Sally Jenkins, at the Washington Post [gift link]:
Events such as the Olympics and World Cup are among the biggest projects on earth, bigger than mega-dams or tunnel digs, and like any large structures you don’t build on poor soil, or they’ll collapse. They require stability, years of careful planning, and billions of dollars in commitments. The hosts-organizers have a duty — to both visitors and their own constituents — to be stable, hospitable ground, capable enough to bear the costs, and to have contingencies for “black swan events,” the term for unpredictable, high-impact occurrences.
The problem for the United States, which is slated to host next year’s World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics, is that so far President Donald Trump’s second term is itself a black swan.
The World Cup opens in North America on June 11, 2026, with the United States as co-host with Mexico and Canada, the latter which Trump has threatened to annex as a 51st state. Who knows what the condition of the country will be on that date, with our pitching and yawing markets, or what our relations will be with our two border neighbors. In March, when FIFA President Gianni Infantino visited the White House, Trump was asked whether rising international anger over his veering, aggressive policies might affect the World Cup. He replied, “Oh, I think it’s going to make it more exciting. Tension’s a good thing.”
But actually, tension is paralyzing. It creates fiscal uncertainty, immobilizes sponsors, advertisers, tourists, and fans, who will wonder, are they welcome, and why should they books trips and packages in our tariff-heavy economy, when they can’t be sure what anything will cost, or how they’ll be treated?
A female athlete who wants to compete at the Summer Games in Los Angeles could be criminally charged with “fraud” for looking too manly compared to her stated gender in her passport. In one of his earliest executive orders, Trump announced that Director of Homeland Security Kristi L. Noem will deny “any and all visa applications made by men attempting to fraudulently enter the United States while identifying themselves as women athletes.” What will that mean for Algerian boxer Imane Khelif, whose gold medal in Paris was so controversial, despite the face that no evidence ever surfaced that she has XY chromosomes?
The uncertainty is not just besetting foreigners. Los Angeles is trying to build the 2028 Summer Games and win sponsors at the moment amid plunging municipal bonds, global companies that are stock-hemorrhaging, and soaring steel and aluminum prices. Planned multi-billion-dollar transportation, light and high-speed rails and an aerial gondola, all require steel. The contract in Los Angeles states that if the budget is exceeded, California taxpayers will bear the burden. They already face a $78 billion deficit. Santa Monica just rejected a chance to host Olympic beach volleyball because it figured out the event would cost far more than it could bring in…
I’ve argued long and hard in this space for taking the Games away from bad actors and dealbreakers such as China and Russia. The worldwide athletic community has contingencies, and leverage. If the significant perception persists, both domestically and globally, that this country is not a safe place for international visitors or, more important than anything to FIFA and the IOC, a safe place for their money, the governing bodies have the power to move these events to a more hospitable and dependable partner.
Say, Canada, with those nice, reliable Mounties.
Sunday Morning The Hip Bone’s Connnected To the… Open Thread
dc
It’s not going to happen, but FIFA should move all World Cup games to venues in Mexico and Canada. And only direct flights between the two countries.
Ruckus
shitforbrains isn’t acting.
This is who he is. Every demented cell of him.
He was this person when he had zero power and he’s this person when he has any at all.
lowtechcyclist
The problem, of course, is that these things do take years and tons of money to prepare for.
Maybe FIFA can divide the U.S.’ share of the matches between Mexico and Canada, if those nations think they can handle the added load.
Another country can’t get ready for the 2028 Olympics from zero, starting now. Just fuhgeddaboutit. The best possibility would be to see if a recent Olympics host nation, with most of its facilities still intact, would be able and willing to host it in 2028.
But I can’t imagine that other countries’ athletes would want to try to come here, only to be denied entry on specious grounds, as long as Donald Fucking Trump is running this country.
schrodingers_cat
Was this “journalist” sleeping when the Orange man was campaigning. He is doing what he said he would do. Black swan is an unexpected event. After the Republican party, the Orange Man is their creation.
Shalimar
They definitely should start now designating the alternate venues in Canada and Mexico in case the US is too xenophobic to fulfil their duties as co-host. Situation will not get any better anytime soon.
pacem appellant
Tangental, I do not like the WaPo (other other outlets) framing of Imane Khelif’s gender. It’ isn’t just that there is “no evidence ever surfaced that she has XY chromosomes?” This negative framing confuses people. The correct framing, which the WaPo is too cowardly to report, is “Imane Khelif’s critics falsely identified her as a man.” That is, they lied to promote a disgusting propaganda smear.
Professor Bigfoot
As I sit watching the Bahrain Grand Prix, I was thinking of treating myself to the USGP in Austin for my 70th, in a couple years… and then I asked myself, given what we see, will there even be a US Grand Prix in 2027?
Three stops on the F1 schedule are in the US: Miami, Las Vegas, and Austin. It’s a very international and very expensive sport.
“Oh well…”
Shalimar
@schrodingers_cat: I think she means just as bad or worse than a black swan event, not that the disaster is a surprise.
Elizabelle
Great to see you, AL. FWIW, I think Los Angeles should have backed out of hosting the Olympics after this winter’s catastrophic fires.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: the black swan was The Felon’s being president in 2026. Host countries were selected in 2018.
Ohio Mom
The Olympics were held in Nazi Germany so maybe ignoring local political events is part of the Olympics’ tradition.
I only know this because a Black American athlete, Jesse Owens, won several gold medals. He was a runner from Dayton, Ohio, so a local hero there.
His victories are seen as a rebuke to the Nazi belief in the superiority of white Aryans.
What would be the rebuke to Trumpism? I know it probably isn’t possible, but I wish they could move these two events elsewhere.
Librettist
IOC and FIFA are bad actors. They’re not going anywhere. Trump-land is their kind of preferred kleptocratic host; where no one can complain about the skim.
Raoul Paste
It’s hard to imagine where we will be by mid 2026. There could be a lot more unrest in the US population, and we could be making military moves against Greenland or Panama.
I don’t see much upside for sponsoring these events,
Scout211
So what I am hearing you say is that both organizations know just how to manipulate Trump to get the Olympics and World Cup that they want.
I would not be surprised.
Professor Bigfoot
@Librettist: There’s a wee aroma of that about FIA as well. Hmmmm…
Professor Bigfoot
@Scout211: “Nice little sporting event you got there. It’d be an absolute shame if something happened to it, you know.”
cmorenc
@schrodingers_cat:
Lots of people who ended up voting for Trump or staying home because they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the black woman democrat justified their decision in their minds by assuming Trump was blowing smoke to his base and wouldn’t really do all the things he talked about on the campaign trail. Believing he wouldn’t really go all-in on tariffs or project 2025, and would concentrate on shutting down border crossings from Central America across the Mexican border, and not on foreign exchange students or European nationals legally resident in the US, and that he would merely re-flavor rather than burn down essential government agencies and he would not do anything so stupid and short-sighted as shutting down American science and medical research.
Fuck these jackasses. The MAGAs by themselves were not nearly enough to elect Trump without considerable assistance from folks assuming things would continue more normally and prosperously with Trump than Harris. What really burns me is that in order for the Ds to retake control in 2026 and 2028, we need enough of these jackasses to have a profound epiphany and attitude adjustment, based in significant part on how Trump / the GOP congressional majority have made their own lives substantially more insecure and less prosperous, with real risk of ruin for many.
CaseyL
I live in Seattle, which is hosting the World Science Fiction Convention (“WorldCon”) this year. I can’t tell you how happy and excited I was when this was first announced a couple years ago.
Science fiction attracts, has always attracted, a lot of people who don’t fit neatly into racial, ethnic, and gender categories. (Not to mention a lot of people whose social skills could use some refining…)
It’s going to get dicey, and scary, and unpredictable. I don’t know how many people are going to decide not to come, and it’s far too late to move the convention.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Librettist:
A thousand times this. Those two organizations are easily the most corrupt sports bodies. Period.
They’ll feel right at home working with the Orange Fart Cloud.
sentient ai from the future
so i mean, other than the airline flight attendant’s union president, a lot of these union elected leaders are not covering themselves in glory lately (shawn fain, i’m looking at you).
but this is hopeful.
say his name.
https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3lmo2kjadkk2c
artem1s
ever since Munich the Olympics have been on security lock down. Be able to secure the Village and venues has been a leading factor in being able to be a host. given that the US has almost completely eradicated the competent parts of the DOJ, DHS and IC I’m thinking it’s far likelier we’re going to see a bunch of countries NOPE out. Could see only the old Soviet block and the US competing. Hate to say it but domestic terrorists and ammo sexuals are going to be a problem for any of the US host sites. Wouldn’t surprise me if cost of security was a factor in Santa Monica deciding to turn down the volleyball.
H.E.Wolf
@artem1s:
From 1974:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Front_Runner_(novel)
Baud
@cmorenc:
Yep.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Both the IOC and FIFA have experienced scandal after scandal. Corruption is part of their DNA.
In my opinion Trump views corruption as not just to be expected, but commended. It’s why he admires Putin. The society Putin has built in Russia is Trump’s ideal.
A Ghost to Most
Putin is running the show. Lumpy is his game show host. He’s the Drew Carey of tin-pot dictators. Know your enemy.
cmorenc
@Librettist:
What’s especially maddening is that the game of futbol aka soccer is not itself corrupt – the ongoing game between Man Utd v Newcastle will be decided entirely on the pitch, and any potential refereeing errors about foul calls or cards will be honest mistakes. And likewise Championship League results. FIFA doesn’t own the refs. it’s the senior management who rake off kickbacks and bribes regarding the siting for international tournaments. It’s perversely fortunate that the siting of international tournaments is where the real opportunity for corrupt rake-offs exit, and not in attempting to fix individual games.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Alas, the widespread adoption of sports betting threatens to corrupt games too. When big money is involved it attracts corruption.
This happened in bridge with the advent of professionalization.
Scout211
@Professor Bigfoot: yep.
Or, “Do you want the world to love and admire you, Mr. Trump? Or do you want to be a laughingstock?”
“And oh yeah, here’s a truckload of cash.”
Juju
@schrodingers_cat: Was this “journalist” sleeping when Trump was president the first time, as well?
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
I don’t see why The World Cup couldn’t easily be hosted any of a half dozen European countries on pretty short notice. I mean, sure you wouldn’t have shiny brand new stadiums but, like the better, larger Premier League or Bundesliga stadiums would be fine. Maybe not completely ideal but good enough and plentiful enough. Same goes for Spain, France, Italy, and those countries are all close together. So, if Canada, the US and Mexico can host then it could more easily be hosted by the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain. Expand to Denmark, Portugal if necessary but in that scenario each Country’s biggest and best professional team stadiums host – they would be perfectly adequate – and no single nation has to bear too much burden. The only downside if FIFA couldn’t probably soak them for nearly as much.
The Olympics are a tougher lift but would anyone other than the French complain if Paris hosted again? Let them know NOW and then just give those two year old facilities a polish and they’re ready to go. Again the IOC would probably have to take a major haircut to defray the cost to France. Which is why neither will happen because FIFA and the IOC won’t take a haircut even if it means their event is a disaster.
lowtechcyclist
@schrodingers_cat:
Sally Jenkins (she/her) covers sports for the Washington Post. I doubt she played any role in the WaPo’s coverage that helped normalize Trump. And (AFAIK) unlike the political reporters, she’s willing to say things like that about Trump’s Presidency so far.
tobie
I don’t see how the US can host the Olympics or World Cup. My work is international. In the space of one week, one person at work had their visa revoked and a foreign colleague just wrote to tell me he was too frightened to come to the US for a previously scheduled visit. Foreign visitors are anxious about coming here and green card holders and naturalized citizens are afraid to leave for work, family matters, etc. This doesn’t sound like a nation. It sounds like a penal colony.
Baud
People don’t trust Republicans to do all the bad things they say they’ll do and the don’t trust Dems to do the good things they will do.
Both parties are untrustworthy.
lowtechcyclist
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
If their event is a predictable and avoidable disaster, and they choose not to avoid it, I’d expect that to reduce the sale price of future events.
They’ll probably go full speed ahead anyway and worry about tomorrow when it comes, but there is a business rationale for moving the Olympics and World Cup.
prostratedragon
Off topic but maybe related to security matters.
Penn governor Josh Shapiro:
No injuries to family or staff.
lowtechcyclist
Since this is an open thread, here’s a lovely bit of satire on current events from my old online home:
The whole thread is a rather fun read.
hells littlest angel
I’m pretty sure that FIFA, of all agencies, understands that any potential problems can be made to go away if a certain palm gets greased.
lowtechcyclist
@hells littlest angel:
There’s that old definition of an honest politician: one who, once bought, stays bought.
Can FIFA trust Trump to stay bought? I bet they’re less than sure of that.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
The one thing is that I think covers the stage that those events will provide for him. So that might make him play ball.
MagdaInBlack
@lowtechcyclist: pretty fun comment thread =-)
Eta: I had forgotten about ” The Straight Dope.” TY, now added to my reading list.
Captain C
@lowtechcyclist:
It wouldn’t be easy, but I think there are enough stadiums between the two that could handle World Cup games; then the big thing is dealing with the crowds.
Captain C
@Ohio Mom:
In the World Cup, the USA going out ignominiously in the group stage, not scoring a goal, allowing many (including a number that were totally preventable by minimally competent play), amid a sea of deserved red cards. Christian Pulisic, the US star who has done a ‘trump dance’ to celebrate goals, has the worst three games of his life.
And then in 2027 the US Women’s team wins their World Cup (held in Brazil) and to a woman refuses to visit the White House.
Another Scott
@artem1s: If things get bad enough, I could see the IOC and FIFA “simply” delaying things a year, the way the IOC did with the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.
Who knows, we might have another pandemic starting around that time, also too, given the way things are going…
:-/
Best wishes,
Scott.
Baud
@Another Scott:
Optimist.
RaflW
One ‘solution’ is for a whole bunch of countries to boycott the World Cup and/or the summer Olympics. Less infrastructure needed to house, feed and transport 1000s of participants and especially their fans.
I’d just hate to see California taxpayers have to eat a huge loss because a lazy-minded old ass who cheats at golf and is increasingly xenophobic (though he always was) wrecks our global rep and 100s of thousands of fans blow us off.
RevRick
@prostratedragon: I hope security cameras nail the perpetrator.
Sister Golden Bear
Good article by Rolling Stone about the trans college fencer who’s the MAGA’s latest target of anti-trans hate campaign — in part because unlike the FTFNYT articles on trans people RS actually talked to the trans woman involved. (May be paywalled now, but archive.is etc. are your friends).
Background: At a minor tournament another fencer, Turner, took a knee a refused to compete against Sullivan because “she’s a man.” The same Turner who competed in a co-ed tournament (fencing is commonly co-ed at non-elite levels) and beat four cisgender men the week before, placing 8th out of 32 in that tournament. Turner who was disqualified from the tournament immediately (as she would’ve for refusing to fight any opponent), just happened to receive a $5,000 prize from an anti-trans group shortly afterwards.
For the record: 1) Sullivan finished 29th out of 34 in the tournament. 2) USA Fencing, like many sports federations, has a policy trans women can only compete in women’s events if they have completed “one calendar year of testosterone-suppression treatment.” Unfortunately, Sullivan is now off her college’s team in the wake of the Department of Education announcing an investigation into the incident.
gene108
@sentient ai from the future:
The standing ovation for bringing Kilmer Abrego Garcia home is a bright spot for me.
*************
I’m glad the MSM is finally noticing how much of a clusterfuck the World Cup and Olympics will be because of Trump.
Also, I think there will be deliberate sabotage by Trump to undermine these events. Watching Los Angeles and California fail at anything is a Republican wet dream. Soccer isn’t universally popular (understatement) in the U.S., and I bet it’d play well with MAGA to fuck with this “foreign sport” coming to the U.S. acting like we owe them anything.
gene108
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
I don’t know about Canada or Mexico, but the U.S. is not building any new stadiums for the World Cup. The U.S. has a ton of very big and very fancy stadiums already.
Baud
@Baud:
…I think *he covets* the stage…
bluefoot
@Professor Bigfoot: I’ve been thinking about this year’s US races too. Teams and fans are from all over the world. I’m not sure even drivers are safe. Could Hamilton be denied entry for supporting BLM? Hadjar just for being French-Algerian? The fact that I could even ask the question is insane.
granted, it’s not like some of the other countries that hold races are bastions of freedom, but they’re not capricious and insane.
linnen
@dc:
That is if Trump does not try to apply tariffs to flights crossing the US border.
Princess
It wouldn’t shock me if find that athletes who challenge American medal hopes have a particularly hard time getting visas.
JoyceH
My concern is less what happens at the game venues themselves than what happens at the borders. What are the odds that one or more random fans coming as spectators winds up hauled away and held in custody for weeks or disappeared entirely? If the administration sternly told ICE and CBP to behave themselves, would they? I genuinely think those guys have gone feral.
Snarki, child of Loki
@CaseyL: “I live in Seattle, which is hosting the World Science Fiction Convention (“WorldCon”) this year.”
Lots of discussion on File770 on just this issue, and what should be done. My bet? A lot of the convention will be “virtual/remote/online”. COVID taught everyone how to do that, ICE is giving people a reason to do so.
I, for one, lament that the WorldCon committee didn’t budget for “nuke the MAGAts from orbit”, dammit.
Elizabelle
Thinking of these events as superspreaders, with RFK the Lesser in charge of vaccine and health policy.
Is any of the consideration lodging availability for thousands of guests and athletes? The venues may be less of a problem.
Adam
There’s a very good chance a bunch of countries just boycott the Olympics.
Leto
@bluefoot: May 4th is the Miami GP. We’ll find out answers to those questions soon enough.
Also they, FIA, the teams, and drivers, are all more than happy to race in autocratic/shithole countries. Hamilton is basically the only one who’s ever spoken up about anything. Would this admin seek to punish him for that (black and uppity, double whammy)? Sure. But the rest of the teams and drivers would still show up and race. “It’s a shame about Hamilton… but we have a race to prep for…”
emjayay
Terrible Comments section design still terrible.
tobie
@Elizabelle: Yikes! You are so right.
MrPug
@dc: 100% agree.
lowtechcyclist
Headline for a Washington Post ‘news analysis’ piece by Dan Balz:
My response, in comments there:
Elizabelle
@lowtechcyclist: Dan Balz. Shorthand for “you don’t need to read this.” And I see that rightwinger Salena Zito has an opinion piece up today. The Bezos/Sir Will “Murdoch” Lewis Post.
Speaking of which, I see that inflatable Bezos fiancee Lauren Sanchez is heading for space tomorrow, with Katy Perry and Gayle King and 3 other women. The Guardian called it a “hen party.” Ouch. Wedding set for June in Venice. Jeff’s superyacht will attend.
hedgehog the occasional commenter
@CaseyL: Same. I still plan to come (driving from Denver), but it’s going to feel very different. 2026 is in Anaheim and is going to be facing the same issues.
catclub
@schrodingers_cat:
More than unexpected.
Black swan was postulated to not exist. Until they looked in Australia. So now, an actual black swan would be something happening that _cannot_ happen.
catclub
@Princess: Except Russians will have no problems.
Tehanu
A relative who works for the L.A. Metro and is deeply involved in planning for the Olympics says things are proceeding more or less normally at the moment, but awareness of the nasty possibilities is rising at their level, which is not executive-level.
pajaro
@schrodingers_cat:
Sally Jenkins is a sportswriter, and a good one. She is not a political reporter or on the campaign bus. As to what Trump said he might do, he definitively didn’t say he was going to make it difficult for the Olympics or World Cup to take place. He wants nothing more in his life to use them as an advertisement for MAGA, the same way Hitler used the 1936 Olympics to advertise the new German regime.
Elizabelle
Speaking of sports, and since we cannot avoid photographs of The Felon as much as we try to scroll quickly:
The Felon and F Elon attended a UFC fighting match last night in Florida. They were down front. Elon’s mini me small son was on his father’s lap, looking away. Only child in sight.
A four (?) year old, front row at a UFC fight?
OK.
SpaceUnit
@Elizabelle:
They were there to cheer for a fighter who is known for praising Hitler. I am not kidding. I was just reading an article about it.
The good news is that their guy lost bigly.
Elizabelle
@SpaceUnit: OMG. Seriously? You cannot make this $hit up anymore.
Harrison Wesley
@Elizabelle: Just another demonstration of Elon’s parenting skills.
bluefoot
@Leto:
Yes, and while we’re on the subject of corrupt sporting organizations, the FIA has repeatedly sought to punish Hamilton for being “political.” As if just going along and keeping quiet isn’t political…
SpaceUnit
@Elizabelle:
I know. It’s unfuckingbelievable.
Bryce Mitchell Choked Out
Leto
@bluefoot: agreed; there was some talk about what Ferrari would do with Hamilton’s charitable organization, as Mercedes (Toto in particular) were highly supportive, once he joined that team. Idk. Something I remembered a little bit ago, Hamilton wanted to retire here in the US after his career was done. He bought a ranch in Montana, and wanted to make the US his home. Don’t know how that will play out now.
TONYG
@lowtechcyclist: Either denied entry on specious grounds or just arrested and put into a secret prison. Why would ANYBODY want to come here at this point?
Elizabelle
@Harrison Wesley:
Grimes’ forehead must be black and blue by now.
JoyceH
Suspect arrested in PA Gov mansion. They said the name but I didn’t catch it. Cody Something.
Elizabelle
@JoyceH: Nice touch, for Palm Sunday and Passover.
Interesting to me that the family was awakened by police banging on their door. The 28,000 foot mansion (has exhibition spaces) was built in 1968.
Did the police get there before the smoke detectors went off?
It will be interesting to find out what was on Cody’s little mind.
JoyceH
@Elizabelle: “Cody Balmer”. I hate to stereotype, but that sounds… intensely white, doesn’t it?
lowtechcyclist
@Elizabelle:
I didn’t! I took the headline at its word.
Gotta say though, in the 16 years since I dropped my dead-trees WaPo subscription, I’ve forgotten a good deal of the “who’s who” among its bylines. I still remember which op-ed columnists are decent and which ones are terrible (can they take George Will to a farm upstate? Why is he still breathing, let alone pontificating?), but the news bylines, not so much.
lowtechcyclist
@Leto:
Was he looking forward to raising up a crop of dental floss?
PatrickG
@lowtechcyclist:
Actually George Will has been remarkably good on occasion , admittedly by the low standards we hold op-ed writers to. Mind you, I’m reading on improvement, not achievement, here.
cain
@Captain C:
I could see him yelling at the other countries saying it’s all rigged.
Gloria DryGarden
@Professor Bigfoot: Ah.