Great work, WaPo:
Yeah, because Trump is at the top of his game and relying on someone equally stupid but less publicly erratic than Gabbard and Hegseth.
Come for the politics, stay for the snark.
If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.
Republicans do not pay their debts.
Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?
Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.
The worst democrat is better than the best republican.
Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.
When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.
Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.
Technically true, but collectively nonsense
DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.
Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”
The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.
“But what about the lurkers?”
Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.
The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.
I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.
Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.
Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!
The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.
Peak wingnut was a lie.
Good lord, these people are nuts.
People are weird.
Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.
… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop
Belafon
People like Rubio and Huckabee.
Lapassionara
I think Trump is probably consulting with Putin daily, or close to it. Putin is likely advising against a strike, but Trump may not be able to resist dropping “the mother of all bombs” sometime during his regime. What a total nightmare.
Baud
Has there been a single headline yet talking about what Trump is “trying” to do?
That was a staple of the Biden years.
Baud
@Lapassionara:
I hate that Putin might be our ally here.
Baud
Baud
Baud
Lapassionara
@Baud: Me too.
twbrandt
Since when were Hegseth and Gabbard “stars”?
Baud
Baud
@twbrandt:
Hegseth had a Fox News show.
twbrandt
@Baud: Oh right.
frosty
@Baud: Do we know they were ICE agents? Did they have to show the Dodgers their ID and badges?
Baud
I wonder if Trump has enough balls to revoke Ohtani’s visa.
Suzanne
Ever since I read the spurious gossip that Gabbard and Sinema dated for a while, I have fantasized about yeeting them both into a volcano. Together.
frosty
@Baud: No, but I’m sure Miller does. Ohtani would be a good test of who’s really in charge.
Scout211
The judicial branch continues to follow the law. ABC
Defamation of ordinary citizens is now within the scope of the role of president?
ETA: Also, too, aren’t all of his previous attorneys working for DOJ now?
Anne Laurie
@Baud: Hand to god (Murphy), I just prepped a post referencing that!…
Harrison Wesley
I have to give Trump credit. I didn’t think it was possible to overrun the USA with so much despicable activity in such a short time. To quote the old war movie,”where do we get such men?”
Jackie
@Baud:
Miller, Noem, and Border Czar Homan are swinging for the fences. I hope MLB and ALL pro sports unite and keep those assholes away.
Betty Cracker
@Suzanne: Wait, WHAT?
They Call Me Noni
@Baud: How petty.
Jeffro
@Baud: would love to see the commissioner of MLB come out with a “baseball games are ICE-free zones” but obvs not holding my breath
danielx
@Scout211:
Why yes, yes it is, considering the number of ordinary and extraordinary citizens he abuses on a frequent basis. See Springsteen, Bruce, Swift, Taylor, etc etc.
They Call Me Noni
@Betty Cracker: Yes, please do spill the tea!
danielx
@Suzanne:
Tell us more!
Jeffro
@Harrison Wesley: he has surrounded himself with the dregs of humanity, people who could not get a job in any other administration (or any other occupation, for that matter)
between the incompetence, malice, and grift, it’s really spectacular and by ‘spectacular’ I mean that it blows even MY mind
needs much more coverage and attention, that’s for sure…there’s not a decent and/or knowledgeable and/or un-corrupt person in the bunch
Ruckus
@twbrandt:
1 There are stars for great positive performances.
2 There are stars for great failure performances.
Guess which line defines shitforbrains and his cabinet.
Unless one is medically brain dead they are going to choose #2
And supporting him should be a known symptom of brain death.
Jeffro
OT but only slightly: I was kidding around on BlueSky about trying to keep up with a #resistancefit, ie, what would a complete anti-trump protest outfit look like at this point?
From top to bottom:
– Dodgers ballcap
– Harvard t-shirt
– cargo shorts with a copy of the Constitution and receipts from Penzeys in the pockets
– blue/yellow tennis shoes (for Ukraine)
– while eating a TACO and listening to Green Day or Springsteen
right? =)
Harrison Wesley
@Jeffro: I have full confidence that Our Liberal Media will be all over it. Maybe ten or fifteen years from now.
JaySinWa
@danielx:
jonas
@twbrandt: Trump saw them on Fox bashing Democrats, so that made them “stars” in his mind. It’s the word “power” that’s doing a lot of lifting in that sentence.
A more honest headline would be “Trump’s inner circle acknowledges Hegseth and Gabbard are fucking jokes and security risks; exclude them from serious Iran discussions in WH.”
Suzanne
@Betty Cracker: I read about a year ago that they had dated for a while. Actually seems plausible. Grifty grifters are attracted to one another, I’m sure.
I should note that I have no idea if this is, you know, true. But it feels true, and that’s the same thing.
ETA: Apparently Sinema has been hiring Gabbard’s sister’s company for her private security?!
Ruckus
@Harrison Wesley:
He has a lot of help. And a system that gives him a lot of power with little structure of his limitations. A person of his limited, well everything, should not be in this office, it’s too important to millions of human beings. It just astounds me that an almost non human being gets to play the game of president. Actually if it was only a game…..
Ruckus
@Harrison Wesley:
Also.
We get such humans
OK, even I cannot type what I know and want to type.
trollhattan
All those folks with hands-on time with the GBU-57.
Which BTW is the One Weird Trick all this kerfuffle is revolving around.
Related: does the USAF risk losing a B-2 over Iran? Never happen? See F-117 over the Balkans.
WTFGhost
@Lapassionara: Actually, he did get to use the original MOAB, which was a fuel-air explosive that was the largest non-nuclear bomb at the time. To the surprise of no one, it just made a big boom.
The bunker buster is a different sort of object, precision made to drop through the earth as deep as possible, before releasing its charge. I don’t know how big the charge is, but, I don’t think you could make enough conventional boom to out-do the fuel-air MOAB.
The problem is, Iran has the enrichment facility down so far that it looks like you’d need to “robin hood,” one bomb into the target, the other hitting where the first bomb’s butt would have been, had it not blown up (like the legend of Robin Hood splitting an arrow). Then you might do some real damage… or, you might just collapse a bunch of tunnels, and cause the need for a lot of excavation.
One complicating factor is, only the B2 can drop this bomb, it’s too big for the F/A type planes we have that can carry *some* bombs and missiles, and, as mentioned above, even two perfect shots, right down the center, might not be enough.
I’m hoping that Trump realizes that attack Iran would require both work (which gets a huge BOO from him), and thinking (which gets a big OBO out of him, because he also can’t spell).
Scout211
@Suzanne: I could find no evidence in my search, even AI. But this came up from 2023 in many stories. I remember the security contractor and the payments that were suspect under campaign finance laws, but not that the contractor was Tulsi Gabbard’s sister.
So it’s irresponsible not to speculate that it was the sister.
JaySinWa
@Suzanne: Ah Truthyness.
All in the family:
https://www.alternet.org/kyrsten-sinema-2659457754/
ETA Jinx @Scout211:
kindness
Dumping my WaPo subscription last fall is only getting better and better! Fuck Bezos.
Jay
Word from the insiders of the Politburo on the Potomac is that TACO Don is being “advised” on Iran by Faux News.
trollhattan
@Ruckus:
Trump 1.0 trolled Mittens dangling SoS in his face during a photo-op meal, leaves him dangling.
Trump 2.0 does same to Li’l Marco and gives him the damn job anyway.
Progress? Suppose I’d rather have Mittens there than Marco, the tiny sycophant’s sycophant.
Another Scott
@Suzanne: Made me look.
FEC.gov – Gabbard – Sinema Joint Victory Fund (from 2013-2014).
Hmmm…
DARRYL TATTRIE – Treasurer.
FEC says Darryl didn’t follow the FEC filing rules for another PAC (2 page .pdf)
Hmm…
Best wishes,
Scott.
trollhattan
@Jay:
Rupert’s still got it. Lucky us.
Miki
Jeebus – If this is what passes for “thought,” we are doomed.
Suzanne
@Scout211: I read that spurious gossip on Xhitter, and I have seen it a few times. So only FSM knows if it is true.
In my volcano-yeeting fantasy, they go together. It feels more cinematic that way.
WTFGhost
@Baud: he only has balls when the count is 0-2, through 2-3. Of course, you have to wonder how many pitchers would find it impossible not to try to bean him.
JaySinWa
@Miki: Two weeks is the new TACO time.
Jay
https://bsky.app/profile/mollyknight.bsky.social/post/3lry7awb6322y
Harrison Wesley
@Ruckus: I apologize. I shouldn’t have referenced The Bridges at Toko-ri.
Betty Cracker
That WaPo headline sucks, but credit to WaPo columnist Philip Bump, who does a pretty good job of exposing fascist lies. In a piece today he debunks ICE claims that its agent need to run around in street clothes with no ID for their own safety. (Gift link)
ICE agents rolling up in street clothes, masks and “tactical” gear, refusing to present warrants and IDs, etc., seem like a bright red line to me. We just can’t allow kidnapping people off the street under those circumstances to be “normalized.”
@Suzanne: It does have a truthy quality, and yeah, birds of a feather, etc.
Anotherlurker
@WTFGhost: how much fun would it be to see trump face Bob Gibson?
trollhattan
Do they follow this policy in stand your ground states? Asking for a friend.
Suzanne
@Betty Cracker: Masked goons snatching people off the street? With no accountability? Fuck no.
Lapassionara
@WTFGhost: thank you. That’s helpful to know.
Harrison Wesley
@trollhattan: Of course. That’s why they only target working people. You go after a genuine criminal who might have a gun….hey,a man could get hurt.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro: Stop trying to revive cargo shorts. They are not ant never were a valid style choice. They may be practical, but that is another matter.
Soprano2
@Baud: That’s how they talk about Democrats in general, always “trying” do to things, a framing that implies failure. This is IMHO part of the reason people think Democrats are weak.
Miki
@Omnes Omnibus: Unless one of those pockets holds dental floss they are not practical.
Geminid
@Miki: Axios’s Barak Ravid gives a fuller of White House thinking– such as it is– regarding Iran in an article posted three hours ago titled, “Trump to decide on Iran action within two weeks, White House says”:
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/19/trump-iran-strike-two-weeks-israel
This is not investigative reporting. Ravid is conveying the story as his White sources gave it, and he makes no bones about that. Ravid’s reporting is valuable nonetheless, and journalists of every stripe, from all over the Middle East and elswhere, cite his “scoops” in their own reporting.
Ravid repeated significant information from a story yesterday:
Araghchi is heading for Switzerland soon:
The article finished with: “This story is breaking now. Please check back for updates.”
cain
@Lapassionara:
He’s probably itching to kill some brown people and show them who is boss. He wants the press to be talking to him every day about how many brown people he killed.
Our media is going to give him all the attention because they are a bunch of fucking assholes.
Geminid
@Geminid: That should read, “Axios’s Barak Ravid gives a fuller *account*….”
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: hey hey whoa WHOA now
I don’t own a pair (anymore) but I am thinking about tracking them down and getting a couple pairs! As you noted, they’re just too practical, and all I care about is having many pockets at festivals and when kayaking
Miki
@Geminid: Have you googled “Trump Two Weeks”? It’s a place holder that means nothing.
Dithering is not deliberating (that “sic” is legit).
IMO, the guy (and his babysitters) is/are overwhelmed by the shit he’s shat and the shit shat by his alleged buddies.
A big plane with a big bomb isn’t unlikely (double negatives are fair game now).
I’ve lost the ability to digest wishful thinking. Sorry.
cain
@Baud: why would you hold this event in the U.S. anyways? This is exactly what would happen. Entire countries not able to qualify for Olympics because of racism.
So ashamed of this country.
WaterGirl
@Baud: He has a concept of a plan, of course!
mappy!
@Baud: We have to wait 2 weeks. Or maybe it was 90 days.
(It would help to scroll up before clicking. Ah, well. Two weeks. Taco-Two-Weeks)
evodevo
@Scout211:
Alina Habba is…I’ve lost track of which of his many trials involved her.
Bex
@Jay: I heard that his advice is coming from Laura Loonatic these days.
Geminid
@Miki: Where is the wishful thinking? Are you saying Aranghchi won’t meet with the European foreign ministers tomorrow? Or that Witkoff and Aranchi have not in communication? Or that none of this matters, like it’s just some Kabuki play created in order for us to project our scorn onto Donald Trump?
And why should I google “Trump Two Weeks?” I’ve already seen that facile trope twice today. It’s apparently very popular among Americans, and I’ve even seen a Middle Eastern commentator repeat it– but as a refence, not some definitive truism. The Arab, Israeli and Turkish reporters I’m following take these decisions more seriously, and think about them in greater depth, than most Americans do.
And from what I’ve seen, they have a more cleared-eyed view of Donald Trump than most people here have. They’re not looking at him through the lens of American politics, because it’s not all about us.
They also know there’s a lot more to this war than whether or when Trump brings the US in. This is already the most intense war the region has seen this century. Bush’s stupid Iraq war was bigger, the Syrian civil war cost more lives, but this is a very intense and violent war even without the US stepping in. So people in that region watch it in a way we do not.
cmorenc
@Suzanne:
The more precise, concise adjective for what you are getting at here is “truthy”.
AWOL
@Suzanne: They’re great at scissoring—with sharp, metal objects
cmorenc
@Jay:
Thankfully, Trump seems to have opted for “TACO” mode on the decision whether to drop the bunker-buster bomb on Iran, and has decided to punt the decision for two weeks, purportedly to try to restart the negotiations which Bibi deliberately timed his initial attack two days before the original start-date for negotiations, to preemptively derail them before they could happen. The obvious risk with Trump’s TACO move for a two-week delay try to restart negotiations is that Bibi will be sorely tempted to make another preemptive aggressive attack to preempt the restart from happening. Trump would then be back to square one, needing to make a much quicker decision than he’d like, and will be sorely tempted to drop the bomb to prove he’s a manly man and not a girly-man, or especially not a trans-man or trans-girly..
Geminid
@Miki: Also, this isn’t dithering. Trump and his team want Iran’s leadership to make a very tough choice, one that will take them more than 48 hours to decide upon.
A short deadline would guarantee a “No,.” The idea is to give them enough time to get to “Yes,” as in “Yes, we will agree to the proposal forwarded by Witkoff two weeks ago, with a few minor, face-saving revisions.”
I thought this two week timeline was a good idea. I don’t think it will take that long though. Iran is under a lot of pressure, and they can’t hurt the Israelis enough to make make them let up. The US is the only country that can stop Israel, and the US won’t do that unless and until Iran accepts a nuclear deal on the US’s terms.
And if it turns out Iran won’t fold, a ten day delay in blowing up the Fordow plant isn’t going to make that much difference. But it’s worth trying to get them to “Yes.”
Miki
@Geminid: Stop.
I am not saying I don’t take the threat seriously (I deliberately did not repeat the TACO trope for precisely that reason).
BUT I’ve watched the Orange Mussolini “negotiate” these “deals” for long enough to feel fairly confident that he’s predominantly full of shit and will impulsively jerk off whenever and why ever he decides he has to act.
As a highly educated almost-70 yr old white woman, I am arguably mostly safe from literal fall out from that impulsivity. I get that. That colors my perspective, obviously. But it doesn’t make my eye-rolls wrong.
Miki
@Geminid: I absolutely believe that Israel is not going to back off, Iran is not going to fold, and Trump will not honor a 2 week or any other pause before blowing up Fordow.
Geminid
@Miki: Well, I’m glad somebody knows what’s gonna happen here! Although I guess you didn’t predict what was gonna happen, just how it would happen: stupidly on Trump’s part.
But if you are actually interested in this problem, I suggest you follow reporting on the foreign ministers’ meeting in Geneva tomorrow. Nothing will actually be decided, but it will be very relevant background. Reuters and AgenceFrance-Presse should be good sources, and there’s always the BBC and The Guardian.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: The wild card here is Israeli efforts to spike the negotiations:
Can’t take Iranian claims at face value, but it would be on brand for Bibi.
Israel killed the chief Iranian negotiator in the initial round of strikes, & the entire surprising bombing campaign was intended to short circuit the US-Iranian negotiations.
Geminid
@Miki: Well, that’s a definite prediction that you’ll get to see prove out or not.
But I’m not so certain that Iran won’t fold. The men running the Islamic Republic have a lot to lose here, a lot more than a nuclear program they never really needed to begin with.
Something Fabulous
@Jeffro: Kirkland (Costco!) brand shorts and I think you’ve got it!
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Israel did not kill Iran’s chief negotiator in the first round of strikes. Foreign Minister Abbas Aranghchi has led negotiations with the U.S. from the first meeting in Oman two months ago until the most recent one. Aranghchi is Iran’s chief negotiator.
The man you’re talking about, Ali Shamkhani, advised Supreme Leader Khameini in this area. He may have been a policy maker and a spokesman, but he was not a negotiator much less chief negotiator. Shamkani was Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council for ten years and that’s a very powerful position, but he was replaced two years ago.
I don’t know how closely you have followed reporting on these negotiations, but I watched them intently from the beginning and my impression was that they had hit an impasse, and that if the meeting scheduled for last Sunday had come off it would have a short one, just long enough for Witkoff to reiterate his last proposal that Iran had rejected earlier that week, and give Aranghchi an ultimatum.
That was my thinking before Israel attacked. I don’t know this for certain, but I’m pretty certain the stories I’ve heard since Israel attacked, that we’d been on the verge of a deal, are bogus.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I stand corrected, but I saw reporting that Ali Shamkhani was driving the internal deliberations in Iran on the negotiations, & that Araghchi is just the person who has to talk to the “barbarians”.
No, I don’t think the US & Iran was on the verge of the deal last Sunday, & the reporting at the time indeed suggested that the negotiations was heading toward an impasse, between the US demand of zero enrichment & Iranian bottom line of some enrichment. However, the negotiations had not completely broken down, yet, & I don’t know why Bibi would not wait for a few days for it to break down before launching the surprising bombing campaign. It would have given Israel a bit more justification.
Of course, IIRC, the parameters under negotiation had at some point allowed some enrichment by Iran (similar to the JPCOA), which raised expectations (including w/in Israel) that a deal could be reached quickly. However, the Trump Administrations vacillated on whether to insist on the maximalist zero enrichment demand. When Trump settled on zero enrichment, it was widely expected that the negotiations would become stalled. I’ve also seen suggested that it was Bibi who convinced Trump to finally settle on the maximalist zero enrichment demand, knowing that such demand would scuttle negotiations.
I agree that it is not impossible for Khamenei to choose to “drink the poison”, given Iran’s current weak position. However, that kind of deal under extreme duress will not likely last. Furthermore, the majority opinion among the ME analysts I am following is that Israel’s aim vis-a-vis Iran is now regime change & fragmentation, not denuclearization. Bibi has shown the ability to undermine any such deals, & Trump is too easily influenced by vanity. Will Bibi be satisfied even w/ zero enrichment? He needs constant wars & crises to stay out of jail.
Jim Appleton
@YY_Sima Qian: You’re well sourced.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I’ve seen the reporting that Israel’s political leadership seeks regime change and I suspect they do right now. So does former CENTCOM commander Kenneth McKenzie, whose remarks at a Middle East Institute forum were qoted by Laura Rozen:
But I think that regime change and/or fragmentation are not achievable goals. I expect Israel’s intelligence service understands this already, and I think that Israel’s leaders will understand this before long, when the exhiliration wears off and they realize they cannot afford a long war. Neither side can.
I think the Israelis will also realize that in the short term, their aggression forcloses regime change because patriotism will outweigh discontent. The danger to the regime will come after the war, when Iranians demand an accounting for national treasure squandered through decades of a misguided and disastrous foreign policy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I read the Laura Rozen tweet, too. The rational analysis would suggest that regime change in Iran is not possible w/o boots on the ground, & neither Israel nor the US are interested or capable of occupying Iran. However, both Israel & the US are preparing options & assets for raiding activities, specifically aimed at destroying Fordow w/ greater certainty of success. Murphy’s inevitable involvement can get things out of hand.
Furthermore, Bibi’s primary motivation is staying out of jail. An Iranian “surrender” on zero enrichment does not help him stay out of jail. I expect that he will do everything he can to prevent Iran from surrendering (at least wrt to the nuclear program). Even if a deal is reached, he would be strongly motivated to launch attacks on one pretext or another, especially now that Iran’s ability to retaliate against & impose cost on Israeli militarism is increasingly limited.
Even if the theocratic regime agrees to zero enrichment & retrench from regional interventions (which it can no longer afford anyway), it will want to modernize its military & restock its ballistic missile arsenal, to serve as deterrence against future Israeli or US attacks & insurance for regime security. It will have the means to do so from its oil export, & its strong human capital (if properly utilized). Bibi & the Israeli security establishment will continue to see that as an “existential threat”, or at least claim as such.
BTW, I see reporting that the IAEA believes there are now enough unaccounted for uranium to make ~ 10 bombs, if further enriched from 60%. Deal or not, Iran will be highly motivated to hold on to those materials for future bombs or radiological weapons.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: As for the “majority opinion” of the Middle East experts you follow being that Israel’s aim is now regime change and not denuclearization, I’ll point out that Israel is still hitting sites that are part of Iran’s very extensive nuclear program, as well as missile and drone production facilities; also, the missiles themselves. These experts would have their audience believe that these are now ancillary goals, but they’re not. They are as important now as they were seven days ago.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Israel is also hitting Iranian state TV & police headquarters, not relevant to the nuclear program.
So far, all of Israel’s strikes have set back the Iranian nuclear program by a few months, & badly damaging Fordow (from US strike) might delay it by a year or so, based on estimations of folks such as James Acton, Jeffrey Lewis & Ankit Panda, as well as reporting on US intelligence assessments.
To halt the nuclear program on a sustained basis, absent a deal, requires either occupation or regime collapse. Otherwise, the US & Israel will start to run out of the necessary munitions eventually, certainly to the point of weakening the US’ posture in the “Indo-Pacific” to unacceptable levels. The US’ mobilization of the military industrial base has been rather lackluster. Iran can still choose to try to outlast the US & Israel.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: The Iranians were highly motivated to produce that ten bombs worth of U-235 to begin with. They sank a huge amount of resources into that nuclear program, much more than any nation would for any peaceful purpose or as a bargaining chip. That program was always intended for weapons production. I know people want to deny this, but to me it’s as plain as day
Personally, I think Israel’s decision to attack was a bad one. And I put a question mark next to anything Benjamin Netanyahu does because of his self-interest and mendacity. And obviously, if Trump hadn’t left the JCPOA we wouldn’t be in this mess to begin with.
But Netanyahu’s bad faith and Trump’s blunder don’t require me to give the Islamic Republic a pass. They chose to make an enemy out of a much smaller nation 800 miles away that posed no threat to Iran. They kept a region of 300 million people in turmoil and bloody strife for decades in order to expell seven million of them. And their nuclear program was an integral part of this destructive strategy.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I know about about the internal security targets. My point is that this war has not just become all one bad thing even if Israel’s critics would like their audience to believe it is.
I see a lot Western commentators building cases to fight in the court of public opinion. That may be why I prefer reading Turkish reporters like Ragip Soylu and Levent Kemal. I learn as much or more from them as from the others, and I don’t feel like I’m being lawyered.
As for the Islamic Republic choosing to outlast Israel and the US, Levent Kemal wrote something two days ago that I took seriously:
This was just a snapshot three days into the war. But Levent Kemal is a level-headed guy and not a partisan of either side in this war. And unless he’s a bullshitter– and I don’t believe he is– Kemal has contacts among Iranian security officials. So while this is not evidence the regime will collapse, I count it as evidence it could collapse. That is a reason Iran’s leaders might to decide to give Trump what he wants, so that the Islamic Republic can live to fight another day.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: No argument on Iran’s past bad faith actions & militarism over the decades. No one needs to or should give it a pass.
However, its actions since agreeing to the JPCOA in 2015, & certainly since 10/7/23, have been distinctly risk averse. It had chosen tit-for-tat retaliations, eschewing opportunities for escalation even when pushed extremely hard (US assassination of Suleimani in Iraq, Israeli assassination of IRGC generals in a diplomatic mission in Damascus, Israeli assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran), or even as its “Axis of Resistance” was coming undone (ultimately, Iran did not act in any meaningful way to aid Hamas, Hezbollah or the Assad regime as they were being pummeled by Israel or domestic opposition). It also sought détente w/ the Sunni Arab states, who hoped to manage the Iranian threat by bringing into the regional fold. Khamenei has repeated chosen “strategic patience”, perhaps deterred by the memories of Iran-Iraq War.
For the past few years, at least, I would say Israel under Bibi has been the more disruptive actor in the region, & will remain the more disruptive player going forward. Then there is the US, under GWB or Trump, has been utterly calamitous. Iran (& everyone else in the region) have repeated underestimated the willingness by Bibi (& the Israeli security apparatus) to embrace risk in the wake of 10/7/23.
Iran can still play a very disruptive role, such as in Ukraine by selling drones to Russia for hard cash, but the so called new “Axis of Evil” (Russia, Iran, North Korea, & the PRC) was & is not an alliance at all. Iran bought Russian weapons that Putin has yet to deliver (& may never deliver). Iran mostly spurned Chinese weaponry (to its detriment, given how poorly Russian gear have performed in Ukraine & how well some Chinese gear have recently in Pakistan). The much ballyhooed 25 yrs-US$ 400B economic agreement w/ the PRC has mostly been vaporware. Neither Russia nor the PRC have aided Iran in its current moment of peril, beyond rhetorical support. Indeed, one gets the sense that the technocrats in the Iranian government prefer to wait for economic normalization w/ the West, as opposed to integration w/ the PRC, the theocrats are arrogantly autarkic, & the IRGC is just interested in enriching itself.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I am following both Ragıp Soylu & Levent Kemal. The former is certainly convinced that Bibi’s current war aim in Iran is regime change & state fragmentation. I’ve read that tweet by Kemal, & from other observers saying similar things, but the regime will only collapse if the population turns on it, & right now the population’s anger is pointed outward.
Barney
@Belafon: Yeah, Rubio really is one of the four “experienced” employees that the WP is hanging its hopes on. The others are:
Vance (no, stop laughing! Or are you crying?)
Dan Caine (the first chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to have never served at the rank of four-star general or four-star admiral before assuming the position, and you have to wonder if that was because he wasn’t competent enough to be a 4 star general – he had, however, said to Trump “I love you, sir. I think you’re great, sir. I’ll kill for you, sir”. It’s not recorded if he had tears in his eyes.)
John Ratcliffe (US House Rep for 5 years, Director of National Intelligence for 8 months from May 2020.)
That’s the brains trust that must navigate a Middle Eastern war.
We’re fucked.
Barney
@cain: The visas were for training in the USA (where some team members already are), rather than the tournament itself, which is in Ivory Coast in July: Senegal women’s basketball training in US cancelled after visas rejected – BBC News
So they still can qualify for the Olympics. Whether they and staff will then be allowed in is still up in the air, I guess.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Those IRGC generals killed in Damascus were not on a diplomatic mission. That was a military mission to coordinate the next phase of their war against Israel, their repression of the Syrian opposition, and their subversion of Jordan.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: By “diplomatic mission” I meant they were killed while in the Iranian Consular Annex of the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, which was a protected location as Israel & Iran were not formally at war.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Sorry, I did not read your comment carefully.
There were technical questions as to whether that building was in fact a consular building. But my attitude is, Consulates are as Consulates do. That meeting had nothing to do with a diplomatic purpose. It was a war planning session in the middle of a war.
The Iranians could complain to the Syrian government that they were not afforded the protection due them under the Vienna Convention, but Assad’s people could reply, “We may have let your guys meet there, but we did not make them meet there.”
Miki
““Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”
Wut? You mean he lied? You mean leaving time for diplomacy wasn’t a legit goal when he puked out this bullshit?
I never believed Bush’s WMD and I will never believe Trump’s faux peace shit.