It’s shaping up to be another day NOT to look at your stock portfolio, if you’re lucky enough to have one.
Will Trump keep punching the economy in the dick? His sycophants fanned out on TV and right-wing social media platforms last night to assure us that yes, he will, because “pain” (yours, not his) is necessary to usher in the Golden Age.
But according to CNBC, Trump undercut that message, expressing openness to tariff negotiations. So who the fuck knows?
***
To make up for possibly ruining your breakfast with nonsense from the Dunning-Kruger circus, here’s a pair of river turtles making their way through the swampy muck. I believe they are Florida Cooters.
Stop snickering! That’s really the name! In fact, my little town has an annual Cooter Festival, and for some reason, they sell more t-shirts online with that logo than sell tickets to attend the event.
Open thread!
On The Road – Mike S. (now with a Democratic Congressperson!) – Some very interesting leaves in Namaqualand, Western Cape, South Africa.
Librettist
Trump acts out, and then hides in Florida.
Baud
I think that philosophy is a good one when applied to the last three Dem presidents who inherited a crap economy from Republicans and began the work of making things better for regular people. But people chose to be impatient and cynical with Dems, so now they have no choice but to see where Trump leads them. Hopefully, some of the push back will cause Trump or the Republican Congress to mitigate the damage somehow.
sentient ai from the future
What will Abusive Dad President do next? We wait and whisper among ourselves and try to get a plan together based on what are the most likely possibilities, to mitigate harm, but it’s Abusive Dad President’s house and no one can really predict, that’s part of the dominance display.
The neighbors are refusing to talk though, and where they can snatch their borrowed, unreturned tools back, they are doing so.
There goes the lawnmower. And the post hole digger. One of the many hoses that were long term loans.
Abusive Dad President is holed up in his “office” (the garage) and drinking again.
Can I come live with you?
Suzanne
I am very scared about what is coming. But, I will note that I am a Terrible Person with a small, shitty heart. And, as such, I get some cold comfort knowing that FFOTUS voters will also be suffering.
Betty Cracker
@Librettist: I hope the fucker strokes out on the golf course. It’s gonna be around 90 today in Palm Beach.
Dorothy A. Winsor
IMHO, one reason Bondi wants the death penalty for Mangione is that somewhere in her twisted little mind, she knows people are angry and, hearing no response from the Trump mob, will take matters into their own hands.
Baud
Lost in the noise is the fact that the Senate Republicans are proposing to increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to pay for their billionaire tax cuts.
Raoul Paste
@Suzanne: I have seen no evidence that you are a Terrible Person.
You are a good egg, and I wish you well
Scout211
This happened yesterday.
This isn’t the worst thing that Trump is doing right now but it hurts my heart. They really don’t understand (always a given in these edicts) that the rural libraries are full of Trump voters. Even in these blue states, the libraries in rural areas are in high use for books, education materials, children’s programs and internet. And these are Trump voters, but the Trump team doesn’t care. (But I repeat myself).
M31
love that one of the MAGA talking points is “no pain no gain” as if the pain was the point all along
so MAGA logic says all I need to do to get rippling abs are to hit myself in the foot with a hammer?
good plan
prostratedragon
One version of the “drunk as Cooter Brown” legend.
Matt McIrvin
@M31: Strange, they didn’t mention the pain during the election campaign. Instead it was all “TRUMP = LOW PRICES”.
satby
@Betty Cracker: I’m heading to Florida this weekend, my sister has finally decided to sell my late mom’s condo and wants my help. I’m already dreading the humid high 80s while I’m there.
And, since the dollar is losing value against the Euro, my birthday trip to Ireland will be much more expensive than I planned. But I’ll be 70, and it’s unlikely I’ll travel to either place again. But watch, that’s the month SS won’t pay out suddenly.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud:
Not even then, necessarily. I think there was too much bipartisan rhetorical support for austerity and sacrifice during the Great Recession when pumping a lot of money directly into the economy was the right thing to do.
(I remember the arguments I had with people over this at the time: they told me “Krugman doesn’t know what he’s talking about–his Nobel is for international trade, not this.” Guess what Krugman’s complaining about now!)
Scout211
And The Daily Beast points out where he should be.
cmorenc
There are millions of Americans whose retirement savings in their IRA and 401ks have just taken a big shaving, even while the Trump Administration is undermining the reliability of Social Security, the other half of their plan for support in retirement. Hard-core MAGAs may hold onto the faith that Trump knows whet he is doing and it’ll all come out splendid in 2-3 years, but for a substantial portion of the electotrate who voted for Trump thinking he’d never actually do all this crap, the double whammy of severe erosion in their money and financial security will speak louder than his bullshit. His enablers in Congress in both Senate and House won’t be able to hide or deflect.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
There wasn’t enough spending, but there was some and it helped save the economy.
People like to talk about how they would have done a better job saving the economy and gloss over the fact that we saved the economy.
oldgold
Unexpected:
The Labor Department on Friday announced that employers added 228,000 jobs in March, above the estimate of LSEG economists who anticipated 135,000 jobs gained.
The unemployment rate was 4.2%, slightly higher than a month ago and above economists’ expectations.
PaulWartenberg
Cooter? wasn’t that the mechanic guy on Dukes of Hazzard?
…
…
…
I watched for Daisy Duke. Shut up.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: Public-sector employment went DOWN, at all levels of government–it was insane. And of course it’s being slashed now, and I don’t expect that to reverse.
p.a.
Yes. But also, their bloodlust has never allowed them to accept that the death penalty might not be a disincentive to murder. (I understand the studies on this vary over time and across societies.)
RandomMonster
The first thing I thought was: “I want that tshirt…”
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Of course, we could have done an even better job if it weren’t for the bloodbath of the 2010 election.
hrprogressive
Gilded Age, not Golden Age.
Salty Sam
Yep, them’s Cooters!
Suzanne
@Raoul Paste: Thank you, you’re very kind. I am, like most humans, a mixed bag.
I will also note that I am annoyed about something relatively minor, and yet disproportionately irritating. I bought a new coffeemaker 2.5 years ago, because the previous one broke. It is already having issues….. for some reason, it won’t brew the full pot. DANGIT. I looked, and of course it has a two-year warranty. I am now officially trying to not buy things at all….. not just being my normal cheapskate self. But, like, the coffeemaker is the real MVP of the kitchen, if you feel me. I bought a highly rated, not-cheap one and it’s already being unreliable.
artem1s
weasel words. the stock market isn’t crashing because of China retaliating. It’s crashing because people are
1) tens of thousands are getting fired and no more 401 or pension dollars are going into their brokerages
2) the people getting fired are cashing out their investments and putting them into bond funds or CDs or under the mattress
3) everyone who still has a job is moving growth funds and equities to low risk funds that pay dividends or bonds or fixed cash accounts before the bottom falls out.
4) those 9-10 companies that have been driving the insane bubble since 2017 are being dumped by the brokerages because they know exactly which ones are overdue to pop
5) those companies that will be hit the hardest by the tariffs are getting dumped too – by Americans with investment accounts and the brokerages who know exactly which ones have been cooking their books since 2016 when the GOP weakened the laws put in place to keep the banks from creating the same conditions that led to the 2008 bank crash
6) there will be a brief time when the S&p and Dow go up and down in reaction to all of this and the traders will make money hand over fist as every tries to find just the right mix that will keep them afloat. (I’m betting I’m not the only one whose now getting
dailyhourly reminders from by investment company and/or brokerages to re-balance my portfolio.7) sooner or later one of the brokerages (cough Lehman cough) will make a mistake and won’t be able to cover or rebuy their shorted stock and then we’ll be in free fall until we hit bottom. Then people will start to panic and start runs on the banks to get their cash out – “mattress are us” and “tin cans buried in the back yard, LLC” futures will surge briefly
8) and finally yes, while all of this is going on China and Japan and other countries including Canada will be dumping their US treasury and municipal bonds. but that’s hardly retaliation. it’s just sane business practice to get out before the great genius business men/smartest guys in the room try to default on the US debt.
frankly I find it suspicious all the geniuses discussing the why’s of the tariffs and killing SS haven’t been sounding the clarion about the possibility that what they are really aiming for is to default on the debt and kill the Federal Reserve and all our FDIC protected money at the same time. It’s not like The Convicted Felon hasn’t been doing this his whole life.
Princess
@Baud: The US can afford to carry much, much higher debt than other countries because the dollar is the world reserve currency. If it were to cease to be that, and if the US were to have taken on even more debt between now and when that happens, that would be a big problem.
prufrock
@satby: Ireland is wonderful! My wife and I went there in December of 2023, which turned out to be a great time to go. It was a little cold, but not bad (highs were in the 40s), and Ireland dressed up for Christmas is enchanting!
Elizabelle
I think we need to do GOP Congress/Senate office Takedowns next. Don’t let them hide. We see their complicity in this, too.
And the Heritage Foundation is a terrorist organization, under pretense of being a “think” tank. They are conveniently on Capitol Hill, as well.
Salty Sam
A pour through (Mellita) never breaks down, never fails. Cheap too. Best of all, it makes a superior cup of coffee.
Elizabelle
@oldgold: Do you think those numbers are reliable?
@ Salty Sam: I am a Melitta fan too! With my electric kettle with gooseneck spout — precision pouring onto the coffee beans; a little ritual. Also, easiest cleanup in the world. Need to make some in a few.
Soprano2
Same here. I know we’ll be OK, because we have enough means to ride it out, but most of the people I know aren’t as lucky. I think most of them still have no idea what’s probably coming for them. FFOTUS certainly didn’t campaign on having to cause people pain in order to make things great again.
Princess
@cmorenc: Forget two or three years. They’re promising MAGA that all the pain will be over by September.
Soprano2
@Dorothy A. Winsor: She’ll never get the death penalty for him unless she stacks the jury with rich CEO’s.
Deputinize America
Wife is pretty much in hysterics over her portfolio – COVID devoured something in the vicinity of $300K in earnings between us, but she’s been doing gangbusters since, primarily by putting in 55-60 hour weeks punctuated by nice travel. She’s the saver by nature, and I’m not, as I’m the dude who takes care of the mortgage, electric, groceries, cell, internet, etc.
She allocated 44K to her IRA last year, all conservative investments. Trump has whittled her whole portfolio by something double that since Inauguration Day.
She did have an interesting convo with a client yesterday. Dude is a normie GOPer of considerable means and has some business concerns that are in the vicinity of the Second Amendment. He asked her about how things are going in the international facets of her business. She went out in a limb and said “diminishment is coming” and “people are going to have to be on their best behavior when dealing with foreign counterparts and not stand out” before segueing to how we’re going to make ever effort to not stand out by dress or mannerisms when we hit Italy next month. He responded in a surprising way, saying “look, I voted for the guy and don’t agree with anything that he’s doing at all”.
Basically, Twitler is peeling off his own professional/managerial level white collar support if people like my wife’s client are regretting their choice to disdain the empathetic, accomplished black lady with a killer smile and infectious laugh.
Suzanne
@Salty Sam: I have a little Bialetti, so I will not be up shit’s creek. But I like the automatic…..set it the night before and the coffee is ready when I wake up. I need that level of hand-holding in the morning!
p.a.
Well mightn’t that be part of their (final?) solution? Not just fiscal collapse to defund social programs, but ending the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. I don’t know anywhere near enough economis to know how this affects to 400-ish families that are tRump’s real constituency.
terraformer
@Librettist: another thing Dems should be doing (I know) is creating something like the “deficit ticker” – but which spotlights *how much his trips to FL and other places to golf costs taxpayers*.
I don’t think most people know the crazy amount of planning, security, closings, and the like involved in executing these trips. Particularly galling in light of the “pain” we’re all supposed to accept ahead of the great golden age we’re told is the endgame.
Soprano2
@Scout211: The obligatory “you know how Faux News would cover this if it were a Democratic president”. Too bad there won’t be more headlines about the president golfing while bodies of service members come home and the stock market is cratering.
p.a.
@Soprano2: Yeah, I think I’m ok as well, but being just ok means there will be trips not taken, shows passed over, mild anxiety where there could be none… 🤷🏻♂️😡
terraformer
@Dorothy A. Winsor: and also, of course, any such actions against the rich must not be tolerated (but it’s okay if the plebeians kill each other or those occupying lower rungs of the ladder)
Soprano2
@oldgold: I wonder if we can actually trust those numbers anymore. I think that’s about to reverse in the next few months.
Deputinize America
@Baud:
It occurs to me that ALL billionaire centric events need raucous, edge of violence picketing, including stuff like the Met Gala. Make it a lot less fun to be a billionaire. Encourage them to go into hiding.
Professor Bigfoot
@Suzanne: “Come, sit by me.”
Because I curse them every single goddamn day.
(give ‘em this: they’ve motivated an enormous increase in my store of invective)
oldgold
@Elizabelle: I have no expertise that would allow me to gauge that; however, to this point none of the folks I follow have suggested the data has been tampered with.
fancycwabs
If they wanted to really fuck with us they’d put tariffs on their own products coming to America, but I imagine they’ll do something more targeted than Trump’s “stupidest excel formula ever” method of determining tariffs.
Jackie
@Scout211:
I’m simultaneously pissed and not surprised; after all, they’re only “suckers and losers.”
I hope to Dog Vance stays far away.
gene108
@Matt McIrvin:
I’m not sure there was broad support for austerity in the U.S. I feel like too many people “in the know” treated the financial crisis as mostly a banking crisis. Fix banking and the economy will fix itself. This was a lesson from all the research of the Great Depression. When banks collapsed in 1930 and 1931, the economic problems became intractable.
The ARRA and auto company bailouts were not austerity measures. I think the U.S. federal government did not embrace austerity. They did not do enough counter cyclical spending.
When Republicans took control of state governments in 2011, they cut taxes and a whole bunch of state and local government employees got laid off.
IIRC there was a stretch in 2011 and 2012 when the unemployment rate stayed flat, because for all the private sector job gains, an almost equal number of state and local employees got laid off because of Republican policies.
trnc
But the Magas will believe it and all the revisions to that timeline, just like they believed Covid wouldn’t kill more than
15501001000people.Soprano2
@Deputinize America: Tell her that unless she sells she hasn’t lost anything, it’s all “on paper” or “on the computer”. It will probably come back, especially if she moved it to more conservative investments, but it’ll take awhile.
Betty Cracker
Who’s going to the protests tomorrow? I really want to, but I committed to a friend weeks ago to help her with her mom’s birthday party on Saturday. I’m hoping we can herd the old ladies out in time to catch the tail end of a rally in the Tampa Bay area.
BellyCat
@Suzanne: Worth running some vinegar through it to decalcify?
Professor Bigfoot
@Scout211: Kong Fu-Tze’s advice rings in my ears: “…If your plan is for 100 years, educate children.”
Only in their case, it’s “DON’T educate children.”
eclare
@Betty Cracker:
Here’s pulling for a stroke! Let’s go sun!
Soprano2
@p.a.: I had a co-worker almost yell at me last year to not tell her that the economy was good because it wasn’t, everything was too expensive and people were struggling. I wonder how she’ll be feeling in a couple of months if the worst happens.
espierce
@Betty Cracker:
Bone-saw tour event is at his place in Miami (Doral), so hopefully 95° down there and may your wish come true!
ETA: mmmmmm, Cooters! That’s some good eating
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Matt McIrvin:
Ain’t that the truth. All one had to see were the people on Obama’s economic team to see the policy prescription, Austerity!™, to see how that would go.
I always say that when The Revolution starts, the first house I’m visiting is Larry Summers.
That’s why it was manna from heaven when Biden’s bill’s passed during a time that could have led to a lot worse, and would have should Hair Furor have won his 2nd term that time.
Betty Cracker
@satby: I think a front is supposed to blow through and cool things off at the beginning of next week. It’s been a coolish spring by the usual standards.
So far, I haven’t had to turn the A/C on. I can usually make it at least to mid-May without it. Good luck selling the condo! And have fun in Ireland! I’ve never been but would love to go someday.
p.a.
BLS via Calculated Risk
Interesting that much of the job growth is in sectors now being whacked by donnie dumbo.
Suzanne
@BellyCat: Did that once. Might need to do it again.
p.a.
I’ve read it doesn’t really help. Also too, don’t be like me: I did the vinegar trick then made a cup without doing 3-4 rinses.🙄🤢
Geminid
@Scout211: The four soldiers killed in that training accident were Staff Sergeant Troy Knutson-Collins, age 28, from Battle Creek, Michigan; Staff Sergeant Joseph Duenez, 25, from Joliet, Illinois; Staff Sergeant Edvin Franco, 25, from Glendale, California; and Private First Class Dante Taitano, from Dedeno, Guam.
All four served with the 3rd Infantry Dividion based at Fort Stewart, Georgia.
eclare
@Suzanne:
What? I remember when you bought that coffeemaker, you decided to splurge and were so excited.
BTW stock up on coffee beans now, if you haven’t already.
lowtechcyclist
@Suzanne:
Have you tried cleaning it with vinegar? That’s what I do with mine when it has those issues. The owner’s manual should tell you how to do that. With mine, the instructions say to fill up the water reservoir with a mixture of half white vinegar and half water, and brew the pot.
Of course, after doing that, I usually have to brew several pots of plain water to get rid of the vinegar residue so that it’s gone before I brew the next pot of coffee.
Professor Bigfoot
@RandomMonster: First thing I did was go looking for that T-shirt. XD
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Betty Cracker:
Who’s going to the protests tomorrow?
I’m meeting MM and his wife on the Capitol steps. I met him and Steve the Ultimate Lurker there last time.
This appears to be like the last such rally where there’s not a lot planned per se speakers, ie., no pre-determined or publicized set that I’m aware of.
Thus, it’ll be interesting to see the mix of groups. Last time, one group was grousing that another group (I’m being deliberately vague here) was “too prominent”. I turned to the person saying that (one of my oldest friends) and said “Do you realize just how *white* you’re sounding?”
p.a.
If you’re looking to add a few calories burned to your daily routine, buy a manual coffee grinder.
BritinChicago
@Suzanne: “I am a Terrible Person with a small, shitty heart. And, as such, I get some cold comfort knowing that FFOTUS voters will also be suffering.” I don’t think that makes you a terrible person. The only way we get out of this is by FFOTUS’s support drying up, and that may require pain for his supporters. If so almost everyone will be better off, including most of those supporters
ETA Am I rationalizing because I am also a terrible person?
Suzanne
@lowtechcyclist: Yeah, I did the vinegar thing, but I will probably try it again this weekend. Might also need a factory reset, as well.
It’s weird…. It will brew, like, 2/3 of the water that I put in the tank. Like, why not finish?!
satby
@Betty Cracker: Thanks! It’s a beautiful place, and this trip is specifically to visit the areas my ancestors came from. Because when they arrived, they were the despised minority ruining the country with their slovenly, degenerate Papist ways. I hope you get to see it too; it’s enjoyable how much they hate Trump.
Spanky
@Suzanne:
Ah, a fellow traveler.
Geminid
@Geminid: Ed. PFC Taitano was 21 years old.
BritinChicago
@Betty Cracker: You want Vance? I think you might get 80% of the same bad stuff, enough new bad stuff to make up for more than the missing 20%, and that he might do less stuff that makes him unpopular (like tanking the world economy). On the other hand, his being an awful person somehow is apparently more evident to a lot of people who manage—I’ve no idea how—not to think that FFOTUS is.
lowtechcyclist
@p.a.:
His primary constituent, a guy named Vladimir, would be delighted.
Another Scott
@Suzanne: Coffeemakers seem to be intentionally designed to fail after a while. It’s hard to figure out another explanation for something that has existed for 100+ years that still fails too soon.
One old “favorite” of mine was a mostly plastic one with a swing out filter basket. After a year or so, there was enough wear in the hinge and the friction latch that it would swing open while brewing, dumping hot weak coffee all over the maker and the counter. I ended up adding a piece of clear strapping tape to keep it closed…
J loves her one-person Mr Coffee that she got at Target. Was $28 or something (it’s probably going to be $75 next week. :-( ) But it’s not much help if you want more than 4 cups (or one big mug) or so at a time.
Good luck!
Best wishes,
Scott.
CCL
@Salty Sam: Beat me to it. Had the same thought.
satby
@Suzanne: look for “cleaning” or “household” vinegar. It’s higher acidity than regular and is much more effective at scale removal. Or buy a coffee pot cleaner, which is usually a higher concentration of citric acid.
gene108
@Elizabelle:
@oldgold:
I can see job gains in March happening. We are still mostly coasting on Biden’s economy.
Stock market is forward looking. What’s private sector profitability looking like in the next few months.
I don’t think Trump’s policies have had time to directly impact most people, despite the layoffs of government employees and employees at some NGO’s reliant on government funding.
People aren’t cutting back on spending, yet.
frosty
@Suzanne: My coffeemaker just started doing the same thing! 2/3 of a pot. It’s just a cheap one from Walmart though.
tobie
@oldgold:Hate to say but I don’t believe any figures the Trump admin reports. Yesterday a private agency reported historic job losses in all sectors. Trump’s Labor Dept is likely cooking the books.
eclare
@Betty Cracker:
The protest here has been postponed a week due to weather. Unfortunately I have relatives coming to town next weekend.
There go two miscreants
@Suzanne: You probably have already tried running vinegar through it to clean the tubes, but if not, give that a try, especially if your water is hard. Another possible problem (which may not be easy to fix): there usually is a check valve between the water reservoir and the heating element (for brewing, not the hot plate under the pot). If it is missing (on my one-cup coffeemaker it is just pressed in, and eventually pops out & I have to press it back in), or jammed open, hot water will backflow into the reservoir. This causes the thermostat to shut off the brewing element early.
ETA: Too slow as usual!
lowtechcyclist
@Betty Cracker:
Meeeeee!!!!
Already paid for my seat on the Calvert County Democratic Women’s chartered bus. I’ll be making a sign or two today.
Suzanne
@Another Scott: One cup at a time, hilarious. That’s so cute. ;)
Planned obsolescence is such a dick move. I’m actually still salty that I had to replace it at all….. the previous one was a birthday gift from Mr. Suzanne and it also had a built-in espresso maker. When that meth fiend broke into our house while having a psychotic break a couple of years ago and smashed up the place, it got broken.
different-church-lady
@sentient ai from the future: Nominated for comment of the year.
p.a.
@Another Scott: I have a one-cup, not pod: single person. Funny thing, as a cook, people come when I invite them, take seconds etc, no complaints (to my face.). In the old percolator days, no one ever asked for a second cup of my coffee.😂
different-church-lady
@Another Scott: Moka pot. You’ll thank me later.
artem1s
@Princess:
that’s not going to be the case when they GOP destroys the full faith and credit of the US dollar by defaulting on the US debt. If the UK was still in the EU the Pound might have become the currency of choice but they decided to hitch their wagon to the Trump fascism train by Brexiting.
Trump is going to really piss off Putin when all the Russian Oligarchs lose what’s left of their obshchak assets when the US dollar becomes the 21st century equivalent of the Italian Lire.
frosty
@Suzanne: Me too with the morning hand holding. When we got home after two months in the camper the coffeemaker was what I really appreciated!
That and a little more space. And more clothes choices- two eeek’s worth is all I had room for.
YY_Sima Qian
I suspect Bessent isn’t that dumb, but he is performing to an audience of one (pretty much what Western MSM have conceived of how things work in the PRC), & he probably has built a net short position on US stocks. (Video through the link.)
Normally, the idea is to deflate the asset bubble (which the US equities market clearly has one) w/o a catastrophic pop.
different-church-lady
@Raoul Paste:
Suzanne, you’re going to have to start trying harder.
Cheryl from Maryland
@BritinChicago: I don’t want Vance, but I believe the GOP MAGA cult, both in Congress and in the voting population, are more likely to turn on him.
eclare
@p.a.:
Huh…when I drank coffee, I loved my percolator because I could leave it on all day without the coffee boiling down, for the most part.
I switched to tea years ago because all of the caffeine was not good for my anxiety.
different-church-lady
@YY_Sima Qian: Normally…. I remember that….
lowtechcyclist
@p.a.:
My personal experience is that it does.
Bleah!
Another Scott
@Suzanne: AFAIK, most coffee makers shut off when they think all the water is gone because the temperature (measured by a thermocouple or thermistor or a temperature sensitive switch) is rising too fast. You usually hear a “click” when it reaches that point.
If it’s stopping too quickly, then it might be that that sensor or temperature sensitive switch has somehow failed (but I would think it would normally fail the other way – it wouldn’t shut off rather than shutting off too early).
But it really depends on the details of the design. (If the heating is based on a timer rather than temperature, then that might mean that the heater has shifted (not getting the water as hot in the allotted time).
Anyway, it might be a relatively easy fix (depending on how take-apart-ible it is and how easy it is to get parts) if the repeated vinegar treatment doesn’t fix it.
Good luck!
Best wishes,
Scott.
Baud
@YY_Sima Qian:
Whew.
lowtechcyclist
@Suzanne:
It’s a mystery. But that’s what my Cuisinart Grind & Brew does if I go too long between cleanings. So I hit the ‘brew without grinding’ button and it finishes up.
Hoodie
@oldgold: That data was collected before Trump’s tariffs and does not include all of the mass layoffs from the government. Word is the next one may be pretty hairy – if Trump’s goons don’t move to quash all information.
New Deal democrat
This is ominous:
From crop scientist Sarah Taber: (abridged)
https://bsky.app/profile/sarahtaber.bsky.social/post/3llhqcqugrc2c
“ This is a US food crisis in the making
Trump’s trade wars will push fert & fuel prices up- for ex, 80% of the US’s potash fertilizer comes from Canada. Trump just tariff’d it.
What keep[s] your farm afloat during a trade war, though? Free money!
So that’s the “payoff” part of this $10B farm bailout. Now the wild part isn’t that an industry would agree to a cash-for-support deal. That’s corrupt. But it’s ~politics as usual. The wild part is how this payout says “Policymakers & the farm sector have given up on actually growing food.”
To cope with trade wars, logically, US farmers should grow way less grain. They should grow more of the things that we currently import, like fruits & veggies, for domestic consumption. A farm sector that’s serious about the job would be burning rubber to pivot to produce right now. But that urgency just isn’t there. It kinda feels like the US farm sector is treating this like a joke. Or we’ve just given up on doing our job. You know, feeding people!
There’s very little appetite in the US farm sector to grow more produce, even though it’s way more lucrative than grains.
Produce is just more work & investment to farm than grain is. You have to install irrigation, hire people, have coolers, etc.
[But] this $10B [is] Just bonus money for growing grain as usual.
You can do a trade war & cut off food imports. OR you can have a domestic farm sector that’s given up on feeding its own country. You can’t do both! But we are! We’re doing both!
If this is how the US farm sector is rolling- along with other issues like forbidding poultry farms from vaccinating flocks against bird flu- we’re looking at a recipe for some hunger times.
———-
Additionally, last night I noted that Economist Ernie Tedeshi wrote yesterday that we now have the highest average tariffs since 1909 – that’s right, even higher than Smoot-Hawley.
If so, it’s hard to believe the hit to corporate profits would only be 5% (I.e., the amount of yesterday’s sell-off). And maybe that is sinking in with Wall Street, because futures were down another 2%+ this morning, and the market has opened accordingly.
On the plus side, we may have just had our last good employment report of the expansion. Almost all the leading job sectors had gains. The only reason the unemployment rate ticked up was because the number of people in the labor force increased, probably still driven by the huge number of immigrants since the pandemic. So, for that, one last “Thanks, Biden.”
Mike S. (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!)
@p.a.: I’ve found Citric Acid poweder sold for coffee maker cleaning works much, much better than vineagar. Vineagar jsut losens scale and allows it to rearrange itself. Citric acid dissolves it!
But definitely run plain water through a full brew cycle 4 or 5 times before making coffee you would like to drink!
Scout211
Have we discussed the firing of National Security staff at the behest of Laura Loomer?
. . .
The reporting is that Loomer declared that they were not sufficiently loyal to Trump.
Spanky
@Suzanne: Yeah, it does sound like it needs a vinegar run.
I’ve found that that actually means 3-4 vinegar cycles. Run it through a filter, and after the first run you can reuse the vinegar. Also, since vinegar is already something like 95% water, don’t bother diluting it.
Harrison Wesley
@Jackie: Saudi royals put money in his pocket. Families of deceased servicemen don’t. Priorities….
Geminid
@p.a.: Those plastic funnel type coffee makers that you stick a filter in work pretty well and don’t conk out. They require a little more attention, but they don’t take up counter space.
I make two cups at a time with a tall, oversized coffee mug, I’ll boil a little over one cup’s worth of water and then add more to the saucepan as the first cup drains through the filter.
AM in NC
@Suzanne: We got a zojiruchi carafe pot that has worked great and lasted for years for us. We use it every day, setting it for timed brewing in the morning so we’ll have hot (but not burned) coffee in a carafe when we wake up.
frosty
BC, you’re post and WG’s picture remind me of a book I read recently: Blue Spaces: How and Why Water Can Make You Feel Better. Of all the places I’ve lived the one that feels most like home is the house my parents’ moved to the summer after I graduated from High School. It overlooked the Magothy River – water view, not waterfront.
I only inhabited it there for two summers!
Another Scott
@artem1s: Dunno.
The US has temporarily defaulted (over the weekend, for a few days because of computer issues, etc.) in the past. It drives up interest rates some for an extended period, but people still buy our bonds.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the monsters try to force a real, temporary, default this time. The monsters want more interest on their bonds and CDs. They probably figure there’s no real down-side to it… And, they probably think the normies are so afraid of it that they can say “Ok, we won’t default, but we have to raise the Social Security retirement age to 70 and cut this, this, and this, or we will default…” Democrats say no, default, then some compromise is found a few days later with some horrible cuts (but not as bad as the initial proposal), the US pays the bonds late, interest rates go up, and the monsters are happy while normal people have to keep working longer and paying more…
As I said months ago, we should not be railroaded into destroying the safety net no matter what they threaten. If they want to do that, and have the votes to do it, then it’s on them. We cannot protect one hostage by killing another, and mudding the policy differences will not help vote the monsters out…
FWIW.
Best wishes,
Scott.
FastEdD
World’s biggest turtle aficionado here. I remember a Florida visit about 20 years ago when I was on a dock. I’d wiggle my fingers near the water and dozens of the things would swim up like I was the Pied Piper or something. They are just so cool, I don’t know why I like them so much. Turtles really do have personalities. I have one old guy as a pet who, when he sees me eating something swims over and begs for a bite. I give him a hunk of hamburger or fish and we munch together. They do keep you company.
Old Man Shadow
That’s what it will come down to.
He’ll slash your tariffs or exempt you from them if you personally enrich him.
Hoodie
@New Deal democrat:
Yep. The real question is whether the next one will be a fairy tale generated after Trump guts the BLS.
Old Man Shadow
@Scout211: Libraries are sources of knowledge. Knowledge is dangerous. Education is dangerous. These things must be destroyed.
They know. That’s why they’re doing it. They want people exposed only to approved ignorance.
frosty
We take our silver linings where we @#$% can!!
oldgold
The jobs report is about last month.
The Dow is about now and the future. It is down another 1200 points in early trading.
Meanwhile,the Tangerine Terror of Tariffs attends a Saudi golf event and misses the return of our soldiers who died in Lithuania.
Kristine
@Betty Cracker:
I’m going. Will be making my sign today.
narya
I went through a period of about two years where coffee just didn’t taste good to me, at all. And then it changed back. When I was working in an office, I mostly drank black tea, because I can’t drink coffee w/o milk and it was just too much hassle to maintain a milk supply. Now, though . . . I use a small 5-cup pot that I bought maybe 25 years ago; this morning it’s decaf, because I’m going to be drinking tea later and I don’t want to overload on caffeine. When my friend is here, we make a pot of full-caffeine, and then I make a melitta cup of decaf for that second cup. Basically, I’m naturally caffeinated, so I need to be cautious about how much more I add to the system.
Yes, I am likely going to a protest tomorrow. There’s a smaller one within walking distance (I did NOT want to hassle with downtown); I won’t have any signs, but I’ll at least be part of the crowd.
jonas
I’m sticking with my prediction that while the economic shitshow will definitely make for a rocky ride in this administration, it will eventually be undone by some catastrophic national security failure, precipitated either by Hegseth, Noem, or Gabbard, all low-quality DEI assclowns picked for loyalty and other, shall we say, telegenic qualities, Trump appreciates. And now he’s unloading career natsec people and replacing them with recommendations from Laura Loomer, a person so utterly unhinged that the merely normally unhinged idiots around Trump threw her out of Mar-A-Lago last year. What could go wrong?
Another Scott
@Hoodie: They know that’s coming, and that’s why a few weeks ago they floated a proposal to report a revised unemployment number series excluding government employment to replace the usual number cited by the press. “See, real employment is up!!11”
:-/
I don’t recall hearing if they actually have implemented that yet.
Best wishes,
Scott.
p.a.
Goddamnit how do we keep up with these fascist assholes and their destruction! It’s like whack-a-mole except ALL the moles pop up EVERY FUCKING TIME. It’s too much of a target-rich environment. The old joke about the Soviet citizen in a US supermarket: TOO MANY OPTIONS!!!
Elizabelle
@tobie: Are you going to tomorrow’s DC protest?
I know lowtechcyclist will be there. Any other jackals? (I shall def be there, with some friends. My sister and niece are attending the Richmond VA protest.)
Weather looks good; cloudy and maybe 70. Excellent.
frosty
@Betty Cracker: I’m planning to … except for the rain in the forecast. I was also planning to go to DC, figuring the couldn’t arrest us all but I’m having second thoughts because of the logistics and the fact that I’ll be going alone.
AM in NC
@terraformer: Love this idea. Have you emailed Democrats to suggest it?
jonas
Can you even begin to imagine the MSM meltdown if this were a Dem president? The administration would be over. Over.
Soprano2
@p.a.: One good thing about Keurig is that it tells you when to clean the machine, and they have a special solution to do that with. You have to rinse it 12 times after you clean it.
Harrison Wesley
@New Deal democrat: Damn. I’m glad I joined a CSA program last year. Locally grown stuff, small farms.
Melancholy Jaques
@Baud:
Sure, but it took more than a month so I guess they just had to vote for Republicans.
Nettoyeur
@Suzanne: The only way out is for the fucking idiots who voted for the Face Eating Leopards Party to get their faces eaten by the leopards. The rest of us should hunker down, put our money in safer places, apply for second passports (if we can) just in case and wait the fuckers out.
Betty Cracker
@lowtechcyclist: I used to have one of those, and I loved the coffee, but it sounded like an air raid siren, which isn’t a great alarm clock! (This was like 20 years ago. Maybe it’s designed to be less alarming now.)
Geminid
@Another Scott: I think the Republican Senate budget bill includes a $ 5 trillion Debt Ceiling increase.
According to this morning’s Politico Playbook, they are supposed to start debate on the bill today. There will be a “Vote-a-Rama” in which Democrats will propose amendments and the process could take until tomorrow for a final vote.
I’ll probabably follow this through veteran Capitol Hill correspondent Jaime Dupree. He’s on BlueSky as well as that other site.
Speaking of BlueSky, Middle East Eye correspondent Ragip Soyle now posts on BlueSky at ragipsoylu.bsky.com.
Kristine
@Suzanne: I hope it’s not a Moccamaster. But I don’t know if they make models with timers.
All mine does is brew/keep warm. It’s at least 12 years old—may be closer to 15. Still makes good coffee.
YY_Sima Qian
@M31: Xi Jinping is one that clearly believes in “no pain, no gain”, as evidenced by the deliberate deflation of the real estate bubble, outlawing cram schools virtually overnight, & the regulatory assault on the internet platform monopolies/oligopolies, all at the same time as the PRC emerged from the 1st phase of national lock downs in Spring 2020. However, Xi operated/operates under a coherent framework & tried/trying to execute an economic gear shifting plan that is tethered to reality (though still daunting). Trump & MAGA, not so much:
Even so, Xi clearly over played his hand in 2020 – 2021 (domestically & internationally), due to hubris born of the seemingly successful containment & defeat of the COVID-19 pandemic (until the Omicron variants came along). Too many simultaneous interventions, w/ too much force, w/ too much real & perceived arbitrariness, & too little thought on downside risk. The deflating real estate sector has been a significant drag on the PRC economy for the past 3 years, just now bottoming (& just in time for the global trade war).
As for Trump & MAGA, the better parallel is Mao Zedong: advancing a version of the Great Leap Forward & the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution at the same time, w/ all of the megalomania, the utopian euphoria, the ruthlessness & the psychopathy, & none of the intellect & charisma. While Mao left a PRC that was backward & demoralized to his successors, the Chinese economic miracle from Deng on was still built on the foundations of massive advancements (from the anemic pre-Communist Revolution base) in education, health care, industry, state capacity, etc., of the Mao decades. Of course, it is debatable how much of the advancement was achieved because of Mao, rather than in spite of him.
jonas
@Harrison Wesley: Funny, that. Last year he was so dedicated to the families of fallen servicemen that he turned it into a whole campaign photo-op at Arlington. I wonder what’s different this time around?
/s
eclare
As FFOTUS destroys the economy, a comedy skit
https://bsky.app/profile/adamkinzinger.bsky.social/post/3llyiom2g7c22
Wapiti
@New Deal democrat: I think the bulk of the farm sector in the Midwest is producing feedstock for other industries. Corn for ethanol, for example.
Cheryl from Maryland
Going to a “Hands Off” protest in Northern Montgomery County, MD. 1,000 people have signed up – since it’s at a suburban park next to a major intersection, if even 1/4 show up, it will be impressive.
FastEdD
Seems appropriate. Here’s a song I wrote, “Don’t Hide Your Money In Your Sock.” https://youtu.be/WsIUp3xevJ0?si=esA37cIlJmxKHE1b
narya
@Harrison Wesley: Yeah, same here. I can get dairy through them, too (they work with other small producers). I get my meat from a hunter, my fish from Sitka Fish Market (flash frozen, small family boats, vacuum sealed), and any supplemental meat from another local producer. I’m most vulnerable on paper goods and grains, though I have been getting flour through King Arthur. And there are ton of local breweries, so I’m hoping that’s a little insulated, too. The hunter is also a sometime-home brewer and grows his own hops, so I suppose that’s an option, too. I realize it’s all vulnerable in ways I can’t entirely see
ETA: and Rancho Gordo for my beans, though they might be subject to tariffs. But beans are worth it.
Melancholy Jaques
Just checked my stonks. I knew it would be bad, but damn! Down 20% since that asshole was sworn in. And my stocks are mostly dividend stocks, not all that volatile.
I know it’s trite, but can you imagine if a Democrat did this?
Will this have any impact on his seemingly permanent popularity with white people?
H.E.Wolf
This coffee-making thread is very educational!
Back in the day, I’d fit my melitta (with paper filter and ground coffee) into the mouth of my heavy, marbled-green thermos, and pour the water through in increments so as not to overflow.
I’d lug it into work and have one cup of hot coffee at my mid-morning break, and one cup of warmish coffee at my mid-afternoon break. I wasn’t very fussy in my early 20s.
Also, it was fun to clean the interior, every so often, with baking soda and boiling water. (Volcano!!)
RevRick
@Baud: @Suzanne:
Trump is fixated on tariffs as the solution to the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States. But for that to “work” would require two things:
1). For him to stick with them and not use them as a ridiculous negotiating tactic;
2). That they remain in place after January 20, 2029.
Building manufacturing plants is a long term investment and requires stability of at least ten+ years… and probably more. But Trump is erratic and sooner or later the GOP members of Congress will howl in anguish. So, the likelihood of those two requirements approaches zero.
Shalimar
Tesla is currently down 6.3%. The market cap is fluctuating up and down (mostly down) more than a billion dollars every minute
edit: down 6.89% just in the 4 minutes since i wrote that
-7.36%. It has lost over $8 billion in market cap just in the time I could edit this comment
Ray Ingles
I’ll be braving the expected drizzle for a couple hours at the Detroit Institute of Arts, after delivering some cakes for my wife’s bakery. Gotta pick up sign materials today.
Trying to come up with something pithy about how “we beat the Gilded Age once already, we can do it again.” LOLs are not my forté, just “sensible chuckles.”
Hoodie
@Another Scott: Irony is that doing that probably won’t improve the numbers by all that much. As Musk and crew are probably seeing, there isn’t that much to be gained from cutting government workers because there simply aren’t that many. Taking them out of the reports is also probably counterproductive in the subsidiary statistics like the ECI (employment comp index), which shows wages and benefits. They’ll want to create pure fantasy, like those fucked up tariff calculations.
frosty
@frosty: Wow so many typos. In keeping with the secondary comment thread: Not enough coffee!!
oldgold
Too funny:
The Tangerine Terror of Tariffs just encouraged everyone to “HANK TOUGH!”
Hoodie
@RevRick: The other thing is that tariffs alone are not sufficient to do what he says he wants, i.e., they’re not “one weird trick.” Tariffs are useless if you don’t have related investments in the industries you’re trying to grow. The more likely result is you just get stagnation, so the end result is that they do more harm than good.
Suzanne
@RevRick: Agreed.
One thing I have learned from working with my clients as they try to decide how to make capital investments of buildings is that predictability is everything. Even conditions that aren’t especially good can be okay for business…. if they’re at least stable. The uncertainty just freezes everything.
frosty
After reading Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen I’m convinced that we won’t have to worry about climate change any more. All it takes is one launch by one rogue country (North Korea in the book) and everyone fires everything they have. The Northern Hemisphere is destroyed in less than one hour.
The book is very well researched, the author has talked to the people who were in classified briefings and war games and learned as much as she could without having a clearance.
The US has a leader now who once asked why we have nukes if we aren’t going to use them.
Gin & Tonic
Having nutjob Loomer deciding who heads the NSA is insanely frightening, far worse (to me) than having Gramps making economic “policy” decisions. Like Adam says, off the looking-glass and through the map.
Deputinize America
@New Deal democrat:
Fuck farmers. The money isn’t there to support their transport infrastructure, irrigation needs or broadband.
Rurals need to ruggedly pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and I’m going to support primaries against democrats who vote for farm relief.
You know why? Farm relief never results in shared goals or sacrifice by rural voters.
Harrison Wesley
@narya: Did you find your sources through Local Harvest? That’s where I found mine.
Betty Cracker
All this talk about coffee inspired me to go brew yet another gigantic mug of Italian roast. So any future amateur wildlife photography today will be extra shaky. Great job, everyone!
Kudos to rally goers — an unironic “great job” to y’all!
@FastEdD: I love turtles too. Sometimes on cold days, they’ll stack themselves on logs to sun. Someone always gets dislodged and has to laboriously climb back up, knocking someone else off the log, etc. I could watch them all day.
Trivia Man
@Suzanne: once they have cloture they stop trying?
Deputinize America
@Gin & Tonic:
It’ll probably be a flea market stall operator from West Virginia who topped out as a corporal on a 4 year Army contract in 1960, with no foreign deployments.
Harrison Wesley
@oldgold: Is it “Who is Hank Tough” or “We are all Hank Tough now?”
frosty
@Elizabelle: No rain in the forecast now? Great! I wish there was somewhere to meet up. I’ll drive to New Carrollton and come in via Metro.
narya
@Harrison Wesley: I searched for a CSA when I moved to this condo, and I found one that delivers (!). They charge for that, but I don’t care–I don’t have to schlep that way, and I don’t have a car so that’s important. I’ve been with them for nearly 15 years, I think. Awhile ago they stopped trying to grow everything themselves and started working with other organic or nearly organic producers, then added local dairy, and they also allow me to customize my share each week. I think they’ might be how I originally found Sitka (then called Sitka Salmonshares), even. The meat I found at a farmers’ market; they also do a share thing, but I don’t eat that much meat, plus my friend has a freezer full of venison and wild turkey, so I basically need the occasional beef to round out burgers and bolognese sauce. And I am in the Rancho Gordo Bean Club (first rule of bean club: never STFU about Bean Club).
Baud
@Shalimar:
Now 8.8% down.
It rallied a little yesterday. Hopefully not today.
jonas
@frosty: Maybe I’m really off base, but I think Trump is highly unlikely to start an actual war. First, he has this image of himself as this sooper deal-maker and future Nobel peace laureate. He always goes right up to the line, and then backs away if he actually thinks he has to commit to a military action or something (other than, say, drone strikes on some stupid thing in the desert). He knows if there’s actually a war, people are going to die and he’ll look bad. I didn’t say he’d give a shit. Just that he thinks it could make him look bad and he won’t tolerate that.
That said, I think we’ll probably end up in some horrible international crisis because of the idiots he put in charge of our military and intelligence agencies and he won’t know what to do. I think he’s more likely to turn to something like declaring a domestic state of emergency and deploying the military against protesters or something than he is to starting a hot war with other countries.
tobie
@Deputinize America: Amen to this! I’m so tired of hearing how we need to support rural America. There is no more heavily subsidized region of the country than rural America. And yet rural Americans vote Republican because they’re convinced they’ve never received a handout. This is delusion on a massive scale.
Elizabelle
@frosty: I thought about a meetup, but figured it is going to be way too busy.
BUT. I suspect this may be the first of several mass protests.
YY_Sima Qian
The full list of the PRC’s retaliatory measures:
Not sure the last one is necessarily part of the retaliation against the latest Trump tariffs. Overall, still more of a shot across the bow than unrestrained escalation. The PRC has not yet played the biggest cards such as a large Yuan devaluation, probably still leaving the off ramp open for a [temporary] negotiated “grand bargain”.
Also, Xi could have far bigger ambitions: if the PRC is to seize this opportunity to consolidate a Sino-Centric global economic order, Yuan has to be stable if not become stronger, & the PRC absorbing exports from the Global South (possibly even the West ex-US) & building manufacturing capacity (for at least parts of the value chain) in these countries in sectors where PRC industries currently dominate the entire verticals, rather than threatening them w/ accelerated deindustrialization & flooding them w/ PRC manufactured goods
Going after the profits of US MNCs is another high card.
jonas
@Hoodie: Remember when Trump called the employment and economic numbers from Obama’s or Biden’s Labor Department all cooked and fictitious?
Every accusation is a confession. Every. Damn. Time.
Geminid
@Deputinize America: A lot of the agriculture subsidies go to addresses in large cities like Minneapolis and San Francisco, and/or to LLCs with absentee owners
Cheryl from Maryland
@RevRick: and that the federal government have an industrial policy coordinated with the tariffs. Which Biden had with the CHIPS act.
eclare
Ukraine says bye to Starlink
https://bsky.app/profile/manyakitty.bsky.social/post/3llylasnauc2h
Baud
TSLA down 9.5%. I’m rooting for double digits.
Trivia Man
@Geminid: i use a metal filter in my 1 cup pour over and heat the water in an electric kettle. Fast and easy but its not waiting when i get up.
bonus: i let some drip on my finger and let the cat lick it off. When she hears the jar of coffee open she comes running and meows to remind me. She is so eager to lick she stands up on her hind legs like a little Rory Calhoun.
Splitting Image
@cmorenc:
I think there is a chance that Trump deciding to tank the stock market first has made it a smidgen more difficult to end Social Security and Medicare. As you say, most older people depend on both the stock market (where their retirement savings are) and Social Security to survive. Most people might survive a hit in one, but not both.
I imagine that many people dumb enough to vote for Trump are also dumb enough to look at their portfolio during a bull market and determine that they won’t ever need Social Security. Those people might be having second thoughts now.
Geminid
Some Russell Brand news, from OSINT aggregator Niv Calderon:
Calderon said details of the charges had not yet been released.
Baud
Shoot. Slight mini rally for Tesla.
H.E.Wolf
@Geminid: I see that we’re both on the Melitta Team as well as the Xochitl Team. :)
April’s WI elections have boosted my already-positive hopes for November’s VA elections….
H.E.Wolf
@Trivia Man:
Kaffee Klatsch with Coffee Cat!
karen gail
Have read a number of people suggesting if farmers can’t sell their soybeans or field corn they should switch to food crops that people will need. Others have pointed out that food crops are more labor intensive than cash crops; one other thing is most all the field corn and soybeans planted are “Roundup Ready” which means the land has been poisoned to point where food crops would need massive amounts of chemicals to grow. At one time if weather prevented crops from being planted weeds and grass would overtake those fields; not anymore, for the most part the soil is dead. We have killed our farmland in the name of profits and researchers have no idea how long it would take for the land to once again not only be productive but produce food that wasn’t full of poison. I know that a number of years ago a test farm was researching what could be grown that would take chemicals from soil the quickest; the crop that was most promising was hemp. Only it couldn’t be used for textiles, best choices were things like hempcrete or other uses that wouldn’t come in contact with human body.
I lived near a farm that had switched from dairy to cash crops; the year it was too wet to plant until it was too late; nothing grew on the land, not even thistles. When it finally dried the wind would carry away clouds of dust, since the fields have gotten so big to allow the use of massive machinery there is nothing to stop the dust from blowing top layer of soil away.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian:
Another shot across the bow:
I suspect Xi is also trying to encourage other countries to take a forceful stand against MAGA, by presenting the PRC as the leading example. While the US does have enormous leverage over other countries individually (w/ the exceptions of the PRC & the EU, if the latter can act in unified manner), the ROW as a whole has much greater leverage over the US than the US has over the ROW.
Case in point:
(Note: ROW = Rest of the World)
Planetjanet
The S&P is getting close to bear market range in just two days of trading.
H.E.Wolf
Anybody else ever sing Bach’s Coffee Cantata in their choir?
Ei! wie schmeckt der Coffee süße,
Lieblicher als tausend Küsse,
Milder als Muskatenwein.
Coffee, Coffee muss ich haben,
Und wenn jemand mich will laben,
Ach, so schenkt mir Coffee ein!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4Pg4xOskjA
Another Scott
@Geminid: Thanks for the pointer.
Bad linky. I fix.
https://bsky.app/profile/ragipsoylu.bsky.social
Best wishes,
Scott.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Scout211:
This will reverberate massively.
Author’s programs, gone.
Summer reading programs, gone.
Public murals that won’t get painted, gone.
Museum exhibit updates, gone.
This is about as fascist as things can get as it’s about the central control of narrative.
It’s deeply disturbing and so many people just won’t notice because it’s “just” the arts and something called “the humanities” which not just the average person can’t define, but a shit ton of people with “hard” science or engineering degrees.
lowtechcyclist
@Hoodie:
The BLS just pays the Census Bureau to do the Current Population Survey which produces the unemployment numbers. He’d have to gut the Census Bureau instead. Not sure if anyone in his crew knows this. That’s something that might’ve slipped under even Russell Vought’s radar.
YY_Sima Qian
@Hoodie:
The end result will be stagflation, or economic stagnation w/ high inflation, absolutely the worst economic condition to be in, the most difficult to get out of.
Baud
Tesla 10% plus down!
ETA: Now 11.5%.
frosty
@karen gail: Dust Bowl! Everything old is new again.
The Worst Hard Time
YY_Sima Qian
Black humor is called for in such times as these:
Geminid
@H.E.Wolf: I expect the Virginia filing deadline will pass today with former Rep. Abigail Spanberger the only Democratic candidate for Governor. Former Lt. Governor bill Bolling said of her: “Spanberger is a formidable politician” and i believe he is correct and probably could have added: “ruthless.”
On the other hand, it looks like Republicans will have a three-way primary contest between Lt. Governor Winsome Sears, former Delegate Chris LaRock and former state Senator Amanda Chase; a mediocre trio, although mediocre might be too kind a word for Chase..
All 100 House of Delegates seats are up, and I think that’s where the real action will be.
Baud
Ugh. Another rally.
H.E.Wolf
…and one final item, before I log off and start my day:
18th-century coffeehouses were among the places where opposition to tyranny was fomented.
eclare
@frosty:
That was a harrowing but excellent read. I read it years ago and still remember the photos.
Another Scott
@Baud: One has to figure that various algorithms are running TSLA stock trades. You should find something better to do than watch that line bounce around.
(On that page I see that Melon has one for trading car battery capacity with power companies. He probably has one for TSLA stock, also too. Reminds me of the days when Porsche’s profits were higher than it’s gross sales (a consequence of them playing the stock market – blew up a few years later when they had to sell out to VW)…
:-)
Best wishes,
Scott.
Geminid
@Another Scott: Thanks for the correction. My proofreader would have caught that if he hadn’t been making more coffee.
I like Ragip Soylu’s reporting. His long-form efforts go to London-based Middle East Eye, but his social media posts are good too.
Baud
@Another Scott:
I’ll never forgive Al Gore for inventing those.
Elizabelle
@Geminid: I think Dave LaRock dropped out. He did not attain his 10,000 signatures.
Amanda Chase. Trump in a skirt. And Winsome Earl was already whack enough.
From WRIC News/local Richmond ABC station:
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott:
There’s really no way they could do that with the unemployment rate (“unemployment increased to 4.2% in March”), the Current Population Survey wouldn’t have a big enough sample of Federal workers, and they wouldn’t have identified their respondents by that category anyway.
I have no idea whether they could do that with the employment numbers (“the economy added 212,000 jobs in March”) because those numbers were the result of monthly surveys done by the good folks over in the Census’ Economic Directorate, and I don’t know jack shit about how that survey works, other than that they’re taking a sample of employers, so the sampling is totally different than when you’re sampling individuals.
karen gail
Just caught my eye while checking another site; “Don’t sign up to attend protest.” I noticed Heather Richardson Cox had reposted to her account. The warning is that by signing up you might find your name on a warrant.
Fair Economist
@lowtechcyclist: I brew my coffee with distilled water so I don’t have to worry about calcification. I have an automated espresso machine and they recommend and sell a citric acid solution for decalcification. Maybe that’s better than vinegar – certainly wouldn’t taste as bad if you don’t wash enough.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: 👍
I can’t quickly find the headline about the floated proposal from a few weeks ago.
I did find this Reuters story about the various employment and unemployment surveys, the lags, which group of people are left out, etc., that is pretty useful. Some of the February data won’t show up until late April at the earliest.
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
artem1s
@Another Scott: Those ‘temporary’ defaults are not what Trump and Soutpiel are aiming for. It won’t be a hostage situation to get the budget passed. It will be the end game. For all the Monopoly money. I assume there will also be an attempt to transition to one of the grifters crypto currencies. But no way in hell will those ever be a substitute for the stability of fiat currency backed by the US dollar and Federal Bank. There is a reason why the US has been the most stable currency for decades. The world could trust we wouldn’t deliberately go bankrupt (not pay our debt). W and the GOP played around with our credit rating when they closed the government over signing a budget and look at what even that small, temporary flirting with not paying our debt did to the banks and our economy.
These assholes want to and think they can destroy the Fed. The only issue they have with what happened last time with the GOP and W is that they blinked and walked back from the brink.
lowtechcyclist
@Betty Cracker:
With my early a.m. insomnia, my wake-up times vary so greatly that I just push the button after I get out of bed for good.
I don’t want it going off while I’m still asleep for the same reason as you, not to mention I’d be pissed that it was robbing me of additional sleep, and once I’m up, I’d just punch the button anyway.
And my wife and I both love getting freshly-ground coffee without having to do the grinding ourselves.
Betty Cracker
@karen gail: Good advice. I don’t sign up; I show up. At the Tesla Takedown protest in Tampa last weekend, they had a sign-up table under a tree that was occasionally unattended. I saw one of the right-wing pseudo-journalists who were milling around filming the event get a close-up of the names on the sheet.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Hooray!
zhena gogolia
@sentient ai from the future: Yeah, no kidding.
YY_Sima Qian
Ah, Trump lays out the asking price for the bribe, since he & some of his close associates are sure to profit from this transaction:
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: Xi has made a number of mistakes and over-reaches, but at least he has been doing things that will help with significant problems. He’s not been demented like Trump.
Nelle
@artem1s: Didn’t the orange one tout the idea of the US just declaring bankruptcy etiuher in his first term or in his 2020 run? As usual, I was astounded by the lack of coverage of that, the way it just sunk in the media quicksand? He’s declared bankruptcy six times and he comes out fine. Of course, he would think the same would be the case for the country.
Geminid
@Elizabelle: I was kind of hoping LaRock would be in the mix. Sears ought to be able to put Chase away since Chase couldn’t even win her last state Senate primary. Sears will have to work for it though because Chase will bring out her fellow nutcases.
Dems have a couple promising young Black politicians running for the second and third statewide slots: State Senator Aaron Rouse for Lt. Governor and former Delegate Jay Jones for Attorney Genearal.
lowtechcyclist
@Shalimar:
Still pretty much where it was six months ago. So AFAIAC Tesla’s stock price is still just doing short-term fluctuations.
The changes in its market cap sound big, but it’s got a current market cap of about $800 billion. So that $8B change is 1%.
ETA: Wake me up when the stock price drops out of that mid-200s range.
NotMax
re: some of the above
For cleaning coffee machines, two words: Sour Salt.
Despite the name, does not contain salt; it’s 100% powdered food grade citric acid. Can usually be found in the spice aisle of the market (sometimes in the kosher foods section) or from any number of places online.
Very inexpensive. One small container enough for years of coffeemaker cleaning.
Fair Economist
@artem1s:
Even without that, if you were a foreign banker or treasury secretary, how comfortable would you be putting your critical reserves into a currency controlled by Donny Dementia? There’s going to be a considerable shift to the Euro, even if there are no more immediate US financial crises. You just can’t trust him. And, indeed, in the past he has advocated easy money as he had advocated tariffs, so even more reason to distrust the dollar.
Ruckus
@Scout211:
They have their agenda and they do not give a rat’s ass about anyone else. Their agenda is about money – and them having far more of it. Because as we know, money most often makes better humans.
Or is it the opposite?
I think I see the problem.
Money is nice, more money makes things a bit easier and quite often too much money turns humans into raving assholes. It doesn’t have to but it still often does, because some measure humanity in currency. Humanity can show in a range of ways, but money is not a measurement or means of it.
Geminid
@Wapiti: Ethanol production uses 40% of the U.S. corn crop. Most of the Midwest’s agricultural production– corn, soybeans, small grains such as wheat and barley– ends up feeding people or animals that people eat.
Not to mention pumpkins. Did you know that Illinois is the nation’s largest of pumpkin producer? I didn’t until Rep. Nikki Budzinski told me and others. Rep. Budzinski is WaterGirl’s new Congresswoman.
lowtechcyclist
@frosty:
I have a hard time believing this. Wouldn’t everyone know from the get-go that it was North Korea? I mean, unless NORAD goes in the shitter due to US-Canada tensions, or because it’s the next target of the Muskovites.
Another Scott
@artem1s: Maybe.
I assume that they will continue their playbook, though, making people obey in advance. They don’t need to actually break the Fed or the dollar as the world currency – they just need people at the Fed (and elsewhere) running things so that they’re under 47’s thumb. Need a goose to interest rates, or a big signed check to the voters in September? Just tell them to do it and they do it. Who cares what the law and the rules and the norms are – who is going to stop them?? Who cares what the consequences are in the real world, what matters is that people believe things that they’re told…??
Grr…
As you say, crypto is totally unsuited for running the economy. A bitcoin transaction costs $1.23 at the moment. Supposedly a transaction takes around 10 minutes to clear, but “times can vary widely”… It’s play money.
I guess we’ll see soon enough – August or September are the latest headline hitting the debt limit estimates…
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
rikyrah
Rep. Eric Swalwell (@RepSwalwell) posted at 7:56 PM on Thu, Apr 03, 2025:
Your 401k just became a 201k. And the fucking moron who did that to you is golfing the rest of the weekend in Miami. Let that sink in.
(https://x.com/RepSwalwell/status/1907960318778638479?s=03)
rikyrah
Tiff4Mahogany_44![]()
![]()
NATO MEMBER (@tiff4mahogany) posted at 6:03 PM on Thu, Apr 03, 2025:
Only white folks would ever defend a white man losing over $2.5 trillion in our economy.
Anyone else and everyone on Fox News would be lighting their hair on fire.
(https://x.com/tiff4mahogany/status/1907931936267579905?s=03)
rikyrah
The United States versus Elon R. Musk (@Needle_of_Arya) posted at 0:41 AM on Fri, Apr 04, 2025:
the Twitter ads written by white, investor men, that claim that these tariffs will “force better trade terms with foreign countries”
white conservatives are so bad at this
(https://x.com/Needle_of_Arya/status/1908032234839330977?s=03)
rikyrah
Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) posted at 7:24 AM on Fri, Apr 04, 2025:
Just imagine if Biden or Obama skipped the dignified transfer of fallen soldiers… to hit up a golf tournament.
Fox News would be in DEFCON 1 meltdown mode. The outrage would last weeks.
But when it’s Trump? Crickets. https://t.co/NQ5wtBfDZR
(https://x.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1908133648504685054?s=03)
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
Every little bit helps, but its stock price was lower than this just a few weeks ago. And as I keep on saying, its price is pretty much where it was six months ago.
The bubble that its stock price had over the winter has been deflated, but I keep on seeing no evidence of any further deterioration, as much as I would dearly love to see it.
YY_Sima Qian
A key point backstopping the PRC’s stance (see the referenced chart through the link):
PRC corporates make far less profit from the US market than US MNC make from the PRC market. PRC exports to the US, even those diverted through 3rd countries (by means of transshipment, relabeling or final assembly) in the wake of the Trump 45-Biden trade war has been low value added (in the PRC) products. The high value added (in the PRC) products have been barred from the US market by either tariff walls or regulatory barriers (on natsec grounds).
The PRC has been offshoring the labor intensive, low value added industries to SE Asia & the rest of the Globe South for the past decade, & is quite willing to now import such products from these countries (often manufactured by Chinese firms). So the consolidation of a Sino-Centric economic order w/in these regions is fairly obvious. The situation is much trickier w/ the EU, Japan & SK, which are not competitive in low valued added products, & the high value added products where they had competitive & comparative advantage now face rapidly intensifying competition from the PRC. Still, as I have said before, MAGA is a powerful forcing function, & yesterday was a shattering reminder.
frosty
@lowtechcyclist:
Yes, they know seconds after the launch that it’s North Korea. The response is decapitation so NK can’t launch any more – 50 land-based and 32 submarine-based missiles get launched. But … to reach NK they have to overfly Russia. Communications don’t work out, the President is dead because “continuity of govenment” didn’t work out, a successor can’t be agreed on. Russia launches everything. The US counterattacks similarly. Boom!
Various ways of avoiding Armageddon have been discussed for decades, particularly ending launch on warning. But nothing has come from it, so here we are.
It’s a good book, you should read it. The description of the effects of a 1 megaton warhead on Washington are horrific. Like Khrushchev said “The living will envy the dead.”
Anyway
Saudis have always been good at buying off Americans – that was prince Bandar’s primary skill. He knew the right mix of flattery, bribery, cajoling to dangle in front of top US officials. one of the reasons Saudis hate D admins is their relative resistance to being bought. Though the revolving door of the blob is always an incentive.
No wonder they love trump and Jared— they can be bought without any friction – no need to come up with plausible denials
lowtechcyclist
@Planetjanet:
Wiping out all of its (substantial) gains since the beginning of May 2024.
lowtechcyclist
@Fair Economist:
Any recommendations for a citric acid solution? I’ve Googled and there’s a bunch of them out there.
YY_Sima Qian
One vision of how the reshuffling of the global economic order might play out, worth keeping in mind (worth clicking though the link, as the thread contains lots of useful links to other posts & threads):
Gin & Tonic
@NotMax: Also a key (secret) ingredient in MIL’s borshch recipe.
Scout211
So should we all move our investments to oil company stock?
(not a serious question, but still . . . )
Princess
Is this thread still alive? I thought this, from Marshall, was pretty smart:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wtaf-is-going-on-in-search-of-the-plan-behind-trumps-global-economic-crisis
Soprano2
@eclare: OMG that was so funny!
Ruckus
@M31:
By George I believe he’s got it!
Not all wealthy humans think that money is the most important thing. But almost all humans know that money is a requirement in modern life. Not an overabundance, just some, unless you can grow/raise enough food, build/fix your own transportation, build your own house, live in a cave, etc. At one point in time, long, long ago, some form of money was nice but not completely necessary. But in a modern world it is. Not overwhelming wealth, just some. Unless you can grow all your own food, are given/inherit the land to live on, have a cave far from anyone else, etc, etc, etc. The cost of living is far different today than in the lifetimes of people breathing today. Part of that is the numbers, part of that is things that make life a bit easier, like a heater that doesn’t require open flame and gathering wood to create that flame, medicine/vaccines. Modern life is still breathing in and out, intake and exhaust, but how we do that is different than 200 years ago, because of the numbers and that it is a hell of a lot better, easier way to live/exist. An example might be vaccines. When I was born there was one, and it was not the most fun. But many diseases that could cripple or even kill are today mostly things of the past. I have a neighbor my age who had polio, because there was no vaccine. I’ve known others who did as well. Think/look up how many diseases caused a lot of harm and death 75 or more years ago, that are today very rare in most of humanity. It is a different and mostly better world today. Not perfect for sure, but a hell of a lot better.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist:
Reagent grade powder is $54 for 100g – you obviously don’t need anything that pure for this task.
It looks like grocery stores carry it. E.g. $5.50 for 10 oz at Safeway. Anything like that should work fine. It’s apparently in the spices/seasonings aisle.
HTH!
Best wishes,
Scott.
Geminid
Yesterday Rep. Chris Pappas announced he would run for the seat vacated by retiring Senator Jean Shaheen. Pappas represents New Hamphire’s coastal 1st CD.
If Pappas wins, there will be a 34 year shift in age between the 77 year old Shaheen and the 44 year old Pappas. I believe the collective age shift between last year’s six new Democratic Senators and the ones they replaced was over 110 years.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@lowtechcyclist:
It’s a meme stock.
But how long can it be a meme stock when the underlying company is an actual, credible (at least until last year) automaker?
Sure, Edolph and his today Tesla board treat the company as a meme stock and not do things actual, real, automakers worldwide do to stay competitive in an uber competitive marketplace.
That’s the kicker, until last year, the EV marketplace wasn’t that competitive worldwide. That’s rapidly changing, Hair Furor’s attempts to kill it here, notwithstanding. As such, Tesla’s sales are a reflection of the good ole “invisible hand of the market” at work, being helped along by the high profile, company figure doing a textbook example of trashing a brand that had real value with it’s customers.
All of which means I don’t expect this meme stock to crater overnight. It’s gonna take at least another 2 quarters of catastrophic sales numbers to begin to take it’s toll.
And eventually it will because there’s no indication that Tesla’s ready as a company to move on from meme stock status as long as Edolph’s in the picture.
trollhattan
@Betty Cracker:
With your writing skilz I suspect a lot of pseudonyms are at your disposal for baiting the knobs.
YY_Sima Qian
Additional thoughts from Joe Wiesenthal on the global trade war (click though the link to see the screen caps):
NotMax
@Gin & Tonic
Use it when I make sweet ‘n’ sour cabbage soup.
;)
@lowtechcyclist
See #208 above.
Ruckus
@Melancholy Jaques:
He is not at all popular with a lot of white people.
Only the one’s with their heads located in their exit ports, because they see the same substance, heads in – heads out. And think that’s normal.
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian: I agree with Wiesenthal when he says:
“I don’t know how the damage or downturn will compare to the Great Financial Crisis, but there is a sense in which I think this is arguably a bigger story….. With the tariffs, we’re seeing an active choice to affect a dramatic reorientation of both the US with the rest of the world, and also (implicitly) the internal working of the US economy. The lasting fingerprint of this event very plausibly could be bigger than the failure to
rapidly contain the fallout after Lehman collapsed.”
One of the very first thoughts I had this morning, even before the US markets opened, was, “Yesterday was the day that China became the global hegemon. The American Century is officially over.”
That’s because the damage done, especially to US credibility with its now-likely-former Allies, will take decades to recover. Foreign governments will not be willing to enter into any long term deals with the US until they are *sure* that this version of the GOP is just as dead as the Nazis were after 1945. As Macron said, they cannot allow their security to be determined by 4,000 voters in Wisconsin.
The only competitor to China now is the EU. We see Canada allying with it, and to some extent Australia and New Zealand. Japan and South Korea just entered into an important understanding with China.
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: Just a few weeks ago we were exchanging thoughts on just how distant the prospect the end to USD Hegemony was…
Decades in weeks & days & hours.
Ruckus
@RevRick:
Another part of manufacturing is that it often takes training in many side issues/concepts to control both the processes and outcomes. I used to manufacture tools that others used to make plastic products. The concept of the work is not that difficult to learn but does require the people to be able to see and understand the entire process to be successful, as there are a few “hidden” or not obvious things that have to be understood, to go from concept to finished tooling.
dnfree
@Suzanne: Contact the manufacturer, describe your faith in the quality of their products and your great disappointment that the coffeemaker has failed right after the warranty is up. This sometimes works if you are very polite and complimentary.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
I clean my coffee maker by not having one to clean. I have no idea how humans drink coffee but then I have a concept that a large percentage of humans really aren’t. I tried coffee once and while I’ve never tasted battery acid it was the first concept of what coffee tasted like that made me decide that never, ever again would I put coffee into my body. I believe that battery acid actually would taste better. Now the smell of coffee is enticing. But the smell and taste are 2 entirely different things for me. Mom used to drink it like it had some magical power. Constantly. Endlessly. I made up for her usage by not having it for any reason, threat, concept or weapon pointed in my direction.
The old saying – “To each his own” comes to mind……
Timill
@dnfree: @Suzanne: They may also have a simple diagnosis and fix for the problem.
MCat
@Suzanne: I’m with you. You’re just expressing your feelings. Very healthy.
JoeyJoeJoe
@PaulWartenberg:
@PaulWartenberg: late to this thread, but the guy who played Cooter was actually elected to Congress for two terms, 1988-1992, as a Democrat
Gvg
@New Deal democrat: farmers can’t pivot in one day, I am not sure they can pivot in one year. Not only do they have equipment and loans for certain crops, the area they are in, has production equipment to can, or process that crop and ship that crop. They have equipment and loans and there have to be a certain number of producers in a region to make it economically viable and profitable. Switching has to be a kind of regional decision. That is going to be unlikely given Trumps history of backing down or changing, not to mention he is a lame duck. And they know this is going to be an economic disaster, so they probably logically expect the next administration to change things. Because of the loans, they can’t change. They may lose the farms. That includes big corporations by the way. Both the ones that survive with ownership and the ones that don’t are going to make things change. Starving people get really angry and desperate. This move is going to far, but will take time. I hope we can reverse it before then.
TerryC
@Ruckus: Love the smell; despise the taste.