(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: It was a long and, frankly, quite brutally ugly day today. I already know I have at least one more of those tomorrow. So I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.

Air raid alerts are up for all of eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine except for Odesa, Kirovohrad, and the western  oblasts at 8:05 PM EDT/3:05 PM local time in Ukraine. These alerts are for drone swarms.

Earlier today the air raid alerts were for ballistic missiles:

Over half Ukraine on alert due to Russian ballistic missile launch threat. Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks have killed dozens & injured hundreds of civilians.

Russia is ignoring the Ukraine coalition’s ceasefire demands. What will the consequences be?

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:50 AM

The Russians also once again struck civilian targets in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russia continues its ruthless attacks on civilians. Chaotic airstrikes on a village in Kharkiv’s Kupiansk district killed two people and injured seven more there and in nearby villages. The destruction is devastating.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:10 PM

Russia struck Kupyansk district of the Kharkiv region, killing two people, destroying their home, and injuring four others.

Russia kills people in the Kharkiv region every single day.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcripts after the jump.

Ukraine Is Absolutely Ready for a Truly Effective Format of Talks – Address by the President

13 May 2025 – 20:03

Dear Ukrainians!

Emergency response operations are currently underway in Kharkiv after a Russian drone strike. Preliminary reports indicate that no one was harmed. This was another Russian strike on an energy facility – a purely civilian one. Russia is being Russia. While everybody awaits their response to a ceasefire and direct negotiations, they respond with new strikes and attacks. The only one dragging out the war, the only one responsible for both the start and the continuation of the war, is Russia. The entire world understands this clearly. Pressure is essential – pressure to make Moscow stop thinking that the world can still wait. An end to the war is needed – a dignified and just one. Russia talks a lot about direct negotiations, but when it comes down to it, they hide. Decisions must be made. And they must be made with the one who is truly in control of what happens next. Right now, our team is actively preparing for a visit to Türkiye. Today, we have presented Ukraine’s position to all our partners in detail. I want to thank them for their support. Every call for a long-lasting and unconditional ceasefire matters. Calls for direct negotiations at the highest level are equally important. Putin is the one who determines everything in Russia, so he is the one who has to resolve the war. This is his war. Therefore, the negotiations should be with him.

Today, I want to highlight the statement made by the leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries – I want to thank them for their support, including for supporting negotiations. Overall, European leaders are making strong statements and taking decisive steps. I want to thank them for this once again. We also know, in particular, China’s stance regarding support for a ceasefire and negotiations. The United States is clearly and unambiguously saying that leaders must meet. Ukraine is absolutely ready for a truly effective format of talks.

Today, I received a report from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine about his contacts with our partners and our corresponding plans. The Head of the Office of the President has been in negotiations practically all day. The Minister of Defense also delivered a report today – at his level, there is corresponding important communication as well. We are working to ensure Ukraine’s positions are strong and that diplomacy yields results.

The internal situation in Ukraine is equally important – everything needed for the resilience of our state and the well-being of our people. Today, there was a report from the Head of the State Tax Service, Mr. Kravchenko, on efforts to counter shadow schemes and ensure Ukraine’s financial stability. This is very important for our entire state. There have been good results. Despite the war and any diplomatic turbulence, all social payments in Ukraine are ensured. And this will continue.

I want to thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska had a meeting today with Andreas Schliecher, who is the Director for Education and Skills at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Head of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).

President Zelenskyy also held a press conference about the potential for negotiations in Turkey at the end of the week:

Georgia:

Day 167. The moments of tonight’s gathering.

By now, everyone knows we won’t stop, and each protester represents thousands that would rush immediately in case of a minor incident.

This well end in new, free & fair Parliamentary elections. #GeorgiaProtests

📷 Khatuna Tsiklauri

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:24 PM

FIRST moments*

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:29 PM

Day 167 of #GeorgiaProtests

“Glory to heroes! Victory to Georgia! Victory to Ukraine! Down with Russia’s rotten Empire!”

📷 Giorgi Burjanadze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:32 PM

1/ With its new bill, Georgian Dream is making it easier for the Constitutional Court to ban opposition parties.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

2/ The Constitutional Court will have a nine-month deadline to review cases on party bans, however, the court will be able to dissolve a party within 14 days before an election if it deems its membership, goals, and activities identical to those of an already banned party.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

3/ This change would allow Georgian Dream to follow through on its pre-election promise to ban all major pro-European opposition parties, which it refers to as “satellites of the UNM.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

4/ Earlier, party leader Mamuka Mdinaradze said the final report from the investigative commission in Parliament would provide a strong basis for declaring these parties unconstitutional.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

This morning, regime PM Kobakhidze published an open letter of utter desperation to President Trump and VP Vance.

It’s full of lies, but I’ll distinguish two points:

1. He says that by 🇬🇪 participation in Iraq and Afghanistan, 🇬🇪 saved the US more money than the US has contributed to Georgia 1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

(and then lists various important exceptions that in total still amount to a greater US assistance). The Georgian Dream despised Georgia’s participation in Iraq and Afghanistan, considered it a futile sacrifice and even campaigned to withdraw the country from the missions. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

It’s the previous government and, first and foremost, the people of Georgia who contributed, and the US keeps its allyship with the people of Georgia.

2. Journalists asked illegitimate GD MPs what they thought of the letter, and one of them, 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Nikoloz Samkharadze, stated that external legitimacy doesn’t matter; it’s internal public legitimacy that matters, including that from journalists (GD representatives are so desperate for any semblance of legitimacy that they like to portray that 4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

journalists asking them questions within the walls of the Parliaments means the journalists admit their legitimacy).

Things might not be unfolding as fast as people hoped, but it’s still going in the right direction. 5/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

If we keep the pressure of protests and non-engagement at home, and the subsequently derived international pressure, the Georgian Dream will have ever-deepening trouble. 6/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

This means that we as the opposition should not give them a helping hand in their time of distress – and we should deprive them of legitimacy by not taking part in the local elections in October. 7/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Otherwise, they’ll check the internal legitimacy box, the opposition will not be able to call a foul post factum, or gain any public sympathy whatsoever, and the regime will try to start the process of internal and external normalization. 8/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Keep it up. And Georgians, keep pressure in terms of non-participation in the local elections.

I’ll share the full text of that letter once available in English. 9/9.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

‪Oh, here it is. civil.ge/archives/680…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:51 AM

“TV Pirveli” journalist Mariam Makasarashvili sustained a concussion after she and cameraman Nukri Kapiashvili were attacked by the father of Giorgi Shinjikashvili, Kvemo Kartli’s First Deputy Governor, while asking about his resignation.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:22 AM

Germany:

Thanks to Scholz, Taurus has become a symbol of Germany’s vulnerability to nuclear coercion. If Merz fails to deliver the weapon system after the ultimatum expires, he too forfeits his credibility. I’d be cautiously optimistic that his advisors and he himself are aware of that.

1/2

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM

That said, it’s important to remember that Scholz’s delaying tactics mean the Taurus still needs to be integrated and Ukrainian personnel trained.

Three months is an optimistic estimate; four to six is more realistic. So, in any case, Taurus will not be operational in Ukraine anytime soon.

2/2

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM

Also, there is a chance that Taurus won’t be delivered because a US veto.

ITAR restricitons apply to Taurus deliveries, unfortunately, due to the integrated US-origin turbofan engine and GPS seeker.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:12 PM

German Taurus were backfitted with the American GPS receivers upon midlife upgrade and brought to the South Korean standard. Those are the 300 that received the MLU. The other 300 are currently not equipped with an American GPS receiver (until their upgrade is completed).

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:18 AM

But I could have been clearer on this.

This being said, the engine has always been American in origin, so ITAR restrictions would have applied regardless of whether Germany wanted to deliver midlife upgraded or original versions.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:19 AM

I was not concerned under Biden regarding an American veto, given that he has stated that he has no issue with allies delivering long-range strike weapons.

I’m not so sure under Trump. Depends on his mood and how long is last phone call with Putin is in the past.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:21 AM

The US:

“It could be 10-15 years — that’s the sort of timeline we talk about.”

Why Trump’s Ukraine resources deal will take a decade to produce results www.ft.com/content/cccc… via @financialtimes.com

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 13, 2025 at 1:27 AM

From The Financial Times:

The resources deal that Donald Trump has struck with Ukraine will not yield mining production for at least a decade and require huge private sector investment to get projects off the ground.

That is how companies and industry veterans view the agreement, ratified by Kyiv’s parliament on Thursday, which aims to lift investment in the Ukrainian mining and energy sectors and create a joint “reconstruction investment fund” from the proceeds of future projects.

“It could be 10-15 years — that’s the sort of timeline we talk about,” said Eric Rasmussen, former head of natural resources at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Peter Bryant, chair of mining advisory group Clareo, said the accord “does little to de-risk the supply chain in the next 10 years, as it will take at least that long to discover and develop mines” in the eastern European country.

Ukraine’s commercial natural resources include iron ore, coal, lithium, graphite and titanium-bearing ores. It is also Europe’s third-largest gas producer. Future oil and gas developments will be included in the resources deal, and could be quicker to develop than mining projects, observers said.

Yet big obstacles, including Russia’s continuing war on Ukraine, patchy geological data, severely damaged infrastructure and the potential for corruption — on top of the ordinary challenges to set up any new resources project — mean it could be 2040 before mines developed under the deal are producing minerals.

Yulia Svyrydenko, a Ukrainian minister and signatory to the deal, told reporters on Thursday that the fund itself would be operational “within a few weeks”.

However, several steps remain before there can be tangible results, with years of geological exploration required before a feasibility study is produced and a project begins raising money for development.

The US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund only covers new projects, so existing sites such as the iron ore mines operated by the FTSE 250 Ukrainian miner Ferrexpo and the iron ore prospect developed by Toronto-listed Black Iron would not be covered.

Even Ukrainian officials acknowledge there would be a long wait before the fund starts distributing profits.

“We expect that for the first 10 years, fund profits and revenues will not be distributed, but instead reinvested into Ukraine — into new projects or reconstruction,” Svyrydenko said on X on the day that the deal was signed.

One further obstacle is access to the Soviet-era geological survey data that maps Ukraine’s mineral wealth, much of which is classified due to the war. Experts also point out that, given Ukraine’s long history of mining, the best deposits may have already been exploited.

“This romantic idea that there’s lakes of lithium to be tapped is just not the case,” said a mining executive operating in the country, adding that the US-Ukraine deal was “not going to move any needles” in the next decade.

Hugo Corden-Lloyd, senior associate at the Risk Advisory Group, was another to note the “myriad” risk for companies. These ranged from “your usual corruption and bribery issues to physical security. Will mining companies have to cover the cost of clearing land of any unexploded ordnance?”

For Jim North, former chief executive of Ferrexpo, “the big question is: ‘What does a ceasefire look like?’”

Russian retention of the Ukrainian land it occupies, which includes significant coal mines and some lithium resources, would reduce Ukraine’s opportunities.

More at the link.

As I’ve written before there is no deal here. Yes, there’s documents with signatures, but on the US side this isn’t being submitted to the Senate to ratify, which means it isn’t binding on the US the way a ratified treaty would be. It’s just like the JCPOA was, which didn’t survive the change in administration from Obama to Trump. When you add in all the complications detailed in the reporting, as well as the fact that there’s an existing agreement between Ukraine and the EU member states for access to these resources, and there’s no there there. This is vaporware that the Ukrainians agreed to so the President could claim he made a deal to the benefit of the US. There’s more here than whatever that mess with the Brits that was announced last week is, but not by much.

According to Clash Report, Trump will not travel to Istanbul for the negotiations.

Instead, the U.S. President will send his special representatives, Witkoff and Kellogg.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 8:24 AM

Who could’ve possibly predicted?

Back to Ukraine.

Delighted to see our portfolio of investigations on Russia’s war in Ukraine shortlisted for @gijn.org Sigma Awards. The revelations contribute to mounting evidence of war crimes and show what can be achieved when forensic reporting is combined with visual storytelling.

gijn.org/stories/sigm…

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

In a groundbreaking investigation, we used facial recognition software to identify Ukrainian children given false Russian identities and listed for adoption.

@alisonkilling.bsky.social @christopherjm.ft.com @peter.andringa.me @digitalcampbell.ft.com @samlearner.bsky.social
on.ft.com/433Mpgw

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Inside Mariupol: Russia’s new Potemkin village exposed appalling conditions endured by locals under occupation — and the oligarchs profiting from the sham rebuild.

@alisonkilling.bsky.social Polina Ivanova @peter.andringa.me @digitalcampbell.ft.com @carolinenevitt.bsky.social

ig.ft.com/mariupol/

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Our harrowing report on life in Kherson exposed an unprecedented Russian military strategy: the systematic use of drones to terrorise and depopulate a city.

@christopherjm.ft.com @inari-ta.bsky.social

on.ft.com/3SF3h8x

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Ukraine wants peace more than anyone. We accepted an unconditional ceasefire two months ago and remain ready for direct talks at the highest level in Istanbul.

Russia does not want peace. Every day this war continues solely because they keep attacking,

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 7:25 AM

searching for excuses to reject the ceasefire, and now refusing to attend the very peace talks they proposed.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 7:25 AM

Putin’s refusal to join Istanbul talks would be ‘last signal’ Russia doesn’t want peace, Zelensky’s chief of staff says #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) May 13, 2025 at 9:25 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential refusal to attend peace talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul would be the “last signal” that Russia is not willing to end the war in Ukraine, Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak said on May 13.

Zelensky invited Putin to meet in Turkey on May 15 to launch the first direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022, though the Kremlin has not revealed whether the Russian leader would attend.

“Up until now, we have not received an answer or confirmation that President Putin will be in Turkey. But President Zelensky of Ukraine is ready and will go,” Yermak said in a keynote discussion at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, in comments reported by Politico.

Yermak said Ukraine is “ready to discuss anything,” but “only if a ceasefire is achieved.”

“We’re ready to discuss any options that are on the table. There are many interesting and very strong options. The strongest guarantee is Ukraine’s prepared and trained military force, and our partners exactly understand what we need to prevent such a terrible war from happening again,” he said.

Yermak added that if Putin does not come to Turkey, it will be “the last signal” that Russia “does not want to end the war and is not ready for any negotiations.”

Ukraine and its European allies have urged an unconditional ceasefire starting on May 12 as the first step toward peace. Russia has ignored this proposal, continuing its attacks on Ukraine.

Asked by the Kyiv Independent whether Zelensky plans to make the trip even if Russia does not support the truce or if Putin declines to attend, a source close to the president said, “We are ready for all options. But of course, we are separately waiting for a response on the ceasefire.”

The last face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky took place in 2019 in Paris during a Normandy Format summit. Since then, there have been no direct in-person meetings between the two leaders.

Ukraine and Russia have not held direct peace talks since the unsuccessful negotiations in Istanbul in 2022.

Russian Buk-M3 air defense units (the one Russia used to shoot down MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014) tend to explode in a very satisfying manner. Here’s one being destroyed by a US Switchblade 600 loitering munition. It is planned to localize Switchblade production in Ukraine.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:14 AM

Very interesting exclusive footage shared by 14th UAS with @Teoyaomiquu.bsky.social shows a mass launch of Ukrainian long-range ‘Chaklun’ kamikaze drones from dedicated launchers targeting Russian positions.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 12:33 PM

UA 2S22 vs 2 RU D-30.

May. 2025. We still use artillery vs artillery. And I fucking love it.

Community, we again need your help with Avenger antennas for drones. The price is 4 000$. Support, please🔽

WFP: secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg…

PP: [email protected]

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— kriegsforscher.bsky.social (@kriegsforscher.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:25 AM

I am definitely not the best film editor but we have our personal record:

– 2 D-30 with the help of artillery are taken out;
– 1 D-30 with the help of FPV;
– 1 2A36 with the help of FPV.

— kriegsforscher.bsky.social (@kriegsforscher.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:31 AM

Not really sure where Kriegsforscher and his unit are fighting right now.

An airstrike by a MiG-29 on Russian frontline positions. Two incoming bombs aren’t clearly visible, but they appear to be AASM Hammers. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 8:51 AM

Kharkiv:

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ russian drone struck the downtown.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:11 AM

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ russian drones again. It’s the second attack today.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM

Russian occupied Crimea and southwestern Russia:

First Ukrainian drone attack since “Putin’s Parade Paranoia” “ceasefire” on May 8: Ukrainian drones heading for Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea and SW Russia. Map from t.me/dronbomber

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:26 PM

The Pokrovsk direction:

Construction of Ukrainian anti-infantry defense lines made of barbed wire on the Pokrovsky Front. More and more such anti infantry fortifications are appearing.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:05 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Air strike on Russian river crossing somewhere in the Kursk region filmed by Russians.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:38 AM

Destruction of the Russian Uragan-1 MLRS on the BAZ chassis Kursk region. First, the strike was carried out by a FPV drone, then HIMARS arrived.

This is only the second confirmation of the loss of the Russian Uragan-1 on the BAZ chassis. (51.4554722, 34.5064444) t.me/ukr_sof/1622

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:52 AM

The Lyman front:

Ukrainian soldiers of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU “Steel Lions,” captured a citizen of Uzbekistan on the Lyman front.

Umit (his name) joined an assault, got hit, got lost, and ended up at the positions of the Ukrainian brigade.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:43 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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