Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Come on, man.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

A fool as well as an oath-breaker.

No one could have predicted…

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

So very ready.

Just because you believe it, that does not make it true.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

In my day, never was longer.

You are here: Home / Elections / Wisconsin Races are Up Next, Likely a Late Night (but maybe not super late)

Wisconsin Races are Up Next, Likely a Late Night (but maybe not super late)

by | 146 Comments

This post is in: 

It seems like it would be helpful for us to take a look a the key races that will be won or lost tonight – now, when aren’t having an emotional response to the results – and talk about various ways to evaluate the landscape and interpret the results.

Anybody game?

First, let’s identify the key Wisconsin elections today:

  • Wisconsin Supreme Court – Susan Crawford
  • Wisconsin State Superintendent – Jill Underly
  • Wisconsin Amendment – we are rooting for NO

Who are the people we should follow for the Wisconsin races?   Per Mousbumples & Omnes:

Dan Shafer

Taniel

Polls close in Wisconsin at 8 pm Central  (9 pm blog time)

Wisconsin Supreme Court – Susan Crawford

Does it matter to Wisconsin and/or the rest of the country whether the election is close or not?

Or does it only matter who wins and who loses?

What if Susan Crawford wins in a landslide?

What if Susan Crawford wins in a squeaker?

What if Susan Crawford loses in a squeaker?

What if the odius Brad Schimel wins in a landslide?

Wisconsin State Superintendent – Jill Underly

What if Jill Underly wins in a landslide?

What if Jill Underly wins in a squeaker?

What if Jill Underly doesn’t win?

Either way, does it matter to Wisconsin and/or the rest of the country if it’s close or not?

Or does it only matter who wins and who loses?

Why is this election a big deal to anyone outside of Wisconsin?

Wisconsin Amendment – we are rooting for NO

What are the details and implications related to this amendment?

Does it only matter  in Wisconsin who wins and who loses?

Is this amendment a big deal to anyone outside of Wisconsin?

Any thoughts on any of this as we wait for Wisconsin results?

Reader Interactions

146Comments

  2. 2.

    Martin

    Watergirl fucking stomping on Cole’s post. Well played WG. You gave him mere seconds.

  3. 3.

    Mousebumples

    Reposting comments from the FL post below…

    Wisconsin level setting – polls close at 8pm (central), but multiple Milwaukee precinct are running out of ballots and printing more. Reports from Milwaukee Central Count (absentee ballots can’t be tabulated until Election Day) are that that won’t be done until after midnight.

    We’ll get some results earlier, but they’re more likely to be from smaller (redder) areas.

    If it’s a blowout, we might get an early call (eg 11pm blog time), but with lots of early/absentee voting, we may not know until after my bedtime.

    Semi related – I’ll probably be posting some skeets here as polls close.

  4. 4.

    Mousebumples

    Another comment from downstairs –

    We’ve talked about Crawford’s race some on this blog already, I think, but the Superintendent race has largely flown under the radar.

    Underly is the incumbent, succeeding Evers, I believe, after he was elected as governor. Her opponent is “independent” but endorsed by Moms For Liberty and is/was a lobbyist for charter schools.

    There were fewer ads for that race (than what I saw, anyhow), and my local area didn’t even have Underly signs.

  5. 5.

    Mousebumples

    And comment #3 from downstairs –

    Amendment – I’ll happily defer to a lawyer (Omnes?), but my understanding is –

    1) Current voter ID law is a law – and more easily changed if the Dems take back the Statehouse in 2026.

    2) I believe there’s also a challenge in the Courts that voter ID law is unconstitutional. If the Constitution says it’s required, I think that would undermine that argument.

    3) Might also be part of the plan to make it difficult for married women to vote.

  8. 8.

    Mousebumples

    wkow.com/news/election/historic-turnout-causes-ballot-shortages-at-milwaukee-polling-sites/article_2…

    Milwaukee election officials are reporting ballot shortages at a number of voting sites in the city due to what officials call “historic turnout,” WISN 12 News reports.

    Officials tell our ABC affiliate they are urging people to stay in line to vote and not leave as they work to bring more ballots to locations.

    Spokesperson Melissa Howard sent an update to news outlets at 6:45 p.m. Tuesday writing, “We thank residents for their patience. As long as voters are in line by 8PM, they will be able to vote. No voters will be turned away and voters can call 414-286-VOTE with any concerns or questions. We have dozens of field staff working to get resources to polling locations during rush hour. We apologize to Milwaukeeans but proud to see the enthusiasm and turnout.”

    High Milwaukee turnout seems good. 🤞

  11. 11.

    japa21

    @Mousebumples:  Watch for allegations of fraud.  There should never be a need to have to print extra ballots.  I am an election judge in Cook County, and we are always given more ballots than there are registered voters to cover ballots that are screwed up by the voter and same day registrations.

    Note that I am not saying there is anything fraudulent going on, it’s just that only Republicans can get away with even the appearance of fraud (hell, they can get away with real fraud).  And this could have been easily avoided.

  13. 13.

    Martin

    @WaterGirl: Not bitching, I think it and all the drama around bigfooting is funny. Plus I will always side with someone who steps on the boss (though I continue to hold you’re the real boss here).

  14. 14.

    Mousebumples

    @japa21: there will be allegations either way, especially if Schimel loses. (Hovde squawked about fraud after November.)

    I feel this is common in Wisconsin, especially for non November elections with higher than anticipated turnout. Likely a way in which Wisconsin and Illinois elections are run differently. But I’m not a poll worker, so that’s a guess.

  16. 16.

    Mousebumples

    @WaterGirl: Dan Shafer runs the Recombobulation Area. Taniel reports for Bolts, and on elections across the country. Not sure who you’re thinking of. 🤷‍♀️

  20. 20.

    WaterGirl

    So it’s past 8 pm central, but some of the polls are open because of ballot issues and lines.

    Can any precincts start announcing in Wisconsin even even one polling place is still open?

  21. 21.

    MagdaInBlack

    @Mousebumples: Dan Shafer is a regular on Chicago’s progressive radio. ( wcpt 820 am )

    Folks from the station have been doing a lot of door-knocking etc in Wisconsin for this race.

  23. 23.

    Mousebumples

    @WaterGirl: Yeah, if an individual precinct/ward has all votes tabulated, I think they can report. But I’m guessing there’s “polls are closed, confirm tally” things to do. (eg, does the number of ballots counted match the number of voters, etc.) But I think we’ll get some numbers in the next hour.

    I wouldn’t freak out (good or bad) since it may not be apparent where the numbers are coming from. But we’ll see…

  24. 24.

    Mousebumples

    @MagdaInBlack: nice! I just found my local Civic Media radio station this afternoon. It was nice to listen as I was doing kiddo transport after work.

  33. 33.

    Mousebumples

    Notable counties to be aware of –

    1) Dane – Madison

    2) Milwaukee (Milwaukee)

    3) WOW counties – traditionally ruby red, these 3 countries surround Milwaukee (Washington, Ozaukee, Waukesha). Washington is still ruby red. Ozaukee is more reddish purple, and Waukesha has trended more of a pale red. Schimel will try to run up the tally here

    4) BOW counties – swingy counties (more purple) in NE WI (Brown – home to Green Bay, Outagamie – home to Appleton and Lawrence, for blog alumni, and Winnebago – home to Oshkosh).

  35. 35.

    Mousebumples

    Per MJS, with 17% reporting statewide, we’re at –

    Crawford, up 55/45
    Underly, up 51.5/48.5
    Yes, up 60/40 (siiiiigh

    Update… New data..

    30% reporting –

    Crawford, up 57/43
    Underly, up 54/46
    Yes, up 61/39 (siiiiigh)

  42. 42.

    Mousebumples

    @NotMax: in terms of full reporting? I think that’s reasonable to say.

    In other news, we’ve got our first called race.

    Yes wins for the Amendment. Sigh.

    ETA – Race is called for Crawford too! 🎉

  44. 44.

    Eolirin

    @NotMax: polls aren’t even closed there yet in some places because of the ballot issues, so they’re going to come in very late.

  45. 45.

    lowtechcyclist

    @NotMax:

    And they would tonight anyway, they’re short on ballots, and people are having to wait in line for precincts to get resupplied.

  46. 46.

    japa21

    AP called the amendment issue 10 minutes ago. Wrong result. Voter ID is one of those issues that a lot of people don’t understand. They think, what’s the big deal. It is, of course a big deal.

  47. 47.

    Eolirin

    @japa21: They don’t just think what’s the big deal, they think it makes elections more secure, and think there is a need to do so.

  48. 48.

    Mousebumples

    Crawford wins, per Wasserman screenshot posted from Twitter to bsky. 🎉🎉🎉

  63. 63.

    Another Scott

    Excellent news for Judge Crawford and Wisconsin!

    Meanwhile, …

    bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsky.social/post/3llsaju3jpc2f

    Aaron Fritschner
    ‪@fritschner.bsky.social‬

    Did not expecto Patronum to have such a close race in an R-+37 seat

    ‪Natalie Grim‬ ‪@nataliegrim.bsky.social‬
    1h

    CNN projecting Jimmy Patronis (R) defeats Gay Valimont (D) for FL-1.

    Current margin shows Patronis +7.8.

    This is similarly a historically very red district. In November, this district was Trump +37.2 and Gaetz +32.

    April 1, 2025 at 9:32 PM

    Yeah, if more than a few +25 seats are in play, then we have a good chance of stopping the monsters in January 2027. Or sooner.

    Thanks for everyone in the trenches, knocking on doors, writing postcards, calling, and doing behind the scenes work with databases, donating, and all the rest. It’s all important.

    Eyes on the prizes.

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  73. 73.

    chemiclord

    Voter ID laws are ones that just simply “make sense” to low information voters, who very rarely think to examine the details of these laws.  I’m not sure what can be done about that when the voters simply don’t want, and don’t care, to learn.

  74. 74.

    WaterGirl

    This win is such a relief!

    Sorry about the voter ID thing.  Hoping it can be declared unconstitutional.

    What about Wisconsin State Superintendent – Jill Underly?

    Wisconsin Races are Up Next, Likely a Late Night (but maybe not super late) 1

  75. 75.

    Mousebumples

    So, fair warning everyone, Wisconsin will have annual #SCOWIS elections for awhile now.

    This year, a liberal Justice was retiring (and will be replaced by Judge Crawford!).

    Next few years? The following seats are up –

    • 2026 – Rebecca Bradley (conservative)
    • 2027 – Annette Ziegler (conservative)
    • 2028 – Rebecca Dallet (liberal)

    We could replace up to 2 conservatives, which would be nice. Having a 6-3 or 7-2 Court would be much less stressful.

  76. 76.

    Eduardo

    I will sleep well tonight, I hadn’t checked anything, watching reruns of 6 feet under.

    Thank you, Wisconsin! 🙏🙏🙏

  79. 79.

    me

    @WaterGirl:

    Sorry about the voter ID thing. Hoping it can be declared unconstitutional.

    It’s a constitutional amendment so unfortunately no. I believe it preserves the status quo but makes it basically impossible to reverse.

  80. 80.

    JML

    My WI sources are saying it’s done and dusted for Crawford, which is huge. Looking very good for Underly as well.

    Big sigh on the Voter ID amendment; those are hard to convince normies that it’s bad. Too many people who aren’t engaged just think “what’s the big deal? everyone has ID”.

    But a big ol’ EFF YOU to the evil Brad Schimel and his master E-Muskrat.

  81. 81.

    Martin

    Lesson here in the WI court race. The initiative to add voter id as a constitutional amendment passed ~60/40 despite supporting the democrat by equal margins. Democrats need to shift their messaging on that issue from opposing voter id to placing constitutional requirements onto states to make state IDs free and easy to get (which carries a bunch of additional benefits), or at a minimum tie these issues together. It’s easier for an undocumented immigrant to get a drivers license in CA which doesn’t have voter ID than it is for a citizen to get a drivers license in TX which does. That’s a serious problem.

  84. 84.

    WaterGirl

    @japa21: From Mousebumples earlier this evening:

    1) Current voter ID law is a law – and more easily changed if the Dems take back the Statehouse in 2026.

    2) I believe there’s also a challenge in the Courts that voter ID law is unconstitutional. If the Constitution says it’s required, I think that would undermine that argument.

  86. 86.

    Eolirin

    @Eolirin: If we also massively outperform in the senate, we could maybe actually take a majority back or at least make it easier to do so in 2028.(This involves winning in Maine and NC and Alaska and Georgia and possibly Texas or Iowa and Kansas. And historically the Senate races don’t go as well for us in wave years, so it’s a heavy lift)

    But even having all of congress back won’t stop Trump by itself.

  87. 87.

    me

    @Martin: Yup, it’s effectively permanent in Wisconsin now so getting people IDs needs to the priority rather then continuing to try to undo it.

  88. 88.

    Eolirin

    @me: If the Dems can take the legislature they can at least make it much easier to get IDs.

    If we ever have control of the Supreme Court, we can possibly get all such rules declared unconstitutional. They’re a form of poll tax in a bunch of ways.

  89. 89.

    WaterGirl

    @Eolirin: I continue to say that all bets are off as far as conventional wisdom goes.

    We are in uncharted territory.  The table has been tipped over, the cards cut up, and the chips melted.

    Tonight was a very good night.

    We will be sleeping well for this one night – the other side, not so much!

  90. 90.

    Mousebumples

    bsky.app/profile/ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3llsbrox2qc2s

    He wore the cheesehead hat in WI. Spent $20 million. Paid people to sign petitions. Paid people to canvas. Did million dollar giveaways. A rally. TV interviews. But I guess people in Wisconsin didn’t appreciate an oligarch trying to buy their civil liberties.

    {ALT TEXT photo of mElon in a Cheesehead}

    And apparently Rep. Van Orden is worried SCOWIS will redistrict the House lines and he’ll lose in 2026.

    Don’t threaten me with a good time!

  91. 91.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Martin: I know zero about the demographics and voter dynamics of Voter ID in WI, but here in solidly blue RI, Voter ID passed some years ago, and the persistent rumor was that it was due to a struggle for control in the (heavily D) legislature between the Black and Hispanic/Latino caucuses.

  92. 92.

    me

    @Eolirin: Yeah and taking back the state house also provides a chance for some good constitutional amendments like abortion rights.

  94. 94.

    Martin

    @Gin & Tonic: What annoys me about this issue is that making it easier/cheaper for people to get an ID should be something that Democrats support, so why not fight the issue from that direction? That would probably also get 60% support. That’s a solid winning issue.

  95. 95.

    Mousebumples

    Other than the Amendment, it’s been a good night.

    Crawford wins, Bucks win, Brewers *finally* win, and my preferred local candidates are ahead, though those races aren’t called yet. (same with Underly)

    🍻

  96. 96.

    Mousebumples

    Damn, looks like the Underly race just got much closer. That one may be a nail biter.

    Eta – I might have misclicked somewhere.

    61% in statewide, and it’s 53.4/46.6 for Underly. 🤞🤞

  97. 97.

    chemiclord

    @Martin: Honestly, that’s the tack Dems should have been taking from the start.  There’s simply far too much bad faith messaging with that topic that sounds like good faith.  It simply “makes sense” to anyone who doesn’t want to delve into the topic, and that is a staggeringly large percentage of people in this country.

  98. 98.

    Eolirin

    @Martin: I think we should do that, but I’m also clear eyed about the fact that the second we do, if we’re loud about it, they’ll make it about how we’re enabling criminals and “illegals” to fraudulently obtain IDs. So I don’t see this ever being a campaign issue. At least not a direct one. We could campaign on reducing fees and making it easier to deal with various governmental red tape, but it’d have to be pitched more broadly.

  99. 99.

    RevRick

    @Eolirin: We need to hold Georgia, Michigan and Minnesota. Maine looks doable since Collins unfavorables are way up. North Carolina is a reach.

  100. 100.

    sentient ai from the future

    why are we still giving unanimous consent? this is a thing i dont understand. has anyone been able to get their senator to explain the reasoning for this to them?

  101. 101.

    cmorenc

    This Wisconsin win is the first bright ray of sunshine since January, and gives me hope this is a true sign things are beginning to turn after the public has experienced two months of Trump2.

  102. 102.

    Eolirin

    @RevRick: North Carolina is always a reach, but also consistently very close, nowadays. If we’re going to have a wave election in the senate, it goes before the other states we might be able to pick up.

    I think, for instance, Peltola has a shot if she runs in Alaska, if we have a 5-10 point shift in the electorate. But on a night where Peltola wins, we’ve almost certainly got NC and Maine. And we might even have Kansas.

  106. 106.

    Trivia Man

    @me: in Wisconsin some of the dmv offices (that issue ID!) are only open the first and third Wednesday of the month. Two days. And in areas without public transit.

  110. 110.

    RevRick

    @Eolirin: Kansas, surprisingly, is a state that might move purple as it has a high percentage of the population which is college educated.

  113. 113.

    WaterGirl

    I am exhausted and going to bed.

    Dear Universe,

    Please do not allow the R to win the State Superintendent race while I am sleeping.

    WaterGirl

  116. 116.

    Juju

    @RevRick: It depends on who runs against Tillis in NC. If former governor Roy Cooper runs, I like his chances against Tillis.  Cooper does well in state wide elections.

  119. 119.

    Mousebumples

    bsky.app/profile/sarahvb.bsky.social/post/3llsdfzkqfk2l

    I think Musk played an outsize role in this. I heard phone bankers use phrases like “Elon Musk is trying to buy this election” and that had a real impact.

     

    bsky.app/profile/dicknixon.bsky.social/post/3llsdl34d5s24

    You have to look harder for LaFollette in Wisconsin than you used to but he is still there. People have their sides but there is still a strong element of “no son of a bitch owns me.”

  121. 121.

    Mousebumples

    bsky.app/profile/jpgorman.bsky.social/post/3llse5pwomk2z

    I don’t know what Wisconsinites are going to do without having the most insane and hateful political ads that have ever been produced beamed into our faces a million times a day, it’s been like two years, we might be like those deep sea fish that explode if you bring them into too shallow of water.

    We really didn’t get a break after November, it’s been so, so much.

  122. 122.

    Mousebumples

    And the Superintendent race has been called by MJS with 74% reporting. 52.5 to 47.5 for Underly! 🎉

  123. 123.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    This is such a relief! I was having bad feelings about this race on account the higher early turnout numbers for conservative parts of the state. I’m so glad they were wrong though. Congrats to Crawford!

    I didn’t give any money to her campaign but I wrote about 70 or so postcards for her with the rest out of 115 going to Josh Weil and Gay Valimont. Shame about them, but that’s FL I guess. Weil especially got it fairly close considering the district. Seemed like a nice dude

    The best part, besides keeping the WI Supreme Court out of conservative hands and continuing reforms is that Musk, for all his millions, for all his bribes, the stupid rally he did, none of it mattered! Hell, it probably hurt Schimel! This was one election he couldn’t buy and hopefully it won’t be the last

  127. 127.

    Mousebumples

    @me: 🙌

    Nice work!

    With the exception of the Amendment, my voting choices are doing well. Local races still not called, though.

  129. 129.

    The Audacity of Krope

    @Martin: What annoys me about this issue is that making it easier/cheaper for people to get an ID should be something that Democrats support, so why not fight the issue from that direction?

    They do. And the suggestion that voter ID is fine if it can be provided for free was always part of the conversation.

    Problem is, you can’t hear Democrats’ arguments over Republican shrieking about Democrats wanting undocumented immigrants to vote and amplification of that shrieking by the MSM.

    There shouldn’t be a cost barrier to vote or unreasonable logistical hurdles. You want voter ID? Fine. But then every eligible voter needs reasonable access to the government institutions that provide those IDs, not two days per month; there needs to be assistance for complex cases, it needs to be free, and all that includes the supplemental documentation too.

    ETA: Makes sense. One should have a right to their own identity and the government has a definite interest in protecting that for people.

  130. 130.

    RaflW

    Are Republicans maybe going to start understanding that Elon is a liability? I sure hope so.

  132. 132.

    mvr

    I just opened my computer to an email from Susan Crawford saying she won. Haven’t yet read this thread yet. But I hope not to be disappointed.

    I’m crying.

  136. 136.

    RaflW

    In small town WI news, two of three “moms for (no)liberty” lost in Menomonee Falls. BF’s mom did a ton to help defeat them, so a 66% win rate is pretty good!

    And out by our cabin, a a really good Latino guy won re-election to his school board. He was treasurer for my friend Bri’s first run for WI legislature (which she lost in ’22 but won in ’24!).

    The wingers will keep contesting these local races, so we’ve gotta keep on keepin’ on, too. Good results helps build momentum.

  139. 139.

    RaflW

    Also, per Bsky:
    Wisconsin Democrats have regained the county executive office in light red Winnebago County. Trump won it 52-47 last year.  Gordon Hintz won 30,832 to 27, 374.

  143. 143.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Mousebumples:

    @Kristine:

    Writing post cards helped a lot when I was mad or frustrated about what Trump or DOGE was doing on any given day for the last month. I’m glad too that it helped make a difference

  145. 145.

    Martin

    @Eolirin: But there’s a difference between an issue that the public is naturally skeptical about, and one that the public isn’t. Take the latter when offered.

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