(Image by NEIVANMADE)
As I indicated last night, today was a very long day, so I’m just going to do a very brief update.
Fascist Russia planning to end its sham ceasefire with a bang tonight, Ukrainian intelligence sources warn.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 9:49 AM
As of 10:20 PM EDT/5:20 AM local time in Ukraine, Russian drone swarms are moving east to west across Ukraine. Air raid alerts are up over all of eastern, south central, north central, and most of central Ukraine.
In a coordinated move today, U.S., Ukrainian, and European leaders jointly demanded a 30-day ceasefire, effective May 12th. This represents their first concerted attempt to exert pressure on Russia, characterized by a specific timeframe and a demonstration of solidarity.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 9:27 AM
The international community will be watching closely to see how Russia reacts and, more importantly, what measures the allies will take if(when) Russia disregards this demand.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Didn’t take long to get a response from Putin:
The only noteworthy thing Putin said is his suggestion to renew direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul on May 15❗️
Blaming Ukraine for halting those talks in 2022 has been a long-standing Russian talking point. However, it’s crucial to remember that in those negotiations,
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Russia consistently demanded nothing short of Ukraine’s surrender and the dismantling of its military—essentially positioning itself to unironically seize our country within three days.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Putin: “We are committed to serious negotiations. It’s not ruled out that we could agree on new ceasefires.”
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Putin: “There’s a war going on now, and we’re proposing negotiations—what’s wrong with that?” No longer calling it an “SVO”?
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Peskov said Russia will review Ukraine’s 30-day ceasefire proposal but hasn’t heard Kyiv’s response to a 3-day offer: “Why not agree to three days?” Russia “must think” about the 30-day plan, holding its own stance, and sees Europe as “openly” against it, he told CNN.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 1:18 PM
President Zelenskyy held a joint press conference with new German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk:
Name a cuter bromance?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Prior to the joint presser, President Zelenskyy and the other leaders held a meeting of the coalition of the willing:
“A ceasefire is to begin on May 12, 2025, for at least 30 days. We demand this from Russia” – Zelenskyy on the press conference of the coalition of the willing in Kyiv today
Let’s see what happens.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Georgia:
Rustaveli avenue is blocked for the 164th consecutive night. ✅🇬🇪🇪🇺
#GeorgiaProtests— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Germany:
Germany will transfer 125 HIMARS/MARS missiles and 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, Germany has received US approval for this.
P.S: The weapons were manufactured in the US and cannot be exported — even if owned by another country — without US government permission. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/w…— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Hungary:
🇺🇦🇭🇺 Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry responded to Hungary’s harsh detention and deportation of a Ukrainian man:
“When there’s no evidence, the witch hunt begins. It’s long past time for Hungarian authorities to end their senseless anti-Ukrainian hysteria,” said MFA spokesperson Georgii Tykhyi.— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Back to Ukraine:
As our team and I anticipated last year, the momentum of this war is gradually fading. Neither side has enough resources at disposal to achieve a decisive strategic breakthrough. As a result, with or without a formal truce, the intensity of the war is likely to decline
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
The cost-benefit for Russia at this stage is unfavorable. There is, of course, a theoretical assumption among some Russians that if they push a little harder for a little longer, the front line will collapse and Ukraine will give up. But very little points to that outcome
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
At the same time, very few people in Ukraine still believe that if Russia loses another regiment- or brigade-sized force to capture yet another settlement in Donetsk Oblast, it will lead to mass desertions or a collapse of Russian forces.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Whether we’re referring to Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians, or Ukrainian attacks on depots, industries, and refineries, the results are largely at the tactical level: with only a few cases potentially reaching the operational level
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
The situation on the front lines remains more unfavorable for Ukraine. However, the discussion isn’t about who is winning, but rather about who is losing more. Put simply, both sides are expending human and material resources with little prospect of achieving its strategic goals
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
The potential lifting of sanctions, US aid and intelligence cutoff, the rise of more populist and pro-Russian politicians in parts of Europe, and open support from North Korea have given Russia renewed confidence that it may still achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
At the same time, there has been a recent and noticeable shift in Washington’s rhetoric toward Russia, likely driven by frustration with its negotiating stance and refusal to accept ceasefires by attaching non-starter preconditions that render meaningful dialogue impossible
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
At the current pace, Russia would need several more years to, maybe, take control of the Donbas – a goal that seems increasingly difficult given the strain on its economy, rising recruitment payments, and other military expenditures that give only limited battlefield gains
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Given the growing fatigue on both sides, and barring a major power shift, the war is likely to move toward either a truce or a slow-burning phase – where intensity declines until one side builds enough resources or capitalizes on geopolitical events to change the situation
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Kyiv:
Zelenskyy, Macron, Starmer, Merz, and Tusk were spotted walking through central Kyiv, engaging with locals and connecting with the community.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Vovchansk:
Ruins of Vovchansk—a deep, unhealed wound. A town that once glimpsed survival after deoccupation, only to be shattered by Russia’s idiotic attempt to reclaim Kharkiv region.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 6:14 AM
The Svatove direction:
🕊🇺🇦 In the Svatove direction, drones are fighting drones.
The pilots of the 4th mech battalion of the OPBr have mastered the tactics of destroying enemy mavic with the help of fpv 🔥
👀 They blind the enemy and deprive their assault units of controllability.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 1:33 PM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
AASM Hammer strike by MiG-29 on the Russian drone operators in Kursk region t.me/soniah_hub/1…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Russian 2S43 “Malva” 152 mm SPH destroyed in Kursk/Belgorod region. t.me/karas_evgen/…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 4:27 AM
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian equipment parking site, likely in the Kursk direction. Units of the 225th Assault Brigade spotted a T-72 tank via aerial recon, tracked it to the site, and demilitarized it. The lot included a T-72, BMD-2, and logistics vehicles.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Belgorod Oblast:
The “Vincere Malum” special forces group of Ukraine’s GUR is navigating a swamp during a raid on enemy territory, likely in Russia’s Belgorod region.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 4:59 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
Forget where I saw it, but Russian Anti-SMO activists have noted that ruZZian Military police are sweeping intersections all over ruZZia over the past two days, looking for deserters.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
HopefullyNotcassandra
When you have the opportunity, please correct me if I am mistaken. There is not a single gop senator or congressional representative fighting to budget for substantially more Patriot missiles, right?
Is there a single gop elected negotiating to help Ukraine in any way in the reconciliation budget?
Jay
@HopefullyNotcassandra:
There are about 100 more Patriot missiles headed to Ukraine and 2 new batteries.
The main issue, is that the US has still not gone to a war footing, so Ukraine is firing them faster than the US can make them. As a result, people are having to balance stripping out their inventories vs. supplying Ukraine.
And of course Kegstand cut all US supplies to Ukraine for a month, not on policy, but on his own whim.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Unpopular opinion. No ceasefire. Between economic sanctions and the falling price of oil, Russia is teetering on the brink of economic collapse. I, along with others, believe that has to happen or Russia will just keep going. Its fall might also give China pause, albeit that’s probably just wishful thinking on my part.
Thank you Adam. Hope you get some rest this weekend.
just another boomer
Thank you, Adam.
Good to see Merz acting on weapons so quickly.
Sally
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: I (am nobody) agree with you. I heard someone with far more import than I say that Europe had ru on the skids after the initial invasion of Georgia (sorry – edited for correctness!) (2008), and then rescued their economy with the Nordstream pipelines (lifelines) (2011, 2012). Ru was much weaker then, and he said (sorry can’t remember who) if the Europeans had just held firm, ru would have capitulated. European politics – cheap gas – overrode geopolitics. Sadly. I wonder what Dr Silverman thinks.
Sally
@Sally: Rereading, this fellow said ru was in trouble after sanctions were imposed after the initial invasion of UA (2014), and annexation of Crimea. So much turmoil in ru 2010 – 2013. Protests, financial crises, devastating fires, etc. I wondered at the time if the Crimea action was to quell internal unrest. As well as Putin’s delusions of grandeur.
Anyway, the point he was making is that if the EU countries had cut off the Nordstream lifelines then, ru would have been crippled. That cheap gas has turned out to be very, very expensive. It’s often the way, isn’t it?
Sorry that I have muffed this comment entirely.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
The Unmitigated Gaul
I follow this thread every day – and have never said thanks. So, thanks, Adam – it’s mandatory viewing.