Last night IvanX asked:
Is there a future for the fixed borders of sovereign states? Asking seriously. It’s feeling like the post WWII order may prove to be an anomaly (as is perhaps liberal democracy itself), rather than a lasting development built upon the desire and need for global stability and peace after a prolonged period of unpredictability, carnage and wreckage.
I didn’t see his question before I racked out, but wanted to provide an answer.
There is a future for the fixed borders of sovereign states, but that future requires states to not be revanchist and expansionist. I think it is important to remember that a large number of the borders of nation states are products of the late 19th to mid 20the century. They emerge from the colonial, World War I, interwar/low intensity phase of the world war, and World War II periods. What I think the real issue is whether if there are border disputes will they be resolved through a reasonable, recognizably legitimate process of negotiations or through force. Which leads us back to having a stable international order and global system where the most powerful states seek to support a rules based order or whether they, themselves, are revanchist and expansionist.
Speaking of revanchist and expansionist powers:
⚡️ Trump officials ‘fed up’ with Europe’s efforts to strengthen Ukraine, Economist reports.
Some Pentagon officials have even questioned an unspecified ally about why it continues sending military aid to Ukraine, the Economist reported.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) April 16, 2025 at 6:18 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Some Trump administration officials are dissatisfied with European countries’ ongoing support for Ukraine, underscoring the growing rift between Washington and Europe, the Economist reported on April 15, citing undisclosed diplomatic sources.
Kyiv’s European partners have sought to present a united front on Ukraine, pledging additional assistance and preparing a “reassurance force” of troops to monitor a potential ceasefire.
Despite efforts to keep the U.S. engaged in the process, U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected providing security guarantees to Kyiv and has not announced any new aid packages, aiming instead to broker a ceasefire with Russia.
Some Pentagon officials have even questioned an unspecified ally about why it continues sending military aid to Ukraine, a query that was ignored, the Economist reported.
The news outlet noted that the Trump administration’s “chaotic” nature makes it uncertain whether these messages have any substance or are mere “noise.”
Ceasefire efforts have nevertheless stalled as Russia continues to reject a 30-day truce supported by Washington and Kyiv and has repeatedly violated a partial ceasefire covering strikes against energy facilities.
Earlier reporting suggests that Trump’s team remains divided on how to proceed further.
While U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg reportedly urged a tougher stance on Russia, Trump seems to be listening to Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who has met Russian President Vladimir Putin three times and voiced optimism about closer engagement with Moscow.
European partners have sought to sway Trump toward providing security guarantees to Ukraine at least in some capacity, for example, by providing airpower or intelligence support for the “reassurance force.” Trump has not only offered no commitments but is also expected to reduce U.S. military presence in Europe, signaling declining interest in the continent’s security.
Two different things going on here. The first, as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, is that Trump’s natsec team don’t know what they want to actually achieve. Trump and Witkoff want to do a deal with Russia so they can then do business with Putin and Russia. Hegseth is just incoherent. Rubio does whatever Peter Marocco and the zampolit the White House personnel office assigned to Rubio tell him to do. Kellogg has been on both sides of every part of this. The entire level of senior political appointees at the DOD below Hegseth are all genteel isolationists who come from the Koch funded natsec network of think tanks. This is a completely different type of strategic incoherence from that of Biden and his team who at least agreed that they did not want Russia to win.
The second is that if you spend months telling Europe they have to step up and that Ukraine, it’s future, safety, and security are all Europe’s problem, then don’t be surprised when the EU and its member states step up and take action.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
A Truly Reliable Peace Can Only Be Achieved When Reality Forces Russia to Come to Terms With Our Capabilities – Address by the President
16 April 2025 – 21:11
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
There has just been a report by Minister of Defense Umerov on communication and joint work with our partners in Europe: new support packages will be coming, we are also preparing a new security architecture – all the specific details of how a partner security contingent in Ukraine can function. On our part, we will do everything to ensure that political decisions – regarding the contingent – are implemented as swiftly as possible, precisely when the time comes. Today we also had in-depth discussions with our diplomats about our weeks ahead: possible meetings here, in Europe, our work with the United States, and our relations with other countries — with all countries which are strong enough to truly influence diplomacy. In every part of the world, it must be equally clear that the cause of this war lies solely with Russia. The root of it sits there in Moscow, in the Kremlin; that is why there is still no ceasefire, let alone anything more. It is now 36 days since the United States proposed a full and unconditional halt to strikes in the air, at sea, and on land. Ukraine accepted the proposal immediately over a month ago. Russia continues to ignore it and still feels no consequences; and that is the key problem.
Today, I spoke with the President of Finland, in particular about this – about diplomacy, which is losing momentum due to insufficient pressure on Russia. We also discussed relations with the United States – we coordinated our joint messages, our joint steps, our joint positions. It is important that Ukraine and almost all of us in Europe have a unified position on many security issues. I thank Finland for its support.
There are good results from the Ukrainian Government team working with the American side on the economic partnership agreement. First Deputy Prime Minister Svyrydenko delivered a report today on this. The basic legal aspects are almost finalized, and further, if everything moves just as swiftly and constructively, the deal will yield economic results for both our countries: Ukraine and the United States.
And one more thing. Today, I presented state awards to employees of Ukraine’s defense industry. Their professional day was on April 13, when Russia struck Sumy with ballistic missiles. We have the means to respond to such strikes, and we will not simply let the scum who kill our people leave in peace on this earth. We have every right to do this, it is absolutely just – to respond to the killers as they deserve. Russia must accept the idea of the inevitability of Ukraine’s strength, and a truly reliable peace can only be achieved when reality forces Russia to come to terms with our capabilities. Our drones, Ukrainian missiles, our artillery, Ukrainian shells, our equipment – everything produced by Ukraine – will defend Ukraine, the lives of our people, our state. I thank all more than 300,000 Ukrainians who work at our defense enterprises – here, in our state – for the sake of Ukraine’s strength. I am proud of our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also presented awards at a meeting with Ukrainians working in the defense and industrial sectors.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with employees of Ukraine’s defense and industrial complex, thanked them for their work, and presented state awards.
“Our defense industry is already manufacturing more than a thousand types of weapons: from artillery shells to missiles and long-range weapons, to our drones. Over 40 percent of all the weapons used at the front to defend our country are produced in Ukraine,” the Head of State noted.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that, in order to ensure its own security, Ukraine will keep ramping up arms production both independently and in cooperation with partners.
“More and more countries and leaders are showing interest in working specifically with our defense industry. Almost every meeting with Ukraine’s truly strong partners includes discussions about cooperation with Ukrainian arms manufacturers and new agreements on joint projects. All of this is a sign of trust in Ukraine. And all of this, in many ways, is the result of your work,” the President said.
The Head of State called on everyone to always remember the Ukrainians who gave their lives while working and fighting for Ukraine. The participants honored their memory with a minute of silence.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented employees of the domestic defense and industrial complex with the Orders of Merit, III class, one of which was awarded posthumously, the Medal “For Labor and Valor,” and conferred the honorary title of Honored Machine Builder of Ukraine.
The meeting was held on the occasion of the Defense and Industrial Complex Employee Day, which Ukraine is marking for the third time on April 13. On this day in 2022, two Ukrainian Neptune missiles destroyed the Russian missile cruiser Moskva.
Georgia:
Day 140. The Director of Vaso Abashidze State New Theater Davit Doiashvili AKA “Doi” has been dismissed.
He’s being repressed because of his and the Theater’s role in the protests.
After closing Rustaveli, people gather at the Theater. And so does the police. #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 1:48 PM
1/ Ministry of culture fired Davit Doiashvili, the artistic director of the state theatre, which is on strike in solidarity with the arrested actor.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
2/ Vaso Abashidze State New Theatre, led by Doiashvili, held protest performances across various regions of Georgia as part of its protest activities, alongside a strike.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
3/ The theatre went on strike since the actor Andro Chichinadze, who had participated in pro-European rallies, was arrested by police on charges of involvement in group violence.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
4/ Chichinadze remains in pre-trial detention. The theatre demanded his release, along with the release of other prisoners of conscience.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Reportedly, the regime will hold Georgia’s Independence Day events of May 26 not on Rustaveli Avenue as every year but nearby at the Orbeliani Square.
They know they wouldn’t be allowed there and that it would spike things up. The Christmas tree and April 9 were good indicators.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 9:30 AM
1/ “I wonder, will I get 6 years in prison or 9? What will my mother be like in 9 years? And my father? Or where will the girl be—the one whose years I’m spending in prison instead of with her?” – writes detained activist Zviad Tsetskhladze from prison.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:47 AM
2/ Tsetskhladze is calling on the public to gather on April 19 at 7:00 PM in front of Parliament:
“Let us walk the same path to Golgotha, where the path of the Georgian nation is the path of Christ – a thorny road of crucifixion and inevitable resurrection”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:47 AM
A court has sentenced Beka Jaiani to life in prison for the murder of transgender woman Kesaria Abramidze. Jaiani was found guilty of committing a particularly brutal, gender-based murder, as well as systematic beatings motivated by intolerance toward gender identity.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 3:49 AM
‼️Georgian Dream has effectively banned receiving foreign grants without govt approval.
In yet another repressive move against civil society and media organizations, the Georgian Dream’s parliament reviewed and passed the new law in an expedited process over just two days.
#RepressionInGeorgia— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) April 16, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Moscow on the Potomac:
Truth, lies and the betrayal of Ukraine | Opinion
https://www.ft.com/content/27e5ffff-ad8e-4ef7-bbe4-640bd792577f
— Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) April 16, 2025 at 1:36 PM
From The Financial Times:
Near the start of Stalingrad, the first part of Vasily Grossman’s epic duology on Russia and totalitarianism during the second world war, two characters have a heated exchange. At the heart of their argument is a dispute over whether there can be more than one truth. “If we start playing at two truths, we’re in trouble,” one concludes tartly.
The Russian war correspondent turned author of the War and Peace of the Soviet era saw that as the last word on the matter. Not so Donald Trump, as we were reminded again this week.
“When you start a war, you gotta know you can win a war,” he said of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his latest bout of extemporising on Russia’s invasion. “You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.”
Trump’s admirers, of course, say people should not be so pernickety. One confidant of the president and his inner circle tells me that Trump and his aides are all fans of pro wrestling and believe politics should play out publicly in the same spirit of mock combat.
Trump is a past master at pandering to the idea he should not always be taken too seriously. His delivery of the line “Did I say that?, with a cheeky raised eyebrow, is now something of a leitmotif. And there is of course a history of such “silly old me” self-deprecation when a president is caught out. Ronald Reagan comes to mind.
But there is a chasm of difference between the linguistic slipperiness of day-to-day politics and the twisting of history. There is a reason that writers from Aeschylus to Milton have grappled with disputes over the origins of conflicts. They understood — and explored — how valuable as a political weapon it can be to obscure the cause of a war.
The idea that truth is the “first casualty of war” has long been a cliché. Trump’s fiction about Ukraine reminds me of the Through the Looking-Glass line of the Bosnian Serbs besieging Sarajevo in the early 1990s. Even as they lobbed shells into the Bosnian capital from the surrounding hills, they would maintain they were the victims.
At least, however, their propaganda could be easily rebutted on the ground. Trump in contrast has the world’s most resonant megaphone. Every time he utters such lies, he sows more doubt in America about the history of its involvement in the war, and further conflates legitimate questions about Ukraine with Russian talking points.
The Maga line is that Zelenskyy’s government is desperate to keep the war going so they can stay in power. That is nonsense. Certainly, the government is flawed. Its recruitment for the armed forces, for example, has been calamitous. And no doubt it will emerge eventually that some of the military aid has gone astray. Yet as anyone who goes to Ukraine can see, the truth is that the people are exhausted and desperate for peace — but it has to be a just and secure peace, which will ensure Russia cannot take a breather and then invade again.
This is not, however, solely about decency and justice for Ukraine. It is also about America’s place in the world. Trust in it among its traditional allies is leaking away by the day. South-east Asian officials openly ask if it can ever be regained. Many European officials argue it has gone for the foreseeable future. Blatant untruths from the White House reinforce this sense.
In Stalingrad a would-be Communist party member argues in favour of focusing on the “truth of the future”— ie the utopian vision of the party — rather than dwelling on grim reality. That is the Trump way. Ignore the facts and focus on a fanciful or indeed a “great” future. Grossman rightly gives this short shrift. As one of his characters replies cuttingly to the idealist: “In war . . . there is only one truth.”
More at the link.
“Trump’s D.C. U.S. attorney pick appeared on Russian state media over 150 times … Nominee Ed Martin did not initially disclose his RT and Sputnik appearances from 2016 to 2024 to the Senate.” www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 11:52 AM
‘In early 2022, Martin told an interviewer on the same arm of RT’s global network that “there’s no evidence” of a Russian military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, criticizing U.S. officials as warmongering’ www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Infiltration and influence at every level.
Excellent work by Steve Rosenberg here. As his press review shows, Russian elites are absolutely delighted by America’s new direction. Trump is giving Russia what Soviet strategists could only dream about during the Cold War. And it’s not old Western hawks saying it. It’s Russians saying it.
— Edward Hunter Christie (@ehunterchristie.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Italy:
⚡️ Italy transfers $28 million to restore Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The funds are part of a broader 200 million euros (around $227 million) initiative co-financed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) April 16, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Denmark:
⚡️ Denmark to send unarmed soldiers to Ukraine for drone warfare training.
The courses, expected to begin as early as this summer, will take place at training centers in western Ukraine and will not involve direct combat.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) April 16, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s parliament has voted to extend martial law for another 90 days. It had been set to expire on May 9 – fascist Russia’s Victory Day. It also means no elections can be held this summer.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Dnipro:
Dnipro is on fire following a russian drone attack.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:06 PM
A young woman was reportedly killed in a Russian drone attack on Dnipro. Seven others were injured, including a 9-month-old baby.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Kherson:
This morning, russia launched a massive attack on central Kherson, bombing residential areas and then targeting rescue crews with artillery. A clear tactic to kill civilians and punish those trying to save them. One dead, three injured. Sports center, supermarket, homes destroyed.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Russia keeps destroying Kherson. They launched four glide bombs at the city today. At least two people got injured
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 6:34 AM
This is how good morning looks like for Kherson, Ukraine: Russian army hit all the favourite “military targets” today: supermarket, a children’s playground, a sports facility, civilian cars, apartment buildings and – of course – a rescue vehicle. 1 person was killed, 6 more were wounded. Wednesday.
— Margo Gontar (@margogontar.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 5:28 AM
While recording a message to the residents of Kherson, the head of the City Military Administration, Roman Mrochko, came under enemy fire. He just stood up and continued his address.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv region is under the russian missile attack right now ‼️ the city itself is silent so far.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Russia keeps raining glide bombs on the Kharkiv region, leveling everything.
Kupyansk area after last night’s attack, apartment buildings.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 10:06 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Something is on fire in the russian Kursk 👀
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Ukrainian Su-27 destroys pontoon crossing in Kursk region using GBU39
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 11:17 AM
A new batch of Cargo 200 from Kursk has arrived in Bashkortostan.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Ivanovo Oblast, Russia:
Ukraine’s military have accused this Russian military unit of being one of those that carried out the Sumy Palm Sunday massacre of civilians. Another unit in Russia’s Kursk Oblast was reportedly attacked last night.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:01 AM
This also demonstrates Ukraine already has the capacity to carry out long-range drone attacks on specific military targets across much of European Russia. Ukraine is also developing jet drones and missiles.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Video taken by Russians from inside one of the barracks of the 122nd Missile Brigade in Shuya during a drone strike today
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Video loc: 56.847659, 41.386488
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 3:18 AM
Base loc: 56.842816, 41.382166.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 3:18 AM
At least two drones struck the base – a second video shows a drone diving directly for a column of smoke presumably from a strike that occurred shortly earlier. Small arms fire can be heard ineffectively trying to down the drones.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 3:18 AM
Second video loc: 56.835074, 41.382270
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Clearer video of one of the attacking drones – a Liutyi (Fury) long-range UAV.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 3:56 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
dimmsdale
thanks as always, Adam. My day doesn’t feel complete until I check in here with you nightly, and I appreciate your care and diligence.
YY_Sima Qian
Not knowing what they want to accomplish, pretty much characterizes eery single aspect of the Trump gang’s FP, including trade policy. The Biden team has a general idea of what they want to accomplish, the incoherence there was in the mismatch between goals & reality, & means to ends.
CarolM
I just wanted to de-lurk and say thank you, Adam, for the work you do to collect and share all this information. I read your posts every day but usually on the morning after you post, so this is the first opportunity I’ve had to thank you in a timely manner.
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale: You’re most welcome. Thank you for the kind words.
Adam L Silverman
@CarolM: You’re welcome.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
So, officially, the US is now Putin’s Little Bitch, at all levels.
The World is watching and will not forget.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayzSm-wRDzI
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/saintjavelin/status/1912502059892342811#m
Martin
I’ll admit I didn’t think Vance would be more embarrassing on the international stage than Trump, but he’s really putting the work in. Telling Europe they should have acted more independently after we invoked Article 5 is a special kind of peak asshole.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: I’ve got this stuff about Martin in tonight’s update.
Jay
@Martin:
Peak idiot, this week.
Article 5 was invoked for 9/11 and Afghanistan.
The Coalition of the Willing for Dubya, Dubya Me Too was you, Britain, Samoa, Guam and a couple of other tiny Pacific States.
NATO, the EU and other US allies only got involved when you fucked everything up so bad that the “Worlds #1 Military Power” was getting it’s ass handed to it by guys with access to diesel fuel and shit, and you had to beg for help.
Y’all ever find those WMD’s?
And over, and over, and over, the people Couchfucker Vance is shitting on, said, “don’t do it”.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
Trump’s band of idiots believe their own propaganda about Europeans being weak. I think they expected Europe to knuckle under, not step up.
TeezySkeezy
@YY_Sima Qian: They want performative cruelty. It’s their drug. When they get that hit, though, they lose focus on the stuff they are supposed to be doing (governing, negotiating). That gets sidelined by their cruelty euphoria.
Mea
thank you, Adam.
Ivan X
Thanks, Adam!
Westyny
Thanks, Adam!
Doug R
Just thought I’d pop in to say that I don’t comment very often on these threads, but I try to scroll through every day and I appreciate your work, Adam.
Slava Ukraine!
StringOnAStick
I want to add that there were more Ukraine flags than American ones at the national protest day event in our town. I walked around and thanked every holder of a Ukrainian flag for doing so.