Quick housekeeping note: I’m fried. It was another long day. Not bad, just very long. So I’m going to just run through the basics so I can get cleaned up and rack out.
What they doin ova der is Vyvyshanka Day!
Vyshyvanka Day in Kharkiv ❤️🇺🇦
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Vyshyvanka is the genetic code of Ukrainians💛
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM
President Zelenskyy traveled to Turkiye today. He met with Erdogan and also held a press conference. Here’s that video:
Georgia:
Rustaveli avenue is blocked for the 169th night in a row, despite cold and spring rain. ✅ #GeorgiaProtests
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Please, have a look at the unlimited sadistic imagination of the regime police in Georgia. Personal stories below. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:05 PM
And this. bsky.app/profile/rusu…
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:06 PM
GD seems to be preparing grounds for expelling Western diplomats.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 4:50 AM
The US:
Donald Trump has said that “nothing is going to happen” on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal until he and Vladimir Putin meet, damping expectations for talks between Russian and Ukrainian ministers due in Turkey.
www.ft.com/content/a590…— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 15, 2025 at 11:14 AM
From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
Donald Trump has said that “nothing is going to happen” on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal until he and Vladimir Putin meet, damping down expectations for talks between Russian and Ukrainian ministers due in Turkey.
The US president’s comments threatened to thrust the latest peace efforts into disarray, as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were set to meet for the first time since 2022.
“Look, nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together, OK?” Trump told reporters on Air Force One before landing in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday as part of his Middle East tour. He said Putin “obviously . . . wasn’t going to go” unless the US president was also in attendance.
Trump’s remarks were later echoed by US secretary of state Marco Rubio, who said the US did not have “high expectations of what will happen tomorrow”.
Speaking in Turkey, where he is attending a meeting of Nato foreign ministers, Rubio said the US had hoped there would be “direct engagement” between the Russians and Ukrainians.
“That was not to be the case, or if it is, it’s not at the levels we had hoped it would be at,” he said.
“I frankly do not believe that we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump sits face to face with President Putin and determines what his intentions are.”
Trump had previously said he was open to taking a detour for the talks in Turkey, but decided not to after the Russian president made clear at the eleventh hour that he would not attend.
“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” Trump said on Thursday. “But we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying.”
More at the link.
I want to focus in on this bit:
“I frankly do not believe that we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump sits face to face with President Putin and determines what his intentions are.”
Putin’s intentions are very simple: to take Ukraine, to genocidally destroy everything in it and about it that is unique, and absorb into not just Russia, but his concept of the Ruskiy Mir/Russian world. Then after both stealing Ukraine and its resources, as well as destroying its culture and society, use it as a stepping stone to retake the other parts of the Soviet Union or imperial Russia that Putin believes either are Russia or are part of Russia’s historic near abroad and sphere of influence. The Baltics, Finland, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. That’s Putin’s intent. It is not hard to discern because he routinely spends hours at a time expounding on it on live Russian TV.
The US is proposing to resume the work of the Russia-NATO Council “within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement.”
It’s worth recalling that at the same time, Ukraine’s allies will likely not invite Zelenskyy to the NATO summit in order to avoid angering Trump.
🤯🤯🤯— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 8:36 AM
“Why would Putin go if I’m not going?”
🤦♀️🤡— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Again, more Western pressure on Ukraine to compromise (being told to send high-ranking officials to meet a 3rd-tier Russian delegation) rather than punishment for fascist Russia for making a mockery of the peace process.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:40 PM
As bad as Biden and his natsec team were on Ukraine, this is worse. Because for Trump and, as a result, for his natsec team, Ukraine isn’t a subject to be interacted with, but an object to be manipulated so that Trump can do some sort of deal with Putin, which is what he’s been trying to do since the beginning of his first term.
Back to Ukraine.
❗️“We have a top-level delegation, while the Russian one looks more like a mock-up,” – Zelensky.
“We’ll see whether they even have a mandate to make decisions. After my meeting with Erdoğan, we’ll reassess the format.”
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) May 15, 2025 at 5:20 AM
As the circus in Istanbul continues, russia just launched over 100 drones onto Ukraine, and the number is expected to increase.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:52 PM
I just learned that callsign “white” (Белый), the commander of the Akhmat unit who in the summer of 2022 “castrated” and murdered a Ukrainian POW, has been reported dead. Happy Vyshyvanka Day.
— Michael Sheldon (@michaelsheldon.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
Optic fiber drones inspect Russian base with tanks from the inside. t.me/BBpS_28/827
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Russian assault group in thermal cloaks destroyed by the 63rd Brigade. t.me/DeepStateUA/…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 12:50 PM
HUR also showed it’s Magura naval drone with an installed machine gun.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Kharkiv:
Every single day in Kharkiv region:
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Sumy:
Authorities in Sumy warn Russia is planning to attack the city about now, and say they even have information about the targets from intelligence sources – 7 and 9 Pryvokzalna Square, and 2 Shevchenko Avenue. They urge people to leave the areas.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Update:
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Lysychansk:
✈️💣 The destruction of the command post of an entire Russian regiment in a residential area of Lysychansk by the crew of Su-27, – Soniashnyk
🔝It is claimed that this is a record-breaking airstrike, as the damage was inflicted 60 km from the front line.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 11:12 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
In the morning, unidentified missiles completely destroyed a bridge in the village of Snagost, Kursk region — but the Russians are having a great time nonetheless.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 8:58 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight.
Here is some adjacent material.
🇺🇦 Biopark in Odesa is when you don’t have to fly to Africa! ✈️ 🐾
Here you can see lions, giraffes, zebras, meerkats and even kangaroos almost without cages! 🦁🦒🦓
Animals live in spacious enclosures, and some can be fed directly from the hands 🥕— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m fried and need some sleep. I’m gonna get the grime off and rack out.
Everyone is most welcome.
Gin & Tonic
Wonder why Michael Sheldon puts castrated in scare quotes. It actually happened, and in more than one instance.
Jay
Thank you, Adam. We appreciate all the work you do.
rekoob
@Adam L Silverman: Sleep well, Adam. We recognize your thanks and thank you for all your time and thoughtful insights.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1922983405982986715#m
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam!
There will be no meaningful movement toward a remotely faire political settlement, nor will Putin have any interest in even a temporary (in his mind) political settlement, until Ukraine is achieving victories on the battlefield & threatening Putin’s current gains, That is where the focus should be for Ukraine’s supporter, to help Ukraine be in that position. Everything else is pablum.
YY_Sima Qian
Merz has rightly been praised for his commitment to German rearmament in face of the Russian threat & strategic autonomy from the US. However, overall economic program of his coalition government could very well leave Germany more vulnerable to the AfD far right (which is now polling ahead of the CDU). & if the AfD end up in power through the ballot box, what is the point of rearmament, except to hand the reactionaries more powerful military & domestic security tools to wield? That has long ben the huge disconnect/blind spot among the Western centrist (including center-left & center-right) elites in face of the rising populist & anti-establishment discontent.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
OT: When the likes of Bonnie Lin, John Culver & Brian Hart are worried, especially coming from John Culver, everyone should take note.
One of the indicators, which John Culver had written about in the past, of the PRC being in no hurry to make invasion a realistic option is the lack of joint multi-brigade exercises that would be required for an amphibious assault operation across the Taiwan Strait.
Well, INDOPACOM Commander Admiral Paparo has recently shared info. concerning rapid escalation in the size & complexity of the PLA’s exercises since 2021. There is a pretty good interview w/ Admiral Paparo, where he explained the rapid improvement in the PLA’s preparedness. Key part:
Everything points to Xi being quite serious about his directive to the PLA to gain the ability to exercise a range of kinetic options wrt Taiwan (from selective quarantine, seizing offshore islands, full blockade, sustained punitive strikes, to full on invasion) with reasonable chance of success, & the PLA & the PRC MIC being equally serious about following the the directive.
Now, as Admiral Paparo & the authors of the FA article took pains to clarify, kinetic operation across the Taiwan Strait is ultimately a political decision, no decision has been made. All signs point to Xi being a highly nationalistic but very risk-averse leader, domestically & internationally. It has even manifested in the trade war. The PRC could have really put the screws to Trump, by holding off until shelves in the US start to go bare & prices skyrocket, before deescalating the trade war, to create a “Suez Crisis” moment wrt US power & standing. However, Xi prioritized the short term lowering of temperature in the Sino-US relationship & minimizing harm to the PRC export sector (all to create the space to solve domestic socio-economic challenges, where his priorities lie). Not the type to YOLO on kinetic action across the Taiwan Strait.
Also note that Admiral Paparo took pains to make clear his views & his advice are coming from the perspective & position of being a regional military commander, in service of the stated National Security Strategy designed by the civilian leadership. Unfortunately, the current civilian leadership in the US is extremely erratic, mercurial, ignorant & egotistical. As the authors of the FA article states, the current moment has heightened risk of miscalculation (by crossing red lines).
At the end of the day, Taiwan is a political challenge that defies a purely military solution.
YY_Sima Qian
A read that leaves me at a loss as to how to react, Trump operating w/o constraints, & Dems operating under tight self-imposed constraints:
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
Dunno. He links a long bellingcat investigative piece as a reply.
Tracking the Faceless Killers who Mutilated and Executed a Ukrainian POW (August 5, 2022, Bellingcat Investigation Team)
They use “mutilated” throughout the piece, for that particular incident.
Kayla Rudbek
The Vyvyshanka are beautiful and I respect the work, expertise, and time of the craftswomen (I think it’s mostly women, no insult to any men who practice the craft as well). Hopefully it becomes as famous as fair isle knitting.