The extra “Special” Presidential Envoy had some thoughts about Putin’s objectives regarding Ukraine:
Witkoff claims Putin’s “request” is “to have a permanent piece.” (Maybe he should stop killing civilians in Ukraine then?)
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 14, 2025 at 9:43 PM
From The Moscow Times:
U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to a “permanent peace” deal with Ukraine, but did not indicate whether any of the Kremlin leader’s previous demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine had changed.
Witkoff met with Putin in St. Petersburg last week, their third meeting since Trump returned to the White House in January. Following that five-hour discussion, where Putin aides Yuri Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev were also present, the Trump envoy said he sees a peace deal “emerging.”
“Putin’s request is to have a permanent peace here. So, beyond the ceasefire, we got an answer to that,” Witkoff told Fox News in a Monday interview, adding, “It took a while for us to get to this place.”
Witkoff said the peace deal currently under discussion involves “five territories,” referring to Ukrainian regions currently occupied by Russian forces, but emphasized that the talks go beyond that — including Moscow’s demand that Ukraine abandon its NATO membership bid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously ruled out any territorial concessions to Russia as a potential step toward a ceasefire.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin sought to temper expectations after Witkoff’s meeting with Putin last week, saying that diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine were “tense and ongoing.”
“The issue is so complex that it’s unrealistic to expect immediate results,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. Still, we hope for the best, that this work will eventually bring positive outcomes.”
Despite the Trump administration’s diplomatic push, little progress has been made on the U.S. president’s goal of securing a quick Ukraine ceasefire.
More at the link!
Putin’s only interest is taking Ukraine. As in all of it. Even if he can only steal four or five oblasts in eastern and southern Ukraine now and then come back in a few years for the rest after he’s both had time to rearm and refit, as well as subvert Ukraine’s government and society from his now much expanded base of operations in the stolen oblasts.
Zelenskyy on Witkoff’s statement: For us it is red line to recognize any occupied territories as Russian #Ukraine
— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) April 15, 2025 at 10:49 AM
“Only the people of Ukraine can speak about the territories of our state.” – Zelensky firmly responded to Trump’s special envoy.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 1:30 PM
From Interfax-Ukraine:
Ukraine is a sovereign state, and only the Ukrainian people can speak about its territories, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
“Regarding the territory. Ukraine is a sovereign state, and all territories belong to the unitary state of Ukraine. Therefore, once again, only the people of Ukraine can speak about the territories of our state. And you know that for us it is a red line to recognize any temporarily occupied territories as not Ukrainian, but Russian. Therefore, once again, the relevant representatives are discussing issues beyond their competence,” Zelenskyy said during a press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Odesa.
Earlier, U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News on Monday that the peace deal would include resolving the “so-called five territories,” without elaborating on what exactly was being discussed.
All of this is occurring as the US is about to stop sending any more military aid to Ukraine.
The war between Russia and Ukraine is approaching a historic turning point: unless the Trump administration adjusts course, US military aid for Ukraine is about to cease.
In the months before leaving office, Joe Biden made a series of decisions to augment Ukraine’s stockpiles of vital munitions. Toward the end of 2024, the Department of Defense surged hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets and hundreds of armored vehicles to Ukraine, and that December, he approved an additional $1.25bn security assistance package for Ukraine, which has enabled the continued flow of US arms ever since (with the exception of the damaging pause ordered by DonaldTrump in March).
These decisions bought Ukraine time, but that time is running out. Ukraine is depleting its stockpiles of US munitions. The $1.25bn aid package will soon be exhausted. The United States still possesses several billion dollars in drawdown authority, which could be used to send Ukraine additional security assistance. But since taking office, Trump has not approved a single military aid package for Ukraine. Even if Trump were to reverse course and utilize this remaining drawdown authority, the amount available is insufficient to sustain US support for Ukraine over time. To do that, Congress would need to approve additional Ukraine funding, which will not happen while the Republican party controls both chambers and the White House. As a result, the era of US military aid to Ukraine is approaching its end.
Vladimir Putin is stalling the Trump administration’s ineffective pursuit of a ceasefire as he waits for Biden-era military aid deliveries to run dry. Over the weekend, shortly after the Russian president met with the US representative Steve Witkoff, the Russian military launched a horrifying ballistic missile attack in Sumy that killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians. Putin is biding his time, eager to see whether the Ukrainian army will buckle in the absence of US military aid. As he said recently: “There are reasons to believe that we will finish them off.” Even if Russia is unable to capture much more territory, Putin will still wait for Ukraine’s position to become significantly more desperate before making any serious decisions about an end to this war. As US military aid for Ukraine winds down, North Korea, Iran and China are likely to continue, and could decide to increase, their support for Russia.
Putin is planning for this war to continue for at least months longer. Russia faces its own challenges: Ukrainian forces continue to fight effectively and to impose extraordinary costs on the Russian military, and falling oil prices will place further strain on the Russian economy. Even so, Grigory Karasin, Russia’s representative in talks with the Trump administration, has indicated publicly that ceasefire negotiations will progress slowly over the course of this year. The US should be seeking to adjust Putin’s calculus – and to push him to engage in meaningful negotiations – by surging security assistance to Ukraine and intensifying sanctions against Russia. But regrettably, the Trump administration has done neither of those things, opting instead to pressure Volodomyr Zelenskyy and to make unilateral concessions to Russia.
More on that, including the author’s – the former Director for eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Russian Affairs on the NSC – after the jump.
President Zelenskyy was traveling to Odesa today with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, so there is no daily address. There is a joint press conference:
Georgia:
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 139— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 3:17 PM
North Korea:
This is a fascinating insight from @reuters.com about North Korea’s very significant materiel support to Russia’s war against #Ukraine – as well as insights into targetable vulnerabilities in the Russian strategic logistic system.
www.reuters.com/graphics/UKR…— Mick Ryan (@warinthefuture.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 8:15 PM
From Reuters:
This 13-second radio intercept, provided to Reuters by Ukrainian military intelligence, describes a dramatic battlefield retreat of North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region on December 1.
North Korean soldiers joined the fight alongside Russian troops late last year, helping their ally turn the tide on a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region. Lacking armored vehicles and drone warfare experience, the Koreans took heavy casualties, but adapted quickly. North Korea has sent an estimated total of 14,000 troops, including 3,000 reinforcements to replace its losses, Ukrainian officials say.
North Korea has not just offered the lives of its men in Russia. Much more significant for Russia’s strategy are the armaments flowing into Ukraine’s eastern front. For nearly 20 months, a Reuters investigation found, millions of North Korean shells have made their way to the frontlines in massive shipments by sea and then by train.
The flow of arms combined with North Korean manpower gave Russia a critical battlefield advantage, the investigation found, offering a new look into the growing partnership between two sanctioned countries.
The Reuters investigation shows the extent of Russia’s reliance upon North Korean shells on the battlefield, which helped it pursue a war of attrition that Ukraine has struggled to match. At times over the past year, the vast majority of shells fired by some Russian units were from North Korea, Reuters found.
An analysis of sea and land shipments by the Open Source Centre in conjunction with Reuters was confirmed by Russian artillery reports intercepted by Kyiv, satellite imagery and verified social media videos, as well as three senior Ukrainian government and military sources.
North Korea has also dispatched ballistic missiles as well as long-range artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. Its deliveries represent the most significant direct military aid to Russia’s war effort, which has also benefited from Iranian long-range drone technology and close economic support from China.
The Open Source Centre, or OSC, an independent UK-based research organization focused on security, tracked 64 shipments over 20 months carrying nearly 16,000 containers and millions of artillery rounds for use against Ukraine, including a shipment as recent as March 17.
The military partnership between North Korea and Russia came to light in 2023. It took on new importance in recent weeks, when North Korean troops, weapons systems and ammunition bolstered Russian firepower to evict the remnants of Ukraine’s incursion in Russia’s Kursk region just as the Trump administration was pulling support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials, including the military intelligence chief, have said North Korea is supplying half the munitions Russia needs at the front — a quantity consistent with the findings by both OSC and Reuters. One expert in the Ukrainian military told Reuters that the North Korean contribution was as high as 70%, and Reuters found that at times Russian artillery units were almost wholly reliant upon North Korean munitions.
“North Korea’s contribution has been strategically vital,” said Hugh Griffiths, who from 2014 to 2019 was coordinator of the U.N. panel of experts that monitored sanctions on North Korea. “Without Chairman Kim Jong Un’s support, President Vladimir Putin wouldn’t really be able to prosecute his war in Ukraine.”
Though Western military support for Ukraine has kept it in the war since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, including a Czech initiative to supply 1.6 million rounds of ammunition, that aid has been inconsistent and of late appears increasingly uncertain.
At no point has any Ukrainian ally offered up its own soldiers to fight.
By January, around 4,000 North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded fighting against Ukrainian forces since they first arrived in Kursk in late autumn, according to a South Korean security source. North Korea sent 3,000 more men by mid-February – and the reinforcements were better prepared, said Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Regiment, which has been fighting in Kursk.
“They adapted to modern combat conditions,” Shyriaiev recalled.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said in late February that North Korea also supplied 120 long-range self-propelled artillery systems and 120 multiple launch rocket systems to Russia beginning in late 2024, including some filmed by Ukrainian drones in Kursk.
Russia’s recent victories in Kursk come at a crucial time. U.S. President Donald Trump says he wants a quick end to the war, and Ukraine had hoped that holding Russian territory would strengthen its hand in negotiations.
But now only a tiny pocket of Kursk remains under Ukrainian control.
North Korea’s delegations at the United Nations in New York and Geneva, and its embassy in London, did not respond to detailed questions about Reuters’ findings, nor did Russia’s Defense Ministry or South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and Ministry of National Defense.
Much more at the link including audio and visualizations.
The US:
Here are the four recommendations that David Shimer, former Director for eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Russian Affairs on the NSC, has for the EU and its member states to take to support Ukraine.
As a baseline, European countries should accept more risk tolerance in donating their own military equipment to Ukraine. Many European governments maintain significant stockpiles of artillery, rockets and air defense; given the stakes of this war, more of those capabilities should be provided to Ukraine. Meanwhile, these same European countries should increase defense spending to replenish their depleted weapons stockpiles over the longer term.
Second, Europe should direct more resources into Ukraine’s innovative defense industrial base. Ukraine is producing cutting-edge drones, munitions and air defense capabilities that are reducing, though not eliminating, its reliance on external security assistance. Now is the time to finance Ukraine’s indigenous production of weapons, which are helping to blunt Russian assaults across the front.
Third, the United Kingdom and France – as leaders in their support for Ukraine – should try to strike a deal with the Trump administration to secure additional air defense missiles for Ukraine. During the Biden administration, the United States diverted its air defense exports so that they would go to Ukraine first. A coalition of European governments led by France and the UK should attempt to negotiate an agreement with the White House to continue this policy – with the understanding that the Europeans will foot the bill. Under this arrangement, participating European countries would purchase AMRAAM and Patriot missiles for Ukraine off US production lines, and the Department of Defense would prioritize those purchases given Ukraine’s acute and ongoing air defense requirements. Trump may refuse this offer, but there is no downside to making the pitch, which, if successful, could be broadened to cover additional US defense exports that Ukraine needs.
Fourth, the European countries supporting Ukraine will need to decide how to pay for all of this. One option is to dig into their own budgets. The other, more sustainable option is for Europe to seize the approximately $300bn in Russian sovereign assets currently immobilized in their jurisdictions. Those assets can be used to finance Ukraine’s defense industry, procure weapons from the US and around the world, and support the Ukrainian economy for years to come. Strategically, those assets would provide Zelenskyy with a durable source of non-US assistance, which would reduce Zelenskyy’s dependency on the US and increase his leverage in any negotiations to end the war. Many legal and policy experts have put forward strong arguments to justify seizure and to mitigate associated risks to the European economy. The costs of inaction today far outweigh the manageable risks of asset seizure.
Yesterday, Zelensky invited the U.S. President to visit Ukraine. However, today the White House announced that Trump does not plan to travel to Ukraine.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Trump is a physical coward, so this is not surprising.
Bloomberg reports the U.S. blocked a G7 statement condemning Russia’s missile strike on Sumy. Trump administration stated it could not support the condemnation, aiming to preserve space for peace talks during ongoing meetings between the White House and Kremlin.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Back to Ukraine.
The cost and the reason:
🇺🇦 Yana Stepanenko lost both her legs during the Russian shelling of Kramatorsk in 2022.
This child is an example of how illness turns into strength. Since 2023, the girl has been participating in charity marathons and raising funds for prosthetics for our military.
She is the pride of the nation! 🫡— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Ukrainian MiG-29 air strike with GBU62 bombs on Russian base. t.me/soniah_hub/1…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Southern Defense Forces have destroyed two stations of the costly Russian electronic warfare system “Borisoglebsk-2.” The estimated cost of a single system is around $200 million.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Kharkiv:
Russian drones in Kharkiv skies right now ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Russia has once again struck the suburbs of Kharkiv, destroying homes and damaging a medical facility.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 5:51 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
💥🦅 AFU struck the permanent deployment point of Russian 448th missile brigade in Kursk region, which on Palm Sunday launched a missile strike on Sumy, – General Staff
‼️ A secondary detonation of ammunition was recorded. The results of the strike are being clarified.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 9:57 AM
In Rylsk, Kursk region, a drone strike occurred. Following the impact, a fire was visible, and detonation was heard. What exactly is burning has not been specified.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 3:26 PM
During the night, drones launched a massive attack on Kursk. The Russian Ministry of Defense, of course, reported that they shot everything down – specifically, 115 drones, 109 of them over the Kursk region.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Sound of drone, anti-aircraft fire, and explosions in Kursk. Authorities report 1 dead, nine injured and at least six hits on residential buildings.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Three private houses hit as a result of “drone drops” authorities say – not clear if this means from impacts of drones themselves or shoot-down debris.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Russian Defense Ministry: Air Defense Forces Shot Down 115 UAVs Overnight
109 UAVs were shot down over Kursk Oblast, three over Voronezh Oblast, one each over Moscow Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, and Oryol Oblast.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Pokrovsk:
Russian shelling with Grad 122mm MRL of residential areas of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk seen through a Russian FPV drone.
— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@archer83able.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Odesa:
🇺🇦 Zelenskyy holds a meeting on security and social issues in Odesa.
According to the president, the main topics were the protection of the sky over Odesa region from russian attacks, the situation with grain exports, the work of regional enterprises and support for people.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 3:03 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.
Meet Pirate 🏴☠️ the three-legged dog who lives in Kamianka, a Ukrainian town that was destroyed by Russia. Few homes remained, but Pirate survived and was terrified of people. Now, he’s doing better and greets the Hachiko team when we arrive with food each week. 🙏
— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) April 15, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Open thread!
Citizen Alan
I will never stop hating the people responsible for a god-damned Russian asset becoming President once more. Never. I will hate them from beyond the grave.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Wombat Probability Cloud
Rupar:
Who knew Putin’s comprehension of spelling in English was so nuanced?
As always, thank you immensely, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Wombat Probability Cloud: You’re welcome.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Citizen Alan: Same.😡
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
A curse upon on all the fools who continue treating Russia and the Murder Goblin like they aren’t a bunch of war criminals.
Thank you Adam.
Ivan X
Is there a future for the fixed borders of sovereign states? Asking seriously. It’s feeling like the post WWII order may prove to be an anomaly (as is perhaps liberal democracy itself), rather than a lasting development built upon the desire and need for global stability and peace after a prolonged period of unpredictability, carnage and wreckage.
Viva BrisVegas
Munich, 1938
Mein Fuhrer only wants peace. Towards this he insists on the return of the Sudetenland, which was unjustly excised from the Fatherland. If the legitimate demands of the Fuhrer are met, he promises to make no more territorial demands in Europe.
Without any Czech participation Neville Chamberlain agrees and announces, “Peace in our time”.
History may not repeat, but here it’s not only rhyming, it’s plagiarising.