You know how they always say you need to make a plan about what to do in case of emergencies? Before you’re in the middle of the fire, power outage, tornado, hurricane, earthquake, etc?
It seems like it would be helpful for us to take a look a the key races that will be won or lost tonight – now, when aren’t having an emotional response to the results – and talk about various ways to evaluate the landscape and interpret the results.
Anybody game?
First, let’s identify the key elections today:
- Wisconsin Supreme Court – Susan Crawford
- Wisconsin State Superintendent – Jill Underly
- Wisconsin Amendment – we are rooting for NO
- Special Election in Florida – FL-06
- Special Election in Florida – FL-01
- Have I missed any elections we should be paying attention to?
Who are the people we should follow for the Wisconsin races? (I’ll add links here if you supply them.)
Polls close in Wisconsin at 8 pm Central (9 pm blog time)
Wisconsin Supreme Court – Susan Crawford
Does it matter to Wisconsin and/or the rest of the country whether the election is close or not?
Or does it only matter who wins and who loses?
What if Susan Crawford wins in a landslide?
What if Susan Crawford wins in a squeaker?
What if Susan Crawford loses in a squeaker?
What if the odius Brad Schimel wins in a landslide?
Wisconsin State Superintendent – Jill Underly
What if Jill Underly wins in a landslide?
What if Jill Underly wins in a squeaker?
What if Jill Underly doesn’t win?
Either way, does it matter to Wisconsin and/or the rest of the country if it’s close or not?
Or does it only matter who wins and who loses?
Why is this election a big deal to anyone outside of Wisconsin?
Wisconsin Amendment – we are rooting for NO
What are the details and implications related to this amendment?
Does it only matter in Wisconsin who wins and who loses?
Is this amendment a big deal to anyone outside of Wisconsin?
Who are the people we should follow for the Florida races? (I’ll add links here if you supply them.)
Special Election in Florida – FL-06
Trump was very concerned last week that Fl-06 migth only be won by 8 points.
With 87% reporting, it looks like a 10-point spread.
Is that a victory?
What does that tell us?
Polls close in Floria at 7 pm Eastern (7 pm blog time)
Special Election in Florida – FL-01
What if a miracle occurs and Gay Valinont (D) wins?
What will it take for a Democratic loss in Fl-01 to be a victory?
What if the result is what one would expect in a normal year, what does that tell us?
Here we go.
SiubhanDuinne
In the Jill Underly section, I think you need to do a search and replace on the names. Otherwise, an excellent, nuanced way to evaluate our reactions to a range of possible scenarios. Thanks for doing this.
Ivan X
Who cares? BOOKER. It might mean nothing, but somehow it means everything to me right now
ETA: I don’t literally mean who cares. This is all we’ve got.
Harrison Wesley
Raw Story says Randy Fine has been declared the winner in FL 6.
Ivan X
@Harrison Wesley: I hate everything.
rikyrah
Want Wisconsin to turn out right.
The Florida seats…..let’s see how close they come.
Scout211
NBC has called it for Fine
It was closer than it should have been and Republicans had to go all in. So that is a positive.
frosty
@Harrison Wesley: We didn’t get much time to go through WG’s scenarios, unfortunately.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Ivan X:
From a +30% to a +10% is a pretty significant swing though imo
Dangerman
Underly appears overly … something.
ETA: SD got it in one while I dawdled.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Thanks for the hot tip about names!
WaterGirl
@Harrison Wesley: I think you posted that before I had updated the post with the results.
WaterGirl
@frosty: There’s still Wisconsin?
And I still think there’s a lot to talk about re: FL and what the results in FL-06 tell us.
Anyone know the results in FL-01? I’m sure the D lost, but by how much?
WaterGirl
Holy fuck-ski, Gay is winning with 37% of the vote in.
I don’t know FL so I have no idea which votes are in already or anything about the areas. Still, that’s promising!
WaterGirl
RevRick
@Harrison Wesley:
@Ivan X:
We want through this nonsense in 2017 with special elections to fill seats of those elevated to Trump’s Cabinet, when there was endless moaning about Democratic candidates coming up short. Well…
Let’s not do that to ourselves again.
This loss is a twenty point shift towards the Democrats. This is in line with results from other special elections this year. It suggests that Democrats can pick up 20 House seats in 2026, giving us a comfortable majority.
WaterGirl
Are we all Booker, all the time right now? :-)
@RevRick: Not including you! :-)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@RevRick:
I really hope that holds in Wisconsin. The state Supreme Court seat is incredibly important to keep
tobie
@WaterGirl: If Gay Valimont pulls this out, that would be breathtaking.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Booker hasn’t done anything new in the last 5 minutes. He’s old news.
RevRick
@WaterGirl: Early votes = Democrats voting
Scout211
@WaterGirl: Latest update is essentially tied.
another update
Now Patronis is ahead. 51%-48%
WaterGirl
At 65% of votes in, the R is now ahead. But not by much.
RevRick
@RevRick: And with 65% in Patronis is up 51-48
Eolirin
@RevRick: More than a 20 point swing if we look at the 2022 election results instead of the 2024 ones. Presidential years aren’t going to be as representative for 2026.
WaterGirl
Harrison Wesley
@WaterGirl: Sorry – I had just come over from RS. Too quick on the draw.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: Wow, how much more than 20 points?
Nice to see you, either you haven’t been here much or I haven’t been reading enough Balloon Juice.
WaterGirl
@Harrison Wesley: RS?
RevRick
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I’ll bet $250 that Crawford wins by 12%, and if I lose it will go to any campaign of WaterGirl’s choosing.
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: I have too much real life stuff going on to post that much, but I’ve been poking in here and there.
Waltz had over a 50 point win in 2022. 75.3 to 24.7. So it’s a 40 point swing from that. Granted, there isn’t a Democrat in the white house. That’ll skew the numbers some. But this is an extremely red district.
WaterGirl
WaterGirl
Still, in Nov 2024,
PatronisGaetz got 66% of the vote, the Dem had 34%.This is a huge swing. 13 points in 3 months.
edit: i was wondering about 2022, so glad you posted this.
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: That’s going to be a bigger loss than that, but still very close for an incredibly red district.
Harrison Wesley
@WaterGirl: Raw Story
Steve LaBonne
@Eolirin: And might worry some vulnerable Republican reps even more than they already are.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: I think both of the FL special elections should put the fear of god into the Republicans.
*if they actually believed in the god they pretend to serve.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: At 89% in, t’s now 55 R -43 D, so the split is getting wider. Must be all republican districts still coming in
edit:
At 93% in, t’s now 56 R -42 D, so the split is still getting wider. Must be all republican districts still coming in.
Mousebumples
Wisconsin level setting – polls close at 8pm (central), but multiple Milwaukee precinct are running out of ballots and printing more. Reports from Milwaukee Central Count (absentee ballots can’t be tabulated until Election Day) are that that won’t be done until after midnight.
We’ll get some results earlier, but they’re more likely to be from smaller (redder) areas.
If it’s a blowout, we might get an early call (eg 11pm blog time), but with lots of early/absentee voting, we may not know until after my bedtime.
cmorenc
@WaterGirl: which are GOP reps and Senators more afraid of: God or Trump/Musk? Evidence suggests the latter.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: I am prepping my Wisconsin post now. If I put it up now, can you make that comment there?
RevRick
@WaterGirl: Same day voters skew Republican
Mousebumples
We’ve talked about Crawford’s race some on this blog already, I think, but the Superintendent race has largely flown under the radar.
Underly is the incumbent, succeeding Evers, I believe, after he was elected as governor. Her opponent is “independent” but endorsed by Moms For Liberty and a lobbyist for charter schools.
There were fewer ads for that race (than what I saw, anyhow), and my local area didn’t even have Underly signs.
WaterGirl
@cmorenc: Or their god has been replaced by the new duo: Trump-Musk.
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: 👍 I’m working through your questions, but I can copy responses over.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: I just put it up, if that helps.
Miki
@Ivan X: I’m right there with you, brother.
It’s historical. It’s brilliant. It’s exactly what I needed.
And I am not alone.
rikyrah
these swings in Florida are why Stefanik had to stay put
Mousebumples
Amendment – I’ll happily defer to a lawyer (Omnes?), but my understanding is –
1) Current voter ID law is a law – and more easily changed if the Dems take back the Statehouse in 2026.
2) I believe there’s also a challenge in the Courts that voter ID law is unconstitutional. If the Constitution says it’s required, I think that would undermine that argument.
3) Might also be part of the plan to make it difficult for married women to vote.
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: I’ll work on moving them over. 👍
RevRick
@WaterGirl: Patronis replaces Matt Gaetz who won re-election, but resigned instead of taking his seat.
tobie
I hope Weil runs again in 2026. He had a good ground game with a lot of local canvassers. I’ll probably return to doorknocking in southeastern PA, though part of me wants to continue phonebanking so I can write my book Memoirs of a Democratic Phonebanker. I’ve got 30 years of stories to tell.
RevRick
@WaterGirl: Former GOP Congressman David Jolly on MSNBC right now: “GOP Representatives (looking at tonight’s results) are terrified.”
WaterGirl
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: The PA upsets scared the Rs, so hopefully these swings will distress them, too. Even though these aren’t wins.
WaterGirl
@RevRick:
That brought a smile to my my face, thank you.
WaterGirl
@RevRick: I knew that! I’ll fix my comment.
RevRick
@WaterGirl: Did you notice my bet in comment 29? :)
MazeDancer
Results according to Taniel:
—GOP wins #FL01 by 15%.
(Trump won here by 37% in November.)
—GOP wins #FL06 by 15%.
(Trump won here by 30% in November
Dems mighta won NY-21.
WaterGirl
@RevRick: I did not! Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I assume if she wins by more than that, you don’t lose? :-)
WaterGirl
@MazeDancer: We might have!
Only consolation is that she lost her #3 leadership position. Some fake made-up token leadership-ish position isn’t going to make her happy. So at least there’s that!
Screwed by FFOTUS, maybe that will come in handy for our side at some point?