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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 1,203: Unfortunately the Quiet Won’t Last

War for Ukraine Day 1,203: Unfortunately the Quiet Won’t Last

by Adam L Silverman|  June 11, 202510:04 pm| 18 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. A Ukrainian Soldier leads several Ukrainian civilians. He is holding the hand of one woman. They are painted in golden yello and are standing on the crest of a hill that has concertina wire and other anti-tank and anti-personnel obstacles on it. The hill and the obstacles are painted black. They are facing away and to the right where the sun is rising in the east and the sky is lightening from a light yellow to an orange. Below the Ukrainian Soldier and Ukrainian civilians, written in gold, is "TOGETHER YOU ARE THE LIGHT OF THE WORLD"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Right now, at 4:20 AM local time in Ukraine/9:20 PM EDT, things are quiet. The only air raid alerts up are for Sumy, Luhanks, and Donetsk Oblasts, and Russian occupied Crimea. The air raid alerts for Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea are always up 24/7/365. Unfortunately the quiet won’t last.

The cost:

A 65-year-old internally displaced man, Serhiy Kapranov, originally from Yenakiieve in the Donetsk region, was killed during Russian strikes last night. He relocated to Kharkiv in 2014

Russia ruined his life and then came back to kill him

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 7:24 AM

Why is the world silent about russians targeting Ukrainian rescuers? Today, the invaders attacked with a drone rescue workers clearing mines in the Kharkiv region. 37yo sapper Vasyl Belinskyi was killed, two of his colleagues were hospitalized. This is a war crime.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:01 PM

The bodies of 1,212 fallen defenders have been successfully returned to Ukraine.

The remains of Ukrainian soldiers were brought back from the Kursk region, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

Eternal glory and remembrance to all the fallen heroes.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 6:21 AM

President Zelenskyy addressed the Southeast Europe Summit today.

Prior to the start of the summit, President Zelensky and the other senior leaders in attendance honored Ukrainians killed in action at the Alley of Heroes in Taras Shevchenko Park.

🇺🇦 Odesa. Alley of Heroes. Together with the leaders participating in today’s Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit, we honored the memory of Ukraine’s fallen defenders- OVA.
Eternal honor to our heroes who defended Ukraine at the cost of their own lives.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 3:55 PM

Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Speech by the President at the Ukraine – Southeast Europe Summit

11 June 2025 – 19:12

Welcome everybody!

So, dear colleagues, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, I sincerely thank each of you for being here today in Odesa. And thank you that we started your visit to our summit from a very heroic place where we can see our heroic people and our patriots from Odesa. Thank you very much for this moment.

Odesa is a very important city for all of us and not just a symbol of southern Ukraine; it’s a crossroads between Northern and Southern Europe, between the Balkans and the Caucasus, and between European stability and the threats to undermine it. Odesa has always been a gateway and today stands as a gateway to our shared security.

The security of Southeastern Europe and the Black Sea is indivisible. And this has been obvious to Ukraine since 2014 and became clear to the entire continent in 2022. Yet, even today, we are compelled to fight not only for our country but to ensure this reality becomes the cornerstone of a new regional policy.

And I am pleased to welcome the following leaders here today in Odesa: Presidents of Moldova, Maia Sandu; Montenegro, Jakov Milatović; Romania, Nicușor Dan; Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić; Prime Ministers of Bulgaria, Rossen Jeliazkov; Croatia, Andrej Plenković; and the Hellenic Republic, Kyriakos Mitsotakis; and the Speaker of the Parliament of Albania, Elisa Spiropali; and First Deputy President of the Government and Minister of Environment and Physical Planning of North Macedonia, Izet Mexhiti; and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of Slovenia, Tanja Fajon.

Our today’s agenda will cover the following issues: regional security, resilience to hybrid threats, bolstering trade and transport networks, energy security, demining, post-war reconstruction, rehabilitation, health improvement, and support of military personnel, children and veterans.

Dear friends, dear leaders,

I’m glad to welcome you to our very beautiful city, to Odesa, again, and we continue our regular meetings with the countries of Southeastern Europe.

Sadly, our region is one of Russia’s main targets – main targets for causing chaos. We’ve seen this before – across the Balkans, where Russia fueled ethnic tensions, sabotage, and even coup attempts. We’ve witnessed attempts to manipulate public opinion in Romania, with Moscow’s involvement. And for three decades now, Russia has tried to keep Moldova in poverty and instability, to bring it fully under its control. If Europe loses in Moldova this year, it will embolden Russia to interfere even more in your countries – taking from you your resources, your sovereignty, even your history. That’s why supporting a European Moldova – not pro-Russian or oligarchic forces – is a critical task for all of us. And the same goes for Ukraine. Moscow doesn’t see Ukraine as a country, just as a pile of resources and a military staging ground for its next invasions. We all in the region are dealing with the same source of destruction.

Today, I suggest we focus – and especially I will focus –  on three things: defense, unity, and real development.

You can all see – Putin does not want to end this war. He believes that as long as he can fight and dominate his neighbors, he stays politically alive. But no matter what he believes, our job is to force Russia into a position where they must seek peace and political survival by non-military means. This is absolutely possible.

Defense support for Ukraine. We need it to protect our cities and villages from Russian attacks, and to make Russia feel the real cost of war at home. Air defense systems and drones are crucial. Another key tool is, of course, sanctions. Your support for joint EU sanctions decisions is vital. The EU announced its 18th sanctions package. It can be stronger, especially in targeting Russian oil tankers and its financial sector. And on the oil price cap – a cap of $45 is better than $60. Anyway, it’s understandable. It’s true. But real peace comes with a $30 cap – that’s the level that will truly change thinking in Moscow.

Next point.

We all share the same interest in EU enlargement and the strength of NATO. The EU gives Europe the power to compete globally. Without it, European nations could be overwhelmed by other big global players. That’s why we must support each other – those of you moving toward the EU, and Ukraine in its membership talks. This year, Ukraine needs a clear decision on the negotiating clusters. We’ve met every condition. Blocking progress now only wastes time for all of Europe. All our nations count and deserve fair enlargement. The same applies to NATO. Yes, Europe has to do more for its own defense. But everyone in the United States should remember – twice before, destabilization in Europe dragged American soldiers into devastating wars. That’s why it’s so important for America to stay engaged in European security. NATO holds the security structure of Europe together. And every European country has the right to choose its own security path. The upcoming NATO Summit must confirm that.

Just as the EU and NATO are essential, so is our cooperation in infrastructure. Transport routes, energy, communications, digital systems – we need to show people clear annual progress in all these areas.

Russia’s war and its blockade of Ukrainian ports showed us how vital alternative routes through neighboring countries are. We already have those alternatives thanks to you, of course, dear guests. And every country should have the same readiness for any crisis.

And finally, again, we’re here in our beautiful city, in Odesa. This beautiful city is a target for Russia. It wants to destroy it like it did countless cities and villages in occupied territories. Russian war plans point to this region – Odesa, and then toward the borders with Moldova and Romania. Of course, we need protection now. But even more, we need long-term guarantees that this can never happen again. That’s why I’m asking all of you to treat security guarantees after this war as a practical need. From air defense to cyber threats – we need real tools for deterrence and rapid response. Let’s look at our agreements, armies, and infrastructure – and strengthen everything that keeps our nations safe.

Thank you again for coming. Thank you very much.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Just one day in Georgia, and it’s not even evening in Tbilisi:

The first thing we learned upon waking was that Temur Katamadze, a Turkish citizen of Georgian descent, was forcibly expelled to Turkey overnight, unable to notify anyone or even say goodbye to his wife. 1/

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— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

Katamadze, 56, who lived in Georgia since 2012 and sought citizenship, gained attention during ongoing anti-government, pro-EU protests. Known as “Batumi’s flag bearer” for proudly waving a Georgian flag at daily rallies in the coastal city, he became a symbol of resistance. 2/

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— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

He was arrested on January 11 for allegedly disobeying police and again on January 16 for what officials claimed was illegal residence. Katamadze endured a 48-day hunger strike in detention. 3/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

GD’s Deputy Interior Minister Aleksandre Darakhvelidze said the expulsion was carried out “with force” and “in accordance with Georgian legislation,” citing a court order. In April, the Tbilisi Court of Appeals denied Katamadze refugee or humanitarian status. 4/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

Meanwhile, half of GD’s leadership, including Ivanishvili’s PM, his MFA, Tbilisi Mayor, and several MPs, attended a lavish “opening” of the Georgian consulate in Milan. HOWEVER, the consulate has been operating since November 2023. 5/

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— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

The British embassy in Tbilisi announced it canceled grants for civil society aimed at voter education and election monitoring for the upcoming municipal elections. The GD failed to finalize a decree for grant approvals, leaving no mechanism or timeline for decisions. 6/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

A criminal case was launched against activist Nino Datashvili over an incident at Tbilisi City Court during a sham hearing for regime prisoners. The regime claims Datashvili attacked a court security employee. 7/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

Last week, GD slapped activists with a lawsuit for using insulting language against them on social media. Today, numerous activists and politicians got called in for questioning.

The terror in Georgia grows every single day. 8/END

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

2/ The head of the Social Justice Center (SJC), Tamta Mikeladze, wrote on social media that Katamadze was deported to Turkey last night.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 8:47 AM

2/ “The deadline for voluntary departure expired yesterday, and he couldn’t use that right because he did not have a valid document — the Turkish side had revoked his passport in 2020. It was also not possible to issue a one-time travel document”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 8:47 AM

3/ “This morning, a friend of ours living in Turkey, with whom I am in constant contact, informed me. The police had contacted him at Temur’s request and informed him that he is now on Turkish territory”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 8:47 AM

4/ “He is in the city of Ardahan and will be transferred to the city of Ordu, where the absurd case against him has been launched and where questioning and investigation will begin,” Katamadze’s wife, Nino Kakulia, said on air with Formula TV.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 8:47 AM

5/ Temur Katamadze is a descendant of Georgian Muslims who were exiled to the Ottoman Empire by the Russian Empire in the 19th century. He has been living in Georgia since 2012 but has not been granted citizenship despite repeated attempts.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 8:47 AM

6/ According to his family, in Turkey Katamadze faces imprisonment, as turkish authorities consider him a member of FETO, the movement led by Fethullah Gülen, which is designated as a terrorist organisation in Turkey.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 8:47 AM

The UK:

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine will receive nearly £1.7 billion from the United Kingdom for additional weapons purchases, including Rapid Ranger air defense missile systems and Martlet lightweight missiles.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 12:09 PM

The US:

Bipartisan House Members Urge Secretary Rubio to Save Program Tracking Kidnapped Ukrainian Children
doggett.house.gov/media/press-…

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— Timothy Snyder (@timothysnyder.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 7:49 PM

They simply do not care.

McConnell: “Who’s the aggressor and who’s the victim in the conflict?”

Hegseth: “Russia is the aggressor.”

McConnell: “Which side do you want to win?”

Hegseth: “This president is committed to peace.”

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— The Bulwark (@thebulwark.com) June 11, 2025 at 10:50 AM

He’s committed to acquiring a piece of Donetsk and Luhansk. And a few slices of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson too.

What Hegseth means is that he doesn’t care if Ukraine perishes, as long as the war ends. In fact, that outcome is preferable to him because it’s fast and requires no effort from his side.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 11:18 AM

Moscow on the Potomac:

Having a weapon doesn’t entitle someone to murder their neighbors at will.
Possessing tanks doesn’t grant them the right to loot other people’s homes.
Operating warplanes doesn’t justify abducting children—not ours, and not yours.
Even possessing nukes doesn’t entitle them to any of the above.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 9:59 AM

Once we allow that line to be crossed, simply because it’s us being murdered, our homes looted, or our children abducted instead of yours, then no one will ever be safe again.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 9:59 AM

Gabbard is just delusional. We are not closer to nuclear annihilation than ever before. We are not closer than during the Cuban missile crisis when the cool head of the Soviet submarine fleet commander stopped a nuclear launch, nor during Able Archer 1983 when another cool headed Soviet officer recognized he signals the Soviets were intercepting were from a war game and not actual US nuclear forces beginning a strike.

Back to Ukraine.

Last night, russia turned most of its terror arsenal on Kyiv alone — 322 air threats in a 5h nonstop assault.
The Defence Forces neutralized 284, incl:
– 213 drones & 64 jammed/lost,
– 2 ballistic missiles,
– 5 cruise missiles.
Ukraine needs #SkyShieldNow and more air defences.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 10, 2025 at 2:26 AM

The Ukraine war shows countries don’t need a small amount of the best equipment. They need a huge quantity of less-impressive gear.

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— Business Insider (@businessinsider.com) June 11, 2025 at 5:48 AM

From Business Insider:

Ukraine’s defense industry is urging the West to abandon its longtime fixation on high-end, expensive weaponry in favor of cheaper, mass-produced arms, the kind needed to survive and win a grinding war of attrition against an adversary like Russia.

Serhiy Goncharov, the CEO of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries — which represents about 100 Ukrainian companies — told Business Insider the West’s long-standing focus on fielding limited numbers of cutting-edge systems could be a serious disadvantage in a protracted conflict. Those systems are good to have, but mass is key.

The war in Ukraine shows that instead of a handful of ultraprecise, expensive weapons, countries need a massive supply of good enough firepower, Goncharov said.

He said the expensive weapons such as the US military’s M982 Excalibur guided munition (each shell costs $100,000) “don’t work” when the other side has electronic warfare systems and the kind of traditional artillery rounds that are 30 times cheaper in tremendous supply.

Goncharov pointed to the M107, a self-propelled gun that was first fielded by the US in the 1960s, as an example of inexpensive firepower that can be effective in large numbers.

“You don’t need 10 Archers from the Swedish that are probably one of the best artillery systems in the world,” he said, referring to the artillery system made by BAE Systems that was given to Ukraine by Sweden. Instead, you need 200 cheap howitzers, such as the Bohdana one that Ukraine makes.

The significant rate of ammo and equipment attrition in a fight such as this means a constant supply of weaponry is needed to keep fighting, especially when there isn’t any guarantee the high-end weapons will be the game changers promised.

Russia’s invasion has chewed through equipment. The UK Ministry of Defense said in December that Russia had lost more than 3,600 main battle tanks and almost 8,000 armored vehicles since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The Russians have the mass to absorb those losses. Ukraine has struggled with weapon and ammo shortages, as well as deficiencies in manpower. Ukraine turned to small, cheap drones as an asymmetric warfare alternative; Russia has employed uncrewed systems in battle as well.

China, another concern in the West, has built a similar kind of force, one with the mass to take losses.

The West, on the other hand, has spent the past two decades and change fighting lower-level adversaries where its forces can win the day with superior capabilities.

Goncharov’s warning is one that has been echoed by other Western defense officials and companies.

Countries have been keen to learn lessons about fighting Russia from the conflict in Ukraine, particularly in Europe, where many countries warn Russia could pursue further aggression in the future, and defense spending is growing rapidly.

Gabrielius Landsbergis, the former defense minister of Lithuania, a NATO ally bordering Russia, previously described the war to BI as one of “high quantities.”

He said that while the West had largely focused on new and expensive weaponry that takes a long time to manufacture, Russia had been “building something that’s cheap, that’s expendable, that’s fast.”

He said the West had “been preparing for a different kind of war” than what it would face in one against Russia, focusing on impressive equipment that is “very expensive.”

Troels Lund Poulsen, the Danish defense minister, previously told BI that “one of the lessons” from Ukraine was that the West needed far greater quantities of inexpensive weaponry to meet the threats posed by Russia and China.

More at the link!

What the Ukrainians are demonstrating and, based on demonstration through actual operations, talking about is change to the character and characteristics of war. A very 21st century tweak to older concepts.

🇺🇦 Wounded Ukrainian soldier rescued by unmanned ground vehicle.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 10:04 AM

Consider this.

During the February “Oval Office Ambush”, Zelensky was fully aware of SBU plans to launch a big attack on fascist Russia’s strategic bomber fleet in Operation Spiderweb.

Sitting there, being told he had “no cards” to play, Zelensky must have thought Trump and Vance were utter fools.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 3:11 AM

Overnight, russia bombed residential houses across Ukraine, burying people in the ruins of their homes.
Ukraine hit the Tambov gunpowder factory — a key supplier of propellants for russian weapons.
Is it really that hard to tell who the villain is in this war?

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 12:52 PM

More of GBU-62, AASM HAMMER 250 and GBU-39 air strikes on Russian targets. t.me/utac_team/138

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM

Kyiv:

Defense Express: Russia’s new jet-powered Shahed drone hits Kyiv for the first time — 3X faster than earlier models

Russia’s Geran-3 — its jet-powered version of the Iranian Shahed drone — reaches speeds of up to 600 km/h.

euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/11/r…

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 4:08 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

Russia has likely used a new jet-powered attack drone, the Geran-3, in a recent missile and drone strike on Kyiv, according to Ukrainian defense outlet Defense Express.

The development comes amid a sharp escalation in Moscow’s drone warfare. Russia is now deploying high-altitude, dive-bombing Shahed drones at scale—reportedly producing thousands monthly using Iranian designs and domestic assembly lines. These drones increasingly strike civilian infrastructure, overwhelming Ukrainian defenses and causing mounting casualties and destruction.

Photos of the downed UAV show several key components, including a compact jet engine, indicating that the drone was likely the Geran-3 — a Russian variant of the Iranian Shahed-238. This model marks a significant upgrade over the slower Shahed-136 (Geran-2), boasting reported speeds of 550–600 km/h and a range of up to 2,500 km, compared to the Shahed-136’s 185 km/h.

Residents of Kyiv reported hearing a distinct whistling sound during the strike, consistent with a jet-powered drone and unlike the quieter propeller-driven models previously used.

Among the wreckage, investigators found an avionics panel nearly identical to those used in the Shahed-136 — responsible for flight programming, engine control, and onboard systems — suggesting a shared design lineage.

Though the drone was heavily fragmented, Defense Express says the evidence points to either an imported Shahed-238 or a Russian-produced version built with Iranian-sourced components.

More at the link.

Kharkiv:

Russian drones over Kharkiv right now ‼️ air defense is working

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 6:35 PM

Russian drones over Kharkiv again‼️ The air defense is working. It’s the second attack on our city tonight.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 7:40 PM

Homes in Kharkiv still smolder from last night’s russian drone strikes — and already, the city is under attack again. Multiple explosions reported.

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 6:55 PM

More explosions in Kharkiv ‼️ just fuck off already, you murderous bastards!

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 7:56 PM

Kharkiv is mourning as a russian drone attack killed three people last night. Another 60 were injured, including seven children. The terrorist state struck the city with 17 drones, destroying residential buildings, houses and civilian enterprise.

But the world won’t even flinch.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 2:36 AM

The death toll following tonight’s Russian drone attack on Kharkiv has risen to 4.
A 65-year-old woman has died in the hospital.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 11:50 AM

Russian drone strike on Kharkiv last night collapsed two floors of the apartment building. Killed at least 3 people and injured over 60

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 8:01 AM

Police have released the first minutes of bodycam footage following last night’s Russian drone strike on Kharkiv.

Collapsed structures, efforts to pull a person from the rubble as fire spreads, and the Ukrainian anthem he sings on the brink of death.

Turn your sound on.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 7:13 AM

Saratov Oblast, Russia:

Something is on fire in russian Engels again 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Russian public channels report an explosion in Engels – a large column of smoke can be seen.

According to some Telegram channels, the explosion occurred at the 9th Central Automobile Repair Plant, which is located less than two kilometers from the “Kristall” oil depot.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 11:30 AM

Tambov Oblast, Russia:

In Kotovsk, Tambov region, Russia, around 10 explosion sounds were heard.
Russian Telegram channels report that unidentified drones are attacking a gunpowder plant.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 5:18 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

🐶 Together, they are an unbeatable team, ready to defend their homeland! 🇺🇦

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 10, 2025 at 3:57 PM

Open thread!

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    18Comments

    1. 1.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 11, 2025 at 10:18 pm

      I’m going to get cleaned up and rack out.

      Everyone is most welcome.

      Reply
    2. 2.

      J. Arthur Crank

      June 11, 2025 at 10:27 pm

      Thanks Adam.  Hegseth needs a knee to the groin, among other things.   I don’t expect you to do that, I am just making an observation.

      Also too:  Addison “Bitch” McConnell looks and sounds  like all of his internal organs have been replaced by mechanical ones.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Lyrebird

      June 11, 2025 at 10:41 pm

      Thanks Adam, particularly for highlighting the Euan MacDonald tweet.

      from that:

      Sitting there, being told he had “no cards” to play, Zelensky must have thought Trump and Vance were utter fools.

      Sitting there, Zelensky demonstrated that matter and anti-matter don’t explode… I’m aware that Zelensky has critics, I think our own Gin & Tonic has referred to this on a number of occasions, and I am not pretending he’s superhuman.  But there he was, maintaining operational security like a boss.  He DOES all those tedious presidential duties that the fascist avoids: honoring veterans, comforting widows etc, refraining from breaking op sec just bc of a chance to look cool or sell a state secret. Obvs this is not central to the post, but FWIW I pray the USA can hang together and once again have a president who honors the job and the country.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      YY_Sima Qian

      June 11, 2025 at 10:43 pm

      The Ukraine war shows countries don’t need a small amount of the best equipment. They need a huge quantity of less-impressive gear.

      Wasn’t that the lesson of WW II? The huge qty of less impressive Soviet & American (& British) gear overwhelmed the smaller qty of impressive (but expensive & less reliable) German gear? Likewise for the quality of the soldiers?

      Reply
    5. 5.

      YY_Sima Qian

      June 11, 2025 at 10:45 pm

      What?!

      Japan buys Russian crude oil for first time in over 2 years
      Sakhalin Blend import ensures stable LNG supply for country
      SHOTARO TANI
      June 12, 2025 10:58 JST

      Perhaps a consequence of Trump’s tendency to shove highly priced US LNG down the throats of allies.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Jay

      June 11, 2025 at 10:58 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      YY_Sima Qian

      June 11, 2025 at 11:14 pm

      OT: Things about to blow up in the Middle East?:

      Nicole Grajewski @NicoleGrajewski

      The U.S. has ordered the evacuation of nonessential embassy staff from Baghdad and Erbil, and authorized the voluntary departure of military families from bases across Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE. This comes amid rising fears of an Israeli strike on Iran.

      U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Israel may be preparing to launch unilateral strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities— something that would provoke Iranian retaliation against American assets in the region and derail already fragile U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.

      Meanwhile, at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting this week in Vienna, Iran is facing a formal censure—led by the E3 (UK, France, Germany)—for nuclear non-compliance for the first time in nearly two decades.

      Today, Iran issued a sharp warning to the E3 ahead of the IAEA BoG vote. Foreign Minister Araghchi warned that any E3-led censure will trigger a “strong response,” hinting Iran could ramp up enrichment or pull back from treaty commitments— possibly even leaving the NPT.

      Given the potential of a formal censure Iran for noncompliance in the IAEA, Israel may seize the moment to justify preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. With Tehran isolated and under scrutiny, Israeli officials could claim there is international cover for military action.

      I strongly believe that an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would be the most compelling internal justification for Iran to withdraw from the NPT, more so than E3 snapback or IAEA censure.

      Iran has long framed the NPT as a tool of Western double standards, used to punish Iran while ignoring Israel’s undeclared arsenal. A direct Israeli strike would reinforce that view. And allow Iran to pander to states that are also discontent with the NPT’s double standards.

      An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites would provide the strongest rationale for withdrawal under Article X. Tehran could argue its inalienable right to peaceful nuclear energy was violated, and that NPT membership invites attack, not protection.

      For more on the potential scenarios around Iranian withdrawal, see this piece that @jamiekwong and I wrote during the October 2024 escalation between Iran and Israel.
      Will Iran Withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?

      In addition to retaliation against U.S. assets, Iran may respond to an Israeli strike with another ballistic missile barrage. This time, however, Iran may not focus primarily on military targets. Tehran could target critical Israeli infrastructure or even civilian sites.

      Much remains in flux. Iran is under immense external and internal pressure. Hardline factions may be emboldened to now argue that a rapid path to a crude nuclear weapon or full NPT withdrawal is the best path forward.

      Of course, all of this could be posturing for the next round of negotiations in Oman on Sunday which would be the best case scenario.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Westyny

      June 12, 2025 at 12:06 am

      Thank you, Adam.  The situation on Georgia is locating rage in me that I thought had died down.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      wombat probability cloud

      June 12, 2025 at 12:10 am

      @Lyrebird: Beautifully put. That’s my hope, also.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      AlaskaReader

      June 12, 2025 at 12:22 am

      Thanks Adam

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Jay

      June 12, 2025 at 12:25 am

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      https://nitter.poast.org/Osinttechnical

      The Pizza Index* has shot up by over 50%.

      *the pizza shop nearest the Pentagon is used as an indicator. When pizza orders blow through the roof, shit’s going down.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      NotoriousJRT

      June 12, 2025 at 1:52 am

      Tulsi Gabbard should be launched into the sun with Hegseth and Stephen Miller handcuffed to her ankles. This performative bullshit is just an updated version of “the smoking gun in the form of a mushroom cloud.” If we pull out of this people must be eternally shunned.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Geminid

      June 12, 2025 at 2:14 am

      @Jay: There also were talks at Camp David last weekend between Trump and his national security team, as reported by Axios and others. Barak Ravid’s Axios story is titled, “Trump held lengthy strategy session with top team on Iran and Gaza” June 10, 2025. The discussions on Gaza wouldn’t have taken much time at all, I think, so these meetings were about Iran.

      Besides Trump, attendees included Vance, Witkoff, Rubio, Hegseth, CIA Director Ratcliffe and Chief of Staff Susan Wiles; it sounds like senior military leaders were in on some of the sessions. Ravid’s story was revised to note that DNI Gabbard was not present as he reported originally.

      Also, CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla was scheduled to testify before Congress today but that has been postponed.

      Some background: the 60 day deadline set by Trump back in April, when he initiated this set of negotiations, expires this week. So there is a lot riding on that meeting in Muscat Sunday.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      sab

      June 12, 2025 at 2:29 am

      @Geminid: Trump is so far over his head on everything. Boggles the mind about how boggled his mind is.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Geminid

      June 12, 2025 at 2:50 am

      @sab: I think Susan Wiles is running this show.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      catfishncod

      June 12, 2025 at 5:54 am

      @Jay: That ought to be the most ridiculous OPSEC hole I have ever heard of, but it doesn’t hit the top five for this year.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      dimmsdale

      June 12, 2025 at 5:55 am

      Thank you as ever, Adam.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      YY_Sima Qian

      June 12, 2025 at 9:26 am

      So, Iran just unveiled a new hidden enrichment facility, & only notified the IAEA when it went operational, & after the IAEA voted to designate Iran as out of compliance.

      Iran Nuances @IranNuances

      Per a joint statement by Iran MFA & AEOI, #Iran has ordered launching a new enrichment center at “a secure location” & replacement of IR-1 centrifuges with advanced IR-6 ones at Fordow underground nuclear facility. This comes in response to the IAEA Board of Governors resolution.

      #Iran‘s #nuclear chief: We’ve built & prepared the new location for enrichment which is secure & invulnerable. We sent DIQ to IAEA immediately after resolution was adopted. Process of equipping & installing centrifuges begins, & enrichment will begin as soon as setup is complete.

      Jeffrey Lewis reminding everyone how we got here:

      Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk

      Under the JCPOA, Iran accepted a modified safeguards agreement* that prohibited building a centrifuge plant, then notifying the @iaeaorg at the last moment. Those who abandoned the JCPOA own this outcome. The Iranians should name the facility after them.

      …

      Reply

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