A quick housekeeping note: Sorry this is coming in late. It was another long day here. Got a few more of them and then things should start to settle back to normal. I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.
The mid-level Russian functionaries that Putin sent to Istanbul decided to make Pytin’s objectives explicitly clear.
“We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”
Russia doesn’t want peace. If this wasn’t obvious from the fact they they started the war, it should be from this sentence
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:21 PM
“Maybe more of your loved ones will die”:
russia’s threat at #Ukraine peace talks revealed
russia says it’s ready to fight “forever”-despite nearly a million casualties.
euromaidanpress.com/2025/05/16/m…
— Eugene McParland 🇺🇦 (@eugenemcparland.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:11 PM
From EuroMaidan Press:
“We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” That was the message delivered by Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky to the Ukrainian delegation during recent peace talks in Istanbul, according to The Economist’s Oliver Carroll, citing an informed source.
Medinsky, who led the Russian side, also reportedly said Russia “does not want war” but is ready to fight for “a year, two, three—however long it takes.” Another statement attributed to him warned: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.”
These remarks came during a rare face-to-face meeting—the first between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in more than three years. The two-hour session resulted in a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange agreement, confirmed by Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, though no implementation date was announced.
According to Carroll’s report, the Russian delegation conditioned a ceasefire on Ukraine withdrawing all forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—regions claimed by Moscow since 2022 but only partially occupied. Ukrainian diplomatic sources said Russia also threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy, expanding its territorial demands.
A source told Reuters the proposals were “detached from reality,” while a Kyiv official told The Telegraph that Russia considered Ukrainian withdrawal a “minimum requirement” for any progress.
Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko also claimed that the Russian delegation issued threats to take Sumy region during the meeting.
Despite these allegations, neither delegation publicly mentioned any threats following the talks. Both sides acknowledged only the prisoner swap. Medinsky confirmed the deal and noted Ukraine’s request for a presidential-level meeting, but no additional negotiations were announced.
More at the link.
There’s a couple of different things to keep in mind. The first is that Medinsky and his colleagues are just mid-level equivalents of Lavrov. They are trusted to go out and weaponize Russia’s diplomatic power, but they are not in the inner circle around Putin and have no real influence within the Kremlin. The second is that none of these demands are even remotely surprising. Even though it is now completely clear to everyone that Putin cannot achieve his war objectives, he will demand that they simply be delivered to him or else. And then he’ll make additional threats and demands tethered to them. He can’t be negotiated with and, as a result, Russia cannot be negotiated with because negotiations arenot meant to get all the parties to their best alternative negotiated agreement, bur merely to drag things out another day, week, month, or year because he is convinced that the US, the EU, and NATO will either eventually run out of interest in providing support or one of the nativist, neo-fascist parties he supports either overtly or covertly will win an election and make things easier for him. He’s probing for mush and if he finds it he will order Russia to advance further until the probing hits steel.
President Zelenskyy addressed the European Political Community Summit today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Number One Priority Is a Full, Unconditional, and Honest Ceasefire – Speech by the President at the European Political Community Summit
16 May 2025 – 15:52
Thank you so much, dear friend, thank you so much, Edi, Prime Minister Rama, thank you!
And thank you, Albania, for hosting us today, not just in a beautiful country, but in a country that believes in Europe and stands for its future.
Dear friends!
Thank you all for your support, and I appreciate that we share the same understanding – this war, the war of Russian against Ukraine, must be ended as soon as possible, and in a just way. Ukraine needs peace. Peace in Europe depends on whether Ukraine will get it.
All of you know that this week we had a real chance to take important steps toward ending this war – if only Putin hadn’t been afraid to come to Türkiye. I was in Ankara yesterday – and thanks for participation and hosting us, President Erdoğan – and I was ready for a direct meeting with Putin – whether in Ankara or in Istanbul – and not just for a meeting, but to resolve all the important issues, to my mind. But he didn’t agree to anything. I mean, Putin. You can also see that the Russian delegation that came to Istanbul is of a very low level. None of them are people who actually make decisions in Russia. Still, I sent our team to Istanbul, led by Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, at least to see if those Russians can actually decide anything. Our number one priority is a full, unconditional, and honest ceasefire. This must happen immediately to stop the killing and create a solid basis for diplomacy, first of all. And if the Russian representatives in Istanbul today cannot even agree to that – to ceasefire, to this clearly necessary first step – then it will be 100% clear that Putin continues to undermine diplomacy. If that’s not the case, there must be at least some result today, starting with a ceasefire. The Ukrainian delegation has a mandate to make decisions.
As we saw yesterday, Russia sent almost the same people it sent in 2022. This shows that Russia hasn’t changed its basic approach – they make many statements, many threats, but solve nothing. They’re doing everything they can to turn this Istanbul meeting into a staged, empty process – just like the ones in 2022. It’s not us or Western leaders who are disrupting the negotiations, as the Russians have been claiming for years – it’s Russians who send empty heads to the talks, and that’s what destroys the meaning of diplomacy. So if it turns out that the Russian delegation really is just theatrical and can’t deliver any results today, the world must respond. There needs to be a strong reaction, including sanctions against Russia’s energy sector and banks. Pressure must continue to rise until real progress is made.
Ukraine is ready to take all realistic steps to end this war. I call on Putin to give his delegation real authority.
We need a full stop to the killing – long enough to give diplomacy a real chance. Secondly, we must build at least a minimum level of trust in the negotiation process. This can be done by releasing prisoners of war, returning Ukrainian children taken by Russia, and releasing civilian hostages currently held by the Russian side. Third, we need to clearly define which issues must be handled at the leadership level – not below. We all know who makes the real decisions in Russia. Fourth, together with the leaders and countries who are here with us today, we’ve begun to create a new security architecture for Ukraine and all of Europe. I thank everyone who is on board. Now it’s time to move to very practical steps. And fifth — the United States. President Trump wants to end this war. We need to keep working closely with the President and stay as coordinated as possible. Long-term U.S. support is also essential. An American backstop is needed. It’s important that we all work together on every level to make that happen.
Of course, I will keep you informed throughout the day about what is happening in Istanbul and whether there’s any chance the Russian delegation will take real steps to stop the killing and bring the war to an end.
Thank you, Edi, again for the invitation.
First Lady Zelenska gave an interview to the author’s project by Marichka Padalko:
Georgia:
Day 170 of continuous protests in Tbilisi.
#GeorgiaProtests— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 4:25 PM
1/ Medical expert Givi Chkhartishvili stated that redness is not an objective sign of injury.
He examined Irakli Dgebuadze and Mzia Amaglobeli on January 12 and was testified today at the Mzia’s trial.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM
3/ Mzia Amaglobeli, the founder and director of the online media outlets Batumelebi and Netgazeti, is currently in criminal detention for slapping Irakli Dgebuadze.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM
3/ The expert stated that Irakli Dgebuadze did not display any objective signs of injury, whereas Mzia Amaglobeli had bruises on her left shoulder, which she sustained on January 12.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM
4/ Regarding the redness, Chkhartishvili explained that since redness is not considered an objective sign of injury, he did not assess it or include it in his report.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM
5/ He added that he does not recall whether Irakli Dgebuadze had any redness at the time of the examination, but even if he had remembered, he still would not have documented it.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM
6/ “I probably have redness on my face right now, but no one hit me,” the expert said.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM
On May 16, in Batumi, Austrian Member of the European Parliament Lena Schilling(@lenaats.bsky.social) was attending the court hearing of the founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, journalist Mzia Amaglobeli.
Before the hearing began, Lena Schilling stated that she is in Batumi to support Mzia Amaglobeli
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 10:48 AM
🗣️ Ambassador of Sweden to Georgia, Anna Lyberg
On May 16, the ambassadors of Sweden, Germany, and Estonia to #Georgia attended the court hearing of journalist and founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, Mzia Amaglobeli, at the Batumi City Court.
#RepressionUnderAttack
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 11:36 AM
🗣️ Ambassador of Estonia to Georgia, Marge Mardisalu-Kahar.
On May 16, the ambassadors of Estonia, Sweden and Germany to #Georgia attended the court hearing of journalist and founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, Mzia Amaglobeli, at the Batumi City Court.
#RepressionUnderAttack
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Physical violence against family members of regime prisoners and their supporters is a new normal at the regime courts. #terrorinGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 6:12 AM
The US:
“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump he’s engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere. And Trump is falling for it.”
w/ top crew @maxseddon.bsky.social @henryjfoy.ft.com @guychazan.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/3a83…— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 16, 2025 at 4:17 PM
From The Financial Times:
In parallel to a brutal war along a 1,000km front, Russia and Ukraine are locked in a titanic diplomatic battle to persuade Donald Trump that the other is the real impediment to peace.
So Vladimir Putin took a big risk over the last week, slow rolling US negotiators over a peace proposal, according to officials familiar with the discussions, then refusing to turn up for talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey that he himself had publicly initiated.
So far, the Russian leader’s refusal to engage on terms set by others has been met with little resistance — and certainly not enough to compel concessions or alter the course of his war.
The clearest sign of that came when US President Donald Trump seemed to excuse the Russian leader’s no-show on Thursday and simultaneously questioned the whole point of the Russia-Ukraine talks, saying: “Nothing’s gonna happen until Putin and I get together.”
It was a gift to Putin, who has long sought a one-on-one meeting with a president determined to normalise US-Russian relations. For the Ukrainians, it revived their worst fears — that Trump will seek to cut a deal with Putin over their heads and sell Ukraine down the river.
“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump that he is engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere,” said a senior European diplomat involved in the negotiations between western capitals. “And Trump is falling for it.”
That suspicion is shared by some of America’s closest allies. Putin, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said this week, was “trying to lead the American president down the garden path” by refusing to come to Istanbul. “I’m pretty sure that the American president can’t be happy about that,” he told reporters in Berlin.
Much more at the link.
“The world will become much safer in 2–3 weeks,” Trump said. “I’ll meet with Putin as soon as we can arrange it,” he added.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:12 AM
The world will be no safer in two to three weeks than it is now. All that is going to happen is Putin is going to be able to drag things out for another two to three weeks.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
Obligatory:
Powerful op-ed by ex U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink:
“Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia…”
www.freep.com/story/opinio…
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 2:24 PM
From The Detroit Free Press:
I just came home to Michigan from three years in the toughest job of my life ― serving as the American Ambassador to Ukraine ― supporting our democratic ally against brutal, unprovoked aggression by Russia.
I have proudly served five presidents ― Republicans and Democrats ― to make sure the United States is the strongest, greatest country that the world has ever known.
I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine U.S. foreign policy ― with proper checks and balances by U.S. Congress. It is the role of America’s Foreign Service to execute that policy. Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.
As such, I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration’s policy and felt it was my duty to step down. After nearly three decades serving our country, I resigned as our ambassador to Ukraine.
I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity. I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement. And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering.
Much more at the link.
Back to Ukraine.
JDAM air strike by MiG-29 on the Russian positions t.me/soniah_hub/1…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Russian occupied Crimea:
Crimea is detonating 👀🔥
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Ammunition being ejected from the explosion site in Perevalne.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:45 AM
💥/1. Explosion at Russian military base in Pereval’ne in Crimea which was attacked by drones this morning.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM
/2. Another view on the detonation of the Russian military base in Perevalne, Crimea, after morning’s drone attack.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:49 AM
/3. Ammunition from detonating Russian military base flying in the air.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 4:26 AM
/4. Russian military films exploding military warehouses in Crimea
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Devastating blasts in Crimea: ammo depot in flames, major transport routes closures #Ukraine
— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) May 16, 2025 at 10:30 AM
From UAWire:
Morning of May 16 began with reports of explosions near Simferopol, Sevastopol, and several other Crimean locations. Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported that an ammunition depot in Perevalnoye was set ablaze, leading authorities to shut down the Simferopol-Alushta highway, a major artery passing through the afflicted area.
Crimean Wind also posted a video showing what is purportedly the fire engulfing the ammunition store of Russia’s 126th Coastal Defense Brigade at Perevalnoye. According to Krym. Realii, the base suffered two prior assaults in 2023 alone. The channel further reported, citing reports from it subscribers, that the emergency services were heading towards the scene.
The Russian Ministry of Transport initially noted partial highway closures opening back up by 8 a.m. Moscow time.
Renowned OSINT source Dnipro Osint also confirmed that the videos posted by the Crimean Wind showed the fire at the 126th Brigade’s ammunition depot. A precise geo-int analysis concluded explosions occurred at a zone identified as a small vehicle park on the military premises.
The saga continued with reports of explosions reverberating throughout Yalta, Gurzuf, Alupka, Alushta, Cape Fiolent, Balaklava, Bakhchisaray, Kozachka, and the Belbek and Kacha airfields.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that 21 drones were intercepted over the peninsula, while an additional 43 were neutralized above the Black Sea waters.
Kupyansk:
Kupyansk and its surrounding areas were again targeted by Russian shelling last night, resulting in the injury of an 88-year-old woman.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Kyiv:
Woke to anti-aircraft gunfire and then loud but far off explosion in Kyiv this morning – video shows drone that was downed in west of Ukrainian capital. Wonder how “peace talks” will go today…
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 12:42 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Ukrainian SSO fighters, Bombus Balista unit, hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone using remote detonation in Sukhinovka, Kursk Oblast. The aerial detonation occurred on approach to the target.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Approximately, Kursk direction: On May 15, Russians attacked with armor, infantry, moto/quad vehicles. Ukrainian 92nd Brigade defenders crushed them with mines, artillery, drones. In the air, Ukrainian forces smashed Russian gear.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Donetsk Oblast:
Ukrainian fighters of K-2 Battalion, 54th Brigade, keep destroying Russian “sheds” in Donetsk! Foggy landscapes are marked by smoke and dust from the wrecked scrap of Russia’s army.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Podolsk, Moscow Oblast:
Sounds of explosions were heard this morning in Podolsk, near Moscow.👀🔥
Russian media reports that warehouses caught fire at a machine testing station.
Local telegram channels say that at least three explosions were heard initially, followed by a fire and more detonations.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:12 AM
A sudden fire erupted at a machinery testing station warehouse near Moskow. Also, Crimean Wind reports explosions in Crimea: 126th Russian Coast Guard Brigade depots in Perevalne burn and detonate.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:01 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
🇺🇦🐶 I’m so happy to see you guys!
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Open thread!
Doug R
He got trump elected, didn’t he?
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to get cleaned up and rack out.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
I didn’t know that ammo could fly!
Thank you Adam.😌
NotoriousJRT
Thanks for your continued, faithful commitment to this, Adam. It is remarkable.
BSChief
Adam, thank you for all you do. Is Ukraine currently receiving any U.S. military assistance? My understanding is that the U.S. is currently selling arms to Ukraine for cash, not as assistance.
Ten Bears
Wouldn’t bother me one damned bit if someone ran a nuke up Putin’s ass and capped it off
Kayla Rudbek
@Ten Bears: right now, the only way I would want to see Moscow is through a bomb sight
Manyakitty
@Kayla Rudbek: time to send the couchfucker for a visit.
Amy!
Fuckwits. Severe case of short term memory loss. Ваше благородие, Госпажа Удача. … I was in Russia (academic stuff) in the early nineties. Their Afghanistan adventure was a recent memory, and according to the folks I hung out with, the slaughter (and painfully stupid handling of it) was one of the contributing factors for the collapse of the USSR and its replacement by the RF (I was there both before and after the attempted coup, but missed about four months around the excitement).
Russians are a lot more likely to remember that war. The Great Northern War is not really a part of living memory (I suppose they could be teaching it in schools for some reason, but it’s not a good parallel (Russia had allies then!), and it’s not a struggle between two players on the periphery for dominance over the center/core territories of Europe. Afghanistan? Russia wanted to demonstrate its superiority over a territory rightly belonging to it. Afghans took exception.
I honestly can’t imagine that the dorms and other places where draft and recruitment happens aren’t having drunken send-off parties of their comrades, complete with Vashe Blagorodie. Since this war is mostly being fought with drafts and economically coerced ‘volunteers’ out of Central Asia and Siberia, and the Russian armed forces are continuing their tradition of only bothering to train the soldiers tough enough to survive their first battle, I’d expect to see the ‘Federation’ experiencing revolts, especially as some of the soldiers rotate out and return home. Chechnya is a likely spot, I think.