In case the title didn’t give away the subject of this post, I’m sure this image (which makes me so very happy) did!
Australia Election Follow-up
by Viva BrisVegas and Pete Downunder
It’s not over until the plus-size lady sings, but the 2025 Australian Federal Election is as settled as a fat wombat in its burrow. As of writing, Labor has of a certainty 92 seats (electorates) in the House, the Liberal Party 40, Independents 10, and the Greens 0. This leaves 8 seats as yet undecided. In those undecided seats, Labor is ahead in 2, the Liberals in 4, Independents in 1 and Greens in 1. Counting in the undecided seats is complicated by our preferential voting system, but should be completed in most of the undecided seats this week.
The term “Liberals” used here is a catch all to include all the conservative parties acting in coalition, such as The Liberal Party, The National Party, The Liberal National Party, and The Country Liberal Party. All these parties have essentially the same policies and are only differentiated in marketing terms. They are all right wing bastards, whose only purpose when in power is to funnel cash into the pockets of the richest people in the country and to punch down as hard as possible at refugees, the unemployed, LGBTQI communities, Aboriginals or anybody else they deem unworthy. The Liberal Party was created in 1944 out of the wreckage of previous conservative parties who were thrown out of government because of their incompetence in the early stages of WW2. Since then the Liberals have proven themselves fiscally incompetent, militarily reckless and socially regressive, yet they have been in power for 50 of the past 80 years. They last lost government to the Labor Party in 2022 having been in power since 2013. This is Labor’s first election as a government since 2010.
Labor is a party created in the 1890s as the political arm of the Union Movement. The first Labor government was elected in 1904. It still retains strong Union ties, even though successive Liberal governments have weakened union bargaining power by making almost all strike activity illegal and union organisers personally subject to claims for financial losses by employers, such that Unions now represent only a fraction of the workers that they once did. Like the Liberal Party it consists of several factions who compete for ministerial posts. Unlike the Liberal Party, where the factions range from Centre Right to the dominant Far Right, the Labor factions range from Far Left to Centre Right.
The Greens are a party that arose out the environmental movement of the 1970s, although the party didn’t form until 1992. In its earliest iterations it can lay claim to being among the first Green political movements in the world. They are a left wing party whose factions seem to be based more on personalities than on policies. They compete with Labor for the left wing vote. This has led to a great deal of bad feeling between the parties at the organisational level. Voters couldn’t care less. It does however make Senate negotiations more fraught than would normally be expected.
This election continues the trend away from the two party (Labor/Liberal) system that prevailed throughout the 20th Century. Once 90%+ of first preference votes (number 1 on the ballot) could be expected to go to one of the two main parties, which made it almost impossible for anyone else to win a House seat. In this election the Liberals got 32%, Labor got 34% and Others got 33% of first preferences. The result of this is a trend towards more independents and Greens being elected at each future election. This election was a landslide, with a dominant Labor result, but if these trends continue future governments of either Liberal or Labor will likely be elected with a minority and only be able to form government with the consent of independents or Greens. If you are wondering how Labor achieved a landslide with only 34% of first preferences, it is because it receives the bulk of Greens second preferences. The two party preferred vote is the result once all preferences have been distributed.
As an example of preferential voting, the undecided Green seat is Ryan, Pete Downunder’s home electorate, where so far the Liberal candidate got 35%, Greens 29% and Labor 28% (at this writing, the vote count is at 86%) with minor parties taking up the rest. Since they are both left leaning voters, Labor voters will mostly preference the Greens over the right wing Liberals and Green voters will mostly preference Labor over the Liberals. Thus, if as seems likely the Green party is second and Labor third, then Greens will win the seat. This would leave the Greens with one House seat out of the four they held before the election. Should Labor come in second, then they would win the seat.
The Australian Senate functions slightly differently than in the US. It is a body of legislative review and has veto power over any legislation that is passed by the House of Representatives. It runs on majority rule, there is no nonsense about supermajorities or nuclear options. It consists of 76 seats filled by 12 senators from each of the six states and 2 senators from each of the two territories, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (think District of Columbia). The territories were not represented in the Senate until 1975. State senators go to election every 6 years (two House terms), territory senators go to election very 3 years (one House term). 39 seats out of 76 are required for a majority. The voting system for the Senate is tedious and complex, but in essence it’s a quota based proportional representation system which favours the smaller parties. When presented with it, quantum physicists have been known to run screaming from the room tearing their hair out.
Prior to this election there were 30 Liberal, 25 Labor, 11 Green, 2 One Nation, and 8 independent senators. This meant that the Labor government required Greens and independents support to pass any legislation through the Senate that was opposed by the Liberals. Support which was not forthcoming on a number of occasions.
To date the Senate count is only 76% complete, but a probable result for the new Senate looks like being 27 Liberal, 30 Labor and 11 Greens, with Others yet to be determined. The Labor and Greens numbers could form a left leaning Senate majority should they choose to co-operate. Fewer different parties involved in Senate negotiations generally results in fewer compromises in the legislation.
In Australian terms this election is a landslide victory. What is more remarkable is that it is the best result for Labor since 1943 (the middle of WWII). In Australia, it is usual for governments to come into office with thumping majorities and then have that lead whittled away in subsequent elections. In this election Labor has gone against that trend and substantially increased its representation in the House from an already excellent result in the 2022 election.
The pundits are already busy announcing that they knew the result all along. This is despite repeatedly announcing before the election that it was tight, that Labor was in trouble of losing its majority, yadda yadda. The pollsters also have egg on their collective faces as they too grossly underestimated the Labor vote.
Everybody has a theory to explain the result. The main one in the media seems to be that Dutton, the Opposition Leader, was inherently unelectable. This didn’t seem to be problem all last year when they favoured him and his party to win convincingly. So what changed between the end of last year and the election? What made Dutton unelectable? Did something happen in January this year to alter the political environment in Australia?
The obvious answer to all three questions is Trump. Trump happened. Threats to Canada happened. Threats to a fellow Commonwealth country do not go unnoticed here. Tariffs happened. People notice when their country gets slapped with tariffs by the US despite running a trade balance substantially in the US’s favour. They don’t like it when somebody disses our penguins. They don’t like Trump and they don’t like conservative politicians like Dutton who play footsie with Trump. Is the Trump Factor real? There are efforts in the Murdoch media to press the argument that it is not. Which makes it all the more convincing that is as real as day.
Although it didn’t help that Dutton was trying to sell an absurd nuclear power policy and that his culture war stances went down like a lead balloon. Agreeing with Nazis that Aboriginal “Welcome to Country” ceremonies were a woke imposition on our culture, didn’t find purchase outside of right wing media. The Liberals entrenched misogyny has also resulted in a widening gender gap. Women voters in normally safe Liberal seats have been voting in droves for female independents who are generally fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
Since Dutton lost his own seat in the election, on Tuesday the Liberals meet to elects a new leader. It is a contest between Angus Taylor, a Liberal Party stalwart of the old school, and Sussan Ley, one of the very few prominent women MPs in the Liberal Party. Given the gender gap in voting, if they are not suicidal they will pick Ley.
Big thanks once again to two of our Australia peeps, Viva BrisVegas and Pete Downunder, for their great work in keeping us informed!
Pete Downunder
It’s Viva BrisVegas with a B for Brisbane, not a C. I’ll be here for a while for any questions.
Jackie
We’re supposed to “”thank FFOTUS? I can get the thanks out, but can’t get the other half out LOL!
Yay for Labor!!!
Doesn’t Germany also have an election coming up?
Pete Downunder
In Ryan the Greens lead Labor by 592 votes with 4169 left to count as of last night our time. Counting should finish in the next day or two. Antony Green, the Australian Broadcasting Co’s election guru has called Ryan for the Greens but it’s not official yet. In other news the LNP is choosing its new leader later today, it’s between current treasurer Angus Taylor and Deputy Leader Sussan (with 2 s’s) Ley. Ley would be the first female leader of the LNP
Baud
Didn’t the Green leader lose his seat?
Does the one Green member get to be the leader?
Pete Downunder
@Baud: He did indeed, after 15 years or so. Beaten by Labor. If Ryan goes Green it would be the only Green seat left in the House. The Senate has 11 Greens, and the new leader will probably come from there. My understanding is that Elizabeth Watson-Brown, the Green house member is not interested in the position.
Viva BrisVegas
@Pete Downunder: Call me anything, except late to dinner.
Viva BrisVegas
@Pete Downunder: Sussan Ley was originally plain old Susan Ley, but changed her name when she became enamoured of numerology.
Pete Downunder
@Viva BrisVegas: I wondered where the name from. An interest in numerology does not speak well for her I’m afraid.
Baud
So Labor has a clear majority, right? In the Senate too?
Viva BrisVegas
@Baud: No, Labor will only have 30 Senate seats out of 76. The Greens will have 11 seats. So we expect a lot of dickering between them to go on.
Viva BrisVegas
@Jackie: I believe the German Federal election was last February. The Nazi AfD did quite well in seats, but since the other parties won’t ally with them, they have no power.
kindness
I see that picture and it makes me wonder if they have voting kiosks at the beach.
Pete Downunder
@kindness:
From memory that photo was taken at the polling place close to Bondi Beach in Sydney
WaterGirl
@Viva BrisVegas:
There’s so much I don’t know about how all these other governments work.
Pete Downunder
@WaterGirl:
The election process for the House is pretty straight forward once you understand preferential voting. The Senate voting system is so obscure I doubt one Aussie in a thousand could explain it accurately. I know I can’t.
Trivia Man
Im sorry to see the Greens come out with the wooden spoon but i appreciate their strategic voting
Pete Downunder
@Trivia Man:
Me too. For the Yanks reading this the wooden spoon is symbolic award given to the sports team which finishes the season in last place.
Viva BrisVegas
@Trivia Man: The Greens were a victim of Labor’s success. In the seats that they lost you would normally expect Labor to come third. This time around they came second. Which meant that Labor got Green preferences rather than vice versa.
It’s more likely than not that at the next election the roles will be reversed and the Greens will win back some seats.
Viva BrisVegas
That polling place with the swimmers was the Bondi Surf Bathers Life Saving Club.
It claims to be the oldest surf club in the world.
Trivia Man
@Pete Downunder: for cyclists its the Red Lantern.
Watching AFL at 3 am in the 90s the phrase that sounded so funny to me was, “the brisbane bears are having another red hot go at the wooden spoon.”
edit to wipe the egg off my face – we all know they were the BEARS!
Pete Downunder
By the way, because Australia has some of the most beautiful beaches in the world and because they also can be quite dangerous due to rip tides, sharks etc Australia has a volunteer army of well trained surf lifesavers who are considered the best in the world. At popular beaches they post flags about 100 yds apart and ask swimmers to swim between the flags to they can keep an eye on everyone and help any that get into trouble.
WaterGirl
@Pete Downunder: I was thinking of a higher level, live how things function once the elections are over.
For instance, do people in other countries understand things like the filibuster, or recognize that Biden basically had a 50-50 senate and Manchin and Sinema, so not everything could go our way.
WaterGirl
@Pete Downunder:
That’s clever!
Viva BrisVegas
@WaterGirl: Political nerds do. Most other people are aware there is a President and a Congress, but not who does what. Although it seems that also confuses the current US Supreme Court.
For me democracy is rule by 50%+1. All the US Senate rules about filibusters, blue slips, and supermajorities seem anti-democratic
In Australia we are used to party discipline. Things are hashed out in the party room and once agreement is reached everyone stays on the same page publicly. There have been people like Manchin and Sinema in Parliament, but when they crossed the floor they left the party.
Pete Downunder
@WaterGirl:
Most of the weirdness in the US electoral system, like the electoral college, are the legacies of slavery. I think we could do a whole post on that someday, perhaps aided by a real historian with appropriate expertise.
WaterGirl
@Viva BrisVegas: Boy, I could not agree more on democracy and the Supreme Court.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Do either of you think that the broader Australian electorate understands that Trump/MAGA is not just an American phenomenon but an American expression of a global problem threatening democracy?
bbleh
I like the alliteration and the meter in “fat wombat.” Seems like it should have other uses.
RJ
@Pete Downunder: It’s a standard photo they take every three years. Not that anyone minds
bbleh
@Pete Downunder: @WaterGirl: yeah and they move the flags quickly as tides and other conditions change. And often they’re pretty close together, even on either side of a netted enclosure! I was amazed at how attentive and active the guards were at Aussie beaches compared to US ones (when we have any at all).
Viva BrisVegas
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I’d have to say that the wider public here is just as apathetic about politics as in your neck of the woods. So the answer is mostly no
Trump is probably just as pervasive in the news here as in the US. He brings in eyeballs. His is the face of conservative extremism that people see. Nobody knows who Orban is.
I doubt that many people see a right wing tide even when they look.
Viva BrisVegas
@bbleh: Wombats are the cutest Australian animal. They leave those stinky koalas well behind in the cuteness stakes.
Harrison Wesley
@Viva BrisVegas: I kinda like quokkas. I’ve just seen pictures of them,though.
Trivia Man
@Viva BrisVegas: my local footy team is the Wombats. Hoping to play a game or two, even at my age. What i lack in conditioning i make up for in height.
Viva BrisVegas
@Trivia Man: Wombats make better NRL players than AFL players.
They are low to the ground and not very streamlined.
Viva BrisVegas
I’ve got the TV on in the background and they are doing the swearing in of government ministers by the Governor-General.
Viva BrisVegas
Sussan Ley has been elected Opposition Leader by her party.
She has got a lot of work to do to convince female voters that the Liberals don’t see them as second class citizens.
WaterGirl
@RJ: Don’t spoil it for me!!!! :-)
WaterGirl
@Viva BrisVegas: So we’re not holding the numerology thing against her? I am slightly giving her the side-eye about that.
Can you say more about this?
Doug R
In other commonwealth news, in Canada a few recounts have Mark Carney’s Liberals at 170 seats.
4 ridings were close enough for recounts, 3 by law and one seat with a 77 vote difference has been ordered to do a judicial recount after appeal.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/terrebone-recount-liberal-1.7532136
WaterGirl
@Doug R: Someone the other day mentioned a recount where someone won by only 1 vote? And that was after the recount.
Viva BrisVegas
@WaterGirl: In short, the Liberals have been presenting female unfriendly policies, like banning working from home, for decades.
They also have denied that any positive action needed to be taken to ensure female representation in parliament. The argument being that there were no barriers and talented women could make their way in the party with no help.
This has produced a party with only about 20% women. Sussan Ley is not just the most prominent woman in the Liberals, she is almost the only one.
The lack of female representation in the Liberals has resulted in the rise of the Teal independents.
Labor took a different path is now 50%+ women.
Omnes Omnibus
So it’s now okay to fat shame wombats.
Viva BrisVegas
@WaterGirl: I should also mention that several years ago, while the Liberals were in government, there was a notorious rape case that occurred to a Liberal Party staffer in Parliament House.
The ramifications of that are still ongoing, but you could look up the 2021 March 4 Justice on Wikipedia for details.
Suffice to say, that the Liberal Party as a whole and several ministers, including female ones, did not do the right thing by the victim.
Viva BrisVegas
@Omnes Omnibus: They don’t mind, they are comfortable with their body image.
Matt McIrvin
@WaterGirl: I doubt we can really expect Australians to understand things about the US government that Americans don’t understand.
(I think the reason that Trump’s use of dictatorial executive orders doesn’t disturb many Americans that much is that they thought the Presidency always worked that way, with the President simply making “law” by decree, which is also why they get upset at Democratic Presidents for being obstructed by Congress.)
WaterGirl
@Viva BrisVegas: Okay, thanks. It also helps when I translate…
She has got a lot of work to do to convince female voters that the Liberals (who are actually the right wing conservatives) don’t see them as second class citizens.
So the female the conservatives have elected is (almost) the only woman? And she believes in *numerology?
*Does she also have the crazy eyes that the female republicans often have?
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Only in service of a good thread title!
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin:
I laughed out loud at that very sad truth.
WaterGirl
Pete Downunder and Viva BrisVegas – thank you again so much for doing these.
I have found the 3 posts very interesting and educational, and I hope others have, as well!
ColoradoGuy
Nearly all the horrible things about the USA are a direct legacy of slavery. The “well-regulated militias” of the notorious Second Amendment were slave-catching bands of armed gangsters and extermination squads against Native Americans. Native Americans were considered vermin and had no real legal protection.
The Senate filibuster isn’t even a law, but a merely a custom, with no force of law. The Constitution is silent on the terms of Supreme Court justices, or even how many.
Viva BrisVegas
@WaterGirl: She looks pretty normal to me, but I’ve never seen her in person. I think she is regarded as one of the reasonable Liberals.
There are crazier ones, like Michaela Cash, who was too right wing to run for the party leadership.
I think the eyes thing may be US only.
Omnes Omnibus
@Viva BrisVegas: You say that, but what if they are putting up a good front? Poor, brave critters. You bastard.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Viva BrisVegas:
That’s what I was afraid of. It does nobody any good if they don’t recognize that what’s going on in the US is not isolated there, that the same conditions exist elsewhere that gave rise to MAGA
Matt McIrvin
@ColoradoGuy: I think “shall hold their offices during good behaviour” is usually interpreted as implying a lifetime term. That is, bad behavior is the only thing that can cause you to lose it (involuntarily at least).
Viva BrisVegas
@WaterGirl: No worries. I think we have a pretty good democracy here and I like to brag about it now and then :-)
WaterGirl
@Viva BrisVegas:
Well, you’ve got that going for you! I think the crazy eyes are creepy.
Omnes Omnibus
@Viva BrisVegas: Fucking League. Union all the way…
Viva BrisVegas
@Omnes Omnibus: They certainly put up a wide front.
Omnes Omnibus
@Viva BrisVegas: Natural props.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
Fat wombats are healthier in all measures. They are supposed to be fat. Nobody fat shames hippo’s, (mostly because they will kill you).
eclare
@Jay:
Plus even fat hippos will outrun you. Four legs always beat two.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: No one asks for a wombat for Christmas so that comparison is invalid.
Jay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-recruit-us-nurses-1.7533079
Sweet story,
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/nanaimo-infusion-tod-maffin-1.7519638
And Nanaimo is a bit Canadian Redneck.
A Canadianism is Q, “What is Gay Marriage called in Canada”
A, “We call it marriage, we don’t care what team you play for, it’s not Hockey”.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
Not even in Australia?
In Canada we only have House Hippo’s,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBfi8OEz0rA
They are pretty safe.
chopper
so there’s the liberal party, the national party, the liberal national party, the national liberal party, the party of national liberals, and the party of liberal nationalists
Omnes Omnibus
@chopper: Splitters!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
I wish House Hippos were real, they’re so cute. They’d make great pets
Viva BrisVegas
@chopper: It’s all marketing. They’re all the same variety of arsehole, just from different localities.
sentient ai from the future
@chopper: you from lgm?
Viva BrisVegas
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Only if house trained. Otherwise you will need to move out.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: Well then, find me the song about Christmas wombats.
BTW house hippos proved incompatible with hodags in Wisconsin. Sad really.
Jackie
@WaterGirl: Speaking of crazy eyes…. Remember “I’m not a witch” Michelle Bachmann? I’m kinda surprised FFOTUS hasn’t added her to his stable of crazy-eyed… She’d fit right in.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
Well, it’s a Christmas song by the Wombats, does that count?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEy4MUd5TWE
WaterGirl
@Jackie: Shudder.
I cannot think of her and her crazy eyes without also seeing that photo of her (sure seems like he’s gay) husband eating that corn dog at the state fair.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Viva BrisVegas:
Eww lol 😆
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: Well played.
Bostondreams
@chopper: Splitters, the whole lot!
Omnes Omnibus
@Jackie: The “I’m not a witch” candidate was Heather O’Donnell. Easy mistake to make.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
We’re good, right?
Jackie
@Omnes Omnibus: Ooops.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
What a more innocent time the early 2010s were. We had no idea how bad things were going to get. The Tea Party was the height of right-wing insanity and they all pretended to be “Constitutional Conservatives”, standing up against the “communist tyrant” Obama. They all carried around those Pocket Constitutions. What a crock all of that was
ETA: It’s hilarious they reinvented themselves like this after all of the illegal shit of the Bush ll era
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Yup.
Jay
@chopper:
@Omnes Omnibus:
@Bostondreams:
It’s a “territories” thing, each Australian territory has a different “Liberal” party that for a coalition for National Elections, but keep the funding and control for State elections.
Not “splitters”, just State Parties pretending to be a National Party.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: Don’t make us explain the joke.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
I know the origin of the joke, I know the meaning of the joke.
I just find it really weird.
Canada has Provincial and Federal Liberal Parties. Some are “liberal”, some are not. In some Provinces the Liberal “liberal” party collapsed and was able to be taken over by illiberal parties. Eg, BC Liberal Party.
The NYM “Liberal” at the Provincial level, really means nothing.
I just find it both weird, strange and a bit corrupt that Oz has no Federal Liberal Party, just a coalition of Territory “Liberal” Parties that come together only for Federal Elections, because they don’t want to share their local grift, nationally.
Chris T.
@Viva BrisVegas: They prefer the term “thicc”, but yes, the wombats are pro-mass (as most animals are, skinny = death in the winter!). At least, the ones in Tasmania that I met, are that way.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Now I can’t recall what she looked like, but I don’t want to google because crazy eyes are creepy, and who needs that in the morning?