Air raid alerts are up for all of eastern and most of central Ukraine as drone swarms make their way across Ukraine from east to west as of 7:20 PM EDT/2:20 AM local time in Ukraine. These late night/early morning attacks follow another early morning and long day of genocidal attacks by Russia against Ukrainian civilian targets.
🙏🇺🇦 The mother of the defender, who during today’s exchange was in a hurry to see her son and was speeding. She was stopped by the police, but immediately released after learning the reason.
Another young man was met by his sisters after 1.5 years of separation and congratulated on his 25th birthday.
Ukraine secured the return of 205 soldiers in a one-for-one prisoner exchange with Russia that was mediated by the United Arab Emirates, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Telegram on May 6.
“Ukraine has returned 205 soldiers. Young men and adult men from almost all types and branches of the military. The defenders of Mariupol and the defenders of the entire front line,” Zelensky wrote.
This marks the fifth known prisoner of war (POWs) swap of 2025 and the 64th since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
“Every day, we fight for our people. We will definitely do everything to return each and every one of them,” the president added.
The latest exchange follows a larger April 19 swap, when 277 Ukrainian soldiers returned home ahead of the Easter holiday.
Ukraine does not reveal the exact figures on how many Ukrainian POWs are held in Russia. According to Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, Russia holds over 16,000 Ukrainian civilians in detention.
In 2024, Kyiv proposed an all-for-all exchange of prisoners, but Moscow rejected the offer.
Of course Moscow did.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
During This War, We Have Already Managed to Bring Home 4,757 People From Captivity – Address by the President
6 May 2025 – 20:53
Dear Ukrainians!
The most important news today is that another 205 of our warriors have returned home from Russian captivity. Two hundred and two of them are privates and non-commissioned officers, three are officers. Defenders of Mariupol and the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk regions, our Kharkiv and Sumy regions. I thank all our team working on the exchanges: all the guys at the Coordination Headquarters, I want to thank every institution – these are Defense Intelligence, the Office of the President, the Security Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs – all those who are helping. During this war, we have already managed to bring home 4,757 people from captivity. And of course, I am grateful to every soldier, every commander, all our units that are on the frontlines, ensuring the replenishment of the exchange fund. Our ability to bring our people back is the result of the bravery of our warriors, who skillfully fight and capture the occupiers. We must bring all our people home.
Today, I also congratulated Ukrainian warriors on Infantry Day. Motorized infantry, mountain assault, mechanized, rifle units are the very backbone of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the foundation of our army, all those who physically hold the lines, reclaim positions, and raise our flag. Ukraine stands because our infantry stands. Because no matter what happens, the front line and Ukraine’s positions are exactly where our infantrymen are. I thank all our warriors!
Today, I held a Staff meeting. Several key issues were on the agenda. In particular, provision for our army – financial support. The Minister of Finance of Ukraine delivered a report. We are working to ensure complete stability in the financial provision for our warriors. Another important topic discussed at today’s Staff meeting was the protection of Ukraine’s skies, particularly the downing of “Shahed” drones, including with the use of other drones. This is one of the most advanced technologies in modern warfare. And I am grateful to everyone who is implementing it – those who are providing this capability, new to any army, to use drones in protecting our country from drones. Today, I instructed the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to work more actively with our partners to ensure funding for the production of just such interceptors. We will develop this direction as much as possible, and each region will have its own area of responsibility for this very work.
And one more thing.
I congratulate Friedrich Merz on being elected the new Chancellor of Germany. Germany is one of our key friends, truly one of the leaders in supporting Ukraine. This applies, above all, to air defenses – the largest number of Patriot and IRIS-T systems supplied by a single country has come specifically from Germany. These are thousands of saved lives. Germany is also a leader in supporting our financial resilience. Ukraine greatly values our cooperation. We are preparing for our first talks with Mr. Chancellor. We have things with him that can economically strengthen both our countries and offer greater security for decades to come. We look forward to our meeting. I wish him success in his position. Overall, the coming weeks are expected to be very active for Ukraine in diplomacy. We are preparing decisions, and we are preparing new support packages. We are planning new measures to increase pressure on Russia – to protect our people. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelensky also congratulated Ukrainian infantry on Infantry Day:
Georgia:
Day 160 of uninterrupted #GeorgiaProtests
Georgians express gratitude to the United States for the House of Representatives passing the MEGOBARI Act.
On Sunday, an entire march of gratitude towards the US Embassy in Tbilisi is planned. We look forward to the bill becoming law.
Beating women, just like rape threats by the regime police amid crackdowns, is how the Georgian Dream protects traditional Georgian values. #terrorinGeorgia
It seems police may be actively destroying evidence in this case.
Elene Kaikhosroshvili, a friend of the victim, claims the bottle with the dye went missing during the night and reappeared in the morning — empty. Police were “guarding the scene of the crime” throughout.
Shameless people. “The Trump administration earlier this year urged the Ukrainian government to accept an unspecified number of U.S. deportees who are citizens of other countries” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec…
The Trump administration earlier this year urged the Ukrainian government to accept an unspecified number of U.S. deportees who are citizens of other countries, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post, an extraordinary request of a nation at war and dependent on American military and financial support for its survival.
The documents do not indicate how officials in Kyiv responded to the late-January proposal, relayed by a senior U.S. diplomat, that called for sending third-country nationals to Ukraine amid Russia’s deadly, devastating invasion — and despite the absence of a functioning airport there b continual air attacks. A Ukrainian diplomat informed the U.S. Embassy only that her government would offer a response once it formulated a position, according to the documents, which show that similar proposals were issued to a number of other countries around the same date.
Ukraine has not accepted any third-party nationals from the United States, and there is no indication that Kyiv seriously considered the American proposal. Two Ukrainian officials familiar with the matter, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss interactions with the Trump administration, said the topic never reached the government’s highest level. One of the officials said he was unaware of any “political demands” made by the United States regarding its desire for Ukraine to take in deportees.
The State Department said in a statement that “ongoing engagement with foreign governments” was “vital to deterring illegal and mass migration and securing our borders.” The agency referred questions about the Ukraine proposal to the Department of Homeland Security, which did not respond to requests for comment.
Yael Schacher, director for the Americas and Europe at the humanitarian organization Refugees International, said it appears the Trump administration is targeting governments “it knows want to curry favor and are under pressure.”
Both before and after last year’s election, Trump’s rhetoric repeatedly signaled his willingness to leverage Ukraine’s reliance on U.S. military aid, pronouncements that appeared to grow more brash once he entered office in January. Tensions peaked in late February, with a remarkable Oval Office argument between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, cooling slightly only after Kyiv conceded to some of the administration’s demands, including an agreement granting U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.
Schacher, an immigration historian, also noted the administration’s efforts to woo Rwanda — an African nation with a poor human rights record that is also at the center of U.S.-led efforts to end a long-running conflict. Its leaders have agreed to take in third-country nationals deported by the U.S.
Previous U.S. governments have worked with foreign nations to receive third-country nationals, Schacher said, “but the extent of this outreach is new.”
“What’s unusual,” she added, “is the variety of arrangements, their ad hoc nature, their clear quid pro quos and the amount of money the administration will put behind them.”
Washington’s outreach to Kyiv came in the first days of the new administration, as the president continued to tout his ambitious goal of brokering a peace deal while expressing deep misgivings about the vast sums of assistance that his predecessor, President Joe Biden, had provided to Ukraine. The new U.S. administration also considered ending some Biden-era provisions that allowed Ukrainian citizens to stay in the United States.
Documents reviewed by The Post record a Ukrainian diplomat telling U.S. counterparts that while Ukraine had a “solid track record of accepting the return of its citizens when removed by the United States,” the government in Kyiv faces the prevailing reality of “wartime exigencies.”
Former U.S. officials said the U.S.-Ukraine dialogue about deportations was unusual and not part of any routine diplomatic correspondence.
⚡️ Hegseth reportedly ordered Ukraine aid pause without Trump’s knowledge.
The suspension affected 11 shipments of artillery shells and weapons from Dover Air Force Base and a U.S. base in the United Arab Emirates.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s office ordered a temporary halt of military aid flights to Ukraine in early February without notifying the White House, Reuters reported on May 6, citing unnamed sources.
The suspension reportedly affected 11 shipments of artillery shells and weapons from Dover Air Force Base and a U.S. base in the United Arab Emirates.
The order, issued about a week after U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term, caused immediate concern in Kyiv and among officials in Poland, who contacted Washington for answers.
Top national security officials at the White House, Pentagon, and State Department were unaware of the decision and could not respond to inquiries.
The flights resumed Feb. 5, after a three-day pause, following an alleged intervention from U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, one source said.
Reuters reported in February that the United States briefly halted weapons shipments to Ukraine while the new White House administration debated its policies toward Kyiv.
The verbal order reportedly originated from Hegseth’s office after a Jan. 30 Oval Office meeting on Ukraine, where cutting off aid was discussed but not approved by Trump.
Four people familiar with the matter told Reuters a small group of Pentagon staffers, many with long-standing opposition to U.S. aid for Ukraine, had advised Hegseth to suspend assistance.
The president and other senior officials remained unaware of the suspension until Ukrainian and European partners raised concerns. The canceled flights reportedly cost U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) $2.2 million.
The weapons had been previously approved under the former President Joe Biden’s administration and authorized by Congress. Since Trump’s second term began in January, no new aid packages have been approved.
The U.S. temporarily halted military supplies for Ukraine in March before restarting them after Kyiv agreed to the truce plan during talks in Jeddah on March 11.
In an April 13 interview with CBS News, President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the U.S. to provide air defense support, saying Ukraine is ready to purchase 10 U.S.-made Patriot systems for $15 billion to protect major cities.
“We will find the money and pay for everything,” Zelensky said, emphasizing Ukraine’s intention to buy, not request, additional systems.
Trump rejected the request the next day, accusing Ukraine of “always looking to purchase missiles” and falsely blaming Kyiv for instigating the war.
Trump has not clarified whether U.S. military aid will continue if his peace talks with Russia fail, fueling concern among allies over Washington’s long-term commitment.
A Patriot air defense system based in Israel will be transferred to Ukraine after refurbishment, the New York Timesreported on May 4, citing four unnamed current and former U.S. officials.
Moscow has refused a 30-day ceasefire, demanding extraordinary concessions, including a halt to all foreign military aid to Ukraine.
This small group of Pentagon staffers with “long-standing opposition to US aid for Ukraine” would describe several of the senior political appointees who were fired last month. All of them come out of the Koch natsec network and are genteel isolationists. The staffers referred to in this reporting could be different ones, but it would not surprise me if it is that same group. Which would provide more context to their terminations. Trump has made it clear he’s not going to get rid of Hegseth, so someone would’ve had to take the fall for doing this without presidential authorization and notification.
As the air defense missile stocks run low and the future of the U.S. military aid to Ukraine grows increasingly uncertain, Kyiv is under pressure to defend its sky.
Concerns mount as Russia scales up its aerial attacks, combining ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense.
As the air defense missile stocks run low and the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine grows increasingly uncertain, Kyiv is under pressure to defend its sky.
The concerns mount as Russia scales up its aerial attacks across Ukraine, combining ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm air defenses. Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, are “definitely facing a shortage of (air defense) missiles,” a source in the Air Force told the Kyiv Independent.
Ukrainian aviation expert Anatolii Khrapchynskyi said that Russia has “radically changed” its tactics by targeting central Ukraine with ballistic missiles — instead of cruise missiles — such as Iskanders and upgraded North Korean variants.
“That’s an entirely different level of threat,” Khrapchynskyi told the Kyiv Independent.
While Kyiv remains the most protected city in Ukraine with the most prestigious Western air defense systems, the U.S.’s future steps and the worldwide shortage of air defense missiles due to their cost may impact its ability to protect civilians all over Ukraine, including the capital.
Among the most capable Western-provided air defense missiles manning Kyiv’s sky is the U.S.-made Patriot, which the U.S. confirmed had been used to shoot down the first Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile in May 2023.
The Patriot air defense systems have proved to be a game-changer for Ukraine, whose Air Force previously have had to rely on outdated Soviet-era versions to shoot down aerial targets.
Ukraine currently has only eight Patriot systems, two of which are currently not in service, according to the New York Times, which also reported that an additional Patriot system is on its way to Ukraine from Israel as part of a previously arranged commitment.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in April that Ukraine is ready to purchase additional air defense systems to protect its sky better.
The equipment — and most importantly, the ammunition — are limited in number to effectively use the mobile surface-to-air system for countering ballistic and cruise missiles, forcing Ukraine to conserve them even when Kyiv is under heavy attack, according to military experts interviewed.
Ukraine has to move its six operational Patriot systems, provided by Western allies over time, across the country to defend the sky from Russian missiles and drones, according to Ukrainian aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap.
Ukraine would ideally need at least two Patriot systems for every major city, such as Kyiv, Lviv, and Dnipro, to “more or less reliably” defend it using two radars to detect aerial threats, Kryvolap said.
There are seven cities across the country with a population of over 500,000 people, excluding Russian-occupied territories.
In a plea to Western allies to help defend civilians, Zelensky has repeatedly asked for more Patriots and ammunition for them. Details about the remaining missile stock remain unknown, as Kyiv has tightly guarded the information for operational security.
The shortage of Patriot missiles persists worldwide, as production is complicated and expensive. Kryvolap said that the American manufacturer Lockheed Martin can only produce about 500 a year, which wouldn’t be sufficient even if all the produced ammunition were allocated to Ukraine.
The company was awarded a government contract to increase the production of PAC-3 interceptors to 650 missiles per year in 2027.
Kryvolap stressed that at least two Patriot missiles are needed to intercept a ballistic missile with “a more or less high probability.”
Meanwhile, Russia constantly attempts to improve its ballistic missiles, posing additional challenges for Ukraine, according to the Air Force. “The enemy is still modernizing ballistic missiles,” its spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat, said in April.
Aviation expert Khrapchynskyi pointed out that the interceptor shortage had already become “critical” in 2024 when the delay in Western aid delivery coincided with Russia’s deployment of a new combination tactic using Shahed-type drones, ballistic missiles, Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles.
“We’re facing a shortage of interceptors, limited coverage, and no system can hold out for long without constant resupply,” Khrapchynskyi told the Kyiv Independent, underscoring that Ukraine would need at least eight or nine Patriot batteries in total, including at least three just for Kyiv.
“But even the best system is still just a platform. Without missiles, it’s just blinking lights,” he added.
More at the link.
I will emphasize, once again, that we are now over three years into this full scale re-invasion of Ukraine and the US defense industrial base is still not on a war footing. And it is not on a war footing because there is not demand for their products, but because two consecutive administrations have done nothing to actually put them on a war footing to drive more rapid expansion of manufacturing capabilities and, as a result, more manufacture of weapons systems and munitions. Even if you’ve bought into the notion that the PRC is the pacing problem set and we have to be ready because Xi ordered the PLA, PLAN, PLARF, etc to invade Taiwan in 2027, which is a misunderstanding of Xi’s guidance, then the US cannot meet that challenge wit the current state of its defense industrial base.
Back to Ukraine.
Russia’s best drone unit just flew an un-jammable attack drone at least six miles behind the front line in eastern Ukraine and blew up one of the Ukrainian army’s High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) wheeled launchers.
www.forbes.com/sites/davida…
Russia’s best drone unit just flew an un-jammable attack drone at least six miles behind the front line in eastern Ukraine and blew up one of the Ukrainian army’s precious High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems wheeled launchers.
It’s the fourth U.S.-made HIMARS the Russians have destroyed. And while the Ukrainians aren’t about to run out of HIMARS—there are around three dozen are left—the rate of loss could increase as Russia’s best drones strike deeper behind the front line.
The fast-moving HIMARS, each firing six 660-pound rockets as far as 57 miles, are some of Ukraine’s best weapons for striking Russian troop concentrations, headquarters, air-defense batteries and artillery. They’re top targets for Russian drones. But powerful electromagnetic jamming, which can ground radio-controlled drones, protects Ukrainian forces along the most critical stretches of the front.
But drones controlled via signals traveling along millimeters-thick but miles-long optical fiber “are impervious to any jamming,” explained “Roy,” an expert in electronic warfare. As Russian forces have deployed more and more fiber-optic drones, the HIMARS have become more vulnerable—especially while traveling along main roads in daytime.
It’s worrying for the Ukrainians, but hardly surprising given the rapid evolution of drone technology, that a fiber-optic drone hunted down and struck a HIMARS reportedly near Chasiv Yar on or just before Tuesday. The crew may have bailed out following the strike, but the $20-million launcher is a total write-off.
More at the link.
The question will be how quickly can Ukraine innovate a countermeasure.
The newly presented Ukrainian prototype, FP-1, drone. Range – 1,600km and a warhead – 120kg.
What makes it especially notable is the absence of landing gear and the use of a rocket booster for launch — a design choice that could significantly simplify launch operations
In Kyiv, Ukraine unveiled its latest weaponry: strike drones and self-propelled artillery systems.
Among the exhibits was the Ukrainian drone “Bulava,” developed by the Ukrainian-Czech company UAC. This drone is equipped with a powerful 3.6 kg cumulative-thermobaric warhead.
Here are the maps of Ukraine’s strikes on Russia tonight:
Tonight’s Ukrainian drone attacks on fascist Russia – drones mostly in NE directions, including several heading for Moscow. 3rd night in a row Russian capital bring targeted. Map compiled from Russian sources by t.me/dronbomber.
Russia attacked Zaporizhzhia with Shahed drones. A series of explosions occurred in the city.
According to preliminary information, there is destruction, and people may be trapped under the rubble.
Russia is determined to make Kharkiv uninhabitable. Again and again, the city rises from the ruins only to be hit again. Last night, 20 drones struck, targeting Kharkiv’s largest market and damaging homes.
During the night, Kharkiv came under a massive Shahed drone attack. One of the UAVs struck the Barabashovo market — one of the largest shopping centers in Ukraine and Europe. In total, the city was hit 20 times overnight, leaving four people injured.
Behold, the highly classified Ukrainian military installation… cleverly disguised beneath this pile of charred clothing. My mistake, though. Turns out it’s just what it looks like: a clothing market that Russia decided to bomb for kicks.
Russia has once again struck the largest market in Kharkiv. This section of the market sold clothes and children’s toys—the same place where half of Belgorod and Kursk came to shop before the full-scale war.
Kyiv under attack by ballistic missiles launched from fascist Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. Only a couple of minutes between sirens going off, sound of interceptor missiles launching, and then this…
Flash of light in sky at 2 seconds is probably an interception (I heard sound of interceptor missiles launching before I started filming), and first bang comes 15 seconds later, so it was about 5km from me. Four bangs in all, second more distant than others.
In broad daylight, Russia launched a ballistic strike on the outskirts of Sumy, targeting civilian infrastructure. Three people were killed, and most of the injured are children.
A Ukrainian drone flies over Ramenskoye, SE of Moscow. A few minutes later it was destroyed by air defense forces, Russian authorities say. Threat continues, with drones attempting to break through air defenses around Moscow from several directions, Russian media say.
Muscovites getting used to a sound very familiar to Ukrainians – the “lawnmower” engine sound of an attack drone overhead. Ukraine attacked the Russian capital for the second night in a row early May 6, forcing closure of all 4 of Moscow’s main airports.
Russian air defenses were so heroically “protecting” Moscow from drones last night that one of their own missiles proudly parked itself in the living room of a high-rise apartment in suburban Podolsk.
🫡🇺🇦 Meet Runa. She is 26, and she leads the crew of an anti-aircraft gun on the front line.
Her dugout is very cozy – it smells of fresh flowers and books.
Runa feeds all the surrounding animals, and her faithful dog Shonik patiently waits for her mistress from every trip.
I wait for these posts everyday. I noticed today I read for quite a bit while holding my breath. Thank you for doing this.
Congress is, once more, not allocating the funds we would need to place us on a war footing from what I can tell about the gop budget mess. It is more important to guarantee tax cuts for extraordinarily wealthy people, apparently.
If the DOD & the bulk of the “Blob” are really convinced that war w/ the PRC is inevitable by 2027, they would be pile the vast majority of the procurement spending toward stockpiling existing mature platforms & munitions, rather than sinking so much funding into capabilities (many having a lot of technological risk) that won’t become available until well into the 2030s (such as the NGAD, the Columbia SSBN, nuclear modernization).
Either they are not sincere in their rhetoric, & the fear mongering/threat inflation is meant to drum up defense spending & support for Primacist foreign policy & promote other reactionary goals, or they are sincere but are too incompetent to execute against their own expected scenario.
@Urza: I am not planning too. I just do these Ukrainian war updates with a bit about Georgia because the Georgians are near and dear as I served alongside Georgian Soldiers in Iraq in 2008.
@Adam L Silverman: I took my older daughter on a vacation for the last 10 days, & took my mind off of most News.
I had also beens pending more time in other threads, w/ the ongoing & escalating trade wars. Crazy times we live in.
I did skim through that opinion piece. Both are respectable China Watchers, but they are not offering anything deeper than idle speculation that one might find from Beijing taxi drivers.
As for the initial framing, the “if necessary” is the important qualifier that most readers & commentators tend to overlook. When one looks at the organization reforms, the systems procurements (for platforms, weapons & sustainment), the training scenarios & the peace time/greyzone operations, it is quite clear that Xi is serious in his directive to the PLA (supported by the China Coast Guard & the People’s Armed Police) to achieve the capability to execute a range of Taiwan related scenarios, & that the PLA & the PRC MIC are serious are carrying out the directive.
The PLA is already capable for implementing & probably sustaining a blockade of Taiwan today, & is working toward having the capability to mount an amphibious invasion of the islands. 2027 is merely a convenient timing checkpoint (because the CPC regime loves anniversaries, 2027 is the centennial for the founding of the PLA) for the PLA, to work toward having the capability to mount an amphibious invasion w/ a realistic chance of success. The PLA moderation will continue beyond 2027 (just look at the 2 different “6th gen” fighters under flight testing), & the next check point is 2045 (the centennial for the founding for the PRC), when the PLA is supposed to be a world class military & the PRC at the forefront on every aspect of national power.
While the DOD is expected to react to & prepare against PLA capabilities, capabilities do not in fact equate to intent, & it is the job of the policymakers to attempt to gain insight to Xi’s & the CPC regime’s intent, & formulate policies (not just defense, but economic & foreign policies) accordingly. My read of the Xi’s current anti-corruption campaign against parts of the PLA’s & the PRC MIC’s leadership is to whip them into shape against the 2027 checkpoint, & root out potential vulnerabilities as much as possible. I don’t think that affects any decision for or against military against vis-a-vis Taiwan, one way or the other. I think the chief deterrent against PRC YOLOing military action against Taiwan, especially an amphibious invasions, are the huge challenges & risks associated w/ amphibious invasions (even if the PLA achieves Xi’s directive in 2027 & beyond), & the extraordinary damage to the PRC economy even if it succeeds in the invasion.
The much more important goal is the 2045 one, & getting Taiwan back in the fold by that date is sort of a capstone, rather than stepping stone. If anything, Trump’s economic warfare & threatened financial warfare just makes the 2045 goal that much more salient. Capturing Taiwan (suffering enormous damage in so doing, even if the attempt is successful), does little in the meantime to better position the PRC toward 2045 objective. The PLA modernization & the buildup of coercive & invasion capabilities is to deter Taiwan from salami slicing its way to take on greater trappings of de jure independence before 2045, to convince the US/Japan to ditch Taiwan as a lost cause, & to convince Taiwan to eventually sue for terms w/ the PRC, & last to maximize the chance that the PRC prevails should any war be fought.
Ironically, during the transition Trump had said that he would slap 100% tariffs on all PRC imports if Xi actually orders an invasion of Taiwan, & that would deter Xi. Well, he has already played that card & more in his shambolic omnidirectional trade war, so that is gone as a deterring factor. Shambolic foreign policymaking on top of shambolic trade policymaking.
At the rate Trump is trashing the US, economically and otherwise, Xi might see it possible to absorb the extraordinary damage from invading Taiwan, but still hold on to a preeminent pisition vis-a-vis the US.
@wjca: Not vis-a-vis other powers such as India, the EU, Russia, Indonesia, etc. There is more to the world than the U.S. & the PRC. The very definition of multipolarity.
@YY_Sima Qian: 2049 is the centennial of the PRC’s founding, so 2049 is the checkpoint for (re-)achieving China’s “national greatness”, not 2045 as I wrote. Brain fart on my part.
OT: The US bombing campaign against the Houthis was destined to fail. That fastest route to getting the Houthis to ramp down its attacks on civilian shipping in the Red Sea & Israel is to get a new ceasefire agreement in Gaza ASAP.
By Robert F. Worth For anyone who has wondered what an “America First” foreign policy looks like, Donald Trump provided a vivid example today when he declared a cease-fire with the Houthis, the Yemeni militia that has been under U.S. bombardment for the past seven weeks.The Houthis have “capitulated” and agreed to no longer target American ships, Trump said, interrupting a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney with an impromptu announcement that appeared to take some of his own team by surprise. In exchange, the United States will cease its aerial war on the Houthis, the president said.
In other words, the U.S. has extracted itself from the conflict but not ended it. There is no sign that the Houthis will end their war with Israel. They struck near Israel’s main airport with a missile on Sunday, setting off a round of violence in which Israel bombarded sites across Yemen today, leaving the country’s main airport in flames. The Houthis issued a defiant bulletin saying that the Israeli attacks “will not pass without a response” and that the Houthi government “will not abandon its position regarding Gaza.” …
funlady75
Thanks Adam…loved the birthday cake video….
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@funlady75: @Jay: You’re most welcome.
HopefullyNotcassandra
I wait for these posts everyday. I noticed today I read for quite a bit while holding my breath. Thank you for doing this.
Congress is, once more, not allocating the funds we would need to place us on a war footing from what I can tell about the gop budget mess. It is more important to guarantee tax cuts for extraordinarily wealthy people, apparently.
YY_Sima Qian
Thanks Adam!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
If the DOD & the bulk of the “Blob” are really convinced that war w/ the PRC is inevitable by 2027, they would be pile the vast majority of the procurement spending toward stockpiling existing mature platforms & munitions, rather than sinking so much funding into capabilities (many having a lot of technological risk) that won’t become available until well into the 2030s (such as the NGAD, the Columbia SSBN, nuclear modernization).
Either they are not sincere in their rhetoric, & the fear mongering/threat inflation is meant to drum up defense spending & support for Primacist foreign policy & promote other reactionary goals, or they are sincere but are too incompetent to execute against their own expected scenario.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I was beginning to get worried, hadn’t seen you here in a few weeks. Did you see this? Notice the initial framing?
Adam L Silverman
@HopefullyNotcassandra: You’re most welcome. Thank you for the kind words.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: @AlaskaReader: You’re both welcome.
Urza
Off topic, will you be posting about the India Pakistan mess?
Adam L Silverman
@Urza: I am not planning too. I just do these Ukrainian war updates with a bit about Georgia because the Georgians are near and dear as I served alongside Georgian Soldiers in Iraq in 2008.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I took my older daughter on a vacation for the last 10 days, & took my mind off of most News.
I had also beens pending more time in other threads, w/ the ongoing & escalating trade wars. Crazy times we live in.
I did skim through that opinion piece. Both are respectable China Watchers, but they are not offering anything deeper than idle speculation that one might find from Beijing taxi drivers.
As for the initial framing, the “if necessary” is the important qualifier that most readers & commentators tend to overlook. When one looks at the organization reforms, the systems procurements (for platforms, weapons & sustainment), the training scenarios & the peace time/greyzone operations, it is quite clear that Xi is serious in his directive to the PLA (supported by the China Coast Guard & the People’s Armed Police) to achieve the capability to execute a range of Taiwan related scenarios, & that the PLA & the PRC MIC are serious are carrying out the directive.
The PLA is already capable for implementing & probably sustaining a blockade of Taiwan today, & is working toward having the capability to mount an amphibious invasion of the islands. 2027 is merely a convenient timing checkpoint (because the CPC regime loves anniversaries, 2027 is the centennial for the founding of the PLA) for the PLA, to work toward having the capability to mount an amphibious invasion w/ a realistic chance of success. The PLA moderation will continue beyond 2027 (just look at the 2 different “6th gen” fighters under flight testing), & the next check point is 2045 (the centennial for the founding for the PRC), when the PLA is supposed to be a world class military & the PRC at the forefront on every aspect of national power.
While the DOD is expected to react to & prepare against PLA capabilities, capabilities do not in fact equate to intent, & it is the job of the policymakers to attempt to gain insight to Xi’s & the CPC regime’s intent, & formulate policies (not just defense, but economic & foreign policies) accordingly. My read of the Xi’s current anti-corruption campaign against parts of the PLA’s & the PRC MIC’s leadership is to whip them into shape against the 2027 checkpoint, & root out potential vulnerabilities as much as possible. I don’t think that affects any decision for or against military against vis-a-vis Taiwan, one way or the other. I think the chief deterrent against PRC YOLOing military action against Taiwan, especially an amphibious invasions, are the huge challenges & risks associated w/ amphibious invasions (even if the PLA achieves Xi’s directive in 2027 & beyond), & the extraordinary damage to the PRC economy even if it succeeds in the invasion.
The much more important goal is the 2045 one, & getting Taiwan back in the fold by that date is sort of a capstone, rather than stepping stone. If anything, Trump’s economic warfare & threatened financial warfare just makes the 2045 goal that much more salient. Capturing Taiwan (suffering enormous damage in so doing, even if the attempt is successful), does little in the meantime to better position the PRC toward 2045 objective. The PLA modernization & the buildup of coercive & invasion capabilities is to deter Taiwan from salami slicing its way to take on greater trappings of de jure independence before 2045, to convince the US/Japan to ditch Taiwan as a lost cause, & to convince Taiwan to eventually sue for terms w/ the PRC, & last to maximize the chance that the PRC prevails should any war be fought.
Ironically, during the transition Trump had said that he would slap 100% tariffs on all PRC imports if Xi actually orders an invasion of Taiwan, & that would deter Xi. Well, he has already played that card & more in his shambolic omnidirectional trade war, so that is gone as a deterring factor. Shambolic foreign policymaking on top of shambolic trade policymaking.
wjca
@YY_Sima Qian:
At the rate Trump is trashing the US, economically and otherwise, Xi might see it possible to absorb the extraordinary damage from invading Taiwan, but still hold on to a preeminent pisition vis-a-vis the US.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: Not vis-a-vis other powers such as India, the EU, Russia, Indonesia, etc. There is more to the world than the U.S. & the PRC. The very definition of multipolarity.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: 2049 is the centennial of the PRC’s founding, so 2049 is the checkpoint for (re-)achieving China’s “national greatness”, not 2045 as I wrote. Brain fart on my part.
NotoriousJRT
Respect to you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: The US bombing campaign against the Houthis was destined to fail. That fastest route to getting the Houthis to ramp down its attacks on civilian shipping in the Red Sea & Israel is to get a new ceasefire agreement in Gaza ASAP.
Gloria DryGarden
@YY_Sima Qian: where did you go , on vacation?
YY_Sima Qian
@Gloria DryGarden: Yes, I took my daughter on vacation for 10 days last week.