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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / At least we all agree that this is plausibly quasi-random and exogenous as fuck

At least we all agree that this is plausibly quasi-random and exogenous as fuck

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I’ve only admitted to myself that I’m a health economist in the past two years.  I don’t do fancy calculus or real analysis.  So I am definitely not a BIG E economist.  However when I read and review econ papers as part of my service to the profession, I frequently see long arguments, counter-arguments and fifteen page appendixes justifying that a shock (be it policy or be it a ship running aground in the Suez Canal) can be treated as if it is random and externally imposed (exogenous).  For once the reviewer and the reader buys that the proposed shock is quasi-random and exogenous, the rest of the paper, if it is well done, then flows from there.  As researchers, we need these quasi-random and exogenous shocks to identify how different things causally change outcomes of interest.

And by god, in four or five years, reviewing health econ papers will be easy as the methods section will be along the lines of:

“We leverage the Rose Garden Tariffs differential impacts on the different molecules in the specified drug classes to identify the short run elasticity of demand.  From here, we use a long complicated regression model in the second stage to assess the impact of GLP-1 drugs on bear dancing ability ….”

And every reviewer will nod and say that the first stage is quasi-random and exogenous as fuck.

 

 

 

Reader Interactions

60Comments

  2. 2.

    prostratedragon

    Sir, in four or five years  there will be people who experience the most appalling sense of déjà vu because of having seen your prophecy.

  3. 3.

    catclub

    Hurricanes are probably treated as exogenous, However, the _rate_ of hurricanes might be subject to climate change.
    Likewise for airplane crashes and the dismantling of FAA safety apparatus.

  7. 7.

    TONYG

    Well, everything that’s happened since January 20th is exogenous in the sense that none of it would have happened if a normal human being were president.

  8. 8.

    Lobo

    We all agree that this is plausibly quasi-random and exogenous as f%#$, with a side of extreme stupidity and malice on the side.​

  9. 9.

    JPL

    @Kelly: It’s not quite as rosy though.

    Please someone ask the dear sir, how large the middle class was during the robber baron years.   If they  want they might ask about child labor laws and mandatory education.

  14. 14.

    Baud

    “We leverage the Rose Garden Tariffs differential impacts on the different molecules in the specified drug classes to identify the short run elasticity of demand. From here, we use a long complicated regression model in the second stage to assess the impact of GLP-1 drugs on bear dancing ability ….”

     

    And every reviewer will nod and say that the first stage is quasi-random and exogenous as fuck.

    Not the catchiest protest sign I’ve seen, but it’s the thought that counts.

  15. 15.

    Kelly

    @Rose Judson: Seems many people equate autarky with independence.

    At the smallest level I’ve always known people that live on small rural acreages that are certain they could live happily there, substance farming, after civilization collapses. These assholes have inflicted Trump on us.

  18. 18.

    HopefullyNotcassandra

    @Kelly: This makes brexit look bright by comparison.

    everybody gets a tariff

    everybody but Russia.

  19. 19.

    Spanky

    @Kelly: Too many bros have seen the Road Warrior movies. Nobody’s going to get to live comfortably without some heavy armament.

  23. 23.

    New Deal democrat

    As odd as it seems to say this, but our most likely ally in any strategy to bring T—-p to heel is . . . Wall Street.

    It is being noted that the talking heads on CNBC are visibly angry today, because they never thought he (the leopard) would actually do it (eat MY face!) . A trade economist has noted that nobody is going to build a new U.S. plant if the tariffs can be reversed on a whim, or by the next President.

    And so, already Senators Chuck Grassley (R) and Maria Cantwell (D) have already introduced a bill to reassert Congress’s power over tariffs, specifying that the President must notify Congress on new tariffs within 48 hours of imposition, and Congress must approve them within 60 days or they expire.

    Wall Street will go to the mat on this if they think they can win.

    Democrats should be making a list of what they get out of a bargain with Wall Street, the only GOP constituency with the money and clout to be able to go toe to toe with MAGA.

  24. 24.

    Kelly

    @JPL: You’re probably right. Our social safety net is skimpy.  BREXIT didn’t dislocate much outside the UK. We’re breaking the world.

  25. 25.

    StringOnAStick

    @Rose Judson: It’s our Brexit, and like Brexit, it came from Putin and his manipulation of media.

    People keep saying Trump isn’t smart enough to make these plans; it’s not tRump, this is 100% Stephen MIller and Project 2025.  They’ve told the orange idiot that he gets the money from tariffs because the orange idiot is easy to manipulate, the R fascists are behind Miller 100%.

  27. 27.

    Marcopolo

    @Baud: speaking of protest signs, if any front pagers are reading this thread might we please get a post for workshopping protest sign slogans for Saturday?

    btw my favorite Tesla takedown sign so far has been:

    Porsche  Fast

    Ferrarri  Faster

    Tesla    Fascist

    still thinking about my own hands off sign.

  28. 28.

    Kelly

    @Spanky:

    @HopefullyNotcassandra:

    Then you’ll need to belong to some kind of mutual defense association to avoid being outnumbered and to share watch duty. Maybe a long term arrangement so someone will help you when you’re sick or old. Oh wait you’ve reinvented government.

  29. 29.

    The Thin Black Duke

    Oh wait you’ve reinvented government.

    That’s assuming the next pandemic doesn’t kill everyone first.

  30. 30.

    Another Scott

    @JPL:

    Dean Baker at CEPR:

    […]

    Trump’s response is to give the country the most massive tax increase in its history, possibly exceeding $1 trillion on an annual basis, which comes to $7,000 per household. And this tax hike will primarily hit moderate and middle-income families. Trump’s taxes go easy on the rich, who spend a smaller share of their income on imported goods.

    There was much that Trump said in his Rose Garden address that made little sense. He repeated his bizarre claim that the United States had its greatest period of prosperity in the 1890s. This was a time when workers put in seven days a week, unions were largely illegal, and life expectancy was less than 50.

    He then attributed the Great Depression to the income tax, and had it continuing after World War II and President Roosevelt’s death. In Trump’s telling of history, the post-war Golden Age from 1945 to 1973 did not exist. This was a period when the economy was growing rapidly, the gains from growth were broadly shared, and the top income tax rate was between 70 percent and 90 percent.

    Trump’s account of the present was no more based in reality than his history of the United States. He told us that our trading partners and closest allies were all ripping us off.

    […]

    (Emphasis added.)

    And much of the press treats everything he says as being completely normal…

    Grr…

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  32. 32.

    Belafon

    @Another Scott:

    He repeated his bizarre claim that the United States had its greatest period of prosperity in the 1890s. This was a time when workers put in seven days a week, unions were largely illegal, and life expectancy was less than 50.

    True for very specific set of people, and then we took it all away by making them pay taxes.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    Three National Security Council officials fired by Trump
    36 minutes ago

    Madeline Halpert
    BBC News, New York

    The Trump administration has fired at least three officials at the National Security Council, with more firings expected, according to the BBC’s US partner CBS News.

    It is not clear why the staffers were removed from their roles, but CBS reports the decision followed a meeting between far-right activist Laura Loomer and President Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday.

    Loomer urged Trump to fire specific NSC employees who she did not deem supportive enough of the president’s agenda, according to several US media reports.

    bbc.com/news/articles/ckgerl183j3o

  35. 35.

    Lobo

    @David Anderson: ​
      They are all stupid, mean and evil. Measles, weasels, and cancer. Nothing to debate but only to fight. Sometimes in the annals of research it is that binary. Sigh!

  38. 38.

    MT

    Exogenous As Fuck sounds like a Flaming Lips B side from the Clouds Taste Metallic sessions

  39. 39.

    Jay

    From The New York Times:

    Under Phase One of the program, the United States has deployed multiple teams to convert commercial office space in Pretoria, the capital of South Africa, into ad hoc refugee centers, according to the documents. The teams are studying more than 8,200 requests expressing interest in resettling to the United States and have already identified 100 Afrikaners who could be approved for refugee status. The government officials have been directed to focus particularly on screening white Afrikaner farmers.

    The administration has also provided security escorts to officials conducting the interviews of potential refugees.

    wonkette.com/p/us-refugee-centers-to-help-white

  40. 40.

    Madeleine

    @StringOnAStick: Vought and his friends for implementation of 2025. I imagine Miller does the immigration enormities. Trump plays with EO toys he’s given for distraction.

  41. 41.

    Harrison Wesley

    @Jay: And people think he’s too cheap to provide humanitarian aid. The suffering of these white farmers..,. wait a minute, don’t they own a yooge majority of private land?

  42. 42.

    jimmiraybob

    I am starting a potato farm in the back yard.

    Strictly for personal consumption.

    Unless, of coarse, the per-potato price jumps and there’s good profit to be made.  Golden Era.

  44. 44.

    Jay

    @jimmiraybob:

    Start a Fentanyl lab in your Winnebago.

    DJTdiot’s 25% tariff on smuggled Fentanyl will allow you to undercut all the local dealers, and I understand there is a Youge demand for the product.

  46. 46.

    stinger

    @Trollhattan: ​
     Has she even set foot in the White House this time?
    She must have been stabbed by a rose thorn as a child. I still don’t get it.

  48. 48.

    RevRick

    @Marcopolo: My wife, who has never participated in a demonstration in her life, asked me today which Hand’s Off protest are we going to… and gave me the times and locations!

  49. 49.

    RevRick

    @StringOnAStick: @Madeleine: Trump has been bleating about tariffs since the 1980s, because he believed that Japan was taking advantage of us. Nobody put this idea in his head. It’s been there for forty years, at least, and it’s in line with his belief that the McKinley administration was the zenith of American wealth.

  50. 50.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, yet another illustration on how it helps to have people who understand legislation, and not just bomb-throwers and meme generators, in Congress…

    A short thread:

    bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsky.social/post/3llvzvexog22g

    Aaron Fritschner
    ‪@fritschner.bsky.social‬

    Trump just opened up a procedural avenue for Dems to force votes on the tariffs he announced yesterday. A quick explainer-

    April 3, 2025 at 9:44 AM

    […]

    tl;dr – The GQP put language in the rule for the CR vote in the House saying that 47’s EO on February 1 couldn’t be messed with via privilege mechanisms. His stuff this week on 4/2 was after February 1, the calendar still works, fortunately, so that restriction no longer applies. (The MAGAts can try to impose new restrictions, of course.)

    Click on over anyway, but come back!

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  51. 51.

    Belafon

    Over the last hour, the markets have stepped off an edge. The DOW had been holding around 1400 down, and now it’s > 1600 down.

  57. 57.

    HopefullyNotcassandra

    @Kelly: I was referring to rural folks.  They can live off the grid if they farm and have technological know how

    except for the marauders who will come if civilization breaks down

    I think urban areas would actually stay safer longer.  Spam would be the new currency.  I sincerely hope we stop this madness long before it gets to that!

  59. 59.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    @Belafon: the last hour’s decline is probably ordinary people redeeming their mutual funds, which must settle up and credit their investors’ accounts by the end of the day. The algorithmic traders get to market must faster.

  60. 60.

    Anonymous At Work

    You’d think it would stop the neoclassical economists from then proposing 20 pages of equations…BUT NOOOOOOooooo.  “Gotta prove the microfoundations with math.”

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