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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 1,158: The Conditionally Unconditional Ceasefire

War for Ukraine Day 1,158: The Conditionally Unconditional Ceasefire

by Adam L Silverman|  April 27, 202510:09 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Here’s Ukraine’s air defense tally from last night:

Reasonably heavy attack by Russia on Ukraine overnight with Shahed flying-bomb drones: of 149 launched, 57 shot-down, 67 jammed/crashed/lost. A further 25 presumably reached targets – air force reports damage in Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Donetsk, Sumy and Cherkasy oblasts.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 2:20 AM

Air force report:

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 2:21 AM

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who is not in Putin’s inner circle and serves to basically use Russia’s diplomatic power as a weapon, made an appearance on one of the Sunday shows this morning. He had thoughts.

LAVROV: Why don’t you ask me about President Trump’s position on Crimea?

BRENNAN: You like what President Trump said about Crimea when he said that it has been under Russian control since 2014?

L: It’s not about liking or disliking. It’s about the fact that he said the truth…this is a done deal

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 27, 2025 at 11:06 AM

I didn’t say they were good thoughts. Including those about the “unconditional” ceasefire:

Lavrov dodges straight questions on a Ukraine ceasefire, falling back on tired talking points: “You want a truce just to keep arming Ukraine? Kallas and Rutte say they’ll only back a deal that strengthens Ukraine,” сlaiming the goal isn’t peace but “Ukraine’s victory.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 12:48 PM

Russia is willing to agree to an “unconditional” ceasefire if weapons shipments to Ukraine stop and if the ceasefire isn’t used to strengthen Ukraine’s military- Lavrov said.

Conditional “unconditional” ceasefire. What a clown 🤡

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 12:57 PM

The Kremlin will keep putting forth completely unacceptable demands in order to make it seem Ukraine is to blame for a lack of progress in the “peace process.”

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 1:37 PM

SoinCO asked the following question this morning:

If tRump is such a good deal maker, why hasn’t he responded to putin’s aggressions by resuming arms deliveries to Ukraine?

The simple answer is he doesn’t want to. As far as he is concerned sending anything to Ukraine without getting something in return makes him and the US, but especially him, a loser because he’s not getting more about the deal.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Are Keeping Our Positions Strong So That We Have Every Opportunity for Proper Diplomacy – Address by the President

27 April 2025 – 21:24

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi already delivered several reports on the frontline situation. Our military continues to operate in the Kursk and Belgorod regions – we maintain our presence in Russia. Pokrovsk, all other directions in the Donetsk region – I want to thank our warriors for resilience. Incredible job! Particularly good results have been achieved by the 3rd Operational Brigade of the National Guard in the Pokrovsk direction. We are keeping our positions strong so that we have every opportunity for proper diplomacy.

The Russians talk a lot about their alleged readiness to accept American proposals, but so far, there have been no signs of the Russian army preparing for real silence. On the contrary, since Easter, the occupier has resumed its usual assault activity – of course, at the cost of significant losses, the Russians are trying to advance. And every day of such battles at the front proves that Russia is really trying to deceive the world – to deceive America and others – and to further prolong this war. And that is why we need pressure. Pressure is indispensable to make the Russians take all the steps – whatever is necessary to stop the war. Yesterday’s meetings in the Vatican and Rome confirmed that our partners understand what is happening. Ukraine is ready to move as swiftly as possible in diplomacy. 47 days ago, we agreed to the American proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, and later we made our own proposals to the Russians to stop striking civilian objects – at least that. But in Moscow, they are responding with Shaheds, missiles, artillery, and new assaults. A proper response from the world is needed – a response with new sanctions and even greater pressure. Of course, it is America that can take the most tangible steps – tangible for Russia.

Just overnight, the Russians launched nearly 150 attack drones against Ukraine. Since March 11 – when America proposed a full and unconditional ceasefire during negotiations in Saudi Arabia – the Russians have used nearly eight and a half thousand aerial bombs, almost two hundred missiles of various types, and nearly three thousand Shaheds. The overwhelming majority of them have been aimed at ordinary cities – at civilian targets. This must be stopped. Russia must halt its strikes – unconditionally. I thank everyone around the world who is helping us in this – who is helping to make diplomacy strong. And today, I want to especially recognize our Ukrainian rescuers personally – the entire team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, all utility services involved, and the National Police of Ukraine. I thank everyone who saves lives every single day. Thousands of people across our country are working to provide help as quickly as possible – to save as many lives as possible. I would like to specifically recognize the rescuers from Kyiv and the Kyiv region who worked this week following the Russian strike. Oleksandr Bobko, Oleksandr Kravchuk, Hennadii Petrivskyi, Yurii Shpak – employees of the 10th State Fire and Rescue Unit – I want to thank you all! Oleksandr Voronevych, Ruslan Kravchenko, Oleh Rybalko, and Oleksandr Ukhatenko – the 18th State Fire and Rescue Unit – thank you very much! Employees of the Mobile Rescue Center for Rapid Response of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – Ivan Miroshnychenko, Ivan Koval, Oleksandr Shylo, Anatolii Shcherbyna, Mykhailo Kudrenko, Ihor Lytvynenko, Dmytro Khoroshok – thank you! Also, employees of the Special-Purpose Emergency Rescue Unit from the Kyiv region – Denys Tkachenko, Oleksandr Mykoda, and Ivan Robul – thank you! The men from the Cherkasy region – also employees of the Emergency Rescue Unit who assisted here in Kyiv – Vadym Buhai, Oleh Herezha, Andrii Panteleiev – thank you! I thank everyone who is working for our people! I thank all of you – everyone who is defending Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 151

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 1:57 PM

“The people will prevail! Strength is in unity! Fire to the oligarchy!” 🔥

After a successful demo yesterday marking 150 consecutive days of protest, the mood on Rustaveli Avenue feels more hopeful today.

Day 151 — our main avenue remains blocked.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 2:00 PM

On January 14, Batumi City Court jailed Mzia Amaglobeli, CEO of Batumelebi and Netgazeti, for slapping a police chief. She faces 4–7 years in prison, while no one has been held accountable for violent police attacks on journalists and civilians.
#RepressionInGeorgia
#GeorgiaProtests

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) April 27, 2025 at 12:47 PM

JUST IN: pro-Russian “Solidarity for Peace” party (that no one has even heard of in Georgia) officially demands from the Prosecution to launch criminal investigation against the legitimate President Zourabichvili and former Ombudsman Ucha Nanuashvili over “criminal attempts at regime change.” 1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:54 AM

They base accusation on Russian ORT broadcasting of a brief conversation between Russian pranksters with Zourabichvili and Nanuashvili. The pranksters presented themselves as the Ukrainian ex-President Poroshenko and Russian opposition figure Garry Kasparov, in addition to Rep. Joe Wilson’s reps. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:54 AM

In the conversation, the President stated that since the closure of USAID and slow European action in terms of transferring promised funds to civil society instead of state institutions, the democratic camp has been starved. 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:54 AM

Surprise surprise, cracking down on any and all funds of CSOs (because it depends vitally on foreign aid since there’s basically no local independent money) starves CSOs and the democratic camp! Who would have thought?! Certainly not the illegitimate regime that adopted such laws! 4/4.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:54 AM

The US:

“This week is going to be a very important week, in which we will have to make a determination about whether this is an endeavor we want to continue to be involved in, or if it is time to focus on some other issues that are equally, if not more, important”- Rubio about Ukraine.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 9:32 AM

You didn’t do anything yet. You had no time to do anything meaningful whatsoever🤦‍♀️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 9:32 AM

Make an effort!

Is he ok

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 8:54 AM

No, no he is definitely not okay.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The U.S.-Ukraine natural resources deal will be finalized, said advisor Mike Waltz. He noted that Secretary Bessent and President Trump have been working hard to close the agreement, and that Trump is fully committed to getting it done.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 11:01 AM

Again, there is no deal here. There is a list of demands from the US that the Ukrainians are not, because they cannot, going to agree to. If something does actually get done, it is not going to look anything like the proposal that Trump and his team have put forward.

Back to Ukraine.

I agree with Minna…she’s smart and she’s right. Ukraine should not take a bad deal that doesnt meet their interests. They are actually winning on the battlefield, according to SACEUR Cavoli’s testimony in front of HASC and SASC…and the Russians will never live up to any agreement unless compelled.

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— Ben Hodges (@general-ben.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 6:53 AM

The author of the essay in The Times is Professor Mark Galeotti: (emphasis mine)

Has Donald Trump finally had an epiphany about Vladimir Putin’s appetite for peace, appropriately at the Vatican? His social media post, after meeting Volodymyr Zelensky, that the Russian leader “maybe doesn’t want to stop the war” but instead is “just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently”, offers Ukraine some hope that he might modify the proposed deal he had previously said was “set in stone”. In the past, though, such moments of clarity have been brief and quickly forgotten, so for now Kyiv must still grapple with the implications of that ultimatum.

The deal is a terrible one, at odds with both international law and basic decency. But it may yet prove impossible for Ukraine or its other western allies to improve the terms as long as Trump remains in the White House. For all their courage, Ukrainians cannot afford to fight for another three years and nine months without America’s backing. As even Vitali Klitschko, the former world heavyweight boxing champion who is now mayor of Kyiv, admitted last week, the “painful solution” of trading land for an end to the fighting is “not fair” but may now be necessary.

The peace plan has not publicly been detailed, but its terms are clear. It envisages an immediate ceasefire and the start of direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv. Ukraine would be barred from joining Nato and would sign the planned minerals and infrastructure deal with Washington. Meanwhile, America would formally accept Russian sovereignty over annexed Crimea, and informally recognise its control over the other occupied territories. The US would also lift its sanctions on Moscow, although there may be an immediate “snap back” in case of renewed Russian aggression.

It will be immensely hard for Ukraine to accept terms so generous to the invader. Perhaps half a million dead and wounded across the military and civilian population; some 20,000 forcibly abducted children; ten million refugees, of whom seven million have fled the country; £135 billion in damage to the nation’s infrastructure. These figures represent a terrible toll that cannot be overlooked.

There are of course grounds to worry that, if accepted, this deal will only embolden Putin, just as the West’s acquiescence to Russian gains following his 2008 invasion of Georgia and his 2014 seizure of Crimea encouraged him to take the biggest gamble of his rule and mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is also possible that Beijing would see the Kremlin essentially being rewarded for seizing part of another sovereign nation and regard it as licence to take Taiwan.

These are arguments against the current peace terms that it is for America and its European partners to consider. But Ukraine, locked in an existential struggle for survival, does not have the luxury of worrying about other’s countries’ fates.

Would such a deal mean the end of Zelensky’s political career? Even if many Ukrainians want peace — polls suggest that half may be willing to consider a peace-for-land swap — they may make him the scapegoat for their understandable anger. If the deal is accepted, it might well become the last service that this extraordinary wartime president undertakes for his nation.

The immediate response from many Ukrainians and their supporters abroad is that the country can and must fight on. This is certainly an option: the Ukrainians have demonstrated extraordinary fortitude in this war.

However, the Trump administration has so far seemed determined to wash its hands of the whole situation if Kyiv rejects this latest version of the deal. A reported counter-proposal in which the US would provide firm security guarantees for Ukraine seems a non-starter.

More at the link.

First, as I’ve stated here repeatedly, whatever the Ukrainians decide they have to do, is what they should do. Second, I’m not really sure Professor Galeotti is really grappling with his own statements of fact. There is no doubt that Putin will not abide by the accord as he has never abided by any of the other one’s he as the leader of Russia and Russia itself have agreed to. If the recording is correct, what Trump and his team envision as a deal is that Russia gets rewarded for genocidally re-invading Ukraine, committing hundreds if not thousands of war crimes, while Ukraine just has to live with it. It isn’t that such a “deal” isn’t fair, it is also not necessary.

The Ukrainians seem to be far more aware of the actual reality than Professor Galeotti is:

Ukraine is nowhere near real negotiations to end the war — we are at the same point as last fall, says former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

[image or embed]

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) April 27, 2025 at 2:21 AM

Even Tory Party leader Badenoch, who seems to be a gibbering bigoted ignoramus on a good day, seems to get it:

UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch: “Ukraine fights for all of Europe. Russia isn’t an ally—Ukraine is. We must preserve its territorial integrity, support it with US help.” She added that a peace deal with territorial loss is just a “reward for Putin’s aggression.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:40 AM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

In Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, the Russian army targeted a civilian car with a drone, injuring a local doctor.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:21 AM

Russians launched around 10 glide bombs on the Kupiansk districts of the Kharkiv region overnight, killing one person and injuring four others.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:26 AM

Sumy Oblast:

Ouch!

A Russian assault group on quad bikes simultaneously drives over mines while attempting to attack Ukrainian positions.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 2:22 PM

I’m sure that’ll buff right out.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Ukrainian scouts from the 92nd Assault Brigade, using a Shark UAV, detected an enemy logistics base and coordinated a devastating artillery strike on it, likely on the Kursk front.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 3:18 AM

Per DeepState, fighting in Kursk continues this morning, despite Russian leadership’s claims of “liberating” the region. The enemy remains active near Gornal and Oleshnya, the last villages under Ukrainian control.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 2:32 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

🐿🇺🇦 Come down my darling, I’ve brought you some food.
Don’t worry! You’re safe! 🫂

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 10:25 AM

Open thread!

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    13Comments

    1. 1.

      Jay

      April 27, 2025 at 10:35 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Jay

      April 27, 2025 at 10:41 pm

      Anton Gerashchenko
      @Gerashchenko_en
      7h
      Glory to our defenders!

      📹: user3575816234619/TikTok

      Sound on,

      https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1916577626254090281#m

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Jay

      April 27, 2025 at 10:49 pm

      OSINTtechnical
      @Osinttechnical
      Apr 27
      Ukrainian factories are reportedly producing up to 36 2S22 Bohdana 155mm self-propelled artillery systems every month.

      That figure represents a massive increase in Ukrainian defense production capabilities, making the Bohdana one of the most widely produced SPHs in the world.

      Apr 27, 2025 · 12:33 AM UTC

      OSINTtechnical
      @Osinttechnical
      Apr 27
      To put things in context, the raw production figure is only closely matched by the PCL-181 SPH, with the manufacturing power of Norinco (unk but likely 200+ per annum), and the South Korean K-9 (240 annum), primarily built in Hanwha Aerospace’s Plant 3.

      breakingdefense.com/2023/11/…

      OSINTtechnical
      @Osinttechnical
      Apr 27
      The capacity, especially raw barrel production, is an immense leap for the Ukrainian defense industry.

      With the introduction of the towed 2P22 Bohdana, Ukrainian factories are most likely producing a glut of 155mm barrels.

      Source- army-technology.com/news/ukr…

      https://nitter.poast.org/Osinttechnical/status/1916289653038031139#m

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Jay

      April 27, 2025 at 10:50 pm

      Heartbreaking day here.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 27, 2025 at 10:50 pm

      @Jay: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      wjca

      April 27, 2025 at 10:53 pm

      The Kremlin will keep putting forth completely unacceptable demands in order to make it seem Ukraine is to blame for a lack of progress in the “peace process.”

      The obvious response is for Ukraine to propose an unconditional ceasefire.   Based on Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.  That is, Russia simply withdraws from Ukraine.  Including Crimea.  If they won’t (and they won’t,  we know),  then it’s Russia impeding the peace process.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Jay

      April 27, 2025 at 11:20 pm

      @wjca:

      Everybody but the US, the Norks, the Taliban, Iran, etc, knows that ruZzia is the baddies, and now the US is as well.

      Facts and reality don’t exist in the US, just ruZZian propaganda.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Westyny

      April 27, 2025 at 11:33 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      AlaskaReader

      April 27, 2025 at 11:53 pm

      Thanks Adam

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 28, 2025 at 12:17 am

      @Westyny: @AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

      April 28, 2025 at 12:29 am

      Thank you Adam.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team

      April 28, 2025 at 12:30 am

      Ty Adam. No reply needed.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Adam L Silverman

      April 28, 2025 at 12:36 am

      @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: @AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team: You’re welcome.

      Reply

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