Joint Publication 3-60: Joint Targeting defines indirect effects as:
Indirect effects are the delayed and/or displaced second-, third-, and higherorder consequences of action, created through intermediate events or mechanisms. These outcomes may be physical or behavioral in nature. Indirect effects may be difficult to recognize due to subtle changes in system behavior that may make them difficult to observe. For example, an indirect effect of destroying a communications node or capturing a terrorist cell courier may degrade the effectiveness of the fielded enemy force’s C2 structure. Effects such as this have real benefits but may be more difficult to assess and measure individually or in the short-term. Although a factor for consideration, difficulty of assessment should not be the primary factor for choosing to create direct or indirect effects.
Regarding Shahed drone production used against Ukraine, today’s strikes in Iran are unlikely to have a direct impact. Russia has not only localized production for some time now, but has also modernized and improved the systems to make them more resilient to countermeasures
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 4:48 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Kyiv on June 13 expressed concern over the security situation in the Middle East after Israeli air strikes against Iran, but stressed that Tehran remains a “source of problems” in the region “and beyond.”
The statement follows what Israel called a “preemptive” strike against Iran overnight on June 13, targeting the country’s nuclear program and reportedly killing top military officials.
“We would like to remind you that the Iranian regime supports Russia in its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine and provides Moscow with weapons to kill Ukrainians,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Kyiv nevertheless also warned that further hostilities could destabilize the region with “negative consequences for international security and global financial stability, especially in oil markets.”
Israeli strikes were quickly followed by a surge in oil prices, Russia’s key export commodity, with Brent and Nymex crude prices jumping by more than 10%.
“We are convinced that restoring peace and stability in the Middle East will serve the interests not only of the region but also of the entire international community,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said.
Back to JP 3-60:
(b) Cascading Effects. Effects can ripple through a target system, often influencing other systems. This most typically occurs through nodes and links that are common and critical to related systems. The cascading of direct and indirect effects, as the name implies, usually flows from higher to lower levels. As an example, destruction of a headquarters element or capture of a terrorist senior leader will result in the loss of C2 and thus degrade the effectiveness of subordinate organizations. A nonlethal example could be if counter threat finance (CTF) actions are taken against a threat network and a significant portion of the threat group’s funds are seized and financiers are arrested by law enforcement, the cascading effect could be a loss in the ability to pay enemy.
(c) Unintended Effects. Effects often spill over to create unintended consequences, which may be counterproductive or may create opportunities. An example of a counterproductive consequence entails injury or collateral damage to persons or objects unrelated to the intended target. Conversely, some unforeseen effects may create opportunities the joint force can exploit to help accomplish objectives. Unintended effects may also occur if the pre-strike analysis was incorrect and the enemy’s reaction differs from what was expected, complicates operations, or causes a change to operations (e.g., the enemy as expected to withdraw, but they counterattacked with their strategic reserve instead). The pre-strike analysis may also have miscalculated the local civilian population perceptions/reactions and international public opinion, ultimately resulting in more restrictions on target selection or engagement timing. Planners and targeteers should consider second-, third-, and higher-order effects, especially political-military effects, during planning and assessment. While estimating outcomes is rarely an exact process, estimation becomes increasingly difficult as effects continue to compound and cascade through targets and target systems. In addition, the impact of a single event can often be magnified over time and distance that greatly exceeds the span of the direct effect associated with that one event.
Another potential cascading and unintended effect is that Israel’s attempt to decapitate Iranian military and civilian leadership has created an opening for the Paydari Front to accumulate even more power.
The Paydari Front, or Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution, are Shia supremacists who oppose any kind of compromise with anyone inside or outside Iran. They deride their critics as atheists and counter-revolutionaries and want to turn Tehran’s parks into mosques. They consider any kind of reconciliation with the West such anathema that some of their ilk burnt the text of the JCPOA, the deal Iran signed with six world powers in 2015 limiting its nuclear programme, in parliament. They liken “strategic patience” in the face of Israeli attacks to appeasement.
Their opponents speak of state capture. Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline cleric who was elected president in 2021, has given them prominent positions in his government. His father-in-law is perhaps Iran’s most radical cleric; his sermons fire the Paydaris’ zeal. They tightened their grip on power in last month’s parliamentary elections after many people boycotted the vote. Paydari Front candidates trounced Mohammaed Bagher Qalibaf, a pragmatic former mayor of Tehran, IRGC commander and relative of Mr Khamenei’s. They are now seeking to oust him as speaker of parliament. They have passed new chastity laws. Against the advice of IRGC old-timers, they are seeking to reimpose the mandatory hijab after its de-facto suspension following widespread protests in 2022. On the same day that Iran struck Israel, they sent the morality police back on the streets after a year-long hiatus.
The Paydari Front’s clerics have also infiltrated the ranks of the IRGC. The most recent generation of commanders spent their careers attending summer camps run by Paydari clerics, many of whom are also posted to their units. “The new generation is more ideological and abrasive, less experienced and less pragmatic,” says Saeid Golkar, an expert on the IRGCat the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. Unlike earlier generations, they have no memory of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. They use religious texts to devise strategy. “Those who don’t know war are more eager to fight,” he says, quoting an Iranian saying.
Now we watch and wait.
President Zelenskyy does not seem to have addressed the Ukrainian people today most likely because he’s on his way to the Canada for the G7. He did present awards to members of Ukraine’s military.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the warriors for defending Ukraine, presented the highest state awards, and handed over the Orders of the Golden Star to the families of fallen Heroes who were posthumously conferred this title.
The Head of State noted that since the beginning of the full-scale war, over 113,000 Ukrainian defenders from various branches of the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine have been awarded orders and medals, most of them specifically for participation in combat.
“Behind each such combat award is the story of a warrior, the story of a fight against circumstances, the story of a fight against evil, a fight against the occupier. And behind all such our Ukrainian awards is the story of a state that many in the world had written off and once ignored, but which, despite everything, has endured and defends its right to life and independence every day,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized.
The President remarked that we must protect Ukraine and ensure a normal life for Ukrainian children to be worthy of those who gave their lives for our state. A minute of silence was observed to honor the memory of each person who died for Ukraine.
The Head of State presented the Orders of the Golden Star to the families of fallen Heroes of Ukraine. Those posthumously awarded this title include:
Captain Andrii Antykhovych. On the night of February 24, 2022, he brought a combat aircraft out of harm’s way during a missile attack on the airfield. In the following days, he destroyed columns of Russian vehicles — his flight of two aircraft was among the first in Ukraine to seek and destroy them. During his sortie on February 26, a Russian fighter aircraft launched a missile. Andrii Antykhovych realized the hit was unavoidable, reported to his commander that he would provide cover, and changed the plane’s course. The warrior had no opportunity to eject.
Sergeant Yurii Balanchuk. He participated in combat clashes and special operations, during which Ukrainian warriors eliminated senior Russian officers and took some prisoners. Together with his brothers-in-arms, he regained control of the “Tavryda” and “Petro Hodovanets” drilling rigs in the Black Sea. In October 2023, he took part in a special operation in temporarily occupied Crimea. Yurii Balanchuk died on October 4, 2023, during a battle in the Black Sea, ramming one of the enemy boats and ensuring the evacuation for his brothers-in-arms.
Sergeant Pavlo Baltian. He defended Ukraine in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Donetsk regions. He commanded an anti-tank reserve and led the repulsion of an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group attack, organized circular defense, and personally destroyed over 25 occupiers and seven enemy vehicles. He repeatedly evacuated wounded brothers-in-arms under fire. On February 27, 2023, Pavlo Baltian suffered a fatal injury in battle, but thanks to his actions, his subordinates were able to clear an enemy position and hold their ground.
Junior Sergeant Serhii Voloshchuk. On July 20, 2023, as a combat medic, he was carrying out a task in the Kharkiv region. He was blown up by a landmine while in a vehicle. Despite his injury, he engaged in a firefight with an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group and forced it to retreat. Thanks to this, Serhii Voloshchuk saved the lives of many warriors, but he died himself.
Junior Sergeant Roman Holub (National Guard of Ukraine). Using a handheld grenade launcher, he destroyed an infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) with its crew and four occupiers, and with automatic rifle fire destroyed another IFV and enemy ammunition. Together with fellow warriors, he found and destroyed 32 grenade launchers, over 80 artillery shells, two anti-tank “Fagot” systems, 18 VOG grenades, and other munitions. Despite being wounded, he covered the retreat of ten brothers-in-arms but died himself.
Senior Soldier Yevhen Horin. He repelled enemy assaults on the Bakhmut direction, where in battle he destroyed over 20 occupiers. He participated in an assault during which he captured a Russian radio station, which helped Ukrainian warriors obtain information on the timing and direction of the enemy attack. On March 15, 2023, Yevhen Horin was killed in artillery fire, covering his brothers-in-arms with his body.
Junior Sergeant Oleksii Dziubka (National Guard of Ukraine). With automatic rifle fire, he eliminated nine occupiers, which later allowed the destruction of enemy equipment, about two infantry platoons, and forced the occupiers to retreat. He was the first to storm an enemy trench and destroy a machine gun crew with a grenade. On December 18, 2023, he remotely detonated a section and killed 12 Russian invaders; nine others were wounded. Later, with a grenade launcher, he hit two armored personnel carriers (APCs) and about 20 infantrymen. However, during the retreat, Oleksiy Dziubka was killed in enemy artillery fire.
Sergeant Hennadii Kernychnyi. Since 2015, he took part in battles in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In 2019, while covering the evacuation of a wounded brother-in-arms, he sustained a severe leg injury that required partial amputation. During the full-scale Russian invasion, despite the prosthesis, he participated in defense, assaults, liberation, and clearing of settlements in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions. Hennadii Kernychnyi was killed last year on September 23 in a Russian FPV drone strike on his vehicle.
Lieutenant Colonel Denys Kyryliuk. After the full-scale Russian invasion began, he moved aviation equipment to operational airfields. He completed 62 combat sorties. On February 27, 2023, he destroyed aerial targets flying a Su-27 despite intense Russian air defense and electronic warfare efforts. During one of the missions, Denys Kyrylyuk diverted his damaged aircraft away from the city of Pryluky in the Chernihiv region, but was killed himself.
Junior Sergeant Andrii Kolodiaznyi. He took part in battles in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Personally destroyed an IFV, a T-72 tank, and 12 occupiers. He was wounded, but after recovery, he returned to defend Ukraine. He led an assault group that reclaimed its positions and captured enemy ones, holding the line. On April 14 of last year, Andrii Kolodiaznyi was killed by enemy small arms fire.
Chief Sergeant Yevhenii Lemeshenko. He commanded a special forces group that conducted reconnaissance, including identifying enemy weapons and positions, and clearing mines. His group completed combat missions and captured enemy positions in the Kherson and Kursk directions. Yevhenii Lemeshenko was killed on September 15 last year as a result of artillery fire.
Sergeant Andrii Liniichuk. One of the first Ukrainian warriors to use the man-portable air defense system Starstreak in combat. He shot down 16 Russian Orlan-10 UAVs, one ZALA UAV, and a Ka-52 helicopter. On April 28, 2023, he spotted another drone and attempted to destroy it, but was killed by an enemy artillery strike.
Sergeant Leonid Khelemskyi. As a group commander, he organized the defense of a position in the Bakhmut direction. When three defenders were wounded during shelling, he personally held off the advancing Russian forces and eliminated six occupiers. Later, he carried a severely wounded brother-in-arms to an evacuation point but came under fire and was killed.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy also awarded the Order of the Golden Star of the Hero of Ukraine to Chief Sergeant Andrii Orlivskyi (National Guard of Ukraine). In the Donetsk direction, he neutralized 70 explosive devices, enabling assault units to prepare for an offensive. As part of a group, he laid mines that destroyed three enemy tanks, two IFVs, four APCs, and enemy personnel. In the Zaporizhzhia direction, he rescued five crew members from a vehicle engulfed in flames.
In addition, the Head of State awarded ten defenders the Crosses of Military Merit. The awards were presented to:
Lieutenant Colonel Yaroslav Burkovskyi. In December of last year, an airborne assault battalion under his command held the line in the Kursk region. The unit repelled 20 assaults by superior enemy forces, eliminating 27 occupiers and wounding another 61. Yaroslav Burkovskyi also organized a counterattack that prevented Ukrainian forces from being encircled, and a counteroffensive that allowed the restoration of lost positions.
Seaman Yurii Vizinskyi. In February of this year, during assaults and while repelling enemy attacks in the Donetsk region, he eliminated over 30 occupiers, destroyed an ammunition depot, and hit an enemy APC with an RPG shot. Yurii Vizinskyi also covered his brothers-in-arms and organized the defense.
Senior Lieutenant Dmytro Zhukov (National Guard of Ukraine). In the area of the Serebrianskyi forestry, over two days, he eliminated 12 occupiers, provided aid to wounded brothers-in-arms, and organized their evacuation. In the Kharkiv direction, he was the first to engage in battle and killed 15 Russian invaders. On September 28 last year, he was wounded by the explosion of an enemy shell.
Major Serhii Zavaliy. In autumn of last year, as part of a combined unit, he carried out missions in the Kursk region. He repelled enemy assaults by superior forces, destroyed enemy personnel, and ensured the evacuation of the wounded. Despite being wounded himself, he held the position with a brother-in-arms until the evacuation group returned.
Private Andrii Zahainyi. In spring of this year, in the Kharkiv region, he tracked enemy movements, directed fire, eliminated occupiers and their UAVs, engaged in combat against larger enemy forces, and repelled attacks on observation posts. He was wounded but managed to provide aid to himself and a brother-in-arms and brought him to the evacuation point.
Commander of the 46th Separate Airmobile “Podilska” Brigade, Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Kapitula. In October of last year, during an operation in the Kursk region, he made a swift and unexpected decision to counterattack. As a result, Russian troops were cut off from their main forces and struck by artillery: 19 occupiers were eliminated and two were taken prisoner. Dmytro Kapitula has participated in numerous combat engagements and consistently motivated his troops by personal example.
Commander of the 79th Separate Tavrian Air Assault Brigade, Colonel Eduard Kolodii. In July of last year, in the Kurakhove direction, the brigade under his command repelled an enemy assault, destroying six tanks, seven armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) with personnel, 12 motorcycles, and 37 occupiers — forcing the enemy to retreat. Thanks to the leadership and actions of Eduard Kolodii, all tasks assigned to the unit were fully accomplished.
Captain Yevhen Korzhyk. Since January of last year, the strike UAV company under his command has carried out reconnaissance and fire correction missions. As a result, dozens of enemy targets were destroyed — including infantry, artillery, and armored vehicles. In particular, FPV drones launched by his crews attacked enemy positions and equipment during battles near Krynky.
Senior Soldier Rodion Marynskyi (National Guard of Ukraine). In the Bakhmut direction, just 250 meters from enemy firing positions, he evacuated a wounded brother-in-arms. During a four-hour battle, he destroyed an enemy machine gun position and seven occupiers, broke through an encirclement, and helped eight wounded warriors. On June 27 last year, he was wounded while evacuating a fellow warrior.
Senior Sergeant Viacheslav Savchenko. In 2022, he held positions in the Kherson region, and in 2023, he defended and liberated settlements in the Donetsk region. Leading an assault group, he organized a breakthrough, cleared enemy positions, and evacuated the wounded near Krynky. In October last year, he was wounded by an FPV drone but remained at his position and commanded the defense for another four days until reinforcements arrived.
Georgia:
Day 198 of #GeorgiaProtests
Heavy rainfall this evening.
But our unyielding people are there, including the elderly who have seen it all.
We must win soon enough for them to see freedom.
Friends can aid us avoid costs that can be avoided by clarity, sanctions, etc.
📷 MOSE
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 1:42 PM
“Victory to Ukraine! Victory to Georgia!” 🇺🇦🇬🇪
Day 198 of daily #GeorgiaProtests
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 2:08 PM
1/ Nika Gvaramia — Another opposition leader has been placed in pre-trial detention after refusing to pay bail in the case of refusing to appear before the Georgian Dream’s investigation commission.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 4:50 AM
2/ Nika Gvaramia will be the third political leader from the Coalition for Change after Zura Japaridze and Nika Melia to be placed in detention on the same charges.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 4:50 AM
3/ Former Defence Minister Irakli Okruashvili is also in detention, while court hearings for several other opposition leaders are still ongoing.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 4:50 AM
🗣️“The oligarchy must fall,” said Nika Gvaramia, as he was handcuffed after voluntarily turning himself in at the prison.
Gvaramia is charged for refusing to appear before a parliamentary commission set up by Georgian Dream to investigate opposition leaders.
#RepressionInGeorgia
#GeorgiaProtests— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 13, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Honestly, this is so witty, amusing, and confident in the face of injustice and hostile takeover.
Instead of attending the farce trial, third democratic forces leader now jailed, Nika Gvaramia, arrived with his bag at the prison entrance before his verdict was even announced.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 5:26 AM
A total of 18 individuals — including journalists, activists, and politicians — have been summoned to court under a repressive law for Facebook posts allegedly “insulting” members of the Georgian Dream party.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Why we fight – my interview about the Georgian struggle with Theo Allthorpe-Mullis available on various platforms, including YouTube.
Theo does series of podcasts on freedom fighters around the globe. Please support him!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=w5ik…
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 9:23 AM
THIS!👇🏻
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, has stated that Ukraine is no longer interested in continuing negotiations with the Russian Federation unless a ceasefire is agreed upon.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Sybiha emphasized the futility of past discussions, noting, “We’ve witnessed the complete inadequacy of the Russian delegation; they are demanding our capitulation.”
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Soledar:
An epic video of a Russian Su-25 crash has appeared online.
Some say another Russian Su-25 shot it down, while others believe the plane fell apart for a different reason. All I see is fewer Russians in our skies. 🍿🔥
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 12:12 PM
A Russian Su-25 was lost today in what appears to be a friendly fire incident during the launch of unguided rockets (most likely S-13).
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Vovchansk:
A little over a year ago, Vovchansk was a town of nearly 18,000 people. Then, Russia destroyed it.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Russian occupied Crimea:
In the occupied Crimea, “the russian FSB have seized a Ukrainian couple, Oleh and Natalia, with their 9yo child taken from school and placed in care.” Pure horror. Occupation is not peace.
khpg.org/en/1608814722— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 5:15 PM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Ukrainian drone operators from the “Raid” battalion destroyed a Russian stockpile of anti-tank mines in the Kursk region. The operation also eliminated a Z-STS “Akhmat” armored vehicle, along with trucks, pickups, and vans used for Russian logistics.
#UkraineWarNews
#UkrainianView— Ukraine War News (@ukrainewarnews.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 6:03 AM
Donetsk:
The “Phoenix” Recon Battalion of the 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade executed a precision operation, using Ukrainian drones to clear pipes where Russians hid. Likely on the Donetsk front.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Russian military convoy was struck by a HIMARS early this morning near Donetsk during personnel transportation. All vehicles involved have black military license plates. At least one body of a Russian soldier in uniform is visible near the convoy. Preliminary reports mention up to 20 killed.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Obligatory:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
MiG-29 air strike on Russian base. Zaporizhzhia front. t.me/kpszsu/36248
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 8:11 AM
The Kherson front:
Precise FPV drone strike hits Russian decision-making center. Kherson front.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 5:39 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Alexei Surovtsev, is a Ukrainian actor who risked his life surveying destroyed buildings in the city of Irpin looking for abandoned pets.
#MenWithCats
His longer story is in the alt-text
— Greg Morosoff (@gregmorosoff.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 2:37 AM
From the alt-text:
Alexei Surovtsev, a Ukrainian actor who risked his life surveying destroyed buildings in the city of Irpin looking for abandoned pets.
While the city was under siege, he handed over more than 200 animals to his owners’ cats, dogs, parrots and turtles. Helping any sentient creature in distress or suffering is a kindness.
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam! Great appreciate your comments & analyses.
Meanwhile, Bibi is cynically calling for the Iranian people to rise up & fight for their freedoms, while the IDF is humiliating their country.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: You’re welcome.
Bibi’s been making those video appeals published on social media for almost two years.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Professor Bigfoot
As ever, Adam, thank you.
Adam L Silverman
@Professor Bigfoot: You’re welcome.
Westyny
Thanks again, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jackie
The world is getting scarier by the day since the “pacifist president” took office.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Very educational. The Paydan Front sound terrifying. So much for ignoring the Israel/Iran shite show because I would like to remain sane. PS Fck Netanyahu.
Thank you Adam.