Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Every decision we make has lots of baggage with it, known or unknown.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

The willow is too close to the house.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Books are my comfort food!

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

White supremacy is terrorism.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

The real work of an opposition party is to hold the people in power accountable.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Let me file that under fuck it.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

You are here: Home / 2025 Activism / Follow the ball under the cup (Tariff edition)

Follow the ball under the cup (Tariff edition)

by | 103 Comments

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As of a few minutes ago, the US will be levying an import weighed tariff of over 25% on imports.  It is 125% on Chinese imports, 25% on most Canadian and Mexican imports, 10% on most of the rest of the world, and 0% on Russia, Belorussian and North Korea products.

The tariff that didn’t apply to Canada, but seemed for a bit that it might apply to Canada, will not, in fact, apply to Canada.

The other tariffs remain.

[image or embed]

— Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) April 9, 2025 at 3:58 PM

China, Mexico and Canada are the US largest trade partners. I am not a logistics manager, but that is disruptive as hell.

In fact, with respect to inflation, forecast is just as bad today (post-Trump/Ackman victory lap) as yesterday, due to new China announcement.
Per Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights, inflation effects from (even) higher tariffs on China roughly offset the drop to “only” 10% tariffs everywhere else.

[image or embed]

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 9, 2025 at 4:34 PM

Keep an eye on the net and not the details.

Reader Interactions

103Comments

  1. 1.

    Martin

    If you’ve got some popcorn without a reason to eat it, here you go.

    In her prepared remarks, which will be delivered at a Senate subcommittee on crime and counterterrorism hearing this afternoon, Wynn-Williams accused Meta of working “hand in glove” with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). That partnership allegedly included efforts to “construct and test custom-built censorship tools that silenced and censored their critics” as well as provide the CCP with “access to Meta user data—including that of Americans.”

  3. 3.

    Steve LaBonne

    I am more convinced than ever that someone in Trump’s inner circle is running a pump and dump scheme and manipulating the clueless orange idiot to that end.

  4. 4.

    Leto

    Absolute hell of a way to run our country, at the whim of a dictatorial dipshit. Good job, Republicans and conservatives.

  8. 8.

    danielx

    But don’t you dare say that Trump panicked and took his tariff ball and ran home. Don’t you dare say that!

    Trump is the toughest and most no-nonsense president in American history, and there’s no way world leaders will now look at him as a paper tiger who appears to have no clue what he’s doing.

    I am beginning to believe FFOTUS doesn’t have a fucking clue, or coherent thoughts at all. There’s an occasional soggy collision between wandering nerve impulses, but that’s it.

  9. 9.

    Elizabelle

    @Mike Mundy:  Yep.

    Time to bring out the guillotines.  And this has made me sad the US is not a parliamentary system, with short elections and the ability to toss the country’s leader faster than a head of lettuce.

    The monsters have gamed the system and are doing their bustout.

  10. 10.

    Baud

    All those bros with their Nancy Pelosi insider trading jokes are crying into their portfolio today.

  11. 11.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    Meanwhile, in the House….

     

    At least a dozen House Republicans are considering signing onto Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) bill to restrict the White House’s ability to impose tariffs unilaterally, Axios has learned.

    Why it matters: It’s a significant break with President Trump, who has threatened to veto the bill should it pass Congress.

    Bacon told Axios that two Republicans — Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) — and two Democrats have signed on to the bill as co-sponsors.

  12. 12.

    RaflW

    No matter what the tariffs, the US is now a totally unreliable trade partner. I don’t know how any importer knows what to do, nor what any manufacturer with inputs from abroad (or wanting to sell abroad). IOW, chaos is bad for planning, and a lack of planning is bad for business.

    It’s just a roiling shitshow. I need to fulfill some charitable pledges and I have no idea when to even think about selling shares or making a gift from a family fund we have. It’s so maddening.

    Meanwhile the courts are a very mixed bag on what is happening to immigration law(lessness), improper or possibly illegal firings (magically becoming legal because some courts no longer view laws as particularly important to bother enforcing).

    And the press is mostly interesting in political score-keeping, not on what all the terrible downstream effects are going to be. Do newsers thing we don’t care much that children’s cancer research is shelved? That measles is out of control in TX and other places? WTF!

    eta: Longer term, the US no longer being the reserve currency or the hegemon of (small ‘L’) liberal economics might be good. But there’s huge risk during the transition to … something else.

  13. 13.

    SW

    Well it’s been fun watching the Wall St Wankers shit their pants but the true effects of this Bush league excuse for a trade policy will make their way to the real economy and there is no plan besides tax cuts and bashing the Fed to to deal with them.

  15. 15.

    RaflW

    @Chetan Murthy: Can’t really argue with that. Anyone on the globe who can see us go from GWB to Obama to Trump to Biden to Trump knows that our electorate is recklessly fickle. We can only accept stability and common sense about 40% of the time.

  21. 21.

    Tenar Arha

    Seriously I’m all WTF did the shmendrik actually do this afternoon? Is it there’s tariffs on everything, but less, yet more on China? Like whut?

    I feel as if dozens of his troll people got him to agree to stop being a schmuck and then they all went to their pet reporters and told them dozens of different things, but somehow the market still thinks something happened that was good. Like the fundamental uncertainty is STILL there!

  22. 22.

    NaijaGal

    @Tenar Arha: ​
      Conditioned us to accept a less drastic version of his idiotic, ego-driven tariffs as somewhat reasonable/an improvement.

  23. 23.

    Trollhattan

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    Don’t they realize this means they do not pass The Loyalty Test®? Bondi and Noem will corner them, tune them up with bats for a half hour then put them on a mil transport to…let’s say Gitmo.

  24. 24.

    Jay

    As of right now, the White House hasn’t said which 75 countries will see the tariffs paused, probably because they still need to make ChatGPT tell them, or maybe in hopes that a few countries may actually call and ask if it’s too late to be included, which it won’t be! Also, the universal 10 percent tariff Trump places on all imports will remain in place for all countries, including the ones we have no trade with, like those penguin-ruled islands.

    And now all is well again, and everyone loves Donald Trump again, at least until he pulls some other stupid shit later tonight.

    https://www.wonkette.com/p/in-shocking-move-nah-nobodys-shocked

  25. 25.

    Martin

    @AnonPhenom: Nobody will do anything. If there’s still anyone alive at the SEC, they’re not going to investigate fearing uncovering one of Trumps kids.

  26. 26.

    pluky

    Stock market shenanigans aside, my eye is on the next Treasury auctions, in particular the 3-year and 10-year notes scheduled for May 5-6th. If demand for these is down, the implication for confidence in US government finance is not good.

  28. 28.

    Martin

    @Baud: Democrats introduced the bill and it failed because Democrats opposed it. We don’t have clean hands on this one.

  30. 30.

    realbtl

    From model railroads to rc planes boats and cars to static models for kids and adults there are going to be a shit ton of pissed hobbyists pretty soon.

  33. 33.

    AnonPhenom

    @Martin:

    I don’t expect the authorities will do anything, but if anyone here is thinking of making any financial decisions it helps to know there’s an aspect of market manipulation going on.

    Don’t buy the dips, sell the rips.

  34. 34.

    PsiFighter37

    @pluky: There were auctions for those this week. The 3 year went terribly; the 10 year today went well (before the tariff headlines). All it will be indicative of is inflation expectations IMO, and that will need to be borne out by multiple months of data. But the stage is set for chronically higher yields, IMO, but from markets are going to be risk-on at this point. Their takeaway is the Trump is a chicken who will not hold to the most punitive measures he is implementing (potentially outside of China, but I bet Xi Jinping will send him a big, beautiful letter, or something, and then their tariff rate comes down too).

  35. 35.

    karen gail

    @schrodingers_cat: He already has; rest of world has known or should have known that US changes directions with every major election. Seems that China was one of the few or maybe the only country that planned to make sure that no matter what person Oval Office did they would be able to keep going without US.

  36. 36.

    karen gail

    So now Trump is going after whistleblowers, saying that one critic is “guilty of treason.”

    So it has begun, be critical of Trump, be charged with treason.

  37. 37.

    PsiFighter37

    @karen gail: I don’t think that is necessarily the issue, as the Chinese know there will be plenty of hardship in a true trade war / decoupling with the US. But the cultural mindset is to view things on a far longer timeline than the US does, and with a history of dynasties that last centuries as the backdrop, the CCP – having been in power for 75 years or so – feels that they have plenty of rope to sort out any situation they find themselves in. In fact, the biggest opportunity they spy is that if the US truly does decouple from our traditional allies in Western Europe, they will find a willing and ready partner in Europe economically.

  39. 39.

    Princess

    @danielx: It was particularly gross to have to listen to Leavitt and Bessant talking this afternoon about how Trump is the bestest negotiator eeeeeever, and his brilliant toughness caused the nations of the world to grovel to him and won him a fantastic deal in which he lowered tariffs in exchange for…nothing. Leavitt has no better prospects than to lie for Trump but Bessant certainly knows better and has enough mony and influence he could have a real job doing useful things.

    Anyway, the tariffs on the US’s biggest trading partners are still massive and will cause as much damage to the US as the reciprocal tariffs he has postponed on the rest of the world.

  40. 40.

    The Audacity of Krope

    @Baud: All those bros with their Nancy Pelosi insider trading jokes are crying into their portfolio today.

    Not me. Pelosi shouldn’t be standing up for insider trading. And I ain’t got a portfolio, I don’t even do outsider trading.

  44. 44.

    Jay

    Arnaud Bertrand
    @RnaudBertrand
    20h
    This is batshit insane, no other way to call it.

    We now have the first attempt by the White House—specifically by Steve Miran, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers—to justify the tariffs based on economic “theory”, and it’s without a doubt the most dishonest piece of economic reading that’s I’ve ever had the misfortune to lay my eyes upon.

    The gist of Miran’s argument is to reposition the global reserve currency status of the dollar not as an exorbitant privilege (as erstwhile French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing once characterized it), but as somehow a “burden” that the rest of the world needs to compensate the US for bearing.

    As Miran explains it, having the dollar as a reserve currency “has caused persistent currency distortions and contributed, along with other countries’ unfair barriers to trade, to unsustainable trade deficits” which “have decimated our manufacturing sector.”

    So he wants to give up the reserve currency status of the dollar, right? Wrong. He wants to have it both ways.

    He says that America’s “financial dominance cannot be taken for granted; and the Trump Administration is determined to preserve [it]” but this same financial dominance “comes at a cost” and “other nations” need to pay for it.

    And he means this literally. He made a list of what exactly he means by “burden sharing” and one of the forms it can take is countries “simply writ[ing] checks to Treasury that help us finance global public goods.”

    Let’s pause a moment here to contemplate the sheer insanity of this: the U.S. is literally suggesting that countries should mail checks to the US Treasury as tribute for the ‘privilege’ of maintaining the dollar as a global reserve currency, when it is this very reserve status of the dollar that is the cornerstone of US power.

    It’s the equivalent of Samson asking everyone to pay him to keep his hair.

    Because that’s what Miran is conveniently not mentioning in his text. The reason Giscard d’Estaing called it an “exorbitant privilege” is that it allows the U.S. to quite literally have its way of life subsidized by the rest of the world.

    Miran (and Trump) complain about the trade deficits, but they are the very manifestation of this subsidization: countries normally cannot run a permanent trade deficit because they’d one day face a balance of payments crisis.

    It’s like a private individual: you cannot indefinitely buy more from others than what you yourself earn. At some point you’ll have to pay up. Unless, that is, you’re the issuer of the currency everyone uses, in which case the normal rules of economic gravity are suspended.

    While other nations must balance their books eventually, the dollar’s reserve status gives America the unique ability to consume more than it produces perpetually, with the world eagerly accepting dollars that cost nothing to create in exchange for real goods and services. That’s not a “burden”, it very much is an “exorbitant privilege”.

    So yes, sure, because America can effectively buy most of what it needs from the rest of the world for “free” (by printing dollars), this situation doesn’t exactly create incentives to do the hard work of manufacturing goods domestically. But framing this as other countries taking advantage of America rather than America taking advantage of its currency dominance is an astonishing inversion of reality.

    And even more astonishing is Miran’s ask that countries now compensate the U.S. for this. Some people mention that it’s like asking vassals for tribute but it’s actually even worse than this. The tribute is already embedded in the global reserve currency status of the dollar: other countries work hard for the U.S. while they can just issue IOUs that never come due.

    What Miran is thus proposing is effectively demanding vassals make payments for the privilege of already making payments—a double tribute system where countries first subsidize American living standards by accepting dollars as reserves, and then must pay an additional fee for the ‘burden’ this supposedly places on the US.

    Miran’s piece is replete with other complete inversions of reality. For instance, he now blames China for the 2008 crash because “their holdings of U.S. mortgage debt helped fuel the housing bubble, forcing hundreds of billions of dollars of credit into the housing sector without regard as to whether the investments made sense.”

    Anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of the 2008 financial crisis would have their breath taken away by such brazen revisionism. Not only is the crisis universally known to have been caused by US regulatory failures and the reckless securitization of subprime mortgages by Wall Street firms, but China in this instance literally saved U.S. markets from complete meltdown after Hank Paulson personally appealed to Beijing to continue purchasing US Treasury bonds during the height of the crisis, which they did.

    To now blame them for the very crisis they helped mitigate and played no part in creating is beyond dishonest—it’s gaslighting on a geopolitical scale.

    All in all, it’s clear what the US is trying to achieve here, they effectively want to have their cake and eat it. They want to keep the privilege and want the rest of the world to pay for the downsides that come with it.

    Which means we’re truly at a crossroad in history where nations must make an immensely consequential choice: acquiesce to this insane double tribute system or stand against it. There are very few precedents in world history for such a nakedly exploitative power play, but history is very clear on two things: submitting to extortion only invites more of it, and collective resistance is the only effective response.

    Apr 9, 2025 · 2:58 AM UTC

    https://nitter.poast.org/RnaudBertrand/status/1909802994717372516#m

  45. 45.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Jay:

    These people are absolutely out of their minds

    Oh, and a lot of the replies to that tweet are incredibly stupid, but not as many as I thought given it’s X (Twitter). Quite a lot of push back to them in fact

  46. 46.

    different-church-lady

    @Jay:

    All in all, it’s clear what the US is trying to achieve here, they effectively want to have their cake and eat it. They want to keep the privilege and want the rest of the world to pay for the downsides that come with it.

    Jeese, that doesn’t sound very Trumpian at all.

  48. 48.

    karen gail

    @PsiFighter37: You have to give any country or nation that has nearly 5.000 years of recorded experience credit for knowing how to look at things in the long run.

  50. 50.

    Martin

    @Kelly: Yeah, they forgot to regulate a number of fisheries this spring because of the firings so loads got overfished.

  51. 51.

    Jay

    @different-church-lady:

    With the DJTdiot Cabinet, Advisors, “Brain Trust”, it is clear that for DJTdiot it’s all “clowns to the right of me, jokers to the left of me,”.

    The TechBro’s are all Yarvinites, the MOTU are acolytes of the imaginary Ron Vera, and none of them have a clue how the World actually works.

    If you asked any of them to stand out in the rain, with their mouth open and head tilted back, they would all drown.

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: Wynn-Williams is describing Facebook‘s efforts to appease the CPC regime in the mid- to late ’10s, when Zuckerberg was trying hard to reenter the PRC market. Nothing they did in pursuit of that goal is surprising for Big Tech.

    Around ’19, after it became clear that the PRC government is not interested in letting Facebook in, at least not w/o onerous censorship requirements & restrictions that would prevent it from dominating the market (& signs that it would not be able to complete w/ WeChat, anyway), Zuckerberg pivoted to being a China Hawk, & was one of the motivating forces behind the attempt to ban TikTok.

  55. 55.

    Melancholy Jaques

    As of a few minutes ago

    This is going to be the key phrase in all news about tariffs.

  57. 57.

    Jackie

    Anyone really surprised?

    “As Tulsi Gabbard completed her transformation from a Hawaii Democratic politician to a MAGA surrogate last year, she put down stakes in a far redder state. Gabbard and her husband bought a home outside of Austin and declared under oath last June that they were ‘residents of the State of Texas,’” CNN reports.

    “But a few months later, Gabbard voted in the 2024 general election back in Hawaii.”

    *snip*

    Representatives for Gabbard said she never intended to abandon her longtime Hawaii residency, despite signing the sworn declaration calling herself a Texas resident.

    “Director Gabbard was, is, and intends to remain a Hawaii resident,” Gabbard’s lawyers, Jesse Binnall and Jason Greaves, wrote in a cease-and-desist letter sent to CNN prior to this article’s publication. “That is where she lives, pays taxes, and, of course, votes.”

    Under Hawaii voting regulations, when voters have a homeowner’s tax exemption, that home is presumed to be their residence for election purposes.

    Gabbard’s attorneys said she applied for a homestead tax exemption, which Texas law only allows on a principal residence, because she “took the advice of local officials” who told her it was required to shield her address from public view. Her office said she was facing a significant security threat.

    Gabbard’s representatives did not respond to questions about why she separately swore under oath that she was a Texas resident if she considered herself to still live in Hawaii, and did not provide a comment from her after repeated requests.

    Gabbard’s apparently not the most intelligent Director of National Intelligence.

  61. 61.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Arnaud Bertrand is a very useful but also problematic source. He has very heterodox views, & deeply skeptical of European & American politics (be they liberal, centrist, conservative, reactionary). He is very good at cutting through the BS in Western mainstream discourse, as well as sharing the reality of life in the PRC.

    OTOH, he is very pro-CPC regime, presents all developments in the PRC in the most positive light possible, & almost never criticizes the PRC government in his posts. He’s skepticism of Western mainstream views has also led him to take stances that could be considered apologia for Putin, Xi & other authoritarians. He is also a strong believer in Traditional Chinese Medicine, & has built a business around it, so keep that in mind.

    So, IMHO worth following (& I do on X), but needs to be consumed very critically. I would prefer less problematic sources, but it is actually surprisingly difficult to find sources of opinion & analysis related to the PRC that do not suffer from extraordinary bias or ignorance, or both.

    I do agree w/ the post you shared.

  63. 63.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Jay:

    I hate that woman so much

    ETA:

    By the way, that NDP member in your MEP seat still the favorite to win?

  64. 64.

    Anyway

    The Maggots in the break room at work are all in awe of how Cheetolini has pwned China — don’t know what they are smoking.  They are certain China needs the US market and cannot survive without it. They read all kinds of wingnutty material, don’t know what the source of this piece of gibberish was. Mix of older white guys and tech bros — some of them Indian. They are still in the gloating stage — and feel they’ll come out ahead. Marked contrast from the views here. Whiplash for me hearing them.

  65. 65.

    NaijaGal

    @Jay: It’s Ron Vara (not Vera) since the “expert” is just an anagram of Navarro’s last name.

    He must have loved Trump’s John Barron pseudonym.

  66. 66.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Sadly, we have to go to “alt-sources” for any kind of deep dives into the bullshit being offered, as the FTMSM is still just sanewashing all this crap flooding the zone.

    The “usual suspects” like Paul Krugman, Musk Watch etc are just buried trying to sanely cover some of the BS.

    Peter Navarro built an entire lucrative career off the imaginary Economist Ron Vara and his made up BS. Something that would sink any Econ student, but he got and is still getting away with it. Nobody in the TFMSM or anybody ever asked him, “Is Ron Vara in the room with us right now, Peter?”.

  67. 67.

    Jackie

    @Martin: Of course she’s now a Republican – so she most likely won’t be imprisoned for five years for voting illegally – unlike the Texan Hispanic woman who mistakenly thought she was eligible to vote. Her sin was voting as a Democrat.

  68. 68.

    Jay

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Yup. It helps that the existing NDP MP’s are backing the Liberals, and the provincial Con’s are sabotaging Pierre. Also, so far, the Con’s have shed 4 candidates so far, over social media posts exposing how Nazi they are.

  69. 69.

    lowtechcyclist

    Wonder if investors will figure out they were pwned today with the tariff ‘pause’ news, and if so, what the markets will look like tomorrow.

  70. 70.

    p.a.

     

    @Jay: My fbook mostly follows local businesses, food etc but the algorithm provides news links.  Most are center, center-left US & outside.  Today almost all the framing is “tRump Caves” “tRump Backs Down” “Markets Force US To Stand Down on Tariffs”👍🏻. Even the straight news, middle of the road sources.  Many local stations/papers.

  71. 71.

    Jay

    @p.a.:

    Thing is, it wasn’t a “stand down”. Everybody* but China got 10% on top of existing tariff’s. So BC Softwood is now at 35%, so the cost of a new 3BDR home in the US just went up another $55,000 USD.

    *Except for ruZZia, Belarus and North Korea.

  72. 72.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @karen gail: This is the consequence of Trump 45 initiating the trade & tech wars w/ the PRC, & Biden somewhat surprisingly continuing the trade war & massive escalating the tech wars. The CPC leadership was caught off guard & was on the back foot in 2018. However, the PRC has had nearly 8 years to adjust to the new reality, prepare for worst possible contingencies, & PRC industries emerged out of the COVID-19 pandemic much stronger & more technologically advanced. Most Westerners have not updated their priors on the PRC from before the pandemic, & MAGA hasn’t updated their priors from before the GFC.

    For example, exported accounted for nearly 40% of PRC GDP pre-GFC, & net exports (trade surplus) nearly 10%. The PRC economy really was export dependent then. The GFC collapsed export demand, & the PRC had to pivot to internal demand, & went on a massive binge on infrastructure & real estate investment. Now, it is pivoting from real estate to advanced manufacturing. Export is now only 20% of PRC GDP (below global average), and net exports 4-5% (that is after a surge through the pandemic).

    The Finance Brained people around Trump thinks the country printing money has the advantage over the country making the goods. The PRC’s manufacturing output is nearly as large as the U.S.+EU combined, or larger than G7 combined. Same w/ manufacturing value added.

    Who has greater leverage? The drug addict or the drug cartel?

  73. 73.

    Jay

    @Anyway:

    Hass Industries, which donated $800,000 to DJTdiot’s campaign has halted hiring, overtime and looking at layoffs.

    Guess what, they make CNC machines.

     

    Their market is mostly China.

  74. 74.

    Jackie

    Punchbowl News: “House Republican leaders are vowing to go to the floor this evening to try to pass the House-Senate compromise budget resolution.”

    Updated to:

    Johnson pulled the vote Wednesday night after 80 minutes when it was apparent there weren’t the votes to pass it. Johnson said they could try again as early as tomorrow.

  76. 76.

    sab

    i just came home today, expecting I was done with tax season but instead they need me tomorrow. Lovely people but I want to stay home.

    I am tired and  my dog misses me. Also too some of the cats.

  77. 77.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: The Germans, the Japanese, the Swiss & the Taiwanese will be happy to fill the gap, & domestic vendors are catching up fast. By the time Haas regains access to the PRC market, there may not be any demand for its products, anymore.

  78. 78.

    Jay

    @lowtechcyclist:

    The old saying goes, “The Stock Market can remain insane, much longer than you can stay solvent”.

    And it is much worse with meme stocks existing and algo trading.

  79. 79.

    lowtechcyclist

    @NaijaGal:

    Congress starts a 2-week recess on Friday, so if they can’t pass it tomorrow, any deal has plenty of time to fall apart. Here’s hoping.

  80. 80.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    When I worked at Dynapro, we used to spit on the floor every time somebody mentioned Siemens or SMC.

    Allen Bradley was our key customer, the Industrial Automation Division of Rockwell International.

  81. 81.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Jay:

    Since my wife and I pulled everything out of the market over the winter, I’m just an interested spectator at this point.

    Of course, the Mango Madman could default on Treasuries, in which case we’re screwed, but if he does that, pretty much everyone is.

  82. 82.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anyway: The “For You” page on my X feed is overflowing w/ such views, the “Following” page, not so much. It’s easy to become swayed if one is drowning in the BS.

  83. 83.

    Jay

    @lowtechcyclist:

    Yeah, that and the Dollar are next.

    Gold’s up.

    So are rice and dried beans. Those you can eat, or sell.

    When is DJTdiot and DOGEshit going to “investigate” Fort Knox?

    Before or after his yuuge Parade?

  84. 84.

    artem1s

    Anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of the 2008 financial crisis would have their breath taken away by such brazen revisionism.

    obviously not familiar with the GOP’s constant revisionism to cover up their economic malfeasance.  Blaming everyone else, no matter how removed they are from the scene of the crime, rather than pulling up their bootstraps and being the party of personal responsibility, is a time honored tradition with ‘fiscally conservative’ Republicans.

  87. 87.

    YY_Sima Qian

    If anyone’s is interested in how the PRC government views the escalated trade war, & where the PRC’s leverage points might be, it has published a White Paper on the Sino-us economic relations, helpfully in English (clearly intended for US & international audiences):

    Full text: China’s Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic and Trade Relations
    Xinhua | April 9, 2025

    Glenn Luk has a helpful running summary:

    Glenn@GlennLuk
    So I guess China’s response to the April 9th deadline was this white paper, published just a few minutes ago.

  88. 88.

    Geminid

    @Jackie: Capitol Hill reporter Jaime Dupree has been covering Johnson’s efforts on Twitter and BlueSky. At 8:05 pm he posted:

    Speaker Johnson: No budget vote tonight.

    Earlier, at 6:53 pm:

    GOP holdouts going to meet now with Speaker Johnson just off the House floor.

    In between, Dupree made this evergreen post at 7:23:

    30 minutes now. Door just opened and Chip Roy was talking.

    A motion to approve the rule putting the bill on the floor barely passed late afternoon. The vote was 206-215, with three Republicans voting “Nay.”

  89. 89.

    karen gail

    @YY_Sima Qian: Personally, I don’t think that most people have a clue about China; they “see” the large cities and think that countryside is much like US. (Not that these idiots have any clue about US countryside, since when interviewing people from country the media either ends up at some diner or at a massive farm.) I expect the billionaires that make up Trumps circle only see the wealthy parts of the big cities.

  90. 90.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Petty much this w/ half of the country:

    Evan A. Feigenbaum@EvanFeigenbaum
    Big tariffs on everyone, even Vanuatu. “Genius! 4D chess! Art of the deal!” … Okay, maybe no big tariffs on everyone, only China. “Genius! 4D chess! Art of the deal!” … When he makes a (bad) deal with China. “Genius! 4D chess! Art of the deal!” This is zealotry, not strategy.

  91. 91.

    karen gail

    @Jay: Sadly, if the US is going to restart manufacturing they are going to need CNC machines as well as those who know how to program and troubleshoot machines.

    A CNC machine is one of the foundational needs of a good machine shop; ex BIL makes big bucks as one of the programmers/operators of CNC machine. He is forever training someone to do his job only for another shop to snatch that person up with offers of bigger paycheck.

  93. 93.

    YY_Sima Qian

    A simple calculation that illustrates who stands to lose how much in economic value added from the global trade war:

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb@nntaleb
    For a good sold in the US for $100, ~$12 go to China (base for tarrif). The rest, $88 for the design + shipping + wholesale + retail + branding, etc. go to US taxpayers! If demand for it drops by 50%, China loses $6 and US agents more than $44, that is 7x more contraction.

    The US importer of the good sourced from the PRC will be paying US$ 27 (after the 125% tariff), & the good will now retail for > US$115.

    Of course, realistically there are a couple of different scenario that will play out. The same good could be sourced from Vietnam for US$14 (US$15.4 after the 10% tariff) & sell in the US for > US$103.4. Alternatively, the good could be exported from the PRC to Vietnam for US$12, rerouted to the US w/ a US$0.5 transaction fee, imported into the US for US$13.75 (after 10% tariff), & retail for > US$101.75, because production outside of the PRC cannot ramp up so quickly.

    Even more realistically, US brands & retailers will take the opportunity to jack up prices to US$115 anyway, & take in even more profit. Even if overall demand drops, the corporations make more money. So the only people who will lose are the US consumers.

    The problem is that the tariffs are now so broad, prohibitively high for by far the biggest manufacturing economy in the world (which has nearly monopoly in a number sectors), & 10% on everywhere else, the price inflation will add up & crimp consumer demand. The US economy relies upon consumer demand. The uncertainly will also deter any kind of actual investment in domestic production.

  94. 94.

    karen gail

    @Jay: Lee makes really, really good money and company has matching program for his retirement. Not only that he has a boss that shares bonuses; since he runs the CNC department, he has pocketed some big bonuses. Ex worked for that boss for a time and at the annual Christmas party bonuses were handed out to share profits from the year. The good part was that I didn’t have to figure out how much of that bonus had to be taxed since the bonus was cut same as payroll check.

  96. 96.

    Jay

    @karen gail:

    Good for him.

    Bad for the Company that the operators he trains get poached.

    A). they are underpaid. Other wise they would stay.

    B). they are moving to a company that won’t train them.

    It is what it is.

  97. 97.

    Timill

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The US importer of the good sourced from the PRC will be paying US$ 27 (after the 125% tariff), & the good will now retail for > US$115.

    No, no. The US importer still pays $12, but the PRC pays DJT $15 personally, and the good is still $100 in the shops.

    Or so DJT says, and he’s never wrong ;-)

  98. 98.

    karen gail

    @Jay: Yeah, Lee likes training; I once suggested that he apply to teach at tech college. He prefers the one-on-one training and tailors the training to the apprentice; he also enjoys the fact that he can take off to go big game hunting and know that his department is in good hands.

  99. 99.

    Jay

    The FTMSM coverage in the US is funny as hell.

    They cover the import tariff’s some what, they ignore counter vailing export tariff’s.

    Had a job interview today. Was interesting, sadly just HR, so no real “expert” input.

    Purchasing position. Use a lot of steel and aluminum.

    Pointed out, basically not my first rodeo, 8th recession, 4th trade war, and Covid.

    Pointed out I could get their supply chain 100% tariff free in 6 months time.

    Got a call back for Friday, Zoom meeting with people who actually know stuff.

    We see how it goes.

  100. 100.

    Jackie

    @Geminid: This is Johnson’s new methodology. Dems need to understand this! This is what, the second time he’s successfully pulled this stunt? Grrrr

  101. 101.

    Jay

    @karen gail:

    I liked training.

    I did not have the cushion of having my departments and staff in good hands if I was not there.

    I spent almost 15 years, no vacations, no time off, weekends at best.

    Tis me, when I worked at the Orange, in theory my job was to fix tools. Nope, just a retail grunt, fixing tools in my spare time.

    Realized during Covid, that training everybody else, who had no clues on tools, how to teach customers not to destroy tools, and how to recognize when a returned tool was toast, made my job less of a horror.

    Some did, some didn’t.

    Retail.

    Other than Fahad, waste of my time and effort.

    Anyhow,………………………………………………….

  102. 102.

    Geminid

    @Jackie: I think House Democrats know what Johnson is up to, but under the circumstances all they can do is hold their caucus together, which they’ve done so far on critical votes.

    I wouldn’t neccesarily call this a stunt, though. Johnson wanted to pass the bill tonight. Now he has to enlist Trump, and others like Susie Wiles and J.D. Vance to use some combination of carrots and sticks upon the several holdouts.

    I think Johnson and company will still get the bill passed by Friday, probably tomorrow. With the exception of Thomas Massie, it looks to me like the holdouts are just playing hard-to-get

  103. 103.

    Barry

    @karen gail: “He already has; rest of world has known or should have known that US changes directions with every major election.”

    HOW MUCH is the question.  The USA is currently somebody who does coke and meth.

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