I’m sitting here waiting for Joelle to get home from work so we can hit the favorite mexican place down the road and she can get her happy hour margaritas and queso, and all I can think about is just how fucking stupid it all is. We just shed trillions in market cap because some imbecile is pissed off with a couple hundred million in trade imbalance with places like Madagascar, a trade imbalance that only exists because it’s one of like three places where fucking vanilla beans grow. Or Lesotho, one of the poorest nations in the world where we also have a trade imbalance because they mine diamonds but are too fucking poor to afford American goods.
For that, the years of me doing what I was fucking told and investing for retirement and living in a shitty apartment for a decade with carpet on the walls so I could save more and driving an 83 Chevy Celebrity until 2006 and not going on vacations or any of that shit. Gone. And I think the carnage has just begun.
What’s scary is that other massive market crashes all had actual reasons- a pandemic, a housing bubble by bad actors, etc., but you knew we could recover because we identified the problems. Here, it’s just crashing because we are at the mercy of an imbecilic sociopath who will never live long enough to experience the damage he is doing and a cargo cult centered around a red hat. And there is no end in sight and half the country seems to WANT this.
Feh.
Motivated Seller
I think half the country voted for ‘burn it down’. And boy has he delivered.
karen gail
The worst part isn’t the imbecilic sociopath who is a meat autopen but those who are the “brains” using him; this reeks of all those who revel in evil and malic.
If there is a history honestly written Trump will go down and the worst of the worst; and his cult members will be held up as examples of what happens to those who refuse to see and those who refuse to learn and those who refuse to face the facts.
karen gail
@Motivated Seller: Leaves me to question just how many in US are sadists and how far are they willing to go to harm others.
zhena gogolia
I know. My fury on behalf of all of us who have saved our whole lives so that a bunch of dipshits could steal our money IS INCANDESCENT
bbleh
… half the country seems to WANT this.
I think they want the WWE-style entertainment of it, plus they like that a bigoted White male a**hole can act like one out loud and proud because it means they can too.
I don’t think they have much of a clue yet about the damage, and even less of one about how it will, inevitably, affect them. That likely will grow on them, but I expect a lot of them will deny and deflect rather than admit the cause.
Plus, having bought into the con, they have to stick with it in public, because otherwise they’d have to admit they were suckered, and they will never do that.
And the rest of us are stuck with it.
Allen Henderson
Genuinely think it’s no longer half and that erosion of support is well underway. Once the (sure — probably delusional) great realignment happens, the main bulwark to establish within that momentum will be akin to the antitrust and anti-corruption reforms post-Depression, except to protect against disinformation.
Also, we desperately need a personal wealth cap. Individual brains have well-known failure modes that disqualify any single one from becoming too empowered by capital (as wealth or as political influence). This failure mode was a miss by the Framers, IMO.
Marianne19
Let’s chant it together: You don’t know anyone as stupid as Donald Trump. You just don’t. I never expected to spend my old age watching my country fall apart. I’m so angry.
Sister Golden Bear
@zhena gogolia: Trump take retirement.
Jay
@karen gail:
So if you caught the Faux News interview with America’s Favorite Himmler, Steven Miller, after “Liberation Day”, you realize there is no 24 dimensions chess, there is no secret cabal, it’s a case of “yes, they are all that stupid”.
Steve LaBonne
I desperately want to say something encouraging, but I got nuthin’. :(
TurnItOffAndOnAgain
This is how it always was, it’s just white people are feeling it now.
Allen Henderson
Sorry — I’m an academic and get too wordy.
Prevent individuals from acquiring too much power as wealth or otherwise. Leads to bad decisions. Create policies and laws to prevent “political technology” AKA massive disinfo campaigns. Also I think people will rise up now that their personal shit is lighting on fire. Use that.
Marianne19
@bbleh: Politics becoming a team sport/entertainment is definitely part of the problem.
@bbleh:
Anne Laurie
Upvote!
Jackie
@Motivated Seller:
And now everyone who voted to burn it down are sifting through the ashes wondering how did this happen to ME?!
BQuimby
Queso. Mmmmmmm
Suzanne
A third of the country are losers, purely of their own making, and they resent those who are not. Crabs in a bucket, using FFOTUS to drag all the rest of us back down with them.
karen gail
@Jay: Not just stupid, but EVIL and full of hate.
Martin
No, we shredded trillions in wealth in order to avoid smaller trillions in taxes on the rich. Those taxes wouldn’t have affected you, but you’re going to have to have your 401K suffer for their benefit. This is a wholesale redistribution of wealth from retail investors and retirement accounts to billionaires.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
*Every* talking head on CNN cable (my normie wife watches) are saying the exact same thing.
Well, they’re not saying exactly what you’re saying in that last sentence because, well, it is CNN cable. But they’re really sending the “the dumbass in the WH is the cause of all of this for no good reason” message just with more polite wording.
Jay
@Jackie:
Rough numbers are 1/3rd are sane,
1/3rd don’t or can’t care,
1/3rd are the zombies in the basement.
https://www.wonkette.com/p/the-right-wants-to-turn-the-whole
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Jay:
It’s a great description. Alas, so many people simply won’t get the reference anymore.
zhena gogolia
@Allen Henderson: Good comment.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Sister Golden Bear: if only
zhena gogolia
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: Haha, you could read it that way!
bbleh
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: it IS being widely branded as the “Trump crash” due to the “Trump tariffs” (except on Fox, of course, where it doesn’t exist). But I still suspect it’s just abstract numbers for most of his base. It’ll hit home when prices for all sorts of things go up and lots more people are losing their jobs. One hopes the media will continue to point out why that’s happening.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
Only if they panic and sell, and don’t stay the course
MagdaInBlack
@Jay: Yup.
tobie
I spent much of the day in a waiting room in a Florida hospital while my 96-year-old mother was undergoing surgery. The Trumpers around me were anxious. I heard one elderly man tell another, “I hope Trump knows what he’s doing.” But that anxiety was also accompanied by anger and belligerence. “The American people have no patience; they want instant gratification.” OR “When I was a building inspector, they hired a guy with a masters and he didn’t even know how to use a pencil. Har har har.” “Besides FOX, the media lies.” “Schools are too lenient with kids. They need some tough love.”
All this is to say: the uncertainty is there but they can’t fathom that they and Dear Leader have been dumb and destructive. I wanted to scream but I kept to myself because when you’re in the surgery section of the oncology bldg, you don’t pick fights.
Josie
My son just told me the gamers are all very pissed off because the new video game console, Nintendo Switch 2, is supposed to come out on April 9, and the pre-orders are being held back so the company can further assess the situation. He’s amused because he thinks many of them are Trump supporters and are now in the position of FAFO. We have to take our pleasure where we can find it.
Baud
Gotta keep the base fat
and happy.hrprogressive
The Fash Crash is designed to destroy America.
It’s not stupid.
It’s malevolent.
They Call Me Noni
@Motivated Seller: And dollars to donuts most of that half of the country doesn’t have a pot to piss in. The very people who buy the bibles and gold tennis shoes.
Suzanne
@Josie: I am slightly anxious about something. We finally decided to upgrade our old furnace with a much more efficient one and add AC. We got multiple estimates, picked one, and paid for it (put 1/3 down and no-interest financed the rest, not too much). Scheduled the install for the middle of the month. Now I’m concerned about them needing to cancel if they won’t sell it to us at the price we agreed to.
LeftCoastYankee
I think though that each of those earlier economic disasters had the same effect (erasing lifetime wealth for many), but we believed there was some level of “fixing” afterwards because “jobs” were up.
This despite the enshittification of those jobs and no path to recover lost savings, decent folks didn’t complain too much knowing how much worse it was for the generationally poor. And the less decent decided everyone else needed to hurt more.
Meh. I’m tired and this keeps sucking.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@tobie:
Absolutely zero self-awareness lol
I assume this is a BS story this person either made up or embellished. Like the new hire held the pencil a weird way or something
“Bring back corporal punishment to schools!”
Sure man, but what about the parents who don’t think punishment should be physical? What if they don’t want teachers/school officials hitting their kids?
zhena gogolia
@tobie: Why is it okay for them to fill the waiting room with their idiocy?
Josie
@Suzanne: I would hope they can’t do that if you have already signed a contract and made a partial payment, but I’m no expert. Fingers crossed.
sab
Congress critters and Senators are a lot about money. That is why Republicans pursue elective office. They have good pensions from their service, but nowhere near enough to meet their greedy needs. They have been insider trading for decades.
If Trumps’ shenanigans blow up their stock portfolios they might get testy or even hostile.
The Audacity of Krope
The US government under the Republican Party is only interested in protecting the cultural preferences of assholes.
They Call Me Noni
@Suzanne: I would think if you signed an agreement they have to uphold it.
The Audacity of Krope
Unless you signed an agreement with the US President…
Spanky
@Jackie:
Oh no no no. Everything is just lightly browned now. You ain’t seen ashes.
Jay
DJTdiot’s spockpeople say that the Tariff’s, (can’t spell Tariff’s with out FFS) will raise $6 trillion over the next 15 years for the Treasury.
Meanwhile, the last two days have eliminated $6.8 trillion dollars from the US Stockmarket in just two days.
Any Econ student’s here to tell me how this balances out?
The Audacity of Krope
Not an econ student, but experience tells me the wealthy will buy up the pieces and further increase their hold over the American economy and their power over their workers.
Jackie
@Baud:
I saw that earlier today and was surprised Wormbrain isn’t supporting this as he’s very anti-obesity.
Doc Sardonic
@Suzanne: Not sure what the contractors laws are in PA, but generally once you have signed the contract and placed a down payment, the contract must be honored(unless your contractors name is Trump). If they refuse to honor the contract, you can sue, in Fl if you win, you can also file for attorney’s fees.
Suzanne
@The Audacity of Krope:
This is true, and terrifying. So much of this nightmare spins around aesthetics. Feelings. Vibes. Emotional allegiances don’t change because of pesky facts or evidence.
We’re all stuck in this abusive relationship with this fucker.
tobie
@zhena gogolia: I don’t know. Folks chit chat and stuff comes up. You’re right, though, that most of us whisper in waiting rooms and nod to others to give moral support.
Martin
@Josie: Not to mention the $300 surcharge on iPhones and $150+ surcharge on Android phones that will result, all of their anime tchotchkes now having to clear customs and getting their 65% tariff, and so on.
Tariffs are a great way to get citizens disinterested in voting because it doesn’t matter to suddenly take an interest in politics.
PsiFighter37
Very frustrated. I am very limited in what I can do because of working in financial services myself, but the things I can control (like my 401k and my daughter’s 529), I moved to cash-like assets first thing on Thursday morning. Unfortunately, I am in the process of firing my idiotic financial advisor (who told me in early March I was ‘difficult’ to work with, because I emailed him asking to explore tail risk investment scenarios). I am just hoping that by the time we get our funds transferred to our new FA, and I give my two cents that I would like to be extremely uninvested until there is better policy clarity, that the market has not tanked even further.
My personal take is that the end of 2024/start of 2025, from a stock market perspective, was Japan in 1989. The generational damage of these moves – even if most of them are undone at some point – cannot be overstated. ‘America First’ apparently meant to completely cede American leadership of the post-World War II order, and I have no doubt in my mind that my daughter now is going to grow up in a poorer, more poorly-educated country. I’m really not sure if my future (I am 39 now) is going to be in this country for the long run, a feeling I have had ever since November but one that feels even closer to fruition.
Suzanne
@Jackie: Wormbrain has been opposed to the new weight-loss meds because they make it harder to fat-shame and cast obesity as a moral failure.
Josie
Just saw this on Political Wire.
Sure, Scott, pull the other one.
Chetan Murthy
@Suzanne: This.
Baud
@Josie:
I blame General Tao.
Gvg
@Josie: problem is, they may not be able to acquire the equipment agreed on at the price they thought was reliable OR at all. Some stuff is going to stop coming. Some countries have already cancelled orders to us. And there is a limit to what kind of losses they can absorb if the price is too much higher than expected, especially since they will have proof it was beyond their control. In other words, a lawsuit you would be sure to win some other time, might get a different result now when everyone knows this context and some people would think differently now. Besides, who wants to be suing? You just want the equipment.
Jay
@Suzanne:
@Josie:
You have to read the contract carefully. Most contractor contracts have clauses in them to protect the contractor from prices hikes on the quoted material or delivery delays, effecting the completion of the job.
The “good ones” will swallow a small raise in price, because they have a significant markup, (20% to 40% over cost) and will keep you informed and with your agreement, update the finish date, ( and payment dates) if there are delays.
There were some contracts I wrote, back in the day that started off at 4 pages, and with Customer approved change notices, wound up being 40 pages.
Geminid
@Suzanne: The unit you’re buying is likely in the country already, and the installers will still make their profit. They’ll probably be glad for the revenue. This could be a lean year for them.
Doc Sardonic
@Baud: Yeah, he really shouldn’t have done what he did with that chicken.
Jackie
@Chetan Murthy: True. He publicly fat shamed the WV governor. I challenge him to do the same to FFOTUS.
bbleh
@Jay: Krugman dealt with tariffs succinctly, noting that their claim that tariffs will raise lots of money conflicts with their claims BOTH that tariffs won’t raise prices AND that people will buy fewer imported goods and switch to American-made goods (which claims also contradict each other btw).
And in any case, even if tariffs DID raise significant money, the notion that they would raise $6 trillion is like something somebody would say who doesn’t even know what a trillion is. TOTAL US imports in 2024 were like $4 trillion, INCLUDING services.
It’s not just happy-talk; it’s an insult to intelligence.
NotMax
“Other than that how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”
//
Chetan Murthy
@Jackie: I’m more than certain that FFOTUS approved of Wormbrain’s decision. He also fat-shames out the wazoo, and doesn’t think of himself as fat. Hell, we’ve seen the transcripts (from -after- his first term) where he classed himself a real catch, if he and Melania divorced, the laydeeeeez would be linin’ up around the block to get a crack at him.
Suzanne
@Geminid: Fingers crossed. I am excited for it.
sab
@karen gail: People on the Putin payroll is my guess. Most of the Rpublicans in Congress.
Martin
@The Audacity of Krope: And that’s what’s been happening for the last few decades. That house you were looking at buying and now don’t have the downpayment for is still plenty affordable to private equity to buy up and rent to you instead.
The billionaires lost net worth but they don’t need to realize those losses because they’re rich – they can spend different money and just hold those until they recover. But retirees still need groceries and still need to withdraw from their 401Ks whether they’re underwater or not. So the retail and retirement investors have to take those losses.
This is why I cashed out a bunch of my securities right after the election and now hold them as cash. When this market bottoms out, I can afford to buy at the bottom and ride it up, but most retail investors won’t be able to. So I get the benefits of the next asset runup and you don’t, and folks richer than me get even more benefit than I do.
Note, assets aren’t considered in inflation calculations. Y’all are too focused on inflation/wages and overlook that wealth is just as important and that gap is huge. So long as assets are growing faster than inflation, what the fuck do I care about the cost of eggs?
Gonna leave this here.
Susan of Texas
@Jay: Another way to put it is 1/3 are hardcore authoritarians, 1/3 are wishy-washy authoritarians, and 1/3 are not authoritarian. And people have a habit of being even more authoritarian during crises, which is why evil people create them.
Jackie
Santos will get a FFOTUS pardon once convicted, won’t he?
eclare
@zhena gogolia:
I never had carpeted walls, but my last apt in ATL was old, tiny, and the appliances were so old I had a gas dryer. And some sort of wall heat contraption that was see through as it heated both the front and back of the apt.
Great location, for those who know ATL in Garden Hills down the street from Treehouse.
But I did that to save to buy a house. As well as save for retirement.
I feel like an idiot.
Jay
@The Audacity of Krope:
Yabbut, $6 trillion over 15 years is not equal to $6.8 trillion in losses in just 2 days. Is it all Underpants Gnomes math?
ColoradoGuy
@Suzanne: I’d be willing to pay a small premium (5% to 10%) for contract completion and “unforeseen expenses”. Because HVAC systems are going to get a LOT more expensive, and the Federal efficient rebates of $2500 may be going away pretty soon now.
I swapped out our 19-year-old system last summer, and very glad I did. The variable-speed HVAC heat pump is far superior to the single-speed system it replaced
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@The Audacity of Krope:
Ugh. Don’t remind me
Jackie
@Chetan Murthy: Laura Loomer is first in line <puke>
Suzanne
@Chetan Murthy: I am of the opinion that fatphobia has been a big strain of the misogyny that we have seen rise up in recent years, and thus is part of our terrible political life right now. Body positivity taught fat women to have self-esteem, not to torture themselves into thinness, and not to accept poor treatment from men out of desperation. The men who think that women exist for their enjoyment don’t like that.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Susan of Texas:
But the authoritarians are the ones in charge and what they are doing is not popular
Sister Golden Bear
Speaking of stupid, but the fun kind, a MAGA went after Derek Guy, the menswear guy after Guy pointed out that the rah-rah nationalist right-wing influencers get their merch from overseas sweatshops, and challenged Guy to a real-world fight. Needless to say it did not go well. The thread is comedy gold.
Never get involved in a land war in Asia, never pick a fight with Derek Guy…. 😂
Rocks
John – money markets and PSQ
eclare
@Baud:
Even the Romans knew to give the masses bread and circuses.
Suzanne
@Sister Golden Bear: The two things that have given me life today are Derek Guy challenging that MAGAt to a fight at Uniqlo, and the penguin tariff memes. This is funny shit.
different-church-lady
I’ve never thought I’d feel so smug about not having retirement funds.
different-church-lady
@Suzanne: You think this is funny? WHERE THE FUCK ARE THE PENGUINS GONNA GET 30% MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME?!?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
Isn’t this market timing? That’s generally not advisable
Devore
Seems like the ultimate shakedown is going on. Every country except Russia of course and every business in the world is affected. Plus almost everyone alive
so what’s the payoff to get your tariff tax lifted. For example, Vietnam seems to be especially affected. What would get their tariff tax lifted? Maybe Surrender and declare America the winner of the Vietnam war? Yeah. It seems that insane.
different-church-lady
“Yeah? Well he’s still not Biden, so there.”different-church-lady
@Martin:
You mean like, in dollars? Like those are going to be worth anything?
Soprano2
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yes, as long as you don’t need the money right away you’ll be ok as long as you don’t sell. The ones who are really screwed are getting ready to retire and are counting on income from those accounts, because even the most conservative investor won’t be spared from this.
Sister Golden Bear
@Suzanne: Those and the new (fake) Heard Island Government account on BlueSky Flippers up!
Ohio Mom
@Marianne19: It’s not just that Trump is stupid, though that is definitely part of it.
There is a shadowy group that propelled him into office, as Hillary described it, the vast right-wing conspiracy. Even if Trump should keel over dead tomorrow, they’d still go on dismantling the country.
no body no name
@Josie:
My experience is that Nintendo is the liberal, and, GASP female console that gets hated on by reactionaries. Male gamers regardless of race have been howling about the lack of bewbs in games for some time now as the biggest outrage. The cause of dat ass unifies men of all races. Then fury that men are still half naked muscled wonders with bulging crotch areas. Nintendo never did either. It’s a good point for them. But it’s earned them a reputation.
Price hikes aren’t new. AI is hated because it’s stealing GPUs from gamers. Scalpers are getting death threats. The price of GPUs is a much higher issue for reactionary gamers than anything Nintendo does. They aren’t on Nintendo. Even gaming on a Mac is more pro Nazi, it’s the laptop of tech lords, than gaming on Nintendo is.
But I could be wrong! Don’t try to make sense of gamers it’s not worth your time. I started with an Atari.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It isn’t advisable. But OTOH, Martin did it long before the events of the last few days. So I wouldn’t call that market timing. If you decide that underlying conditions have changed, and you decide to change your investments as a result, that’s not timing.
I sold up on Mon/Tue. -That- was timing. But even there, I had decided to sell up weeks ago, and simply was afraid to pull the trigger. And -honestly-, even if Trump hadn’t laid on these particular tariffs, I wouldn’t have regretted it. Why? B/c I also concluded that conditions have changed, and where we used to have competent management of the economy, now we had imbeciles in charge, and I was quite certain that they’d eventually break something. I was -lucky- in my timing, but (again) if I hadn’t been, I’d still have felt I was right to sell up.
Ohio Mom
@Anne Laurie: Hope you are feeling g better, I missed seeing your posts.
Eric S.
@Martin: and we’re getting pennies on the dollar.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Sister Golden Bear:
Holy shit that Jamie Wolf guy is vile.
Hilarious to see him chicken out.
“Can we meet half way, 2.5 hrs is a long drive for me.”
cain
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
Apparently, not on Fox. Which is where these folks are. Their entire set of news is something other than the stock market.
eclare
@Sister Golden Bear:
Thank you! That’s great.
Suzanne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): “My wife will be mad.”
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Market timing is usually not recommended for people without sufficient free time and expertise. But I expect a lot of people who did went to cash after the election result because Trump is such a fuckup.
cain
@Josie:
Reddit ‘leopardeatingfaces’ subreddit is cathartic.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I’d bet $$ there was a more sinister reason for his change of venue: his proposed new venue was out-of-town, in a place Guy doesn’t know, and perhaps a place with few witnesses. If nothing else, there’s an important thing that you get in a city: -witnesses-.
Jay
@different-church-lady:
Penguins don’t have a disposable income, they eat, they poop, they vomit to feed their chicks. They occasionally trade fish or squid for sex. It’s a very simple economy.
YY_Sima Qian
When the news 1st came out, I thought Trump was declaring his asking price to Beijing to bribe him to drop some of the new tariffs. Now, it appears Trump’s “Liberation Day” might have short circuited a deal that was in the works.
Of course, a deal might have not been so close, & the reported terms don’t satisfy the divestment legislation (not that it would matter to Trump) or the purported natsec risks. Graham Webster has a great run down:
The entire TikTok saga, from Trump 45 to Biden to Trump 47, & through all of the starts & stops of Congressional action, has been farcical from the beginning to the end.
Chetan Murthy
@Geminid: My retirement investments lost 8-9% before I finally pulled the trigger and got out. And since then? I was in broad indexes, and big tech stocks: I can see that they’ve dropped a ton — like, 10% in just the last few days. I’m gonna pay a decent tax bill, but OTOH, it won’t take many more days like today, before that tax bill is the same as what my losses would have been.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Suzanne:
How much you wanna bet there is no wife?
cain
@Martin:
yes, but MAGA social security recipients are going to be pretty pissed. The Gen Y and Gen Zs have never experienced what Boomers and Gen Xers have experienced in terms of economy. So, it’s always been a struggle for them – so they might not be as engaged as the Boomers and GenXers.
Jay
@Devore:
Vietnam is in talks with China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Cambodia, the Philippines and Laos for a free trade zone.
MagdaInBlack
@different-church-lady: I’m not feeling smug, but I am feeling kind of Bobby McGee-like. As in “when ya aint got nuthin…..
different-church-lady
@Geminid: There is now the before-time and the after-time. The secret to successful investing in the after-time is to have pulled your money out in the before-time.
Ohio Mom
@tobie: I wish your mom a swift recovery from her surgery.
Next time, bring a friend to sit with you (or have friends do shifts if it’s a long surgery). You deserve to be distracted from those stupid conversations and supported.
In the mean time, take good care of yourself, cut yourself a lot of slack. It’s exhausting work, caretaking.
different-church-lady
@Jay:
WHAT THE HELL YA THINK POOP IS, FELLA?
Scout211
@Sister Golden Bear: Thank you! I just laughed my way through the whole thread. I needed that.
And a comment in the thread from the NYT Pitchbot!
Jay
@Sister Golden Bear:
Thank you so much.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Soprano2:
Bonds might not even be as safe as they were in the past.
@Sister Golden Bear:
I love that the profile picture is a penguin holding a machete. Menacingly!
Suzanne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I have no doubt you’re correct. That dude has divorced-dad energy.
David Collier-Brown
@Motivated Seller: Actually, half the voters said “burn it down”. The other third of the populations said “I dunno”
Two thirds of the US voted against Mr Trump, or abstained.
MagdaInBlack
@Sister Golden Bear: That’s fantastic. Thank You!
Chetan Murthy
@David Collier-Brown: Problem is, we used to be able to say that abstainers were potential Dem votes …. and even have reason on our side. But lately, it isn’t so obvious. Sigh.
no body no name
https://www.vox.com/culture/407365/nintendo-switch-2-delay-preorder-tariff-trump-how-to
On Nintendo
bbleh
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think of market timing more as buying and selling short-term — daily or weekly or even monthly — and I agree it’s not advisable for individuals because the pros are full-time and can move faster so you’re always going to be behind the curve and can get left holding the bag.
OTOH shifting investments long-term — say, once a year or several years — in response to equally long-term and truly significant economic changes CAN make sense for individuals imo. I sold out of stock funds several weeks ago, avoided some very big losses (ideally I shoulda sold two days earlier but that kind of distinction is what I think of as market timing), and probably will buy back in … later this year? next year? depending on whether and to what degree a recession materializes. But I do none of those things lightly or on a hunch.
David Collier-Brown
@Josie: In Canada, it’s probably fraud. “Seek legal advice”. Ask them if it’s civil or criminal.
NotMax
OT.
What a massive putz.
Throw the book at him.
Jay
@different-church-lady:
Guano, and it’s a trade marked brand, like Brawndo.
eclare
@Ohio Mom:
Were you the one who told me as I waited with my mom in the ER that there are two places that you need someone on the outside: prison and the hospital?
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Goku, I thought I should add that you’re definitely right that “market timing” is usually a dumb thing to do. Back in 2018, when good ol’ Kums (a)Lone came out with that “pedo boy” crack, and his cray-cray plans for hyperloop, tunnels, and all that other buuuuullllshit, I decided to sell the Tesla stock my mom had bought for me ages before. It was on shaky ground at the time, but that wasn’t why I sold: I sold b/c I thought ol’ Kums was a grifter, and too much of the stock price was tied-up with his management of the company. So I sold.
In the years that have passed, the stock price has gone up 10x, right? I could feel badly about that, but I don’t: the reason I sold, is the reason I haven’t bought back in. He’s a grifter, and I don’t trust him to run any company I’d invest in.
p.a.
“… a cargo cult centered around a red hat…”😂😂😂😂😂
needed the laugh.
We all need those respites from the horror. Besides others’ snark, comedy etc internally one thing always makes me smile: thinking to myself: Boaty McBoatface.
Have some? Personal memories? People? Pratfalls?
tobie
@Ohio Mom: Very sweet of you to say all this. Anesthesia has such strange effects on people. My mother couldn’t remember how she got to the hospital but she remembered telling me about an aria from Verdi’s Otello before being wheeled into the ER. I guess it’s the things you love that stick with you, not routine things like sitting in a car.
David Collier-Brown
@Gvg: Ask your legal rep about whether a failure to keep prices the same is “force majure”, and authorises the seller to break the contract.
(Force majeure circumstances may include, without limitation, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, floods, natural disasters, other disasters, epidemics, public health emergencies, fire, war risks (wars, military actions or military operations, whether a state of war has been declared or not, military invasions, … etc)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
You could be right. These people, as stupid as they often are, should not be underestimated
The Dead Kennedys had these guys’ numbers 40 years ago.
ThresherK
Somewhere between avian flu and the Trump Tariff creme brulee (which I do a pretty mean one of) is going to be the rich person’s dessert soon.
TS
Apologies for the picture in the link, but I thought his was a good read on what is happening to the world economic order, as per the ABC news in Australia (Govt owned news source )
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-05/trump-tariffs-upend-80-year-old-world-economic-order/105139464
My retirement is about to be seriously upended, the retirement investment fund is not going to look pretty by the middle of next week.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Dead Kennedys lyrics come up at LG&M frequently. 100% agree with you.
Sister Golden Bear
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Well, going to the Uniqlo at Stonestown Mall would mean having to leave MAGAstan and go a store (and a mall) where the customers are predominantly Asian. In a screenshot I saw elsewhere, Derek Guy jokes about posting “I’m right here, where are you?” as he leads the MAGA on a wild goose chase around the mall.
Pennsylvanian
@Allen Henderson: I think you could add more words. I’d be interested.
David Collier-Brown
@different-church-lady: I recommend Swiss Francs. I used those myself, during massive inflation of the Canadian dollar
Susan of Texas
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I am hoping that the people who elected Trump twice will let their fun new poverty override their authoritarianism. The car dealership owners and small businessmen who supported him for lower taxes and less regulation didn’t vote for Chapters 11 and 13.
NotMax
@ThresherK
Ready for sugar crusted vinegar pie?
:)
Ohio Mom
@eclare: Yes, that is an old joke I pull out and use when called for, and I do have a vague memory of a Juicer in the emergency room with their mom, that was years ago, wasn’t it?
Obviously that medical encounter was successfully completed. May this one be as well. Your mom must be a tough old bird for the doctors to agree to do surgery on her at 96.
TS
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Millions will do exactly that – and with trump saying this is just an opportunity to buy – the billionaires will buy and buy, so the last remnants of wealth are going to them and they will have it all – 100%
Martin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yes. It’s not advisable because normal people don’t have the time to do proper research, and because in most cases the market cannot be timed.
But sometimes you get some shithead capable of moving the entire economy broadcasting their intentions through a bullhorn.
But if you really, really know what you’re doing you can time the market very narrowly. I was very successful timing the market around Apple announcements because I did a LOT of research around the company and understood a number of dynamic around the company better than the CNBC guys, not because I was smarter them, but because they didn’t have the time to dig into one company as much as I could. I couldn’t time the market arbitrarily, but in these specific circumstances, I could more often than not get it right, and if you can place enough bets you can win that stochastically.
But note, I didn’t pull all of my money out, because in a stagflation scenario, cash is a bad place to have your money. If equities held, I’d lose some opportunities on the cash, and if equities fell, I’d have an opportunity to buy in later. It’s a diversification strategy, the timing of which was only marked by the election of someone who unlike every previous president in the US R and D, does not act in good faith for the betterment of the US economy. I thought GWBs polices were terrible, but I never doubted that he thought he was doing right by the economy. That doesn’t apply to Trump.
So my timing of the market was akin to hiding the valuables when the masked men with bags written ‘stolen loot’ on the side showed up at the front door. That’s just sensible, IMO.
MagdaInBlack
@NotMax: Oh my! I bet that is delicious.
Pennsylvanian
@TS: Private equity will not be satisfied until they can buy the air we breathe and lease it back to us.
Chetan Murthy
I’m trying to figure out how to educate myself enough to find investment opportunities ….. frankly overseas, but I guess in the US too. Eventually. And it’s tough. It seems like the FT is the place to go for this sort of education (long-term: I’m not talking about short-term). Sigh. For sure, I worry that I’ll stay out of equities for too long, and inflation wil eat away at my savings.
NotMax
@MagdaInBlack
Recipe popular as a cost-cutting measure from the Depression.
PsiFighter37
@Chetan Murthy: Buy gold, or alternatively, figure out if there is an easy way to set up a foreign bank account and deposit your money there.
The dollar losing reserve currency status is the natural end-state outcome of the policies being implemented, and you are beginning to see the start of it now – where despite the market crashing, the dollar is also weakening. If the goal is to truly onshore jobs to America, then the only way to do that is to make America a poorer place so that it is attractive for others to invest in.
When retail starts selling (institutional has been the ones driving the fire sale the past couple of days), the pain will get even worse.
eclare
@Ohio Mom:
I remember that from 2017 it was so wise! The hospital I learned about first hand. I learned the importance of someone on the outside when you’re in prison from The Wire.
Tazj
So many people who thought having to wear a mask was crime against humanity and too much of a sacrifice are just fine with people losing their jobs and their money for Trump’s stupid economic experiments.
They claim Democrats don’t care about the troops but are fine with Trump’s ignorance of an accident. And when the soldiers are recovered and sent home, instead of being there for their return, Trump is out golfing.The people of Lithuania were more respectful of our troops and their sacrifice than Trump.
Chetan Murthy
@PsiFighter37: I -have- opened a foreign bank account (HSBC in Jersey). But deposit insurance is very limited, so I still have to find places to invest the money. All these years, I basically just stayed invested in broad market indices (like Jack Bogle argued) and left it sit. Now I have to actually figure out what to do with it.
eclare
@tobie:
I hope your mom’s surgery went well and that she will be released to recuperate at home quickly.
You are a wonderful person to stay with her.
MagdaInBlack
@NotMax: It’d be custardy sorta and tangy sweet. It would be interesting with some of the flavored vinegars we have available now….raspberry maybe?
p.s. my mother was born in 1915, so i’m quite sure she would be familiar with this pie.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Canada has strong deposit insurance and strong banking regulations.
thruppence
I saw Putin laughing with delight…
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: If I were able to move to Canada that would quite fit the bill. But since getting a long-stay visa is well-nigh impossible for a 60+yo retiree, and I’m unwilling to be an undocumented immigrant, that’s kind of out. Between Portugal, Spain, NL and FR, I think it’s reasonable to expect to be able to get a long-stay visa in the EU.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: So, the problem is that when you have a person leading your country who does not have an ideology or strategy you can plan around (even if it’s a bad one), there is no safe place to go. They have floated the idea of not paying Treasury holders, so Treasuries may or may not be safe. Investing in foreign markets looked safer until the tariffs came out so broad based and so high. Not so clear now. You cannot plan or strategize in this environment. And it’s incredibly disempowering because there’s literally nothing you can do, and that’s part of the point. If you can afford to do so, spread your assets as widely as possible and hope one of them doesn’t get hit, and focus not on what you’ve lost, but on what you manage to not lose, because that’s the victory condition right now.
I’m still mostly in the market, but I can afford to be. I can hold and wait. Most of my Apple stock I bought 28 years ago. What’s another 3 years? Meanwhile, I can ride on other resources. Most people don’t have that option. And the richer you are, the more risk you can afford to take and use time to solve those problems. When you’re poor, you have to miss out on that, which keeps you poor.
This is what income inequality does. It’s a system that redistributes opportunities from the poor to the rich. This is why I’ve been saying the economy isn’t as good as everyone insisted it was, because the opportunities for people at the lower end of the ladder are shrinking. None of that is reflected in the GDP and unemployment numbers. It’s reflect in people having full time jobs and living in their cars, which isn’t something we measure.
Lily
I think: if declaring an “emergency” to exert control over tariffs (and therefore companies) is allowed to stand, another emergency declaration will follow to exert increasingly extreme control. Adding to the urgency to strike this down. (In addition to economic disaster and the total impoverishment of workers barely paid as it is who serve the export machine to the US).
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Vietnam is talking about potential bilateral FTAs, right? The PRC will veto Taiwanese membership in any multilateral FTA, unless a more friendly government is in Taipei. Vietnam is already in the RCEP FTA w/ all of the countries in your list (except Taiwan), and also the CPTPP FTA w/ most of those countries (except the PRC).
The PRC, South Korea & Japan are resuming & accelerating their FTA talks, on hold during the Biden term, which would then smooth the path for the PRC to enter the CPTPP. Canada is now entirely inlikely to veto the PRC’s application on the U.S.’ behalf (will need an agreement to mutually drop the tit-for-tat tariffs the PRC & Canada placed on each other, however). The UK just might, but it could face enormous pressure from the other members of the CPTPP block (if they deem the PRC’s concessions to be acceptable) to refrain from being obstructionist.
A Comprehensive Agreement on Investment was reached between the PRC & the EU in 2020, but ratification stalled after the EU sanctioned PRC officials for oppression of Turkic minorities in Xinjiang, & the PRC sanctioned MEPs in retaliation. That agreement can be picked up any time, if the two sides can find a face saving off ramp from their current geopolitical & trade tensions, most likely involving the PRC helping to guarantee a ceasefire in Ukraine, & a willingness to transfer tech as part of manufacturing investments in the EU (in exchange for moderation of EU tariffs on select PRC goods).
Steve in the ATL
@eclare: once saw Fred Savage get his fake ID confiscated at the Treehouse!
MagdaInBlack
@thruppence: Been thinking something like that myself.
Chetan Murthy
Martin, I’m curious: why do you say this. Sure, the tariffs will cause recessions in (e.g.) the EU. But once those recessions bottom-out, I’d think it’d be a safe place to invest, b/c the people running the EU aren’t insane. Whereas in the US ….. until Trump and his MAGAts are gone, I don’t see the US as a safe place to invest.
eclare
@Steve in the ATL:
Wow! About how old was he, do you think?
Seems like a stupid place to use a fake ID, a restaurant. I’d want to go to Velvet, and I did, lots, but with real id.
Steve in the ATL
@eclare: maybe 19 or so? The bouncer has no idea who he was. I guess meatheads didn’t watch the Wonder Years!
eclare
@Steve in the ATL:
Probably a safe assumption.
Harrison Wesley
@Jackie: He prefers natural cures like starvation.
artem1s
@Jackie:
if they are taking drugs that work, then the glitterati don’t get to fat shame them.
John Cole
@Sister Golden Bear: The most painful part won’t be getting your ass kicked by derek but his critique of your outfit afterwards
Melancholy Jaques
@bbleh:
The fact that this explains the whole Trump MAGA appeal is something that the political media will never acknowledge because of what is says about voters & themselves.
And for both, their thinking never goes beyond “What did Trump do or say today? Isn’t he something? What will he do next?”
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: Because foreign governments will feel the need to invoke reciprocal tariffs, and because so much of the modern global economy goes through the US (damn near every digital device makes a stop of some sort in the US) the entire global economy is going to be pulled down by this.
The US is utterly dominant in everything surrounding the internet to a degree that no country has ever dominated global industry before. Assuming fully reciprocal tariffs, 80% of that all got about 50% more expensive to everyone on the planet. You can’t avoid a global slowdown in that scenario, and it becomes completely uncertain how decisions will be made in this new environment. I think it’s unavoidable that the US will lose a lot of that dominance, but it’s not clear HOW. Read YY_Sima Qian’s posts highlighting how well positioned China is to step into that role. So far, the US has been able to quash a lot of that ambition, but all bets are off now. South Korea is also well positioned but their political turmoil will undoubtedly undermine that. Taiwan could be ascendent but China is unlikely to allow that. Europe is wanting to reclaim their role in this space, but it’s not clear they have a strategy to do that. The global community is unlikely to welcome China to win, but they are the ones best positioned and it could take a decade for Europe to get positioned. So where do you put your money? It’s sometimes easier to see the train coming than it is to figure out which side of the track to jump to safety to.
catclub
@Martin:
How? Are the retail investors selling? All the Vanguard retirement investors?
I see this not as a transfer but evaporation of paper wealth.
Harrison Wesley
@eclare: Well, we do get a clown show.
Sister Golden Bear
@John Cole: Absolutely true.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
in 2024, Canada “returned” a total of 16,000 illegal immigrant actions. One US guy, 14 times.
The basic rule of thumbs are:
-don’t do crimes. (70%)
-don’t come on a work or education visa, and over stay. (20%)
-don’t do a marriage scam.*
It’s easy to be “invisible” in Canada.
*1 rated response to a stupid question from the US.
Q- What do you guys call Gay Marriage?
A- It’s marriage. We don’t care what team you play for, it’s not hockey.
JustRuss
I was just talking to a friend of mine who’s a financial adviser. He says his liberal clients are having meltdowns, and the Magas are all “I’m not worried, I’m sure he has a plan.” Delusion ain’t just a river in Egypt.
catclub
@different-church-lady: disposable outgo
mvr
@different-church-lady: If things keep going a number of other people are going to have that same reason to feel smug.
I just reached full social security retirement age in March, just in time to have my saved retirement deal with this and to have them start fucking around with social security. I had made some adjustments for an expected downturn so I’m only about half as damaged as I might have been, But it isn’t nothing and it is not over.
I’m sort of willing to take some losses if it means that there will be more serious opposition to this administration. Another week like this one would likely make a big political difference in Congress. Especially as they mess with social security which will hurt everyone eventually and many people relatively quickly.
RevRick
@hrprogressive: The classic fascist regimes of Germany, Italy and Japan went to great lengths to build up their national economies, spending tremendous amounts on public infrastructure. They came to power because of crashes, not to initiate them. They came to grief driven by their claims of racial/ethnic superiority.
The fascist regimes of Portugal and Spain far outlasted them, because theirs was the inwardly focused fascism of a hyper Catholicism. They even became part of NATO.
Of course, the original modern fascism was Jim Crow, and perhaps that’s what you have in mind.
TS
@Tazj:
Don’t forget Benghazi! That went on forever with the GOP and the media. Now there are so many horror stories every day, they are gone within 24 hours.
Really makes one remember how “no drama” President Obama really was – there was so little to complain about – every complaint lasted months – if not years.
Jay
@JustRuss:
I think you meant “de Nile”.
r/Leopards Eating Faces shows that while they are so close to a clue,…………… it’s in astronomical units.
Martin
@catclub: Because retirees generally need to sell those assets when they retire to generate income. Retail investors may be holding those for a down payment on a house or college or something like that. Their ability to hold through a long downturn is limited, so statistically speaking, that money turns over pretty regularly.
But if you’re rich, you never need to do that. Most rich people would get a low-interest loan to cover their expenses using those assets to secure the loan, buying time until the assets recover. Normies can’t do that.
So when it comes time to buy assets, they’re now even richer (relative to the overall share of wealth) than they were before, and they can outcompete everyone else, making themselves even richer. They don’t fucking care about inflation and wages and a lot of the normal economic metrics. They operate well above that. So long as asset values are growing faster than inflation over a long enough period of time, they’re golden. And we’ll give them tax breaks on those loans and so on, which makes it even harder for them to fall behind.
This was super obvious in the financial crisis when all the guys who ran up housing prices and wrote bad loans came back a year later and started buying foreclosures and flipping them. The biggest problem in the market then was nobody had money to spend – but the guys who perpetrated all of this did. They had cash, and they made even more money on the way back up.
This is why so many people have given up on the traditional economy – because these guys will cheat you on the way up and then cheat you again on the way down. Why play fair when they don’t, get to fuck you over, and then walk away without punishment? Why shouldn’t I be the guy fucking people over through crypto or meme stocks or influencer scams or whatever.
catclub
@Jackie:
1.Those drugs are pricey.
2. People are paying for them out of pocket.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: To your point, the only place where U.S. Big Tech does not dominate the online platforms is the PRC, & that is because the CPC regime’s onerous censorship requirements has deterred most US Big Tech from operating in the market, drove the few that did out over the course of the 2010s. That is why only the PRC can be competitor w/ the U.S. in AI, because it has the ecosystem, the human capital, the data & the funding to be competitive.
I’ve always maintained that a PRC global hegemony is not in the cards, because I expected the U.S. to remain very powerful, & there are too many middle powers (some are aspiring great powers, such as India) that will stubbornly defend their interests, even if they are very unlikely to rally around the U.S. to try to contain the PRC. I never expected MAGA to surrender the U.S.’ position so thoroughly & so quickly, & the destructive way it is doing so will harm just about every one of those middle powers more than it would the PRC. I’m pretty sure Beijing didn’t either. So, now the possibilities are wide open.
There are few ways for foreign investors to directly benefit from the PRC filling the U.S.’ vacuum, however. The way the PRC economy is organized, there is intense competition that drive down margins & discourages rent seeking in every industrial & consumer facing sector. Even the stated owned monopolies & oligopolies serve to reduce the cost of public goods, critical inputs, & financing. & the partially closed capital account makes repatriation of capital gains cumbersome. So, not an economic system that favors equity investors & the globally mobile capital owning class.
catclub
@Jay:
Denial is not just a (dyslexic) mountain in Alaska.
YY_Sima Qian
@catclub: Good one!
smike
@BQuimby:
Of course, chili con queso, which equals bueno. What kind do they make in AZ? I’m in TexMex, and hatch chilis are next door (NM). but I never make it AZ. CO is ‘grope your way around’.
Jay
@catclub:
You missed the DJTdiot EO, it’s no longer Denali, it’s back to Mt. McKinley
Just like the Gulf of Mexico is now the Golf of America.
Martin
@Martin: I should make a note here. A lot of successful investment strategies rely on stochastic benefits, the same way casinos rely on the house odds advantage to over a large enough number of wagers and a long enough period of time to pay off for them. It rarely can work the other way because the resources the casino has relative to the individual guests is incredibly out of balance, so even if you win big, if they just wait, they’ll eventually come out on top.
You can do this in the market as well. Dollar cost averaging is a form of this, but there are more direct ways of doing it for greater advantage, and the more money you have, the more of them you can employ. On an individual basis, you can beat them if you can find opportunities that they can’t see. On a collective basis, they’ll pretty much always come out on top. One on one you can argue it’s a fair system, just as a card counter can beat the house. Society wide, though, it’s wildly unfair.
Lyrebird
@Sister Golden Bear: Thank you, that laugh did me a world of good!
I also see that there’s at least a glimmer of good news for some of the ICE-abducted grad students, judges for both Mr. Khalil’s and Ms. Ozturk’s cases have said “nah you can’t just drag them to Louisiana to make that their jurisdiction”. (BSky link to lawyer person, not Ms. Ozturk’s lawyer, a commentator I think.)
Melancholy Jaques
@David Collier-Brown:
The ones who abstained made an unambiguous statement that they were okay with another Trump administration.
Sister Golden Bear
@Jackie:
Wormbrain thinks anyone using anti-obesity drugs (or ADHD drugs or depression drugs) needs to be sent to
re-education camps“wellness camps” for several years to grow organic food which somehow will cure them. I wish I was joking — he’s actually talked about exactly this.Melancholy Jaques
@TS:
That was only a story because the political media hate Hillary Clinton even more than the GOP does.
Sandia Blanca
Has anyone else here signed up to take part in “Operation Anti-King”? It’s a citizen-led initiative to bombard Congressional communications directors with emails next Monday morning. The organizer is Gabe Garbowit, a former staffer for Sen. Tina Smith. (He’s been all over Bluesky exhorting senators to deny unanimous consent to slow things down.)
Here’s the plan: “Get volunteers from every district in America to directly ask every member of Congress’s communications director if they support impeachment of Trump for tyranny. The results will be published in an online tracker, as a way to celebrate those who support impeachment and shame those who do not.
“Afterwards, volunteers who have agreed in advance to do so will write a short letter to the editor for their local paper either celebrating the stance of their member of Congress or criticizing it.”
More information here: Operation Anti-King (@operationanti-king.bsky.social) — Bluesky
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Sister Golden Bear:
Has anybody asked Wormbrain about the possibility of such people refusing to be sent to these “wellness camps” and violently resisting?
Christ, his father and uncle must be spinning in their graves
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
If spinning in their graves were real, we would not need wind or solar.
frosty
@Sister Golden Bear:
The denizens of Heard Island and the Isle of Krill are on the march. Flippers up!
Loved it, thanks for the link.
Martin
White House told the judge demanding that the Maryland resident be returned from El Salvador that the judge has no jurisdiction over El Salvador so no, they won’t do that.
That’s what I predicted a few posts ago. This whole thing is an exercise in violating the laws in order to force the laws to comply to their behavior. If they gave in on this, their whole deportation exercise would be pointless.
YY_Sima Qian
I would like to wake up from this fevered nightmare now (click through the link for the images):
Allen Henderson
@zhena gogolia: Thanks!
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: Been trying to say… big Great Leap Forward energy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Great Leap Forward & Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution at the same time, which is more ambitious than Mao, but carried out by Caligula reincarnate.
Allen Henderson
@Pennsylvanian: OK.
1. If money is power (narrator: money is power), and our democracy was engineered from the start to prevent power from concentrating, then why should there be a wealth exception? Too few brains in control of too much power/money means that groupthink failure modes can do disproportionate damage. So let’s say your ability to accumulate wealth becomes capped at being able to support three generations out or whatever;
2. More brains means more POVs. It’s slower, but you get better decisions because everyone’s slice of reality can help in publishing better predictions of what’s going to happen in the future. I get that sometimes you just don’t have time and need to act fast, but I sure see a lot of manufactured crises being used to appeal to that argument;
3. Information is also power, right? If so, then the ability to disseminate messages at scale is also power. This also needs to have ground rules applied just like economies and rights.
Basically, there are game rules and game players. we have to keep them separate — and separately incentivized. If you’re a player with enough chips to make the game not a game any more, you don’t get to have that many chips.
RevRick
@YY_Sima Qian: I believe that the supposed future PRC dominance is overblown, just as Japan was supposed to be the invincible juggernaut in the 80s. And the cause is the same: social rigidity. And this will be amplified by the demographic crisis the PRC will face as their population halves by 2100. East Asia is in the process of hitting a wall.
India has greater potential.
2liberal
Donald Trump and Elon Musk. America’s slumlords.
RevRick
@Allen Henderson: Except there was a wealth exception in our founding document. The three-fifths clause gave wealthy Southern slaveholders enormous political leverage. It’s no accident that the vast majority of Presidents pre-Civil War were slaveholders or Northern apologists.
It took an enormous loss of blood to break that power, and even now we’re seeing that power reassert itself.
YY_Sima Qian
Another downstream, 2nd/3rd order effect, of MAGA:
RevRick
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Obesity is a national problem, but it is worst amongst MAGA. They’ll be thrilled to be sent to the camps.
YY_Sima Qian
@RevRick: South Korea’s & Taiwan’s populations have been declining for 2 decades, w/ birth rate continuing to crater. Hasn’t stop them from becoming tech powerhouses that lunch well above their demographic weight.
The PRC’s elementary to high school educated blue collar workforce will be retiring in droves in the coming decades, but the size of college educated work force will continue to increase dramatically through the 2040s. The PRC is threatening Western tech & science dominance w/ its huge cohort of STEM graduates produced in the 2000s & 2010s. That cohort will be dwarfed by the cohort that is coming, supplemented by the experienced & established emigrés fleeing the U.S. in the coming years.
In any case, automation & AI will offer partial solutions to the demographic head winds, which is why the PRC is installing more robots than the ROW combined, & deploying more industrial 5G & AI solutions than the ROW combined.
India’s demographics is only a dividend if it can be converted into human capital, en masse. It’s been making progress in this regard, but not as rapidly as the likes of Vietnam.
RaflW
@Allen Henderson: Financial Times (and Economist) put out a YouGov poll showing that outside of MAGA, Republicans are souring on Trump quite fast. What I can’t find is the info on what the breakdown is. Like is MAGA 30% of voters, and ‘other Republicans’ is 30%? Or what. Worth a look, anyway.
Nettoyeur
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): When you are smart enough to see there will be nothing but losses in on horizon (ie now), you may also be also smart enough to see the rebound. Which ain’t gonna be soon with the Trump Tariffs.
Gretchen
@Ohio Mom: My best friend’s sister worked at the hospital where my daughter had surgery. She volunteered to sit with me during the surgery. I didn’t know her well before then, but she offered, and it was so, so comforting. It wasn’t something I’d known to offer other people before this.
Nettoyeur
@Soprano2: I made sure to take the first Required Minimum Distribution from my 401k and cash in an inherited IRA before the market drop. I will keep it in 4+% insured cash accts until the future becomes clearer. We also bought a new Honda Accord at discount (with a 2.49% loan) several weeks ago, seeing as our cars are a 1998 Acura and a 2007 Accord. I expect the Acura will go up in value (excellent condition, a classic) as used car prices skyrocket.
Martin
Update from my son. Meeting today with information from their two biggest customers. Not only is their move of manufacturing from the US to Vietnam still on, they can’t afford to not move to Vietnam. Their suppliers are outside of the US, so their components were going to be tariffed 45%-65%. Manufacturing in Vietnam avoids those costs. Their customers are 80% outside of the US and the ones inside the US have enough manufacturing outside the US that they would get lower prices if his company was manufacturing outside the US and selling into those other external manufacturing areas than if they were inside the US and avoiding the tariffs on that domestic 20%. They were assuming retaliatory tariffs would show up (and some now have shown up) in that. What’s more, the manufacturer with the US production he suspected was reconsidering that, is indeed reconsidering that because their customers are mostly outside the US, and they would avoid both import and export tariffs by not being here.
So far, because the US isn’t the dominant endpoint market for semiconductors, it’s best to just eat the tariffs on the last sale, and avoid it for all the intermediate sales.
Current estimate is that due to decreased buying power, US imports will decline by about $1T per year. We’ll see what those estimates are for exports once the various retaliatory tariffs arrive next week.
eclare
@Gretchen:
My Aunt sat with me when my dad went under a six hour cardiac test, and it was so comforting.
Strangely, or not, the TV just played reruns of Family Feud. I guess the hospital decided that was the least controversial show? Who can get mad at Steve Harvey?
Gretchen
@eclare: HGTV has been the favored channel in medical settings I’ve been to lately.
Lily
This list … wow. April 5 towns
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ldoK16bntMaOkBDanAaFAR9yJ88Q010KqjjRe3ErHE/edit?gid=0#gid=0
Martin
Here’s Maddow’s breakdown of how Trump got us onto tariffs.
I can confirm a lot of the parts regarding Peter Navarro because I had to deal with him for years. He was considered a crackpot by his colleagues. Nobody would have recommended him for a policy advisor position. The only way you get this guy is by random chance, which is basically what happened.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Thanks for the ground level view. Completely unsurprising.
Tom Levenson
deleted
Lily
Fortunately we don’t need half the country for nonviolent resistance to succeed.
Barry
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): “Only if they panic and sell, and don’t stay the course”
I lost my job. By the end of the year, I will have to sell.
Chris T.
@Jackie:
Sure, but he’s also anti-drugs-that-work. He probably plans to combat it by having Medicare patients shipped out to pick lettuce and construct roofs now that the immigrants have been deported. So what if you’re 80 years old, you can still stoop over, right?!
Princess
@Josie: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the stock market plunge has more to do with the emergence of China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence tool than with President Trump’s policies, Reuters reports.”
What concerns me about this is it’s so manifestly untrue and he’s still the guy that financial and investment markets are listening to for reassurance.
Baud
@Princess:
Pretty sure they’re not reassured.
Princess
@Melancholy Jaques: Voters who abstained also made it clear they were okay with authoritarianism. What do they care if they lose the ability to meaningfully vote? They weren’t using it anyway.
Princess
@YY_Sima Qian: Each village in Smerica will smelt aluminum in its town square. Fired Harvard professors will harvest the crops.
Baud
Princess
@Baud: I would hope not but the ones I’ve been hearing from are still singing the same tune they were since the election. They’re using Bessant’s reassurance that Trump will negotiate tariffs down as a way of placating investors to keep them in the market.
Baud
@Princess:
Those people aren’t reassured. They’re in on the scam.
Geminid
From Capitol Hill reporter Jaime Dupree:
Geminid
@Geminid: The Senate debated the Republican budget plan last night, woth a “vote-a-rama” on 14 amendments. Two were from Republicans and twelve were from Democrats.
Evidently Jaime Dupree did not stick around for the process that ended well after midnight. He followed it through “Senate Periodicals.” which seems to be a press pool covering the Senate; a good resource.
Dupree posted sbout a request by Cory Booker for unanimous consent to debate his amendment for up to 25 hours; “sn objevlction was heard. All amendments were defeated. Some failed on 50-49 votes while Rand Paul’s amendment– the last one pffered– went down 95-4.
Senate Periodicals also reported a series of cloture motions offered by Majority Leader John Thune. They related to Ambassadorial nominations, with votes scheduled for Monday. Nominees include Peter Hoekstra for Canada and Mike Huckabee for Israel.
YY_Sima Qian
@Princess: In that dystopia, the U.S. will need to smelt aluminum in town square smelters because the PRC has embargoed export of Gallium (a byproduct of the aluminum smelting process) to the U.S., except there is not enough electricity (aluminum smelting has been called condensing electricity) to go around because the the data centers run by Big Tech are hogging all that is available, trying to achieve AGI/ASI.
Geminid
@Geminid: Israeli PM Netanyahu could watch Huckabee’s confirmation vote from the Senate gallery if he wanted, because reports are he’ll be in town Monday. But I expect “Bibi” will be too busy kissing Trump’s ass. He wants tariff relief for Israel and a commitment that the U.S. will help bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Netanyahu also doesn’t want go home. He’ll have spent four days in Hungary, palling around with MAGA-yar Victor Orban and evading his court trial on three corruption counts. Two more of his aides have been arrested in connection to the “Qatar-Gate” scandal which grows wider and deeper every week.
Now Ronen Bar, the Shin Bet chief Netenyahu is trying to fire, has requested to testify before Israel’s Supreme Court in an extraordinary closed door session, about the PM’s malfeasance.
Netanyahu has been walking a frayed political tightrope for a while now, and he’ll have to climb back up when he returns home. He’s probably begging Javier Millei to invite to him to Argentina next.
YY_Sima Qian
Unsurprising from Milei:
American farmers will love all that Argentinian beef & soy beans coming in, after losing the export market in the PRC. However, such a deal might also place Argentina outside of MERCOSUR, so not sure it will be a net positive.
At the same time:
This is all about establishing Monroe Doctrine 2.0, except Argentina has needed both the IMF loans & the credit line w/ the PRC to stave off default. Not clear if the U.S. would let the IMF to fill the gap left by Argentina withdrawing from the currency swap accord w/ the PRC. In fact, not clear how functional the IMF itself will be going forward.
Milei had campaigned on anti-Communism/CPC rhetoric, but has taken a pragmatic stance vis-a-vis the PRC once in office (out of necessity, like Balsonaro in Brazil did as well).
YY_Sima Qian
I am sure the message went down well w/ the “Indo-Pacific partners” (/s), but Rubio is speaking to an audience of 1:
& I haven’t seen any such messaging from other participants in the meeting.
mapanghimagsik
I did have the pleasure of pointing out to a head in the sand friend that “No, Vietnam is not imposing 90% tariffs on the US. Here’s the math they used to call it a tariff instead and see, it doesn’t even cover services, just goods. The people who told you that don’t know how any of this works.”
He got quiet after that, and did some searching on his phone, and never brought it up again.
pluky
@Suzanne:
@Chetan Murthy:
“laydeeeeez”, is that what we’re calling them now?
Allen Henderson
@RevRick: Yeah that’s a great point. I sometimes roll back around to the “3/5 of a human and not even out of recognition that you’re a human” things and am amazed at the dissonance required. Like, we’re *really* good at believing bullshit when it’s aligned with our interests to believe it.
Allen Henderson
@RaflW: Would love that if true. Don’t have access to the article but it says soemthing I like hearing so will take it as a hopeful sign until I hear otherwise :-)
Matt McIrvin
@Josie: Jesus. Real 2+2=5, “I swear on the Bible that I rode a giant blue doggy to the Candy Planet” stuff.
MinuteMan
@Jackie: And now everyone who voted to burn it down are sifting through the ashes wondering how did this happen to ME?!
I wouldn’t be surprised if a large number of the “burn it all down” folks figured things were already sufficiently bad for them that burning things down would level the playing field by bringing the “elites” down to their level. However, “fire” is pretty fickle and indiscriminate. We either all fight it together or burn separately.