That’s the correct word, right? A gaggle of geese, a sampling of substacks?
Dan Pfeiffer
1. Defcon Zero
Since his surprisingly large (but still relatively small) win, Trump has seemed politically untouchable. He was elected despite being convicted of crimes, indicted for other crimes, and inspiring a violent revolt on the Capitol. Since being elected, Trump has committed countless acts — including pardoning the January 6th rioters and having his aides text about impending military attacks — that would have derailed other presidencies.
But the reaction to the tariffs is proof that Trump cannot defy political gravity. He may not recover from this fall. Trump’s honeymoon was always going to be short-lived but he ended it by unilaterally deciding to crash the economy.
2. The Revolt of the Influencers
Trump has proven time and again that he can easily survive bad press from mainstream media outlets. Getting hammered by the New York Times and CNN may even strengthen Trump with some of his supporters. What he can’t survive is a revolt of the influencers who helped elect him. And that’s exactly what happened over the last several days; and then the market crashed.
3. Trump is Not Out of the Woods Yet
The stock market clearly loves the surrender, touting huge gains within minutes of the announcement. Goldman Sachs rescinded their recession call after the pause. But Trump and America are not out of the woods yet.
4. The Lasting Impact
From a political perspective, Trump likely did some lasting damage to himself and his party. Because of his wealth, his stint playing a businessman on reality TV, and nostalgia for the economy of his first term, Trump is viewed by many voters as someone who can successfully steer the economy. It’s why he won the election. So many voters swallowed their concerns about his conduct, character, and policies on issues because they trusted him to lower costs.
The pure chaos of the last week on an issue that broke through like no other has undermined the central premise of Trump’s political identity. He looked crazy and incompetent. His advisors had no idea what they were doing.
The Republican Party looked feckless.
Paul Krugman
Trump Is Stupid, Erratic and Weak
Anyone sounding the all-clear on tariffs, or Trump economic policy in general, should be kept away from sharp objects and banned from operating heavy machinery. We’re in a hardly better place than we were before Donald Trump announced a tariff pause (in a Truth Social post, of course.) In fact, we may be in a worse place.
Let me make four points about Trump’s post-pause tariff regime.
1. Even the post-pause tariff rates represent a huge protectionist shock
2. Destructive uncertainty about future policy has increased
3. We’re still at risk of a major financial crisis
4. The world now knows that Trump is weak as well as erratic
The level of financial market stress declined somewhat yesterday, but the situation remains fraught. Trump’s next stupid policy move — and there will be more stupid moves — could quite easily tip us over the edge.
Above all, don’t take yesterday’s relief rally as a sign that the danger is behind us.
The story of the tariffs so far — at least as other countries will see it — is that Trump announced extreme policies, insisted that he would persist with those policies no matter what, then beat an ignominious retreat. In other words, Trump is a typical bully, full of swagger and tough talk, who runs away at the first sign of adversity.
Public Notice – Liz Dye
John Roberts will save the judiciary if he has to burn it down
If Chief Justice John Roberts thinks he’s protecting the legitimacy of the judiciary, he has a funny way of showing it.
Less than a month ago, he rebuked the Trump administration for attacking Judge James Boasberg, who blocked the deportation of migrants under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA).
“For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision. The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose,” he scolded.
Then on Monday, the chief justice cut the legs out from under Judge Boasberg in an unsigned order (drafted in Roberts’s signature, affable style) gutting the AEA case. Worse, by heading off an impending confrontation between the Trump administration and the trial court, the Court implicitly blessed the president’s strategy of defiance.
Put simply, the Court once again told the Justice Department that it is fine to ignore a trial judge’s order, and even an appeals court order, because, when push comes to shove, SCOTUS will make Trump’s problems go away.
Political Weather Forecast – WaterGirl
Extreme weather conditions extremely likely, but with some sun peeking out between the clouds, and the possibility that some of the worst conditions will dissipate if the opposing clouds that are forming get their shit together.
Belafon
It looks like some people woke up on Wall Street and realized that they hadn’t won.
artem1s
of course Krugman misses the most important point. The “world” has been preparing for GOP and Wall Street’s self immolation since W’s flirting with defaulting on the national debt at least. We now know that China has already positioned itself to ‘win’ no matter what Orangemandius declares from moment to moment about tariffs. Germany and Poland will probably benefit from the decline of US influence in Europe. London is still Brexit happy and authoritarian curious so will be vulnerable to banking failures as the Pound tanks right along with the US dollar.
And Russian/Putin want the chaos and to collapse the US dollar and the ‘world’ knows that eventually Dumbass Hilter Wannabe will bend the knee sooner or later. And there are too many Nazi Wannabes helping the collapse along because they imagine that would give them an opening to start their very own White Nationalist American Anschluss in the Western Hemisphere.
WaterGirl
@Belafon: So much winning!
jonas
Which influencers has Trump “lost”? Rogan?
WaterGirl
@artem1s: In all fairness to Krugman, I didn’t copy his entire substack, and I’m willing to bet that he is aware of everything you wrote.
Jerry
Ugh. Making money for Substack is making money for those that write on Substack and are nazis.
WaterGirl
@jonas:
“The revolt of these key influencers who decided the election for Trump is a huge problem that Trump had to solve.”
.
.
WaterGirl
@Jerry:
I hate nazis as much as the next person, but I’m not going to ignore important voices that are on substack.
We have bigger problems than nazis getting a few pennies from our reading key voices while we are in the fight of our lives.
bbleh
A screenshot of Substacks? A scattering of Substacks?
Had a book as a child called “An Exaltation of Larks” — just beautiful artwork. And lots of cool words.
jonas
@WaterGirl: I’ve heard of Shapiro of course, who is a douchebag’s douchebag, but the others are new to me. My podcast queue tends towards esoteric histories, books about tall ships, and the like, so I guess I’m out of touch with the yoots these days.
Jerry
Agreed, but it still makes me groan. I still read a lot of the ones in your list.
Belafon
@artem1s: If they had actually been preparing since W, Ukraine wouldn’t have needed to rely on so much US hardware.
danielx
oldgold
The Tangerine Terror of Tariffs touts the good economic numbers for March – unemployment/ inflation.
In reality what these March numbers disclose is that the Mango Menace inherited a damn good economy. Is it too much to ask that the press point this out?
His madcap economic
planconcoction is going to lead to unnecessary economic hardship here at home and abroad. Already, it has done lasting brand damage to our country’s economic standing. If you don’t believe me, ask the 10 year bond.WaterGirl
@jonas:
Me, too.
artem1s
@WaterGirl: agreed. should have said he’s not emphasizing the important point instead of missing the important point. MAGAt world is doing their best to vilify China and blame them for what is about to happen. The issue with the US is we play the blame game while China plays the long game. The GOP has refused for 5 decades to put any money toward basic infrastructure or incentives to companies to keep their factories in the US. And on top of that other countries are now going to be afraid to send their kids to college and grad school here. Our Universities care more about turning out football players than engineers and researchers. We’re falling behind in R&D in every industry now.
It would take us 50 years to rebuild the manufacturing infrastructure needed to resolve the trade deficit with China. But the GOP will still try to blame Biden or Obama or Clinton while the rest of the world figures out how to move on without having to listen to the .001% like Soutpiel whinge about why no one wants to buy our shitty products.
schrodingers_cat
@WaterGirl: They will kiss the ring again. There will be ample opportunities for toadies to make money off of grifting and outright corruption. They will not turn on him.
artem1s
@Belafon: post WWII Germany was prohibited from building up their military. NATO was created in part to keep any one European country and Germany in particular from becoming a military super power. And most of Europe was perfectly fine with putting their effort into infrastructure – first Western Europe right after the war and then Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet block. That’s how they’ve been preparing. What they have learned since Russia’s invasion is that they aren’t as reliant on Russian gas and oil as they thought they were. And they’ve strengthened their infrastructure around renewable energy. Russia is intent on invading Ukraine because if they join the EU that’s pretty much the end of Russia as a super power. They need that bread basket or they will be starving.
mappy!
Twenty-Four Hours, Groceries, Tesla, Tariff… I sense a trend.
catclub
Granting a huge mulligan for 2020. GWBush got a huge mulligan for 9/11.
No mulligan for the much greater disaster of Benghazi.
catclub
@oldgold: This is still all of Trump’s M.O.
Wreck something that was doing fine, quietly go back to the way it was before (only somewhat worse off for the trip) and get credit for the improvement.
The press never figures it out and calls him on it.
Josie
@artem1s:
Not just our universities. Like the proverbial stopped clock, Ramaswamy was right about this weakness in our society. It was true in my high school and college days many years ago and is still true today.
catclub
also if they had been preparing since 2014.
YY_Sima Qian
Huh, curious item that came across my X feed:
Very quiet visit, of which the UK government has been tight lipped about.
Quicksand
I wish I didn’t have to, but I now read Roberts’s rebuke differently, to wit: don’t impugn the integrity of these district court judges; they are part of the system we need to preserve to maintain the appearance of integrity. But don’t worry, we gotcha covered.
piratedan
ok, so DJT pulled back on the Tariff talk for now (after ensuring a whole lot of people made a whole lot of money shorting the entire economic system, no doubt) and absolutely nothing has been done to prevent him from doing the same fucking thing in a month.
So we have deferred a disaster, but are still subject to the whims of DJT (and those who pull his strings) to go on the ride yet again.
Suzanne
@WaterGirl:
Thank you. Know the enemy.
I read a lot of really, really terrible people because I think it’s important to glimpse into their milieu. The people who have the least accurate takes, even if they’re nice people, are the ones who try to shut all this shit out.
matt
I think a weak Trump is a net positive for markets.
YY_Sima Qian
Don’t expect any talks between Trump & Xi any time soon. Trump relishes hashing out deals on the fly w/ other leaders one on one, unscripted; & he wants his ego massaged by having Xi call him. Xi (& all CPC leadership before him), do not leave things to chance, & will only show up a summit if all of the substance has been agreed to & the outcome certain.
Belafon
@Josie: Because we decided that -5% is too high a tax rate on corporations, they no longer felt the need to spend the money on doing new things. R&D at most companies is nearly nil.
Ksmiami06
@matt: yup. Guy needs to be muzzled yesterday
Steve LaBonne
@piratedan: Prohibitive tariffs on China and 10% on the rest of the world will still do grave economic damage, as Krugman explains in the rest of that Substack post. We’re not out of any woods.
Belafon
@piratedan: The tariffs are still there, and they’re highest on our biggest trading partners. Which is why the DOW is down over 900 right now.
Bupalos
@Suzanne: I don’t actually get the sub stack angst. Is the platform itself controlled by a Nazi? And does it engage in algorithmic manipulation? Because to my ears it almost sounds like “Hitler wrote a book, so don’t read books or you’re helping Hitler.”
Steve LaBonne
@matt: . Maybe, but a Trump whose policies change by the day is not. Nobody can make long-term business decisions under those conditions.
tobie
I’m glad Liz Dye focuses on John Roberts.
I will never forgive Roberts for the way he has enabled Trump by giving the court’s blessing to whatever the GOP President does from violating the emoluments clause to neglecting due process. He single-handedly has made the President into a sovereign who can do whatever he pleases with us. We’re no longer citizens; we’re subjects according to Roberts. This is what he has wrought. Meanwhile when a Democrat tries to regulate toxins in the air in keeping with the Clean Air Act Roberts calls that “executive overreach.”
YY_Sima Qian
Claims of evidence of insider trading prior to Trump’s announcement yesterday:
Any traders among jackals here?
Last comment is far too naive.
Suzanne
@Bupalos: IIRC, there are Nazis (as well as ordinary Normal Assholes) on Substack, and thus some people want to boycott all of Substack because they provide the platform.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: Well, even if the influences run back to daddy, hopefully this moment will pull off some otherwise clueless FFOTUS voters. And pull off some more in the next moment.
I would still argue that FFOTUS is losing ground for these people to have turned on him in this moment.
We will see as this unfolds. Uncharted territory.
Bupalos
@Belafon: There is a real tangible market value to Trump being forced to climb down, it affirms he isn’t insane in the particular way that markets were coming to believe.
But then there’s the reality that he is still standing up a highly implausible project of radical economists to recast the global trading environment into a kind of bipolar cold war.
WaterGirl
@catclub: Willful ignorance on the part of the press.
They really just transcribe. Most of the mainstream press can no longer be considered journalists. All the journalists are bailing from the mainstream. Or being booted for having the temerity to speak the truth.
Belafon
@WaterGirl: Which makes me worry because at least a normie could catch Krugman in the NYT, or they could catch others at the Washington Post. Most people aren’t going to know to go somewhere else to find dissenting opinion.
Librettist
Portnoy noted on Musk’s cesspool that crypto was marching in lockstep with the broader markets, and um, where was the special sauce?
The crypto-dweebs went ballistic on him.
You hate to see it.
schrodingers_cat
@WaterGirl: Yes, anyone arguing against our current trainwreck is a plus.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@tobie:
My wife calls Moscow Mitch “The Gravedigger of Democracy”.
Roberts is easily part of the gravedigging team.
TS
@oldgold:
It is. There is no-one left writing at the post who isn’t looking for explanations as to why everything trump does is good for something. Most media follow right along
schrodingers_cat
@Steve LaBonne: The mess we are in was baked in when Biden was pushed out by the Democratic party elders after his debate performance.
laura
@Bupalos: Yes, yes it does and here is ABL with a brief ‘splainer: https://www.patreon.com/posts/119943389
Librettist
@WaterGirl:
The goal is to be a bottom feeding C-lister, like Trump. So they see and cover him in an entirely different light.
His lifetime of slutting for media visibility feeds his coverage and veneration among the faithful. Man on teevee would never lie to me, because he’s on teevee.
Bupalos
@Steve LaBonne:
This is certainly true, and beyond it it looks like a signal that the radical economic project of recasting global trade into a bipolar Cold War is actually serious.
yesterday Trump used what I think is a new formulation that will be interesting to watch. He said China takes advantage of the U.S. and other countries.
This would be consistent with actually trying to build an anti-China bloc. The price to any country for joining (which means us dropping our tariffs) may be that the country has to erect their own tariffs against China. The pretext would be that we can’t have a low tariff regime with any country that has a low tariff regime with China, because that would be a back door for Chinese goods into the U.S.
YY_Sima Qian
Surely there is something better for her to be working on?
Between Biden’s 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, EO banning Chinese developed software in vehicles, & Trump’s latest prohibitive tariffs, no Chinese vehicle is coming to the States. Americans can continue to enjoy the freedom to choose between pick ups, SUV, Teslas, a smattering of mediocre offerings from Japanese & Korean marques, & overpriced German marques.
If Slotkin thinks she can outpace the Repubs in the Sinophobia game, she has another thing coming.
The Thin Black Duke
@schrodingers_cat: I disagree. I’m not going to give the assholes who didn’t vote a hall pass for the ongoing dumpster fire we’re experiencing. Trump is a stupid toxic sociopath, and anyone who had more than two brain cells in their skull cavity saw this during his campaign. This wasn’t a difficult decision to make, and if Americans don’t own up to it, it’s going to happen again.
NotMax
@YY_Sima Qian
Wait ’til the all electric Yugo hits the market.
//
schrodingers_cat
@The Thin Black Duke: Actually we are in agreement, I am not giving them a pass at all or forgiving them, their vote. All I am saying is that anyone who is speaking out against Rs right now is a plus. FWIW I think most of them will toe the line.
Belafon
@YY_Sima Qian: I accepted Biden’s tariff only if were seen as a short term block to give US companies a chance to catch up. This meant actively pursuing a new cheaper car. But it would require the government to be involved as well. Now that that’s all gone, I’m close to thinking it’s time to end that.
Belafon
Dow down 1400 now. So that’s 60% of yesterday’s gains.
Urza
Probably a new thread coming but the SAVE act just passed the House and 4 Democrats in support who absolutely need to lose their jobs.
trollhattan
@YY_Sima Qian:
Martha Stewart made sure she had company the entire time.
Steve in the ATL
@NotMax: unfortunately, it has be plugged in to an outlet while operating!
H.E.Wolf
@schrodingers_cat:
Yes. It’s what I think of as Lifeboat Friendships. Getting safely to shore is the top priority.
And recently, I’ve seen:
“De-escalate all conflict that is not with the enemy.”
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian:
With those rules, the PRC will never be able to call Trump. Nobody ever knows when Donny Dementia will sundown or fly off the handle.
NotMax
@Belafon
Jacques Brel, Carousel.
;)
zhena gogolia
@H.E.Wolf: That’s how I feel right now.
New Deal democrat
I accidentally posted this on the wrong thread, so re-posting it here.
This is from the former “Bond King,” Bill Gross, this morning:
https://nitter.poast.org/real_bill_gross/status/1910050319897346552#m
“I ask you, would you want to own highly volatile US stocks whose price depends on whether POTUS had a good night’s sleep and woke up the next morning to reverse yesterday’s policies.”
As an aside, I have learned with Bill Gross that if he is encouraging you to sell, it is because he wants to *buy.*
But in this case, regardless of his trading position, he is stating a fundamental truth. Why would you want to own any financial assets tied to a country ruled for the foreseeable future by a mad king?
And why would you want to try to trade with it? I think the main effect of his temporary reversal is to give other countries time to solidify new trading relationships with each other to the exclusion of the US. T—p almost certainly will go back to touching the hot stove again, because he just can’t help himself. The only question is whether it will be next year, or this afternoon.
Also, reiterating what others have said, Wall Street discovered that lowering average tariffs to just *below* Smoot-Halwey levels isn’t quite the relief it first appeared. And the tape yesterday showed that there was almost certainly huge insider trading based on knowledge of T—-p’s surrender, which massively undercuts trust in the markets.
—-
Also, on John Roberts, he has been doing some very partisan things this week.
First, he signed on to the per curium order as to the detainees held in Texas, which a criminal law scholar wrote that it appeared to be “reverse engineered” to reach a desired result, including flat out ignoring directly on point caselaw *from the Roberts Court itself* that habeas corpus was not the only vehicle for challenging deportations. He also included his usual “trap door” suggesting that the habeas hearings could be held from outside the US territory, I.e., suggesting detainees could be kept in El Salvador during the pendency of the claims.
Then yesterday he “administratively stayed” the orders nullifying T—-p’s firing of two NLRB board members. Normally this is only done to make sure no harm is done during the pendency of any application, but here there is *equal* harm if the NLRB proceeds with anything while two members are wrongfully prevented from participating.
Finally, the habeas application from the detainee admittedly wrongfully sent to El Salvador appears to be receiving the same kind of slow-walk we saw last year in the T—-p vs. US case.
Very disturbing behavior.
trollhattan
@YY_Sima Qian:
Volvo at least is Chinese owned and the Polestar brand EVs, sold here, are built in China by parent company Geely.
NotMax
@Steve in the ATL
Touché.
;)
Bupalos
@laura: It is something of an explainer, but she really doesn’t document or quantify her implicit claim that substack redistributes money from the left to the right. If that was true it would be an issue, though still for me not nearly the issue that algorithmic manipulation is. In general I think the power of “platforming” and “deplatforming” tends to be badly overestimated, especially in comparison to more pernicious “organic” aspects of internet discourse that reinforce things like selection bias.
The nazis are going to get online. We need to stop thinking this can be addressed on the supply side.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bupalos: The PRC is a larger trade partner than the US for 150 of the 200+ countries in the world, & occupies the central position in the global supply chains. What is MAGA offering these countries in return for them to commit economic seppuku? Reduced or delayed punishment? Less frequent extortions? Somewhat lower rent seeking? The privilege of overpaying for US made weapons? The privilege of paying tribute to MAGA in perpetuity (as CEA Chair Miran stated openly)?
I think the below exchange should illuminate how the ROW might actually feel:
I expect many countries to strike “beautiful deals” w/ Trump to buy time, even Mark Carney has shifted tones just a bit, but don’t mistake such delaying tactics (whose purpose is to reduce the short term disruption to their economies while they reorient themselves for the medium to long term), as surrender to MAGA’s coercion.
I highly doubt most of the countries in the world will agreed to high blanket tariffs on PRC imports in such delaying maneuvers. Why put themselves in the very same position the US finds itself in, facing stagflation or recession w/ inflation? Who pass on the opportunity to take their cuts in the pass-through trade from the PRC to the US? Why pass on the opportunity to seize market share in the PRC, vacated by the US? (After all, when the PRC blacklisted Australian beef, barley, coal & wines in 2020, the US was only too eager to fill the vacuum. I doubt the Aussies have forgotten that.) Whatever leverage the PRC has over the US, it is stronger vis-a-vis everyone else (except the EU). These countries could place tariffs on select PRC products to protect the viability of domestic industries, tariffs they would have implemented anyway w/o MAGA drama, & use them to placate Trump for the time being.
Right now, sanewashing the Trumpian retreat on global tariffs is flooding international social media, presenting an embarrassing cave to the stock & bond market (& the PRC hasn’t even started dumping US Treasuries or MBSs) as somehow 4D chess. Don’t fall for the BS.
New Deal democrat
Deleted
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian:
Wall Street certainly isn’t. They’ve apparently done the math, and as I write this stocks are back down 5%, and bond yields have risen a little.
NotMax
@YY_Sima Qian
Saw reports that the main player fleeing U.S. Treasuries was Japan, FWIW.
Melancholy Jaques
These rich assholes that are not happy with Trump’s stupid tariffs would vote for him again tomorrow over any Democrat. If they gave a shit, they’d have given him strong NO TARIFFS! messages before he was inaugurated.
Even if they turn on him publicly, as we have seen with people who worked for him the first time and Republican elites, it will have almost no impact on his overall popularity and no impact on his conduct. He incited a mob to attack the congress to overthrow the government and suffered no consequences. What is it that people think he won’t do?
Old School
@Urza: Made me look.
Quicksand
@trollhattan: Some Volvo-branded cars as well. The 2016 XC60 my wife owned was built in China, and the reason the China-built EX30 is so delayed in the US is they had to bring up a production line in Ghent.
The two Volvos we own now were built in Sweden and Belgium.
Yeah we’ve been a Volvo family for a while!
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1586485091
And I do enjoy sushi and lattes as well.
West of the Rockies
@WaterGirl:
God, I loathe the word “influencer.” But we are presently stuck with it.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: Hence the impasse. But the vibe here in the PRC, at least for the time being, is that people don’t really care one way or the other. If Trump wants to talk? Fine. If Trump wants to fight? Fine.
Through the trade & tech wars from Trump 45 to Biden, the overwhelming sentiment is that of defiance against US pressure, & over the past 1.5 years, increasing confidence. No sense of panic, distraught, rage, or disquiet. Even exporters w/ high exposure to the US market are mostly taking it in stride, immediately working on channels for rerouting, seeking customer elsewhere, or preparing to get out of the export game altogether.
The only dissenters to the consensus are thoroughly marginalized regime critics (be they liberals, conservatives, libertarians, or reactionaries).
YY_Sima Qian
@NotMax: Yep, saw that too, Japanese investors covering their unhedged positions (if I correctly understood what I read).
Bupalos
@YY_Sima Qian: Oh I’m not commenting on the likely success of the U.S. creating a bipolar economic world, I’ve just seen enough now that I think that really is a serious project that the main economic wing inside the administration really is seeking to pursue.
If I were to comment on it, I’d say that Navarro et al are being wildly optimistic when they say there is “narrow path” that could lead to success and that what these economists are missing are human realities. But at the same time I think what we might miss in just saying NFW is that there are other tools and assets they could offer or withhold, military protection in an increasingly destabilized world being the biggest. Also we may be neglecting the reality that politics in many of the wealthy countries looks a lot like ours. Global anxiety around the existing economic system can and will be weaponized by similar politicians in coming years.
But in general I’d bet on no, that won’t “work,” but I think they really are going down that road for now.
I can recommend the recent Ezra Klein, mid March I think, with the head of the FT. She’s very familiar with the relevant players here and really doesn’t even seem to question that they are in earnest.
Shakti
There’s obviously people and companies doing insider trading and shorting STONKS and BONDS.
And these people need to GTFO Substack, I’m sorry.
The regime is doing everything to push any wages I earn way down, fuck up anything that’s in the stock market like retirement funds, make everything I buy like necessities much more expensive and harder to get down to small pleasures, and rip away any protections that might have existed for all kinds of things.
I can only do as much as I can to not give money to people who want this to happen (because market cornering etc) and as long as Substack money goes to the Bari Weisses of the world, it’s not getting a penny or a click from me. Because subscriptions and eyeballs are totally fucking optional and i have so much competition for my frazzled attention span.
YY_Sima Qian
@trollhattan:
@Quicksand:
No more PRC made vehicles in the US, but that is why Geely built up the production base in SC, to make Volves & Polestars in the US for the US market.
I do wonder about the BYD factory in CA making electric buses, surely some of the key components are still sourced from the PRC. Maybe they will reroute the components through Vietnam or Malaysia, or even the EU.
Ruckus
@artem1s:
My father worked in building manufacturing tooling and I followed in his footsteps. If I listed the tools we made which created plastic products most people would know the products and a good number of the companies that purchased them. And one of the things that most companies wanted was not to pay too much for those tools because we have a fairly competitive market place for goods that people want. One of the reasons that much of what our products made would be known to most people is that they made products that many, many people see daily. And we had a manufacturing community that created those products. But with our labor costs always going upwards and other countries like say China with much lower labor costs the only thing that kept businesses like ours going was the shipping cost to get things from say China. And with shitforbrains raising tariffs, etc the only change is going to be much higher costs for the people to purchase goods like food or household products. You know, those things that you buy regularly. When the market sets prices it is often within the grasp of most people or the market prices itself out of business. When the manufacturing market has a much lower cost basis – for whatever reason, manufacturing will go there. And our manufacturing sector gets smaller and smaller. And often more and more expensive. Where upon we become a nation that begs for more at a lower cost, from other nations. Which of course screws any idea of an independent national economy. IOW we have to depend on other countries to provide the every day products which can easily cause fewer products, some of which will actually be necessary. And we are/have been on this road for a while. And people like shitforbrains make this worse, for a couple reasons. First he’s an idiot about normal life (and many other things…), normal life being that we all use products of one sort or another and his concepts raise those costs. I think mainly because he’s a buffoon who thinks (such as it is) that he’s smarter than anyone else. He’s not even close. And if nothing else – aging out. Some like him because of what (they think….) he is or because he MUST BE smart – he has MONEY. And then, he proves exactly who and what he is, in front of everyone.
Aw humanity, such wide ranging concepts of truth, power, money, stupidity, and pompous arrogance.
No Nym
@piratedan: Repeated shocks and threat of shocks to put citizens in a submissive stance.
Paul in KY
@schrodingers_cat: Unfortunately, I fear you are right.
NotMax
@Shakti
Single item not necessarily indicative but a 25 lb sack of bread flour at Costco 125% the price it was a month ago.
schrodingers_cat
@Paul in KY: I have seen this movie before. And not that long ago.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bupalos: Yes, economic decoupling from the PRC has long had strong proponents among MAGA, & beyond MAGA, & beyond the Repubs. Some of them will want to seal that outcome, whether or not MAGA can convince any part of the world to come along. I think Trump himself is agnostic, he just wants his “beautiful deal” he can credit himself w/, & assert dominance over others in the interaction.
Obama’s TPP was the less aggressive version of the play, & Biden’s tech war was the more aggressive version.
However, if that was the play, MAGA shouldn’t have tried to levy punitive tariffs over the entire world, threatened the sovereignties of military allies, & undermine the political stabilities of European partners. Even then, it would have been an extraordinarily difficult endeavor fighting against economic gravity, led by an incompetent crew. Now, the US no longer has allies, except maybe El Salvador & Argentina.
BlueGuitarist
@Urza:
The 4 Dems voting for the voter suppression act aka save republicans from fair elections
HI-01 Ed Case – by far the bluest district, egregious, no excuse,
ME-02 – Jared Golden – most Trump district with D representative
TX-28 Henry Cuellar – corrupt,
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez – Trump district
senate filibuster likely
“MAGA’s so-called ‘SAVE’ Act will make it harder for tens of millions of eligible Americans to vote, including tens of millions of people, mostly women, who change their names after marriage,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told Democracy Docket”
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/house-passes-save-act-voter-suppression-law/
NickM
There’s apparently an important US 30-yield bond auction taking place at 1pm. It will apparently signal if US credit is taking a hit. The 2000 point loss so far could turn to a rout — the S&P is only 1% away from triggering a circuit breaker. Although I still have some of my life savings in stock, I’m still rooting for injuries — MAGA destroying the economy before they consolidate power may be the only thing that bails us out.
Melancholy Jaques
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m inclined to agree. I mean, it’s not like they are really against his radical assault on democracy.
Shakti
Aside: Man, I’m beginning to feel like my eleventy plus adblocks and paywall workarounds for convenience and not fucking up my internet disabled devices are some kind of political stance now. Like fuck their ad spaces and affiliate links and popover whatever to sell me expensive planned obsolent crap.
Like broke ass depression logic and hoarding is praxis now.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
The editorial coverage at the Post has been very, very negative about his tariff shenanigans. Claiming it isn’t changes nothing.
Paul in KY
@The Thin Black Duke: Agree.
Ruckus
@YY_Sima Qian:
If the parts of the products are made elsewhere and shipped here, most people would never, ever know that. Now that can be changed by statute of say what percentage has to be made in the selling country, but that takes an effort and knowledge of manufacturing, shipping, pricing, selling, profits.
Geminid
@piratedan: I’m wondering if you have heard of JoAnna Mendoza. She’s running against Rep. Juan Cisco in AZ06, you’re old stomping grounds. I saw an item in Politico Playbook the other day reporting that Ms. Mendoza has already raised $800,000 for next year’s contest. She was described as a Navy and Marine Corps veteran.
Ed. I checked out JoAnna JoAnna Mendoza’s very active social media account. There was nothing about being a Navy vet, but Mendoza was a Drill Instructor for the Marine Corps, her son plays catcher for a local Little League team, and she shows Juan Ciscomani no mercy.
zhena gogolia
@Shakti: Yes, and my parents would be so proud.
trollhattan
Clearing up the typical confusion over what the WH means vs. what it says: 145% That’s a 1 followed by a 4 and then, 5.
Paul in KY
@Fair Economist: They would have to give him a script and he would have to follow it…so no meeting ever with PRC leader.
Can’t say I blame them.
schrodingers_cat
@New Deal democrat: Are you a lawyer or an economist?
UncleEbeneezer
We (everyone on the Left in any/every space*) also need to stop encouraging, defending and acting like that shit is virtuous just because they use a Progressive cause that we agree with as their cover. It’s the oldest ratfucking trick in the book.
* Not referring to you
Peke Daddy
@YY_Sima Qian:
Thank goodness we will be protected from horrors like this.
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/09/byd-announces-price-cut-on-seagull-now-7800/
Steve LaBonne
@Shakti: To read important commentators like Richardson and Krugman one need only visit their Substack page once, to sign up for their free emails. If you want to punish them simply for being on Substack, first of all you aren’t doing that because you don’t need to give them money to read the bulk of their stuff, and second you are cutting off your nose to spite your face.
YY_Sima Qian
@Peke Daddy: I’ve been eyeing it for the cheap commuter for my family, but the smart driving version is more attractive. Chinese traffic is complex, & exhausting.
Jackie
nebber mind
Bupalos
@YY_Sima Qian: I think this little bout of seeming insanity was initially intended to focus other countries’ attentions on what they had to lose and how precarious their situation was, in preparation for this attempt at bipolar alignment by negotiation. A kind of shock and awe and destabilization. Kind of like they want to pull bad-cop/good-cop and are hoping the suspect won’t fixate on the fact that it’s not just two cops with the same intent, it’s literally just the same cop.
I agree this is all profoundly chaotic and poorly aimed, but I would caution people not to underestimate the degree to which there is a level of global anxiety emerging from the existing system that makes it also fairly implausible that the status quo holds, and once it doesn’t a lot of our existing assumptions may have to change. The lady from FT does a good job making the point that the overall world-view within which we judge this scheme to be fucking nuts may itself be in a pattern of rapid change.
YY_Sima Qian
@trollhattan: 54% 104% 125% 145% At that point the number is meaningless in terms of impact of trade flows. Diminishing returns has gone to 0. Trump can raise it to 400% 1M% Whatever number he fancies.
laura
@Bupalos: choose your sources, but maybe look a bit deeper https://www.anildash.com/2024/11/19/dont-call-it-a-substack/
Steve LaBonne
@YY_Sima Qian: It makes him feel manly and strong, like a 4 year old boy throwing a tantrum.
Paul in KY
@Melancholy Jaques: I do not think he will pull a Napoleon and crown himself emperor. Beyond that, I don’t know.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bupalos: A lot of this is post hoc revisionism in this specific case. But the perceived status quo will not hold, Trump or not.
That was one of my main criticisms of Biden’s FP, still trying to hold on to the international system once defined by US primacy & Western privilege, after reality had already moved on.
Peale
@Peke Daddy: I mean, I’m not the target market, sure. But no to a car that looks like it has been painted by a student cramming for an exam. That’s not yellow. It’s YELLLLLLOOOOOW!
Doug R
@Bupalos:
That theory would be great except Canada raised their tariffs to match the USA on Chinese EVs and we got hit with auto tariffs. And a doubling of the softwood lumber tariff.
Paul in KY
@schrodingers_cat: Yup. It scored -1% on Rotten Tomatos. God help us all.
BlueGuitarist
Aaron Fritschner:
“After getting ‘assurances’ from Republican leaders that there would be enormous cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, House Republican holdouts flipped to back the Senate budget resolution, which just passed. Republican nays are Massie and Spartz.” All Ds vote no.
YY_Sima Qian
@Ruckus: The shambolic Trump gang, & the degraded USG in general, is probably incapable of enforcing such complex content & place of origin rules now.
Old School
Gloria DryGarden
@Librettist: so apt:
YY_Sima Qian
@Doug R: & retaliatory tariffs from the PRC just a couple of weeks ago, to boot, for the 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Gloria DryGarden
@Old School: well then. They need to be consistent.. I’m hoping the pregnant person is considered a person…
trollhattan
@Old School:
As an example of “trying to have it both ways” this sets a new high bar, Olympics-level height.
“We will do anything for the unborn, anything. Except pay for them, that’s not even in the Bible.”
Kirk
@Bupalos: In broad brush it’s the Nazi bar analogy.
It’s also a strong echo of the Twitter Free Speech claim. That is, “we promote and exercise free speech and that means hearing speech you don’t like.” The counterpoint is that they do block pornography and hate speech. From their policy, Substack cannot be used to publish content or fund initiatives that incite violence based on protected classes. Offending behavior includes credible threats of physical harm to people based on their race, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, age, disability or medical condition.”
Bottom line there’s fair reason to believe they’re, well, a Nazi bar. And supporting them by giving them money is funding the Nazis.
I really like some of the people posting there – Watergirl’s post shows some. But it doesn’t change the fact I think it’s a Nazi bar, and as a result I don’t send money there and do my best to see the articles second-hand and not by direct link.
Steve LaBonne
@trollhattan: And here I thought someone they supposedly follow said “You cannot serve God and Mammon”. I don’t recall anything in there about an escape clause.
jonas
@tobie: For the past 50 years movement conservatism has been focused like a laser on the courts, particularly SCOTUS — and they won. Progressives, the Democratic Party — everyone — needs to be focused the same way going forward. It doesn’t matter if the people elect more Democrats if activist right-wing judges and SCOTUS just shoot everything down. Witness Biden’s attempt to cancel student debt, e.g.
Doug R
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, canola and pork IIRC.
jonas
@Old School: Kind of how like slaves were complete non-persons with regards to their own bodies and labor, but 3/5 of a human when it came to apportionment.
For Republicans, all fetuses are Schrödinger Embryos — either a person or not a person depending on if money’s at stake. But you don’t know until you measure it in a courtroom.
piratedan
@Geminid: I have not heard of Ms. Mendoza, it will be interesting to see how the GOP smear machine approaches her. Ciscomani was able to hold on thanks to DJT being on the ballot, he won’t have this cover this time. They were able to paint his opponent (Kristin Engel) as being for open borders because enough guys in wide brimmed hats with badges said it was so…. and it had that dynamic played out as tough man type protecting against rabid radical with her ideas of putting more burdens on the little guy.
I wish her well in going against Ciscomani as that seat is gettable.
I’ved moved to VA CD-1 where there’s a very slick GOP (Whittman) in the seat where he does a fair bit of community outreach with his staff in the district, I am busy making him aware of my presence via letters and e-mails that while he can co-sign onto any reasonable legislation he wishes, but his votes continuing the disenfranchisement of voters is being watched.
Steve LaBonne
@jonas: That’s how we’ve always known that opposition to abortion is about misogyny, not a tender concern for embryos. Watch what they do, not what they say.
Librettist
@trollhattan:
The Village is confused because their 401Ks are getting hammered. All they heard was Orange man promising to get the serfs back under the boot…
Geminid
@piratedan: AZ06 can run pictures of law enforcement in broad-brimmed cowboy hats talking about the border; Mendoza is already countering with pictures of herself in a broad-brimmed Drill Instructor hat, talking about the values she instilled in young Marines. I think this will be a fun campaign to watch.
Bill Arnold
Speaking of Golden (bold mine):
Trump’s new loyalty test: “golden Trump bust lapel pins” (Jason Weisberger, Apr 9, 2025)
WaterGirl
@West of the Rockies: Do you prefer power player?
WaterGirl
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Washington Post or New York Post?
karen gail
I have long wondered why China seems to be main target; for years the Pentagon has been harping on having a war with China, no idea why.
Anyone know why China seems to be the monster to destroy?
Geminid
@piratedan: Rob Wittman is slick indeed, but he’ll have to work hard next year to win reelection. I think VA01 is rated around R+6, but it has a lot of federal workers.
Jackie
@Gloria DryGarden:
Incubator. According to Vance.
brantl
@Belafon: Normies, by large don’t read the New York Times or the Post.
karen gail
@Josie: I am old enough to remember when football wasn’t a big deal; hell, Dad was friends with Green Bay Packers players and they made very little money from playing, most of it came from their “real” jobs.
In high school there was a football team, but there were no pep rallies, no cheerleaders and the band rarely played during a game much less marching at half time.
Melancholy Jaques
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Our experience shows that negative editorials have almost no impact on that asshole’s popularity or his conduct. At the same time, sane-washing him, adopting his framing of every issue, and burying negative stories on the news side has given us a nation where the great mass of voters have no idea what he is doing or how it affects them or why it is bad.
Kirk
@karen gail:
Because it’s our unallied hegenomic challenger.
China is the second largest economy in the world. China has the largest military in the world. China tends to move in opposition to us instead of cooperating with us in hegenomic affairs. So do nations such as Russia and North Korea, but China is the big one.
scav
@Jackie: Ah, so while for business purposes, to Xian hospitals, the babies don’t as people and the dead mothers can be written off as damage to equipment.
Josie
@karen gail:
I guess that was the difference (among other things) between Wisconsin and Texas. ;-)
Ocotillo
@Old School:
Cuellar is in trouble with the DOJ and may also be angling for a move to the red team. District is on the Mexican border and might be hard to hang on to since that area got Trumpier, although by 2026 by the time the ahole is done, should stay blue.
WhatsMyNym
@Peke Daddy:Sadly that is priced for the market (Teslas are much cheaper in China as well).
Melancholy Jaques
@Ocotillo:
No doubt about it. Those of us on the left side of our party urged the PTBs to let him lose, but they insisted he had to be our guy.
catclub
@YY_Sima Qian:
Last comment is far too naive.
Well, unless you say the person going to prison will be the one who reported on who did it.
Belafon
@brantl: Depending on your definition of normie. I would consider people who pick up a newspaper or just listen to the broadcast stations normies.
I don’t consider myself a Trekkie (I can’t describe more than a few episodes of some of the series, I haven’t jumped into the Paramount+ stuff, etc.), but I know far more about Star Trek than most of the people around me and they tend to tell me I am one.
Belafon
@Josie: During the Cowboy’s dominance of the NFC East in the 70s and 80s, the pastor let the church out early because the championship game was going to start around noon.
tobie
@jonas: We have to focus. And we have to beat back bullshit. The idea that the working class was suffering under the Biden admin was ground the left should never have conceded….above all because it was untrue. Wages were up 19%, inflation was down 2%, American robust consumerism drove the national and international recovery. Shame on everyone, including Harris and the Walz, who ran away from this record. We shot ourselves in the foot.
Steve Vladek posted an interesting chart. SCOTUS has upheld one TRO against the Trump admin and vacated 5. Pretty clear indication of where they stand.
MisterForkbeard
@Bill Arnold: Literally a golden idol. For fuck’s sake Republicans, have some respect for yourself and your own religion.
Bupalos
@Kirk: Maybe I just don’t know how it actually works. The folks I visit there (basically just Timothy Snyder) don’t force you to pay, I think there are just a couple of perks if you do, and I thought the writer just pocketed that money with an assumed cut for the platform. But I don’t use the platform in a way that puts any other content in front of me, and I didn’t know that was even a possibility. Do people just “go to substack” and see what’s being promoted? Is it really true that the right is subsidized more than the left out of some common pool?
I’m not sure the Nazi bar thing actually makes that much sense to me as an analogy here. Twitter is an entirely different story in at least two major ways.
Also with apologies to ABL, I do think a Nazi bar would be a fairly good place to fight fascism.
Geminid
@Melancholy Jaques: Democratic voters in TX28 also had their say. It was a close primary and Cuellar beat Jessico Cisneros by less than 300 votes in the runoff. I don’t think Cisneros would have won in November, but we’ll never know. Cisneros ran 7 points ahead of VP Harris in November, I think.
JustRuss
That’s “Dread Justice Roberts” to you.
Old School
Ben Wikler is stepping down as Wisconsin Democratic Chair to “take a breath.”
He will serve out his term through June.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Melancholy Jaques: I’d say that’s demonstrably false. Consumers of the MSM voted for Harris overwhelmingly. In contrast, the people who went to Trump don’t read newspapers. They get their news from online randos or Fox.
JML
@Old School: It can be an exhausting job. bummer for WisDems; they finally seemed t have the right guy in the job. But if he’s going to step out, right after spring elections is the right time to do it, even the party plenty of time to get the next guy in before the big election season in 2026.
me
Trump doesn’t rule out extending 90-day tariff pause: Live updates
Looking to see how many times the suckers can be baited.
(they nibbled but weren’t hooked)
Miss Bianca
@Old School:
So, an “unborn person” *isn’t* actually a person if it costs a Catholic hospital some money?
This wonderful world!//
me
The FDA is on the verge of collapse.
oklahomo
@Jackie: A nice euphemism for axolotl tank.
WaterGirl
@me: I know, I know, pick me!
RevRick
@bbleh: @WaterGirl:
A Subsume of Substacks?
WaterGirl
@bbleh: Smattering
@RevRick: Subsume
Excellent suggestions!
cain
@me:
If I were other countries I would go ahead and do the reciprocal tariffs. No point trying to figure out what he wants to do. Punish us now and then see if he cries. You got to stop coddling this guy.
Weaken him good.
cain
@Melancholy Jaques: until utter collapse happens and the world suddenly changes and the U.S. is no longer important.
I don’t think they can convince the public that this is Biden’s fault or Dems given that no Dem has power.
Trump isn’t done. Plenty of chaos to continue both within and externally. This country is going to find out.
Ruckus
@YY_Sima Qian:
Probably? I’m thinking this is in the range of a Las Vegas casino having a probability of making money. Which is a rather high range. Like getting rather close to absolute.
cain
@BlueGuitarist: why the fuck would they vote for a bill that will guarantee them to not be elected?
George
@catclub:
Having worked for a supervisor who destroyed a functioning program area because he made up non-existent crises, then who “fixed” it and took credit for the program area working (less) well than it previously had, I attest to the fact that this is a strategy of many psychopaths these days, FFOTUS included.
What amazed me is that upper management, in the case noted above, never figured it out, just as mainstream media now seem unable to understand tactics used by FFOTUS.
WaterGirl
@George: It’s the Peter Principle.
NobodySpecial
The copium on all those Substacks is overwhelming. Ok, Trump is weak. Ok, Trump is losing steam. Prove it. His party and the Supreme Court won’t stop him, and that’s the only effective brake on him.
He will do what he wants when he wants until the GOP actually does something. Dems have no power here until 2026.
dnfree
@Jerry: James Fallows is on Substack and he is not a Nazi.
dnfree
@schrodingers_cat: If Biden had looked realistically at his ABILITY to serve effectively as president for the next four years, and not decided to run for another term, we wouldn’t be here. I don’t know where we WOULD be, but it would be different from this.
different-church-lady
HE’S ALWAYS LOOKED CRAZY AND INCOMPETENT!
different-church-lady
@dnfree: It’s perfectly possible we’d be right here.
different-church-lady
@WaterGirl: Goddamn these guys are stupid…
OGJerry
@Jerry: I’m on Substack and not a Nazi. I keep seeing other people say the same thing but I have not encountered a Substack Nazi on the platform. YMMV
ETA: What WaterGirl said.