Another long day here, so going to keep tonight to just the basics. Things should begin to ease up tomorrow through WED and then get a bit busy again on THURS and FRI. By the weekend things should be back to something approaching normal.
Oy vey:
What is so “potentially great” about today? Putin was given an ultimatum and refused. Either apply real pressure now or look weak.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 4:13 AM
What happened to the ceasefire? So, it’s okay now to keep killing Ukrainians and while talking about peace? Seriously, what’s next, drinks for sobriety?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Obligatory:
Zelensky’s office confirms to me that he will travel to Istanbul on Thursday. Here is his response to Trump’s post on Truth Social:
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 11, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Here in Ukraine, We Have Absolutely No Problem Engaging in Negotiations – We Are Ready for Any Format – Address by the President
11 May 2025 – 21:27
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
There was a lot of diplomatic work today – both our own with partners, and communication between partners in support of us. Starting tomorrow, we await a ceasefire – this proposal is on the table. A full and unconditional ceasefire, one that lasts long enough to provide a necessary foundation for diplomacy, could significantly bring peace closer. Ukraine has long proposed this, our partners are proposing it, and the whole world is calling for it. We await a clear response from Russia. Russia will have to end this war anyway. The killings must stop. Ukrainian forces will be ready to respond symmetrically – to ensure fairness. We have repeatedly heard from our partners that they are prepared to strengthen sanctions against Russia if Putin rejects a ceasefire. Time will tell. Here in Ukraine, we have absolutely no problem engaging in negotiations – we are ready for any format. I will be in Türkiye this Thursday, May 15, and I expect Putin to come to Türkiye as well. Personally. And I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he “can’t” make it. We are ready to talk, to end this war. Thursday. Türkiye. President Trump has expressed support. All the leaders support this. Today, I spoke with President of France Emmanuel Macron – Emmanuel, thank you for your support. I also spoke with President of Finland Stubb – Alexander, thank you! I also want to thank all the leaders – UK Prime Minister Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk – who were in Kyiv yesterday together with Emmanuel, as well as everyone who joined us online. We had a very productive meeting. I am also grateful to all the leaders and countries we’ve spoken with regarding security, diplomacy, and the ceasefire – 30 countries, the European Union, and NATO. We are preparing good decisions in support of Ukraine, in support of our people.
And one more thing – something very important. Today, we all say thank you to our mothers – for their absolute love that truly knows no bounds, for everything a mother does for her child, and for the fact that each of us always, under any circumstances, remains a child as long as our mom is alive. Mom, thank you! Mom, don’t worry – I’ve eaten, everything’s fine. I’m proud of our people.
Glory to Ukraine!
First Lady Zelenska addressed the Venice Biennale today.
Georgia:
‘Thank You, Friend’: Georgian citizens march to the US Embassy to express gratitude for American support and the passage of the Megobari Act.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 165— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 9:16 AM
For Georgians, 🇺🇸 has always been a land and source of hope and inspiration. Georgians believe deeply in American idealism for freedom.
These aren’t just words. In fact, Georgians usually get criticisms for it from various groups.
MEGOBARI Act gratitude march.
📷 MOSE
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Citizens gathered at several metro stations in Tbilisi, then assembled at one of them and marched to the US Embassy to thank the US Congress for passing the Megobari Act and supporting Georgia.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 165📷 Mariam Qavshbaia/Publika
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Taia Tsekvava was sprayed with a pepper spray and thrown down by two men. They told her: “Be ready for worse if you show up at a protest again!”
#terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Back to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy essentially tells Putin to put up or shut up.
www.ft.com/content/c995…— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 11, 2025 at 2:08 PM
From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he is ready to start peace talks with Vladimir Putin in Istanbul on Thursday, after Donald Trump told him to meet the Russian president there “immediately”.
“I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally,” Zelenskyy said in a statement late on Sunday. The president’s office confirmed to the Financial Times that travel plans were in the works.
Framing the offer as a test of the Russian leader’s willingness to negotiate in good faith, Zelenskyy added: “I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses.”
His comments came after a back-and-forth in which Ukraine called for Moscow to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting Monday, to which Putin said the two sides should instead hold talks this week in Turkey.
Zelenskyy insisted the month-long armistice should take effect as proposed, saying Ukraine awaits “a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy”.
But he said he would heed US President Trump’s advice that “Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY”, referring to Putin’s offer.
The Kremlin earlier on Sunday said it would not halt the Russian president’s three-year invasion of Ukraine without first holding talks on the “initial reasons” for the conflict.
Putin resumed combat operations in Ukraine immediately after his comments.
Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, told state TV that Moscow wanted to hold talks in Istanbul based on the failed peace process held there in the war’s early months in 2022, as well as the “real situation [ . . .] on the ground”, where Russia holds the upper hand on the battlefield.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told Putin that Turkey was ready to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Erdoğan’s office said.
Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, said Ukraine had “misread” Putin’s statement. “Putin said it very clearly: negotiations about the initial reasons [for the war] first, then a conversation about a ceasefire,” she told state newswire Tass.
Russia’s demands include a bar on Nato membership for Ukraine and recognition of Putin’s annexation of four south-eastern regions, as well as an end to western military support for Kyiv.
A return to the Istanbul talks would also involve Ukraine to pledge neutrality, accept caps on its military and accept Moscow’s demands to protect the Russian language in the country.
Ukraine has said those terms would all but end its existence as a modern state.
The Russian counter-offer is a rejection of the 30-day ceasefire proposal made earlier on Saturday after the leaders of France, Germany, Poland and the UK visited Kyiv to meet Zelenskyy.
Air defences punctuated the early morning silence in Kyiv just hours after the leaders of France, Germany, Poland and the UK departed by train from the Ukrainian capital.
The European partners agreed that if Russia were to refuse a total and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, stricter sanctions would be adopted against the banking and energy sectors, the Elysée said late on Saturday evening.
French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters on Sunday that Putin’s response was “a first move, but it is not enough”, adding it was a means of “not responding” to the ceasefire proposals.
“We have to hold firm with the Americans to say that the ceasefire is unconditional and afterwards we can discuss the rest,” he said from an overnight train in Przemyśl, Poland, after departing Kyiv.
“It’s unacceptable for the Ukrainians because they can’t accept parallel discussions while they continue to be bombarded.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also urged Russia to agree to an immediate ceasefire.
In a post on social media platform X on Sunday he wrote: “In response to our appeal, the Russians have proposed peace talks starting May 15. The world, however, is waiting for univocal decision on an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. Ukraine is ready. No more victims!”
More at the link.
I’d also like to point out that Russia does not necessarily hold the upper hand.
Trump played like a violin as usual. Drops ceasefire demand painstakingly agreed with allies. Puts pressure back onto Ukraine. Woeful. “Donald Trump has demanded that Ukraine should “immediately” agree to direct talks with Russia in a bid to end the war.” news.sky.com/story/have-t…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 12:58 PM
From Sky News:
But security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Matt Barbet there is a “long way between now and Thursday” and a “fair bit of brinkmanship” going on.
He said even if the talks do go ahead, “the chances are they’ll extend over a long period and there won’t be a ceasefire as a result of them, and the Russians will keep playing this out”.
Now we wait.
Early thoughts on the potential upcoming “peace negotiations” in Istanbul — still very early and highly speculative, as they are based solely on Putin’s proposal to hold talks and Zelensky’s verbal agreement to attend:
🧵Thread:
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
2/ When it comes to conflict resolutions, cease-fires are typically the first step toward meaningful negotiations. Russia’s refusal to agree to even a temporary cease-fire – despite calls from both Kyiv and Washington makes me doubt that there is a genuine interest in reaching a settlement by Russia
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
3/ During World War I, for example, combat operations ceased with the armistice in November 1918, months before the Treaty of Versailles, signed in 1919. More recently, the Minsk agreements were structured around the idea of cease-fires as a precursor to broader political roadmap agreements.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
4/ The Kremlin has shown little interest in that. Cease-fires proposed by Kyiv and Washington have been rejected, and the few temporary pauses offered by Russia have been poorly enforced. At the same time, it allowed Moscow to claim it is open to dialogue, while continuing its military campaign
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
5/ So what should we expect from another “Istanbul”, if it will ever happen? It is likely that Russia will repeat the same non-starter demands, without offering substantive concessions of its own.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
6/ Ukraine, predictably, would reject such terms, and Moscow could then frame Zelensky as the one standing in the way of peace, regardless of the legitimacy of Kyiv’s objections.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
7/ The timing of Putin’s announcement is also telling. His speech was broadcasted late at night in Moscow, around the time of morning news cycles in the United States, which makes me think that the intended audience may not have been Kyiv, but Washington.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
8/ In short, this looks like diplomatic maneuvering by Putin, political theater meant to convince Washington that Russia supports Trump’s peace agenda, and that it’s Zelensky who’s standing in the way. As long as this narrative holds, the US will hesitate to provide more aid to Ukraine…
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
9/ … especially since the Kremlin keeps insisting that any support to Kyiv is an obstacle to peace. With this approach, Putin can stall further U.S. support while presenting himself as the reasonable party: a peace-seeker up against a supposedly warmongering Zelensky.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Launches of FPV and winged kamikaze drones from modernized Ukrainian Magura-type naval drones
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Ukraine tested the B1 repeater for Himera radios on an Aerobavovna aerostat, extending range to 32 km. It deploys in 10 mins, offers encrypted comms for 14 days without recharge, doubles coverage, boosts command, coordination, saves lives, and supports FPV drones and recon, per DroneBomber.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Today, Russia attacked a village in the Kupiansk district of the Kharkiv region with a glide bomb, damaging two apartment buildings and injuring two women.
And, as always, accomplishing absolutely nothing of military value.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Kyiv:
Russian/Iranian Shahed flying bomb drones launched from Chauda in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea. Fascist Russia’s Tu-95 bomber fleet mustering at Engels-2 airbase. It looks like no ceasefire tonight, and instead there might be a big Russian air attack on Ukraine.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Air alert in Kyiv – threat of ballistic missile launches from Russia’s Voronezh Oblast.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Loitering munition strike on the Russian BUK-M1 air defense system t.me/SJTF_Odes/12…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 1:14 PM
The southern area of operations:
Ukrainian aviation continues strikes across all fronts. Southern Command footage shows Su-27 pilots targeting enemy assault groups near the mines, using precision-guided munitions like GBU-39 and GBU-62.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Russian occupied Mariupol:
In Russia-occupied Mariupol, locals are begging Putin to stop the so-called “DNR” authorities from seizing their property, claiming they’re being stripped of everything. They say the leadership is lying to Putin in reports. Surprising? Hardly.
Full: t.me/wartranslate…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 9:05 AM
West Siberia, Russia:
Fire at an oil and gas field in Russia.
“Kharampurneftegaz” fields, where the company “Belorusneft-Sibir” is operating, the fire began on the evening of May 10.
Two oil and gas wells caught fire – the fire burned all night, and eventually one of the rigs collapsed.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Kharapurneftegaz in YNAO, operated by Belorusneft-Sibir, contributes to 2.3 mmboe yearly output. Per Novatek (2019), YNAO holds 80% of Russia’s and 15% of global gas reserves. In 2020, Yamal extracted over 20% of Russia’s gas, expected to hit 40% by 2030.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Suzemka, Bryansk Oblast, Russia:
CyberBoroshno shared images of the aftermath of the strike on the Strela plant in Suzemka, Bryansk region. The facility is completely disabled, with its main production buildings and warehouses destroyed.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 7:13 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight.
Here is some adjacent material:
🐿🇺🇦 Eat my good ones, bon appetit!
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 10, 2025 at 8:27 AM
I’m guessing that’s Tippy Toe and Monkey Joe with that Ukrainian Soldier.
Open thread!
JCJ
I apologize, but I have to leave a link to the Robot Chicken version of Lando and Darth Vader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpE_xMRiCLE
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
dimmsdale
Thank you, Adam. Your steadfastness in reporting the truth is positively an inspiration.
YY_Sima Qian
Warring parties can talk while fighting, see Korea, Vietnam, & Afghanistan. I would even say that is the norm.
However, Putin won’t feel any pressure to agree to ceasefires &/or negotiations until he starts to suffer battlefield reversals & risk of losing a substantial part of his current gains. & I don’t mean losing lots of men & equipment for meager gains, but actually ceding ground. Otherwise, he will interpret all of these talks of ceasefires & negotiations as signs of weakness & exhaustion, & that his strategy of war of attrition is working.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: @dimmsdale: @Westyny: You are all most welcome.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam