(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As I indicated in an update after the initial publication of last night’s update, Russia came back for another round of missiles and drone swarms around 5 AM local time in Ukraine this morning.

Morning in Ukraine. Ceasefire? Only if you’re not the one being killed.

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— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 3:34 AM

Tracks of Russian weapons used in last night’s attack.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 7:44 AM

Kupiansk was bombed at dawn. Russian forces targeted homes where people still live. Two civilians were injured. The city is being shattered, piece by piece.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 5:58 AM

Kyiv this morning

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 7:08 AM

Zelenskyy on Russia’s latest mass strikes on Ukraine: “Over 1,460 guided bombs, 670 drones, and 30+ rockets hit us last week, including ballistics on Kyiv overnight. Pressure on Russia’s too weak—Putin’s terror grows as the world delays.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 5:15 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The Appropriate Will and Decisions Are Needed to Protect as Many Lives as Possible from Russian Ballistic Strikes – Address by the President

6 April 2025 – 16:11

I wish you health!

I have just held a meeting with the Minister of Defense, and today I also received reports from the military. Last night alone, the Russians used against Ukraine more than a hundred attack drones and 23 missiles of various types, including ballistic ones. And every night, every day, this threat to life in Ukraine continues. We need to strengthen our air defenses – this is an objective reality – and all agreements reached with partners but not yet implemented must be fully activated. The Patriots that are currently just sitting somewhere in our partners’ warehouses must be put to real use to protect lives. Also, both Europe and America must significantly accelerate the production of air defense systems and missiles for them. We in Ukraine can ensure such production, and we need the relevant political decisions. Localization of production and the necessary licenses – this is what will help not only us but all partners who seek security, not war. We have already discussed this with everyone, and now there is an understanding that this is entirely possible, and each Russian strike is a reminder to our partners: what has been agreed upon must finally be implemented. I have instructed the Minister of Defense and the Minister of Foreign Affairs to step up contacts with our partners on this matter. A meeting is being prepared in the context of Ramstein. There are two main objectives for today: namely, air defense systems, specifically Patriots, and the second objective is contingents, ensuring the swift alignment of all decisions and working out all details. I have also instructed that we work bilaterally on air defense, especially with the United States, which has sufficient potential to help stop any terror. The appropriate will and the corresponding decisions are needed to protect as many lives as possible from Russian ballistic strikes. Furthermore, the strengthening of our air shield will also reinforce all diplomatic efforts.

Today’s Russian attack included missiles launched from the waters of the Black Sea. Our partners know exactly which vessels were involved and from which part of the sea the launch occurred. This is one of the reasons why Russia is distorting diplomacy, why it is refusing to agree to an unconditional ceasefire – they want to preserve their ability to strike our cities and ports from the sea. A ceasefire at sea is not just about free navigation and the export of food products by sea – it is, above all, about overall security and about bringing peace closer. Putin does not want to end the war – he is looking for ways to preserve the option of reigniting it at any moment, with even greater force. That’s exactly why all forms of pressure on Russia must continue: strengthening our ability to defend ourselves, maintaining sanctions, and ensuring that diplomacy – any conversation with Moscow – leaves them no opportunity to kill. If there is a ceasefire, it must be unconditional – one that does not allow for the destruction of life. Ukraine has agreed to the U.S. proposal, the proposal of a full, unconditional ceasefire. Putin is refusing. We are awaiting a response from the United States – none has come so far – and we also expect a response from all in Europe and around the world who truly want peace.

Every day the Russian army launches ballistic missiles; every day people are killed. Constant strikes against our Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and other regions. Today – Russian ballistic missiles targeted Kyiv. Every day brings lives lost. Every day brings lost opportunities for diplomacy. All this cannot be tolerated in silence.

This week we have a decision on additional support from the Netherlands – EUR 500 million for drone production in Ukraine and EUR 2 billion to support our resilience this year. Thank you! Sweden – thank you for the USD 1.6 billion military aid package. It specifically includes air defense, artillery, communications, and other vital equipment. Latvia – I want to express my gratitude for the supply of drones for our army. Germany – thank you for an important systemic decision on support for this year, the support has been increased to EUR 7 billion this year. Denmark – there is a new support decision for almost EUR 1 billion, and these are targeted contributions to our domestic weapons production. Everyone who stands with Ukraine now is protecting lives. Thank you for your support! I thank our warriors, all Ukrainians who care about our state and our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also presented honors and awards to those working the emergency response, relief, and rescue efforts in Kryvyi Rih:

President Honors Rescuers, Medics, National Guardsmen, and Police Officers Working at the Site of the Russian Strike in Kryvyi Rih

5 April 2025 – 21:34

Throughout the entire day following the Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih, every possible effort has been made in the city to save lives. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated this in his evening address.

According to the Head of State, some of the wounded – those in critical condition – were transported to Dnipro, where doctors are doing everything possible to save as many lives as they can.

As a result of the Russian strike, 18 people were killed, including 9 children. The youngest boy was only 3 years old. Following the ballistic missile attack, Russia launched a drone strike on Kryvyi Rih, killing one more person and injuring others. The President extended his condolences to all the families and loved ones of the victims.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the efforts of the State Emergency Service, medics, National Guard, and police officers who are rescuing the wounded and working at the site of the ballistic missile strike.

Those recognized include personnel from the Main Directorate of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Dnipro region: Oleksandr Parubenko, Chief of the 14th State Fire and Rescue Unit; Vasyl Denysiuk, Deputy Chief of the 12th State Fire and Rescue Unit; Svitlana Cherednychenko, Senior Inspector; Serhii Haidamaka and Tetiana Kutsenko, psychologists.

Personnel of the State Mining Rescue Unit of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine: Pavlo Doroshenko, Squad Leader of the Operational Platoon; Yevhen Bilokrynytskyi, Squad Leader of the Second Platoon; Andrii Siryi, Assistant Platoon Commander.

Medical workers: Hryhorii Maksymenko, Paramedic of the Emergency Medical Response Team; Dmytro Fursenko, Emergency Medicine Feldsher.

National Guard servicemen: Junior Lieutenant Vladyslav Tychyna and Senior Soldier Oleksandr Vasylchyk.

Police officers: Ivan Trush, Patrol Police Officer, Kryvyi Rih Patrol Police Regiment; Illia Bohdan, Deputy Head of Police Department – Chief Investigator, Kryvyi Rih District Police Department; Mykola Harmash, Head of Forensic Support Sector, Investigation Division, Kryvyi Rih District Police Department; Volodymyr Titov, Acting Platoon Commander, Kryvyi Rih Patrol Police Regiment.

“I thank you. I thank all your colleagues, everyone in the city’s utility services who cares for people, all the doctors and nurses, every volunteer who joined in to help, and everyone who cares for our people and our country. It’s important that we all stand together,” the President emphasized.

Georgia:

Day 130. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 3:19 PM

One of the active participants in the protests, Maia Matcharashvili, died suddenly on April 5. Today’s protest march was held in silence in her memory.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 130

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM

“Euroscope” published a part from Salome Zourabichvili’s speech at Macron’s “Renaissance” party meeting.

🇫🇷 “France is always on the front line… the homeland of freedom and we will always be with it, fight,” she said (via Euroscope).

The audience chanted her name.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 2:41 PM

Moscow on the Potomac:

Trump’s economic adviser gave a comment, apparently cited earlier by Clash Report, that new tariffs on Russia weren’t imposed due to ongoing talks with Russia and Ukraine: “It’s not wise to introduce new issues into these negotiations midstream.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 11:01 AM

-Ukraine agreed to unconditional ceasefire proposed by the US on March 11

-Russia did not agree

-Ukraine got 10% tariffs from the US

-Russia did not get tariffs from the US because it is “not appropriate” to tariff them mid-negotiations

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 11:07 AM

The Telegraph: Trump seeks a fast Ukraine peace deal, but Putin uses talks to win what his troops can’t. Zelenskyy resists yielding as Russia attacks, demanding concessions, while Kyiv faces US pressure to remove Zelenskyy.
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 1:00 PM

From The Telegraph:

In one week, he has unleashed a trade war, a Wall Street crash and the prospect of a global recession.

So it is easy to forget that Donald Trump still hopes to be remembered for something else: ending the three-year war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, another megalomaniac is also dreaming of his place in history by redrawing the map of Europe.

In his quest for unconditional surrender, Vladimir Putin has hurled everything in the Russian armoury at Kyiv, barring nuclear weapons.

Ukraine remains undefeated – but how long can this astonishing resistance continue? Above all, can Ukraine survive after the potential withdrawal of American support, and can Europe maintain their support while dealing with the economic fallout from tariffs?

According to the Kremlin propaganda, which has largely been adopted in parts of the Trump administration, the Russians enjoy a crushing superiority in Ukraine.

In his aim of recreating the Soviet Union, Putin deploys two kinds of weapon: the military hammer and economic sickle.

While Ukrainian troops are battered by the hammer blows of a war machine bristling with lethal technologies, civilian morale is cut off at the knees by economic warfare.

Raging inflation, falling GDP and collapsing living standards will, Putin hopes, force Kyiv to sue for peace.

Ever since its public pillorying of Volodymyr Zelensky, streamed live from the Oval Office, the Trump administration has been ratcheting up the pressure on Kyiv.

Last month, it emerged that the White House is demanding control of not only Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, but virtually all its natural resources, including its oil, gas, and nuclear industries.

While Putin makes no secret of his mission to turn Ukraine into a Russian vassal state, Trump apparently envisages the country as a wholly owned American subsidiary.

It is an unpalatable choice between two different kinds of humble pie – but if the Kremlin and the White House are determined to carve up Ukraine between them, who can stop them?

The chimera of a ceasefire

So far, Zelensky has refused to sign away his country’s economic sovereignty in return for nebulous promises from a US administration that would clearly be glad to see the Ukrainian president removed from office.

Nothing is certain since US politics became a branch of chaos theory and a vacancy arose for the role of leader of the free world.

As long as Zelensky remains at the helm in Kyiv, there will be no Ukrainian surrender, either to Moscow or to Washington.

But Putin calculates that he can exploit Trump’s need for international approval to win victories by diplomacy that his troops have failed to gain on the battlefield.

Hence, the “peace” talks that have now been under way for weeks in Saudi Arabia are seen in the Kremlin as a smokescreen, not a serious negotiation.

The foes do not even speak directly to each other, but only through intermediaries, mainly American. This enables the US delegation not only to control the flow of information but also to tip the balance in Moscow’s favour.

The chimera of a ceasefire has yet to materialise, partly because it means different things to the two antagonists. While Zelensky sees it as an unconditional cessation of hostilities, as a prelude to peace negotiations, Putin demands an ever-lengthening list of concessions in return for a truce.

The Russian dictator first gained Trump’s approval for the reasonable-sounding idea of a halt to attacks on power plants, although this proposal came only after Ukrainian drones and missiles had done serious damage to Russian oil refineries. Besides, Putin’s forces have yet to halt their relentless attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Next, Putin suggested a moratorium on naval conflict in the Black Sea, also endorsed by Trump. This idea clearly favoured the Russian fleet, which had lost a dozen warships and been forced to abandon its main Crimean base at Sebastopol.

The Ukrainians already had a sea corridor for their grain exports, but the Russians are eager to regain a measure of freedom for sanctions-busting trade.

Nevertheless, Kyiv agreed to both these flawed proposals as stepping stones to a more comprehensive ceasefire. Then Putin raised the stakes.

For the duration of the truce, he demanded a ban on all foreign arms supplies to Ukraine, meaning a freezing of the military status quo that would only apply to one side. Meanwhile, Russia would continue to import men and material from North Korea, Iran and elsewhere.

Why did Putin impose a condition that was so obviously unacceptable to Kyiv? The answer became clear when the next Russian demand emerged: the removal of Zelensky and his “Nazi” government, to be replaced by a caretaker administration under the auspices of the United Nations, followed in due course by elections.

Having painted Zelensky as the obstacle to peace, the logical next step for Putin was to demand that the West depose him.

This propaganda move fed into the mendacious narrative, already popular on the Maga (make America great again) wing of the Republican Party, that the Ukrainian president had behaved in a duplicitous manner over Hunter Biden and the Russia inquiry during Trump’s first term.

Playing America

Despite the incessant disparaging rhetoric from the administration, which has also demonstrated its willingness to halt financial and military aid to Ukraine, there is still strong support for Kyiv in the United States.

In fact, about two thirds of Americans have remained consistently in favour of supplying weapons since the full-scale invasion in 2022, according to recent polling. Moreover, senior commanders in the US military have given enthusiastic support to their Ukrainian counterparts.

Last month, The New York Times revealed that a secret Nato facility in Germany had been coordinating logistics and the selection of Russian targets with Ukrainian officers, using US spy satellites and under the command of a US general.

The precision with which Ukrainian forces have identified, damaged or destroyed major Russian bases (such as the raid on the Engels airfield two weeks ago) owes everything to allied, and especially American, cooperation.

Without various forms of high-tech Nato input, the Ukrainians would have struggled to resist the Russian onslaught for so long. Putin has sacrificed vast numbers of men and colossal quantities of equipment in a vain attempt to occupy the remaining parts of the oblasts in the Donbas region that he claims to have annexed.

His aim is to come to the negotiating table in Riyadh with a fait accompli in order to convince the US that these are indeed “Russian” provinces.

On the ground, this has manifestly not happened, but there are many inside the Trump camp who believe that the Russian claims are legitimate. These could include Steve Witkoff, the president’s golf partner and chief negotiator.

“There’s a sensibility in Russia that Ukraine is a false country. That they just patched together, in this sort of mosaic, these regions,” he recently told Tucker Carlson, the media personality who has made sympathetic comments about Putin. “That’s the root cause, in my opinion, of this war.”

The Kremlin is not, however, relying on pro-Russian sentiment to keep the Trump administration sweet, so much as cold, transactional self-interest.

In the past week, the man described by the late Alexei Navalny’s anti-corruption organisation as Putin’s “shadow foreign minister” has been dispatched to Washington. Kirill Dmitriev is exactly the kind of Stanford and Harvard-educated, smooth-talking oligarch who knows how to approach Trump and his billionaire-heavy entourage.

Dmitriev’s mission is to persuade the president that Zelensky, not Putin, is the obstacle to peace.

The mere fact that Dmitriev can fly into Washington is a diplomatic coup for Moscow: under Biden, senior Russian officials and businessmen were sanctioned, especially if they were close allies of Putin. Now the emissaries of the evil emperor are to be granted privileged access, perhaps even to the Oval Office. The symbolism is all too clear: Putin’s men are admitted to the inner sanctum from which Zelensky was ejected.

As of the current state of play, the question now is whether Russia has “all the cards”, as Trump himself likes to say, or whether the Ukrainians are more resilient than might appear at first sight.

Throwing Ukraine to the bear

There are certainly plenty of Trump acolytes, such as the Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, who want the US to focus primarily on containing China. Putin, they argue, might be tempted by lucrative deals with the US to abandon his alliance with Xi Jinping.

Yet throwing Ukraine to the Russian bear would send the message to Beijing that Taiwan cannot rely on Trump as an ally. Across the narrow straits that separate the jewel of the global semiconductor industry from the mainland, the Chinese People’s Army is gearing up for a “special operation” of its own.

If the fate of Taiwan is – as the late Donald Rumsfeld might say – a known unknown, the attitude of the Trump administration to Ukraine is an unknown unknown. The president could yet swing either way. Last week, he let it be known that he was “p—-d off” with Putin’s foot-dragging on a ceasefire.

Still, it is more likely than not that Ukraine will find itself facing an ultimatum: either sign a Trump-brokered peace deal dictated by Putin or lose US intelligence and logistical support permanently.

How would the map of Ukraine change after such a one-sided ceasefire? Putin claims five provinces: Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The last three are still only partially occupied by the Russians.

Agreeing to withdraw Ukrainian forces from these regions would increase the Russian-occupied area from about 20pc to roughly 25pc of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. That might sound like a sacrifice worth making to stop the slaughter, though it would inevitably deprive Kyiv of yet more economic resources and its fortified front lines.

But such a deal would also mean evacuating millions of civilians. After the well-documented murder, torture and abduction of tens of thousands in Bucha, Mariupol and elsewhere, it is unthinkable that Zelensky would abandon his people to Putin’s paramilitaries and secret police. So a war-torn, impoverished country would have to absorb a huge influx of refugees.

Worse, a ceasefire on Putin’s terms would crush Ukrainian morale. Some of the cities that would be lost, including Kherson itself, have already been liberated from the Russians, often at great cost.

Surrendering vast tracts of homeland without a fight would leave the Ukrainians dispirited. In an army that feels betrayed, defeatism spreads like wildfire. Zelensky’s fall would be only a matter of time – followed by the dismemberment of his nation.

So a ceasefire on Putin’s terms would be a Carthaginian peace – and a prelude to the next stage of his plan to resurrect the Soviet Russian empire. Poland and Lithuania fear a Russian bid to march into the “Suwalki Gap” to establish a land corridor from Belarus to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. In such a contingency, the Baltic states would be cut off from the rest of Europe.

While the accession of Sweden and Finland has turned the Baltic Sea into a Nato lake, the Russians could test the allies’ readiness to abide by their treaty obligations.

Does Trump care enough about Riga or Warsaw to risk retaliation against their namesakes in New York State or Indiana? True, the president seems partial to the Poles, but their 2017 proposal for a US base (“Fort Trump”) near their eastern border remains just that – a proposal.

So what about Europe and the “coalition of the willing”? So far, there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity but no concrete plan to rescue Ukraine from its nightmarish predicament. European policymakers are also now tasked with confronting the issue of Ukraine alongside dealing with Trump’s trade war, which risks dragging countries across the world into recession.

Much more at the link.

When you work with lengthy, in-depth materials from countries like the Central African Republic, you quickly see a desperate central government that essentially gives up control over natural resources like diamonds, gold, and timber – to foreign states and entities in order to maintain power

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 5:17 PM

This setup doesn’t create real security – it produces isolated pockets of safety around production sites, while the rest of the country remains dangerous, unstable, and chaotic – a battleground where local rebels and foreign powers compete to exploit resources.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 5:17 PM

The US mineral deal to Ukraine, though presented in a more polished and “civilized” form, is fundamentally no different from what happens in some African countries. It rarely, if ever, brings genuine long-term stability.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 5:17 PM

Back to Ukraine.

⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA – APR 6, 2025

■ Engagements & casualties slightly below the 7-day average
■ Equipment losses stay above average; good armor & artillery losses
■ 🇺🇦 strikes stay above average while 🇷🇺 are close to it

See dashboard for further data

📈 lookerstudio.google.com/s/i6arAqmKNgc

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— Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 4:42 AM

This is what an assault on armored vehicle looks like in conditions where drones completely control the airspace. Video of the attack attempt by Russian BMP-2, filmed by the 38th Brigade of Ukraine. t.me/argus38/532

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 10:05 AM

Ukrainian fighters from the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade shared footage of downing a Russian Shahed drone using a Soviet-era 57mm S-60 anti-aircraft gun.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 11:30 AM

🐈‍⬛Just a creative billboard of the 3rd Assault Brigade of Ukraine.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 8:10 AM

The Ukrainian Armed Forces showcased German “HF-1” AI strike drones. Per BILD, over 1,000 were delivered by April. With AI targeting, they fly 100 km—though troops favor 45-50 km—for up to an hour.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 3:32 AM

Kryvyi Rih:

❗️UPD The death toll from a russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih has risen to 20. A 57-year-old man died of his wounds in hospital. Over 70 people were injured, with 17 of them in critical condition, including two children.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM

People bring toys and flowers to a bombed-out playground in Kryvyi Rih, where 18 people, including 9 children, were killed by a russian missile.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 7:57 AM

Kyiv:

Russian propaganda continues to hit new lows: Russian forces claimed to target Ukraine’s central artillery base and defense industry, but in reality, they destroyed an office building in Kyiv housing Ukrainian and state international broadcasters.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) April 6, 2025 at 6:59 AM

Donetsk:

Shakhtar Stadium in Donetsk after 11 years of so-called “liberation” by Russian militants. The “Russian world” in full display—Donetsk feels the decay of occupation.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 6, 2025 at 11:34 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

Some big, fluffy cats being treated in the Hachiko Vet Van 🚐 today! 30 cats needed help, so the team is working as fast as it can in the frontline city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. They are grateful for your continued support! 🙏 hachikofoundation.org

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) March 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM

Open thread!