War for Ukraine Day 1,178: Russia Commits Another War Crime in Sumy

Quick housekeeping note: Another long day and I’m so completely fried it’s like I’m double battered and double fried. Imagine what would happen if the Belgians made deep fried Twinkies. So I’m going to just run through the basics again so I can go to sleep.

Russia attacked a civilian bus in Sumy earlier today:

Imagine the level of cynicism it took to strike an evacuation bus—to murder people who were simply trying to escape their army, to kill those whose lives they had already destroyed.

Well, Russia doesn’t need to imagine.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:20 AM

Shortly after that happened, this happened:

Trump: “If Putin didn’t get stuck in the mud with his army tanks all over the place, they would’ve been in Kyiv in 5 hours”

The president of the United States spreading russian propaganda point that honestly sounds dumb after 3+ years of full-scale war

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:33 AM

Trump: I have a great relationship with Putin. We’ll likely make a deal; I’m tired of endless meetings. Steve Witkoff did an incredible job, but I’m the only one who can handle this. Putin’s tired, looks bad, wants to seem strong. If his tanks didn’t get stuck, he’d be in Kyiv.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 4:12 AM

February in Ukraine is NOT mud season!

But wait, there’s more!

“A ceasefire will take place,” but will it, tho? 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 11:14 AM

A ceasefire will not be taking place.

President Zelenskyy did not make an address today, nor hold a press conference. He did meet with PM Carney in Rome:

Zelenskyy has arrived in Rome and met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 12:41 PM

First Lady Zelenska participated and address the Return, the Path to Mental Recovery conference.

Georgia:

Day 171. Since the regime had their propaganda “Family Purity Day” and march today, their thugs vowed to not allow (us “gays”) to close Rustaveli tonight, as we do every day.

But we had other plans. ✊🏻 #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM

Propaganda loves calling us vandals. But not a single civilian vehicle or private property has been harmed in two years of pro-independence and pro-European protests in Georgia.

By contrast, regime thugs killed a person in 2021, injured many more & continuously harm property.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 8:10 AM

Clergy & parish members of Georgian Orthodox Church march to mark “family purity day.” Church introduced holiday in 2014 following a hate violence against people marking International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia on May 17, 2013.
🎥 Nini Gabritchidze/Civil.ge

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— Civil.ge (@civil.ge) May 17, 2025 at 7:33 AM

Parallel gathering took place in front of parliament, with activists holding posters featuring those jailed over ongoing #GeorgiaProtests. Among them were family members of political prisoners.
📷 Nini Gabritchidze

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— Civil.ge (@civil.ge) May 17, 2025 at 7:36 AM

Last year, Georgian Dream government pronounced “family purity day” a public holiday while further cracking down on fundamental rights of LGBTQIA people. More: civil.ge/archives/640…

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— Civil.ge (@civil.ge) May 17, 2025 at 7:37 AM

Yesterday was DAY 170 of #GeorgiaProtests

Friends and enemies alike know by now that we are not going to stop.
And you can help us avoid costs by:

1. Non-engagement with the regime;

2. Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions;

3. Aiding independent media & CSOs with all possible means remaining.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:53 AM

Estonia:

Panel on shadow fleet at #LennartMeriConference. Estonian DM said this week was the first time that Russia had sent a fighter jet to protect a ship in the shadow fleet. The ship Estonia tackled was “without a flag”, he says (my understanding is that it had two spurious flags).

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:12 AM

Lithuanian FM says many cable incidents in Baltic Sea “happened because the crew didn’t know what they were doing”. Says that EU, US, UK sanctions on shadow fleet have less than 50% overlap, so lots of ships still being missed. #lennartmericonference

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:26 AM

John Mead, dep cdr at NATO Brunssun. Says Baltic sentry has been NATO’s first major op out of Finland and Sweden & “seamless”. Points to brand new HQ in Rostock doing integration across Baltic. NATO introducing “Maven smart system” – AI command & ctrl, by Palantir – next week, during an exercise

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:35 AM

Estonian DM says they’ve looked into seeking changes to UNCLOS to counter the shadow fleet but big risk is that countries like China would exploit that to inspect every vessel sailing in the South China Sea. “It’s not only for the Baltic Sea, but it’s a global impact.”

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:40 AM

Lt-Gen John Mead: “Most of the levers against the shadow fleet are going to be economic” such as enforcement of sanctions. Says threats to undersea infrastructure not same as shadow fleet, even if the issues sometimes overlap . NATO mission has hailed 1,800 ships to check status.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:48 AM

German MP Roderich Kiesewetter says that the country’s rules impose severe constraints on how suspected Russian drone flights can be shot down in German airspace. “To show deterrence is to adapt the domestic law.”

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:53 AM

Estonian DM: When Russian jets entered Estonian airspace this week we had one minute. By the time we would’ve scrambled they’d have been out and we wouldn’t have engaged in international airspace.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 3:59 AM

Italy:

🇮🇹🇺🇦According to multiple Italian media outlets, Italy is preparing its 11th military aid package to Ukraine, which reportedly will include:

•400 M113 armored personnel carriers (APCs)
•A SAMP/T air defense system
•Additional ammunition and supplies formiche.net/2025/05/ucra…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:09 AM

The Coalition of the Willing:

Eleven weeks ago a “coalition of the willing” gathered together to discuss what they were willing to do. Since then they haven’t appeared to be willing to do anything at all. 🔗👇

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— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@glandsbergis.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 5:40 AM

The Coalition of the Willing doesn’t seem willing to do anything at all.
Read the full article:
landsbergis.com/the-coalitio…

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— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@glandsbergis.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 5:40 AM

From Landsbergis’s own site:

Eleven weeks ago a “coalition of the willing” gathered together to discuss what they were willing to do. Highlights of their progress so far:

Macron had to remind his colleagues that sovereign countries do not need Putin’s permission to deploy troops in Ukraine.

Poland opposed deploying troops anyway.

Merz said Taurus was on the table, then took it off.

A decision was made to issue a ceasefire ultimatum, but then a decision was made not to enforce it. This was maybe due to nobody having a plan to enforce it, which raises questions about the wisdom of issuing it.

Trump, perhaps worried that Europeans would steal his Nobel Peace Prize, torpedoed their plan and backed a different idea, which didn’t work, so he denied backing it. His position is now “nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together”. This sounds a bit too much like 1938, you might say.

Merz says frozen assets will be used “if” that’s legal. But we have known it’s legal for a very long time. Why couldn’t he just say the assets will be used, without the “if”?

Putin was threatened with “crippling” sanctions, which later became a threat to initiate preparations of crippling sanctions, which subsequently turned into an ordinary round of sanctions that are just as crippling as being poked with soft cushions in a Monty Python sketch.

While I obviously wish them all the success in the world, I am wondering why is it so hard to find evidence that the coalition of the willing is actually willing to do anything meaningful, let alone gamechanging.

For example, we have heard a lot about the thousand ships of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. And after months of negotiations, Europe has managed to agree on sanctioning fewer than 200. Add that to the 100 previously sanctioned and we are fast approaching 300! Out of a thousand.

That means 700 ships are still sailing from St. Petersburg to wherever—carrying Russian oil and bringing back yuan, rupees, or whatever currency their buyers use. And that means Russian coffers are still being filled with money.

Putin understands how EU rules (don’t) work, and guys—he’s not exactly trembling.

We can’t even make serious progress on Ukraine’s EU accession. In fact, we are going backwards. The EU will reintroduce pre-war tariffs on Ukraine starting June 6. This decision will cost Ukrainians more than €3 billion. At the same time, high-ranking officials travel to Ukraine to announce a €1 billion support package. This makes less than no sense.

In summary: Although we heard a lot of words and read a lot of announcements since JD Vance attacked Europe in Munich, there are no troops, almost no weapons, no frozen assets, no air defence, no crippling sanctions, no accession, new tariffs, and no Taurus.

So what is actually going on? I am concerned that the answer is “nothing”.

Or maybe it’s even worse than that. Maybe that is the plan. Maybe nobody is “willing” to do anything more than talk about being willing.

More at the link.

Anyone check to see if Jake Sullivan is advising these folks?

Depressing yet accurate summation of European impotence on enforcing their red line, which turned a hue of pink. Enormously frustrating.

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— Marc Polymeropoulos (@mpolymer1.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:37 AM

Back to Ukraine:

I’ve been reading about the planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner of war exchange between Ukraine and Russia.

It’s striking that three categories are involved: civilians, soldiers—and CHILDREN.

Once again, Russia has stolen Ukrainian children to fully treat them as hostages.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Ukrainian children must be returned home. And must not be used as hostages.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Ukraine’s nightly reality: More than half of the country on alert due to a wave of Russian/Iranian Shahed flying bomb drones sweeping across the country. This happens practically every night now – but it doesn’t hit the headlines unless there’s a particularly horrific atrocity.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:18 PM

Seven Russian kamikaze drones intercepted just by a single anti-drone unit during three days.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 6:14 AM

Donetsk Oblast:

A Russian soldier on the Donetsk front tried to shoot down a Ukrainian drone from the 28th Brigade with his rifle — and ended up peppering his own ass with shrapnel instead.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 2:03 PM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

The “Black Swift” unit of Ukraine’s 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade took out a group of Russian forces in the Kursk direction. Seven Russian pioneers went into a basement — none came back out.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 17, 2025 at 11:06 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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