“Special” Envoy LTG (ret) Kellogg has had a stroke of genius. And by stroke of genius I mean absolutely stupid idea.
Many comments come to mind, but what stands out distinctively is how the British and French flags are placed far from the russian border. Bravery outsourced, as usual—locals suffering while others draw the maps.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Never “divide” and “Ukraine” in the same sentence.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 5:07 PM
From The Times:
President Trump’s envoy to Ukraine has said the country could be partitioned “almost like Berlin after World War Two” as part of a peace deal.
General Keith Kellogg, a leading figure in US efforts to end the three-year war, suggested that British and French troops could adopt zones of control in the west of the country as part of a “reassurance force”, with Russia’s army in the occupied east. Between them would be Ukrainian forces and a demilitarised zone.
Kellogg, 80, said the Anglo-French-led force west of the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine from north to south and runs through Kyiv, would “not be provocative at all” to Moscow. He said Ukraine was a big enough country to accommodate several armies seeking to enforce a ceasefire.
“You could almost make it look like what happened with Berlin after World War Two, when you had a Russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a US zone,” he said.
“You’re west of the [Dnipro], which is a major obstacle,” Kellogg said. He later clarified that America would not be providing any ground forces. He suggested that a demilitarised zone of 18 miles could be implemented along the existing lines of control in the east.
Implicit in the general’s plan of how to move from a ceasefire to an enduring peace settlement is US acknowledgment of Russia’s de facto control over the land they currently occupy.
More at the link.
Kellogg has already come out and walked this back.
Witkoff’s insanity: He told Trump that the fastest way to a deal is handing Russia full control over 4 Ukrainian regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
Trump ally Keith Kellogg pushed back, saying Ukraine will never agree to unilaterally surrender land
www.reuters.com/world/trump-…
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) April 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
From Reuters:
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) – Less than 48 hours after dining with a negotiator sent by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Washington last week, Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy leading talks with Moscow, sat down with President Donald Trump in the White House and delivered a clear message.
The fastest way to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, said Witkoff, was to support a strategy that would give Russia ownership of four eastern Ukrainian regions it attempted to annex illegally in 2022, two U.S. officials and five people familiar with the situation told Reuters.
It was a point Witkoff had made previously – and publicly in a podcast interview with conservative media personality Tucker Carlson last month – but one that Kyiv has repeatedly rejected and that some U.S. and European officials have dismissed as a maximalist Russian demand.
In the meeting with Trump, General Keith Kellogg, the president’s Ukraine envoy, pushed back against Witkoff, saying Ukraine, though willing to negotiate some terms related to disputed land, would never agree to unilaterally cede total ownership of the territories to Russia, said two of the sources.
The meeting ended without Trump making a decision to change the U.S. strategy. Witkoff traveled to Russia Friday to meet Putin.
Trump administration officials are increasingly at odds over how to break the deadlock between Ukraine and Russia, with Witkoff and Kellogg – who favors more direct support for Ukraine – disagreeing on the best course forward, according to the U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter and four Western diplomats who are in touch with administration officials.
Witkoff’s office, the National Security Council, the State Department, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and the Russian Embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment.
In a break with normal security procedures, Witkoff had invited Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian envoy who is under U.S. sanctions following Russia’s invasion, to his personal residence for dinner before the White House meeting.
That set off alarms inside the White House and the State Department, according to two people familiar with the situation. U.S. officials avoid hosting officials from Russia – which has sophisticated intelligence capabilities – to their homes.
The dinner was rescheduled and took place at the White House instead.
Witkoff, an old friend of Trump’s who has helped secure key diplomatic victories for the president, has garnered some support from the Republican Party’s Ukraine skeptics but his proposals have stoked outrage among other Republicans who believe the administration has turned too sharply toward Moscow.
Some Republicans on Capitol Hill were so concerned about Witkoff’s apparent pro-Russia stance in the Carlson interview that several called National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio afterward to complain, according to a person familiar with the calls.
More at the link.
This is never going to happen. Neither President Zelenskyy, nor anyone who is a viable successor to him, would agree to this. It would be political suicide. It would also condemn hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to Russian tyranny and all the genocidal punishment that will come with it.
The quickest way to end the war is to surrender, sure. But Ukraine has never needed, nor will it ever need, Witkoff for that. If surrender were ever on the table, we’d handle it ourselves, but it is not, and it seems Trump’s special envoy refuses to acknowledge that.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 2:40 PM
There’s another issue here. The US does not have anything close to a coherent policy, let alone strategy to achieve it.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Today, I Visited the Dnipro Region, Kryvyi Rih – Address by the President
11 April 2025 – 18:53
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, I visited the Dnipro region, Kryvyi Rih. I honored the memory of those killed by a Russian ballistic missile strike – exactly one week ago. 19 people were killed by a Russian missile, including 9 children. I’m now in a shelter at the very school where three of those children studied – tragically, they were killed. That same day, there was also a Shahed drone attack, which claimed even more lives. Eternal memory to them all.
Today, from right here in Kryvyi Rih, I addressed the participants of the Ramstein meeting in Brussels. Our top priority is air defense: additional systems and missiles for them – to protect lives and our cities. We are counting on our partners’ decisions. The world has the necessary systems, and what’s needed is a political decision for them to work here in Ukraine – in Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and many other cities and communities. We discussed this with the President of the United States, President Trump – Ukraine is not just asking, we are ready to purchase these additional systems. Only powerful weapons can truly be relied upon to protect life when you have a neighbor like Russia. So that Ukrainian children can study safely – simply in schools, not online but in person, in a normal way – like in America, like across Europe – and not in such underground classrooms, which may provide greater safety, but which should not be the norm anywhere, but simply in schools. Air defense is our first priority. I thank all our partners who are already helping.
There will also be substantial new funding for electronic warfare systems – that’s an additional 540 million hryvnias. I have instructed the Government to adopt a decision and enhance the protection. There is already a decision regarding additional funding for our frontline communities, for the communities along the border with Russia, for those that are constantly under strikes and shelling. Up to ten million hryvnias for each of these communities depending on the number of people living there. And this will not be a one-time payment – we plan to provide this kind of regular support to cover the priority needs of the communities, to help with shelters, transport, and other solutions for protecting people. Today, we talked with representatives of the communities of the Dnipro region – I want to thank all of them. I am grateful to everyone who stands with the people, who provides help and protection. I also visited our warriors who are recovering from their wounds. I am grateful to every doctor who saves our soldiers. I am grateful to everyone who remembers – every person matters, every person makes a difference, every person must do their part so that Ukraine preserves its strength. Thank you!
Glory to Ukraine!
He also addressed the latest Ramstein format contact group:
Georgia:
This is how you carry the Georgian flag across the blocked Rustaveli avenue. ❤️✊
This is the 135th consecutive day of the #GeorgiaProtests
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 1:32 PM
1/ Russia has sentenced Gela Beglarishvili, a Georgian fighting against Russia in Ukraine, to 14 years in prison in absentia.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:47 AM
2/ His wife, Rusudan Ivaneishvili, a sniper also fighting against Russia, is also facing trial in absentia by Russian authorities.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:47 AM
3/ In April 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky awarded Beglarishvili and Ivaneishvili for their bravery.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:47 AM
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 5:15 PM
1/ On April 10 The UK has sanctioned four more high-ranking Georgian officials for their role in allowing serious human rights violations in response to legitimate protests in Georgia since 2024.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:46 AM
2/ “Our sanctions show the UK will not accept such a blatant lack of accountability by those in charge, and will continue to consider all options available to us until Georgia reverses its current trajectory”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:46 AM
3/ “We stand with the people of Georgia and their constitutional right to fundamental freedoms and to pursue a European path” – Said Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:46 AM
4/ With today’s action, the UK is the first state to sanction Georgia’s General Prosecutor and the Head of the Special Investigatory Service for failing in their positions to properly investigate those responsible for serious violence.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:46 AM
The US:
The new mineral deal provides no security guarantees for Ukraine and requires Ukraine to repay all previously received aid.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/w…
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 1:08 PM
From The New York Times:
The new proposal, reviewed by The New York Times, reverts to Mr. Trump’s initial demand that Ukraine repay the United States for the billions it has received in military and financial aid since Russia’s invasion three years ago.
As in earlier proposals, Ukraine would have to contribute half its revenue from natural resource projects — including critical minerals, oil and gas, as well as related infrastructure such as ports and pipelines — to a U.S.-controlled investment fund. Profits from the fund would be reinvested in Ukrainian natural resource projects, though the exact share of such profit remained unclear.
The new draft also echoes earlier versions by omitting any mention of security guarantees for Ukraine, a provision that Kyiv had long pressed for and managed to include in a draft last month — but one that Washington had long resisted.
The new proposal includes stricter terms than earlier drafts: Washington would claim all profit from the fund until Kyiv repaid at least the equivalent of the U.S. aid received during the war plus 4 percent annual interest.
The United States also would retain a “right of first offer” on new projects and the power to veto sales of Ukrainian resources to third countries. And in the first year of the agreement, Ukraine would be prohibited from offering any investment projects to third parties with better financial or economic terms than those offered to the United States.
The fund would be controlled by the International Development Finance Corporation, a U.S. government agency responsible for investing in companies and projects abroad. The agency would nominate three board members — while Ukraine would have only two — and would oversee each project where earnings from the fund are invested.
This is also not going to happen.
Estonia:
Video of the tanker KIWALA of the Russian shadow fleet.
After the detention, the vessel provided a flag certificate, but a representative of Djibouti said that the vessel is not listed in their register. There is also no information about the owner. www.postimees.ee/8228269/foto…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Gulf of Finland vibes right now
why that unflagged rust bucket tramp steamer was sailing thru Estonian EEZ instead of intl waters?
— Aki Heikkinen (@akihheikkinen.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Lithuania:
Lithuania plans to allocate an additional €20 million for the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine, announced the country’s Defense Minister, Dovilė Šakalienė.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Back to Ukraine.
🇬🇧🇺🇦 British Prince Harry arrived in Ukraine unannounced today, The Telegraph reports.
He visited the wounded soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who are being treated in one of the Lviv hospitals.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 10, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Prince Harry made an unannounced visit to Ukraine, where he met with veterans recovering from injuries. During his visit, he went to the Superhumans Center in Lviv, a clinic providing care and rehabilitation for wounded soldiers and civilians.
apnews.com/article/prin…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 12:09 PM
🇬🇧🇺🇦 Prince Harry has been given Easter as a gift – the flour for it was milled from the harvest from demined Ukrainian fields.
He received such a gift from Economics Minister Yuliya Sviridenko during his visit to Ukraine.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
The reason:
💙😍 Mortar man Andriy has been giving his favorite girl flowers from the front line for two years. More than 25 bouquets from Bakhmut, Chasovy Yar, Toretsk, Kordyumovka and Ivanovskoye. Each bouquet has its own story.
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 12:15 PM
When the US suggests that EU will provide security guarantees, it reminds me of a post-Soviet joke:
Two businessmen meet. One says to the other:
— Do you need a railcar of sugar?
— Of course I doAnd they part ways: one goes off to find the sugar, the other to find the money
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Kryvyi Rih:
🇺🇦🕯 Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Kryvyi Rih and paid tribute to the victims.
On April 4, a russian ballistic missile struck near houses and a playground, killing 19 people, 9 of whom were children.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Kharkiv:
The air raid alerts have gone back up while I’ve been drafting the post:
03:50 AM. Air raid alert in Kharkiv. Russian drones are approaching the city.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ russian drones again
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Today, the russian army shelled a kindergarten and a medical facility.
The Izium, Bohodukhiv, and Kupiansk districts of the Kharkiv region came under fire. Four people were injured.Russia keeps terrorizing Kharkiv every single day.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 7:53 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
For those wondering, TaMara moved her overnight post back about a half an hour since I was late getting this done tonight. I’ve been prepping food for tomorrow night’s seder, which is why I was delayed.
Mathguy
Every day bring more embarrassment to our country courtesy of the morons and jackasses that 49% of the electorate thought would bring down the price of eggs.
YY_Sima Qian
A couple of days ago I shared links to interviews by former PRC state media report Chai Jing with PRC (& ROC) citizens fight on both sides of the War in Ukraine. Unfortunately the content was in Chinese, only.
Now there is an English translation of the interview transcript, Part I below, focused on PRC citizens fighting for Russia.
Part II soon to follow.
YY_Sima Qian
At least Kellogg didn’t hand over Odesa to Russia. His proposal is a recipe for Russia eventually seizing everything east of the Dnipro.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: The reporting is muddled, but I think this is Witkoff’s suggestion, which he got from the Russians.
They’ve managed to take the strategic incoherence of the Biden team and make it worse.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks.
Thor Heyerdahl
Rinse and repeat across the entire T—p abomination
Westyny
Thank you, Adam, and Chag Pesach Sameach!
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Oh, they are leaning into the incoherence. While Witkoff is proposing to dismember Ukraine & concede everything to Putin, Bessent is demanding that the EU align w/ the US economically to decouple from the PRC (& commit economic seppuku together in the process). This is Hitler in the bunker level of unreality.
Jay
As always thank you Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Medicine Man
Thank you, Adam.
I’ve heard speculation that Ukraine could disable the port facilities russia uses to export their crude oil but refrains from doing so due to the international condemnation they’d face. The rest of the world still wants russian oil on the market, albeit under a price cap.
As trump’s tariffs slow global commerce, the demand on oil drops, along with the price. I wonder at what point global demand drops far enough that Ukrainians may think about striking the ports.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you, Adam. Enjoy tomorrow’s seder.