Well this is terrifying:
India said early Wednesday that it had conducted several airstrikes on Pakistan, hailing a victory in the name of vengeance for the terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians in Kashmir last month.
But evidence was also growing that the Indian forces may have taken heavy losses during the operation. At least two aircraft were said to have gone down in India and the Indian-controlled side of Kashmir, according to three officials, local news reports, and accounts of witnesses who had seen the debris of two.
Thank goodness we have a stable calm team at the WH.
And I love that article that Anne Laurie linked below about Hegseth. No one sees through bullshit like the e4 mafia, and I have to admit that Kegseth is an inspired nickname.
Suzanne
I’m so glad we have a team of the very best people in our leadership, known for their sound judgment and wisdom.
J. Arthur Crank
At this point, the only thing on my BINGO card that has not come to pass is “asteroid strike”. However, it is early in the day for me here in the West Coast.
Whiskey Leaks and DUI Hire are also good names for Hegseth.
J. Arthur Crank
@Suzanne:
Yes, this blog is in good hands. What worries me is the leadership in the federal government.
SiubhanDuinne
What is the e4 mafia?
schrodingers_cat
FWIW the opposition parties are fully on board with these attacks.
J. Arthur Crank
@SiubhanDuinne:
I assume E4 is some kind of job classification in the Department of Defense, perhaps applying to the rank and file in the military.
Trivia Man
@SiubhanDuinne: E4 is Enlisted – level 4. That’s a corporal, i think. But a low ranking member of the military. Not a newbie but not yet a Leader, im guessing that they are doing the bulk if the actual work and rightfully feel a sense of ownership of the whole operation.
CaseyL
@SiubhanDuinne:
NCOs – the people who really run things day to day.
I hope John’s right.
I have a friend who was in the Army, and claims to be in touch with some of these folks, and he’s made some confident pronouncements based on what they’ve told him – none of which has happened. But he’s not reliable, alas, and I suspect none of his sources are, either.
twbrandt
So two nuclear powers are at war, and the Leader of the Free World is babbling about dolls. Fabulous.
schrodingers_cat
@twbrandt: Orangina is not the leader of the so called free world. And these hostilities have little to do with who sits in Washington DC.
MattF
@Suzanne: And Linda McMahon putting those Haavaad snobs in their place! It’s about time!
BethanyAnne
Eh, this will be the, what, 4th war between them over Kashmir? I’m not going to panic over this. ETA: Any war belongs in The Horrors, but at the 4th war over a place you stop being surprised.
jonas
Right now, the US seems to be sort of lying low and urging calm or whatever, which is better than the reaction I might have expected which would be to tell Modi to “go all Netanyahu on those lousy Pakis”. Probably because a lot of Trump’s aides are still trying to locate the region on a map. At Mar-A-Lago, a globe in the lobby just labels all of Asia “Place That Steals Our Shirt Factories”, so it’s confusing.
For those interested, I found this BBC primer on the history of the crisis helpful.
The Audacity of Krope
@jonas: They could have checked Google maps, but Google has decided to mislabel things at Trump’s request. So the Trumpies know it can’t be trusted.
SiubhanDuinne
@J. Arthur Crank:
@Trivia Man:
@CaseyL:
Thanks to you all. Nice to begin the day being more informed than I was when I woke up.
chemiclord
If you told me that an international conflict HAD to emerge, yeah… India and Pakistan WOULD have been my likely choice. Those two countries have been simmering for decades.
Princess
I said in a dead early morning that this is the first crisis since WW2 that the world has had to handle without the input, influence, soft power, or even interest of the US. It will be interesting to see how we do, in the “living in interesting times” sense of interesting.
TB Hill
@SiubhanDuinne:
E4s are junior enlisted in the military – generally folks who have been in a few years but are not yet NCOs (noncommissioned officers, i.e., Sergeants in the Army or Marines and Petty Officers in the Navy).
Many E4s are reaching the end of their first or second enlistment and are not expecting to become career soldiers. Nothing wrong with that – they’ve served their country.
So the “E4 mafia” is sort of a term for these folks who are never going to be NCOs, not staying much longer in the service, but they’ve been around and know stuff. They sort of have a reputation both as truth-tellers and pains in the asses. They know how to do a lot of things, and have opinions, and they aren’t going to work real hard. A wise officer or NCO will use them to improve a unit.
Ken B
Does he even know? In his first term, when his ‘brain’ worked gooder, his intel briefings were 4 page PowerPoint decks, with lots of graphics and said his name on every page.
They may be afraid to tell him what’s going on there…
Trivia Man
@chemiclord: not centuries? Thats what orange head said
karen gail
Not totally unexpected,
1947
India and Pakistan have been fighting since 1947, when India gained independence from Britain. They have fought three full-scale wars and several cross-border incidents over the years123
The question last time they fought was if they would use nuclear weapons; a number of “experts” said the question wasn’t “if” but “when.”
One of André Leon Talley's Fifty Pieces of Monogrammed Louis Vuitton Luggage
Seems like there is simple, yet colorful, way to solve this disputed: https://youtu.be/pqt7Bt1y71g
The Audacity of Krope
If Trump were a stronger President, India and Pakistan wouldn’t even consider attacking each other. Peace by chest thumping. /TrumpLogic
The Audacity of Krope
South Asia has always been at war with itself…
schrodingers_cat
India’s DOD spokeswoman to debrief the press is a Muslim woman in uniform, it made many Sanghi brains melt. Now they are calling her India’s daughter and such.
Col. Sofiya Qureishi
John Cole
E4 mafia:
Link
Link
Princess
Evidently having done one day of work yesterday, Trump is heading out for a golf weekend so India and Pakistan will have to look out for themselves.
twbrandt
@schrodingers_cat: your sarcasm detector needs adjustment.
And while the hostilities between India and Pakistan have little do with who sits in Washington, having a clueless senile president is never a good thing, especially now.
schrodingers_cat
@Trivia Man: No the Hindu-Musllim discord to these proportions is a legacy of the Raj.
Omnes Omnibus
@SiubhanDuinne:
E-4 mafia. Soldiers too senior to be privates but not yet NCOs. Most of the E-4 mafia aren’t looking to be promoted, but rather looking to have their remaining year or so in uniform be as easy as possible.
Kirk
E4s are the highest rank of “do the job” vs “tell someone to do the job.” Due to time and experience they will have learned to some extent how to do the job most efficiently, get the job passed to someone else, and/or get what’s really needed to do the job. They’re also experienced enough to have something interesting to do when waiting (see “hurry up and wait”). They will have the broadest spread of peers for getting all this done. All this makes them simultaneously essential and a pain in the ass.
Skippy is the archetypal E4. If you don’t know skippy, I recommend seeing the link at TVTropes. I’d send you to the original site but that’s been down for a few years.
Omnes Omnibus
@TB Hill: This is a very good summation of it.
frosty
@SiubhanDuinne:
Google E4 Mafia. The description in Urban Dictionary was really good. TL;DR Radar O’Reilly was the perfect example of the guy who knows a guy who can get stuff done.
schrodingers_cat
@twbrandt: Americans making every conflict about themselves is not particularly funny . YMMV.
mappy!
@Princess: I’m expecting a WH announcement after the first nine that it’ll be over in 24 hours.
Trivia Man
@The Audacity of Krope: HE IS ALWAYS RIGHT!!
Boy is my face red for doubting his Excellency
Trivia Man
@schrodingers_cat: My point stands – India and Pakistan have not been warring for centuries. More like… checks notes… 1947?
Belafon
@schrodingers_cat: The issue is that is the current president capable of doing what previous ones have done and remind Pakistan and India that they don’t want to go “too far”?
schrodingers_cat
@Trivia Man: I answered your question without detecting thearcasm. My bad.
This stuff is not funny for me. I will excuse myself out.
schrodingers_cat
@Trivia Man: Yes. The first skirmish over Kashmir was 47-48.
BJP’s Kashmir policy has been a big failure.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Can you elaborate? What did they want to achieve and how did they fail at it?
chemiclord
@Baud: Yeah, “success” or “failure” really needs a definition.
For BJP, they’ve killed a bunch of Pakistanis and made sure the world knows they’re gonna keep doing it. For them, this has been a rousing success.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: I would generally say that, if your policy results in lobbing missiles back and forth, it was not a success.
karen gail
India versus Pakistan is one more thing we chalk up to the British Empire; colonization of another people never ends well.
I am old enough to remember reading stories about the death toll as the Muslins and Hindu people tried to move to the country of their choice. Which became required reading by a couple of my teachers when war broke out between the two countries in 1965. The thought that both of these countries have nuclear weapons should scare people; this time it started with water. Didn’t some fiction writer talk about how the world war 3 or 4 started with a battle over water?
YY_Sima Qian
The fog in this conflict is particularly dense (to those of us replying upon open source, anyway), given the insane level of rumor/conspiracy mongering & outright fabrications promulgated by Indian & Pakistani ultranationalists on international social media platforms.
Pakistan (specifically its Inter-Service Intelligence) has been supporting terrorists & militants operating in Indian Kashmir for decades, playing an obviously duplicitous game. In more recent years suggestions have circulated around think tank circles that Indian intelligence has started to return the favor by supporting Balochi militants/terrorists in Pakistan, including mounting deadly attacks against Chinese civilian personnel working on infrastructure projects there (as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor).
The PRC will be among those fervently hoping for deescalation in the current Indo-Pakistani flare up. On the one hand, the PRC & Pakistan have a longstanding alignment aimed at counterbalancing India, an “All Weather Friendship” to the Pakistanis & Pakistan is often called the “Iron Brother” in Chinese media & social media. OTOH, the PRC government has clearly hoped to advanced the recent rapprochement w/ India, after several years of relations being in deep freeze following the Galwan Valley border clash in 2020, so that the PRC can focus on its Great Power Competition w/ the US.
The PRC supported the initial calls out of New Delhi demanding that Pakistan investigates any connections between the terrorists that carried out the Pahalgam attack & elements w/in Pakistan. It has expressed “regret” (but not “condemnation”) at the Indian retaliation. These are rather more equivocal formulations than normal. OTOH, if the Pakistani military has in fact managed to down a number of Indian fighters & drones (rumored/reported numbers range from 3 – 6), it is probably doing so using PRC supplied fighters firing PRC supplied missiles, supported by PRC supplied AWACS, & bolstered by PRC supplied SAMs.
YY_Sima Qian
@karen gail: The Brits, as other departing colonial powers, planted the seeds to sow discord. However, the Indians & Pakistanis have had agency in their choices & conduct in the decades since.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
Maybe. I can see a Modi supporter saying the reason for the fighting is because Modi was succeeding in Kashmir and that’s what set off Pakistan.
That’s what a Trump supporter would say if Trump were involved in a similar situation.
So more precise information would be helpful in separating reality for spin.
Old Man Shadow
Anytime there is war, things can get out of hand, especially if there are religious and ethnic hatreds involved which are irrational by definition and historic grievances (European colonialism is the gift that keeps on giving).
But I’m hoping both sides’ governments recognize that everyone loses if things get out of hand. And China becomes involved if there is fallout that drifts over the border.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: BJP has long claimed that other parties have tried to appease Muslims and hence could not solve the Kashmir issue. And they had long posited that it was article 370 that was responsible for the unrest in Kashmir. So when they were reelected in 2019 they abrogated article 370 and took away Kashmir’s statehood. I even wrote about it at that time and it was frontpaged by AL IIRC.
schrodingers_cat
@karen gail: It started with a terrorist attack at Pehalgam. The water stuff was in response to that.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: You have your finger on the Sanghi pulse. Modi is never wrong he can only be wronged.
Doug
OT BFD: North Carolina finally closes out its election from November 2024.
https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-supreme-court-election-appeal-b227a456e5ca04bc42bf6075af46028c
montanareddog
@chemiclord:
Centuries, even, according to you know who this morning, bloviating about a conflict between 2 countries that are less than 80 years old as separate political entities.
Bupalos
I guess I did have increasing global military instability on the card, but this particular flareup in this particular conflict probably doesn’t flow from American pullback.
Broader nuclear proliferation in response to allowing Putin to benefit from nuclear blackmail is still my dark horse for “this is how the world ends, with a bang not a whimper.”
ExPatExDem
Yeah, this sounds like it could spiral out of control quickly.
Airstrikes by India, artillery strike by Pakistan in response, aircraft downed by air defenses, and double digit civilian casualties claimed by both sides.
Please keep the current U.S. administration as far from this as possible, and let any mediation efforts be led by competent adults.
Peale
I don’t think there is any role the US is going to play here, even as a mediator. So Trump in the Whitehouse isn’t going to make much difference. The worst thing that could happen is if he gets it in his head that he’ll get his Nobel Peach Prize that he wants so desperately by doing something. I could see US mediation being Pakistan offering to build him Trump Cashmere Casino if he lets them take Kashmir and promises any rare earths while India would offer Trump Ski Resort and all the minerals if he lets them ethnically cleanse the place.
schrodingers_cat
Completely OT: I restored my vintage Parker pen which was a gift from my dad when I did particularly well on some test/exam when I was in school. I think it was in the 9th grade. I has a proud
I also restored a Wilson pen which is an Indian Parker knockoff which was a pen that my father used himself in college. My father gave me all his fountain pen collection a while back.
ExPatExDem
@Peale: The current Pennsylvania Avenue resident has a bad case of what kids these days call “main character syndrome”. I think he fancies himself one of history’s great men and will try to insert himself somehow. Hope I’m wrong.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
I remember that. Was the BJP pitch that their actions would make everyone happy and end the conflict?
schrodingers_cat
@ExPatExDem: Modi has it too. I doubt that he will let Trump outstage him on his own turf.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: They said it woud “solve” the problem i.e. show the Muslims in the valley who was boss. And there would be peace in the valley. And Indians from other states could buy land in the Kashmir and be able to vacation there. Kashmiri pundits would return.
This would see a lot of investment in the valley and the Kashmiris would benefit economically.
montanareddog
@YY_Sima Qian:
Indeed. Plenty of former enemies have reached a modus vivendi in the 8 decades since 1945. India and Pakistan are still at daggers drawn because it suits their power elites. The Pakistani military is the worst culprit though, cynically stoking the flames as a means to maintain their sometimes overt, sometimes covert power in the country.
Betty Cracker
The U.S. as “leader of the free world” was always self-congratulatory bullshit. But it contained a kernel of truth to the extent that our dominance positioned us to secure favorable market terms, access credit relatively cheaply, enjoy reserve currency benefits, have the option to meddle in other country’s affairs for good or ill (often for ill), etc.
Then 49.81% of U.S. voters opted to piss that away by electing an unhinged, felonious carnival barker, though I don’t think the vast majority of them realize the implications yet. The downsides of that are pretty clear to me.
What I wonder is, are there are some benefits for Americans to the end of American hegemony? I mean, if we manage to hang onto our democracy?
YY_Sima Qian
@schrodingers_cat: Modi’s policies in Kashmir, at least as reported in Western MSMs, have been strongly reminiscent of the CPC regime’s brutal crackdowns against portions of Turkic populations in Xinjiang in the late ’10s (for supposed sympathies for Separatism, Islamic Fundamentalism & Terrorism): suppression of all non-conforming voices among the local population (even the relative moderates who disavow militancy & separatism & participate in the established political process & economic system), mass arrests, massive & intrusive surveillance (including of the overseas diaspora), harsh restrictions on freedom of movement for the targeted local population, massive & prolonged outage of internet & mobile services, close surveillance & intimidation of foreign & domestic media that seek to report from Kashmir, & expanding transnational repression. In fact, Modi has gone a step further in green lighting assassination of critics & opponents overseas.
Furthermore, my impression from Western MSM reporting (& thus could be wrong or incomplete) is that the Indian government (especially under the BJP) has failed to deliver the kind of improvement to material lives of the Kashmiris, that would make rule from New Delhi more palatable to the local population, while favoring carpetbagging new arrivals from rest of India. That is where Beijing has perhaps done better, even though Uyghurs & other Turkic peoples in Xinjiang also complain of arrivals from rest of the PRC reaping disproportionate rewards from the economic gains.
schrodingers_cat
@YY_Sima Qian: Your impressions are not far from the truth. The only thing I would add is Modi and BJP are not as powerful as they would like everyone to believe. Also they care far too much about how they are perceived in the US media.
YY_Sima Qian
@montanareddog:
Absolutely true, & not limited to Pakistan. The ISI has played the same duplicitous game w/ the Afghan Taliban during the US-led War in Afghanistan.
That is, until the BJP started to win elections in India.
Of course, even the BJP, despite its illiberal & authoritarian tendencies, has shown far greater governance capacity than the long standing absolute mess in Pakistan.
schrodingers_cat
OT: My vintage Parker fountain pen says made in england. I wonder how old it is.
bbleh
OT, but Josh Marshall reporting that Griffin conceded to Riggs in NC Supreme Court election. Happy to savor the victories when they come ..
As to India / Pak, two HEAVILY populated countries with a LONG history of mutual antagonism, including not only (relatively recent) national rivalry but also tribal AND religious (always a durable one) animosity, BOTH with nuclear weapons (!!!), AND — this one really thrills me — both extremely vulnerable to the effects of global warming, including salt-water infiltration of agricultural areas and/or outright inundation of coastal areas and cities where HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of people live or on which they depend either directly or indirectly … what could possibly go wrong?
oldgold
India and Pakistan must be unaware that Trump is the POTUS. For as we all know, no acts such as this, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or Hamas’ October attack, would ever occur if Trump was President.
YY_Sima Qian
@schrodingers_cat: Is it because US MSMs influence the opinions of Hindutva proponents among the Indian diaspora, from which the BJP draws some strength & legitimacy?
brendancalling
@MattF: I teach middle school. Our APs can write better than that. McMahon is more like one of my less intelligent 6th graders.
CaseyL
@Betty Cracker: I’d say it depends on how far down we slide: If enough to be completely irrelevant to the rest of the world, there might be less reflexive hostility to USians traveling abroad.
Normally, other benefits might include a smaller military – or at least a smaller military budget – but the DoD budget has been an All You Can Eat buffet of grift, boondoggle, and porkbarrel for so long I don’t see its budget ever being meaningfully reduced.
bbleh
@brendancalling: I still say that’s got the Orange Guy’s clumsy paw-prints all over it. Whoever wrote it, either he dictated it or edited it heavily, or somebody did who was trying to sound just like him.
schrodingers_cat
@YY_Sima Qian: The bigger factor is their delusions of grandeur. Mostly the MSM yawns at anything that happens in India. But accprding Modi bhakts that India has become the “Vishwaguru” under Modi.
Vishwa = Universe
Guru needs no translation.
Reality does not comport with their propaganda. But they do care a lot because they have fragile egos.
SiubhanDuinne
@TB Hill:
Thank you for that clear and comprehensive explanation! Much appreciated!
Wapiti
@Betty Cracker: What I wonder is, are there are some benefits for Americans to the end of American hegemony? I mean, if we manage to hang onto our democracy?
Maybe. A lot of the European countries seem to be doing ok, in that they weren’t violently squabbling with their neighbors. But how much of that was because the USA was in the wings?
I think a reduced USA might be able to work better with Canada and Mexico.
rikyrah
sigh..
did not have it on my Bingo card
there’s literally nobody of intelligence in our government to even begin to talk about this
YY_Sima Qian
@Betty Cracker: The end of the pursuit of Primacy & Hegemony is good for social democracy in America long term, as that pursuit invariably favors the interests of those w/ the most to gain from Primacy/Hegemony: the capital owners, the MIC (now including large parts of the Silicon Valley, returning to their roots), the vast professional elite whose purpose is to defend & sustain Primacy/Hegemony (internationally & domestically).
However, the transition can get ugly.
YY_Sima Qian
@schrodingers_cat: Thanks for the elaboration!
SiubhanDuinne
@John Cole:
Thanks, John. Excellent links.
SiubhanDuinne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thank you, OO.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Thanks.
catclub
wasn’t Alsace-Lorraine like that at one time.
Alsace is the German name and Lorraine is the French one.
Baud
@bbleh:
That is good news about NC. Thanks.
SiubhanDuinne
@Kirk:
Those are funny. Thanks!
Glidwrith
@J. Arthur Crank: I have alien visitation/invasion on my card.
catclub
@Princess:
This may be the best (presently) possible management of the conflict.
Steve LaBonne
@YY_Sima Qian: I would have an easier time believing that if massive longterm economic damage weren’t being done along the way (not just unstable ever-changing trade regimes but the destruction of scientific research- the latter will be a very long-term economic drag) and the continued assault on education which will make our population even dumber and less able to function in the 21st Century world.
SiubhanDuinne
@frosty:
I was thinking as I read the earlier explanations that Radar was the quintessential e4 mafioso.
catclub
@schrodingers_cat:
also any freedom of speech or access to the internet.
sounds like a police state of siege.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@schrodingers_cat: I gather it’s not so much about us Americans as both India and Pakistan expect the major powers to restrain them from all out war so they can save face with their own ultra-nationalists.
catclub
@bbleh:
 
Glaciers of the Himalayas melting away and therefore not feeding all the rivers?
schrodingers_cat
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: That did not succeed during the Bangladesh war nor the more recent one at Kargil
As Americans we tend to overestimate our influence in foreign affairs IMHO.
We all have a little bit of the main character syndrome
The US is strong and influential, but not that influential. The world truly does not revolve around us.
Dangerman
I/P regularly get it on.
i’m still pissed my Bingo Card has us getting it on with Denmark over Greenland.
Hold on.
twbrandt
@schrodingers_cat: my sincere apologies, SC. I know this is very frightening for you.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@schrodingers_cat: still, avoiding a nuclear war is worth a try.
schrodingers_cat
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I don’t think it will come to that. But yes US should use all the inflence it has to deescalate the situation.
schrodingers_cat
@twbrandt: No worries apology accepted. I am just a tad irritated. And uncertain how this will affect my trip to India later this summer.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Biggest benefit would be renormalization defense spending.
One is the slim possibilities with Trump was that he might look to defense spending to help pay for his tax cuts. But no, he proposed a trillion dollar defense budget.
Denali5
@schrodingers_cat:
Thank you for your insightful comments. I hope you will continue to keep us informed about this volatile situation.
Suzanne
Kinda feel like we need a conclave thread.
Matt McIrvin
@Doug: Wow, I did not expect that! Fully expected SCOTUS to invoke the Heads I Win Tails You Lose Rule.
Baud
@Suzanne:
Did they start? What is there to discuss? Everything is secret, right?
YY_Sima Qian
@Steve LaBonne: As I said, the transition can get & is getting ugly. However, the US will retain enormous fundamental strengths & reservoirs of capital, from which to rebuild a prosperous polity, just not as a global hegemony. As long as it stays in one piece, anyway.
Doc Sardonic
@SiubhanDuinne: Radar was the capo de tutti capi
Baud
SiubhanDuinne
@Suzanne:
Have had the proceedings/ceremonies on in the background. I’m not Catholic — I’m not particularly religious, if it comes to that — but I have a great affinity for certain kinds of rituals and ceremonials, exquisitely choreographed and near-flawlessly executed. A dedicated conclave thread could be interesting, but it could just as easily turn into a nasty food fight. FPs’ call.
SiubhanDuinne
@Doc Sardonic:
😁
Professor Bigfoot
@YY_Sima Qian:
Exactly how I see it— the US is still a *continental power,* and everything its economy needs is available somewhere in its territory… as long as it stays in one piece.
A breakup will be prelude to generations of violence.
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud: They are voting the first round ballot now. There will be smoke (presumably black this time) and the adjournment for the night. Two rounds each tomorrow morning and two rounds tomorrow afternoon (all with the *if needed proviso), and so on every day until there’s consensus. Or so the folks on MSNBC tell me.
ETA: Yes, the proceedings are secret, and yes, the TV Vatipundits are totally speculating about any possible outcomes.
ETA2: I don’t think the secrecy is necessarily nefarious, though it probably was in the times of the Medici and Borgia papacies. It’s more of the sacred nature of the undertakings.
Melancholy Jaques
@schrodingers_cat:
What’s a good source for a beginner to learn about India, Pakistan, & Kashmir? Asking for a friend.
Baud
@SiubhanDuinne:
I hope they make a better choice than the US did.
Suzanne
@Baud: In addition to what SubaruDiane said so perfectly….. there¡s usually gossip/inside baseball that gets to the pundits about which way the smoke may blow, important points of agreement or disagreement, etc.
schrodingers_cat
@Melancholy Jaques: How far back do you want to go
BBC’s India desk and Scroll are good resources for the latest breaking news in English.
Baud
Have a Coke and a smile.
Baud
@Suzanne:
If it’s cable news pundits, then the smoke is blowing up our asses.
Suzanne
@Baud: Well, of course. That’s the nature of all bullshit.
Baud
Conclave comment on Reddit
Now I’m scared.
Fair Economist
@bbleh: India and Pakistan are also on the frontlines of global heatwaves AND monsoon changes.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
she is not playing with anybody. You can see it on her face.
Omnes Omnibus
@catclub: Alsace and Lorraine are two distinct areas. They they are lumped together because they were passed back and forth between France and Germany.
Trollhattan
Moti is a better-dressed Trump and the Pakistan dude is somebody I can’t say I ever heard of. Mostly remember Musharraff.
My presumption is their egos are of like size and so, here we go.
schrodingers_cat
@rikyrah: I noticed that too!
schrodingers_cat
FWIW any Pakistani I have ever met in the US has always been unfailingly courteous and friendly. And I can’t say the same about all the Indians I have met here.
There is a lot of love people-to-people. What I am mostly worried about is that the BJP will use this war as a pretext to further marginalize Indian Muslims.
The main problem with Pakistan is their politicized military. India’s democratic foundation was strong because of the Nehru led Congress.
cain
@schrodingers_cat:
U.S. no longer matters in geo-political events. Thanks to the voting American public.
Checked in on /r/India, on reddit. (mostly liberal minded, younger generation Indians) There was a post about Israel siding with India and saying they have a right to defend itself.
Let’s just say the responses made me proud to be an Indian (not proud to be an American at the moment, gotta take my pride where I can get it) – Gaza is not Pakistan and India is not Israel.
Kirk
@Baud: Well of course they rejected it. You can’t sing in perfect harmony with only a single voice.
cain
@jonas:
That’s because Trump has not yet focused on it. American media is not covering India/Pakistan. Too busy focusing on Trump. The rest of the world are alarmed. But once he does, he’ll be shoving himself in the middle saying he’s the bestest negotiator and only he can resolve this crisis. Motherfucker hasn’t done shit with Ukraine but still think he can pull a deal out.
Matt McIrvin
@cain: As an American who lived through the post-9/11 era and learned some stuff the hard way, I think I can say unequivocally: countries have the right to defend themselves, but that right is NOT a blank check. Nor is it practically wise to treat it as such.
cain
@Baud:
During the terrorist attack in Kashmir, there was no police presence or any kind of presence. Many tourists claim to see this particular sketchy group. This is directly the fault of Modi’s government. Based on the general stuff I’ve read in /r/India and other indian subreddits. Those subreddits aren’t representative of Indian mentality. I’ll need to check in with my family.
cain
@karen gail: There are some intense scenes from the 1980s era Gandhi movie. Crazy stuff. I used to have Pakistani friends whose family came from south India.
schrodingers_cat
@Denali5: You are welcome.
schrodingers_cat
@cain: Govind Nihalani 5 part TV series Tamas (Darkness) is one of the best and realistic depictions of the Partition from the POV of regular people.
TB Hill
@catclub:”Alsace is the German name and Lorraine is the French one.”
Alsace is used in French as well. Alsace is not synonymous with Lorriane; Lorraine is a bit west of Alsace. The two regions were linked by the contested nature of the area between 1871 and 1918.
cain
@YY_Sima Qian:
I think PRC is going to be more muted. As you say, PRC and Pakistan have a fair weather friend kind of deal going since PRC and India have border conflicts. But it’s going to be more muted as PRC is not going to want to look like it’s supporting something the west are going to frown on.
artem1s
@karen gail:
The other if but when question is when does China decide they don’t want to be downwind of a full blown nuclear holocaust? They have threatened to intervene in this squabble before. Orange Dumbass Hitler may think that would be a good thing but I hardly think it’s going to work out well if China decides to retaliate by preemptively firebombing one of India’s allies, say London.
cain
@Peale:
Most likely he’ll go after any natural resources. He’ll come to fuck both countries over with his deal making.
Melancholy Jaques
@schrodingers_cat:
I would like to know the story from the beginning. I am a blank slate. The only thing I know about Kashmir is that it is a Led Zeppelin song.
cain
@YY_Sima Qian:
The issues with Kashmir and their competition with India has stunted Pakistan’s growth as a country. Their economy is in the tank, and their corruption is worse than India’s.
At least they’ve had the longest stretch of civilian rule I’ve seen in my life time. Otherwise, they’d cycle in and out of military rule back in the 70s and 80s.
Pakistanis inherently trust the military more than their civilian govt. I don’t know if that is still true since it’s been awhile since the military dissolved the government.
cain
@Trollhattan:
I wouldn’t say that. I mean only one politician here is doing economic suicide. Modi has main character syndrome but he’s no where near as bad as Trump and his crowd of reverse intellectualism pick. I mean our goddam HHS secretary is an anti-vaxxer and doesn’t believe in germ theory. We have a secretary of defense who is a walking national security disaster.
Geminid
@cain: Followers of Imran Khan maintain this civilian government is just a figurehead for military rule. They could be right.
ExPatExDem
@catclub: Yeah, Alsace-Lorraine was a point of conflict between France and Germany (and its predecessor kingdoms) from the 16th century through the end of WW2. It predated Republics and outlasted monarchies and empires in both countries.
cain
@Melancholy Jaques:
The history is dependent on which history books you are reading. :-) If you read Pakistan’s history on Kashmir, I suspect it will be different than the Indian ones.
The tl;dr is that during partition, the king of Jammu/Kashmir decided to join with the India side rather than Pakistan side even though kashmir was majority muslim.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jammu_and_Kashmir_(princely_state)
Should give you enough background on what happened.
Suzanne
@Melancholy Jaques: I have been thinking back to a class I took as an undergrad, so like 850 years ago. Professor (white American guy) said that, without question, the most dangerous place in the world is Kashmir. 18-year-old Suzanne had never thought of that.
bluefoot
@schrodingers_cat: that’s awesome. I have an old Parker that I have used since my dad gave it to me for my 11th birthday. That’s….several decades. Until he died he used a pen that I had bought for him when I was in my early 20s.
cain
@Geminid: Would not surprise me. Pakistan’s greatest adversary is itself. If they stopped obsessing over whatever is happening over the border and focused on economic prosperity they could go far.
The ISI is everyone’s enemy.
Steve Finlay
@schrodingers_cat: “Darkness” is a correct translation of Tamas, but doesn’t express the full impact of the word. From chapter 14 of the Bhagavad Gita (Juan Mascaro’s translation): “Sattva, Rajas, Tamas – light, fire and darkness – are the three constituents of nature … Tamas, which is born of ignorance, darkens the soul of all men. It binds them to sleepy dullness, and then they do not watch and then they do not work … Darkness, inertia, negligence, delusion – these appear when Tamas prevails.”
Baud
@Steve Finlay:
Ah, so Tamas translates to Trump.
schrodingers_cat
@Melancholy Jaques: Ashok Kumar Pandey who writes in Hindi has 2 books
Kashmirnama (The Story of Kashmir, Past and Present)
Kashmir and Kashmiri PunditsEnglish translations are available but I don’t know whether they are available in the US.
I don’t agree with all his geopolitical takes but he is solid on Kashmir.
Melancholy Jaques
@cain:
Thank you.
Geminid
@cain: The situation in Pakistan might be like Turkiye’s in the latter 20th century. The civilan governments operated within the parameters allowed by the military. But I did not pay much attention when Pakistan’s parliament removed Imran Khan from the pprime minister position, so I don’t know if the military chiefs instigated the move or played a more passive role.
montanareddog
@TB Hill: Elsaβ and Lothringen are the respective German names for those two regions.
They were only German for the period between the French defeat in the Franco-Prussian war and the German defeat in WW1 – just over 40 years.
schrodingers_cat
@Steve Finlay: Darkness of the soul captures what happened during the partition. And that’s the name of the novel on which the series is based. It was written by Bhisham Sahani, who was a refugee from what became Pakistan as was Govind Nihalani the director of the miniseries.
schrodingers_cat
@Geminid: Imran Khan the politician was pretty problematic too. I was a fan of Imran Khan the cricketer back in the day.
ExPatExDem
@montanareddog: Only true in the sense that the modern German nation-state has only existed since 1871. It was taken by France in 1766, having previously belonged to the Holy Roman Empire for 800 years.
montanareddog
@cain:
The educated Pakistanis I know (and I know quite a few) are equally contemptuous of the politicians, the generals and the mullahs which are essentially the 3 power bases. All either corrupt, or goons, or corrupt goons.
montanareddog
@cain:
I agree with both statements
Geminid
@schrodingers_cat: I don’t know that much about Imran Khan except I see a lot of his loyal followers on social media. And I read that the military put down a demonstration for him in Rawalpindi with live fire a few months ago.
Melancholy Jaques
@schrodingers_cat:
Thank you
schrodingers_cat
@Geminid: He had a successful cricketing career and was at its pinnacle. He was Pakistan’s captain. Pakistan won the World Cup under his captaincy.
karen gail
@schrodingers_cat:
I still use fountain pens for writing in journal; I am so old that I remember classes in high school that required our essays be written with fountain pens rather than the “new fangled” ball point pens that left streaks and messes behind.
Manyakitty
@schrodingers_cat: what a treasure! Enjoy!
Bill Arnold
@artem1s:
A regional nuclear war could kill 1-2 billion humans, mostly through starvation.
Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection (PDF, 2022/08, Lilia Xia, Alan Robock, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Cheryl S. Harrison, Jonas Jaegermeyr)
schrodingers_cat
This YT lecture by Sarah Paine of the US Naval War College on India explains the major players and India-Pakistan conflict.
cain
@montanareddog:
Yep. Honestly, they use Kashmir to distract everyone but I think the Pakistanis are getting sick of the whole thing especially when seeing India relatively advance ahead of them while Pakistan continues to just exist without moving the needle forward. There is no reason they can’t thrive – after all we’re all the same people with an artificial divide.
Sherparick
@J. Arthur Crank: The pay ranks for enlisted ranks starts at E-1 & rise to E-9. In the Army, most E-4s are “Specialists.” These as are the men & women doing the most of the day work that makes the Army. Same with the Navy, Air Force, & Marine Corps.