I missed Trump’s Liberation Day announcement last night—I had more important things to do, like cleaning the lint trap in the dryer and defrosting a mouse for the snake—but I’m sure it was a breathtaking display of political oratory that showcased the president’s deft handling of tricky economic policies.
Oh, you mean it was a shit sundae with stupid sprinkles and a drizzling of stupid sauce? Quelle surprise. First, the economists collectively face-palmed once the White House showed its math as to how it had arrived at the tariff rates it chose. It is, per MSNBC economics reporter Catherine Rampell, “the dumb calculation”:
I had been reluctant to amplify the theory that Trump’s “reciprocal tariff rate” for a given country was based on the dumb calculation: (bilateral trade deficit) divided by (imports from that country)
But now USTR has confirmed it. Brief 🧵
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 2:39 AM
Translated into English: Their calculation is net exports with a given country (exports minus imports).
The denominator is imports multiplied by…1 (4*0.25=1)
So: trade deficit divided by imports.— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM
I hear a high-pitched whine in my ears when I try to understand any economics idea beyond an undergrad intro course, but it is obvious even to me how stupid this is. A reply to Rampell’s thread put it well:
He thinks that a trade deficit means America is getting ripped off. I buy groceries and at the end of the year I have a $10,000 trade deficit with the store, but that doesn’t mean the store is cheating me.
— James 🍁 (@jrwilk.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 5:33 AM
James, did you know that “groceries” is an old-fashioned, beautiful term? The president said so last night!
“It sort of says a bag with different things in it. Groceries went through the roof and I campaigned on that. I talked about the word ‘groceries’ for a lot, and energy costs now are down. Groceries are down.”
We are all down, sir. Bigly, bigly down.
But there’s more! The trade war is truly universal, with several remote territories making the list. From Wired Magazine, we learn that the Heard and McDonald Islands, way down near the Antarctic, were listed on the tariff sheet:
One of the sheets claims that the Heard and McDonald Islands currently charge a “Tariff to the U.S.A.” of 10 percent, clarifying in tiny letters that this includes “currency manipulation and trade barriers.” In return, the sheet says that the US will charge “discounted reciprocal tariffs” on the islands at a rate of 10 percent.
The islands are small. Their reported 37,000 hectares of land makes them a little larger than Philadelphia. According to UNESCO, which designated the islands as a World Heritage Site in 1997, they are covered in rocks and glaciers. Heard Island is the site of an active volcano, and McDonald Island is surrounded by several smaller rocky islands. The islands are home to large populations of penguins and elephant seals.The Australian Antarctic Division manages the islands, preserving the environment and conducting research on the large wildlife population, as well as climate change’s impact on Heard and McDonald’s permanent glaciers. On Wednesday, Australia and a number of its island territories, including Christmas and Cocos Keeling Islands, were also hit with tariffs of 10 percent. Norfolk Island, which Australia also claims, got a tariff of 29 percent.
Anastasio Beaverhausen
The Brexit Cup, established in 2016 to honour the country that commits the largest unforced act of economic self harm, is apparently being renamed the Trump Trophy. It will be packed up and sent to Washington soon. Subject to 20% tariff, of course. Take that UK!
Kristine
Sometimes all you can do is shake your damn head.
And swear.
And wonder how in the hell it came to this even though you know exactly how it came to this.
Betty Cracker
Same.
Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) has a great thread on Bluesky explaining how this tariff gambit is part of the larger authoritarian project. Basically, it’s a way to make businesses knuckle under to avoid ruin.
Martin
So, two dynamics that should show up here.
Betty Cracker
Dow futures down more than 1,000. That’s bad, right?
SpaceUnit
Is defrosting a mouse for the snake some sort of euphemism for our present times?
Ksmiami
@Betty Cracker: America will not survive Trump. End of story.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Serves two other purposes, to the extent it raises short term revenue.
Baud
The tariff policy was obviously generated by AI.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Trump is finally winning the war on income inequality.
Baud
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Walz is right. Trump has been yammering about tariffs since the 80s.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
The Senate voted to overturn his Canada tariffs. Not enough to overcome a veto, but at least some pressure was already building. Maybe a real stock market dip is what it will take to get Republicans in Congress to do their jobs.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: I remember seeing Trump on TV back then saying, “The Japanese are eating our lunch.” I think that was the first time I heard of him.
Baud
Dog vs. moose
Shalimar
Elon Musk predicts 10 billion humanoid robots — Will they outnumber humans?
Musk again trying to prevent the collapse of Tesla’s stock price by promising something amazing that is never going to happen. Why are supposedly sophisticated financial analysts stupid enough to fall for this same routine after 15 years of failure to come even close to what he said would happen?
Rusty
What’s coming through is that Trump has seized on tariffs, they being the primary way to fund government preceding the imposition of the national income tax, and so this is a way to do away with income taxes. It’s all a way for rich people to not pay income taxes. So instead a stealth sales tax that is particularly unstable. So there is a rational explanation, it’s just incredibly stupid and destructive.
Elizabelle
Penguins, unite.
It’s like we are all on that Germanwings flight. Competent pilot locked out of the cockpit, and the mentally deranged copilot is steering straight for the mountain.
Look forward to Saturday’s (April 5) protests. I think they will be massive.
Baud
I’m just glad the president isn’t two years older.
Viva BrisVegas
Trump put a 10% tariff on Australia even though we run a trade deficit with the US. We buy more from you than you sell to us. About $US18 billion in 2024.
According to Trump’s phony baloney maths, aren’t we owed some money?
What are the chances of this deadbeat coughing up the cash?
Geminid
In the “War and Rumors of War” department, from Ragip Soylu:
Soylu cited the Jerusalem Post‘s diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s rationale. A couple days ago Soylu reported that Turkiye intends to establish a drone base along with with air defense units at the T-4 airbase. That’s near the ancient city of Palmyra.
Italian military analyst Jacobo Ascenso commented on Soylu’s latest report:
Time for Secretary Rubio to step up!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: In the conformation hearings it was two Republicans who would vote no to force Vance to break the tie. Now it’s four.
And there are the nine Republicans in the House who forced Moses to shut it down for the week.
Thinks are shifting slowly.
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Hope so. And the fact is, most people aren’t feeling the effects of Trump 2.0 yet.
Booker picked a good time for his speech.
Geminid
I like how Ankara-based Clash Report posts dumbass statements by Trump administration officials with no comment:
eclare
Wow massive storms here in Memphis. Scary lightning, incredibly loud thunder. For hours on end.
Elizabelle
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: GOP constituents are being hurt and fired by DOGE, too. Elon is using a chainsaw, not a scalpel.
And the cuts to science and health and international initiatives are devastating.
Elizabelle
@eclare: Saw that you were likely to get dangerous storms. Glad you are home and safe. Would be a dreadful night and day to be out traveling.
When is the last time you saw anything of similar ferocity?
Asparagus Aspersions
Guess I know what my topic will be for my weekly call to my R congressman. I think he’s more of a venal opportunist than a true believer, so depending on how hard and how quickly his constituents feel the fallout of Liberation Day, he might be open to the idea of Congresss taking back control of trade authority.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: What I noticed during Booker’s speech is the Senate GoP made no serious attempt to stop him.
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I don’t know how they could have under the rules.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, is this going to be like Trump’s deport biggily the immigrants, mostly symbolic?
eclare
@Elizabelle:
I can’t even remember, it’s been relentless.
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Even if the tariffs last one day, it’ll be more than symbolic when it comes to how the rest of the world treats us. There’s no stability so there can’t be any trust.
Betty Cracker
@eclare: Stay safe!
@Asparagus Aspersions: My crappy R congressman is of that same type. 2nd generation seat squatter who wants to ride the gravy train forever. He’ll be MAGA as long as it personally benefits him.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Economic instability and pandemics will not respect borders
ETA: And this is not just a “mistake” by Trump-Musk. It is malevolence. They do not care.
Ramalama
@SpaceUnit: I almost choked to keep from laughing out loud. Dangerous to read this bleg while in bed.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Hmm, I would think Musk would care a lot since he as globalist as it gets. One could make an argument this is Trump punishing Musk for Wisconsin. That would be the kind of petty nonsense Trump is into.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
I don’t know why they should care when a majority of voters haven’t.
Baud
I’m not sure who’s going to buy all the American AI that Trump wants to promote.
Matt McIrvin
That formula quoted in the Bluesky thread is hilarious. Under all the algebra and obfuscatory language, even if you take it at face value, what they claim they’re calculating is the tariff rate required to completely eliminate our trade deficit with every country, by making their exports too painful to buy… assuming they don’t retaliate with tariffs of their own and nothing else changes! But of course everyone will retaliate, they won’t just roll over. And, oh yeah, there’s also a floor of 10%. And they lied even about what this means.
Geminid
@Geminid: A more serious Clash Report story:
* Baykar’s TB-2 drones played a key role in blunting Russia’s offensives in the first weeks of its invasion in February of 2022. Unlike other Nato countries, Turkiye did not restrict use of its weapons to Ukrainian territory, and Baykar’s drones ranged far and wide until the Russians wised up and brought in defense assets to counter them.
Matt McIrvin
…To sum up what I said earlier, I think we just saw Trump’s Laffer curve.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
The Laffer curve had more intellectual rigor than this thing. But not a bad analogy all in all.
Hoodie
I’d say it’s worth considering whether this comprehensive tariff regime is even legal. I’m not an expert, but I understand the executive’s authority to impose tariffs comes via statute and thus there are certain qualifiers in that statute that this harebrained scheme probably don’t satisfy. For example, there’s no emergency (other than the one Trump is creating) and this is not a matter of national defense. This isn’t a treaty, where a president might have more leeway. It’s an illegal tax, at least the way it’s being implemented, e.g., the stupid way the rates are determined. Might be worth running by the Supremes to see if they will pull out their shiny new Major Questions and/or Nondelegation doctrines.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: It’s quite similar really. Is the Laffer curve right? Well, there surely is some possible situation where the tax burden of economic activity is so high that reducing the tax rate increases revenue. The dishonesty is just asserting that we live in that world.
That tariff formula would do what they say, in the idealized situation where all the parameters, like the elasticity and the factor that says how tariffs affect prices, are what they say they were, and where all the effects are linear and there’s no retaliation. But of course they pulled all those numbers out of their butts and that’s not the real world.
And then they lied even about what they’re claiming, saying that this is somehow the tariff rate other countries already charge on our imports. And the formula didn’t even incorporate what seems to be a 10% floor. But the formula with Greek letters and such is the version that attempts to give it intellectual cachet.
Baud
Apparently, the tariffs don’t kick in until Saturday. FWIW.
Matt McIrvin
…and I just want to reiterate that the guy who campaigned on “TRUMP = LOW PRICES” is now liberating us by raising prices. That’s 100% what’s going on.
Hoodie
@Matt McIrvin: the 10% floor is one of the things that probably makes this illegal. It’s not directed at any particular threat from any particular country. This is not only Trump’s Laffer Curve, it’s another iteration of “they’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats”, taking over Greenland, etc. It’s the same hyperbolic shit he puts out to generate outrage and somehow make normally sane people think that gravity might be optional. It’s a scam that people – including people who hyperventilate in response- keep falling for. Don’t believe the hype. File the fucking lawsuits. Any consumer should have standing. I have industrial clients that would have standing due to the massive restructuring this would require.
Rose Judson
The pound has jumped from $1.29 to $1.32 and is climbing. Every penny increase cuts my hourly pay by about 40 cents. I hate this asshole.
Hoodie
@Baud: Of course. This is typical Trump abusive and ultimately stupid negotiation tactics. He thinks they’ll come to him with concessions. If they’re smart, they’ll either tell him to fuck off or give him meaningless promises.
Betty Cracker
@Hoodie: I think that’s correct — Congress delegates the power to impose tariffs to address emergencies, and there isn’t an emergency. The bullshit about fentanyl that Trump made up about Canada to impose tariffs was ridiculous on its face because he’s got nothing. But I have no idea if the courts would intervene since it’s entirely within Congress’s power to reclaim that power. Republicans just won’t do it because they’re cowards.
Betty Cracker
@Rose Judson: Shit. I figured this would really suck for folks paid in dollars who pay bills in pounds. Sorry.
Peter Milley
Canadians:
https://images.app.goo.gl/sNh1R1mzk91iCpCN8
sentient ai from the future
@Betty Cracker: it goes hand in hand with his directive to DOJ to no longer prosecute the Foreign and Corrupt Practices Act to prevent US companies from doing bribes as a part of business
Gvg
@Geminid: the first times I heard of him had to do with his repeated bankruptcies (the news was laughing at him) and showing off his awful vulgar taste in overdone gold gilt paint which at about 13 I considered vulgar and tasteless. But I quit watching TV sometime in the late 80’s and missed how he rebranded himself so the fact that other people thought he was successful just caught me unaware. I still can’t take it in. So many people believe TV shows. And Trump is clearly one of them. Dick Cheney showed signs of it too. Most gun nuts believe certain stories, not necessarily TV, but myths about heroic saving the day, instead of practical statistics. But not being able to tell reality from fantasy is a real problem. Not wanting to is the beginning but they aren’t being told often enough when young that they need to. Parents example also matters of course.
Hoodie
@Betty Cracker: It’s not a question of Congress reclaiming power. They never gave him that power. This very Court has given a roadmap to stop this. It’s worth try not only to stop him from wreaking havoc but also to put those fucks on the spot. They helped create this mess.
Soprano2
@Baud: This is what I think, too.
sentient ai from the future
@Hoodie: people who never figured out how to handle a cruel and abusive figure more powerful than them (both his parents, in my understanding) poorly understand how others with integrity or self respect handle a cruel and abusive figure in power.
Soprano2
@Baud: Or a black woman, how horrible would that be? 🙄🙄
Soprano2
@eclare: That’s the storm we had earlier today, but it’s much bigger now.
Betty Cracker
@Hoodie: Good point, and I agree any possible roadblock is worth raising.
Elizabelle
@Rose Judson: I’m sorry about that, Rose. It’s one thing to have Mother Nature deal you a blow, and quite something else to have your pay stolen by a malevolent dictator wannabe.
It’s a loss, though, no matter how it is landed.
Who knew one could console you with “at least you are not a renowned scientist with a secure government job?”
Hoodie
@Betty Cracker: The other thing is that we need to quit hyperventilating when he does this shit. It’s all calculated to get that reaction. We need to find more effective ways of calling bullshit on him. Just don’t look at him with a puzzled or smirking face and relying on fact checking moderators when he starts talking about Haitians eating dogs. There needs to be something more like an immediate “That’s fucking bullshit. Prove it.” The thing I hate is the markets may panic about this before even one red cent of a tariff is imposed.
Baud
@Hoodie:
I tend to agree. Too often we lubricate the connection between Trump and his MAGA base with our reactions.
Matt McIrvin
@Hoodie: The markets need to panic. That’s how people with money and power, who aren’t living paycheck to paycheck, get affected and start to care.
Matt McIrvin
@Gvg: The first I ever heard of Donald Trump was one of my high-school classmates becoming fascinated with him in this sort of jokey way in the early 1980s as an icon of ultimate wealth. The other person this guy idolized was Bruce Springsteen, who was a better role model.
Hoodie
@Matt McIrvin: Yeah, but a lot of those people are hedged six ways to sundown and might even think they stand to gain from this volatility. A huge chunk of that market is slow moving 401k ballast that is more negatively affected.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Those people want to believe in Trump, just like the people living paycheck to paycheck who vote for him.
I think the only thing that will get through to them is actual economic loss.
Hoodie
@Baud: What our reactions tend to show is that we’re not confident in our principles and more worried about our resumes than what we actually know. It’s the imposter syndrome that is the mirror image of Dunning Kruger, the inherent self doubt that comes with intelligence. It’s part of what the low info voters detect. What they really want is for you to tell them they really are too dumb to fly the plane and they need to let the professionals do it. They probably subconsciously suspect that’s the case anyway.
Baud
@Hoodie:
Yeah, I sense the lack of confidence too. Why should other people believe in us if we don’t believe in ourselves?
Hoodie
@Baud: Confidence is what Trump sells. That’s what “confidence man” means. I think Biden’s mistake was not selling a better deal. For example, having a prime time address after passing all the stimulus bills and saying something like “Look, we just pumped a shitload if money into the economy. We did that to prevent the economy from imploding due to shocks from the pandemic. Unfortunately, that will cause some inflation, and that may persist for a while. Mr. Powell, the consummate professional who runs the federal reserve, will raise interest rates to combat that. I need all of you to be patient because this will not be fixed overnight, but I’ll do everything I can to make sure nobody gets left behind. Sleep well and get back to work.”
delphinium
@Hoodie:
Twenty-one pilots get it.
brantl
@Ksmiami: This is why you’re SUCH FUN to have around. Pied.
brantl
The story of his life, bet on stupid and destructive. The Bankruptcy King.
brantl
@Baud:
Baud
April 3, 2025 at 4:50 am
I’m just glad the president isn’t two years older.
?
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
Just had to see this again, for the laughs.
Matt McIrvin
@Hoodie: Only Republicans can pull that off because only their voters instinctively have the level of deference to their heroes necessary for it to work. Trump can tell them to bear with him while he brings pain, with a promise that things will be better down the line. No Democratic voter is going to stand for that.
satby
@brantl: the same age as Biden
Wilson Heath
Trump take penguin egg.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Wilson Heath: Got give credit for Trump on the penguin eggs, he jacked the tariff on them and they aren’t say shit about it on the Heard and McDonald Islands.
DaBunny
Re Albanese’s claim that nowhere on earth is safe from Trump. That’s not true. While Trump targeted the Heard and McDonald islands and Diego Garcia, he was careful not to target Russia.