Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

When I was faster i was always behind.

The lights are all blinking red.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

Trumpflation is an intolerable hardship for every American, and it’s Trump’s fault.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

You are here: Home / Elections / How to Think About the Results of Key Elections Tonight?

How to Think About the Results of Key Elections Tonight?

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You know how they always say you need to make a plan about what to do in case of emergencies?  Before you’re in the middle of the fire, power outage, tornado, hurricane, earthquake, etc?

It seems like it would be helpful for us to take a look a the key races that will be won or lost tonight – now, when aren’t having an emotional response to the results – and talk about various ways to evaluate the landscape and interpret the results.

Anybody game?

First, let’s identify the key elections today:

  • Wisconsin Supreme Court – Susan Crawford
  • Wisconsin State Superintendent – Jill Underly
  • Wisconsin Amendment – we are rooting for NO
  • Special Election in Florida – FL-06
  • Special Election in Florida – FL-01
  • Have I missed any elections we should be paying attention to?

Who are the people we should follow for the Wisconsin races?  (I’ll add links here if you supply them.)

Polls close in Wisconsin at 8 pm Central  (9 pm blog time)

Wisconsin Supreme Court – Susan Crawford

Does it matter to Wisconsin and/or the rest of the country whether the election is close or not?

Or does it only matter who wins and who loses?

What if Susan Crawford wins in a landslide?

What if Susan Crawford wins in a squeaker?

What if Susan Crawford loses in a squeaker?

What if the odius Brad Schimel wins in a landslide?

Wisconsin State Superintendent – Jill Underly

What if Jill Underly wins in a landslide?

What if Jill Underly wins in a squeaker?

What if Jill Underly doesn’t win?

Either way, does it matter to Wisconsin and/or the rest of the country if it’s close or not?

Or does it only matter who wins and who loses?

Why is this election a big deal to anyone outside of Wisconsin?

Wisconsin Amendment – we are rooting for NO

What are the details and implications related to this amendment?

Does it only matter  in Wisconsin who wins and who loses?

Is this amendment a big deal to anyone outside of Wisconsin?

Who are the people we should follow for the Florida races?  (I’ll add links here if you supply them.)

Special Election in Florida – FL-06

How to Think About the Results of Key Elections Tonight?

Trump was very concerned last week that Fl-06 migth only be won by 8 points.

With 87% reporting, it looks like a 10-point spread.

Is that a victory?

What does that tell us?

Polls close in Floria at 7 pm Eastern  (7 pm blog time)

How to Think About the Results of Key Elections Tonight? 1

Special Election in Florida – FL-01

What if a miracle occurs and Gay Valinont (D) wins?

What will it take for a Democratic loss in Fl-01 to be a victory?

What if the result is what one would expect in a normal year, what does that tell us?

Here we go.

Reader Interactions

60Comments

  1. 1.

    SiubhanDuinne

    In the Jill Underly section, I think you need to do a search and replace on the names. Otherwise, an excellent, nuanced way to evaluate our reactions to a range of possible scenarios. Thanks for doing this.

  2. 2.

    Ivan X

    Who cares? BOOKER. It might mean nothing, but somehow it means everything to me right now

    ETA: I don’t literally mean who cares. This is all we’ve got.

  6. 6.

    Scout211

    NBC has called it for Fine

    Republican state Sen. Randy Fine has prevailed in a special congressional election in Florida on Tuesday, NBC News projects, though the race is shaping up to be closer than November’s results in the deeply Republican district.

    Fine was leading Democrat Josh Weil 54%-46% when the NBC News Decision Desk called the race with 73% of the expected vote in.

    It was closer than it should have been and Republicans had to go all in.  So that is a positive.

    “Panic and money can solve a lot of problems,” said a Republican consultant working on Fine’s campaign.

    Democrats, meanwhile, took solace in Weil appearing to perform better than former Vice President Kamala Harris.

    “In 2025, Democrats have overperformed the top of the ticket in nearly every election as voters turn out in blue, purple, and red districts to voice their anger at Donald Trump and Elon Musk,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement. “Tonight was no different.”

  12. 12.

    WaterGirl

    @frosty: There’s still Wisconsin?

    And I still think there’s a lot to talk about re: FL and what the results in FL-06 tell us.

    Anyone know the results in FL-01?  I’m sure the D lost, but by how much?

  13. 13.

    WaterGirl

    Holy fuck-ski, Gay is winning with 37% of the vote in.

    I don’t know FL so I have no idea which votes are in already or anything about the areas.  Still, that’s promising!

  15. 15.

    RevRick

    @Harrison Wesley:

    @Ivan X:

    We want through this nonsense in 2017 with special elections to fill seats of those elevated to Trump’s Cabinet, when there was endless moaning about Democratic candidates coming up short. Well…

    Let’s not do that to ourselves again.
    This loss is a twenty point shift towards the Democrats. This is in line with results from other special elections this year. It suggests that Democrats can pick up 20 House seats in 2026, giving us a comfortable majority.

  17. 17.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @RevRick:

    I really hope that holds in Wisconsin. The state Supreme Court seat is incredibly important to keep

  24. 24.

    Eolirin

    @RevRick: More than a 20 point swing if we look at the 2022 election results instead of the 2024 ones. Presidential years aren’t going to be as representative for 2026.

  27. 27.

    WaterGirl

    @Eolirin: Wow, how much more than 20 points?

    Nice to see you, either you haven’t been here much or I haven’t been reading enough Balloon Juice.

  30. 30.

    Eolirin

    @WaterGirl: I have too much real life stuff going on to post that much, but I’ve been poking in here and there.

    Waltz had over a 50 point win in 2022. 75.3 to 24.7. So it’s a 40 point swing from that. Granted, there isn’t a Democrat in the white house. That’ll skew the numbers some. But this is an extremely red district.

  32. 32.

    WaterGirl

    Still, in Nov 2024, Patronis Gaetz got 66% of the vote, the Dem had 34%.

    This is a huge swing.  13 points in 3 months.

    edit:  i was wondering about 2022, so glad you posted this.

    Waltz had over a 50 point win in 2022. 75.3 to 24.7. So it’s a 40 point swing from that. Granted, there isn’t a Democrat in the white house. That’ll skew the numbers some. But this is an extremely red district.

  36. 36.

    WaterGirl

    @Eolirin: I think both of the FL special elections should put the fear of god into the Republicans.

    *if they actually believed in the god they pretend to serve.

  37. 37.

    WaterGirl

    @WaterGirl:  At 89% in, t’s now 55 R -43 D, so the split is getting wider.  Must be all republican districts still coming in

    edit:

    At 93% in, t’s now 56 R -42 D, so the split is still getting wider.  Must be all republican districts still coming in.

  38. 38.

    Mousebumples

    Wisconsin level setting – polls close at 8pm (central), but multiple Milwaukee precinct are running out of ballots and printing more. Reports from Milwaukee Central Count (absentee ballots can’t be tabulated until Election Day) are that that won’t be done until after midnight.

    We’ll get some results earlier, but they’re more likely to be from smaller (redder) areas.

    If it’s a blowout, we might get an early call (eg 11pm blog time), but with lots of early/absentee voting, we may not know until after my bedtime.

  42. 42.

    Mousebumples

    We’ve talked about Crawford’s race some on this blog already, I think, but the Superintendent race has largely flown under the radar.

    Underly is the incumbent, succeeding Evers, I believe, after he was elected as governor. Her opponent is “independent” but endorsed by Moms For Liberty and a lobbyist for charter schools.

    There were fewer ads for that race (than what I saw, anyhow), and my local area didn’t even have Underly signs.

  46. 46.

    Miki

    @Ivan X: I’m right there with you, brother.

    It’s historical. It’s brilliant. It’s exactly what I needed.

    And I am not alone.

  48. 48.

    Mousebumples

    Amendment – I’ll happily defer to a lawyer (Omnes?), but my understanding is –

    1) Current voter ID law is a law – and more easily changed if the Dems take back the Statehouse in 2026.

    2) I believe there’s also a challenge in the Courts that voter ID law is unconstitutional. If the Constitution says it’s required, I think that would undermine that argument.

    3) Might also be part of the plan to make it difficult for married women to vote.

  51. 51.

    tobie

    I hope Weil runs again in 2026. He had a good ground game with a lot of local canvassers. I’ll probably return to doorknocking in southeastern PA, though part of me wants to continue phonebanking so I can write my book Memoirs of a Democratic Phonebanker. I’ve got 30 years of stories to tell.

  52. 52.

    RevRick

    @WaterGirl: Former GOP Congressman David Jolly on MSNBC right now: “GOP Representatives (looking at tonight’s results) are terrified.”

  53. 53.

    WaterGirl

    Quasi-final margin in the two Florida specials:

    —GOP wins #FL01 by 15%.
    (Trump won here by 37% in November.)
    —GOP wins #FL06 by 14%.
    (Trump won here by 30% in November.)

    The swings are in line with what we saw in the IA & PA upsets earlier this year.

    — Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 7:45 PM

  55. 55.

    WaterGirl

    @RevRick:

    Former GOP Congressman David Jolly on MSNBC right now: “GOP Representatives (looking at tonight’s results) are terrified.”

    That brought a smile to my my face, thank you.

  58. 58.

    MazeDancer

    Results according to Taniel:

    —GOP wins #FL01 by 15%.
    (Trump won here by 37% in November.)
    —GOP wins #FL06 by 15%.
    (Trump won here by 30% in November

    Dems mighta won NY-21.

  59. 59.

    WaterGirl

    @RevRick: I did not!  Thanks for bringing it to my attention.  I assume if she wins by more than that, you don’t lose? :-)

  60. 60.

    WaterGirl

    @MazeDancer: We might have!

    Only consolation is that she lost her #3 leadership position.  Some fake made-up token leadership-ish position isn’t going to make her happy.  So at least there’s that!

    Screwed by FFOTUS, maybe that will come in handy for our side at some point?

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