No rain today, but most everywhere was too wet to mow most places, which was good, because I am feeling a bit sinusy and chesty for the past few days, so I spent much of the day napping. Now, I can not fall asleep, so I am watching Dept. Q on Netflix and really enjoying it.
Watching Trump slowly stumble into a full blown war with Iran reminds me of the Austin Power steamroller scene:
It’s just excruciating to watch.
Thanks to all for pitching in during our annual fundraiser.
War for Ukraine Day 1,210: The Cost
Mr. Bemused Senior
Hey, John, any chance of a further podcast with Brooke Harrington?
[ETA I’m very interested in her views on the international money laundering industry.]
piratedan
a plus one on Dept Q. Read the original novel (set in Denmark) and they’ve done a good job adapting it to a new location. They managed to keep the essence of the characters and their conflicts and while they’ve altered the story just a bit, its pretty faithful to the story as a whole.
one thing that I remember fondly from my youth in the mid-atlantic states was watching fireflies in the summer, kind of cool to see them once again.
just wondering how we organize the next peaceful demonstration where ten thousand people show up and citizen arrest everyone working for ICE. We can treat them the same way as they’ve treated everyone else, locked away without lawyers, in unspecified locations, without due process and no means of communication. Warrants, who needs them? We can simply state that we’re sovereign citizens and that their laws do not apply to us.
It’s a fantasy to be sure, but I only have so many vacation days I could allot to guard duty….
YY_Sima Qian
FFS:
YY_Sima Qian
A reminder of the inchoate dynamic in Iran that has been short circuited by the Israeli-Iranian War:
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: It is only a matter of time before citizens are targeted for this sort of shit: you don’t build the machinery to discover this about foreigners applying for visas/arriving by air, and then don’t bother to use it on citizens arriving by air.
They’re gonna do it.
When and if they do, I hope that all of us will make damn certain to tell every single person we know that it happened, and document the experience in as much detail as possible. I for one plan to do exactly that if it happens to me. I plan to take pen-and-paper in my backpack, so I will be able to document it all when they’ve taken away my devices.
Jackie
It appears FFOTUS has benched his Sec of Defense and his Director of National Intelligence while mulling his decision to, or not to, join Bebe in blowing Iran to smithereens.
Benching Hegseth and Gabbard is probably the wisest thing FFOTUS has done this term.
JoyceH
Earlier Trump seemed to be on the outs with Netanyahu. Someone with influence needs to whisper to Trump that Bibi is playing him for a chump and if he bombs, then he’s Bibi’s tool. It would even have the virtue of being true.
YY_Sima Qian
Israel’s maximal militarism will ultimately undermine its position in the region, & the enabling of such militarism by the U.S. & the major European powers will undermine theirs, too （gift link to NYT article below):
If Iran emerges badly weakened or fractured, & thus represent a much lower threat to the Sunni Arab countries in the region, then the logic of their détente/entente w/ Israel is greatly weakened, too, as is partnership w/ the U.S.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Sometime in my lifetime, Israel will be viewed by the rest of the world the way Apartheid South Africa was. It’s coming ….
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I am afraid that you are right. Even more sadly, Jews around the world will be targeted, too, by the Anti-Semites.
Matt McIrvin
@Jackie:
You’d think, but if they’re the ones keeping him out of a full-scale war, it could just be the trigger for something worse.
Sister Golden Bear
Well today was an trifecta of anti-trans shit.
As you’ve probably heard the Sinister Six upheld TN’s ban on trans healthcare for kids. Because they’re not blocking it for trans kids, you see, just for people with gender dysphoria. Just as the law in its infinite majesty bans both rich and poor from living under bridges. Or how pre-Loving bans on interracial marriage were fine because they prohibited both Black and white from marrying outside their race. By the same the logic, it would be fine to ban all treatments for limp dick would be legal because it would apply to both men and women.
There’s a lot of ways the decision could’ve been worse, e.g. they didn’t change the level of scrunity is to judge if something is anti-trans discrimination. But make no mistake, it’s a horrendous decision that will kill trans kids.
However, you probably didn’t hear that HHS just shut down a federally-funded suicide hotline for LGBTQ+. I usually try to moderate my words, because calling things what they are (i.e. it’s beginning stages of an attempted ethnic cleansing of trans people) usually results in cis people thinking I’m being hysterical. But make no mistake: They want LGB-and-especially-T people dead.
Then Chuck Schumer posted that the ruling was a diversion from the “real” issues. Because apparently trans people aren’t real people. Fuck you. Interestingly after getting ratio’d on both Bluesky and Twitter, he deleted it on Bluesky, but not on Twitter—where reportedly the majority of comments are by anti-trans bigots.
YY_Sima Qian
A recap of how we got here (gift link to FT article below):
Biden inexplicably failed to simply revive the JPCOA in his 4 years in office, when Iran had a relatively moderate government, & instead sought to squeeze more concessions from Iran, even though it was the US that unilaterally withdrew while Iran was still compliant. Iran responded by massively scaling up its uranium refining operation to gain its own leverage in the negotiations.
That too, is part of how we got here.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
Meaning what’s she’s written about.
Yeah, Cole, I’m not one of the people who’s entire world view is based on “I listened to a podcast” on whatever subject…but I have listened to your initial ones and yeah, the entire offshore money thing is something we all need to know more about from someone who knows wtf she’s talking about.
YY_Sima Qian
@Matt McIrvin: CENTCOM commander Gen. Kurilla seems to be trying to cement U.S. entry into the Israeli-Iranian War before he retires in a few months. Hence part of Bibi’s urgency to get the war on & spike the ongoing negotiations.
rikyrah
@Sister Golden Bear:
I honestly thought that they had shut down the hotline already. But, since the cruelty is the point…of course, they would do it during Pride Month😒😒😒
The abomination of the Supreme Court decision😠😠😠
YY_Sima Qian
Completely unsurprising:
Sister Golden Bear
On a personal note, unfortunately the company that had pursued me extremely aggressively — four business days from applying to doing a second round interview — let me know that I’m not going to the next round. Thanks for your support, it’ll be their loss.
But I’ve applied for 267 during the past month, and the results have been: This single interview, Three recruiters hit me up on LinkedIn to get my resume to submit to their clients—and then were never heard from again. It’s soul-crushing but not unexpected. The fact that I’m
seasonedold definitely seems to be a factor, and definitely seems to be a sign that my career in this field is over.Crosspalms
We just finished Department Q and loved it. My wife wants to know if everyone in Scotland is sarcastic (she has a few Scottish roots and a strong sarcastic streak…).
Ohio Mom
@YY_Sima Qian: That is very obvious to this Jew, and I am hardly alone, though it is verboten to say that in most Jewish circles.
Sister Golden Bear
@rikyrah: They announced in April they were going to do it, but today was when they actually closed it down. I’m entirely sure it’s intentional that they waited until Pride Month to do so (and I suspect the SCOTUS did the same on today’s anti-trans ruling).
prostratedragon
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@YY_Sima Qian: no, because the definition of anti-Semitism is going to be synonymous with criticisms of the Israeli government, anyone Jewish who criticizes Israel will be labeled a “self-hating anti-Semitic Jew,” and the term won’t mean anything whatsoever in terms of targeting individual Jewish people.
which, of course, will still happen, it will just be completely ignored because it doesn’t fit anyone’s prejudices, in the same way individual Asians were targeted for abuse during the Covid pandemic.
As noted above, already verboten in many Jewish circles…
Crosspalms
@Jackie: So he’s not listening to Larry and Moe, he’s listening to Curly and Shemp. OK.
YY_Sima Qian
@Ohio Mom: Bibi & the religio/ethno-nationalist reactionaries don’t seem to give a damn about the Jewish Diaspora, anyway.
dnfree
@YY_Sima Qian: There seem to be a number of issues Biden failed to act on that have come back to bite us.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chacal Charles Calthrop:
This is already happening, to a disturbing degree even in Europe, abetted by European governments. When it comes to Israel, the major Western powers have completely lost the plot.
YY_Sima Qian
@dnfree: Well, Adam L. Silverman has a long list. Both actions & inactions.
NotMax
I for one do not look forward to World War TACO.
//
Jackie
This is what we’re missing :-(
hotshoe
Dept Q:
This show was so gripping with such great characters and sub-plots and twists that I stayed up long into the night watching it.
BUT
If you figure you’re prepared going in, knowing it is a tense mystery — you still might not be prepared for the unending trauma of the main victim which Chloe Pirrie makes all too believable. Grim grim grim watching.
And if you’re me, you might spend a lifetime regretting having seen that one episode which involves the innocent teenage son being threatened.
For all its suffering and violent deaths, there’s enough good to compensate. The gushing reviews are correct: this is amazing work.
Just … be warned.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Iran is 30% short of having uranium as a weapon.
They are on point, for not having to buy nuclear power generation fuel from France or ruZZia at the cost of billons of dollars, as mandated by the defunct JPCOA.
Omnes Omnibus
@dnfree: Yes, it is true that he did not solve all of our problems by himself in four years.
Lyrebird
@Jackie: Thanks for posting this.
A good man and a great president.
Jay
Keep plugging away.
I got my job at The Orange, despite getting tossed into the round file, because they couldn’t hire any one.
So the DS dug into the round file, and I got an interview.
I got the job because I could spell carburetor.
Parfigliano
@YY_Sima Qian: That’s why Israel attacked Iran. The last thing Israel wants is a functioning peaceful Iran accepted by the international community.
prostratedragon
Random commentary:
SpaceUnit
Too Wet To Mow would make a great Dead Kennedys song.
Raoul Paste
@Omnes Omnibus: Glad you weighed in.
Marge: “You know, Homer, it’s easy to criticize.”
Homer: “Fun, too!”
Gretchen
@Sister Golden Bear: I’m sorry. I can’t say anything helpful here but I’m sorry that they’re missing out on what you could contribute. It stinks. That’s all.
cmorenc
@Jackie:
I know, the context is weighing options in the Israel-Iran conflict, but it would sure be nice if Trump also benched RFK Jr.
Trivia Man
New music (to me) today – jesse welles and “Great Caucasian God”. Modern day protest song with twangy folk style guitar
Jackie
From the paywalled NYT. But we get the message.
Trivia Man
@Trivia Man: another recent song of his “my billionaire daddies are fighting” about muskrat snd the orange man
BlueGuitarist
@Trivia Man:
Jesse Welles, No Kings
https://youtu.be/kWG0K3Y8ZU8?si=VH7udsESo1DhcXKu
and bluegrass hip hop group Gangstagrass, No Kings in the USA
https://youtu.be/2d5LQs8dC3A?si=NQDKsepkKPc7XuEY
MaryRC
@Crosspalms: I could watch an entire series of DCS Moira snarling things like “I shudder to think of you as a child” or “If it isn’t the enabling members of Team Doolalley”. She needs her own spin-off.
Jackie
From a surprising source? “This is wrong”
danielx
Every day is worse and worse almost by the hour. It’s breaking my spirit.
prostratedragon
@BlueGuitarist: Gangstagrass👍👍👍
Shalimar
It’s June. She was confirmed in February. I know it seems like this year has already lasted for decades, but she has only been in her position for a few months. There is no period in this interminable presidency that was before recent. He gets predictably sick of people really quickly.
prostratedragon
Isn’t there some Proud Boys affiliate whose jniform is Hawaiian-type shirts?
Shalimar
@Jackie: They’re also cutting suicide prevention for veterans: Cutting veterans’ suicide prevention programs in the name of efficiency is a fatal mistake
Apparently the Trump administration is pro-suicide.
Chetan Murthy
@prostratedragon: the Boogaloo Boys
geg6
@Omnes Omnibus:
Haters gonna hate, hate, hate. Myself, I miss him. Desperately.
YY_Sima Qian
@Omnes Omnibus: Unlike in many other areas, reviving the JPCOA was very much in the Biden Administration’s control.
geg6
@danielx:
It’s what they want. Don’t let them.
Jackie
@Shalimar:
Sickening. Republicans are only pro life when they force brain dead women to be incubators.
Omnes Omnibus
@YY_Sima Qian: Be that as it may and I am not saying that his administration made no mistakes, but I am not going to pile blame on Biden for not fixing everything that Trump broke.
cain
@Matt McIrvin:
Pete’s busy launching a war against U.S. cities. He’s building up troops just like the way Putin was with Ukraine.
He’s going to light the fuse and he’s going to murder U.S .citizens.
KrackenJack
@Sister Golden Bear:
Sorry to hear that. It is crushing. A private equity firm bought out the consulting company that worked for. In the past two years, they’ve laid off everyone that I know over the age of 50. I was in the first round. Over 100 applications and one interview. Lots of fake listings and scammers. Just have to hope for the best and keep plugging away.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@geg6: I get the sentiment, but advice like “don’t let them break your spirit” is a bit like telling someone who’s just been thrown off a roof that they should try not to hit the ground … it’s not always a matter of conscious choice.
Sally
I quite enjoyed Dept Q, but thought it was a bit stereotyped. You know, the grizzled and disgruntled, traumatised detective, just back to work from sick leave. Sort of Dr House character. The ditzy redhead who turned out to be smarter than everyone thought. The quiet assassin Syrian migrant, with a tragic backstory, and a life saver in more ways than one. It grated on me a bit. Plenty of twists and turns, and I like in the UK shows that you never know who is going to die – they are happy to kill off the main (and popular) characters (Spooks). I will watch season 2 when it comes out.
Omnes Omnibus
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: How about, “ Buck up, little camper”? Does that work better?
strange visitor (from another planet)
jews in america have JUST been targeted THREE TIMES (that we know of) by jew-haters who were acting in the name of gazans and thinking american jews run IDF.
Steve in the ATL
@Trivia Man: twangy? Fine, but jangly remains the official guitar sound of B-J!
scav
Move fast. Keep breaking things.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@scav: Ouch. And what’s worse is that apparently they had the tank farm for fueling that rocket right near the pad (something NASA knew not to do something like three generations ago). So when the rocket blew, all the fuel sitting in those tanks went up as well.
“Move fast and break things”, indeed.
JWR
Wow, Dems fighting back! (You go girls!)
Baud
@YY_Sima Qian:
Wouldn’t Iran have to agree to it?
Baud
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Okay, the rocket Xploded, but it’s fully self driving.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
How was the water hole?
Baud
Elon has a lot of catching up to do.
Geminid
@Baud: The Biden administration participated in a series of negotiations with Iran in Vienna, along with France, Germany and the UK, that explored the possibility of reviving the JCPOA. They went on for most of a year, but reached an impasse when the three European nations deemed Iran’s proposed terms insufficient.
These negotiations never got much attention, partly because they produced no result, but also because most people never pay attention to Middle East problems unless and until there’s a hot war going on.
Baud
@Geminid:
Thank you for the info.
ETA: This is why we need kings.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: Fabulous! It was hot and muggy yesterday, so jumping into the cool water was incredibly refreshing. The water is so clear! It’s a first magnitude spring, meaning it pumps out a high volume of water.
The spring is surrounded by submerged limestone you can stand on, depths ranging from waist to neck deep. From there, if you swim past the outcropping to the center of the spring (about 50 feet deep, I think), it feels like flying.
We saw a few fish and turtles. No gators!
Layer8Problem
@Betty Cracker: Damn, that sounds nice. Glad you had a great time!
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Very nice.
MagdaInBlack
@Betty Cracker: Sounds like a heavenly place to spend the day =-)
Professor Bigfoot
@Betty Cracker: That’s awesome! Good on you guys!
Betty Cracker
Here’s a pic:
MagdaInBlack
@Betty Cracker: Yup. Heavenly.
prostratedragon
@Baud:
Video of the “major amomaly.”
prostratedragon
@Betty Cracker: That looks wonderful.
Professor Bigfoot
@Betty Cracker: ENVY! ENVY! ENVY!
Love ya, but omg the ENVY I’m feeling right now… ;^D
prostratedragon
@scav: Just saw this one. Worth playing at reduced speed.
frosty
@Steve in the ATL: Seconded. Jangly is SO much better than twangy!
sab
@Professor Bigfoot: When you are in Canton OH in August with unpleasant high 80s, low 90s, remember she will be in Florida with humidity and temperatures well above that. Plus gators and poisonous snakes turbocharged by warm weather.
Florida is flat but very beautiful, but almost Australia as far as scary critters.
stinger
@Omnes Omnibus:
This.
stinger
@Betty Cracker: Oh, how wonderful!
stinger
@Geminid:
Thank you; I, too, didn’t hear about this.
Denali5
@hotshoe: Too grim for me. And I have a Scottish friend.
Denali5
@geg6:
I miss him too.
YY_Sima Qian
@Baud: Iran was in compliance w/ the JPCOA terms when Trump unilaterally exited the deal in mid-’18. Beyond that, Trump 45 imposed additional sanctions on Iran as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign to force Iran to make concessions on its regional “Axis of Resistance” activities & the ballistic missile build up, which were out of scope of the JPCOA. Iran kept to JPCOA for a about year in the hope that the general structure of the deal (rolling back the uranium enrichment program for sanctions relief & economic investment) could be sustained by the EU, Russia & the PRC. However, Trump 45 imposed additional sanctions on Iran w/ extraterritorial enforcement (as is the case w/ all US sanctions), which made it very difficult for European (& even Chinese) companies to invest in Iran, much to Iran’s bitter disappointment. So, from late ’19 Iran resumed uranium enrichment activities, & beyond the JPCOA mandated 3.67% level. In the end, the “maximum pressure” campaign was a miserable failure that did not secure any additional concessions from Iran, & w/ Iran out of compliance.
At the start of the Biden term, plenty of regional experts advised the the administration to unconditionally return to the JPCOA (since it was the US that breached the terms 1st by its unilateral exit & subsequent sanctions). However, Biden & his FP team decided that Trump 45’s “maximum pressure” campaign provided “leverage” that they did not want to surrender. Biden wanted Iran to return to strict compliance of JPCOA before the US would provide sanctions relief, while Iran wanted the US to remove the new sanctions that Trump 45 had imposed before returning to JPCOA compliance.
The Biden team too wanted to wring more concessions out of Iran (on IRGC activities & the ballistic missile program) that had been out of scope for the JPCOA, even though that strategy had already failed during Trump 45. I guess the Biden Team thought getting the EU to more closely align w/ the US would make the difference. All the while, successive governments in Israel continued to pressure the US against returning to the JPCOA, & sabotage & assassination operations (likely conducted by Israel) further fueled Iranian paranoia.
Unfortunately, by Jun. ’21, the relatively moderate government Rouhani & Zarif was replaced by the far more hardline Raisi government, & the precious window for a quick return to the JPCOA closed. Raisi upped Iranian demands during the negotiations in response to the “maximum pressure”, adding items out of scope from the original deal, such as removing designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, & the 2 sides were moving farther & farther apart. Negotiations stalled for the rest of the Biden term. In the meantime, Iran massively increased its centrifuge fleet & its enrichment of uranium, far beyond the level when the JPCOA was originally signed. The contest of wills only made the situation more volatile.
There is a parallel to Biden’s policy on the PRC. Trump 45 had kicked off trade & tech wars against the PRC, & made Great Power Competition w/ PRC the central organizing principle of the US’ National Security Strategy. During the last few weeks of the Trump 45 term, they prepared poison pills for the incoming Biden Administration on PRC policy, such as designating human rights abuses in Xinjiang a “genocide” (there was & is no evidence for genocide, though strong circumstantial evidence for crime against humanity in the late ’10s), touching Beijing’s red lines on relations w/ Taiwan taking on the trappings of “official”, almost sending the Ambassador to the UN to Taiwan, ending the Fulbright Scholarship & the Peace Corps programs in the PRC (never reestablished), shutting the PRC Consulate in Houston (& the US Consulate in Chengdu was shut in retaliation, neither has reopened), etc. Much to many’s surprise, the Biden team embraced most of these poison pills.
Many Dem politicians & FP technocrats supported a more hawkish turn vis-a-vis the PRC, but there was unease w/ the extent that the Trump 45 Administration pursued it, & the trade war in particular was widely criticized. Plenty of PRC/Asia experts urged Biden to end the trade war & put limits on the Great Power Competition. Not a return to the perceived “naiveté” of Engagement Era, but more balanced than what the Trump 45 gang was doing. Instead, Biden & his FP/trade policy team decided that the tech war was vital to US national security, that Trump was right to pivot the US to a posture of Great Power Competition vis-a-vis the PRC, & that the trade war gave US “leverage” to extract concessions from the PRC (even though Trump’s trade war had already failed miserably on this score). The Sino-US relation started ice cold w/ a bitter contentious meeting in Anchorage in Mar. ’21, while the COVID-19 Pandemic still raged. Blinken & Sullivan openly stated before the meeting that they would approach their PRC counterparts from a “position of strength”, which stimulated a nasty nationalistic response. Instead of engaging w/ the PRC, Biden team spent most of the 1st 2 years trying to get US allies, partners & neutral countries to join a constraint/containment program against the PRC, so that the US can continue to be in a “position of strength” vis-a-vis the PRC.
However, Biden’s strategy in the ‘Indo-Pacific” was far too militarized & securitized relative to the primary motivations of the region’s countries, same as Obama’s (& Trump 45’s, & now Trump 47’s). The only countries that more or less aligned w/ Biden’s PRC strategy were Japan, Taiwan, Australia & the Philippines (once Marcos , Jr. replaced Duterte), even then not fully, while the prospect of a Sino-US Cold War filled everyone else w/ dread. The economic initiatives (such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework) all petered out w/o a whimper. Predictably, the trade war never secure any concessions from the PRC. The tech war that started off as “small garden high wall” saw the garden predictably expand ever larger, & the wall ever taller, which impeded the PRC’s technological development in select areas in the short term, while spurring the PRC to overcome its coordinations & develop indigenous alternatives & de-Americanize on tech.
It took Biden & Xi nearly 2 years to get around to try to stabilize the relationship, by then it had been poisoned considerably by the trade/tech wars & Great Power Competition. The effort itself was stop & start, hostage to unforeseen events (spy balloon!) & escalations from either side.
Finally, of course, Trump’s return upended any such stabilization effort altogether.