A quick housekeeping note: The good news is that today went far better than I expected, but it was still long and I’m exhausted. So I’m just going to run through the basics.
As of 9:55 PM EDT/4:55 AM local time in Ukraine air raid alerts are up over almost all of central and western Ukraine for Russian drone swarms.
Putin is not going to Turkey to meet with President Zelenskyy:
Trump will have to generate an infeasibly massive amount of spin to be able to blame Zelensky for Putin chickening out of the Turkey talks.
www.bbc.com/news/article…
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM
From The BBC:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not among the names listed by the Kremlin as being due to attend peace talks on the war in Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday, despite calls from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky for him to attend.
Russia’s delegation will instead be headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, according to the Kremlin statement.
Zelensky had previously said he would attend the talks and meet Putin in person if the Russian president agreed, and said he would do everything he could to ensure the face-to-face meeting took place.
US President Donald Trump will also not be attending, according to media reports, despite previously hinting he would if Putin were there.
Zelensky will be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
He said he would attend direct talks in Istanbul with Russia, but only if Putin also attended.
“I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing,” he said in his nightly video address on Wednesday.
Putin and Zelensky have not met in person since December 2019. Russia and Ukraine last held direct negotiations in March 2022 in Istanbul, shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbour.
Fighting has raged in Ukraine since then. Russian forces have slowly expanded the amount of territory they control over the past year, mostly in the east of Ukraine.
On Sunday Putin called for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey’s largest city “without pre-conditions”. Zelensky then announced he would go in person and expected the Russian president to travel as well.
Putin’s suggestion of direct talks in Istanbul followed Western powers’ call for a 30-day ceasefire, after European leaders met in Kyiv on Saturday.
After Trump called for Ukraine to accept the offer on Sunday, Zelensky said he would travel there himself.
“There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally,” Zelensky wrote in a social media post.
More at the link.
Putin not attending was the most foregone of conclusions.
When delegations meet in Istanbul:
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I Am Waiting to See Who Will Come From Russia, and Then I Will Decide Which Steps Ukraine Should Take – Address by the President
14 May 2025 – 20:11
Dear Ukrainians!
Briefly about today. I want to thank the defenders of our skies for protecting us from “Shahed” drones and all other attack UAVs. Over a hundred “Shaheds” were launched overnight – a significant number were shot down. Not all of them, but every successful shoot-down saves our people and protects our infrastructure. There were also missile strikes today – Russian ballistics. While the whole world awaits a simple “yes” from Putin in response to the offer of direct talks – he continues to strike Ukraine. There is no military logic behind this. This is clear. It brings him nothing – and it never will. Russia is only prolonging the war, prolonging these killings. And I want to thank every country, every leader who is now putting pressure on Russia, so that the shelling finally stops, so that meaningful negotiations can take place at a level where real decisions can be made. To everyone helping peace and helping diplomacy – thank you.
Today, there was a very important statement from Pope Leo XIV, expressing the Vatican’s willingness to play a mediatory role. The Vatican can help diplomacy. There is support for a direct meeting from Global South leaders – and that voice is being heard. We also know China’s position regarding a ceasefire and negotiations. The position of the United States and Europe is absolutely clear. In fact, it is now more evident than ever to everyone in the world since the beginning of the full-scale war – it is evident that the sole remaining obstacle to peace is Russia’s lack of clear will to do it.
Today, we held several meetings with the team regarding the format in Türkiye. I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing. But we also hear that President Trump is considering attending the meeting in Türkiye. That could become the strongest argument. This week really may change a lot — but only may… Everything is being decided right now.
I want to commend our warriors. At this time, it is very important. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered reports today on the situation at the front – across all directions. Every day, there are over a hundred battles. The heaviest fighting is in the Pokrovsk sector and other areas in our Donetsk region. We are continuing our active operations in the Kursk and Belgorod regions – we are proactively defending Ukraine’s border areas. But all these combat actions are not our choice – they are our defense, defense against the occupier. The answers to all the questions about this war – why it began and why it continues – all these answers lie in Moscow. How the war ends depends on the world. Ukraine is ready for any format of negotiations, and we are not afraid of meetings. Tomorrow – in Türkiye.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Day 168. They tried to prevent us from closing Rustaveli, our basal threshold of protesting. As we say, “Rustaveli is indispensable but insufficient [to defeat the regime]”
Much more people rushed out than on a daily basis lately.
“Until the end!” – we chant.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The police had the order to arrest disobeying ones today as they wanted to prevent the Rustaveli blocking.
And look at those people just promenading their way into the street, unbothered. 💃🏻
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM
1/ Levan Tsutskiridze, chairman of the political organisation Freedom Square, says that over the past two months, they have been denied registration as a political party twice by the National Agency of Public Registry.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM
2/ According to him, this reflects Georgian Dream’s fear of new political forces and individuals “who enter politics with a clean record.”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM
3/ This resolution is one of the changes mentioned by Mamuka Mdinaradze in his discussions about declaring the United National Movement and its satellite parties unconstitutional.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Georgia’s student movements call on the opposition to not participate in the upcoming October local elections.
“We must not break the isolation the regime finds itself in. The opposition’s participation in the local elections would amount to granting legitimacy to the regime.”
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:11 AM
A 32-year-old participant of #GeorgiaProtests recalls rape threats against himself & family by police during December 2 crackdown.
They threatened to rape him with fireworks and told in graphic details what they would do to his wife and children as they would learn his address.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:31 PM
The US:
“The Americans had this simplistic idea — let’s charm Russia, put pressure on Zelenskyy, and we’ll get a deal,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the US to whom Vance made his comment at last week’s forum. “It turned out that simply charming Russia is not enough.”
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 14, 2025 at 12:35 AM
From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
When US vice-president JD Vance was asked about the war in Ukraine at a foreign policy forum in Washington last week, diplomats were expecting Maga-style criticism of Kyiv and veiled sympathy for Russia.
Instead, they heard something quite different. Vance said of a set of Russian proposals to end the conflict: “We think they’re asking for too much.”
Attendees were surprised. Vance was one of the main protagonists in the now infamous Oval Office showdown in February, when he tore into Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and accused him of failing to show enough gratitude to the US for its support — a scene that seemed to presage a complete rupture in relations between Kyiv and Washington.
Vance’s comments were part of a noticeable shift in tone by the Trump administration. US officials appear increasingly impatient with Vladimir Putin, as suspicions grow that the Russian leader, rather than Zelenskyy, may be the biggest obstacle to peace.
“The Americans had this simplistic idea — let’s charm Russia, put pressure on Zelenskyy, and we’ll get a deal,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the US to whom Vance made his comment at last week’s forum. “It turned out that simply charming Russia is not enough.”
But Trump’s most desired objective — a ceasefire that could lead to peace negotiations and an end to the war — has so far eluded him. Putin has rejected international calls to halt the fighting, despite threats from western powers — including the US — of tough new sanctions.
Russia’s apparent intransigence is proving an irritant to Trump, say observers. “You hear the frustration in [his] communication,” said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia. “He may be understanding that he has given up too much and not gotten anything in return.”
“Trump definitely sees that Putin isn’t playing ball,” said Eric Green, a former aide to president Joe Biden at the National Security Council who is now a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank. “But I’m not convinced that the consequence of that is going to be meaningful pressure on Putin.”
Ischinger said he was “delighted” that Vance had shifted on Russia and that the US and European positions on the war in Ukraine were “converging”. But the former German ambassador to the US added that the vice-president “didn’t take the next logical step, which would have been to say we now need to really turn the screws on Russia”.
Experts say Russia, meanwhile, is banking on the US president losing patience with the peace process. “Putin’s playing a long game and thinks he has time on his side,” said McFaul. “He’s calculating that Trump will lose interest and the Americans will cut off military assistance, and that will make the Ukrainian army weaker,” the former US ambassador to Russia said.
Others believe that the danger of the US president abandoning Ukraine has diminished in recent weeks.
Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff, said Trump would struggle to achieve one of his main goals — a reset of relations with Russia — without first resolving the problem of Ukraine.
“There’s too much at stake,” he said. “Yes, he could still walk away from Ukraine — but if he does that it would look too much like failure.”
More at the link.
To properly monitor or peacekeep, the coalition of willing forces must be on the frontline. If they are positioned “west of the Dnipro River,” then to me, as a citizen of a city in the far east,it sounds like the coalition is prepared to watch us burn—just to avoid any confrontation with Russia 1/3
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM
But what are you even going to do here if your goal is to… hide? This reminds me of the OSCE monitoring mission in Donbas during the Minsk process. That was a “Carpathian resorts mission” or “drinking the nights away in Kharkiv clubs mission”. But if someone died in Donbas
2/3— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM
—which happened every day—oh well! Why did he stand where Russians were dropping grenades from their drones? Idiot. That was their “monitoring.” We do not need more of it.
3/3— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Estonia:
Scandal at sea.
Russia sent a Su-35 fighter jet to stop Estonia’s navy seizing a tanker, breaking sanctions as part of Russia’s shadow-fleet.
Estonia demanded the crew head to port, then they tried to board the vessel, before the attack plane arrived and they backed off.
— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Given that the Russians put a Su-35 on station to target the Estonian Navy ship, discretion was the better part of valor. Remember, Russia is looking for an excuse to actually make their NATO on orders of the US started this war against Russia rhetoric real. The lesson to be learned here is that going forward from today, NATO/NATO member states need to have their own aviation assets on station flying CAP in overwatch of their ships when doing interdiction.
France:
France will transfer to Ukraine all wheeled CAESAR self-propelled howitzers produced in 2025, President Macron announced.
Around 12 units are manufactured each month, so the total could reach up to 144 — several times more than have been delivered throughout all the years of the full-scale war.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Russia still seeks to erase Ukraine.
Ukraine still fights to exist.
Whatever spectacle unfolds tomorrow in Istanbul, it will amount to nothing—there is no middle ground. It’s a performance for Trump to observe, assessing Ukraine’s readiness for peace, while Russia continues to kill us.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:47 PM
A reminder that despite efforts by both the Kremlin and the White House to undermine his position, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is extremely popular in Ukraine. A large majority are also against holding elections (which would be illegal in wartime anyway).
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Ukrainian Magura V7 naval drone with two AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:43 PM
/2. More photos of Magura V7
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 3:33 PM
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has officially shown the operation of the S-200 surface-to-air missile system for the first time.
The video shows the launch of a 5V28 missile from a standard Soviet 5P72V launcher, which was previously believed to be decommissioned.
t.me/c/1606301574…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Sumy:
Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Sumy with a missile. Tragically, one person was killed, and seven others were injured; three of them are in critical condition, reported the Regional Military Administration.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:06 AM
The number injured in Sumy climbs to 9
bsky.app/profile/twmc…
— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Kharkiv:
Russian drones are approaching Kharkiv right now ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:18 PM
In Kharkiv, the names of the occupying forces who attacked the residents of Czechoslovakia during the ‘Prague Spring’ are being removed from a memorial plaque.
Finally!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Toretsk:
Toretsk, before and after Russia liberated it from life itself.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Russia struck Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region with a glide bomb today, killing a 63 years-old man in his home.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:02 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Air strikes on Russian bridges in the Kursk region. t.me/soniah_hub/1…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:56 AM
On the Kursk–Sumy direction, Russians got hit hard. Ukraine’s Defense Forces delivered a precise strike on an enemy artillery position.
As a result, the ammo was destroyed, three occupiers were wounded and Russian D-20 howitzer also left the chat for a while.
t.me/c/1377735387…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Khakhovka, Kherson Oblast:
Aftermath of a drone strike on Russian Tor air defence system. Judging by the debris, it was a heavy Ukrainian quadcopter that was also knocked down by the blast wave from the detonating Tor. Kakhovka, Kherson region. 11.05.2025 t.me/dosye_shpion…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:33 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
😻🇺🇦 Odesa cat decided that he is now a tourist and climbed into a cable car cabin! Paws on the window, whiskers in the works, his purring: “Well, seagulls, envious, eh?” This stripy little rascal has clearly decided that he is the captain of this sky voyage!
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to get the grime off and rack out.
Everyone is most welcome.
And Stephen, thanks for the kind words. You’re most welcome. I saw your comment many hours after you posted it and didn’t want it to go unacknowledged.
Gin & Tonic
Of course. But sending Medinsky as head of delegation is a big “fuck you” to Europe and the US. It’s more insulting than simply sending nobody.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: That too.
Jackie
So, if Putin, Zelenskyy, and FFOTUS aren’t attending… will anyone be there? And, if so, to what purpose?
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
I kind of want that cat!😂😂😂
Thank you Adam.
priscianus jr
I expect Trump to say that Putin decided not to come because Zelensky would not be respectful to him and would not be wearing proper attire.
bjacques
Zelenskyy is in Istanbul to talk to the organ grinder, not the monkeys.