As could both be expected and was predicted, yesterday’s Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic aviation did not positively affect the Russian negotiators in Istanbul.
😵😵😵
— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Russia to Ukraine: “Shoot yourself in the head and turn the lights off as you go out.”
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:33 PM
As I’ve said many times, the only “peace” the Russian regime seeks is Ukraine’s lack of resistance to the destruction of the Ukrainian nation. As you can imagine, Ukraine has no interest in such “peace”. 2/2
— Anton Shekhovtsov (@shekhovtsov.substack.com) June 2, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Senior Ukraine official on peace talks to @financialtimes.com: No major breakthroughs, just “minor steps as we expected.”
Russians “just putting on a show of diplomacy for Trump.”
New POW exchange possible. Ukraine gave list of abducted Ukrainian children it wants ASAP.
www.ft.com/content/6fc8…— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) June 2, 2025 at 10:12 AM
From The Financial Times:
Ukraine and Russia remain far apart on terms for a lasting ceasefire after a second round of peace talks in Istanbul on Monday where Moscow laid down stringent demands to end its three-year invasion.
After negotiations at the Çırağan Palace on the Bosphorus, Kyiv’s and Moscow’s delegations said they had agreed to swap all seriously wounded and sick prisoners, as well as prisoners of war under 25, in what Russia described as the largest such exchange during the conflict.
But the countries’ conditions for peace remained a chasm apart. Moscow insisted on terms that would all but hand it control of Kyiv, while dismissing Ukraine’s demands for an immediate ceasefire and greater US involvement in the talks.
The negotiations, which lasted for just over an hour, were the second round of talks brokered by Turkey and the US after the peace process resumed last month for the first time since early in the conflict.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the meeting was “great” and added he would move to organise a summit involving Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin and presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine and the US’s Donald Trump. Zelenskyy later on Monday said he and Erdoğan had discussed holding the possible meeting in late June or early July in Turkey.
Even if the four leaders did meet, however, Zelenskyy said it would not result in a lengthy ceasefire because Putin was not ready to end the war.
The Russian memorandum “appears to contain ultimatums rather than serious proposals”, he said.
Russia offered a limited two to three-day ceasefire in a few select locations along the 1,000km front line to recover the bodies of fallen soldiers, Zelenskyy said. But he dismissed this as a ploy to show Trump that Putin was engaged in the peace process, calling it an attempt to ease sanctions rather than a genuine move towards peace.
More at the link.
This is a good lead into the question that Geminid asked in last night’s comments:
Adam, I’m wondering if you’d care to comment on Turkiye’s role in tomorrow’s talks. I saw a picture of the May 16 talks in Hurriyet News that showed Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan presiding.* I expect he will again tomorrow.
Fidan was in Moscow last week, while his boss President Erdogan spoke with President Zelensky by phone. So the Turks has been active in preparations at least.
And some time if you’d care to give your appraisal of Turkiye’s strategic goals regarding this war, I’d appreciate that also as I appreciate all your posts and comments.
Erdogan has long been trying to position Turkiye, with himself as its leader, as the protector of the different ethnic Turk communities in Asia Minor and Central Asia, as well as a protector of (Sunni) Muslims in general. This was one of the follow on effects of the EU creating so many hurdles for Turkiye’s ascension that it amounted to a rejection. I think the interest is a result of Turkiye’s historic relationship with Ukraine’s Muslims. As for his strategic goals, I think he would like to offset his reputation as a soft authoritarian who has transformed Turkiye into an illiberal managed democracy with that of being a peacemaker. And one who has helped to end a major interstate war in Europe when the EU, which rejected Turkiye, couldn’t.
Here’s Russia’s actual demands:
No surprise here: The Kremlin has constantly intoned the mantra that the “root causes” of the conflict have to be resolved.
The “root causes” are Ukraine’s existence as a fully sovereign, independent state. Moscow wants to turn democratic Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 1:43 PM
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 1:43 PM
President Zelenskyy had a very busy day. He attended the Bucharest Nine and Nordic Countries Summit. Video of his address below, transcript after the jump.
Statement by the President of Ukraine Following the Bucharest Nine and Nordic Countries Summit
2 June 2025 – 17:50
Gitanas, Mr. President!
It’s important to be here in Vilnius today!
Dear friends, partners!
We all want the same thing – to stop the Russian war, to bring real peace, and to make security last. That’s what we’re all working for.
First, I informed our partners about the situation at the front. We also talked about our operation inside Russia, which has seriously weakened their military. Operation “Spiderweb” showed what modern war really looks like and why it’s so important to stay ahead with technology.
All our joint investments in drone production, all our shared battlefield experience, everything we’re doing together with our partners – it’s making Europe stronger. Today, we agreed with our partners on several joint decisions that will strengthen our defense even more. I thank everyone for your willingness to help. There will be new packages. There will be new investments in Ukraine’s weapons production – especially drones. Ukraine can produce much more, and we see partner investments as a way to give those partners priority access to restock their arsenals after this war.
Second, I thank you all for our shared view of what diplomacy needs in order to succeed.
Today, we see the situation clearly – if Russia turns the Istanbul meeting into an empty talk, there must be a new level of pressure – new sanctions, and not just from Europe. We need to work on joint sanctions at the G7 level – including with the United States – and with everyone in the world who wants peace. It’s very important that each of our partners supports this exact approach. Sanctions against Russia are necessary. It’s important to seriously limit Russia’s oil trade and its use of tankers. Sanctions, including secondary ones, tariffs, and price caps, can work and push Russia toward peace. Without pressure, Putin will just keep playing games with everyone who wants this war to end.
Talks in Istanbul just ended, and I’m waiting for Minister Umerov’s full report. They exchanged documents through the Turkish side, and we’re preparing a new release of prisoners of war.
Third – the upcoming NATO Summit can strengthen Europe’s security, or, if it sends the wrong signal, it will only encourage Putin.
The key to lasting peace is clear – the aggressor must not receive any reward for war. Putin must get nothing that would justify his aggression. Any reward would only show him that war pays off.
Geopolitical gains are just as important to Russia as money or territory. If Putin is allowed to decide who joins NATO, where NATO infrastructure can or can’t be, then Russia’s appetite for war will only grow. Our shared goal is the opposite – to completely end Russia’s hunger for aggression.
Ukraine is doing its part. I’m grateful to all partners who are doing theirs. And we must act as one united Euro-Atlantic community. The NATO Summit in June is the right place and the right time to send a clear message – Russia will not get anything from this war. Strong decisions are needed. Decisions for Europe, not for Putin. We all need to work together to make this really happen. And it’s doable.
Thank you to everyone who helps us. Thank you so much!
He also participated in a joint press conference with several other leaders who attended the summit.
But wait, there’s more!
He also did an online press conference regarding the day’s diplomatic efforts.
I’m worn out just copy and pasting all the YouTube links!
Georgia:
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 187📷 Giorgi Burjanadze
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The Georgian Dream now files lawsuit against independent TV channels Formula and TV Pirveli. They are to be prohibited from using terms: “illegitimate authorities,” “Russification,” “regime,” “state capture” and so on.
These are virtually the only two major democratic media.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 1:27 PM
1/ Georgian Dream is suing the critical television stations Formula and TV Pirveli in the Communications Commission for using critical language.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:38 PM
2/ According to Formula, Georgian Dream is suing the channel over terms that highlight the alleged illegitimacy and political bias of the Georgian Dream-led parliament, various officials, and institutions.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:38 PM
3/ These include phrases such as: “illegitimate parliament,” “so-called chairman of the parliament,” “oligarch’s deputy,” and “regime’s city court.”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:38 PM
4/ “Georgian Dream is suing Formula for referring to Bidzina Ivanishvili as an ‘oligarch’,” the channel reports.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:38 PM
5/ As for the complaint against TV Pirveli, lawyer Tornike Migineishvili says it claims that “TV Pirveli’s journalist should not have used terms like ‘regime’, ‘Russification’, ‘clan court’, etc.”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:38 PM
6/ “What will happen next?
1. Warning
2. 3. Fine
Broadcasting license issue — that is, being taken off the air”, – says the head of the news service of TV Piveli, Nodar Meladze.— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Russian-style dictatorship 101: it doesn’t care if you admit an offense and offer to make up for it, such as to pay for a material damage. It wants you in jail and will put you in jail regardless.
First final verdicts against protesters in Georgia.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 6:07 AM
Guram Khutashvili is 26 years old, and Daniel Mumladze is 23. This was their reaction to today’s verdict.
📷 Mindia Gabdze/Publika
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Judge Lali Mskhiladze had previously told protesters demonstrating against a banquet for corrupt judges that they “should all be arrested.”
📷 Mindia Gabdze/Publika
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 1:07 PM
The US:
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on the absence of the U.S. in Istanbul: it was a Russian demand that the American side not be present.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Back to Ukraine.
This is getting somewhat lost. The night before Ukraine’s drone raid, Russia conducted what was the largest drone attack on Ukraine in the war to date—and, I guess, ever—with 472 Shahed-type attack drones. Broke last week’s record by 100 drones.
kyivindependent.com/russia-shatt…— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 12:11 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russia launched a record number of drones at Ukraine in a mass overnight aerial attack, Ukraine’s Air Force reported the morning of June 1.
Russia attacked Ukraine during the night with 472 Shahed-type attack drones, breaking its previous record — set just last week on May 26 — by over 100 drones.
In addition to nearly 500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Moscow also targeted Ukraine with three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and four Kh-101, Iskander-K air and ground-based cruise missiles, the Air Force said.
Ukrainian air defense units shot down 210 drones, while another 172 were suppressed by electronic warfare, according to the Air Force. Russian drones were intercepted in 18 different locations across the country.
The record-shattering drone attack came on the eve of Ukraine’s “Operation Spider Web” — a major strike on Russia’s military airfields coordinated by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU). The operation hit 41 Russian bombers at four airfields, according to the SBU.
The attack, planned for over a year, involved smuggling first-person-view (FPV) drones deep into Russia. The operation caused approximately $7 billion in damages and disabled 34% of cruise missile carriers in key Russian air bases, the SBU reported.
Ukraine’s strike on Russia’s military aircraft follows some of Moscow’s heaviest aerial bombardments since the beginning of the full-scale war.
For three nights in a row from May 24-26, Russia barraged Ukraine with drones and missiles, launching a record 298 drones on May 25 only to break the record with 355 the following night.
The escalating attacks form the backdrop against which Ukrainian and Russian delegations prepare for their second round of direct peace talks, scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul. The Kremlin has claimed it will submit a memorandum outlining its ceasefire conditions during the meeting — though previous promises to present terms have been followed by weeks of delays.
The first round of talks, held May 16, failed to produce any significant breakthroughs towards a peace settlement.
Russia continues to reject calls for an unconditional ceasefire.
Today, Ukrainian intelligence launched 117 attack drones from trucks that had been placed near Russian air bases. I tasked several collects this morning via Umbra and my first images have already started processing. What a remarkable success in a well-executed operation.
— Chris Biggers (@csbiggers.bsky.social) June 1, 2025 at 7:56 PM
The revetted parking positions. (I know I’m terrible posting on here).
— Chris Biggers (@csbiggers.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Dyagilevo from today showed some possible burn scarring but no damaged aircraft. (Imagery: planet)
— Chris Biggers (@csbiggers.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 8:35 PM
🚀Ukrainian Su-27 of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade successfully engaged and destroyed a Russian surface-to-air missile system (SAM) using an HARM missile. The strike occurred while the aircraft was performing an escort role for a strike group. t.me/soniah_hub/1…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Kharkiv:
Russian drones in Kharkiv skies right now ‼️ air defense is working
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 7:47 PM
At dawn, russia launched a combined attack on Kharkiv, striking the city with drones and missiles. Homes were destroyed. One of the missiles struck a road, leaving a gaping crater and the phrase “thank God it wasn’t a house” hanging in the air. Six people were injured, including two children.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Homes in ruins in Kharkiv after russian drone strikes early this morning💔
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Two residents of Kivsharivka in Kharkiv region were killed in russian attack on the village around 4:30 PM.
A 64-year-old woman died at the scene, and a 62-year-old woman sustained severe injuries and could not be saved, according to the prosecutor’s office.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Kharkiv, following last night’s Russian drone attack on the city. Six people were injured, including a child. Homes and cars were damaged
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 7:15 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Interception of the Russian Molniya kamikaze drone with Soviet flag.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Irkutsk Oblast, Russia:
Irkutsk Oblast in Russia suffers massive traffic jams because they are checking all the trucks😂😂😂
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Russian films the burning remains of Russian Tu-95s and Tu-22s at the Belaya military airfield in the Irkutsk region
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 2:48 AM
View along the Russian air base Belaya, Irkutsk region. Showing multiple fires throughout the area. It looks like the northern part of the airbase (where Tu-160 were located) was less affected than the rest.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 12:24 AM
The Borisoglebsk military airfield, Russia:
Russian sources associated with military aviation report that Ukrainian jet drones targeted the Borisoglebsk military airfield last night, located 350 km from the frontline.
“Today a large number of jet UAVs attacked the airfield in Borisoglebsk. No equipment losses. Eternal memory to the killed.”
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 7:20 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns 6 годин сну – звучить не так вже і погано!😀 #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
6 hours of sleep – doesn’t sound so bad!😀#песпатрон
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
I really like that the Ukrainian side presented its position in writing to the negotiators and to the press in Ukrainian and English. The other side of course whined about this. The Ukrainians at the talks, who are all undoubtedly fluent in russian, also required a russian-Ukrainian interpreter.
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam!
Pro-Russian hacks have been going w/ the indignant posturing that Ukraine attacking one of the legs of Russia’s nuclear triad represents a “dangerous escalation” & thus Russia entitled to escalate to WMDs. Unfortunately, some of the otherwise serious “Realists” & “Restrainers” (whose views I would generally be sympathetic to) are amplifying the effect by concern trolling about “unnecessary escalation” toward potential thermonuclear war. They seem to have a blind spot wrt Putin’s nuclear blackmail in the form of nuclear saber-rattling.
They would have a point if Russian hadn’t been using its strategic aviation to lop cruise missiles at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure & purely civilian targets w/ complete disregard for civilian lives for 3+ years.
As it is, aviation has been the most weakest & most unreliable leg of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. The credibility of its deterrent rests primarily on the land based mobile ICBMs, followed by its modernizing SSBN fleet. Ukraine has not targeted these assets (& probably is not capable of targeting them). Furthermore, the SBU seems to have deliberately spared the most modern Tu-160s (probably the most useful assets in the Russian Air Force to deliver nuclear tipped missiles) at Belaya, while focusing on the Tu-95MSs & Tu-22M3s (far less useful for the nuclear role, but have seen plenty of use during off conventionally armed cruise missiles at Ukraine). To me, if my suspicion is correct, that is a sign of strategic prudence.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Lot of vatniks showing their ass in the last day and a half.
Bex
Didn’t JD Vance make some comment about childless cat ladies? Sounds like Medinsky’s “bleeding heart European old ladies with no children of their own.” These guys just want to go back to the 19th century. I don’t think even the 19th century wants them.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Some of the drones, did not launch. One entire truckload burned up before reaching the launch point.
Gin & Tonic
@Bex: Medinsky is a total asshole, always has been. In the words of Byron White, “no redeeming social value.”
different-church-lady
“…with no children of their own.” What is it with authoritarian assholes and the obsession with breeding?
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The drones were remote controlled, so the SBU operators could have chosen to prioritize the Tu-160s, rather than the Tu-95MSs.
Bex
Speaking of assholes, I think JD also said that childless women shouldn’t be allowed to vote.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Gloria DryGarden
So one side has been targeting civilians regularly, and the other side basically sticks to military targets.
Will this Imbalance be brought up at the talks? Are there potential repercussions?
It seems that European countries who would be next under threat have an interest in these peace talks. Why aren’t they invited? Why does Zelensky want USA at these talks?
I’m no student of war, but these questions are jumping out at me.
Really appreciate Zelensky’s talk transcript tonight.
And, as always, thanks Adam.
Jay
@different-church-lady:
It’s a “call back/shout out” to various ruZZian propaganda memes about “The Declining West” that play well with MAGgots, Vatnicks, Useful Idiots and other fellow travelers.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
They weren’t remote controlled. They were preprogrammed and used Machine Vision and ruZZian GLOSNAS and cell phone networks to locate themselves, launch and select targets. The same cell systems they used to geolocate, were used to send the FPV footage back to Ukraine.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Amusingly (for the easily amused, like me), in some Russian theologically-inclined arguments, Russia is the New Testament Restrainer, Paul/2 Thessalonians 2.
(A country where the state church blesses thermonuclear weapons is the Restrainer? Blessing Bombs, Putin’s Altar Boy, and Twisting Russian Orthodoxy to Sanctify Nuclear War – Why the Russian Orthodox Church is blessing nuclear weapons in a once-atheistic society (Cathleen Falsani, July 6, 2022))
Jay
@Gloria DryGarden:
No, and Yes.
Ukraine has realized that the so called “Peace Talks”, are just “draw it out” BS performances from ruZZia.
The “yes” part is the GUR has the names and for the next 20 years we’ll get to watch vid’s of ruZZians and their supporters, getting blown up in various ways.
Most of the EU is aware that these so called “Peace Talks” are just ruZZian BS. Ukraine want’s the US at these talks because maybe after ridiculous hours of having the ruZZians spout bullshit and not negotiate at all, lil”Marco, Kellogg and Witkoff, who are supposedly adults, will buy a clue.
Probably not, but at least they will be humiliated,
pieceofpeace
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Even if the drones were not remotely controlled the whole way, I find it hard to believe that the SBU did not exercise any control over targeting during the process. From the drone footages shared by Ukrainian sources, there is also no graphic indication, normally associated w/ both military grade smart munitions & civilian consumer drones (such as a box around the target), of fully automated computer vision to independently recognize & prosecute targets
The Pale Scot
@YY_Sima Qian:
I think they put the 160s at the back of the cue because they are hardest to maintain, and now the 160s have to pick up the slack wearing out the airframes even quicker, these crates ain’t Toyotas
Gloria DryGarden
@Bex: how about men who don’t pay child support…
oh, I have to bear a child to be a citizen? And what of the friends whose only child died? Or who had continuous miscarried other medical situations? What about women who are dying androgen insensitive? There’s no generalization that could work.
so insulting to women as member of society.
does he have daughters? Stay tuned…
sorry, folks, just realizing, this is the Ukraine kraine thread, perhaps not the best place to discuss this. Bex what if you reply to this in the other thread.
Parfigliano
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Listening to Rachel Maddow dissecting Operation Spiderweb tonight was such a pleasure. I hope that another such operation is planned, this time in Crimea.
Thank you Adam.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
I am going to take the GUR’s word on this.
If only for the ruZZian/NORK/Chinese buttclench.
Based on the released photo’s, there are still 8 “prefab shelters” out there.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: thx
( a row of non-permitted nature emojis, fish, and frogs, dolphins, rain. There is no set emoji for kindness, inclusion, sparkles on a river)
Jay
@Parfigliano:
Yes, you can humiliate them. Done it lots of times.
wjca
Not really needed in Crimea; it’s close enough not to require extraordinary tactics to strike.
More useful would be hitting the port in Vladivostok. And multiple sites along the east-west rail lines — preferably with munitions trains at the target locations. Make it hard for North Korean munitions to flow in large quantities.
But totally agree that a followup strike would be good. Probably after the Russians think they have successfully closed the barn door to confine the departed horse. Indeed, I’d be amazed if it is not already planned, and the strike force in place (not installed on trucks).
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The response on Chinese social media that I have seen has been pretty overwhelming respectful (in not celebratory) of the Ukrainian achievement, & derisive of Russian ineptitude. Of course, the commenters on military affairs on Chinese social media, which leans heavily toward the nationalist crowd, generally express confidence that the PLAAF would not be caught w/ its pants down in a war scenario. Certainly the industrial capacity is there to rapidly develop and implement solutions at a massive scale, & the PLA has shown itself to be a learning organization through its history (including incorporating the lessons from Ukraine in its training & tactics). However, no one can know for sure unless the shooting actually starts, which no one sane wishes for.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: IIRC, Ukraine had already struck the Trans-Siberian Railroad at one of the tunnels. However, it will take major sabotage operations to meaningfully damage bridges & tunnels. Otherwise railroads are easily repaired.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: I look forward to what may come of these 8 prefab shelters out there. Although, if they are visible in photos…
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
The “buttclench” is the audacity of the program.
A) smuggle or not the FPV drones into ruZZia.
B) reconfigure them or not.
C) smuggle in the warheads, or just buy them locally.
D) build some “microhouses” and hide the drones in the roof.
etc.
Tendar reports that pretty much all ruZZian truck shipping, is for functional purposes, shut down
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Yeah, the op is definitely one for the ages.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: oh gosh, consequences.
but they still have the railroad to transport supplies. How much will stopped trucking affect them?
the distances across ruzzia are even farther than going across North America coast to coast. It’s hard to fathom
Jay
@Gloria DryGarden:
Since 2022, 70% of internal ruZZian shipping has moved to trucks,
The ruZZian railroads are all federal.
The combination of a 22% hike and not enough rolling stock.
2 of the three bridge collapses, are currently attributed to corruption, and they are major supply lines for ruZZia’s invasion of Ukraine.
YY_Sima Qian
Tatarigami_UA thinking along the same lines:
Geminid
I think an important consideration for Turkiye is that Russian control of the north Black Sea coast would constitute a long-term strategic threat to Turkiye.
The Turkish Republic has maintained peaceful relations with the Soviet Union and then Russia throughout its 102 years, but the Ottoman Empire that preceded it fought wars with Russia for centuries. These culminated in the First World War.
Turkiye’s accession to NATO in 1952 was a natural response to that threat. Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine in 2014 was a wakeup call though. Sevastopol is a long way from Berlin and Paris and even farther from Washington, but it’s only 330 miles from Istanbul. Turkiye saw its NATO allies’ tepid response to Russia’s aggression and concluded they were on their own when it came to the Black Sea region.
That’s when Turkiye began to build its domestic arms industry. Turkiye used to get its frigates from the US and its submarines from Germany. Now they have 25 warships under construction in their own shipyards, including submarines and a second corvette for Ukraine. They built up their other domestic arms production as well, including the Baraktar drones that Ukraine first employed on the Donetsk-Luhansk front in 2021.
In early 2022, as Russia’s second invasion approached, Turkiye pushed badly needed armaments of its own manufacture to Ukraine. In the months following Turkiye shipped more weapons while France and Germsny dithered.
Stijn Mitzer wrote of this in a November, 2022 Oryx article; two key points: these shipments were not publicized, and Turkiye did not restrict use of these weapons to Ukrainian territory like other NATO nations did.
Turkiye had already been engaged with Russia in the Syrian Civil War. This was mostly by proxies, but a Russian air attack killed 25 Turkish soldiers in 2019. Syria is also where Turkiye encountered the Russian-Iranian alliance that Ukraine did 10 years later.
All this is to say, Turkiye’s interests in the war in Ukraine and in Ukraine’s survival run very deep.
Jay
@Geminid:
Yup.
Gloria DryGarden
@Geminid: thanks for adding in this dimension. it makes sense.
Although Turkiye is under a dictatorship and is Muslim, their land houses much unexplored and ongoing archeological richness, and the scenery looks so much like the steppes and mountains of Colorado. I visit Turkiye via YouTube, it echoes for me.
I had no idea that Russian ottoman relations were a big spark setting off wwI. There’s no telling what I might recall from history classes long ago, when I didn’t like learning about men their businesses, power interactions and wars. It’s still a dark and forbidding subject for me.
But I see I might like to find a decent short summary of the causes and players in some of these big wars. Including what really went on, not just the stuff we get told, fighting for freedom, etc.
if you recommend any particular sources for such a summary, I’d be glad. Short, though. I can pop in and out on YouTube’s, but it’s got to be coherent and get to the point. A Normie’s guide to WWI.. something like that. You study Turkiye and Syria, I barely know a thing.
Gloria DryGarden
@YY_Sima Qian: if you are in the mood for more little poems I have 4 or 5 more little ones over there, maybe you saw them, picked out the one you liked. Thanks for the wave.
And so grateful to read your angle on these war things here.
Gloria DryGarden
@Jay: ooh! Where was that one supposed to end up? Dang…
it doesn’t seem like Ukraine will be able to slip more Trojan horses in by the same route..
Geminid
@Gloria DryGarden:
@Gloria DryGarden: I wouldn’t say the Turkish-Russian conflict started the First World War, but once the Ottoman Empire entered on Germany’s side there was heavy fighting between the Ottomans and Russia throughout the war.
I wouldn’t say Turkiye is a dictatorship either. They have free elections but they’re not fair, mainly because Erdogan’s allies control of much of the media creates an uneven playing field. And generally, the Turkish Republic has never afforded its citizens the political rights we take for grated.
As for Syria, I follow events there mainly through Twitter and you might not use that platform. But there is a good Syrian news site, Levant 24 that posts a lot of interesting stories.
I usually talk about that Syria on other threads because events there only tangentially affect the war in Ukraine, especially now that Russian influence in Syria has been curtailed. The resolution of Syria’s civil war has given Turkiye more strategic latitude to focus on the war across the Black Sea, but what they will do with that remains to be seen.
Professor Bigfoot
@The Pale Scot: “Queue.”
You show cue cards to actors and you play billiards with a cue stick; but you line up in a queue (which is one vocalized letter followed by a bunch of silent ones ;) //pedant mode
I think you’re right, though; that’s the kind of long term and strategic thinking the Ukrainians are demonstrating. I just saw video of a LOOOONG line of OTR trucks stuck on the side of the road… it’s going to snarl their logistics even further, as well as fomenting more distrust among Russians (“is that guy a Ukrainian? What about that guy over there? THEY’RE EVERYWHERE!”) to which we can only say, “ha ha!”
The single most brilliant and effective covert operation of the 21st century (so far ;)
Professor Bigfoot
@Gloria DryGarden: Lately I’ve run across multiple white dudes complaining about “taxes.”
These guys don’t want to pay for a goddamn thing, that’s all.
Gin & Tonic
@Professor Bigfoot: And today the Kerch bridge. These guys are good.
Doug R
@The Pale Scot:
Don’t newer fancier jets require more downtime for maintenance and adjusting and replacing “fiddly bits”?
The Pale Scot
@Doug R:
Yep, and they never really worked out all of the bugs in the 160s going back to the 90s