It’s nice to see that there are apparently SOME serious people left and some of them had a sit down with the toddler in chief and say “hey kiddo yeah that was fun for a while but let’s put the BB gun away for a while before you shoot your eye out.” You can fuck around with the stock market for a little bit and not totally destroy us, but your fuckery was impacting the bond market and reserve currency status so you need to chill the fuck out. And just like that we are back to basically where we were prior to his little hissy fit, with for now real loss being our credibility. Just a fucking total shitshow with this imbecile, and I have no idea what he thinks he is going to accomplish escalating a trade war with China.
In other news, the shower here has developed a profound leak with water coming out of the shower head even with everything turned off. We replaced a “cartridge” in the handle mechanism but that only slowed it a little bit. Something about hard water and needing to replace a valve or whatever. They are coming back tomorrow to open up the wall and fix it and then put a cover over it so there is a permanent access panel in the closet in the room to the other side of the panel. Yay!
Shout out to commenter Professor Bigfoot, who is going through some things with his heart. At least you got one, big guy, unlike the Republicans.
Two Awesome Intersections in the Same Week Open Thread
zhena gogolia
Yes, I’ve been thinking about Prof. B. I hope all goes well.
VFX Lurker
I’ve been out-of-the-loop, so I had to check this morning’s thread to see what the good Professor Bigfoot wrote.
Whoa. Wishing Professor B the best.
Albatrossity
In one sense we’re back to where we were; the can has just been kicked down the road a bit further. But the biggest problem created by Trump’s “policy” is actually worse. The uncertainty, both for businesses and consumers, is worse than it was yesterday, because he made it clear today that he is flying by the seat of his pants, and he’s wearing pajamas.
Steve LaBonne
@VFX Lurker: As one who has had open heart surgery (planned, aortic valve replacement) I’m wishing the best for the Professor. Heart stuff is no fun.
Steve LaBonne
@Albatrossity: Or maybe he’s pantless like Baud. Eww.
MCat
Really send my best to Prof B.
scav
@Albatrossity: Plus, he’s discovered he can jerk everyone about by playing with his little yoyo tariffs toy. All the headlines are his!
West of the Rockies
Trelane’s parents have their limits, evidently.
Princess
China, Mexico, Canada — the US’s biggest trading partners — the trade war is still very much on with them. In dollars worth of tariffs, nothing has changed. The recessionary effect will be enormous.
Splitting Image
The loss of credibility will probably prove to be worse than all other things Trump does put together.
WTFGhost
Hey, folks. I think I’ve given up on doctors. I’ve been labeled aggressive, so, I can’t trust that doctor any longer. I get it; I’m neurodivergent, and my volume can change without my realizing it, so, better to lose me as a patient, than ask if I can calm down (rather than telling me to “stop being aggressive”).
Fuck it. I know how the medical community treats us – as pre-suicide statistics, so why bother trying to help?
SpaceUnit
I had a call with my financial advisor last week. He convinced me to stay in.
It was probably the best move this last week, but going forward who the hell knows. Watching the S&P 500 down on the floor doing the Curly Shuffle for a week has me traumatized. I’m going to need a fucking prescription to get through this shit.
Timill
So what’s the opposite of pump & dump? Flounce & bounce?
Steve in the ATL
@SpaceUnit: a prescription for more tariffs?
SpaceUnit
@Steve in the ATL:
I don’t know. Maybe fentanyl. I’ve heard good things about it.
frosty
I had no idea there was anyone around him who was a) serious and b) could convince him to do anything. Which one of those serious people is going to convince him to resign?
Steve LaBonne
@Princess: And the inflationary effects. Lose -lose!
Gin & Tonic
@SpaceUnit: Personally I think it’s overrated. I was administered some in an ER a few years back, and it didn’t have a noticeable effect. Morphine, OTOH, works very well (yes, I’ve had that too.)
Steve LaBonne
@WTFGhost: Please don’t give up on finding someone who can give you the care, and caring, you deserve. They’re not always easy to find but they’re out there.
Old Dan and Little Ann
I mentioned a few weeks ago my cancer ridden neighbor gifted us her Grandfather Clock. It is now in our dining room and our neighbor was moved into hospice today. Just 64. We visited earlier. Ugh. Fucking cancer.
SpaceUnit
@Gin & Tonic:
I miss mescaline.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Larry the Cat describes the Orange Fart Cloud perfectly:
The stages in a Donald Trump deal:
1. Lie about something being a problem
2. Do something to “fix” it, which causes an actual problem
3. Say you won’t reverse what you’ve done
4. Reverse what you’ve done
5. Say “Art of the deal”
https://x.com/Number10cat/status/1910047538779939044
sixthdoctor
I’ll have this echoing in my head for God knows how long.
Marcopolo
Um actually according to the economists I read & trust we are not back to where we started because of the additional tariff on China (taking it to 104%) and the continuing tariffs on Canada & Mexico. Those are our 3 largest trading partners & the increase on China overwhelms the reduction on ALL the other countries.
Sorry to be gloomy and all, let me make that up by announcing Pastor Mike had to pull the House vote on the funding bill tonight cause he had too many members saying sorry no.
Soprano2
My manager told me he bought $3,000 worth of Mexican tequila and Canadian whiskey this week. He said all the distributors were saying he should buy before the tariffs take effect. That’s only temporary, though. What a shitshow
ETA I put a plastic baggie full of vinegar around my shower head every couple of months to keep the lime scale down. I secure it with a rubber band and leave it on overnight. We have really hard water here.
Marcopolo
@Marcopolo: Replying to myself to add this quote from George Pearkes from Bluesky:
“If you weight 2024 imports by the 10%/”reciprocal” tariff amount announced last Wednesday (with China at 54%, Mexico/Canada at 0%), the total tariff rate would have been 21%. Today, with China at 125% and Mexico/Canada at 10% along with ~everybody else, the rate is 26%.”
Kayla Rudbek
And I have the routine oncologist appointment tomorrow and then they moved my mammogram up so I’m getting that on Friday morning. I still have the lump, no real changes in size, appearance, etc. I’m still freaked out and I should probably look at getting a will and medical POA set up. And decide what to do with all my yarn, other craft supplies, and books (Mr. Rudbek or other survivors can sell or donate my clothes etc). Hopefully that will not be necessary for decades to come.
My sibling says that I will get a funeral pyre of all my handknits, but I would prefer to have the funeral goers pick out what they want and then donate the rest. I should remind everyone that the wool will not burn as readily as the cotton will.
And weirdly enough, one of my first thoughts on feeling the new lump was remembering Ekaterin Vorsoisson’s thoughts of “Captain Vorkosigan, how much would it have cost you to let go” in Komarr (Miles Vorkosigan tried to prevent someone falling to her death and failed, and told Ekaterin about it; she pointed out that if he had caught the falling woman, he would have fallen with her because he would not have let her go).
How long am I going to have to keep fighting this, maybe I should have gone with a full mastectomy to begin with, am I going to live to see my godson graduate from college and have kids of his own, am I going to live to retire, is it worth it to keep on going with this country going fascist, etc etc.
bbleh
@Splitting Image: as observed … somewhere, THIS is the primary effect and all the market bouncing is the secondary effect. Even Krugman, he of the “confidence fairy,” has said that what this administration has done just on the economic front has caused LASTING damage, far beyond mere stock — or even T-bill — market fluctuations. He has undermined confidence in markets themselves and even in the rule of law (which is, y’know, kinda important to businesses and stuff).
The Orange Guy doesn’t care, of course Almost certainly he doesn’t know, and he wouldn’t understand if somebody had the courage to explain it to him (before he exploded in wrath and fired them). “There is no room in his head for anybody else,” and that very much includes larger things like markets, the economic welfare of the country at large, and (what used to be) our global leadership role.
Thanks again, Republicans!
MazeDancer
Several people online have noted we just transferred a chunk of middle-class people’s retirement accounts to rich traders.
Ali Velshi mentioned how many sold a slice of their IRA in a down market because they worried Trump would destroy everything. And they didn’t move it to the Bond Market. No one did.
I was among them, as I sold enough on Monday to buy cat food and human food for two years. Still glad I did. Can feel less panic every time Trump pulls another stunt.
mapanghimagsik
Wishing the best for Professor B.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Same here.
Yes. And I wrote before, the worst is yet to come from the Trump revenge tour.
sralloway
It may be the shower diverter valve, a unit which takes the hot and cold water and and sends it to the desired pipes. Kinda like a switchyard on a rail line, sending this hot water here and the cold water there and the two to either the shower head or the faucet. costs $44 to $176, depending on the vendor and type.
EDT:I work in a Lowes store after many years in small town newspapers. At 75, I needed a break.
NaijaGal
@mapanghimagsik: Wishing him the best as well.
Jackie
@Kayla Rudbek: I sincerely hope you’re overreacting and all questions will be resolved with your appt Friday. Best wishes and hugs, if welcomed.
Geminid
I was checking out Israeli commentator Iris Boker and saw she wrote a long, 15-part post about Trump’s tariffs. As usual, Ms. Boker posted a cartoon or meme with each part. One of the memes showed a picture of Trump being interviewed by a reporter, with speech bubbles:
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Kayla Rudbek: best wishes to you too of course.
YY_Sima Qian
Great FT article illustrating how the PRC dominating multiple industrial verticals make it extremely challenging/costly/time consuming to diversity away, & using the battery supply chain an example:
The most strike chart (click through the link) showing number of products where countries have > 50% share of global exports:
& Glenn Luk has a good summary of the dynamics at play, & what the US needs to do (which Trump will sorely neglect to do) to even address the fall out of the escalated Sino-US trade war:
The Biden Administration at least tried to do some of that homework in its prosecution of the tech war agains the PRC. The result was lackluster because the technocratic people involved – political appointees, think tankers & corporate C-suites (many w/ liberal arts backgrounds) – did not have sufficient expertise or experience to understand & evaluate the complicated global supply chains, the PRC industry’s central role in it, the sources of the PRC industries’ competitive advantage, or even how innovation are achieved & scaled (beyond outdated & simplistic tropes about subsidies & stolen IP).
The Trump gang of “finance brained” circus freaks, carnival barkers & cynical charlatans is far from able to put in even that level of effort.
Ohio Mom
@WTFGhost: Oh that loud voice thing, I am familiar with that.
You may be better off without that particular doctor, but not better off without a doctor at all.
Most of our body parts are not neurodivergent, asthma or high blood pressure or whatever can kill a person. Best to have things like those treated.
Are they any support groups in your area, maybe someone who is similar to you has found a good doctor. I might also ask your local NAMI chapter if they could recommend any doctors.
We like seeing you here, stick around, would ya?
Wombat Probability Cloud
Yes, holding the Professor in my thoughts. He is an esteemed commenter here and I’m always thankful for his perspective.
West of the Rockies
@Kayla Rudbek:
Wishing you a good prognosis, Kayla.
Quiltingfool
@Kayla Rudbek: I am sorry you are going through this anxiety and fear. Not knowing is so stressful, isn’t it? And I am not going to tell you not to worry, that’s not helpful at all.
Please keep us updated. We are here for you, and you know we are all pulling for you, okay?
From one fiber art diva to another, I understand completely your concern about what you should do with your yarns, tools and supplies. I’ve got a room that has all my quilting stuff (and other fiber arts odds and ends, like crochet threads and my silly sequin and bead Christmas ornaments kits). I’ve got more Studio 180 tools than Del Monte has hamburger dills, and my fabric stash is very large. Plus I have a crap load of quilts waiting for a forever home! Two sewing machines, an embroidery machine and a long arm quilting machine! Whew!
When I shuffle off this mortal coil, I’m thinking my better half might need to have a big old garage sale!
YY_Sima Qian
@Marcopolo: The current status is a bit better because it allows for a lot of PRC exports to be routed through 3rd countries, w/ a small mark up (for transshipment or relabeling, even shifting final assembly outside of the PRC will take months to year+), & only subject to the 10% global tariff. Even if Trump wants to enforce content & place of origin rules to clamp down on such rerouting, I doubt USG has the administrative capacity to do so, given DOGE’s purge. After the 90 days pause, the headline tariff rate on PRC products will not be all that relevant, any more. Just in time for Trump to resume his escalated global trade war, of course.
The tariff regime as of yesterday morning meant few opportunities for such rerouting (surely the intent of the exercise), which would have been far more disruptive.
Make no mistake, the current tariff regime is still highly disruptive & inflationary, & negative impact of the policy chaos is far greater than the tariffs themselves.
Tehanu
Neither does he.
@Kayla Rudbek: Sorry you’re dealing with this, hope it turns out well for you.
YY_Sima Qian
@Kayla Rudbek: My best wishes to you!
Ohio Mom
@Kayla Rudbek: Take a deep breath. Then another. How about a third?
Like you, I’ve had breast cancer and what I learned through that little adventure is that breast cancer is complicated. You know that as well. So many variables, from whether or not it is hormone receptive, the size of the tumor, etc.
Until all the variables are known, the probabilities of any of the scenarios you are dreaming up are unknown. Lots of people do survive recurrences.
The uncertainty is torture. Hasn’t anyone offered you an Ativan prescription?
Good luck and keep us posted.
Kayla Rudbek
@Quiltingfool: a garage sale or designated heirs. I wound up telling my parents a joke where the wife and husband were in bed, the wife asking her husband over and over again if he would remarry if she went first, if the new wife would get her clothes or her car. The husband kept telling his wife, there’s nobody else. Then the wife asked, “would you give her my golf clubs?” The husband sleepily replied, “don’t be silly, she’s left-handed.”
We fiber divas could of course say instead, “would you give her my good fabric scissors” but most people wouldn’t get the joke then…(and anyone not partnered with a fabric diva probably wouldn’t know about the good fabric scissors in the first place)
YY_Sima Qian
Good read on the challenges of restoring manufacturing to the US. Molson Hart is another source that needs to be read critically. As a business owner, he has some conservative to right wing views (on labor, for example). He can speak far too confidently on subjects outside of his area of expertise. However, he does know manufacturing supply chains & the vagaries of tariff schemes.
molson @Molson_Hart
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”.
These tariffs will not work. In fact, they may even do the opposite, fail to bring manufacturing back and make America poorer in the process.
This article gives the 14 reasons why this is the case, how the United States could bring manufacturing back if it were serious about doing so, and what will ultimately happen with this wrongheaded policy
I’ve been in the manufacturing industry for 15 years. I’ve manufactured in the USA and in China. I worked in a factory in China. I speak and read Chinese. I’ve purchased millions of dollars worth of goods from the US and China, but also Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Cambodia. I’ve also visited many factories in Mexico and consider myself a student of how countries rise and fall.
In other words, unlike many who have voiced an opinion on this topic, I know what I am talking about. And that’s why I felt compelled to write this article. I had to do it. I’m a first generation American and I love my country and it pains me to see it hurtling at high speed towards an economic brick wall. This article is an attempt to hit the brakes.
mayim
@Kayla Rudbek:
My father was a serious photographer [see here for a few samples of some of my favorites of his]. When he died, my brother and I had [literally] hundreds of matted photos to sort through. We each kept a couple hundred, sent some to Dad’s sisters, and still had enough left over that we put almost 200 out on a couple tables at his memorial service for people to take. Only a few were left at the end ~ and we didn’t actually have to follow through on our threat to not let anyone leave until they chose one of the photos to take.
mayim
(Third attempt at posting this; hoping the previous two versions don’t resurrect themselves as soon as I post this.)
It’s only a small blip in all the devastation that currently happening ~ but a third of my co-workers got lay-off notices today as the result of IMLS having their entire staff/budget cut. This is a week after two others were let go because an NEH grant was [essentially] retroactively unfunded.
All amazing, dedicated, competent professionals and wonderful people ~ some of the best co-workers I’ve ever had. Horrendous for them personally and devastating for the library and the communities we serve: visually/physically impaired, poor children in rural areas, immigrants in urban areas, homebound, ebook borrowers, and so many others.
I’m so angry that I’ve pretty much reached being numb.
YY_Sima Qian
The new normal:
Keeping the Chinese customers dependent on US products is likely to strengthen the US’ position on the tech competition, but the policymaking is thoroughly corrupt & anything but strategic.
NaijaGal
@Kayla Rudbek: So sorry that you’re going through this. Wishing you the best possible outcome.
sab
@Kayla Rudbek: My left-handed mom sent me off to junior high school with a pair of left-handed scissors for home economics.
It took me fifty years to realize that they were left-handed and that is why they worked so badly. Funny thing is I am ambidextrous. Had she only told me I could have just used my other hand and they would have worked fine.
My daughter in law is now happily using them.
Melancholy Jaques
@Gin & Tonic:
When I had my STEMI last June, they put me on a morphine drip in the ER. It didn’t take the pain away, but it turned me into a laughing & babbling idiot. The nurse had to tell me to stop talking & do as I was told.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: OT my sister says there is no such language as Chinese. That is like saying we in the US speak European. There is Mandarin and there are other languages or dialects. Like we speak English or Spanish. My college roommate spoke Chinese because her parents did, but her Chinese was Fujian dialect, which was incomprehensible to Mandarin speakers.
Anyway
@Kayla Rudbek: Thinking of you and sending best wishes.
Peale
@YY_Sima Qian: Yep. A “Million dollar a plate dinner”….must have been raising money for the Girl Scouts or the local Children’s hospital…these are very generous men.
Anyway
@Geminid: lolol! Spineless US journalists would never use the l-word…
Andrya
@WTFGhost: Please don’t give up on getting necessary health care.
I have two suggestions:
#1: Any doctor you use in the future, right at the start, explain your neurodivergence and ask them to work with you.
As an example, I had to do this with a new dentist recently. He took my blood pressure, and freaked out- it was extremely high. He wanted to send me straight to the emergency room!!! I had to explain to him that when I was a child my family had the dentist from hell- no pain relief ever, not even for extracting a molar- an infected molar! It was quite literally torture. As a result, I’m always extremely phobic/terrified at the dentist, and my blood pressure in his office did not represent my general health. I explained that if he wanted to check things like blood pressure, he would need to work with me on the fear factor, and he agreed. Couldn’t you do something similar?
#2: Is there anyone you could bring to doctors’ appointments to advocate/translate for you?
Stay healthy!
Andrya
Best wishes for Professor B and Kayla Rudbek.
Quiltingfool
@Kayla Rudbek: My husband has had scissor training. He KNOWS not to use my fabric scissors on anything but fabric.
He will walk into my quilt cave with an old t-shirt, and humbly ask me if he can use “the good scissors” to cut off the t-shirt sleeves.
It helps that he has so many tools, and he knows how disastrous it can be if someone misuses a DeWalt tool. One friend of his ruined a diamond blade on his tile saw by cutting through two tiles at once. Boy howdy, I’m glad I didn’t do that, lol!
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: Yes, a lot of the spoken “southern dialects” in China are really separate languages, just w/ the the same script, much like Italian, Spanish & Portuguese. The unifying element of the Chinese civilization through history is the literary Chinese w/ a common script & grammar, & everything else about the Chinese civilization (history, philosophy, literature until the 14th century) was transmitted & spread through this vehicle.
But then, you know what they say, “a language is a dialect w/ an army & a navy”.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: Her husband, from Shanghai, is really upset about how much Shanghainese (Wu dialect?) has declined since he lived there. Everybody speaks Mandarin lately.
Gretchen
@Quiltingfool: What’s your Etsy store name again?
Gretchen
@Andrya: Seconded. Good thoughts to both Professor Bigfoot and Kayla Rudbek. Keep us posted.
sab
@sab: He thought that it was really helpful for Chinese internationally to have bilingual people. Back in the day in Shanghai everyone was bilingual in Wu and Mandarin since they started school. So learning a third or fourth language was no big deal. Just what international mechants have done since forever. With the modern focus on Mandarin they are now as limited as Americans, who unlike Europeans, just don’t learn foreign languages at all.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: It’s true, the younger generation mostly speak Mandarin, & their Wu fluency is iffy. Same goes for Cantonese.
The PRC education system emphasizes instruction in Mandarin. Ethnic minorities receive instruction in their minority languages only in the specific language classes & select other courses. Chinese, STEM subjects, history, etc. are all in Mandarin. Use of dialects or minority languages is not really suppressed outside of classrooms, there are still municipal/provincial broadcasters that exclusive provide programming in the local dialect/minority language, for the elderly that are not fluent Mandarin speakers. But younger people just naturally settle into using Mandarin.
Young children who are fluent speakers of dialects before kindergarten, raised by their grandparents, tend to switch to Mandarin after starting kindergarten.
In a few decades, I would not be surprised if local dialects become marginalized, & we are left w/ variations of Mandarin w/ local accents. Minority languages have protected status, so the PRC government makes investments to ensure that they do not die out, even as it makes greater investments to ensure ethnic minorities are fluent in Mandarin.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: English instruction is less emphasized in public education in recent years, but there is still part of the standard curriculum from 3rd grade on. Plenty of middle class Chinese parents still shell out a lot of money to send their kids through after school English tutoring programs.
I think it is more useful to be bilingual in Chinese & a western language. The dramatically different construction, in written form & in grammar, exercises different parts of the brain, even diversifies modes of thought.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: My sister’s first husband has a sister who also came here to USA. Her English course ( English as a foreign language) was aimed at Cantonese speaking immigrants. Not much use to her for English, but it helped her Cantonese immensely. She learned English at home watching Sesame Street. She was a music major who went on to get a US degree in Civil Engineering ( construction). Her multilingual daughter is thriving as an attorney who can speak construction.
Rusty
@Kayla Rudbek: Sending prayers for you, your family and your caregivers. What terrible anxiety to be going through.
Ruckus
@Kayla Rudbek:
The 3 women in my family all had breast cancer. Mom got cut up early and made it to 95 years old. Oldest sister made it to 65 and middle sister made it to 75. I’ve had cancer, 2 types. Dad din’t have cancer, he did however have Alzheimer’s, made it to 84. Couldn’t form words/speak for the last 5.
My point of all of this is that we are born, we live, we die. A cousin made 6 months. The things that we can die from many/most of them have less effects than they did 30-50 years ago because we, as in humanity, have learned a hell of a lot over the last 100 years. And even with all of that, enough morons voted for shitforbrains. AGAIN. Except he’s 4 years older and 4 years even more senile, and just as fucking stupid. Or possibly stupider. QUITE possibly.
And other than that I’ve got nothing, other than a question. How in the hell could any human with 2 or more brain cells think that shitforbrains would/could actually be in any way whatsoever an actual president or in charge of anything more than a men’s room cleanup janitor. Hell he very, very likely couldn’t even do that. At any time in his life. Let alone having a massive case of old fartitus – since long before he was even an adult – age wise.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: I grew up in Florida, where Spanish was an educational thing. I was in the north, where there were no Cubans or Spanish speakers at all. We learned Spanish in school on tv. But when I left Florida and eventually moved elsewhere, to California and Nevada, knowing some Spanish was really useful.
WTFGhost
@Steve LaBonne: I know. It’s just tiring.
@Ohio Mom: I’m sticking around – just frustrated tonight.
@Andrya: Hee! My wife came with me, and she is the one who agrees that this is a too-sensitive doctor. It’s still frustrating, to be doing your best, and have such an unkind response.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: Learning additional languages is always beneficial, if only for the greater cultural fluency & empathy, that comes from language learning.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: I totally agree.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: I had Spanish, French and Latin as foreign languages. My older sister is fluent in French and Mandarin but she never had any Latin or Spanish. I don’t know how that happened. She is only two years older. The vagaries of American education. She did art history and I did law and then accounting, so we each learned the languages we needed
ETA But she is fluent in her foreign languages and I am not even functionsl in mine.
YY_Sima Qian
Oof (chart through the link):
YY_Sima Qian
MAGA continuing the hammer blows to US credibility, soft power, competitiveness, & that US surplus in services trade:
cain
@sab:
I’ve seen that with Dublin people complaining about folks from county Cork. Must admit Cork accent is hard to understand.
YY_Sima Qian
PRC MFA Spokeswoman sharing a video of Mao fulminating against Eisenhower during the Korean War (click through the link):
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: My sister retired just in time.
I am so angry, but don’t know how to exppress it. Idiot from NYC suburbs works to make rest of the country as stupid and ignorant as he is. Republicans all on board.
Nancy
Professor Bigfoot,
I hope for the best possible outcome for you.
Martin
I wouldn’t assume that. For all we know Musk got his ear for a few hours.
Besides, it’s a 90 day pause, signaling they’ll still go back on, and only taking 10% in the meantime. The major pharmaceutical tariffs may or may not be imminent.
This is an impossible environment to try and operate in, so nobody is going to expose themselves to any more risk than necessary. Still think the US is going to lose its status as the default reserve currency to the Euro. Shit gets real then.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: More notably, the 2nd largest category of imports is machinery, boilers, etc. You know, the stuff you would need to build a factory in the US. Plastic and steel are other big categories – pretty important to making things. And electronic components are in the largest category, which is why my son’s company is moving their manufacturing outside the US. 125% on components might have sunk them.
Martin
@Quiltingfool: There are two scissors I’m allowed to use – the pair she put in the garage for me, and the cutlery shears in the kitchen. All others are hers.
prostratedragon
@YY_Sima Qian:
Derek Guy has frequently posted on these manufacturing chain issues in the garment industry. Here is one chain:
Martin
Martin
People might want to take a moment to read about the Triffin Dilemma.
Regardless of Trumps intentions (he has none) the logical resolution to the problem that he has plainly stated (zeroing out the trade deficit) is to eliminate the dollar as reserve currency, since it’s role as reserve currency is the primary contributor to the problem. If China still supports SDRs as an acceptable reserve (I don’t see why they wouldn’t, particularly if they don’t see the Yuan as being favored by other nations) then that might gain traction fairly quickly.
The scale of the unloading of US dollars and other US assets (China is sitting on $1.5T in mortgage backed securities they could unload at any point) would be devastating and instantly overshadow any benefit that anyone could imagine from the tariffs. I can assure you Navarro doesn’t see any of this coming, and I’m not sure there is any other economist that Trump listens to. Bessent isn’t an economist.
Ksmiami06
@MCat: Same. Good luck Professor. We need you
Ksmiami06
@YY_Sima Qian: It’s so stupid and self defeating. We could get out of this zero sum mindset but are intent on having enemies
Ksmiami06
@Ruckus: we’ve allowed ignorance and greed fester to such a degree in this country that it might just consume us all. Should have disallowed Fox and other disinformation, but as goes the paradox of intolerance… so goes the country.
YY_Sima Qian
@prostratedragon: Yep, read some of his threads, definitely worth following.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: That’s what happens when people who influence policy all have finance or software/internet platform backgrounds, they think everything is fungible & frictionless. Bessent & Lutnick clearly thinks labor is completely fungible.
YY_Sima Qian
Gossipy (well it is Maggie Haberman & the NYT) reporting that illustrates the utterly shambolic decision making process in the White House, but perhaps the MSM can also investigate who in Trump’s circle made a killing from trading on insider information, playing the market gyrations:
Martin
People should consider reading up on the Triffin Dilemma.
The consequence of being the reserve currency is that you have to provide liquidity to the global market, so you always have to run trade deficits in order to do that. If we take Trump’s goal of zeroing that out, the only way to do that is to remove the dollar as the reserve currency. If China is still supporting the use of SDRs that’s a proposal that could get traction fairly quickly, with the result being a large scale dumping of US dollars and some fucking wild inflation followed by the US actually having to convince other nations to lend to us, and presumably needing to be good citizens in the process.
Adding NATO members being chastised to pay for their own defense which they have responded with ‘okay, we’ll just stop buying US arms’, there’s a whole lot of anvils over our heads right now.
Oh, yeah, and I mentioned before, China holds about $1.5T in US mortgage backed securities they could unload at any point.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Total foreign holdings of U.S. mortgage backed securities is US$ 1.37T at end of Jan. The PRC is one of the top foreign holders, along with Japan, Taiwan & Canada, but it should still be a fraction of the total.
Of course, it is an additional lever the PRC can pull if it chooses to, should the trade war expand to a financial war.
Back during the GFC, Putin approached CPC regime to coordinate a rapid sale of Treasury notes & MBSs, financial warfare at a point of great vulnerability for the U.S. The PRC declined at the time, in order to protect the value of its USD denominated holdings & to preserve the international financial system.
Such Sino-US coordination is highly unlikely to be in the cards in a new financial crisis. Even if the PRC government is amenable, I don’t think the Trump gang can execute on their end.
Sally
@Quiltingfool: My family knows it is not worth their lives to even look at my fabric scissors. They don’t agree or understand why, but they know they die at the hands of the very same scissors if they try it.
lowtechcyclist
@YY_Sima Qian:
A well-thought-out plan?! Hahahahaha. Any plan at all?? Ditto.
100% confidence that there is no plan. Just the Mango Madman’s Random Walk of Retribution.
Princess
@YY_Sima Qian: It is shocking to me how many Americans don’t realize that while Trump’s cave yesterday makes things better for large parts of the world, things are no better and even worse for Americans, unless they have very large stock portfolios
p.a
Recent events have certainly moved stabbing Ukraine in the back off the front page, of course. For dereliction of duty, treason, incompetence, moral vileness, this maladministration is too much of a target rich environment.
Geminid
Military delegations from Turkiye and Israel met in Baku, Azerbaijan yesterday. On the agenda: establishing a “deconfliction” mechanism intended to keep from them tangling with each other in Syria. This is a significant development, and there’s reporting on it from Axios’s Barak Ravid, Haaretz’s Avi Scharf and Middle East Eye’s Ragip Soylu among others.
Azerbaijan is a long way to go just to talk, considering the two nations are right across the Eastern Mediterranean from each other. But not long after the Gaza,War commenced, Turkiye put its recently repaired diplomatic relations with Israel back in the freezer again (Azerbaijan has good relations with both).
So yesterday, the Turks made the Israelis fly around Turkiye, through Greece and Romania and over the Black Sea in order to get to Baku. “No overflight permission for you assholes!” Hopefully, before long it will be, “We hope you enjoy your flight through our friendly Turkish skies.”
Plane spotters were somewhat thrilled to see the IDF’s Boeing 707 in action. There’re not many of them flying these days.
Gloria DryGarden
@SpaceUnit: um, fentanyl. No. I had it during my ankle dislocation and broken leg fiasco. It cut the pain, but it made me so horribly dizzy, with each part of me separately dizzy, which was very uncomfortable.
i can’t understand why anyone would want such a thing.
YY_Sima Qian
@Princess: On a positive note, tariff avoidance, tariff evasion, fraud, bribery & smuggling will help mitigate the inflationary impact.
Gloria DryGarden
@Kayla Rudbek: you are in my thoughts. I hope this goes well, better than expected.
Thank you for describing your thoughts, what it is like, to process and think about this, the feelings you are riding through.
i ask the goddess to hold you and carry you in her lily pad hands.
( translation for atheists, is available)
prostratedragon
Calendar catch-up, featuring good friends
Billie Holliday, April 7: “Miss Brown to You”
Carmen McRae, April 8: “Take Five”
Ramalama
@mayim: Woah. Those photos are stunning. My favorites are Cactus, Gear, Hardware, and Blizzard, and .. the others.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@YY_Sima Qian: the Chinese in Vancouver must get a kick out of seeing signs in the Canadian airport in two different languages “French” and “English,” especially when the differences are between “arrivals” and “arrivee”
Another Scott
@Gretchen: Click on her blue ‘nym link in her comment (after the comment number) and you’ll go right to it.
Great stuff!
HTH!
Best wishes,
Scott.
Kayla Rudbek
@YY_Sima Qian: one course in organic chemistry should teach them that not all intelligence and/or knowledge is fungible. Organic chemistry is a fun and difficult subject and I was/am not good at it. But of course that would actually require that these programmer bros and finance bros learn some humility.
Ramalama
@Kayla Rudbek: Will and Medical POA yes. Funeral Pyre maybe not so much? Events my parents had should have knocked them out earlier, but then they carried on. You never know.
I found this book – The Poetry Lesson by Andrei Codrescu – to help me when my parents died. It’s something I’m always gushing about to friends for reading enjoyment, no other message, because that’s how I roll.
You might enjoy as well.
YY_Sima Qian
@Kayla Rudbek: Despite being a ChemE major, I was not very good at “Orgo”, either. Too much memorization. I preferred PChem.
Geminid
@Kayla Rudbek: Russian composer Alexander Borodin (1833-1887) was a leading organic chemist during the science’s early years. I kind of wish Borodin had practiced less chemistry and composed more music, though. He wrote some pretty stuff.
Ramalama
Shout out to Professor Bigfoot. Maybe longer drives in your convertible Whatsis but fewer donuts? I’m voluntarily participating in Lent (2nd time ever, now that I’m not Catholic nomore) and have opted to give up sugar / chocolate. No donuts for me, neither. Raising a cup of Earl Grey your way.
lowtechcyclist
@p.a:
Recent events have certainly moved stabbing Ukraine in the back off the front page, of course.
And the Signal chat is practically forgotten. Nothing like trying to destroy both the government and the economy to drive away the thought of scandals that would have been a BFD in more normal times.
lowtechcyclist
@Ramalama:
My wife saw a great church message board about Lent last week.
“Keep the chocolate, but give up the bigotry, misogyny, and hatred.”
If the church had been close by, I’d start attending. But it’s up near Crofton, which is a bit of a hike from here.
JML
@Kayla Rudbek: Very important to make sure your POD and TOD accounts have beneficiaries and contingent beneficiaries named, regardless. It’s not unusual for most of a person’s assets to not be controlled by their will, and it’s easy for people to forget beneficiary designations. (I had totally forgotten to do it on my retirement account at my current job, which I’ve held for nearly 10 years)
I wish you successful treatment and hopefully a reduction in stress. For many people a health challenge like this is the catalyst for doing necessary estate planning, and while I’m confident this won’t be a terminal condition for you in the short term, doing the uncomfortable estate planning is still a good idea (and for some people reduces their stress levels while dealing with their treatment).
medical POA first, financial POA next, beneficiary updates/adds, then will. Also good to get into the habit of updating an asset list on an annual basis (and telling an heir/executor WHERE IT IS) so if something happens, people know where things are.
I’m still dealing with some of mom’s estate stuff and financials and she died in July.