President Zelenskyy was not particularly impressed by the Trump team’s attempted shakedown:
Zelensky on the mineral deal: Ukraine just received text, it will undergo a thorough legal review. Past aid won’t become loans. For future US support: current team won’t give anything for free. Realpolitik in action.
Ukraine will not sign a minerals deal with the U.S. if it threatens its accession to the European Union, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 28.
Zelensky’s remarks came a day after details of a new alleged draft of a mineral agreement between Kyiv and Washington emerged. The Financial Times reported on March 27 that the latest version of the agreement proposed by the U.S. includes terms that would grant Washington unprecedented control over Ukraine’s natural resources through a joint investment fund.
Ukrainian online newspaper Yevropeiska Pravda reported that the deal may contradict Ukraine’s EU accession due to severe restrictions that affect Ukraine’s economic sovereignty.
“The Constitution of Ukraine makes it clear that our course is towards the EU,” Zelensky told reporters. “Nothing that could threaten Ukraine’s accession to the EU can be accepted.”
According to Zelensky, Ukraine officially received a new version of the minerals deal from the U.S. on March 28.
Zelensky will consider the deal when there are “no relevant legislative threats,” adding that lawyers should compare the all versions of the deal and give their assessment.
“There are a lot of things (in the new version of the deal) that had not been discussed before. And there are also some things that the parties had previously rejected,” the president added.
Washington had initially planned to sign the agreement on Feb. 28, but the process was delayed after a heated dispute between U.S. President Donald Trump and Zelensky at the White House.
Zelensky confirmed on March 25 that the U.S. had proposed a “major” minerals deal based on a previous framework agreement, but he did not specify a signing timeline. A day earlier, Trump had said he expected the deal to be signed “soon.”
According to the initial version, the agreement would establish a fund to which Ukraine would contribute 50% of proceeds from the future extraction of state-owned resources, including oil, gas, and logistics infrastructure.
The version Kyiv approved earlier does not include security guarantees but says that the fund “will be reinvested at least annually in Ukraine to promote the safety, security, and prosperity of Ukraine.”
The White House has described the minerals deal as a mechanism for the U.S. to “recoup” some of the financial aid it has provided to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Right now President Zelenskyy is trying to create strategic time. He cannot outright rebuff Trump’s proposals, nor can he make it clear what he really thinks about them. He has to do this because he has to keep the intel sharing and whatever US military aid is still flowing turned on until the Europeans both can and actually do step up to make up for any/all US shortfalls going forward.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is gaining expanded access to European intelligence and certain European ammunition stockpiles. He also mentioned an urgent meeting in a “close circle” regarding the troop contingent.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Pressure on Russia Is Needed for Diplomacy to Work – Address by the President
28 March 2025 – 19:36
I wish you health!
A brief update on today. There was a Staff meeting. A very detailed discussion on the development of drones in Ukraine, contracts, finances, technical issues, and production. Our task is to clearly increase supplies to the army, as well as maximize the technological advantages of our Ukrainian drones. Today, I received reports on the downing of the “Shahed” drones by interceptor drones – I want to thank everyone who is developing this area. We are working to increase the production of jet-powered and fiber-optic drones – this is extremely important right now, one of the key priorities, and we need sufficient supplies for the troops. We also discussed our missile program today – accelerating production to the maximum. We are also working on establishing domestic production of anti-aircraft missile systems and all necessary air defense systems in Ukraine. These days, during meetings in Europe and earlier in negotiations with other partners, we discussed the localization of production for some air defense systems and missiles for them in Ukraine – this must definitely be achieved. I would like to thank all our partners who support us in this industrial and technological development, and everything we are achieving now in Ukraine will be a joint result for all of Europe – our shared and lasting security.
Today, there was also a separate and detailed report by Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov – particularly regarding support packages from our partners. There are good new agreements. There is also an understanding that a new meeting in the “Ramstein” format should take place as early as April – with Germany and the United Kingdom currently leading the format. We are working on its substantive content. I have instructed Ukraine’s Minister of Defense to present to our American partners all the facts regarding damage to our energy infrastructure caused by Russian attacks. Just in the past 24 hours, there was a targeted Russian drone strike on gas infrastructure in the Poltava region. There was also an artillery strike on Kherson, which damaged the city’s power infrastructure. Also yesterday, one of Russia’s attacks on Kharkiv damaged the city’s heating supply infrastructure. All of this shows that Russia will continue to sabotage diplomacy, and will continue to act in this way, and that Moscow’s only tactic remains dragging out the war. Putin may say things that sound like he agrees with the American side, but in reality, the Russian army just keeps pushing forward with all available military means. Therefore, pressure on Russia is needed to make diplomacy work. Back on March 11, Ukraine accepted the U.S. proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, and since then, Russia has been fully responsible for stalling diplomacy.
Today I also approved several personnel decisions aimed at strengthening our defense capabilities – specifically, the aviation component of the Defense Forces. We had a meeting with representatives from the public sector, the military, and the Office, all of whom were helping develop military aviation. Liliya Averyanova, the mother of Juice, the Hero of Ukraine Andrii Pilschykov, took part in the discussion. Together, we agreed on a new structure to strengthen the aviation component, as well as on specific management and technological steps. Now for the appointments. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine will have a specialized deputy specifically for combat aviation – Oleksandr Kozenko. He has been involved in the integration of the F-16 and Mirage aircraft in Ukraine for a long time. Major General Oleksii Marchenko will now serve as Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine in this particular aviation area, Brigadier General Serhii Holubtsov will be Deputy Commander of the Air Force, and Colonel Oleksandr Diakiv will be Commander of Aviation, Deputy Commander of the Air Force. Clear deadlines have been set for the new management structure to yield more results and motivation to the entire aviation component of the Defense Forces. I thank everyone who is helping! I thank all our warriors!
Glory to Ukraine!
And here is the press conference he did after the leaders’ meeting in Paris yesterday.
1/ In front of the entrance to the Parliament building, citizens are protesting the Georgian Dream parliamentary investigative commission’s “study” of the August 2008 war.
2/ Goga Khaindrava, who answered the commission’s questions, was met with protest chants from the crowd. In response, Khaindrava made an insulting gesture toward the demonstrators.
Both detainees are women. One of them, Tamar Kuratishvili, is holding a banner that reads: ‘Antsukhelidze is immortal.’ Giorgi Antsukhelidze was tortured to death by Russians in 2008. He is a national hero of Georgia.
Helen has not been released, unlike several other detainees. She is at a pre-trial detention center. We shall know more in the following hours, I suppose.
Her case should certainly be administrative, unless they blatantly trump-up something, which isn’t impossible either.
Update: Helen Khoshtaria has administrative cases of disobedience to the police and “petty hooliganism” for apparently crossing a zebra crossing… (for real).
She’s in detention now and hopefully she isn’t sentenced to a couple of weeks of administrative arrest.
Ukrainian MFA spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko responded to Putin’s proposal to establish a temporary government in Ukraine under UN auspices: Ukraine proposes a temporary UN governence in Russia, starting with Vorkuta.
UN rejects Putin’s call for temporary administration in Ukraine. Guterres says Ukraine’s legitimate gov must be respected, dismissing external governance under UN as part of a peace deal.
news.sky.com/story/ukrain…
As we have reported here today, Vladimir Putin has called for a transitional government under the auspices of the United Nations to be installed in Ukraine as part of any peace deal.
This suggestion had already been rejected by Washington and has now, unsurprisingly, received a similar response from the UN itself.
The organisation’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said today that Ukraine had a legitimate government that must be respected.
Russia:
We normally think Russian nuclear threats in 2022-25 worked in keeping the West out. Dima Adamsky argues: “The main lesson that the Russian expert community has learned is that its pre-2022 deterrence strategy and the posture supporting it are obsolete.” direct.mit.edu/isec/article…
“Russia’s main priorities are to restore its coercive credibility, to refine nuclear coercion for conventional scenarios that threaten Russia’s vital interests, and to develop a coercion strategy for a non-nuclear near-peer competitor.” direct.mit.edu/isec/article…
This article traces the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the evolution of the Russian approach to coercion strategy. The article argues that strategic thinking evolves differently in various ideational realms, and that deterrence is not a universal concept. Cultural factors condition how a state approaches coercion strategy and account for differences across cases. The article offers a framework for examining the strategy of coercion and military innovations outside the Western intellectual tradition. Building on evidence from Russian primary sources and the traits of Russian strategic culture, it hypothesizes about the major trends in Russian deterrence strategy for the next decade and shows how the Russian establishment analyzes the failures and successes of Russia’s intra-war coercion. The main lesson that the Russian expert community has learned is that its pre-2022 deterrence strategy and the posture supporting it are obsolete. Russia’s main priorities are to restore its coercive credibility, to refine nuclear coercion for conventional scenarios that threaten Russia’s vital interests, and to develop a coercion strategy for a non-nuclear near-peer competitor.
From the Findings’ section:
This article has three main implications for theory and practice. First, like in other wartime transformations, a complex conceptual-bureaucratic dynamic is likely to influence how Russia reconstitutes its deterrence strategy and theory.93 The major Soviet and Russian military innovations over the last hundred years suggest that intra- and inter-service competitions and nonstrategic considerations will shape Russia’s defense transformation almost as much as strategic-doctrinal deliberations. In previous innovations, several schools of thought and theories of victory have vied for resources and influence.94 Similarly, today, conceptual and organizational incoherencies, suboptimal choices, and nonstrategic considerations may shape Russian innovative thinking, policy choices, and behavior in the realm of strategic deterrence.
If Russia relies even more on its nuclear coercion, the result may be budgetary trade-offs between the conventional and nonconventional realms. Bureaucratic coalitions that compete for resources are likely to emerge. This pattern is not unprecedented. In the 1990s, similar circumstances produced clashes within the defense establishment on budget allocations, state armaments programs, and military reform.95 Bureaucratic competitions during military transformations are a universal phenomenon. What is unique to Russia is that these rivalries express themselves in competing “scientific visions.” Thus, it is likely that Russian experts will present conflicting conceptions about the emerging character of war and how to adjust Russia’s deterrence.96
The current war is also reshaping who has influence within the Russian strategic community, not least because of the reshuffling of the defense elite. In an era of austerity and against the backdrop of an emerging military aristocracy, the brass from the conventional and nuclear services are likely to compete for resources and influence. As of this writing, the contours of these new conceptual-bureaucratic coalitions are just emerging. The competitive dynamic between these schools of thought will also inform how Russia transforms its strategic deterrence. Scholars who study Russia, international security, or comparative politics may wish to factor the above propositions into their analyses.
The second practical implication relates to the dangers of escalation in the era of integrated deterrence. During the Cold War, there was an asymmetry in the strategic competition that unfolded: The United States leaned heavily on deterrence strategy and developed the theory supporting it, whereas the Soviet Union, despite buying into the logic of mutual assured destruction, regarded deterrence and limited nuclear war as doctrinal heresy. The contemporary situation is different; both states are competing to learn about the operational art of deterrence and doubling down on the integrated approach to this strategy.
Whatever officials on both sides of the Atlantic mean by integrated deterrence, it is a buzzword in the communities of practice in the United States and NATO. Moreover, the current move toward integration in the West is catching up with deterrence à la russe.97 Over the last thirty years, the Russian concept of strategic deterrence has focused on integrating coercive programs across nonmilitary and military domains. Western pundits have already explored the risks of inadvertent escalation that have arisen in the current era.98 This article has highlighted another potential source of such escalation. I suggest that when competitors from different strategic cultures use an integrated approach to coercion against one other, the chances of misperception, miscommunication, and inadvertent escalation increase exponentially. One of the main features of the integrated approach is a capacity for asymmetrical moves—that is, responding to friction in one domain with tools from another. Arguably, NATO’s and Russia’s inclination toward integrated deterrence increases the chances of crossing the culmination point (i.e., it can cause both sides to overreact).
For example, Russia’s strategy is to use nuclear coercion to compensate for its conventional inferiorities. Western political warfare—or what Moscow views as informational coercion against Russia’s collective mentality—is more of a menace for the Kremlin than nuclear or conventional threats. Moscow perceives political warfare as a threat to Russia’s vital interests and even as an existential threat reminiscent of its biggest strategic defeat—the collapse of the Soviet Union. Many Russians believe that this was a success of Western informational subversion, since all the Soviet nuclear and conventional arsenals remained intact. Thus, the Kremlin is likely to counter asymmetrically (using cyber, kinetic, or nuclear measures) if it assumes that it is incapable of retaliating in kind and feels cornered. Yet Moscow’s red lines and the level of unacceptable damage by non-nuclear actors against it that may provoke Russian nuclear reaction, intentionally or inadvertently, remain a conundrum.99
This article also makes a theoretical contribution to the literatures on military innovations and nuclear strategy. Battlefields in Ukraine and in the Middle East have become laboratories for learning about the current character of war and have stimulated an interest in conventional and nuclear intra-war coercion worldwide.
Although it is still unknown what lessons Russia will draw about the new norms of using military force, it is clear that actors from different military traditions may look at the same wars but ask different questions or give different answers to the same queries.100 The lessons for the operational art of deterrence from the Russian-Ukrainian War and from the Israeli operations in the Middle East since October 2023 are likely to vary too. This variance matters—I argue that there will be a repertoire of theories about coercion rather than a universal strategy. For example, some Russian defense intellectuals are calling for Russia to develop an indigenous non-Western theory of deterrence and diffuse it among communities of practice in the Global South.101 A competition of learning about the operational art of deterrence among current and potential members of the nuclear club is gathering momentum. I suggest that China, Iran, and Russia have merged into a knowledge-sharing community on the matter of cross-domain coercion.
Meanwhile in Russia, the pipe worship continues… According to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, another pipe has been placed near a Russian church and consecrated. Now Russians are crawling inside for “purification” and to “receive grace.”
Overnight, russia attacked Ukrainian energy company ‘Naftogaz’. Today, Peskov blamed Ukraine for the failure of energy ceasefire and basically pulled out of it.
Ukraine’s Naftogaz says Russia hit their sites overnight, damaging gas output. It’s the 18th strike since 2022, 8th this year. No one’s hurt, but losses are being tallied.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has reached new deals with several European allies to deepen intelligence co-operation as he rejected Donald Trump’s latest proposal to take control of Ukrainian assets.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has reached new deals with several European allies to deepen intelligence co-operation as he rejected Donald Trump’s latest proposal to take control of Ukrainian assets.
Speaking to reporters in Kyiv’s presidential palace on Friday, Zelenskyy said intelligence sharing was critical for Ukraine to defend against Russia’s attacks and target its forces. Kyiv has been seeking alternatives after the US cut access to intelligence and military aid for a week earlier this month.
Zelenskyy declined to provide details but said that “this is a European initiative — expanding Ukraine’s access to intelligence, access to relevant technologies, satellites that our European colleagues have”.
He said Kyiv’s European partners planned to announce new defence packages at an April 11 meeting hosted by Germany and the UK, to be held in the Ramstein format set up to co-ordinate military supplies to Ukraine.
Kyiv and its European partners agreed in Paris on Thursday to license the joint production of air defence systems and artillery, he added.
Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine had received from the Trump administration an expansive new draft proposal for a critical minerals, energy and infrastructure deal, but described it as “entirely different” from one agreed in previous talks.
Relations between Ukraine and its most significant ally have been rocky as Trump re-establishes relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and seeks Ukrainian agreement for income streams that he considers recompense for past US military aid.
Zelenskyy said he wanted “to get a review from lawyers at the highest level” of the new deal before agreeing to anything.
A senior Ukrainian official said on Thursday that a team of legal advisers had been brought in to help the government examine the document as it prepared a counter-offer.
The Trump administration had sought to formalise long-term access to Ukrainian mineral and energy resources, which are now seen as vital to Trump’s efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and make a dent in China’s domination of critical minerals in particular.
But Ukrainian officials are wary of deals that they fear could undermine their nation’s sovereignty, send profits abroad and disrupt its integration with the EU.
“We cannot accept any arrangement that undermines our EU path,” Zelenskyy said.
More at the link.
When an “unprecedented” cyberattack hit the computer networks of Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) on March 23, the company’s staff gave up any idea of getting a good night’s sleep for the foreseeable future.
When an “unprecedented” cyberattack hit the computer networks of Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) on March 23, the company’s staff gave up any idea of getting a good night’s sleep for the foreseeable future.
“Everyone is working around the clock. This is no joke,” Anastasia Zolotaryova, Ukrzaliznytsia spokesperson told the Kyiv Independent on March 26, already spending her fourth day straight at Kyiv’s main train station.
“Our IT workers have slept only two hours in the past day. They step out to rest when they have no strength left and then return to continue restoration efforts,” she added.
What was initially described as a “technical failure” was on March 24 confirmed to be a “large-scale and sophisticated cyberattack” carried out by ‘the enemy,’” according to Ukrzaliznytsia.
The company’s website and app crashed making online ticket purchases impossible, and leaving anyone with only digital copies of previously bought tickets in limbo.
For a country at war where commercial aviation is prohibited, disruption on such a vital travel network threatened country-wide chaos.
“The primary goal of the attackers, obviously, was to stop the rail from running,” Oleksandr Shevchenko, deputy head of Ukrzaliznytsia, told the Kyiv Independent.
“Because the railway in Ukraine these days transports everything from the military and the wounded and to the evacuation of the civilians, and international diplomats as well.”
It would take “89 hours of non-stop work” to get the computer systems back online, and even now the company’s servers are struggling with demand. But if the hackers aim was to cripple Ukraine’s railway network, it fell far short of success — over the past four days, 96% of Ukrainian railway trains still arrived on time.
That’s not to say it had no effect — for those wanting to book tickets, or those trying to recover lost digital copies, it meant long waits in lines at train stations across the country.
At Kyiv’s main railway station on March 26, 27 ticket offices were open, with special windows available for military personnel and people with disabilities.
Some ticket clerks had been working continuously for several days, spending nights at the station.
To cover staff shortages, workers were brought from less busy stations in cities like Bila Tserkva, 90 kilometers away.
Yet such was demand that queues were still hours-long.
Tetiana Bairak, 51, a senior sergeant from the 99th Brigade, came to secure a ticket for her transfer to the long-awaited position in the 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment.
“As a military person, I’m comfortable anywhere — in a dugout, in the field, in a tent. Standing in line and getting to my destination so that the war ends faster is no problem, we are patient,” she told the Kyiv Independent.
More at the link.
Dinpro:
Every evening at 9 pm mad Russian roulette starts for Ukraine — no one knows which city they’ll target next. Tonight it’s Dnipro. Massive drone attack has set a riverside resort on fire.
More drones in the air
Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.
A Russian drone attack on March 28 killed four people and injured at least 19 in the city of Dnipro, sparking a large fire at a hotel and restaurant complex as well as almost 10 private residences.
Regional Governor Serhii Lysak said three of the wounded are in critical condition.
Over 20 drones targeted the city, though most were shot down. Several high-rises were damaged in the strike, according to local authorities. First responders have been dispatched to the site of the attack.
Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, has served as a key logistics and humanitarian hub during the full-scale war. The city has been a frequent target of intensified Russian attacks.
Ukraine has already agreed to a U.S.-proposed full 30-day ceasefire, saying on March 11 that Kyiv is ready to take such a step if Russia also agrees to the terms. So far, Russia has refused.
Kharkiv:
Some distant explosions in Kharkiv. Russian drones are swarming our region right now.
God, I’m so tired of this. They never stop trying to kill us.
Russia’s terror against civilians in Kherson has now reached unprecedented levels. The terrifying “human safari” tactics, in which Russian killer drones target Ukrainian civilians across the Dnipro River, have now followed an artillery bombardment to create a deadly “double tap” combination.
This calculated approach first drives civilians to take cover from shell fire, then hunts them with drones as they flee – all while specifically targeting ambulances and rescue workers responding to the initial casualties. On 27 March 2025, this deadly innovation turned downtown Kherson into an apocalyptic scene of black smoke, scattered bodies, and civilians trapped without power or water as they counted two dead and six wounded.
The assault severed power and water supplies across the city and damaged critical infrastructure including the train station.
The assault began in the early morning with drone attacks on civilians. A 68-year-old woman was killed by a “human safari” drone, while a 59-year-old man sustained injuries and was hospitalized. Another victim, an 82-year-old woman, suffered a contusion and head wounds. Olha, a Kherson resident and a family grocery store owner, like many, could not leave her home, and lost the Internet and power.
A gas pipeline caught fire following a strike, and as emergency responders worked to extinguish the blaze, drones targeted them.
Just past midday, Russian forces intensified their assault, launching nearly 40 artillery shells into downtown Kherson between 12:30 and 14:30. Black smoke covered the sky as a disturbing new tactic emerged: artillery shelling combined with a coordinated drone hunt for civilians and first responders. Reconnaissance, kamikaze, and “skid” drones buzzed through the air, dropping explosives at near-constant intervals of about every five minutes.
By 13:00, the city had lost power. The railway station square resembled a war film. Power cables hung from shattered poles. A vehicle was burned on its side. Debris littered the roads and sidewalks. The train station, already damaged from previous attacks, took another hit—windows, previously covered with plywood, were once again shattered. Water supply infrastructure and electrical cables suffered additional damage.
A Kherson–Lviv train was struck, and one wagon sustained damage. Passengers and staff had taken shelter, preventing further casualties. The strike delayed the train’s departure by 1.5 hours.
More at the link
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Russia has intensified assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, increasing pressure on Ukraine’s southern positions; The European Union is preparing its 17th package of sanctions against Russia; and more.
Russia has intensified assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, increasing pressure on Ukraine’s southern positions, Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn said on March 28 during Ukraine’s state-run telethon.
The Ukrainian military reported escalating hostilities and a rise in attacks on key areas. Zaporizhzhia Oblast holds strategic importance for Russia, underscoring its efforts to advance in the region.
Voloshyn said Russia seeks to strengthen its position ahead of potential truce or ceasefire negotiations. “The Russians want to get as much of a head start or advance as much as possible in Zaporizhzhia Oblast,” he said.
According to the spokesperson, Russian forces have massed troops for assault operations using small infantry groups. This tactic, deployed in other sectors, has yielded some results in Zaporizhzhia, particularly near Orikhiv and Hulyaypole.
The number of such attacks has risen significantly since the beginning of spring, Voloshyn said.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in southeastern Ukraine, borders Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the north, Donetsk Oblast to the east, and Kherson Oblast to the south. It is also home to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, one of Europe’s largest.
Russian forces partially control the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Moscow claims to have annexed the entire territory of these regions in 2022, despite failing to control the regional capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
A Kremlin-linked official told the Moscow Times that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to lose these territories politically, making their retention a priority at any cost.
While a ceasefire and peace deal could freeze the war along current front lines, Ukraine is unlikely to recognize Russian-occupied territories as legally part of Russia.
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Even in an imaginary “full encirclement” in Kursk, Ukrainian forces are shredding RF officers. Marat Tybilov, call sign “Talib,” got a “Gold Star” from Putin a month ago—thanks to Putin, he’s now a dead “hero”!
Meanwhile, the Russians continue to whine about the critical mass of Ukrainian drones. This time, it’s in the Belgorod region. The author of the text shares the impression that Ukrainians are definitely exceeding their plan to produce 1 million drones per year.
Just as Ukrainian forces are losing their foothold in the pocket of Russia’s Kursk region they captured last year, they have staged a so-far little-publicised incursion into the adjacent Belgorod region, according to Russian military bloggers.
Several Russian military correspondents reported today that Ukrainian troops were inside Belgorod and fighting battles with Russian forces there.
Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed the reports, though Russia’s defence ministry said 10 days ago that its forces had thwarted five Ukrainian attempts to push across the border in Belgorod.
Ukraine’s military has not commented on any thrust into Belgorod region by Kyiv’s forces, though that could be for operational security reasons.
Andrii Kovalenko, an official at Ukraine’s National Defence and Security Council, suggested in a statement earlier this month that Ukrainian forces could act in the Belgorod region, “neutralising threats” from Russian forces that might mass near the border.
And Rybar, a Russian military blog with 1.3 million subscribers, said there had been heavy clashes in a settlement called Popovka and each side was hitting the other with drones. Another Telegram account, Two Majors, said Russian forces were conducting “defensive operations”.
“There are constant strikes on concentrations of Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the enemy still has serious offensive potential for this direction and has not abandoned plans for further breakthroughs, including in new areas of the front,” it said.
A third military blog, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, reported fighting in a village called Demidovka and said some Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded there.
The accounts have not been independently confirmed.
The Ukrainian operation may be an attempt to distract Russian forces as they try to drive out the last Ukrainian forces from next-door Kursk. One of the Russian blogs, Rybar, said Russia had moved reinforcements to Belgorod from Goptarovka in the Kursk region.
Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finnish-based Black Bird Group, said Ukrainian forces had penetrated the first Russian defences and advanced most likely to a depth of 3-4 km (1.9 to 2.5 miles).
But he said it was unlikely that they could stage a serious breakthrough and threaten any important Russians logistical routes or cities.
“The Ukrainians can, in theory, take some more villages from the border area, but that’s not what a breakthrough means – it’d be a small tactical success, but there’s very little to be achieved in the Demidovka direction at operational or strategic level,” he said.
“There’s no proper element of surprise, and the Russian presence in the area is strong enough to at least conduct mostly successful defensive operations.”
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material
🫂🐶 “Do not tremble, my little one, I am your shield,” and in that moment his battle-hardened hands become for the doggie a cradle of hope shining through the darkness of war. It is a fleeting collision of souls where humanity blossoms amidst chaos.
A little story, about Ukrainians in an earlier war. Regular readers may recall I made an inquiry a few weeks ago about a reported German POW camp in Poland. This adds to that.
Start with a 24-year-old Ukrainian man finishing medical school in 1938 and being conscripted into the Polish Army medical corps (the distinction between western Ukraine and Poland wasn’t so sharp.) In September of 1939, of course, things in Poland changed. Having been stationed in/near Warsaw, this young man was taken to a German POW camp about 50 klicks west of Warsaw.
Also starting in 1938, his 21-year-old Ukrainian fiancée was studying in Krakow – again, while it’s now Poland, the distinction then was vague, and there was a large Ukrainian community in Krakow. Some time in September of 1939, she becomes aware that her fiancé was taken prisoner. By working all her contacts, she gets a report of where he might be. So she tells her friends in the community “I’m going there.” It’s over 300 km away, the Nazis have occupied Poland, she’s 21, 5-feet-nothing and maybe 95 pounds dripping wet. They try to tell her that’s ridiculous.
But she finds someone who says he’s traveling to Warsaw, and will take her under his wing. Partially by train, partially by hitching rides with transports, partly by farm vehicles, they get to Warsaw. Her companion says adios, and she makes her way out to the camp by means that are unexplained. So she’s at the gate of a large German POW camp, a 21-yo woman, alone, looking for a prisoner. Luckily, she had lived several years in Berlin, and had traveled all over Germany accompanying her father, an engineer for Siemens, and spoke flawless German.
She talks her way in. Now there are thousands of prisoners, dozens of buildings, she has no idea where to look. The first prisoner she asks about the whereabouts of this Ukrainian doctor named ___, he says “oh, yeah, I heard he was killed.” But she’s undaunted, and goes on, finding a group of prisoners playing cards – her fiancé was known to be a serious card player. He wasn’t among them, but she heard he was at work in the medical clinic. She goes to the clinic, and there he is, as reported. Reunion details are vague but can be inferred. But by this time it’s late in the day, and he tells her the camp is locking down soon, you can’t get out, but you can’t stay. He convinces one of the nuns working the clinic to hide her in a bathtub, so that’s where she spends the night.
Fewer details are available at this point, but she gets out the next day and makes her way back to Krakow, where she puts the community to work. Somehow, through means that all involved took to their graves, he gets out, and in late December of 1939 they marry in Krakow, and in early 1940 return to Ukraine, where they stay until June of 1945, only fleeing when they hear the Russian tanks.
In total, according to military analysts, Russia has broken 190 agreements signed with Ukraine and international community. In the lead-up to the invasion, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin repeatedly attacked Ukraine’s right to exist and referred to Ukraine as “historically Russian lands”.
that is amazing. Thank you for providing the information you have managed to discover.. It would make a wonderful movie. Sad that the details were never disclosed.
my most heartfelt wishes to you, your family and friends.
Adam. I echo everyone’s appreciation of the news & analysis you post night.y. Here’s a thought that’s been niggling me: now that Biden’s risk-adverse team is gone & Trump’s team is distracted by schemes to steal Ukraine’s mineral wealth >> Does this free up the less risk-adverse Europeans & other allies to not stand in the way of Ukraine employing more aggressive military tactics & weapons? Hope so…
Friday Afternoon Open Thread
HinTN
Where do you find the energy, Adam? Thank you, as always.
Medicine Man
Thank you for the round-up, Adam. You take care out there.
Nukular Biskits
I know it sounds canned, but we appreciate all you do, Adam.
v/r
Adam L Silverman
@HinTN: You’re welcome.
Bill Arnold
Mr. Trump has decreed that a criminal gang is a terrorist organization. Russia certainly fits the definition, unlike a gang with no political agenda.
Adam L Silverman
@Medicine Man: @Nukular Biskits: You’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
I’m very, very sore from this week’s workouts. I’m fine, it’s “good” sore. So I’m going to head offline for a bit.
Everyone is preemptively welcome.
HinTN
@Adam L Silverman: 😂✔👍
Gin & Tonic
A little story, about Ukrainians in an earlier war. Regular readers may recall I made an inquiry a few weeks ago about a reported German POW camp in Poland. This adds to that.
Start with a 24-year-old Ukrainian man finishing medical school in 1938 and being conscripted into the Polish Army medical corps (the distinction between western Ukraine and Poland wasn’t so sharp.) In September of 1939, of course, things in Poland changed. Having been stationed in/near Warsaw, this young man was taken to a German POW camp about 50 klicks west of Warsaw.
Also starting in 1938, his 21-year-old Ukrainian fiancée was studying in Krakow – again, while it’s now Poland, the distinction then was vague, and there was a large Ukrainian community in Krakow. Some time in September of 1939, she becomes aware that her fiancé was taken prisoner. By working all her contacts, she gets a report of where he might be. So she tells her friends in the community “I’m going there.” It’s over 300 km away, the Nazis have occupied Poland, she’s 21, 5-feet-nothing and maybe 95 pounds dripping wet. They try to tell her that’s ridiculous.
But she finds someone who says he’s traveling to Warsaw, and will take her under his wing. Partially by train, partially by hitching rides with transports, partly by farm vehicles, they get to Warsaw. Her companion says adios, and she makes her way out to the camp by means that are unexplained. So she’s at the gate of a large German POW camp, a 21-yo woman, alone, looking for a prisoner. Luckily, she had lived several years in Berlin, and had traveled all over Germany accompanying her father, an engineer for Siemens, and spoke flawless German.
She talks her way in. Now there are thousands of prisoners, dozens of buildings, she has no idea where to look. The first prisoner she asks about the whereabouts of this Ukrainian doctor named ___, he says “oh, yeah, I heard he was killed.” But she’s undaunted, and goes on, finding a group of prisoners playing cards – her fiancé was known to be a serious card player. He wasn’t among them, but she heard he was at work in the medical clinic. She goes to the clinic, and there he is, as reported. Reunion details are vague but can be inferred. But by this time it’s late in the day, and he tells her the camp is locking down soon, you can’t get out, but you can’t stay. He convinces one of the nuns working the clinic to hide her in a bathtub, so that’s where she spends the night.
Fewer details are available at this point, but she gets out the next day and makes her way back to Krakow, where she puts the community to work. Somehow, through means that all involved took to their graves, he gets out, and in late December of 1939 they marry in Krakow, and in early 1940 return to Ukraine, where they stay until June of 1945, only fleeing when they hear the Russian tanks.
This is a true story.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20according%20to%20military,as%20%22historically%20Russian%20lands%22.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
pieceofpeace
I’m exhausted from worn-out discouragement over the course taken by our country, as it enables Putin’s ruthless insanity.
At least I feel informed about this war, thanks to you, Adam, for the most part.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: @Westyny: @AlaskaReader: @pieceofpeace: You are all most welcome.
Debbie(Aussie)
@Gin & Tonic:
that is amazing. Thank you for providing the information you have managed to discover.. It would make a wonderful movie. Sad that the details were never disclosed.
my most heartfelt wishes to you, your family and friends.
way2blue
Adam. I echo everyone’s appreciation of the news & analysis you post night.y. Here’s a thought that’s been niggling me: now that Biden’s risk-adverse team is gone & Trump’s team is distracted by schemes to steal Ukraine’s mineral wealth >> Does this free up the less risk-adverse Europeans & other allies to not stand in the way of Ukraine employing more aggressive military tactics & weapons? Hope so…