(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Air raid alerts for drone swarms are up for almost all of Ukraine at 2:15 AM local time in Ukraine/7:15 PM EDT. Russia is continuing to just strike Ukrainian civilian targets day and night. This has been an ongoing series of strikes going back a few months that have not had any of the breaks that past tranches have had.
There were 8 explosions in Kharkiv just now, at around 3 in the morning. Russian drones attacked a peaceful sleeping city yet again. Hope it’s over for now.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 30, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Over 100 Russian drones are over Ukraine right now. Some are approaching Kharkiv ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Some of this may be because of what we’re now seeing reported, which is that Putin has remade the Russian economy into an economy solely focused on war.
Putin doesn’t want peace. Russia cannot afford peace.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 11:53 AM
From The Wall Street Journal: (emphasis mine)
Russia’s successes on the front lines in Ukraine are a big reason why Vladimir Putin isn’t yet ready to sign up to President Trump’s peace efforts. Some of his neighbors fear the success of the war machine now driving its economy means he never will.
In the early stages of the war, the Russian president put the country on a footing for a long conflict. Putin retooled the economy to churn out record numbers of tanks and howitzers, while using sizable signing bonuses of up to a year’s salary to raise a massive army. At one point, more than a thousand recruits were signing up each day to fight.
This increase saved Moscow from the initial losses it suffered after failing to quickly capture Kyiv three years ago. Now it is helping Russian forces advance westward again, taking more than 100 square miles in the past month. The gains have given Putin the latitude to slow walk peace negotiations and shrug off direct talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, despite growing European pressure and Trump’s own exasperation with the lack of progress in ending the war.
But if or when Putin is ready to make peace, unwinding his military buildup could prove a trickier task.
“It is absolutely imperative for Russia to continue to rely on the military industry, because it [has] become the driver of economic growth,” said Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “For a while, it will be next to impossible for Russia to reduce military spending.”
Russia’s arms industry has enjoyed billions of dollars in stimulus in recent years to boost production lines and keep them running at breakneck speed 24 hours a day. The influx of cash has boosted wages—partly to compete with military payouts—and fueled rising living standards for thousands of Russians in the country’s poorer backwaters.
If the war does end in Ukraine, some of Russia’s neighbors worry its war economy might be refocused on them.
In the Baltics, Estonian military planners grimly discuss the possibility of war spilling into NATO territory. In Kazakhstan, analysts carefully watch for signals that Russia could make a move into the north of the country, where a large ethnic Russian population still lives.
These fears stem partly from the belief that the Kremlin would rather keep the tens of thousands soldiers fighting on some other front line rather than bring battle-hardened and often traumatized men back home. After the end of World War II, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin viewed returning veterans as a threat and sent many to the gulags to rid himself of the domestic pressures they could cause.
Today, peace would likely see many of the hundreds of thousands of troops in Ukraine, particularly those who signed short-term contracts, demobilized and sent back to civilian life at a time of slowing economic and wage growth.
“It’s not going to be a good idea to cut those wages radically or in a very short time,” said Volodymyr Ishchenko, of the Free University of Berlin. “It’s not a good idea for the state to disappoint armed men.”
If the fighting in Ukraine ends, Russia’s military will still need men. The arms industry will still be building the guns and vehicles needed to replace the Soviet stockpiles lost on the front line, but at a slower pace than during the war. Job losses on factory lines, together with an increasingly stagnating economy, could stir some discontent among those who saw the war bring the biggest redistribution of wealth since the fall of the Soviet Union.
“Without an existential crisis like the war in Ukraine, it would be hard to justify continuing to pour money into the defense industry at the rate we already are,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “And Putin—even if they say he is an evil totalitarian—he is very sensitive about what people think and what they want.”
Already there are signs that the boost from the war and a surge in wages and living standards is beginning to level out. The declining price of oil adds another note of uncertainty for the future.
Much more at the link.
Do you know whose arms industry has NOT enjoyed billions of dollars in stimulus in recent years to boost production lines and keep them running at breakneck speed 24 hours a day to meet this threat? I bet you can’t guess?
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine Will Not Simply Wait for Russia to Mature Enough to End the War – Address by the President
31 May 2025 – 20:30
I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians,
We are now preparing for new diplomatic steps together with our partners in Europe and, importantly, with our partners in the United States. In fact, we are in contact almost daily with everyone who can make diplomacy meaningful.
As of now, there is no clear information about what exactly the Russians plan to bring to Istanbul. We don’t have it, Türkiye doesn’t have it, the United States doesn’t have it either, and neither do other partners. And at this point, it looks far from serious.
We discussed this yesterday with President Erdoğan of Türkiye. Of course, everyone in the world wants diplomacy to work and for an actual ceasefire to take place. Everyone wants Russia to stop playing games with diplomacy and end the war. Everyone wants a serious peace — and Russia must agree to that. That should be the agenda of the meetings. We have already presented our agenda.
We hope the American side will be decisive on the issue of sanctions to help bring peace closer. For now, however, we are only seeing new Russian strikes and new Russian assaults.
Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report. The situation at the front remains complicated — in some directions, we are detecting increased Russian activity. The fiercest battles are taking place in the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions.
We are also continuing our Kursk operation, which prevents a significant number of Russian troops from operating on Ukrainian territory. The war must be pushed back onto Russian territory — back to where it came from.
I want to thank our warriors today for their resilience, and I want to thank everyone for their precision. Looking at this week’s results, I will give special recognition primarily to the assault regiments operating in the Kursk region. These are the 33rd, 225th, and 425th Separate Assault Regiments. Also among the best in this direction is the 103rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. Thank you! In the Pokrovsk direction, the warriors of the 1st Assault Regiment are performing especially effectively, and in the Toretsk direction, the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade has achieved good results. Well done! And of course, the 82nd Bukovynska Separate Air Assault Brigade. Thank you, guys!
We are working very actively to guarantee that our Defense Forces are fully equipped with everything they need. Weapons — both production and supplies, financial support, training — for every need, we are developing new agreements with our partners.
Special thanks this week to Sweden: we are making active progress within the announced aid packages. Germany: we have very good agreements on investment in our Ukrainian weapons production. The Netherlands is working on supplying F-16s. The United Kingdom is directing proceeds from frozen Russian assets specifically for weapons and equipment repairs for Ukraine. Altogether, this amounts to billions of dollars strengthening the defense of our state and strengthening our people.
Next week, we are preparing agreements with the Baltic and Nordic countries. We are also filling out the agendas for our summits — the G7 and NATO summits, which will take place soon. We are also actively engaging with everyone who can toughen sanctions against Russia and who supports such very important decisions. Ukraine will not simply wait for Russia to mature enough to end the war. We are doing everything to ensure that Russia is effectively forced into peace. I thank everyone who is helping us! I am proud of our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
First Lady Zelenska addressed the Superhumans Reunion ’25 festival.
Olena Zelenska: It Is Vital That After Any Injury, People Find Their Place in Society, in a Profession, in Life
31 May 2025 – 19:35
The First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, addressed participants of Superhumans Reunion’25 – a festival that brings together a community of veterans, their families, and all those who care about the reintegration and recovery of people affected by war injuries.
Overall, the festival, organized by the Superhumans Center, gathered more than 600 veterans and their families, over 60 partners, government officials, foreign ambassadors, and Ukrainian artists.
“When Superhumans was launched two years ago, we interpreted its name like this: Ukrainians are not victims, but superheroes. What unites us is not trauma but overcoming it together. This ‘super’ prefix is not some formal honorary title – it is born of teamwork, resilience, and the commitment of everyone involved to fight. I thank everyone who is working to give our people back their opportunities,” said Olena Zelenska.
The First Lady called on government officials and businesses to support graduates of the Superhumans Center in finding their place in life. In particular, it is important that the Ministry of Economy assist graduates with employment, a key need expressed by veterans. The Ministry of Veterans Affairs is responsible for integrating them into life, from sports to solving any social issues.
“Meanwhile, the graduates of Superhumans themselves often ask: ‘How can we help our country?’ I’ll take the liberty of answering. Dear Superhumans, above all, we want to see you feeling well and thriving in whatever it is you wish for yourselves. And your example, your resilience, even just your smiles already help, right now,” the First Lady emphasized.
Georgia:
Pikachu in Tbilisi.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 185— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Day 185 of #GeorgiaProtests
I am so sad I couldn’t be there today to see Pikachu.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 4:13 PM
My child is a prisoner of the regime” — Parents and family members of prisoners of conscience held a protest in the Tbilisi metro today.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Poland:
Poland is actively creating a defense line on the border with Russia near Kaliningrad.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 5:17 AM
The US:
With all due respect to the General, returning these children is impossible if we can’t even name their abductors. Russia will not willingly return anyone, nor will it concede a single inch. The only path forward is sustained pressure.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Trump said he “doesn’t know yet” whether he will support the bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia.
Earlier, Senator Graham stated that the U.S. would hit very hard if Russia does not show a willingness for peace.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 6:34 AM
The UN:
“No new sanctions, arms supplies to Ukraine, or any other hostile actions against Russia will be able to prevent the inevitable military defeat of the ‘Zelensky regime’.” – Nebenzya.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Back to Ukraine.
The cost and the reason:
A moment worth fighting for: after 17 months in russian captivity, Ukrainian soldier Dmytro embraces his little son for the first time. When asked what kept him going all that time, he gave a simple answer: ‘My son.’
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Ukrainian drones and missiles now cover the vast majority, likely 80–90%, of relevant Russian targets. Systems like Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and Taurus are primarily needed for heavily hardened or buried sites.
1/3
— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 28, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Taurus is uniquely suited for destroying targets like the Kerch Bridge, given its high-yield penetrating warhead and programmable fuse.
At this stage, the Taurus debate is driven more by politics than military necessity, and delivery has become more important for Germany than Ukraine.
2/3
— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 28, 2025 at 9:57 AM
That’s because Taurus has come to symbolize German reluctance and escalation angst. The Chancellor must correct that perception. If Berlin ultimately withholds the missile, it will need to offer something of equal political weight.
3/3
— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 28, 2025 at 9:57 AM
#SLD25 panel on defence innovation w/ defence chiefs from Germany & India, Ukr dep def min & Indopacom cdr. German chief: innovation cycles in war now short as 15 days. “There is no rear area any more.” AI “key to integrate data across all domains. “Both high & low tech needed”
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 5:06 AM
Ukrainian dep def minister says his country producing 10m drones per year. Drones do 80% of damage in battlefield he says. Ukrainian made FPV IS $500, he says, in contrast to $1,500 for foreign models. Low-cost interceptor drones at $5,000 “affordable alternative” to traditional SAMs.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Interesting to hear a Ukrainian official state the theory of victory simply & explicitly.
Ukrainian deputy defence minister: “This is a war of technology: whoever has the bigger amount and the faster scaling solution will win”
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 5:52 AM
📊 May 2025 Combat Report Shared by the “Birds of Magyar” Unit
Total for May 2025:
• 2,221 Russian KIA/WIA ; +23% increase vs April (+417)🎯 Unit’s Goal:
• 100 Russian KIA/WIA per day
• 3,000/montht.me/robert_magya…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 12:58 PM
✨Ukrainian Mi-24 launching Hydra 70 rockets t.me/utac_team/121
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 9:24 AM
💥HIMARS strike on the Russian TOR-M2 air defence system by the “Black Forest” Brigade
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 8:51 AM
People went into the forest to pick mushrooms — and ended up finding “location-lost” drones.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Kharkiv:
Holy molly, that was loud, and I couldn’t hear it’s coming. Damned Russian drone!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Seven civilians were injured in a russian arial attack on the suburb of Kharkiv
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Kharkiv Oblast:
Injured in Russian attack on Kharkiv suburbs this morning.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Russia murdered a 9-year-old girl and injured a 16-year-old boy in the Zaporizhzhia region today. Bastards.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Krasnagorsk, Moscow Oblast:
A massive fire has broken out just 10 kilometers from Putin’s residence.
In Krasnogorsk, near Moscow, the “Ltd Kolesnic” factory, which produces galoshes and rubber footwear, is engulfed in flames. Eyewitnesses report that smoke pillars can be seen from various districts of Moscow itself.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Volgograd Oblast, Russia:
Russians have opened the largest military training camp for children in Volgograd, Russia.
Several hundred children aged 14 to 17 are being taught to kill Ukrainians and Europeans. One third of them are children from the occupied territories of Ukraine.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 31, 2025 at 5:44 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
❤️🩹🐈 In the village of Marlakhivka in the Kyiv region, rescuers pulled four cats from the rubble following a Russian attack on May 25
📸: Eugene Kibets, Kyiv Animal Rescue Group
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@english.nv.ua) May 29, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Open thread!
rekoob
Adam, in a recent Open Thread, someone commented that your postings seem to be of interest to a small number of Jackals, given the few comments your daily reports attract.
I believe nothing could be further from the truth — I value your bearing witness to the strife and informing the rest of us. Thank you again for all your time and efforts.
As many have said, yours is an important chronicle of this moment in history.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
lowtechcyclist
WSJ:
IANA economist, but this makes no sense to me. What are the economic benefits of all this military production?
1) Gains of Ukrainian territory.
It’s hard for me to see that Russia can put those gains to use that produce nontrivial economic benefits for Russia. So that’s a zero, AFAICT.
2) High wages for workers in factories that produce the military equipment, which they spend, with the usual multiplier effect as it works its way through the economy. Well sure, but that would work if you paid people the same total quantity of money for anything or nothing. For digging holes and filling them back up again. Just make sure it’s widely distributed so it gets widely spent in Russia, rather than giving it to a few oligarchs who will sock it away in overseas bank accounts.
3) The money spent by the factories for services, parts, etc.
Same deal as (2). Just spend the money somewhere.
Now if Putin was selling arms to other nations like Iran or NK, then that would be bringing in some money. But last I checked, Putin was buying arms from Iran, rather than selling arms to Iran. And NK is a very poor country with limited resources to buy anything from anyone.
What it comes down to is that war rarely produces tangible economic rewards. In more democratic countries, military spending in time of war justifies a level of government spending that would otherwise fail to get through the legislature, and that stimulates the economy in ways that otherwise wouldn’t happen because the spending itself wouldn’t happen. But if Putin can spend a billion rubles on war, presumably he can spend the same billion rubles on something else instead.
So this WSJ piece makes no sense to me.
Jay
Thank you , Adam.
Jay
@lowtechcyclist:
ruZZia has “built” a War Economy. They “won’t” shut it down. They could, but they won’t.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1928723647495131562#m
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@rekoob: Since I don’t read any other posts on the site, because it has been made abundantly clear to me that I’m not welcome to comment in them and had Cole not made me promise to keep doing these updates, I’m not welcome on this site, I would never have known of the comments had you not written this. It is what it is. I expect that at least one front pager has pitched that exact sentiment to Cole to try to get rid of these updates and me as my presence here harshes their hopium induced mellow.
That said, thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome too.
lowtechcyclist
@Jay:
OK, but the article says ‘can’t’, not ‘won’t.’ At least, “next to impossible for Russia to reduce military spending” sure comes across as ‘can’t’ to me.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: He didn’t have to attend a RUSI symposium to get all that. All he needed to do was read these updates every night.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Yeah, but then he wouldn’t have gotten the per diem, paid flights, paid hotel room.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
He didn’t need to read nearly 1,200 nightly updates to get all that, all he had to do was attend a RUSI symposium. ;-)
Chetan Murthy
@rekoob: I second this comment. I don’t comment, b/c what is there to say? But I read every one of these posts, Adam. Every. One. Thank you for keeping me and us educated and aware of this ongoing calamity.
Chetan Murthy
This should be the most troubling bit for NATO (from a purely self-interested POV). If for no other reason, NATO MUST ensure Ukraine prevails, so that Ukraine can then arm/train the rest of NATO in this modern way of war.
Obviously there are moral reasons for wanting Ukraine to prevail, but they’re not necessary: it is -sufficient- that NATO is falling further and further behind Russia in these capabilities.
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman: The number of comments is not a reliable measure of reader interest- certainly if the blog has not indicated “comment or we will delete the front pager!”. I read your posts every day and share them with my social network (many of whom in turn share with their social network, etc.). You do more good than you could possibly know.
rekoob
@Adam L Silverman: Allow me to add a bit more nuance, if I may: in response to that comment, others suggested that you’re speaking to a limited audience, since most of the responses are from a small set of observers (including many on this posting).
Again, nothing could be further from the truth. Several additional folks noted that they read all of your posts, but just as David Anderson has observed, they prompt a response from Subject Matter Experts (or those who aspire to be) or those with specific inquiries, not necessarily those who want to speak to the awfulness of it all.
By the way, I came to know the CIA World Factbook when my father was doing the Army War College correspondence course as a Reservist O-5 (JAG) in the late 1970s. It was catnip for a teenager like me — Kilometers of paved roads! Number of airports! Transnational issues!
I still use the online version and recommend it to anyone who’d like a fairly comprehensive look at other countries.
I have a soft spot for Carlisle. After my father died, my mother, my younger brother, and I took a detour on our return trip from Boston to Richmond to spend the night there.
Gloria DryGarden
@rekoob: number of comments not equal to number of silent readers. Nor is it equal to the value.
it is good, although painful, to get the breadth and depth and awareness of international intricacies these updates give up. It’s super important. I read or skim this thread most nights.
I just don’t have much to say.
I picture a bunch of us silently at the edge of this circle of dark news, holding hats in hand, heads bowed, weeping silently, taking tiny hope in the successes, and having a flicker of joy in the animals rescued or serving. Hundreds of jackal lurkers, I would think.
I am sorry you were made unwelcome on the rest of the blog. It can really hurt.
Jay
@lowtechcyclist:
Buryat’s in Eastern Siberia are currently being offered a signing bonus of 138,000 rubles and a monthly salary of 46,000 rubles a month to join the Army, (when it’s not stolen by their Officers, etc). The signing bonus and just 1 months salary is what the average Buryat could earn in 250 years of full time work, pre-war and most Buryat’s, pre-war, worked part time seasonal jobs.
The war, over time, has caused a massive change in the entire structure of the ruZZian economy. Employers are having to jack salaries and benefits to get workers, or import them from 3rd World Countries, and keep them as slaves.
There are “War Widows” living lives now, like a pre-war multi-millionaire.
Ending the war would basically collapse the current ruZZian political and economic system. Basically the Fall of the Soviet Union 2.0. with 1.5 million armed, brutalized soldiers and war criminals coming home, with ruZZia unable to support the “Soldiers Benefits”, (preference for jobs, a car, a house, a pension). Moscow prefers they die, it’s much, much, much cheaper that way. Ideally their bodies are not recovered, so they are “missing”, and all payments stop.
ruZZia could transition to deal with the consequences, but not under the current form of “government”, and making the transition would result in losing the war in Ukraine, either quickly, or slowly.
Citizen Alan
@rekoob: Agreed.
Adam, I always read your posts. I just feel that, lacking any military or foreign policy background, I don’t know what I can contribute other than an expression of horror over this whole situation.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chetan Murthy: this is a really important point you’re bringing up. I had no idea of this.
can you talk WG into letting you write a guest post about this? Because holy cow.
Bill Arnold
@rekoob:
Another here. I don’t recall missing even one. (And self-censor comments here; assumed international audience.)
I’ve also seen mention of these posts in a few other venues.
Anyway, that “rubber” smoke plume is beautiful. (It looks like rubber smoke, but that might just be cover. :-)
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: what levers can we press, what policies and pressures could we enact, that would push things toward R losing the war to Ukraine, backing off entirely, and dealing with their internal mess?
The money and financial cost matters more than the lives, their citizens? It really sucks to be in a country where your government does not care about you, only wants your taxes and labor and children…to benefit the rich and powerful.
at this point, what if they collapse? Better that, than the continued harm all around the world that ruzzia has been doing.
maybe they could stop hacking into other countries’ politics, USA, UK, elections, brexit, etc, to overpower and gain benefits. A lot of countries have had their sovereignty threatened, their operations tampered with. It’s disturbing.
Gloria DryGarden
Just for data purposes, maybe everyone who sees and reads these updates, and who is also on blue sky, can go over to blue sky and click like ( it’s a heart, what can you do?) on adam’s linked posts.
Adam, you make a difference.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
The Baltic’s have really stepped up their drone game, in both manufacturing, deployment and use. They supply about half their production to Ukraine. It’s the cheap manufacture, the rapid innovation, the adaptation and changes in tactics that Ukraine manages that we can learn the most from. Germany has also stepped it up, codeveloping and funding with Ukraine. Canada has stepped up as well.
The US not so much, the US is still relying on air supremacy over the battlefield.
Gin & Tonic
Really unfortunate tendency on this blog for commenters to comment about not just the words but the perceived motivations of other commenters as if they were not also in the room.
My remarks about “Ukraine fatigue” are well-founded. A front-page posting about some obscure internecine Democratic party conflict will easily draw 300 comments, while Adam’s posts (which, as I have repeatedly stated, are yeoman’s work) average a dozen. And aside from these posts, the *only* time the war, or any ancillary topics re Ukraine, are mentioned in any other thread is when I post something. Yes, it is a topic which matters a great deal to me – definitely more than to the rest of you. But observing that engagement on the topic by the vast majority of B-J readers has declined is simply factual; and I used it largely as throat-clearing to post a very lengthy and thoughtful (IMO) piece that would otherwise have come to the attention of nobody.
Adam L Silverman
@Gloria DryGarden: That would be a bad idea.
Jay
@Gloria DryGarden:
Arming Ukraine to win.
Sanctions to strangle ruZZia and anyone who supplies them or buys from them,
The “West” still buys much more from ruZZia, (oil, gas, etc) than they provide in support to Ukraine.
IDK if ruZZia collapses, that’s their problem.
Adam L Silverman
@Gloria DryGarden: I appreciate the sentiment, but that’s not necessary. I leave the rest of the site alone and the rest of the site leaves me alone. And once Ukraine defeats Russia, I’m gone.
MagdaInBlack
@Chetan Murthy: Same. I read every Ukraine post.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
I only rarely post Ukraine “stuff” in other threads, because I have “bigfooted” Adam’s content several times.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
I only rarely post Ukraine “stuff” in other threads, because I have “bigfooted” Adam’s content several times.
WP strikes again.
Westyny
I read these posts every night, Adam. And I’m grateful for their breadth, balance and clarity.
Bex
Thanks Adam. I should say that more often, so thanks Adam!
rekoob
@Gin & Tonic: First of all, I am grateful for your timely and direct commentary on Ukraine. I get that it’s personal, and I appreciate that, but you’re also good at looking at the larger picture, which is a big part of our dear Dr. Silverman’s approach.
Our late night confabulations pondering foreign policy/strategy/tactics allows us collectively to air grievances/possible solutions. It may not move the ball forward, I suppose, but I’m glad we have it.
I’m a University of Chicago grad — John Mearsheimer (exactly 14 years my senior) has a lot to explain. (I did not study with him — merely noting for the record that such people exist.)
Chetan Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: I’m definitely not an expert, and definitely don’t know enough to write a post. I’m just relating what I’ve seen in the many, many articles I’ve read and videos I’ve watched. It seems clear that NATO is unprepared in multiple ways:
(1) as has been reported many times, RU simply has a greater production capacity for shells
(2) drones have replaced much of close air support, and NATO simply hasn’t got much
(3) quantity in drones is its own quality
(4) RU has EW down to the unit level
All this is well-documented. There’s been a longstanding NATO (and US) doctrine that “quality will beat quantity” and that seems to be shown to be false in Ukraine. Quantity matters too.
Again, I’m just a layperson, and I just read things here-and-there.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Stepping back a little from Ukraine, Adam’s content about the ongoing fight for democracy in Georgia is another entire area of education for us.
Gloria DryGarden
@Adam L Silverman: im naive here, and poorly informed. I defer to the better informed folks here.
Do you mean, bad idea to write about nato capabilities and wonder if it’s enough? Something else I suggested that’s unwise?
rekoob
@rekoob: Upon reflection, I believe disquisition is a better way of putting it than confabulation.
Chetan Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: Or (c) asking Chet to write such a thing (since he knows little and knows it *grin*) or (d) asking for a FP post about such a thing.
bookworm1398
Russia may not care about casualties as people but the losses still matter in a practical sense. There are only so many people, new ones take years to grow, they already have a labor shortage and bringing in immigrants is causing social unrest in Russia too. There is a limit where they run out of people to fight even if it’s not clear what it is.
Chetan Murthy
@bookworm1398: I have read knowledgeable commentators saying that if RU prevails in Ukraine, they’ll use Ukraine’s population as cannon fodder for their next war of conquest.
ETA: I remember early in the war they had units from North Ossetia in Ukraine. And of course, there are the Chechen Tiktok militia.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chetan Murthy: thank you for this mini summary
@Adam L Silverman:
once Ukraine defeats Russia
be it so, be it soon
@rekoob:
I appreciate that we have a place to look at the larger picture and discuss international relations. It matters a great deal. In national elections it’s one of my top 2 most important factors when looking at candidates.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
it’s (e), don’t swamp Adam’s BlueSky with hearts.
Randal Sexton
I read and appreciate these updates very much. Thanks for the hard work and consistency in doing them.
Adam L Silverman
@Gloria DryGarden: It is unwise to involve other front pagers in these issues. I can put up a guest post if it is appropriate.
Gin & Tonic
@Gloria DryGarden: It was something else.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chetan Murthy: your #36 comment gives me a condensed Ted talk, encapsulated. It’s good enough for me. The military and foreign policy experts may have lots to add; it’s good to have one’s eyes open.
Gloria DryGarden
@Adam L Silverman:
@Gin & Tonic:
thanks for clarifying. I kind of knew, from a few tiny happenings. Yeah.
Sometimes I have erred on the side of naive blind trust; working on the balance.
Chetan Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: There’s another thing too:
(1) do you remember Excalibur shells?
(2) how about the GLSDB ?
(3) how about when we started learning that M1 tanks were pretty vulnerable to drone-delivered munitions?
These systems started off being effective, but RU learned how to counter them. Just as they learned how to counter radio-controlled battlefield drones (so now both sides have switched to fiber-optic-guided). Both sides are innovating furiously in military tech. NATO isn’t innovating like that. Sure, they’re working. But not like UA and RU are. I remember articles talking about how UA soldiers would go to training camps in NATO countries, and be surprised at how rudimentary the training was.
Again, I’m a -layman-. Maybe what I read is all wrong. But it sure gives off the odor of NATO being unprepared for a RU onslaught.
Adam L Silverman
All of you are most welcome. I appreciate the sentiments, but the larger context is not about me feeling appreciated or how many comment. I know many more people read the updates than comment. And I know these updates are themselves hard to read.
The larger context is what it’s been for years: what the blog became/was changed into after the rebuild is not a place i fit, nor belong. I had intended to stop when the rebuilt site came online, but was talked out of it. Then i was going to stop a few years later, and Cheryl left and I didn’t want to leave Cole without a natsec SME. And then i was going to leave and Russia re-invaded Ukraine. I will be here, barring events behind anyone’s control, until the war ends. But i will never write another post here other than these updates.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: The real problem with the M1s is they’re too big for the bridges in Europe. Which means that alternate methods would have to be used to move them across European waterways.
pieceofpeace
I appreciate being informed most nights about the various facets of this deplorable war in Ukraine by Adam, even though the reading can be a tough go.
I find it to be strangely humanizing on a broad scale .and relatable while also being foreign, undesirable. And seldom do I comment.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: lol
btw, when I went over there to drop a heart- oh well- I noticed Adam reposts a bunch of cool content. Angles and bits not seen as much in the main feeds. Useful discovery, uplifting even.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, I cannot pretend to know what happened behind the scenes, but I felt compelled to add that your series _The Maskirovka Slips_ was a masterful seminar that taught me (and probably lots of us) about what was really at stake for our country, in the elections, and in the struggle in our domestic politics.
All that was before RU’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and yes, it will be shame when you are able to stop (b/c Ukraine wins, which will be a relief).
I cite that series of posts to people who want to understand what RU has been doing to our country.
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy:
I have a hard time envisioning exactly what “prevails” entails. Tymofiy Mylovanov had an interesting Twitter thread today, quoting or paraphrasing a David Ignatius WaPo column. I no longer read the WaPo, so I don’t know if these are Ignatius’ words or Mylovanov’s, but he wrote “Russia made Ukraine its most committed enemy.” Before 2014, one could have envisioned a world in which russia and Ukraine had at least a semi-fraternal relationship. Even after 2014, one could imagine Ukraine ceding Crimea and russia staying out of the Donbas and things continuing on a fairly even keel. But now? The measures russia would have to undertake to subjugate the population, control the Western borders and all the rest in the face of 40 million people who hate them and everything they stand for would cripple their economy and military capacity. Even assuming russia could find some nominally Ukrainian puppet to replace Zelensky, they’d have to replace an entire government at the national, oblast and regional levels. How’s it go, “How ya gonna keep ’em down on the farm (after they’ve seen Paree?)” Ukrainians have tasted independence long enough that taking it away will be a hell of a lift. And by now, they absolutely fucking *hate* russians.
Sally
@Chetan Murthy: Not only their population, as they are in the occupied regions, but also their resources and manufacturing / technological capabilities. This is a most important point. Like Germany did in the second world war, by taking (then) Czechoslovakia, Germany gained a first rate military and weapons manufacturing, as well as primary resources. How far Germany would have succeeded without this early takeover, is a good question. Same for Russia. Gaining Ukrainian military, manufacturing, and primary resources would really alter the balance for Russia. As was having UA as part of the Soviet Union did in the Second World War.
I listen to a podcast called “Ukraine: The Latest”. It is excellent. I have heard their resident historian say there should be little to fear if Ru collapses politically, as the country has always turned in on itself when collapse has occurred. Most recently during the First World War, when the Bolsheviks took over, the country withdrew from the war, and the leadership concentrated on its own infighting. He maintains the same thing would happen, as the “winner” would be too busy consolidating power and fighting rivals to wage a foreign war.
To further Jay’s comment, I don’t think (and I am nobody, so … ) Ru can just turn around a ferociously corrupt, hierarchical regime on the end of war, like the US did after the Second World War. Just “spend these enormous amounts of money on something else” isn’t that easy when wealthy powerful and armed oligarchs are invested in their war time industries. And a million psychotic and armed men come home. There has always been disruption with homecoming troops at the end of major conflicts. This would be catastrophic. As was noted, the Ru government would prefer the troops die, rather than come home.
I also use both these posts and the podcast to hammer my political representatives relentlessly. No Ukraine fatigue chez sally!
Sorry this is too long.
Jay
@Sally:
No, it’s not too long.
Sally
@Gin & Tonic: The podcast “Ukraine: The Latest” runs a series once a fortnight (two weeks) with an expert on the resistance and insurgency in the occupied areas. These reports tally with what you are saying. No one is in the mood to give in. When the Russians overrun an area they are not benign rulers. They murder, rape, pillage, kidnap, and generally terrorise the local population. They are they poster child for how not to take over a country. Some people speak Russian, take Russian passports, and acquiesce in order to survive and save family members, but they hate the Russians. And risk their lives to kill them. There are so many stories in these reports, but one that sticks with me is the young women who “befriend” the Russian soldiers and poison them. So often that the soldiers are warned not to “fraternise” – Russian troops, ha, good luck with that!
I’ll just add, since I am writing way too much tonight. I don’t like to call them soldiers. I have military in my family. The Russians are not soldiers in any sense of the word. They are murders and criminals.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: agree. Not too long. Useful, and illuminating. Slipped in a little historical comment about USA, too. Saw that.
Sally
A propos Adadm’s piece from the WSJ, Ukraine: The Latest interviewed the Estonian Minister for Defence last week. He was very interesting and worth listening to. The Eastern Europeans are very clear eyed about the Russian threat. I wish Kaja Kallas had been voted to lead NATO at this time, instead of the squishier Mark Rutte. Rutte is ok, but not what we need right now
I suspect Rutte was chosen to placate trump. A man. But Kallas is blond and gorgeous (younger than third lady, very clever). Maybe she would’ve had her own advantages.
dr. luba
@Adam L Silverman: “And once Ukraine defeats Russia, I’m gone.”
Well, there’s still Georgia, but Ukraine winning would probably fix that, too.
BTW, add me to those who read ALL your posts……albeit quite late at night or sometimes the next day. No point in commenting then.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
Thank you, Adam, for these posts. I also appreciate the commenters who add their experience or who ask questions. I hope that if you leave you will let us know where you land should you continue to share your expertise and insights.
@Sally: Thank you for the info on that podcast. I will have to check it out.
Jay
@dr. luba:
Like Gin and Tonic, every time you comment, it is worth something.
Traveller
I appreciate Sally’s insightful analysis re WWII, Germany and Czechoslovakia…this is a major worry and concern of mine also…Russia gaining the Ukranian Army and the contry’s war making industrail capacity and base.
Yes, the Baltic’s are a major worry also, but Moldova is so vulnerable were Ukraine to have a Russian/Ukrainian installed government…and wither goes Moldova so probably goes Romania, 20 more millions of people…Europe’s Southern Flank is far from secure and may be a preferred target to Estonia, etc.
Lastly, I kind of miss Carlos’ commentary…I hope he is well.
I kind of understand many people up thread saying that they are novices or not experts in Foreign Policy…I disagree, if you read Dr Silverman with some frequency, you are well versed in…all kinds of things…to include grace. (it would not be wise, in my opinion, to respond in any fashion whatsoever to possible uninformed criticism from elsewhere on BJ…and this is just saying Adam is much more peace oriented than I am…lol) Best Wishes, to Everyone…Have a happy summer. Traveller
pluky
I read all these posts, but almost never comment on them as I don’t feel I have the expertise to add anything of value.
lowtechcyclist
@Jay:
Your argument amounts to: if Russia opted to stop fighting, somehow the money that they’re paying people to fight, or paying war widows, would stop existing; that it only exists as long as they continue fighting, so when they stop fighting, they can’t continue to pay people like they are now.
That not only doesn’t make sense, it’s practically magical thinking.
Gin & Tonic
Gin & Tonic
Some more on my thoughts at #56, but by a better writer than I am:
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: It sounds like these drones were launched from within Russian territory. An audacious operation if so.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: Yes. Drone swarms launched from trucks, thousands of km inside russia. Audacious and impressive.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: Ukrainian Twitter is having a field day.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: Ankara-based Clash Report has plenty of videos of and about this operation. One showed a truck that launched drones; in the background you can see smoke rising from the airport.
Traveller
Here is a great posing of many of the wonderful explosions all across Russia this morning. Also they have several of the trucks and vans used to transport all these drones 1,000km or more before launching.
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/06/major-ukrainian-drone-attack-in-russia
Audacious and peace talks were to resume in Turkey tomorrow…lol…there will be plenty to talk about.
Best Wishes, Traveller
Sally
I emphasise again that I am a know nothing commenter on a blog. That said, IMHO, a significant amount of the money that is currently being spent on “the war” would, if the war stopped, abruptly return to going into the pockets of the oligarchs. It is true that most of it doesn’t disappear. But on the same point, it was there before the war and was not spent on the well being of the people, but siphoned off to the glamorous estates, yachts, Swiss bank accounts, and mistresses of the oligarchs. “Soldiers” would not be paid their high wages, and widows would no longer need to be placated. Factory owners could no longer be ripping off huge profits on military equipment, and higher wages could drop back. Factories don’t suddenly start making cars, washing machines, refrigerators and toilets. It takes time and the desire to do it. These products could have been produced before the war had there been the market. Many Russians are too poor to buy much of this stuff. The round the clock shifts, and concomitant extra work force, would be discontinued. The factory change overs, in the cases where they would even occur, take time, leaving people unemployed.
The “soldiers” returning would be unlikely to want to return, at least straight away, to the poor rural homes and jobs they had before the war. Returning troops are also currently causing trouble in the regions, committing serious crimes. This would start to happen on a massive scale. Unemployment amongst returning troops is common after wars, even violence and riots, as in Wales after the First World War, where Churchill was infamously involved in the use of force against veterans. Then there is the support for all the disabled vets. Large scale demobilisation is expensive and dangerous. I think Putin has enough problems without this.
Citizens can be persuaded to make sacrifices and suffer when at, what they are told is, an existential war. Deprivation was extensive in Britain and Western Europe in both world wars. Germans particularly suffered. Russians can be similarly persuaded to (continue to) suffer while they are at war. Were peace to break out, the degree of patience of 140 million people is up for grabs. Putin is scared of his oligarchs, scared of his citizens, like all dictators. No one is his friend, and he is smart enough to know that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: An incredible operation! & also points to glaring weaknesses in Putinist Russia’s internal security apparatus, & perhaps a lack of commitment/vigilence on the part of significant portions of the Russian population to the invasion of Ukraine, ultranationalist bravado in Russian MSM & social media notwithstanding.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic:
“We demand you do what you’ve been doing for three years!” seems like a lack of imagination on somebody’s part.
catfishncod
@lowtechcyclist: On its face, that is absurd. But a confluence of factors makes something very close to it true.
Thanks to sanctions, plus low oil prices, plus neglect of any real investment by profit-taking oligarchs… Russia’s non-war economy is idling at best, increasingly grinding the transmission.
The official prime rate at Russia’s central bank is 21%. Think about it: Russian banks have to pay credit-card level interest to get float money to loan. This means that the government and the oligarchs’ black market operations are the only spenders in the economy anymore; everyone else is priced out.
Even the oligarchs aren’t going to openly invest with rates like that, unless they also own the bank; this encourages vertical economic integration under oligarchs’ control — a step towards economic independence that Putin very much opposed. Hence my “grinding clutch” metaphor.
Even worse, the wartime spending has something the oligarch money doesn’t: high money velocity. GDP requires money to actually change hands, and poor people spend more of the money they receive than rich people do. Wartime spending is pushing money out to poor folks and keeping rubles actually moving around. [A similar effect broke the US’ post-Depression stagnation just before we entered WW2.]
The money doesn’t actually disappear if war spending ceases, but for the average Russian, it effectively disappears — just as the rationale to sacrifice for the Rodina also disappears. War with Ukraine, and then NATO, isn’t just Putin’s desire anymore; it’s the only way to prevent the next Russian revolution. Even with his ideological blinkers, Putin knows Russian history well enough to know that victory is his only chance for personal or regime survival. He’s bet the farm.
catfishncod
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat): I second this motion. Adam is one of the few reasons I still read this blog.
@Adam L Silverman: Your reports have been at least at high-grade Substack quality, and once this series is done, I hope you move to a format of that kind.
For instance, I’m going to be very very interested in your analysis of this morning’s news of remote drone assaults in Russia’s deep interior.
dr. luba
@Gin & Tonic: This is from one of my FB groups (tranlsated):
For the first time in world history, the main forces of strategic aviation, nuclear weapons carriers, were destroyed directly at their bases by a group strike of drones. This outstanding sabotage operation by the Security Service of Ukraine will go down in military history textbooks, as this defeat of Russia is one of the most costly in terms of consequences and losses, seriously reducing the number of the Russian Federation’s strategic nuclear forces.
At the moment, according to our sources, 41 strategic and military transport aircraft of the Russian Armed Forces have been destroyed at four bases. Some of the drones attacked with auto-targeting, and the results of their strikes will be determined using satellite images.
A group of SBU agents transported 150 small strike drones and 300 munitions into Russian territory.
116 drones took to the air.
The drones were controlled via Russian telecommunications networks, using auto-guidance.
Several mobile launch sites on Russian territory were located near Russian strategic aviation bases.
The drones attacked from a short distance during the day deep behind enemy lines. The air bases were covered by significant air defense forces — anti-aircraft missile systems, electronic warfare systems, and patrols with small arms. But the Russians were expecting nighttime strikes by heavy, large strike drones, which are easily visible in the air, and did not expect an attack by small quadcopters during the day.
The attack on the Tu-95 strategic missile carrier base at Olenya was particularly successful, with the drones accurately hitting the fuel tanks and a significant number of aircraft burning to the ground.
An operation of this scale, with such a huge economic and military impact, and at such a high technological level, has no analogues in the world.
It is very important that the SBU agents returned to Ukraine safely. Ukraine did not suffer any losses.
Consequences:
Such achievements should be recognized with the highest state award. Can the heads of the SBU be awarded a second Hero of Ukraine title? The results are certainly worthy of it.
The heroes who directly carried out this historic task and returned victorious undoubtedly deserve the highest title.
NotoriousJRT
@Gloria DryGarden: This is a very late comment on this subject, but your summary describes my reaction. I am sorry I missed the comment under discussion, because I would have pushed back. Hi probably missed it because I read fewer and fewer posts here these days compared to my habits years ago. This post is my (mostly) daily must read or at least skim. One truth that has always been self-evident to me is quantity of comments does is NOT an indicator of quality. Mass comments often involves squabbling, troll feeding, and/or subject matter narcissism. Should all jackals start weighing in on post categories that hold absolutely no interest for them? I feel pretty disappointed to learn that this sort or clueless policing is being entertained here.
Bex
@dr. luba: Slava Ukraini!!
TerryC
@Adam L Silverman: thank you, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
Always a blast around here when people hop in to criticize comments they have not actually read.
Gloria DryGarden
@Gin & Tonic: best news in Weeks! Slava Ukraini!
I hope I spelled that right. I understand this operation was a year in planning and organizing. Hope they have more up their sleeves. So heartened.
way2blue
@Adam L Silverman: Please know that your generosity—offering your time & expertise—in compiling these nightly posts is irreplaceable. I look not only to your analysis of conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East & Georgia—but also your unsparing analysis of the state of our country. Thank you. We all get worn down by daily reminders of how inane war is—coupled with the idiocy of putting malignant narcissists in charge. But here we are.
Al Camous
@Chetan Murthy:
I third this sentiment. Adam’s updates are exemplary and have been helping me stay informed. I don’t comment much, but read every word. Thank you.