Thanks to everyone for the well wishes last night. Again, it was just a sinus headache, I’m not dying. But thank you all again.

It was a busy day today, so I’m going to just stick the basics for the most part so I can go rack out.

It is very, very hard to make policy, develop strategies to achieve the policy objectives, or do anything else in the national security and foreign policy world if you’re not dealing with reality.

Create an imaginary encirclement.
> Save imaginary soldiers from the imaginary encirclement.
> Gain reputation points. Profit.✅️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 4:57 PM

This is also not based in a lot of reality either:

What???

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 2:47 PM

At one level it will be exceedingly hard for Ukraine to militarily reclaim Crimea. It’s not impossible and a lot of the constraints on Ukraine were actually imposed by US so as not to aggravate Putin by crossing one of his red lines. Leaving aside Putin’s control of US foreign, defense, and natsec policy for the better part of the past decade, preemptively ceding Crimea to Russia rewards Putin and condemns the Crimeans to the horror that is life under Russian rule.

Leniie Umerova, a Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar activist, recounted her nearly two-year imprisonment in Russia after being abducted by Russian security forces while attempting to visit her sick father in Crimea. She went through physical and psychological abuse, interrogations and solitary confinement

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 5:03 PM

Around 14,000 Ukrainian civilians are currently behind held in Russian prisons

“This is more than a war for territory.This is the battle between light&darkness… Between democracy and tyranny. And #Ukraine is still fighting. And we are fighting for the win,” Leniie told the European parliament.

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 5:07 PM

It also sends another message that the US under Trump and his owner/employer Musk is perfectly okay with states grabbing and keeping the territory of other states. What this communicates is that there is no such thing as a fixed border, nor territorial integrity. That will be a huge problem and I doubt Trump, Musk, or anyone else in his administration have thought through the implication.

The cost:

During a recent drone attack on Kharkiv, one of the drones was shot down near my brother’s home.

His youngest child, just six years old, has grown accustomed to the sound of explosions since it was his reality for half his life. But the deafening, ground-shaking blast of the drone exploding …

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 2:27 PM

Just outside their home still terrified him.He leapt into bed, covered his head with a blanket, and whispered, “exploding.” Even after it was all over, he refused to come out for some time.

What have our children ever done to deserve this?

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 2:27 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

There Is Good News Regarding Long-Range Drones: Our 3,000-Kilometer-Range Drone Has Successfully Passed Testing – Address by the President

17 March 2025 – 20:49

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

Today, I held a Staff Meeting. Several issues were discussed, but the key topic was drones – all types that we need. There is good news regarding long-range drones: our 3,000-kilometer-range drone has successfully passed testing. I am grateful to the developers and manufacturers. We are advancing a line of long-range capabilities that will help guarantee the security of our state. There was also a report on the use of Ukrainian missiles – the long Neptune, and we can say we are satisfied with the strike results. However, we need to produce more missiles, more drones, and this week, we will discuss this with our partners. Ukraine’s defense production capacity, combined with partner investments – primarily from Europe – forms a reliable foundation for a new security architecture that will inevitably be established on our continent. There is no alternative to this. Security is essential, and it is only a matter of time before everyone on the continent realizes that the old security architecture will no longer work. New solutions are needed. Sufficient modern technological weaponry. Sufficient defense spending. Sufficient investment in defense production. And most importantly – motivation. Motivation to defend one’s home. And this means contingents that have relevant combat experience, and that are trained by those who have already gained such experience.

Today, I held a meeting with the new Chief of the General Staff, Andriy Hnatov – together with Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, we outlined the top priorities. In particular, this concerns the corps system, which must be implemented as quickly as possible. In the near future, there will also be meetings with partners in Europe – specifically to work out the practical details of the future security system in Europe and the partner contingents ready to help secure peace in Ukraine. I expect a report from the Defense Minister on our preparations for these meetings. I also spoke today with President Macron of France. We coordinated our positions – both ahead of the conversation between President Trump and Putin and the upcoming meetings in Europe. I want to thank Emmanuel and all of France for their support.

It is very important that tomorrow marks one week since the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in the sky, at sea, and on the front lines has been on the table. The implementation of this proposal could have begun long ago. Every day in wartime is a matter of human lives. Now, almost a week later, it’s clear to everyone in the world – even to those who refused to acknowledge the truth for the past three years – that it is Putin who continues to drag out this war. For a week now, Putin has been unable to squeeze out ‘yes’ to the ceasefire proposal. He’s saying whatever he wants, but not what the whole world wants to hear. The unconditional ceasefire proposal is essentially about saving lives, allowing diplomats to work on ensuring security and a lasting peace – the proposal that Russia is ignoring. Pressure is needed to finally make Moscow accept that their war must be brought to an end.

Today, I also spoke with Argentine President Javier Milei. I informed him about the situation on the front line and in the negotiations. I told him that we are close to taking the first steps toward ending the war. And I called for Argentina’s voice to be heard confidently enough, as always, for the sake of peace.

And one more thing – about our life, our future, which will be secured despite everything Russia is trying to do to our country. Ukraine will preserve its independence. We will provide everything necessary for the development of our country and our people. I thank everyone who is already working toward this – for the sake of our resilience, Ukraine’s progress, Ukrainian education, and Ukrainian children. Today, together with the First Lady, I took part in the opening of the Mathematics Museum here in Kyiv – a modern, specialized educational space. And it is a task for the Ministry of Education, the Government as a whole, and regional authorities – to take this example of an educational space and expand it across the regions. Such opportunities and spaces should not be limited to Kyiv alone. Children across Ukraine need equal access to education and all educational opportunities. Right now, in wartime conditions, this is extremely difficult – but achievable. And after the war, it must be ensured even more so. I am grateful to everyone who advances science and education in Ukraine. To all who develop new educational initiatives and keep our entire educational infrastructure running. Teachers in schools, professors in universities, founders and staff of all Ukrainian educational projects – I am grateful to you! And we will certainly continue to support teachers, education, and new educational projects in Ukraine. Life must prevail. A just peace must be achieved.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 110. The largest protest in weeks, triggered by added anger as the dictatorship seized funds aiding protesters, regime prisoners, & their families.
“You cannot silence SOLIDARITY!”
Without new, free and fair Parliamentary elections, there’s no resolution.
#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 3:17 PM

Day 110. Today, they seized funds helping protesters and regime prisoners. And now, attendance is the largest that the last several weeks have seen.
We are stubborn in continuity and even more fierce under any added crisis. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM

Protesters are being fined 5,000 GEL (≈$1,800) en masse for blocking the road, with fines issued using facial recognition cameras. Citizens are trying confuse cameras.

📸 Natia Leverashvili/Publika

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 16, 2025 at 3:17 PM

Since protesters are all arbitrarily fined 4x the national monthly median salary through Chinese surveillance cameras, people come up with various forms of face masks and it almost looks like a masquerade now. Masks are banned too, but they can’t see who we are. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 1:02 PM

⭕️”Georgian Dream” plans to extend a law regulating broadcaster content to the internet, including online media. Archil Gorduladze, Chair of the GD’s Parliamentary Legal Affairs Committee, announced this today, March 17, during the bill’s second reading.
#RepressionInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) March 17, 2025 at 6:01 AM

The accounts of two other foundations were also seized: the Human Rights House and Prosperity Georgia.

These three foundations worked to assist protesters who were fined and arrested. Official reasons and details are unknown.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 7:18 AM

1/ The Prosecutor’s Office of Georgia has seized the bank accounts of 5 foundations. They worked to assist protesters who were fined and arrested.

#TerrorinGeorgia

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 9:24 AM

2/ The prosecutor’s office says funds’ accounts were frozen as part of a “sabotage” probe launched on Feb 8. They claim the funds were used for “anti-state actions,” including helping fined individuals pay.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 9:24 AM

3/ “A large part of the funds was used to meet the needs of individuals involved in illegal activities,” POG states.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 9:24 AM

4/ “The organizational and financial activities of specific funds are aimed at providing material assistance to lawbreakers and their family members”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 9:29 AM

5/ „Fines are paid on behalf of lawbreakers, and other personal or organizational issues are addressed,” the POG writes, claiming that these legal entities have spent more than 2 million GEL since December 2024.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 9:29 AM

Acc/to Nanuka Zhorzholiani, other funds have also been frozen, including Prosperity Georgia (Nika Gilauri’s foundation) and Human Rights House Tbilisi’s foundation – both of which primarily cover fines of #GeorgiaProtests participants.

#RepressionInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) March 17, 2025 at 7:18 AM

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 9:49 AM

The judge issued a verbal warning to Publika journalist @AnortherAlex, who was brutally beaten and detained by the police while covering the protest. He was ‘convicted’ of failing to obey the police orders.

#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 9:15 AM

The US Ambassador is currently meeting with the legitimate President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili.
It’s a significant step after her Friday’s meeting with GD Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili.
Likely, there’s some exchange of information and/or strategies being tested.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 6:27 AM

Kaja Kallas stated about the situation in Georgia:

“We are very concerned about the arrests of the people. We have also been putting pressure on those who are actually conducting the violence against the peaceful protesters”.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 4:00 AM

The US:

Last 24hrs, I think:
– Director of national intel says Trump & Putin “very good friends and very focused on how we can strengthen … shared objectives”
– Trump openly talks about “dividing up certain assets” (i.e. Ukraine)
– Trump considering recognising Crimea as part of Russia

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 5:41 PM

Where is the borderline between cutting unnecessary spending and assisting dictatorship in hiding war crimes?

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 8:53 AM

Pre-emotive concession after concession after concession. Inept, malevolent or compromised negotiators.

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 4:03 AM

The world is silent, the russians are not punished, the USA admin is “dividing Ukrainian assets”.

“As long as it takes” didn’t take that long, eh?

#UkrainianView #Ukraine

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— Roman Yeremenko (@roalyr.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 1:33 PM

From Reuters:

WASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said he would speak to Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Tuesday morning about ending the Ukraine war, with territorial concessions by Kyiv and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant likely to feature prominently in the talks.

“What’s happening in Ukraine is not good, but we’re going to see if we can work a peace agreement, a ceasefire and peace, and I think we’ll be able to do it,” Trump told reporters in Washington on Monday.

Trump has been trying to win Putin’s support for a 30-day ceasefire proposal that Ukraine accepted last week, as both sides traded heavy aerial strikes early on Monday and Russia moved closer to ejecting Ukrainian forces from their months-old foothold in the western Russian region of Kursk.

Trump said Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region were “in deep trouble,” surrounded by Russian soldiers.

He said his freeze on military aid to Ukraine earlier this month and his contentious Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may have helped persuade Kyiv.

“A lot of people are being killed over there, and we had to get Ukraine to do the right thing,” he said. “But I think they’re doing the right thing right now.”

Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, accused Putin of prolonging the war, saying that when the Russian leader speaks to Trump, he will have been aware of the ceasefire proposal for a week.

“This proposal could have been implemented long ago,” he said. “Every day in wartime means human lives,” he said.

Asked late on Sunday what concessions were being considered in ceasefire negotiations, Trump said: “We’ll be talking about land. We’ll be talking about power plants … We’re already talking about that, dividing up certain assets.”

He gave no details, but appeared to be referring to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia facility in Ukraine, Europe’s largest nuclear plant. Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of risking an accident at the plant with their actions.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a regular briefing on Monday that Trump and Putin would discuss a power plant “on the border” of Russia and Ukraine.Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on Trump’s remarks about land and power plants.

The Kremlin said on Friday Putin had sent Trump a message about his ceasefire plan via U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, who held talks in Moscow, expressing “cautious optimism” that a deal could be reached to end the three-year conflict.

On Sunday, Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump’s National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, emphasized there were still challenges to be worked out before Russia agrees to a ceasefire, much less a final peaceful resolution to the war.

Waltz was asked in an ABC interview whether the U.S. would accept a peace deal in which Russia was allowed to keep Ukrainian territory it has seized, and replied: “We have to ask ourselves, is it in our national interest? Is it realistic? … Are we going to drive every Russian off of every inch of Ukrainian soil?

More at the link.

Lithuania and Poland:

Dear allies, the investigation of the Lithuanian prosecutor’s office has confirmed our suspicions that responsible for setting fires to shopping centres in Vilnius and Warsaw are the Russian secret services. Good to know before negotiations. Such is the nature of this state.

— Donald Tusk (@donald-tusk.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 7:51 AM

From The Financial Times:

Russian military intelligence was behind a fire at an Ikea store in Vilnius last year and at least one of the suspects is linked to other sabotage events in eastern Europe, according to prosecutors in Lithuania.

Artūras Urbelis, Lithuania’s chief prosecutor for organised crime, said that Russia was linked to the Ikea arson and other incidents through a chain of intermediaries.

“The organisers of these actions are Russia. It is linked to military intelligence, to the security forces,” Urbelis said on Monday.

Russia is accused of sabotage across Europe by a large number of western intelligence officials after a number of fires, parcel bombs, and acts of vandalism in recent months. The officials have said that Russia often pays people, including low-level criminals, to carry out the attacks.

A Polish court last month sentenced a Ukrainian man to eight years in prison for planning acts of sabotage and arson on Russia’s behalf. Polish authorities last week charged a Belarusian with an arson attack on a large DIY store in Warsaw on behalf of Russian intelligence. In the UK, a man last year pleaded guilty to accepting pay from foreign intelligence when setting fire to a Ukrainian-owned business in east London.

Keir Giles, senior fellow at Chatham House, described the attacks so far as ‘‘isolated pinpricks’’ but said hybrid warfare by Russia could pose a serious risk.

“If you strip out the random noise of apparently pointless vandalism like attacks on Ikea and shopping centres, and focus instead on the targeted reconnaissance and damage to communications and logistics infrastructure, it becomes clear how damaging this campaign could be if and when it transitions to mass co-ordinated attacks.’’ he said.

Authorities are also investigating whether Russia is behind a number of bigger acts of sabotage in the Baltic Sea in the past two years after gas pipelines and electricity and data cables were cut by ship anchors.

The Kremlin has denied European governments’ accusations of hybrid warfare.

Prosecutors in Lithuania are treating the Ikea fire as an act of terrorism and believe the perpetrators are two Ukrainian citizens.

One suspect was arrested last May while he was on his way to the Latvian capital Riga to conduct a similar arson attack, according to Lithuanian prosecutors. The suspect, who was under-aged at the time of the attack, agreed to be paid €10,000 for both the Vilnius and Riga attacks, they added.

The suspect then placed an incendiary device in the Ikea store on the evening of May 8 with a timed fuse that went off at about 4am the next day. The suspect had already returned to Warsaw where they received a BMW 530 as a reward for completing the task, prosecutors added.

The second suspect is currently detained in Poland and part of the investigation will be transferred to Polish authorities, Urbelis said. The suspects appear to be connected to criminal acts committed in Poland as well, he added.

The Lithuanian prosecutor said Ikea was chosen deliberately because the furniture retailer had closed all of its stores in Russia.

More at the link.

Remember the correctly translated sage words of Long Dead Carl: war is politics with other means.

Back to Ukraine.

Dnipro:

A massive fire erupted in the suburb of Dnipro following a russian drone strike on an infrastructure facility.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 4:21 PM

Russian assault group targeted by heavy night bomber drone.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 2:19 AM

Kherson Oblast:

Russia continues to terrorize Kherson’s civilians, targeting them with drones on a daily basis—even children.

No one is spared from what they chillingly refer to as a “human safari.”

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 2:09 PM

Kharkiv:

Russian drones in Kharkiv skies right now ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 3:13 PM

The Kursk cross border offensive.

UA Defense Minister Rustem Umerov says claims of thousands of UA soldiers surrounded in Russia’s Kursk Oblast untrue, the UA army still controls “a significant number of kilometers” of Russian territory. UA soldiers tell the BBC a different story.
www.bbc.com/news/article…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 3:58 AM

“There were no ‘Nazi atrocities,’ no executions, no rapes by the UAF. This is what differs from the official narrative.” – Kursk activist Vladimir Sinelnikov recounts the essence of his conversations with people who left the areas of the Kursk region that were under UAF control.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

An epic destruction of an enemy ammunition depot by an FPV drone operated by Special Operations Forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 1:57 PM

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Video of the strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse, southern Russia, on March 14. The strike may have been carried out by one of Ukraine’s new “Long Neptune” missiles, which have a reported range of 1,000 km. Tuapse is about 950 km from Kyiv.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 17, 2025 at 3:43 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

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♬ fade into you – refilmx

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

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And a machine translation on the caption over the picture:

Mykhailo said that if someone spells the name of my breed correctly, I won’t get any goodies…

Open thread!