After a long night of genocidally bombarding civilian targets, Putin and Russia continued these attacks all day.
Russia bombed us all night—first drones, then missiles. Nine killed in Kyiv, and more might still be under the rubble. The city’s covered in smog. Is this what peace is supposed to look like? How much longer will Russia be allowed to kill us?
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Overnight, Russia launched a total of 214 targets. Seven Iskander ballistic missiles, 31 Х-101 cruise missiles, six Kalibr cruise missiles, 65 UAVs, and four Х-59/69 guided air missiles were shot down.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 4:40 AM
While this was going on, Trump personally appealed to Putin. On Truth Social.
Vladimir, STOP!
— Josh Kovensky (@joshkovensky.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:27 AM
There’s several reasons there’s a direct line of communication on his desk in the Oval Office. One of them is other world leaders don’t have Truth Social accounts!
The President then had some thoughts about Putin’s and Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine:
Trump again puts the onus on Ukraine to make a deal with Putin
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 24, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Trump says that Russia’s concession to Ukraine is not taking over the entire country
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 24, 2025 at 2:10 PM
That’s not a concession, that’s an ultimatum.
Thinking you’ll achieve peace by rewarding invasions is like thinking you’ll cure alcoholism with vodka.
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 4:10 AM
We’ll get to more on the fact that Trump and his team are attempting to negotiate a fait accompli with Putin and Russia around Ukraine from a position of weakness after the jump.
President Zelenskyy was in South Africa today. Here is the video of his joint press conference with President Ramaphosa:
First Lady Zelenska was also in South Africa with her husband to sign a memorandum of cooperation and the establishment of a Center for Global Ukrainian Studies.
During First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska’s visit to the Republic of South Africa, which was shortened due to a Russian shelling of Ukraine on Thursday night, the first memorandum on cooperation and the establishment of a Center for Global Ukrainian Studies on the African continent was signed with Professor Francis Petersen, Principal of the University of Pretoria.
“Ukrainian studies are not just about Ukraine – they’re about universal themes and values that resonate with the experience of many nations: about liberation movements, a history of subjugation, the fight for dignity, and the right to be yourself,” the First Lady said.
Olena Zelenska emphasized that dialogue between Ukraine and the Republic of South Africa is mutually beneficial and enriching. According to her, South Africa is well aware of transformation, historical challenges, and long-term changes on the path to freedom and equality of human rights. At the same time, Ukraine is an example of democracy at war – defending freedom and independence.
Background. The Global Coalition of Ukrainian Studies was launched with the support of First Lady Olena Zelenska as a joint initiative of the Ukrainian Institute, the Fund of the President of Ukraine for the Support of Education, Science and Sports, the Mission of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea / Crimea Platform Office, the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Its main goal is to promote the development of Ukrainian studies – including Crimean Tatar studies – to ensure accurate and professional research on Ukraine’s history and culture, and to popularize the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar languages and cultures.
Georgia:
Rustaveli Avenue remains blocked on the 148th day of continuous protests. Citizens continue to demand a re-run of the parliamentary elections and the release of those arrested during the demonstrations.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Georgians chant support for Ukraine every single day, it’s a part of our protest ritual. And especially today.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:20 PM
More and more activists in Georgia call for outright resignation of the illegitimate regime as opposed to the universally demanded new free and fair Parliamentary elections.
Sometimes it seems to me that we are on a very slow but a very surely drafted path of history.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 1:50 PM
1/ Police officer Lasha Kharkhelauri, who participated in a body search, was questioned today at the trial of Nika Katsia, who is formally accused of drug trafficking but actually is arrested for participating in protests.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM
2/ After the hearing, journalists were not given the opportunity to ask him questions. The police officer and his companions physically assaulted the journalists and left the courthouse in this manner.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM
3/ Nika Katsia denies the charges and claims that he was drugged with 14 grams of cocaine.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM
1/ Fifth president of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, says the discussion around suspending Georgia’s visa-free travel with the EU is not coming from Brussels but is part of Georgian Dream’s fear campaign.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
2/ If the visa liberalisation is ultimately halted, she added, the responsibility will rest with the Georgian Dream.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
3/ Representatives of the GD government have not ruled out the possibility that the EU could suspend visa-free travel with Georgia.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
4/ In recent days, GD leaders have downplayed the importance of visa-free access, suggesting it wouldn’t significantly affect Georgian citizens. Their comments have sparked widespread discussion and concern across the country.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
5/ Prior to this, the EU Council suspended visa-free travel for Georgian diplomats and officials, but ordinary citizens continue to benefit from visa-free access to the EU for short-term (90-day) visits.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
6/ Georgia has benefited from visa-free travel with the European Union since 2017.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
The US:
“Although the exact number of missiles the United States has is classified, it is likely a few tens of thousands. Russia has fired almost 12,000 missiles in … two years. [America] suffers from munitions shortages across almost every weapons category” www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 8:22 AM
From Foreign Affairs:
The U.S. military is arguably the most powerful in the world. But it is not ready for such a conflict. Its weapons are sophisticated. Its soldiers are second to none. Yet the United States has low stockpiles of munitions, its ships and planes are older than China’s, and its industrial base lacks the capacity to regenerate these assets. The U.S. supply of precision-strike missiles, for example, would last no more than a few weeks in a high-intensity conflict and would take years to replace. In war games that simulate a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Washington runs out of key munitions within weeks.
American officials are aware of the shortages. In response, Congress and the Department of Defense have contracted to expand existing defense production lines and, in some cases, to restart old ones. Yet these recent efforts are insufficient to compensate for more than three decades of complacency and atrophy. Washington has hiked defense spending to $825 billion—a record nominal level. But this represents under three percent of U.S. GDP, the lowest level this century and among the lowest since World War II. Of that $825 billion, just 21 percent is dedicated to procuring new munitions and equipment.
To address this failure, Washington must act now. The Trump administration, in partnership with Congress, must undertake six urgent initiatives: modernizing existing assets, broadening defense capabilities, expanding stockpiles and manufacturing capacity for munitions, increasing competition and reducing supplier vulnerabilities, changing how the Pentagon does business, and increasing funding levels and continuity of funding. To be effective, these initiatives must be implemented together. A piecemeal approach will be insufficient. Increasing the American defense budget, for instance, is essential, but it will not be enough to meet U.S. needs unless Washington increases the number of companies in the defense industrial base and adds newer capabilities such as uncrewed systems, better space-based sensors, and software that can be continuously updated. Even then, American officials might struggle to get what they need unless the armed forces can more easily buy equipment and supplies from U.S. allies. Finally, the Pentagon needs to dramatically reform its management practices and procurement processes to focus on speed and efficacy.
Increasing defense spending may be a tough sell in Washington, given that both the Trump administration and progressives in Congress want to reduce the military’s footprint. But policymakers should remember that preventing a war is much cheaper than fighting one. With increased military spending on quantity and quality, Washington can make a potential Chinese invasion more costly and risky, creating doubt in Xi’s mind about his odds of succeeding. And if a U.S. military buildup does not stop a Chinese assault on Taiwan, Washington will be even happier that it expanded its arsenal. The United States, after all, will not have the time required to ramp up production once a conflict begins.
From 1989 to 1999, the United States cut its defense budget by nearly a third. The Cold War was over, so U.S. officials no longer saw the need for an enormous military. Congress continued to spend on major defense platforms, such as the F-22 aircraft and Nimitz-class aircraft carriers. But it drastically reduced the budget for munitions and smaller weapons. The defense industrial base consolidated, and its investment in capacity and workforce declined. Suppliers focused on minimum rates of production, just-in-time inventory management, and cost reductions.
None of this worried most U.S. strategists. After the first Gulf war, in which the United States defeated the sixth-largest army in six days with very few casualties, analysts assumed that future wars would likely be short and would not require massive stockpiles of basic munitions and materiel. Military planners assumed there would be future quick victories secured by technological superiority.
For three decades, this reasoning largely held. From 2001 to 2002, the United States drove the Taliban into exile, and it rapidly defeated the Iraqi military in the second Gulf war that began in 2003. But the resulting, lengthy insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq proved that this vision of quick victories was a fallacy. Instead, asymmetric capabilities and sustained political will helped the insurgents outlast the U.S. military. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was further proof that the equation had changed. Defying the predictions of defense analysts, the Ukrainians successfully ground the wealthier, better-equipped Russian military to a halt, locking the two sides in a war of attrition that has cost thousands of lives and millions of munitions. Now, militaries are relearning the lessons of both world wars: major conflicts can still turn into slugfests, and industrial capacity is decisive.
The American military suffers from munitions shortages across almost every weapons category. It lacks short- and medium-range missiles. Most important for a conflict in the Pacific, it has insufficient long-range precision missiles—such as the navy’s long-range antiship missiles, joint air-to-surface standoff missiles, and the army’s precision-strike missiles. According to war games conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States might use 5,000 long-range precision missiles per week and run out after three to four weeks. The United States would also not be able to replace these missiles fast enough. According to a 2021 CSIS study on mobilization, it would take two years to begin replenishing long-range antiship missiles. Such are the consequences of letting the stocks dwindle and the industrial base shrivel: American defense manufacturers lack the parts, expertise, and factory space required to churn out new munitions stocks, as well as the cash flow from new Pentagon orders to ramp up production or invest in capacity.
To understand why, consider the Stinger: a surface-to-air missile with infrared capabilities to home in on targets but that is lightweight and shoulder fired. Stingers are portable and highly effective against enemy aircraft and drones and have therefore been essential in Ukraine. As a result, the United States has sent well over 1,000 of them to Kyiv. Washington is trying to replace these weapons, but the Stinger was originally designed in the 1970s, and the military last ordered them 20 years ago. Raytheon, the defense contractor, has had to hire retired engineers to make new ones. It has had to re-create obsolete components. The resulting bottlenecks meant that Raytheon was able to make just 60 Stingers per month over the course of 2024.
Washington is also in need of new ships and planes—the average navy vessel is 19 years old, and the average air force plane is 32 years old. Some ships and planes are 50 years old. On average, major defense systems such as these take more than eight years to make. Meanwhile, 70 percent of the ships in China’s navy have been launched since 2010. China’s annual shipbuilding capacity is also 26 million tons, or a staggering 370 times the United States’ shipbuilding capacity of 70,000 tons. The United States does not even have enough industrywide capacity to make a single Ford-class aircraft carrier per year. (These carriers weigh 100,000 tons.)
Washington’s needs are particularly acute when it comes to the chemicals used in propellants and explosives, known as “energetics.” Investments in these substances and the productive capacity to make them have been especially low; the two energetics most widely used by the United States are chemical compounds from World War II, typically made in government factories from that era. Meanwhile, China and Russia have been aggressively funding more sophisticated energetics programs, leveraging U.S. research. Alarmingly, the United States relies on foreign countries, including China, for about one-third of the raw materials it uses in energetics production.
Washington lags not just when it comes to traditional military wares such as missiles, ships, and energetics. It is also behind on newer innovations, including affordable drones. These systems are absolutely integral to the future of war. Ukraine, for instance, has used swarms of cheap drones to destroy or disable a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Russia, meanwhile, has used them to knock out chunks of the Ukrainian power grid. And the Israel Defense Forces have used uncrewed systems to defeat Hamas in dense urban and subterranean complexes. But today, there are no U.S. manufacturers of low-cost drones anywhere near the size of DJI, the Chinese company and global leader, which makes a very capable $1,000 drone that has been heavily used in Ukraine. Meanwhile, until late 2024, there was only one U.S. supplier of loitering munitions (suicide drones designed to loiter in an area and locate and strike targets with precision): AeroVironment, which has a contract to make 1,000 of them.
The Defense Department has started to make larger investments in affordable drones. Its Replicator program, established in 2023, was created specifically to buy thousands of them. But since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has blown through an average of 10,000 drones a month. The American government has allocated only 0.3 percent of the defense procurement budget to this effort, about the same amount as it dedicates to the close-air-support A-10 Warthog, which the military no longer wants.
Much more at the link.
While this problem, actually a crisis, has been decades in the making, the most immediate issue is one I spent the last three years pointing out and emphasizing in these nightly updates: when confronted with the reality in a way that could not be denied, Biden’s senior natsec team failed to put the US on a war footing to force more funding for and a revitalization of the US defense industrial base. Biden and his team inherited this problem from the first Trump administration, the Obama administration, the Bush 43 administration, and the Clinton administration. Rather than deal with the crisis they inherited, they dithered and equivocated for three years and left this mess for Trump and his team.
President Trump has adopted a completely new phrase over the past three months – “doesn’t have the cards” – which I’m pretty sure he got from Musk who fancies himself a card sharp and master poker player. Right now the US has few cards. Putin, Xi, Kim, Khameini, and everyone else can and have read the reporting and assessments of the US’s weapons systems and munitions stockpiles over the past three years. They may not know exactly what is and is not in inventory, but they know that right now the US does not have the capability and capacity to meet demand if it needs to do so. The question right now is what will Trump, his team, and the GOP controlled Congress do to begin to fix the problem. You can’t put an emphasis on “warfighting” if you’ve got nothing for the warfighters to fight with. The actual term we use in the Profession of Arms is we’re out of Schlitz. In this case because we stopped making it or enough of it.
And this goes directly to either unwittingly or purposefully mistaking Putin’s ultimatum as a concession.
“Trump replied,”stopping the war,” suggesting that not “taking the whole country” is a “pretty big concession.” Putin hasn’t taken #Ukraine because he can’t. Because of Ukrainian courage & resilience. To suggest this is a Russian concession is ludicrous & morally corrupt. www.cnn.com/2025/04/24/p…
— Mick Ryan (@warinthefuture.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:03 PM
From CNN:
Some US allies are highly alarmed by the framework the Trump administration is pushing to end the Ukraine war and Europeans are bracing for the outcome of another round of high-level talks between the US and Russia, multiple diplomatic sources told CNN.
The administration’s framework, presented in Paris last week, proposes significant sacrifices from Kyiv, including US recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Ukraine ceding large swaths of territory to Russia, according to an official familiar. Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday called “to freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today.”
Asked what concessions Russia was offering on Thursday, Trump replied, “stopping the war,” suggesting that not “taking the whole country” is a “pretty big concession.”
Multiple allied diplomats said they are rattled by what the Trump administration is proposing, because they believe such a framework sends a dangerous message to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and other world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, that illegal conquest could be rewarded, multiple diplomats said.
“This is about the fundamental principles of international law. This is very much about our own existence and the weakening of any safeguards that my or other countries have for our own independence,” an Eastern European diplomat told CNN. They and other sources spoke on background to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.
“If one country in Europe is currently under pressure or being forced to give up parts of its own legal territory, territory that has been that has been recognized as part of Ukraine … if one country in Europe is forced to do that, no country in Europe or elsewhere can feel safe, NATO or no NATO,” the diplomat said.
The proposal for a de-facto US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia would reverse years of US policy affirming that, despite Russian occupation, Crimea is Ukrainian territory. European officials say they would not follow suit – leaving the US isolated.
Asian allies too are growing concerned about an end of war agreement that would reward Russia after the deadly conflict.
In private discussions with US partners, Asian diplomats have clearly articulated their concerns about the global implications of a settlement that violates Ukraine’s borders.
“China is watching. We have told the Trump administration that. We are worried about the message they might take away from any end to the war that appears to award Russia for the bloodshed,” said one Asian diplomat.
All eyes are now on the expected meeting between special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin on Friday, which comes after sources say progress was made in talks with European, Ukrainian and US officials in London Wednesday. However, many Europeans fear that the progress might not be fast enough to satisfy Trump’s ambitions for a quick end to the war.
There are also concerns about what kind of additional promises Putin may make to Witkoff to garner favor with the US as European leaders warn that the Russian president is not to be trusted.
Officials are wondering what level of pressure will be applied on Witkoff’s fourth trip to Russia given the US’ desire for a quick end to the war and the US envoy’s past echoing of Putin’s arguments.
Trump on Thursday morning expressed dissatisfaction with the Russian leader after a deadly barrage of Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, saying that they were “not necessary, and very bad timing.”
More at the link.
The real problem is that the Russians have already decided that Trump and his team are, to continue with the poker metaphors, drawing dead, will walk away, and are easily manipulatable. This is a very public Russian influence operation.
Russia’s government paper: “It’s practically a foregone conclusion the US will pull out of Ukraine talks.” Another paper: “The unity of the West is gone. Geopolitically it’s no longer an alliance. Trumpism has destroyed the Atlantic consensus confidently & quickly.” #ReadingRussia
— Steve Rosenberg (@bbcstever.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Here’s the full video:
Public Law 115 – 44 – Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act makes it very clear that Russia’s annexation of Crimea is illegal and that official US policy is to not recognize Russia’s claims to Crimea, any other Russian occupied portion of Ukraine, as well as areas in Georgia and Moldova that Russia is also occupying. (h/t Jay).
SEC. 253. STATEMENT OF POLICY.
The United States, consistent with the principle of ex injuria jus non oritur, supports the policy known as the “Stimson Doctrine” and thus does not recognize territorial changes effected by force, including the illegal invasions and occupations of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, and Transnistria.
EC. 257. <<NOTE: 22 USC 9546.>> UKRANIAN ENERGY SECURITY.
(a) Statement of Policy.–It is the policy of the United States–
(1) to support the Government of Ukraine in restoring its sovereign and territorial integrity;
(2) to condemn and oppose all of the destabilizing efforts by the Government of the Russian Federation in Ukraine in violation of its obligations and international commitments;
(3) to never recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea by the Government of the Russian Federation or the separation of any portion of Ukrainian territory through the use of military force;
(4) to deter the Government of the Russian Federation from further destabilizing and invading Ukraine and other independent countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Caucuses;
This legislation was signed into law by President Trump during his first term.
Back to Ukraine.
Earlier today Trump said Putin will listen to him and stop bombing Ukraine. The situation right now:
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Kharkiv:
Right now, Kharkiv is enduring yet another russian drone attack! Explosions reported in the city!
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Air defense working in Kharkiv‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Kharkiv right now!
Russia yet again attacked our city with drones. Several households and businesses are on fire
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Kyiv:
A little girl tells journalists how loud the explosions were last night and how scared she felt.
Don’t our children deserve safety just like yours?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Death tall after the russian missile attack on Kyiv last night has risen to 12.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Kyiv last night.
Russian attack killed at least 10 people and injured at least 100 others
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:38 AM
The Interior Minister reported that in Kyiv, approximately 10 people may still be trapped under the rubble.
According to him, this information is still being verified. Klymenko also added that two children from the same family might have died — this is also preliminary data.— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:34 AM
During the night, Russia carried out a massive ballistic strike on Kyiv. Emergency response efforts are ongoing in five districts of the capital to deal with the aftermath of the nighttime attack.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 4:33 AM
🙏🫂 Today, Odesa mourns along with the rest of the country for the victims of the russian terrorist air strike in Kyiv.
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Zelensky has confirmed that the Russians struck Kyiv with a missile from North Korea.
“According to preliminary information, the Russians used a KN-23 ballistic missile manufactured by North Korea. Our intelligence services are verifying all the details.”
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 3:00 PM
How do you stop an evil that fires a ballistic missiles into a city?
You might feel helpless – but YOU can do something.
Empower Ukrainians to fight back, defend their homeland.
Help Ukraine’s 44th Separate Rifle Battalion raise money for thermal imaging drones here: buff.ly/cdHY0Xy
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:22 AM
More information about the battalion’s fundraising appeal here: www.facebook.com/nikolay.beda…
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Russian occupied Crimea:
‼️Reported strikes on Russian targets in Crimea, April 21–23:
💥According to available information, the following Russian assets were destroyed or damaged:
• ST-68UM radar system — confirmed hit, photos attached (Apr 23)
• Tor SAM system (Apr 22)
• P-18-2 radar + support vehicle (Apr 21)— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:29 AM
Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
In largest in Zaporizhzhia Oblast assault since 2023, Russian forces lost nearly entire battalion attempting to seize Orikhiv
Ukrainian artillery, drones, & anti-tank units obliterated dozens of armored vehicles without ceding any ground
euromaidanpress.com/2025/04/24/f…— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:38 PM
From EUROMAIDAN Press:
Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Here, after failing to make ground west of Orikhiv, Russian forces gambled on something bigger, a massive mechanized assault launched from the south and east. But what began as their boldest push in Zaporizhzhia in years ended in disaster, as nearly an entire battalion was shredded by Ukrainian artillery, drones, and anti-tank fire before reaching its objective.
The goal of the Russians is to achieve a longstanding operational objective and take the town of Orikhkiv before a ceasefire can freeze the frontlines. Orikhiv is a relatively small town of nearly 14 thousand people pre-war, but it is the largest and most strategically important settlement in this sector due to the many open fields here. Therefore, it is of high importance to both sides for its ability to accumulate a large number of forces.
The Russians previously tried to achieve a breakthrough near Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky to flank and approach Orikhiv to the west, but did not achieve further gains than their initial element of surprise had given them. So instead, they are now trying to approach the city from the south and east by conducting the largest mechanized assault seen in Zaporizhzhia in years.
The main advantage of the Russian forces is to the east of Orikhiv, which consists of an interconnected line of settlements from the town of Polohy to the prefrontal village of Novokarlivka, that is 16 kilometers away from the town. This allows Russians to conceal soldiers and armored vehicles relatively close to the frontline, and use the urban layout as a cover for movement until they reach Ukrainian positions.
However, while Polohy serves as a vital logistical hub just behind the frontline, the town sits dangerously close to Ukrainian artillery guns. This proximity places Russian staging areas within range of Ukrainian artillery, rocket systems, and accompanying reconnaissance drones. Furthermore, Ukrainian forces hold robust defenses in Mala Tokmachka, enforcing lethal fire control on any advancing Russian units.
South of Orikhiv, Russian troops around Kopani, Novoprokopivka, and Robotyne have virtually no cover to conceal their advance. The terrain, made up of open fields and settlements completely reduced to rubble during Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, along with dense minefields, makes any assault costly from the start. Additionally, Russian assault groups must gather all the way in Tokmak, 23 kilometers from the front, stretching Russian logistics and allowing for easy detection by Ukrainian drones. The moment those columns roll into the open, Ukrainian artillery and drone crews stand at the ready to cut them down.
Russians initiated their mechanized assault with over forty armored vehicles, dozens of buggies and motorbikes for reconnaissance, and a total of 320 soldiers, making up almost a full battalion combined with rear support elements. They launched their assaults from two pincers, from Kopani to Novodanylivka in the south and from Polohy towards Mala Tokmachka to the east.
Much more at the link.
Toretsk:
The defense of Toretsk through the eyes of assault troops from the 49th Separate Assault Battalion “Carpathian Sich”.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Rostov Oblast, Russia:
🔥Saboteurs set the Russian Su-30SM ’35’ on fire at the Rostov military airfield in Russia. (47.2682720, 39.6226034) t.me/DIUkraine/5761
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Vladimir Oblast, Russia:
First low resolution satellite imagery of the Russian 51st Arsenal east of Moscow after the explosions
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 1:45 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight.
Here is some adjacent material.
It’s love at first sight! 💙😍
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Open thread!
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
MountainBoy
I have so many questions and concerns about the state of this conflict everyday. Your nightly posts inform and keep me focused and optimistic for a positive outcome for the Ukrainian state and people Adam. At the same time, I am shocked, sad and embarrassed that OUR country has devolved so deeply.
Thank you for your reports!
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
NickM
“Vladimir, STOP!”
“Not until you say ‘green balloons’, dahlink.”
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@MountainBoy: You’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Westyny: @AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Why, 4 years into the first land war in Europe since WWII, does the defending army constantly have to have public fundraisers for the most basic equipment, like, say, trucks? Why hasn’t Ukraine’s allies supplied these?
Thank you Adam. I’m so grateful for all the hard work you put into these updates.
gene108
The 2 year old had never known peace.
West of the Cascades
[US lacks the defense industrial base to wage war against likely adversaries] – sounds like the perfect time to antagonize all of your allies and defense treaty partners! Is there anything that is really bad that Trump can’t make exponentially worse?