(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Air raid alerts are up, or going up, for all of eastern, northern, central, and parts of western Ukraine as of 2:20 AM local time in Ukraine/7:20 PM EDT.
More unintended cascading effects:
❗️Five Ukrainian citizens were killed in Bat Yam, Israel, by an Iranian missile strike. Three children are among the dead.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 12:08 PM
According to RBC-Ukraine, five Ukrainian citizens, including three minors, were killed in a massive Iranian attack on Israel.
Those damned drones found them even there.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 12:13 PM
This, however, is a very easily anticipated effect:
We were told the mineral deal would deter Russia from targeting U.S. businesses – something supposedly beneficial for both the U.S. and Ukraine. So what happened to that assumption? It seems Russia doesn’t care. No one takes tough talk seriously when it’s never backed by action.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 7:56 AM
“Russian strikes on American companies in Ukraine are yet another example of Putin’s disregard for US peace efforts,” Ukrainian foreign minister Andriy Sybiha told the FT. on.ft.com/3TnpFDN
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) June 15, 2025 at 7:51 AM
As is the case with the US-UK trade deal, whatever it is that was announced last week between the US and the PRC, this isn’t actually a deal as anyone would understand a negotiated agreement between two states. It’s a a piece of paper with a list of things printed on it that are never going to happen. The only thing these deals or agreements are good for is providing soothers to Susie Wiles that she can then provide to the President. Which is why you get delusional social media posts like this:
Trump’s new post about Israel and Iran:
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 9:59 AM
The Israelis do not have the capability, in terms of the penetrating ordnance, to actually seriously damage the hardened facilities of Iran’s nuclear program. They can reduce their conventional capabilities. They can damage some of the nuclear facilities, which will set the Iranians back weeks to a year, give or take. They can kill lots of military, political, and religious leaders, as well as scientists and technical subject matter experts. But in doing this last thing, all they’re doing is creating an opportunity for members of the most hardline Iranians – the Paydari Front – to take and/or consolidate more power.
Oh Canada!
The Ukrainian Canadian Community Welcome President Zelenskyy To Canada And The G7 Summit 🇨🇦 🇺🇦
Canada Has The Second-Largest Ukrainian Population Outside of Ukraine#cdnpoli #Canada 🍁 #CanadaSky #TeamCanada #CanadaProud #CanadaStrong #ElbowsUp
#Ukraine #UkraineStrong 🇺🇦 #SlavaUkraini 🌻🌻🌻
— Bruce D. Cowherd (@brucedc77.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 10:42 AM
From The Calgary Herald:
Members of Calgary’s Ukrainian community will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after his G7 appearance in southern Alberta, the local leader of the movement said Friday.
Article content
Ten people from across Canada, including the local group, will have an audience with Zelenskyy for up to an hour in an undisclosed location in Calgary on Tuesday, said Roman Yosyfiv, president of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress’s Calgary branch.“I’m not sure an hour is enough,” said Yosyfiv, who hails from Lviv in western Ukraine.
“With all my heart, I want to tell him we support Ukraine.”
The time and location of the meeting hasn’t been disclosed for obvious security reasons, he said.
When local Ukrainians heard earlier this year that Prime Minister Mark Carney had invited Zelenskyy to the G7 — being held Sunday to Tuesday at Kananaskis — the congress contacted the Ukrainian Embassy in Ottawa to request the meeting, said Yosyfiv. That meeting was confirmed three weeks ago, he said.
They will make their time with Zelenskyy a show of support and a reminder of how much their community has striven to push Canada to back the Ukrainian war effort through lobbying that’s included numerous public rallies in Calgary, he said.
Alberta has welcomed many Ukrainians who fled the war in their homeland. Last year, the provincial government said that number stood at more than 70,000 since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, with 33,000 of those settling in Calgary.
“We’ll tell him Canada supports him and Calgarians are doing a lot of rallies and making donations,” said Yosyfiv.
“We’ll ask him what else we can do.”
Ukrainian cities have come under increasing aerial bombardment in recent days, while Russian troops are making gradual advances in the country’s northeast.
But Yosyfiv said Zelenksyy’s been stout both militarily and diplomatically.
“He hasn’t bent to (U.S. President Donald) Trump or (Russian President Vladimir) Putin . . . he didn’t run away on the first day (of the full-scale war),” he said.
“He’s the best president ever, but he is, unfortunately, under very difficult circumstances.”
More at the link!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Putin Doesn’t Personally Need Peace, He Himself Is the War; Only a Real Cash Shortage Can Convince Russia to Be Less Dangerous to Its Neighbors – Address by the President
15 June 2025 – 22:53
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, our rescuers dealt with the aftermath of the Russian strike on the Poltava region – on Kremenchuk. It was a combined attack, deliberately and treacherously planned to target our civilian infrastructure – specifically, our energy facilities. The Russians used different missile types in this strike – cruise, ballistic, and air-launched ballistic missiles. They also used drones – Iranian Shahed drones – to complicate the work of our air defense systems. A significant number of missiles and drones were intercepted. No people were injured. However, unfortunately, energy infrastructure was damaged. This is Russia’s spit in the face of everything the international community is trying to do to stop this war. It happened right after Putin’s conversation with Trump. After the Americans asked us not to strike Russian energy facilities. At the same time as Putin tries to portray himself as a mediator for the Middle East and attempts to somehow assist his accomplices in Tehran. The level of cynicism is staggering… Every night, Russian strikes. Every day, we lose the lives of our people all across Ukraine – in the Kherson, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy regions – because of Russian shelling, because of this war that could have ended long ago if the world had reacted to Russia in a principled way instead of falling for its manipulation and lies.
Today, I held a meeting with our military and government officials to discuss the consequences of the attack on Ukraine’s energy sector and the steps needed to ensure our resilience. We have set specific tasks for the Minister of Energy, the Ministry of Defense, the military, and the Security Service of Ukraine. I thank everybody in the world who now pushes for the necessary sanctions against Russia. Sanctions against Russian oil and a proper oil price cap. A price cap that will actually hurt the Russian budget. Without that, Putin will continue to ignore everything the world is doing to bring peace. He doesn’t personally need peace, he himself is the war. Only a real cash shortage can convince Russia to be less dangerous to its neighbors.
A few more things.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is currently verifying information about our citizens in Israel and Iran. I am waiting for a report. Unfortunately, there are fatalities among Ukrainians in Israel – according to preliminary data, five Ukrainian citizens, including three children. There are also other civilian casualties. My condolences to all relatives and loved ones. We hope that the threat will pass as soon as possible.
And I want to recognize our employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – those who distinguished themselves in responding to the aftermath of Russian strikes on our energy sector. From the State Emergency Service in the Poltava region: Denys Mandrychenko, Oleksandr Zhuravel, Serhii Broslavskyi, Andrii Buniayev, Dmytro Vasenkov, Ruslan Onopriienko, Vadym Bodyk, Serhii Memetov, Volodymyr Spodarets, Oleksandr Helman, Ivan Perepadchenko, Vitalii Neborak, Roman Listrovyi – thank you, guys! And also the rescuers of the State Emergency Service in the Cherkasy region, who assisted in the Poltava region – Oleksandr Babichev and Vadym Lytvyn. Thank you to everyone working for Ukraine, working for Ukrainians. Thank you to everyone defending our country!
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Georgia’s 200th day of daily, nationwide protests is starting. 🇬🇪✊
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:32 AM
“Revoltion! Revolution!” ✊
Day 200 of daily nationwide protests in Georgia.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 1:32 PM
“Let the rotten Russian empire fall” — Day 200 of continuous protests in Georgia — Protesters burn Russian flag.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 2:40 PM
“Let the rotten Russian empire fall” — Protesters burn Russian flag.
The Video.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 200— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 2:44 PM
“Sanction Ivanishvili.” A permanent banner in front of the parliament. Students have been guarding this location 24/7 for 90+ days.
Day 200 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Day 200 of uninterrupted #GeorgiaProtests
“Revolution!”
📷 Tazo Makharadze
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 2:03 PM
📷 MOSE
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 2:05 PM
🗣️”The key thing at the moment is that it is clear that in #Georgia you are not going to get a fair trial. she hasn’t had due process yet; and really, what’s going to make the difference here is ensuring that the world is watching!”, –
@caoilfhionn.bsky.social about the case of Mzia Amaglobeli.— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 15, 2025 at 9:49 AM
🗣️”It’s very clear that Mzia’s arrest is unjust and unfair. She’s been punished disproportionately and it’s clear that that’s in retaliation for her work. .. it’s not just about Mzia, it’s about all Georgian journalists”, – @jodieginsberg.bsky.social, CEO of @pressfreedom.bsky.social.
#FreeMzia
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 15, 2025 at 2:10 PM
🗣️”while we are on the front lines, we remain on the front lines. and everything you do – not just Mzia: every journalist, every Georgian who stands up now – you’re not just protecting Georgian democracy, you are protecting democracy all around the world!” – @mariaressa.bsky.social.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 15, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Back to Ukraine.
The cost:
🐶🙏 Her eyes are full of longing and love, her paws tremble as they touch the cold ground. She lies down beside him, as if whispering farewell, and the wind gently embraces her, carrying the memory of his heroic soul into eternity.
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 4:24 PM
On this Father’s Day — eternal memory to all fallen fathers, and to all the men whose chance to become fathers was stolen — who made the ultimate sacrifice defending an entire generation of Ukrainian children from russian genocide. 💔🇺🇦
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Another 1,200 bodies have been returned to Ukraine, including fallen servicemen, according to the Coordination Headquarters.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 6:10 AM
The cost and the reason:
💙💛 36-year-old Oleksandr Zhavnenko, a soldier in Ukraine’s 12th Special Forces Brigade ‘Azov’, danced with his wife Marichka for the first time since losing both his legs in battle.
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 12:41 PM
The reason:
💙🤗 A heartwarming dance between a father and his beloved princess!
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 2:55 PM
❗️ Since early June, russia has launched around 2,800 drones, nearly 3,000 guided bombs, and 140 missiles against Ukraine, President Zelenskyy said.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Last night alone, russia attacked Ukraine with 183 Shahed drones & 11 missiles, incl Kinzhal, ballistic & cruise. The main target was the Poltava region, especially Kremenchuk.
Over this month, russia has already launched at us ~2,800 drones, ~3,000 glide bombs & 140 missiles. This is terrorism.
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 6:55 AM
Anti-Shahed drone produced by the @wildhornets.bsky.social
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Mi-24 helicopter intercepts a Shahed kamikaze drone launched by the Russians over Ukraine. t.me/YT29JTacRome…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 5:06 AM
A Ukrainian Shark reconnaissance drone helped destroy two Russian air defense systems — the Osa and Strela-10.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
UK intel: North Korea sent 11,000 troops to help Russia in Kursk—over half never came back
Kim Jong-un sent troops to back Putin in Kursk. UK intel says over 6,000 didn’t return.
euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/16/n…
— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 5:38 PM
From EuroMaidan Press:
More than 6,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed, wounded, or gone missing while fighting alongside Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to a new report from UK intelligence.
The British Ministry of Defence, in its 15 June intelligence update, states that around half of the estimated 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to the area have become casualties.
“Significant DPRK casualty rates have almost certainly been sustained primarily through large, highly attritional dismounted assaults,” the report said, pointing to intense and costly infantry engagements on the ground.
UK intelligence analysts believe these tactics are leading to unsustainable losses for North Korean units involved in front-line fighting.
On 4 June, Russia’s Security Council Secretary and former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea for the second time in three months. He met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, signaling deepening military coordination between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Shoigu is believed to be the Kremlin’s lead negotiator managing North Korea’s military support for Russia’s war effort against Ukraine.
As of mid-June, North Korea’s military activity remains limited to the Kursk direction. According to UK intelligence, any expansion beyond Russian borders—particularly into internationally recognized Ukrainian territory—would almost certainly require joint authorization from both Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un.
In April, a South Korean lawmaker citing intelligence sources reported that about 600 North Koreans had died in the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking in January, estimated that 4,000 North Korean troops had been killed or wounded.
Later, on 25 April, Ukraine’s General Staff announced that more than 4,500 North Korean troops had been neutralized since the launch of the Kursk offensive.
There’s a decent sized community of Ukrainians of Korean descent. I’m very curious if any of these DPRK soldiers are away enough of that community to try to get across enemy lines, across the Ukrainian borders, and make contact to defect. I also expect I’ll never known until or unless the Ukrainians themselves decide to publicize it.
Russian occupied Crimea:
Russia is turning a civilian airport in occupied Crimea into a military drone hub. Satellite images reveal launch pads, camouflage, and air defense gear.
www.kyivpost.com/post/54456
— Kyiv Post (@kyivpost.com) June 13, 2025 at 4:14 AM
From The Kyiv Post:
A civilian airport in the Russian-occupied city of Kerch is being converted into a military base likely for launching drones at Ukraine, according to a new investigation by Schemes, a project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Satellite images from Planet Labs show ongoing construction and military-style activity at the Kerch airport, which sits in eastern Crimea. The photos, compared between February and June 2025, reveal new fortifications and camouflage structures around the runway.
Aviation expert Anatoly Khrapchinsky told Schemes the changes suggest the airport is being prepared to host and launch Shahed-type kamikaze drones. These are the same kinds of drones Russia has used in frequent attacks on mainland Ukraine.
“This is probably a technical base for storing and launching UAVs,” Khrapchinsky said. He pointed to large camouflage tents visible in the satellite photos, likely used to hide drones or house air defense systems such as the Pantsir-S1 or Tor-M2.
Khrapchinsky said the runway length is already suitable for launching drones and noted new embankments on-site that may be future positions for anti-aircraft systems.
More at the link!
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv firefighters rescued a kitty after 3 days under the rubble. 😽
Just look at his humans’ faces!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 8:40 AM
To those visiting Kharkiv, the immediate impression is often one of profound resilience. They see a city that lives on, seemingly undeterred by the constant threat of bombs.
1/7
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
But for those of us who call this place home, the view is different. We see businesses closing, and streets growing quiet. The city we hold dear feels as if it’s slowly fading. We haven’t crossed the point of no return. Not yet.
2/7
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
We are left here, the ones who must stay to guard our homes, watch over family, or are simply too stubborn to let go of what remains. We are still here, but year after year, our opportunities slip away. There are countless homes that will never be built,
3/7
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
careers and education abandoned, families that will never begin.
We are chopping off pieces of ourselves, time and time again, afraid to stop and remember the people we were just a few years ago, because if we do, God, it will hurt.
4/7
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
All for survival. To save something.
But after all this time, I can’t even remember what we’re saving. What it felt like to dream, to want. To plan, oh, planning was beautiful. I loved it.
I miss having life, not just survive. Miss feeling happy about something.
5/7
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Miss being able to bring joy to the people I love.
Miss feeling safe at my own home.
Miss having future.
This is where an optimistic ending should go. Something about hope.
6/7
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
But this is not the post about ‘unbreakable Kharkiv’ and ‘strong Ukrainians’. This is where im telling you we are hurting and bleeding, and we should be helped, not endlessly patted on the shoulder for how well we take it.
7/7
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Kremenchuk:
Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s Kremenchuk tonight, using ~80 drones, Kalibr missiles, ballistic rockets, and Kinzhals, per Ukrainian news.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Kaliningrad, Russia:
Likely footage from Kaliningrad shows Ukraine’s HUR agents setting fire to a Russian substation that powered military infrastructure.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 5:31 AM
Yelabuga, Tatarstan, Russia:
Elabuga, Russia 👀 🔥
They manufacture drones that kill us here.
Please let it be a drone warehouse, please let it be a drone warehouse!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 8:51 AM
A Ukrainian A-22 “Flying Fox” drone with FAB bombs struck the Alabuga zone in Tatarstan, where Russia develops and builds Shahed-136 drones. One factory worker was killed, 13 injured. The site plays a key role in supplying attack UAVs for Russia’s war against Ukraine.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
From EuroMaidan Press:
On Sunday, Ukrainian drones targeted the city of Yelabuga in Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan, according to reports from Russian Telegram channels. The outlet Baza stated that one person was killed and 13 others were injured.
Tatarstan’s regional head, Rustam Minnikhanov, confirmed the attack. He said the deceased was a factory worker, and one of the injured remains in critical condition. Debris from the downed drones reportedly struck a checkpoint building at a local car factory.
Following the impact, a fire broke out near the Aurus and Sollers automotive plant buildings, Mediazona reported. In response, Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya, temporarily restricted flights at airports in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Izhevsk.
More at the link
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material:
💙😻 Therapy for the soul that brings happiness!
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 14, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Open thread!
williamrd – no kings protest el cajon ca
HinTN
That quote tells all about the response of the west. I don’t care how many weapons have been sent, there was a treaty that said we’d defend them in return for Ukraine giving up nukes. We fucking failed.
Adam L Silverman
@HinTN: Even if there wasn’t a treaty, it was in our self interest to do more. Even if that didn’t include train/advise/assist personnel on the ground or establishing and maintaining denial of flight to the Russians over Ukraine.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, can Russia defend that drone base in Crimea from ballistic missile attack? And have the Ukraine produced ballistic missiles that can do the job? They’ve hinted at this, but there are no confirmed reports that the HRIM-2 or any similar system is operational.
HinTN
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, sir! I have agreed with your assessment of our Nat Sec strategy from the get go. Thanks for sharing all this over all these years.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: I think it is in a geographically precarious place regardless of the weaponeering the Ukrainians might choose for a strike,
Adam L Silverman
@HinTN: You’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
YY_Sima Qian
The US’ reflexive covering for Israel’s strategic recklessness is taking away air defense & anti-ballistic missile munitions from Ukraine, & depleting precious stock of THAAD & SM3/6 missiles for any kind of great power war scenario w/ the PRC in the Western Pacific (when the PRC has a far larger & more sophisticated arsenal of ballistic & cruise missiles than Iran), missiles the US still has very limited production capacity (high dozens / yr).
Talk about strategic incoherence cutting across administrations. That “Pivot to Asia” has a lot of trouble getting beyond rhetoric, & what has been envisioned is far too militarized/securitized for a region still very much focused on economic development & integration.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Exactly. Even if the Biden administration’s senior nat-sec folks were only focused on the PRC as, in their words, “the pacing challenge,” the response in terms of doing very little to get the defense industrial base to increase production would be all the evidence of the strategic incoherence you’d need. You can’t “just in time delivery” the acquisitions and logistics during a war.
YY_Sima Qian
Now happening:
Heave knows what else are flying east w/ transponders off.
Let’s hope this is just for the Atlantic Trident ’25 exercises scheduled in Norway & Finland, but this seems to be far too large a deployment of resources, any assets participating in the upcoming exercise should have been in position, already.
BTW, I double Iran will consider the USAF hunting missile TELs in Iran to be “defensive”.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Thor Heyerdahl
A few examples of the strong Ukrainian history and cultural influence in Alberta:
Kalyna Country ecomuseum (Kalyna Country bills itself as the “World’s Largest Ecomuseum” at 20,000 square kilometers, or more than three times the size of Prince Edward Island. Its boundaries stretch across a broad area of Alberta east and north of Edmonton, including nearly all the areas traditionally considered part of Canada’s first Ukrainian Block Settlement, the Edna-Star colony.)
Giant Vegreville Pysanka (Completed in 1975. The egg is 31 ft (9 m) long and three and a half storeys high, weighing in at 2.5 t (5,512 lb). It is the second largest pysanka in the world.)
Ukrainian Cultural Heritage Village (an open-air museum that uses costumed historical interpreters to recreate pioneer settlements in east central Alberta, Canada, northeast and east of Edmonton. In particular it shows the lives of Ukrainian Canadian settlers from the years 1899 to 1930.)
I remember my first visit to Kyiv in 2000. We had perogies and cabbage rolls. I was asked if I liked it. Having grown up with Ukrainian cuisine in Alberta, I told my Ukrainian hosts that I felt a bit homesick.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: On the one hand, the trade war, the tech. war, the loose talks of Cold War, the salami slicing on quasi-official relations w/ Taiwan, & the grand talks of “3rd Offset Strategy” vis-a-vis the PRC, have all fed into the paranoia of the hawks in Beijing & spurred the PRC’s military modernization. On the other hand, the US remains overstretched & distracted by contingencies across the world (as the current order falls apart), & the actual military balance in the Western Pacific continues to trend unfavorably for the US. The reposition of forces, the hardening of facilities in WestPac, the expansion of the defense industrial base, are all happening at a lackadaisical pace, if happening at all.
This is not even considering the US’ hyper-militarized/securitized “Indo-Pacific” strategy is badly mismatched versus the interests & motivations of most of the regional players. Indeed, the growing economic nationalism & trade protectionism in the US are undermining what credibility/influence the US still had in the region, & the attempt to coerce US alliance/partners to decouple from the PRC is attempting to fight economic gravity.
Talk about the opposite of “speak softly & carry a big stick”.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Westyny
Thanks, as always, Adam. I wonder how long that converted airport in Crimea will remain viable?
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Thor Heyerdahl: It was because Chrystia Freeland, who was born in Alberta, of Ukrainian heritage, disagreed with Justin Trudeau over support for Ukraine, that the whole Liberal government fell, Trudeau resigned, and we had a snap election. Talk about unintended effects.
Joey Maloney
Thanks as always Adam. Your take on Israel vs Iran is pretty much as I suspected. So Bibi has started another unwinnable war to distract the Israeli public from his first unwinnable war to distract the Israeli public from his failure to prevent 10/7 which distracted the Israeli public from his attempts to consolidate power through a multiyear campaign to delegitimate civil institutions which distracted the Israeli public from revelations in his ongoing corruption trials which distracted the Israeli public from the shanda of building a governing coalition out of convicted terrorists, vicious bigots, and other assorted felons.
I think I have that right.
Aziz, light!
@YY_Sima Qian: Your keen insights are essential to my understanding of global affairs. Thank you for sharing them.
YY_Sima Qian
Worse, he is trying to get the U.S. to bail him out & fight the unwinnable war for him. But that’s nothing new, either.
YY_Sima Qian
@Aziz, light!: You are welcome, but I am just a rando on internet.
Joey Maloney
@YY_Sima Qian: And so far Trump is providing material support but refusing direct involvement, I’m guessing because no one’s offered him a big enough bribe either way.
Thor Heyerdahl
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: I think there was a healthy dose of political theater between Freeland and Trudeau across multiple issues. It kept Poilievre out of the PM role.
lowtechcyclist
‘All’ they’re doing? I figure radicals in control of Iran is Bibi’s goal: that’ll help keep him in power, just like it did with Hamas running Gaza. And if Israelis (and Ukrainians and other furriners present in Israel) die as a result, that’s not even merely an acceptable cost as far as Bibi is concerned – again, it’s a benefit to him in that it helps keep him in power. Hell, you know this better than I do.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: Update:
Refueling aircraft are to provide options for Trump to join in the air campaign against Iran.