now on the table is the U.S. proposal for unconditional ceasefire in the sky, at sea, and on the frontlines. Ukraine accepts this proposal, and from here, we can begin a swift move towards guaranteed security, towards the end of this war and towards a reliable peace. Our teams worked very well at the meeting in Saudi Arabia, and contacts with the American side are ongoing. We, Ukrainians, are very committed to a constructive approach. And it is still crucial to pressure Russia into being constructive. To put an end to all these Russian manipulations that could only prolong the war. I am grateful to everyone who is supporting Ukraine now, who is supporting our efforts and steps toward peace.
Today, I heard many right words about the need to end the war. I heard a lot of approval for Ukraine’s position. We continue our work to unite absolutely everyone who can truly help, who can strengthen diplomacy and bring peace closer. Today, I spoke with Cardinal Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State. I thanked him for his support, and for his prayers for Ukraine and for peace. The Vatican is very supportive of the realistic possibility of saving lives through a ceasefire. We also discussed the liberation of our people from Russian captivity, the return of deported adults and our abducted children. Today, I also spoke with Patriarch Bartholomew. He also expressed his support for our state and our people. Support for our diplomacy. I thank His All-Holiness. I have just spoken with American Pastor Franklin Graham, President of the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association. I am grateful for his support and prayers for peace, for Ukraine. He is a very wise man. And we really appreciate such voices in the United States of America – voices for peace. Today, I also spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron – Emmanuel, as always, has a clear knowledge of all the details and offers good ideas. We analyzed the state of diplomacy today, the options available. We discussed the technical aspects of monitoring the ceasefire, possible next steps in diplomacy and in protecting our people and our Europe. Security guarantees, the situation on the ground, possible developments in the situation – in all of this, we have France’s clear support. We are grateful. Today, I also have a scheduled conversation with President Erdogan of Türkiye – I want to inform the President about our position on the ceasefire and our readiness for quick and honest diplomacy aimed at ending the war. Tomorrow, a Summit of European partners will take place: we will present our position and real information about current developments – developments on the frontline, in the Kursk region, and in all our contacts with partners. Security is a priority. Peace is a priority. Ukraine’s independence is a priority. I thank everyone who is helping! And today I honored our warriors with state awards. I am proud of all our heroes!
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Day 107. Last several days, there were actually fewer protesters on Rustaveli than during the coldest winter nights, and while we all know that public sentiments have not changed, we were still a bit concerned.
But tonight, since everyone knew that most people would be at the Public Broadcaster 1/2— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 2:14 PM
to support suspended Theater Uni students that demanded air time, many came to Rustaveli so that the continuity would be there.
This underscored once again that we have people ready, we just need a better internal political strategy, which I hope will be improving within weeks. 2/2
#GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 2:14 PM
1/ A protest rally was held in front of Georgian Public Broadcaster today, continuing almost non-stop since November 28. Protesters demand that GPB, which receives over 100 million GEL from the budget, report the truth instead of GD propaganda.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM
2/ Today, those gathered near GPB expressed support for Theater University students whose status was suspended for participating in the protests but reinstated yesterday. Today GPB gave them an airtime.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM
When instead of hanging out in a bar your friend group at college is bonded by liberating the nation. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 3:21 PM
🧵1. Russian Civil Activists in Georgian Prison
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
2.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
3.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
4.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
5.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
6.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
3 actors from the Rustaveli Theatre who expressed support on stage for those arrested during protests were removed from the spectacle.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Finland:
In Finland, commander of the Neo-Nazi Rusich unit Yan Petrovsky (aka “Vojislav Torden” lol) has been sentenced to life in prison for war crimes committed against Ukrainian soldiers in 2014, including mutilating one’s face with a kolovrat before he died, among others
— Michael Colborne (@colborne.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Portugal:
Portugal is reconsidering its purchase of F-35 fighter jets, a program estimated to cost around $6 billion, and is looking at European alternatives.https://www.outono.net/elentir/2025/03/14/portugal-reconsiders-the-purchase-of-the-f-35-due-to-the-turn-in-us-foreign-policy/
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 3:53 AM
Moscow on the Potomac:
EXCLUSIVE: Investigators tracking Ukranian children abducted and taken to Russia have had to stop work as the Conflict Observatory’s funding is cut by Elon Musk’s DOGE.
The funding freeze impacts intelligence sharing w Ukraine and the efforts to bring these kids home
inews.co.uk/news/world/m…— Sanya Burgess (@sanyaburgess.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 8:19 AM
From iNews:
The world-leading unit helping to rescue Ukrainian children stolen by Russia has been axed amid Elon Musk’s slashing of US government spending, The i Paper can reveal.
Thousands of children have been removed from Ukraine and taken to Russia during the conflict, in a campaign of “unlawful deportation”.
The US government has been funding a specialist team based at Yale University, who have used open source technology to trace the lost children and help repatriate them.
But this team, which has already helped to locate hundreds of children, has now had its funding paused, amid tech tycoon Musk’s chainsaw slashing of the federal budget via the so-called department of government efficiency (Doge).
Donald Trump ally Peter Marocco has been leading on cuts to US foreign aid and development programmes, reportedly visiting offices alongside members of Doge. While Musk has not personally been overseeing individual funding freezes he has been setting the strategy and tone for deep government spending cuts in Washington.
There have been more than 19,500 reports of “unlawful deportation and forced transfer of children”, with campaigners claiming Russia is taking the children to erase Ukrainian culture and indoctrinate the younger generation into a pro-Russia mindset. Mykola Kuleba, founder of the charity Save Ukraine, previously said: “Russia is stealing our future.”
Around 1,240 children have so far been repatriated, according to Bring Kids Back UA, an initiative launched by Volodymyr Zelensky to rescue all children from deportation and occupation.
When the search team gathers evidence, it passes the lead to Ukrainian authorities to attempt to bring back the children. The i Paper has confirmed that Yale Humanitarian Research Lab’s data has been used to reunite some families.
The decision to cut funding could now harm Ukraine’s capabilities to reunite more children with their families.
A report from the Yale team, published in December, said: “Russia’s program [sic] of coerced adoption and fostering of children from Ukraine has been intentionally and directly authorized [sic] by Putin and senior officials of the Russian Federation.”
More at the link.
‘Putin first made the claim earlier in the week when he said Ukrainian troops had been surrounded during a retreat from Russia’s Kursk region, and had the choice to “surrender or die”. Trump repeated Putin’s claim’ www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 2:33 PM
From The Guardian:
Vladimir Putin has praised Donald Trump for “doing everything” to improve relations between Moscow and Washington, after Trump said the US has had “very good and productive discussions” with Putin in recent days.
Putin told a meeting of his security officials that improved relations with the US were now on the agenda. “We know that the new administration headed by President Trump is doing everything to restore at least something of what was basically destroyed by the previous US administration,” he said.
Putin also responded to an appeal by Trump to save the lives of “thousands” of surrounded Ukrainian soldiers, and said he would heed it as long as the soldiers surrendered. But no evidence has emerged to back up Putin and Trump’s claims that there is a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian troops, a claim explicitly denied by military heads in Kyiv.
The exchange of warm words between Trump and Putin is likely to cause further alarm in Kyiv and European capitals, already spooked by signs of the new US administration cosying up to Moscow while exerting pressure on Ukraine.
The remarks came after Steve Witkoff, Trump’s close ally and special envoy to the Middle East, held late-night talks with Putin on Thursday to discuss the US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in the war on Ukraine.
Kyiv has already accepted the proposal, while Putin on Thursday set out a series of sweeping conditions that would need to be met before Russia would agree to the truce, which includes the condition that Ukraine should neither rearm nor mobilise during the 30-day truce.
In a post on Truth Social on Friday, however, Trump said there was a “very good chance” the war between Russia and Ukraine could “finally come to an end”.
Trump also said he had appealed to Putin to save the lives of “thousands of Ukrainian troops” supposedly surrounded by the Russian army. Putin first made the claim earlier in the week when he said Ukrainian troops had been surrounded during a retreat from Russia’s Kursk region, and had the choice to “surrender or die”.
Trump repeated Putin’s claim, writing that thousands of troops had been “completely surrounded” during the retreat. He wrote: “I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared. This would be a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II. God bless them all.”
Later, in a speech at the justice department in Washington on Friday, Trump appeared to chide Ukraine for seizing Kursk. “First of all you don’t want to pick on somebody that’s a lot larger than you, even with the money,” he said. “There’s a lot of money that we gave them and a lot of equipment. We make the best military equipment in the world.
“But even with all of that, it’s unbelievable. Right now you have a lot of Ukrainian soldiers that are encircled and in grave danger, and I’ve asked them not to kill those soldiers please, not to kill those soldiers. We don’t want them killed.”
Putin told his security council he had heard Trump’s appeal, and said the lives of Ukrainian troops would be spared if they surrendered. Ukrainian military and independent analysts, however, denied there was an encirclement of troops.
Ukrainian general staff wrote in a statement published on their media channels: “Reports of the alleged ‘encirclement’ of Ukrainian units by the enemy in the Kursk region are false and fabricated by the Russians for political manipulation and to exert pressure on Ukraine and its partners. There is no threat of encirclement of our units.”
Ukrainian security sources, independent military analysts and even pro-Russian Telegram channels disputed the encirclement claims by Putin and Trump.
Soldiers fighting in the region say a staged withdrawal has been under way for two weeks, and while many soldiers have faced a dangerous and challenging route to withdraw, they do not believe there is a mass encirclement of troops. “After seven months, we simply withdrew. There was no encirclement,” one senior security official said on Thursday.
Michael Kofman, a military analyst at Carnegie Endowment, described the claims of a mass encirclement as “fiction”.
Some influential Russian pro-war military bloggers have cast doubt in recent days of the encirclement claims by Russian officials, saying none of the signs of such an action have been visible.
Our team has a good understanding of the situation in Kursk. There are no encircled troops. The retreat was generally organized but occasionally chaotic. There is no threat of encirclement, and no evidence suggests otherwise. It’s wise to rely on intelligence, not Putin’s word
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Claims that thousands are encircled in Kursk dangerously align with Putin’s staged narrative and Russian propaganda—there is no such encirclement
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Back to Ukraine:
After arming FPV drones with shotguns, Ukraine now testing a drone armed with an unguided aviation rocket.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 5:03 AM
Four Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence systems targeted by FPV drones.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Kryvyi Rih:
Russian forces launched another attack on Kryvyi Rih, striking civilian facilities with missiles. So far, at least 11 civilians are reported wounded.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih tonight
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast:
Last night, russian troops targeted a hospital in Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast, with a drone strike, setting it ablaze. As rescue workers fought to save lives, they struck again—a deliberate attack on both the wounded and those trying to save them.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 3:57 AM
A hospital in Zolochiv, Kharkiv region, was hit by russian drones overnight, causing significant damage and injuring a medical worker. The initial strike ignited the hospital’s roof, and a subsequent attack occurred 40 minutes later. Yet another double tap aimed at rescuers.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
Today, passengers aboard the train to Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, marveled at a breathtaking, awe-inspiring landscape unfolding beyond their windows, thanks to Ukrainian UAVs.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Russian oil refinery in Tuapse was targeted by drones once again tonight.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 4:16 AM
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia:
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones continue to strike Russian military targets deep in enemy territory. Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region: the moment of a UAV attack on a military training ground was recorded just moments ago.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 14, 2025 at 8:14 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
I will never stop sharing how much I respect the Ukrainian people and their cats.
— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@lorenzothecat.bsky.social) March 10, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Look at that magnificent hunk of a badass Ukrainian cat.
— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@lorenzothecat.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Open thread!
What’s At Stake in Wisconsin on April 1
wjca
Yeah, but those are just American intelligence agencies. And Trump has long since demonstrated that he’ll take Putin’s word over theirs.
Gin & Tonic
Over the last 10+ years there have been a lot of things that have distressed me; a lot of things that have angered me – most of them I haven’t written about, because, really, what good will it do. But the defunding of Yale’s HRL is something that makes me want to murder people, slowly, with my bare hands, so I can watch them die. I’m only grateful that current events are very unlikely to position me within arm’s reach of Elon Musk’s neck.
Chris
I seem to recall that the whole point of the F-35 program was that it was supposed to be the twenty-first century fighter for the entire Western alliance, partly because getting so many countries involved in the program would help defray its cost. Since depending on the U.S. for something like fighter jets is now proving to be a liability, I expect (heck, I hope) that more people will follow Portugal’s lead here, which isn’t great news for the American defense industry.
I also seem to recall that the original intent was to sell… between two and three thousand of them? According to the Interwebs, a bit north of one thousand of them have been built, so if purchases dry up now, we’re going to fall very very short of that goal.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
matt
@Chris: thats the price of having a scummy treacherous national leader.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
J. Arthur Crank
Thanks Adam.
I don’t think we need spy agencies to tell us Putin doesn’t want peace.
Likewise, this seems obvious that Moscow believes this, because Trump objectively is dumb and lacking in core principles, and can be manipulated. No spy agency is needed here.
J. Arthur Crank
@Gin & Tonic: Yeah, this particular cut is especially bad. Words fail.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Harrison Wesley
And now Trump says that his promise to end the war in 24 hours was “just sarcasm.” Whatever, dude.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f35-blair-trump-1.7484477
pieceofpeace
Thanks, Adam.
wjca
@J. Arthur Crank:
May? May?!?!?
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Gin & Tonic: Likewise.😡
Good on Mark Carney and Bill Blair.
Thank you Adam.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
PS Ukraine needs to bomb Sochi out of existence and drop that damn bridge already. There, I said it.
Darkrose
Other intelligence officials said that it’s possible water may still be wet, though they have been unable to confirm if the Pope is still Catholic, or to determine if JD Vance still shits in the woods.
wjca
Only if Peter Thiel say to.
RepubAnon
I’m sure Putin is eager for a ceasefire – as soon as he extracts enough concessions from Trump.
TxTiger
My theory about Trump’s desperation is that he wants to receive a Nobel Peace Prize so he can call himself better than Obama.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@RepubAnon: I also, it’s a bit pointless bother with a deal with Trump because Trump’s word is useless. I am sure the Russians notice Trump broke his own trade arrangements with Canada and Mexico.
m.j.
Are the Saudis still involved here?
Am I supposed to think they are the level heads with some weight to throw around?
What’s the angle?
wjca
It’s OK to deal with Trump, provided you get what you want up front. Just never expect him to honor an agreement after he’s gotten what he wants out of it.
Doesn’t matter if you’re a small contractor working on one of his buildings, or Canada and Mexico signing a trade deal in his first term. Once he’s gotten his, he’ll stiff you just because it’s how he rolls. The size of the deal is beside the point; it’s the principle of the thing.
bjacques
@Jay: this is good news for Raytheon.
Bulgakov
I wonder if there are any Democrats or corporate media organizations who would share this “news” with the voters – “officials in Moscow believe that Trump is weak, lacks a core set of principles and may be open to manipulation.”
WTFGhost
Wow. The pResident is *desperate* and Moscow keeps ramping up their demands. Wow. No one ever, in the history of EVER, thought that you should keep making demands when the other guy is DESPERATE.
What’s even better, you just *know* Putin is seeking the one demand that would absolutely *tank* any chance of the Nobel committee even raising the nomination. He’s not the kind of guy who’d string Trump along, and give him what he wants. He’s more like Trump, string him along, then, get him to bend over an open manhole, and KICK.
It would be funny, if I lived in Australia or something. Hey, Aussies, we tricked Trump into… okay, fuck it, we didn’t trick him, he just blabbed. But, on the upside: nuclear subs!
(Sorry. I needed a place to vent about how stupid and cruel this timeline is.)I