(Image by NEIVANMADE)
It is 10:4o PM EDT/5;40 AM local time in Ukraine and air raid alerts are up over all of eastern Ukraine fro drone swarms.
Kharkiv is currently under attack.
From 6 minutes ago:
Here we go again. Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 10:32 PM
25 minutes ago:
Russia just hit Kharkiv with 17 drones. There are fires and smoke in several places in the city.
The attack began at 4 in the morning, most of the citizens were asleep and didn’t know about the danger.— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 10:13 PM
45 minutes ago:
14th explosion in Kharkiv ‼️fucking alcoholic genocidal twatgoblins
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Now we wait to see what the butcher’s bill is.
The reason:
🇺🇦🫂 Tears of relief are quietly rolling down their cheeks, but no one notices them, because at this moment there is only the warmth of each other and the feeling that they are finally home together.
Every day, the war steals the most precious thing – time with your loved ones.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 4:16 PM
President Zelenskyy was still in Prague today for meetings, so there is no daily address.
Just President Zelensky casually hangs out with Ukrainian cleaning staff at the Czech parliament
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 9:41 AM
He did participate in a joint press conference with Czech Prime Minister Petro Fiala:
First Lady Zelenska was also quite busy in Prague. She attended the launch of a Ukrainian book shelf at the National Library of the Czech Republic.
She also addressed the Healthcare Initiative for Ukraine conference:
Georgia:
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 159— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 2:26 PM
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 159— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 2:26 PM
So grateful for these people, who always show up. 🇬🇪✊
Day 159 of daily #GeorgiaProtests
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Nutsa Makharadze is outspoken critic of Georgian dream.
She was attacked with pepper spray and malachite green next to the elevator in her apartment building.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The political insult during the attack was “you UNM!”
It’s rapidly crystallized that for a regime supporter, UNM era was unacceptable for fast progress and development, and now anyone and everyone who opposes the stagnant and soul-sucking “stability” is a UNM.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 4:42 PM
She has a first-degree skin burn.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 5:17 PM
In Georgia, an activist – whom I know from shared friends for 18 years – was attacked with the same shade of ink used in political intimidation tactics across Russia. The message is clear—and chilling.
— Tornike Metreveli (@metreveli.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 5:02 PM
“This is the justice that we have – black and dark!” – Party member women are having a protest at Tbilisi City Court.
They also brought a wooden cart since a Georgian expression says that justice might come with a wooden cart (so, slowly), but it does come. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 7:08 AM
History has been made for Georgia – the US House of Representatives has passed the MEGOBARI Act.
Congressman Joe Wilson will be held by the history of Georgia in the highest regard! It isn’t usual when one man can stand up to be such a heroic figure for a friendly nation.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Serbian students now demand early elections and a unified parliamentary list.
Amazing!
And what a relief to know that nobody in Serbia will be able to use the argument of a “boogie UNM” to disturb a unified list. *chuckles in Georgian*
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
NATO:
Reuters reports that the U.S. and allies plan to send more Patriot systems to Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit. Potential suppliers include the U.S. and Greece, with possible relocations from Germany or Greece still under discussion.
www.reuters.com/world/allies…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 12:11 PM
From Reuters:
BERLIN, May 5 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s Western allies are in discussions about supplying additional Patriot air defence systems to Kyiv and aim to reach an agreement before a NATO summit at the end of June, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday.
Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get more Patriots, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy telling CBS news last month his government was ready to buy 10 of the U.S.-made air defence systems that are vital for shooting down Russian ballistic missiles.
According to Ukrainian Defence Express military analysts, as of April this year, Ukraine had seven fully operational Patriot systems.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. and Greece were among potential suppliers of the additional systems.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the matter said the effort to provide more Patriots to Ukraine was a program approved under former President Joe Biden, a Democrat, which President Donald Trump, a Republican, had not halted.
Athens later ruled out its involvement in the plan.
“There is no question of supplying Ukraine with Patriot systems from Greece,” a government official told Reuters.
Defence is a sensitive issue for Greece due to long-standing disputes with its neighbour and NATO ally Turkey.
Athens, which has previously sent thousands of rockets, explosives, infantry-fighting vehicles, or IFVs, high explosive incendiaries, ammunition and anti-tank rockets to Ukraine, reiterated last year that it could not provide the country with Patriots.
Quoting U.S. officials, the New York Times reported on Sunday that Washington was planning to send a Patriot system that was based in Israel to Ukraine after it is refurbished.
It added that allies were talking about “the logistics of Germany or Greece” giving another one.
Israel is retiring eight Patriot batteries with their interceptors. Ukraine has been trying to acquire them for well over a year. They’re getting one once it’s refurbished.
Britain:
Ukrainian military personnel participated in a parade in London marking the 80th anniversary of Victory Day.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Love how the VE Day parade started 👏
“RAF Veteran Alan Kennett who is 100 years old, officially started events”
Kings Guard, “Thank you, and your generation, for securing our freedom 80 years ago”
“May I have your permission to start the parade sir please?”
Alan Kennett, “Carry on sir”
— Farrukh (@implausibleblog.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Back to Ukraine.
“Russia wants to settle.”
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, we expect another major russian drone attack tonight. Does russia knows that they want to settle?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 2:41 PM
It looks like there will be a very large drone attack by democratic Ukraine against fascist Russia tonight. Reports of drone activity from Russian sources, map by t.me/dronbomber.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 5:01 PM
The special unit “KRAKEN” eliminates three Russian infantrymen who tried to remain unnoticed while attempting to move at night.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 6:09 AM
Ukrainian diplomat names an alternative to NATO for Ukraine.
According to former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko, the alternative involves joining the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which unites 10 Northern European countries.
www.radiosvoboda.org/a/vadym-prys…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Here’s a machine translation from the interview at Radio Svoboda:
Can we forget about NATO?
– Mr. Ambassador, but about NATO, I understand so, in the picture of Trump and in the picture of his peace plan, it is also worth forgetting.
– True tragedy?
– Well, is it true or not?
– Looks really like that. We talked to ourselves for 25-20 years. Not much has been done, but at least we have said that we want to become a member of NATO. Different presidents, different leaders spoke there more or less, but the general idea was this. We have not become, now we say: «So what is NATO for us if it cannot protect us?»
You are not family members. They protect the family. Good/ bad, there are internal problems – Trump comes out, Trump comes in – doesn’t matter. We are not members of this family, we never became. We were left alone with the enemy. In particular, because our people did not support this idea, they for some reason believed these fables that «we are one people » and all these other things.
– But should we forget about NATO? Is there any other hope? I will use the moment here to say that the score is 5 points of victory, or «Vladimir Zelensky’s victory plan», the first point – Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
– You know, there is a British-led expeditionary corps that includes 10 northern European countries, our best friends. That if Ukraine, for example, could be a member of this security association, it would be easier for us. Britain rules, there is no Hungary, for example. These are all like-minded people. That is to be part of such a union and to maintain a very powerful own army – is a real way out for us.
If, say, we can’t count on the United States, which is the backbone of the Alliance. Maybe people don’t quite understand. The Alliance is based on the United States’ nuclear deterrence force. Nothing else. Not Estonian medical units or Croatian logistics. Nuclear deterrence forces. If the United States leaves, this Alliance will not live long.
– And I still repeat the question. NATO pause? Is it real that what you see now, does it still make sense to fight and remind? Because I had to hear such a point of view, including from your colleagues not in public. They say: «Just if we fight for NATO now and on every site remind the world that we want in NATO, we will just spend time on it ».
– What are they ready to fight for? You and I will not be able to become a nuclear power for many reasons, because the predecessors of the current government and the previous government, they have lost many things. Not only nuclear weapons and the Budapest Memorandum, as we all know.
And in 2010 we got rid of highly enriched uranium. We have become a country that has no right to have highly enriched uranium and continue to experiment with nuclear weapons. In general. We have the right to have only low-enriched uranium for medical needs, scientific and so on. We are not even in a league where the theory has the ability to create our own nuclear weapons.
That is, this question, unfortunately, is not to say – removed. We must count on nuclear safety to be ensured by someone. In this part of the planet, they can only be provided by France, Britain as members of a nuclear club, and the United States.
If the United States leaves NATO, NATO ceases to exist. Our task – is to become somehow, to find a new form of interaction with our European colleagues.
Here’s the full video with English subtitles turned on:
Russian occupied Crimea:
Seriously? No May 9th parade in Sevastopol? And what happened this time?
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Izium Kharkiv Oblast:
Russian bombings sparked devastating wildfires in the Kharkiv region. Around Izium, the blaze raged for over two days, eventually spreading to residential areas and engulfing homes in flames.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast:
A Russian glide bomb destroyed a firefighters’ station in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv region. Yesterday, they struck another one in Kupyansk.
Their level of cynicism knows no bounds-daily bombings are brutal enough, but targeting those who risk their lives to help is beyond contempt
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast:
Today, Russia attacked Zolochiv in the Kharkiv region with glide bombs, destroying one household, damaging 22 others, and injuring four people, including two boys aged 4 and 12
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 6:06 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Reports Ukraine breached border of Russia’s Kursk Oblast again, near Tetkino. Using Seym river to protect their left flank, and the Ukraine/Russia border on the right, they could nip off a 50km2 chunk of Russia with a defendable 6km front in time for fascist Russia’s Victory Day.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 5:47 AM
bsky.app/profile/noel…
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 6:12 AM
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 10:44 AM
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Russian occupied Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast:
In the half-destroyed city of Lysychansk (Luhansk region), where there’s still no communication, the Russians — rather than addressing basic human needs or starting any real reconstruction — are busy painting Victory Day graffiti. As if slogans could cover up devastation.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Saratov, Russia:
Partisans of the “ATESH” movement set fire to a transformer substation in Saratov, Russia, disrupting power at two base stations. Key industrial sites, including GazPromMash oil refinery, Pirogroup factory, and a mobilization center, lost electricity.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Last night, some unidentified drones attacked the Moscow suburbs. The “Carpet” security plan was activated at Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports.
Everything’s going according to plan — they’re just getting ready for the parade.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 8:58 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Patron got a spa day!
@patron__dsns 🤥😶🌫️ #песпатрон
And there’s a new petting zoo in Kharkiv:
“alpaca valley” in Kharkiv 😍
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 9:39 AM
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 5, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Open thread!
George
Adam: Paul Warburg has a Youtube channel in which he discusses foreign policy stuff, much of it to do with Russia’s future. Any thoughts on Warburg’s reputation or legitimacy? Thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@George: Never heard of him.
Wombat Probability Cloud
Adam, thanks. I think, perhaps naively, that Putin’s focus on civilian targets won’t be enough over the next year or so, compared to the strategic thinking of Ukraine. Despite the anguish and horror, UKR’s response will be a resounding FU and let’s continue to be smart and hammer Russia where it hurts.
ps – Warburg’s video posts seem legit. Can’t say all are correct but they are food for thought.
Adam L Silverman
@Wombat Probability Cloud: You’re most welcome.
The Ukrainians have not broken and I do not expect them too, which is why Putin’s/Russia’s strategy isn’t and most likely won’t work.
Bill Arnold
(Dropping this here because it’s NATSEC-related, sort of.)
Interesting. (There are non-state actors who can (and are motivated to) do this sort of thing. Just saying. Given just this info, could also be a state actor, though. On heels of the reported TeleMessage (TM Signal) hacking/breach and report of some unmasking of APT28 people.)
GlobalX, Airline for Trump’s Deportations, Hacked (Joseph Cox, Jason Koebler, MAY 5, 2025, 404 Media)
(archive link)
These are sometimes called “token theft attacks”(Microsoft-specific link). Acquire token (a long random bit sequence) granted after user authenticates (even with 2FA), reuse it to access everything the token gives the token owner access to, until the token expires. Token theft, along with phishing (which can be very tricksy), are the major approaches at the moment.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
I’ve got to rack out. Everyone is most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
Quick question before I go: anyone seen YY recently? It’s been well over a week since I saw him comment in one of these update posts.
George
Thanks Adam and Wombat.
Adam L Silverman
@George: You’re welcome.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam. I, too, am missing YY.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Timill
@Adam L Silverman: Posted on John’s open thread last night at comment 29