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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 1,154: If a Paper Tiger Roars in the Forest, Does Anyone Notice?

War for Ukraine Day 1,154: If a Paper Tiger Roars in the Forest, Does Anyone Notice?

by Adam L Silverman|  April 23, 202511:00 pm| 18 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

It is 10:00 PM EDT/5 AM local time in Ukraine and the entire country is under air raid alert. This is a combined Russian missile and drone attack. The alert has been up for hours:

Four more great big bangs here in the west of Kyiv. Ballistic missiles. Kharkiv also under missile attack. Whole country on alert.

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:13 PM

The last several hours have been brutal here in Kharkiv. We’ve been hit by 7 missiles and 11 Russian drones. It was relentless, truly overwhelming, and terrifyingly, the attack continues.

Russian cruise missiles are already inside our airspace, and more drones are coming

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 8:54 PM

The Ukrainians are counterattacking:

Even as the Kremlin unleashes its missiles and drones on Ukraine, a very large Ukrainian drone counter-attack against fascist Russia is going on tonight as well.

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 7:34 PM

The US brokered/backed negotiations between Ukraine and Russia broke down earlier today when the US decided not to show up.

Ukraine’s asked for support, not surrender instructions. If the US wants to redraw borders, maybe it should start with its own.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:32 AM

Predictably, peace negotiations involving the White House went nowhere. The regime in the White House was peddling a softer version of Russia’s demands, which were non-starters. Ukraine doesn’t need Trump to sign such deals.

Another failed election promise

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 11:18 AM

Reuters, citing sources, reports that Ukraine has prepared a document stating there will be no discussions on territorial issues until a “full and unconditional ceasefire” is achieved. This is reportedly the reason why the negotiations in London fell apart.
www.reuters.com/world/europe…

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 9:38 AM

From Reuters:

WASHINGTON/LONDON/PARIS, April 23 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy clashed again on Wednesday on efforts to end the three-year-old war in Ukraine, with the U.S. leader chiding Zelenskiy for refusing to recognize Russia’s occupation of Crimea.

Trump’s Vice President JD Vance said it was time for Russia and Ukraine to either agree to a U.S. peace proposal “or for the United States to walk away from this process,” echoing a warning from Trump last week.

Speaking to reporters in India, Vance said the proposal called for freezing territorial lines “at some level close to where they are today” and a “long-term diplomatic settlement that hopefully will lead to long-term peace.”

“The only way to really stop the killing is for the armies to both put down their weapons, to freeze this thing,” he said.

A former Western official familiar with the U.S. proposal said it also called for the recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Since taking office in January, Trump has upended U.S. policy toward the war in Ukraine, pressing Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire while easing pressure on Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor in 2022.

Zelenskiy on Tuesday reiterated that Ukraine would never cede Crimea to Russia, which seized control of the peninsula in 2014 in a move that was condemned internationally. “There’s nothing to talk about here. This is against our constitution,” he said.This all happened as both Trump and his spokeswoman amped up the rhetoric on Ukraine.

More at the link.

“Ukraine is ready to negotiate, but not to surrender.” -said First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 8:27 AM

Leavitt: “In order to make a good deal, both sides have to walk away a little unhappy. And unfortunately, President Zelenskyy has been trying to litigate this peace negotiation in the press. And that’s unacceptable to the president … the president is frustrated. His patience is wearing thin.”

[image or embed]

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 23, 2025 at 2:50 PM

And there it is. Trump comes out in favor of codifying Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and blames Zelenskyy for Putin’s aggression.

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 23, 2025 at 12:04 PM

Russia can make this claim in the knowledge that Trump is busy savaging Zelensky in public & will probably blame Ukraine for any collapse of diplomacy.

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 4:43 PM

There is no address or press conference from President Zelenskyy today.

Georgia:

Day 147 of #GeorgiaProtests.
New, free and fair elections, and the release of the regime prisoners.
📷 MOSE

[image or embed]

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 4:53 PM

1/ Activist Albi Korzaia says the Ministry of Internal Affairs has initiated administrative proceedings against her — according to her, an investigator from the ministry informed her that she is being accused of insulting the head of GD’s investigative commission, Tea Tsulukiani.

[image or embed]

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM

2/ Albi Korzaia said: “They called me — it was an investigator. They said administrative proceedings had been launched against me for insulting Ms. Tea Tsulukiani”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM

3/ “I repeated the same words: that she is a Russian, a traitor to the country. They told me I need to show up, but I said I have no intention of going anywhere”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM

4/ On April 12, citizens gathered in protest outside Tea Tsulukiani’s residence. Dozens of patrol and criminal police officers were deployed to the scene.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM

5/ The protest was sparked after Tsulukiani referred to a national hero — who was beaten to death during the 2008 Russia–Georgia war — as someone “pointlessly sacrificed for someone’s PR stunt.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM

🔴Mariam Nikuradze has been fined for the fourth time for “artificially blocking the road” while performing her journalistic duties.

🔴The total amount of the fines has reached GEL 20,000 (approximately €6,400). According to @mariamnikuradze.bsky.social, all of the fines are being appealed.

[image or embed]

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) April 23, 2025 at 11:06 AM

This man has been hospitalized after he was dragged by the court security today. There were brawls after an unlawful regime prisoner trial. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

[image or embed]

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 12:27 PM

Remember this guy, Davit Gunashvili, visibly taken off the pedestrian sidewalk by the regime police for no reason whatsoever?

He’s now been jailed for 7 days for this grave offense. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

[image or embed]

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 7:47 AM

The US:

I want to come back to this:

🔴 The Kremlin says Ukraine must withdraw from its four internationally recognized regions for the war to end—calling it a “condition for peace.”
united24media.com/latest-news/…

[image or embed]

— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) April 23, 2025 at 3:11 PM

From UNITED24 Media:

Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the war against Ukraine could end “immediately” if Ukrainian troops withdraw from four regions that Russia has included in its constitution.

Speaking in an interview with Le Point on April 23, Peskov reiterated Russia’s longstanding demands, stating, “We want to achieve our goals. Peacefully or militarily.”

According to Peskov, Russia sees Ukraine’s potential NATO membership as a direct threat to its security. As a result, Moscow insists that Ukrainian forces must withdraw from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, which are currently under partial Russian control.

Russia’s actions are widely considered unlawful under international law, specifically the principles outlined in the United Nations Charter, which prohibits the acquisition of territory by force.

“We need a neutral status for Ukraine and recognition of the reality for the territories,” Peskov said. He emphasized that Russia’s constitution now enshrines the four regions, asserting that any move by Ukraine to challenge Russia’s control would be unacceptable.

“If Ukraine withdraws its troops from these four regions, the military operations will cease instantly,” he added.

Peskov also stated that Russia does not demand the resignation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but he noted that any documents signed by Zelenskyy could be contested due to the “illegitimacy” of his leadership in Moscow’s view.

In related news, US President Donald Trump criticized Zelenskyy in a Truth Social post, calling Zelenskyy’s stance “very harmful” to peace negotiations, asserting that Crimea was lost to Russia years ago under former US President Barack Obama.

None of this is going to happen. No Ukrainian leader is going to recognize that Donetsk, Luhanks, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts are part of Russia. Just as no Ukrainian leader is going to admit that they will give up on Crimea even if achieving the strategic objective of retaking it is not feasible right now.

To answer Bupalos’ question from last night:

I have no idea what to make of this supposed leaking to Western Media of the plans to bribe and flatter Trump. Almost just sounds like a kind of insulting and trolling Trump. Or I guess it could be a genuine attempt to sabotage a cease-fire negotiation by the ultra-nationalist faction? Dunno. It’s certainly hard to take at anything like face value.

The point of those leaks, the point of Peskov’s statements, is to try to establish Russian assertions as facts and to make Trump and his team look weak and easily manipulated by Putin and Russia. To make Trump, his team, and the US look like a paper tiger.

The Financial Times has more on all of this:

President Donald Trump has attacked Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy for refusing to recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea, accusing him of harming peace negotiations with Moscow.

In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, the US president described the situation for Ukraine as “dire”. “He can have Peace, or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country,” Trump said.

“We are very close to a Deal, but the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE,” he added.

Trump was responding to a remark by Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Tuesday, when he told reporters that Ukraine would “not legally recognise the occupation of Crimea”, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 and that is still internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory. “There’s nothing to talk about here. This is against our constitution.”

The US president responded that the statement was “very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia”, adding that Crimea “was lost years ago . . . and is not even a point of discussion”.

Later on Wednesday, Trump again pointed to Ukraine’s president as the obstacle to a deal. “I will say that I think Russia is ready . . . I think we have a deal with Russia.” He added: “I thought it might be easier to deal with Zelenskyy. So far, it’s been harder.”

His intervention came days after the US floated ideas for a possible resolution of the war that included Washington recognising Russian control over Crimea as well as at least acknowledging the Kremlin’s de facto control of parts of four regions in eastern Ukraine — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — that it holds.

As Trump spoke in Washington, Ukraine’s Air Force announced an air raid alert across the country. Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko also reported several fires had erupted from drones downed by air defences.

“Putin is only showing a desire to kill,” said Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff.

More at the link.

They are not very close to a deal. Largely because there’s no deal to be had here as this isn’t bartering in the marketplace. Russia has genocidally re-invaded Ukraine, has declared by fiat that even though it cannot take, hold, and control four Ukrainian oblasts that they are now part of Russia and will be for all eternity. Moreover, Trump’s team isn’t really trying to broker a truce, ceasefire, armistice, or even negotiated settlement to the war. What they are trying to negotiate is a new US-Russian diplomatic, economic, and financial relationship. Which is why this is all going nowhere.

I think so much about how we are reaping the fruits of the past – often democratic-led tepid mismanagement of crises in so many global flashpoints across eastern europe, the middle east, and south america. you really question what progressive foreign policy should look like going forward

[image or embed]

— Salome (@salome-gongadze.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 3:32 PM

Denmark:

It might be worth noting that the question of whether Russia believe the US “can’t or won’t support the European NATO-allies” in a conflict is one of the factors raised in the opening paragraph of the joint government-opposition parliamentary agreement for stage one of the new Danish naval plan.

[image or embed]

— Corporal Frisk (@corporalfrisk.corporalfrisk.com) April 23, 2025 at 4:03 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Here’s a solid peace plan: US declares Crimea and all four regions Ukrainian, calls Putin war criminal, labels Russia aggressor—Russia pulls out and pays for the damage it caused

[image or embed]

— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 12:42 PM

💥/1. The aerial reconnaissance unit of the 35th Marine Brigade shares exclusive footage with our community — the complete evaporation of a fully loaded Russian Grad MLRS, found and targeted with the help of a Vector UAV.

And now, they need your attention👇

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 11:39 AM

/2. They urgently require equipment worth $7,000 — and only 40% of that goal is left to raise.

The unit has already waited too long and are trying to secure funds for a month already. It’s time to change that.

🫶 35th Brigade rely on the support of our community:

PayPal [email protected]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 11:42 AM

/3. Funds are needed to purchase: cordless drill; chainsaw; angle grinder; rotary hammer; autonomous stove; 20 plastic 20L fuel canisters; 2 generators (MXR3500); 2 Starlink; 2 heavy-duty 30m extension cords; cables and mounting materials; 2 EcoFlow Delta Pro 3600W; charger for Bluetti AC200MAX.

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 11:44 AM

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv. Morning. Russian missiles

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 10:11 PM

4th explosion in Kharkiv. Third attack tonight

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 9:57 PM

After attacking Kharkiv during the day, russian forces continued their terror at night, striking the city with six drones and causing severe fires. Additionally, a Molniya drone hit a residential building in the early morning hours.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 2:27 AM

Kyiv:

Great big bang in Kyiv, and another – incoming missiles. Shaheds also in city, just heard anti-aircraft guns. And two more big bangs just as I write… Not been this noisy for a while…

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 6:06 PM

Kyiv right now ‼️
One of the Russian missiles struck near an apartment building.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 7:36 PM

Marhanets, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

The number of injured has risen to 42.

Nine people left for work this morning will never return back home because russia killed them.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 5:55 AM

This morning, Russian forces attacked the city of Marhanets in the Dnipropetrovsk region using a drone. An enemy FPV drone struck a bus transporting employees of a local enterprise, resulting in at least 9 fatalities and injuring another 30 people.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 7:29 AM

Donetsk Oblast (I think):

Russian hangar with armoured vehicles destroyed from the inside by fiber optic drones of the Birds of Magyar unit. youtu.be/hyvFWhT8bKM?…

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Tatarstan, Russia:

Unknown drones visited Elabuga in Russia’s Tatarstan, where Russians are producing most of their Shahed drones that attack Ukraine daily.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 8:37 AM

⚠️/1. Right now, Yelabuga in Russia is under drone attack. Yelabuga is a known location where Russians assemble their Geran/Shahed kamikaze drones.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 5:43 AM

/2. Russian Geran/Shahed factory in Yelabuga is located 1150km from the frontline.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 5:51 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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    18Comments

    1. 1.

      jonas

      April 23, 2025 at 11:34 pm

      So it appears we owe the late Saddam Hussein an apology. It turns out those perfidious Kuwaitis were to blame for him having to invade their country and the whole Gulf War thing could have been settled amicably if they had just let him annex most of their country. Who knew?

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Urza

      April 23, 2025 at 11:36 pm

      @jonas: Pretty sure in short order we’ll be apologizing to Germany for everyone attacking them in 1939 and us not helping them.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Jay

      April 23, 2025 at 11:49 pm

      John Hardie
      @JohnH105
      Apr 22
      Also, before Trump starts making trades for dubious Kremlin “concessions,” he’d do well to reread the CAATSA law of 2017. It explicitly bars US recognition of Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory occupied by force, including Crimea. It also allows Congress to block the lifting of many Russia-related sanctions. This includes sanctions on banks and energy firms that the Biden admin (re)designated under EO 13662 on its way out the door precisely so they’d fall under CAATSA.

      Christopher Miller
      @ChristopherJM
      Apr 22
      Indeed, a military improbability disguised as a concession for Trump. Putin hasn’t yet been seriously pushed by the new US administration to give up anything really. As we write: European officials briefed on US efforts to end the war cautioned that Putin would probably use the apparent concession as bait to lure Trump into accepting Russia’s other demands and forcing them on Ukraine as a fait accompli.
      Apr 22, 2025 · 8:59 PM UTC

      https://nitter.poast.org/JohnH105/status/1914786258842194199#m

      Gee, if there was only a functioning House and Senate.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 23, 2025 at 11:53 pm

      @Jay: Don’t hold your breath.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      jonas

      April 23, 2025 at 11:54 pm

      @Urza: Not just that. I mean, let’s talk Pearl Harbor…

      Reply
    6. 6.

      MountainBoy

      April 23, 2025 at 11:54 pm

      Thank you for your reports Adam.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      SiubhanDuinne

      April 24, 2025 at 12:01 am

      If a Paper Tiger Roars in the Forest, Does Anyone Notice?

      I just need to say, that is a most fine headline. Well crafted, Adam.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Urza

      April 24, 2025 at 12:02 am

      @jonas: No, this maladministration will not recognize the successes of non Europeans.  Probably not even swarthy Europeans.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Jay

      April 24, 2025 at 12:04 am

      @Adam L Silverman:

      Ukraine and the “Coalition of the Willing” have agency.

      The US has completely fucked itself.

      All corners of the globe.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Jim Appleton

      April 24, 2025 at 12:21 am

      What they are trying to negotiate is a new US-Russian diplomatic, economic, and financial relationship.

      Left unsaid is The New Sherrif in Town authoritarian regime’s self regard as made of the same stuff.  Sadly, that self regard is so far and foreseeably a disaster.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 24, 2025 at 12:23 am

      @MountainBoy: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 24, 2025 at 12:24 am

      @SiubhanDuinne: You’re welcome. I’m planning on doing a part 2 with it tomorrow depending on how things go.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 24, 2025 at 12:25 am

      @Jim Appleton: Unfortunately.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      AlaskaReader

      April 24, 2025 at 12:55 am

      Thanks Adam

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Westyny

      April 24, 2025 at 12:56 am

      Thanks, Adam.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 24, 2025 at 1:05 am

      @AlaskaReader: @Westyny: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      strange visitor (from another planet)

      April 24, 2025 at 3:35 am

      adam, as always, thank you for your efforts.

      so i have a question:

      to prevent jamming, the use of drones guided by data and commands through fiber optic cables seems to be on the rise.

      does that mean that there are miles and miles of microcables draped all over ukraine? if so, are they dangerous and how does one clean that up?

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Gvg

      April 24, 2025 at 7:08 am

      I have occasionally wondered if our future allies cursed the US for being so wish washy in the years preceding our finally joining them in WWII. They weren’t stupid enough to bring it up after of course. I know FDR wanted to sooner, but the country as a whole and that included those we elected was very divided.

      This is sort of similar. Our country is not supporting Ukraine nor our allies, because we are having a civil disagreement at home. People say they support Ukraine in theory but they also vote for isolationism. That’s what the republicans are selling these days. Some of it is weariness. The policeman of the world got very very old. Too many little wars and coups that didn’t work out. In spite of all the gun worship embedded in the cult, the saving the world doesn’t work is also known. That backlash is in both the liberal and conservative sides of America.

      The soft power hasn’t been taught or explained in generations in school apparently. In fact I get the impression that most people have never been lead through any chain of production, or economic and political cause and effect on anything. They ought to have. I was by middle school. In fact I think in elementary American history they taught us about the impact of investing in roads and canals and later railroads leading to American prosperity. Middle school Americanism versus Communism went into how Congress had to divide up military spending to congressional districts to get votes and military bases helped local prosperity. Also how foreign bases impacted foreign relations with spending but also relationship problems over behavior expectations. Though the later was more high school. But the spending and votes was definitely discussed early on. Also farm aid. And I grew up in cities.
      Well I am old, but I have noticed the younger ones don’t seem to know how our power happened and even think that it has to have had a source that can be destroyed by their own actions.

      Reply

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