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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 1,214: Ukraine’s Defense Continues Regardless of Where the World’s Attention Is at the Moment

War for Ukraine Day 1,214: Ukraine’s Defense Continues Regardless of Where the World’s Attention Is at the Moment

by Adam L Silverman|  June 22, 20259:56 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Don’t forget: russia is waging a genocidal war against Ukraine.
Right now.
Still.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM

As the world focuses on the escalating war between Israel and Iran, the war in Ukraine has not paused. Russia continues its brutal campaign, targeting civilians. These images, taken and shared with us by volunteer Jana, show the aftermath of recent strikes in Pokrovsk area

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 8:24 PM

Which is why air raid alerts are up for all of north central Ukraine to eastern Ukraine at 3:40 AM local time/8:40 PM EDT and the air raid alert maps are indicating that Russian guided aerial bombs have been launched at Ukrainian targets in both Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.

We are expecting to be hit with 200-250 russian drones tonight. Over 90 are already in Ukrainian air space.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 3:59 PM

The cost:

Another similar horrific case of the Ukrainian defender dying less than a month after returning home. Valerii Zelenskyy from the Luhansk oblast spent three years in russian captivity. He couldn’t recover from the inhuman treatment there.

[image or embed]

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:29 AM

Before we continue, just a quick note regarding the ongoing strategic mess involving the US, Israel, and Iran. From statements made by Bibi, his Defense and Foreign Ministers, and other members of his extremist governing coalition, we know that Israel has two strategic objectives: 1) destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and 2) regime change. Neither of these can be accomplished by Israel. Neither of them can be accomplished by Airpower. Not even by US Airpower. Frankly, it is NOT possible by a combination of Airpower and Landpower. As I wrote in 2018, Iran is a human geography trap that would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a kid’s party. Israel has no ability to project its own Landpower into Iran. The land component of the IDF is exhausted. It is designed for no more than 90 days of continuous operation once the reserves are called up. It has now been operating for over twenty months in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. About a week or so ago another group of Israeli Air Force reservists resigned in protest of what Bibi and his extremist coalition government is doing. We know that the US is not good at undertaking the type of operations that would be required to undertake regime change through boots on the ground. We don’t have the bodies and I suspect that with the exception of the British, we wouldn’t be able to put together a multinational coalition to help this time.

As I’ve also written before, a proper translation of Long Dead Carl’s maxim is that “war is politics with other means.” Bibi has been trying to get the US to undertake regime change in the US since the early 1980s. And to go to war with Iran on his behalf because Iran is “a year away from having a nuclear weapon” since 1995. We’ve all seen the video clips and montages of Bibi making these statements in English. Sometimes before Congress. Bibi has a vision for the Middle East. One that can only be accomplished by politics with other means. And he would prefer that the bill be paid not in Israeli blood and treasure, but in America’s dearest currency. Hamas’s attack on 7 OCT 2023 combined with the extremist governing coalition he has built, Biden’s inability to realistically see and understand what Bibi was doing, and now Trump’s return to the presidency have provided Bibi with the opportunity he has long sought. An opportunity that he was taught by his father to believe is his destiny to seize. Bibi’s megalomaniacal belief that he is a world historic figure and the only legitimate leader of Israel and world Jewry is not an achievable strategic objective. It isn’t a strategic objective at all. Whether last night’s US strike on Iran is really a one off or more strikes will eventually happen, there’s no achievable strategic objectives for the US to achieve here or to help the Israelis achieve. There’s just more politics with other means.

Speaking of:

Zelenskyy: We have evidence Russians are preparing military operations in Europe.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 9:37 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

There Must Be No Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World – Address by the President

22 June 2025 – 22:45

Dear Ukrainians!

It was an eventful day. At this moment, rescue operations are still ongoing in Kramatorsk at the site of a Russian strike. Aerial bombs – right on the city, right on residential buildings. People were trapped under the rubble. All necessary emergency services were deployed. As of now, it is known that four people were injured – including a child. Tragically, four people were killed in this Russian attack. My condolences go out to all families and loved ones. I am also expecting a full report on the consequences and all circumstances of the Russian missile strike on a training ground in the south of Ukraine. This strike took place today. Unfortunately, it is not the first such attack. Tragically, there are killed and wounded. Full accountability is required.

Today, I had an extended conversation with Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko – in particular, about the protection of our positions on the front line and the use of our drones by the units of the National Guard of Ukraine. Today, I also spoke with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Everything must be set up in a systematic way so that Russian drones – Russian reconnaissance drones – are destroyed, and destroyed as swiftly as possible. This week, I will also speak separately with partners about additional funding for the production of interceptor drones. Interceptors, frontline drones, fiber-optic drones, and all types of drones used to strike targets on Russian territory must be funded in a way that delivers real impact. This will be ensured – and we’ve already secured preliminary agreements with some of our partners, particularly a number of European countries.

Today, Norway’s Minister of Defense visited Ukraine. A decision has been reached to invest $400 million in our production – new funding, primarily for drones. We are working together to create all the necessary conditions to produce air defense systems in Ukraine – jointly with partners, jointly with Norway. Steps in that direction are being taken. An office has already been opened in Ukraine by one of Europe’s largest defense companies – Norway’s largest, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. We are expediting all processes to the maximum extent. Today, I also received detailed reports from our intelligence services – the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and the Foreign Intelligence Service. First and foremost, they concerned Russia’s intentions and our defense against them. The key objective Moscow is pursuing is to undermine sanctions. They are using all available methods to bargain not only to prevent new sanctions from being imposed, but also to weaken existing ones. We understand how and whom they use in Europe and other parts of the world. We are countering these efforts. I thank everyone who advances the sanctions agenda, despite everything. Because this is the agenda that brings peace closer.

One more thing. Today, I received reports on the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region, following U.S. strikes on facilities linked to the Iranian regime’s nuclear program. A regime that has done so much to bail out Putin. Right now, new waves of “Shahed” drones are in the skies over Ukraine. We all clearly remember where Russia got such weapons. Iran’s decisions to support Russia have brought massive destruction and devastating human losses to our country, and to many others. This truly must stop. And it must absolutely not be reinforced with nuclear weapons. There must be no proliferation of nuclear weapons in the modern world. This must be emphasized. It is important that there is American resolve on this, the resolve of President Trump. It must also be stressed that diplomacy has to start working. Working everywhere: in the Middle East, in the Gulf region, and here in Europe – in Ukraine. If Putin spurns every peace proposal, including those from the United States, it’s hardly surprising that Tehran is also rebuffing them for now. But all of them must feel what real international solidarity means, and that any spread of terror is unacceptable. What is needed is real, lasting security – truly reliable security. Thank you to everyone helping bring it about. Thank you to everyone standing with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 207 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked once again. ✅

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM

Day 207 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked once again. ✅

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM

Two young women are hospitalized after a car deliberately ran over peaceful protesters this evening in Tbilisi.

Has happened quite a lot in Serbia but I don’t recall this in Georgia before.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM

Georgian activist Saba Baghdavadze was just released after serving 30 days in jail—for firing a firework into the sky. Hugging him is the sister of the judge who sentenced him. 🥹

🎥 Dodie Kharkheli

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:04 PM

Two young women are hospitalized after a car deliberately ran over peaceful protesters this evening in Tbilisi.

Has happened quite a lot in Serbia but I don’t recall this in Georgia before.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM

🇺🇸 This morning, Trump confirmed U.S. strikes on 3 key nuclear sites in Iran.

🇬🇪 GD’s illegitimate govt stays silent.

Last summer, PM Kobakhidze stood at Iran’s inauguration – as “Death to the U.S., Death to Israel” echoed – and also attended the ex-president’s funeral.

📌Video archive: TV Pirveli

[image or embed]

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 22, 2025 at 6:01 AM

Germany:

German aid helps Ukraine develop hypersonic missile able to destroy Russian bunkers up to 300 km behind the front.

Germany’s €5 billion aid package funded the Hrim-2’s domestic development, which has a payload double that of the US-supplied ATACMS.
euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/23/f…

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:00 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

Here, as Ukraine ramps up its long-range strike capabilities, a breakthrough is taking shape, with German funding powering Ukraine’s first hypersonic missile launch. Backed by a five-billion-euro defense package, Ukraine’s Hrim-2 [thunder in Ukrainian] hypersonic missile is now entering serial production, marking a bold new chapter in Ukraine’s ability to hit deep behind Russian lines.

Ukraine has officially announced the development of its own domestically produced ballistic missile, the HRIM-2. After over a decade of delayed progress due to funding issues, the missile system is now entering serial production, accelerated by international military and financial support since the start of the full-scale war.

Notably, Germany has provided a new five-billion-euro defense package, which includes significant investments in the domestic production of Ukrainian long-range weapon systems, including the development and production of the new ballistic missile. This aid enabled the Ukrainians not only to develop the missile but also to initiate serial production of the Hrim-2 immediately after its development.

Notably, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also announced that they had already conducted a successful field test of the missile. Ukrainians shared footage of this strike, adding that it was used to destroy a Russian command post on the east bank of the Dnipro River delta. This means that the Hrim-2 system is combat-tested and fully operational, opening the possibility of an increased number of similar precision strikes against Russian military targets deep behind the frontline.

The Hrim-2 is launched from a specialized ground vehicle that fires it into the air using a solid propellant rocket engine, before following a set ballistic trajectory towards a stationary target. The Hrim-2 has an operational range of 300 kilometers and can reach speeds of up to Mach 5.2, or nearly 1.8 kilometers per second, making it a hypersonic missile.

The 400-kilogram warhead allows for the destruction of hardened bunkers, logistics hubs, airbases, and ammunition depots, especially because these are stationary targets that are easy to trace. The capability of Hrim-2 to carry a heavy warhead for strikes within a 300-kilometer range marks a major leap forward for the Ukrainian precision strike capabilities, as the warhead is twice as big as that of Atacms, which Ukrainians were previously dependent on for similar precision strikes.

Interestingly, these capabilities bring it comparably close to the Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, which have a similar payload of around 400 kilograms, while the Ukrainian Hrim-2 might soon catch up with or even exceed the Russians’ range of 400 kilometers as development continues.

The fact that it is launched from a mobile transport vehicle gives Ukrainians the ability to quickly move to a firing position, fire the missile hundreds of kilometers away from the frontline, and pull back before the Russians can strike back. Its immense speed of 1.8kilometers per second is nearly twice as fast as the Atacms, and allows it to strike at its maximum range in under 3 minutes.

Furthermore, while Russian air defenses like the S-300 and S-400 are able to intercept targets at this speed on paper, as a missile enters the hypersonic range, a successful interception becomes increasingly unlikely. 

The fact that the Hrim-2 ballistic missile is a completely domestic product of the Ukrainian military industry, without a reliance on foreign components, makes it possible to quickly produce and fire in large numbers, costing 3 million US dollars, or 2.6 million euros, a piece.

More at the link.

Norway:

Do you also love Norway as much as I do?

A friend in need is a REAL FRIEND. 🇺🇦♥️🇳🇴

[image or embed]

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:57 PM

Back to Ukraine.

Interception of the Russian Shahed by the Ukrainian Mi-24.
t.me/YT29JTacRome…

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM

Kyiv:

Fascist Russian/Iranian Shahed attack drones (red arrows) converging on Kyiv. Going by previous attacks, there’s a strong possibility of a follow-up missile attack later on, though I haven’t seen any reports of bombers in the air. Most likely it would be ballistics.

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 7:19 PM

Warning of ballistic missile attack on Kyiv: Just heard three air bursts… then a fourth, loud enough to set off car alarms. And another three air bursts… another loud blast, more car alarms. Reports of more launches of ballistics…

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 7:35 PM

In the Kyiv region, private houses are on fire in different areas following the russian drone and missile attack 🤬

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 8:00 PM

Fascist Russian attack on Kyiv now: A drone approaches; then, far off, you hear the howl of a siren on another drone as it enters its attack dive, like a Nazi dive-bomber, and the loud blast as it hits. The Doppler effect meanwhile indicates the nearby drone is heading away…

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:02 PM

Kharkiv:

Russian drone just flew by, and I didn’t hear it until it was right above 🫥 they seem to be flying high again.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:02 PM

Kramatorsk:

4 bodies were recovered from the rubble in Kramatorsk after yet another Russian strike on the city last night. Search and rescue effort continues.

Russia continues its relentless campaign of bombing Ukrainian cities and killing civilians every single day!

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:52 PM

Andriivka, Sumy Oblast:’

Ukrainian Forces liberate Andriivka in Sumy Region counteroffensive #Ukraine

[image or embed]

— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) June 22, 2025 at 11:04 AM

From UA Wire:

Ukrainian armed forces have launched a counteroffensive in the Sumy region, successfully liberating the village of Andriivka from Russian troops. According to analysts from DeepState, the village has been cleared of Russian troops and is now back under Ukrainian control.

As recently as Saturday, June 21, Andriivka—located in the Khotin municipal community of the Sumy district and just 5 km from the Russian border—was still under Russian control. Now, the 3.89 square km area has been fully liberated, marking a crucial victory for Ukrainian forces.

DeepState reports that after prolonged battles and clearance operations, soldiers from the 225th Independent Assault Regiment took control of the village. These strategic actions also served to divert Russian forces from other settlements, halting further Russian advancement towards Khotin and Pysarivka. Following the victory, Ukraine deployed the 110th Independent Mechanized Brigade named after General Khourunzhyi Marko Bezruchko to secure the area.

In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have repelled 17 attacks from invaders on the North-Slobozhansk and Kursk directions, according to the General Staff. The Russians launched 12 airstrikes and used 26 guided aerial bombs, along with 260 artillery strikes, eight from multiple launch rocket systems.

At the same time, Senior Lieutenant “Alex” of the Ukrainian Defense Forces notes that despite the liberation of Andriivka, challenges remain. “Andiivka is liberated but the situation has not become easier. As I said, this is Volchansk direction 2.0,” the military officer emphasized.

More at the link.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

2xAASM Hammer strike on Russian target, Kursk region. t.me/BaluHUB777/1…

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:10 PM

The Zaporizhzhia front:

Russian Fuel train on the Zaporizhzhia front targeted by FPV drones.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:37 AM

Another video shows a burning Russian train with fuel tanks for the army in Zaporizhzhia region.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:50 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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    31Comments

    1. 1.

      Hildebrand

      June 22, 2025 at 10:01 pm

      OT – A good friend believes Tom Friedman to be bang on about the Middle East (and specifically the bombing of Iran) – what points do i make to refute this knavery?

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 22, 2025 at 10:10 pm

      @Hildebrand: Explain to him Friedman’s work from 2003 on about Iraq.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Jay

      June 22, 2025 at 10:11 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      lashonharangue

      June 22, 2025 at 10:26 pm

      Thanks Adam. I have seen reports that Iran was notified before the strikes and removed the enriched uranium. If true, how hard would it be for them to smuggle it to North Korea and get a few working nukes in exchange? Apparently getting from 60% to weapons grade isn’t that challenging. Seems like Kim might think that was a good bargain. Normally I would think that dispersing it in Iran would be a better move but with the Mossad so active on the ground maybe Iran would think otherwise.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 22, 2025 at 10:29 pm

      @Jay: @lashonharangue: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 22, 2025 at 10:30 pm

      @lashonharangue: Based on the news reporting, they had been moving stuff for days ahead of the warning. They don’t need North Korea’s help. They have all the technical expertise to do this on their own. If they decide to do so.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Geminid

      June 22, 2025 at 10:31 pm

      @Hildebrand: That’s a hot take. Tom Friedman doesn’t know where this situation is headed. Plenty of people think they know, but we won’t know for days or weeks if then. And we won’t know the long-term consequences for years.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      piratedan

      June 22, 2025 at 10:34 pm

      now that Bibi has roped DJT into logging shots at Iran, and the scuttlebutt that Putin informed the Iranians to move their shit before the bombs fell, how successful can it be to logistically move all of that shit at a moments notice and this is presuming that bombs were actually launched and this is all just a giant keyfabe or that we’ve symbolically just bombed empty business parks and the like.  Knowing that anyone dropping bombs from above can seriously disrupt your tech and manufacturing base, how comfy is Putin having a significant arms supplier now under a attack?  Especially so by a pawn, that he helped elect?

       

      Granted, it doesn’t have to make sense, but going with the stupidest answer is the most likely, is someone else running the Presidency, even though he’s shown himself to be under the sway of whoever is last to speak to him from within his inner circle of incompetence… How many foreign factors are within our national pie, we have Putin, Bibi, the evangelists, the white nationalists, and knows how many other separate players?

      Is this cynically just another distraction from his disastrous immigration policy?  his craptacular Bill in Congress or any number of other failures (economy, DOGE, legal challenges)?

      Reply
    9. 9.

      HinTN

      June 22, 2025 at 10:49 pm

      @Adam L Silverman:

      If they decide to do so.

      And that’s been the crux of the biscuit since the US under President Obama developed the agreement and the Iranians signed it, has it not?

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Jay

      June 22, 2025 at 10:50 pm

      @piratedan:

      When you process uranium through a centrifuge, the metal, motors, wiring and computers get irradiated. If you blow up that centrifuge, you release irradiated particles and get a radiation release. No, 0 , zero radiation releases have been detected, so, there is a high probability that everything was moved and the targets were given a deep clean.

      The IRGC Intelligence spokesman said yesterday to Fars News, that they started emptying the facilities in March.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      HinTN

      June 22, 2025 at 10:52 pm

      @piratedan:

      how comfy is Putin having a significant arms supplier now under a attack?

      Ruzzia has been developing their internal Shahed production capability as fast as they can.

      Also too, not comfy at all.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Bill Arnold

      June 22, 2025 at 10:54 pm

      @Adam L Silverman:
      Agreed.
      Some of an outline I put together to clarify my own thoughts:

      If the Iranians decide to break out, one path is that they would (probably) announce leaving the NPT, then do the final separation work (i.e. a small hidden centrifuge line or two, with solid and very paranoid OPSEC) needed to remove most of the rest of the U-238 from that 60% stockpile. (aka enrichment to 90+ percent U-235.)
      Gun-type bombs (U-235 only) do not require testing (Hiroshima was the test in 1945), and boosting them to e.g. 30 kilotons (with tritium) is well-understood (late 1940s tech). (That is from some internet discussions on boosting of gun bombs, not classified info, obviously.)
      Delivery mechanism would be deliberately unclear; e.g. Israel has some cities on the coast.,
      Then Israel loses its regional sole-nuclear-power hegemony, and has to start worrying about what several 30KT devices would do to Israel. And the Iranian theocrats worry a little less about regime change.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      HinTN

      June 22, 2025 at 10:54 pm

      @Jay: Not surprising.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Harrison Wesley

      June 22, 2025 at 10:55 pm

      Adam, I appreciate the insights you bring. I wish human relations across the globe were getting better, but I’m apparently looking in the wrong direction.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      HinTN

      June 22, 2025 at 10:59 pm

      @Bill Arnold: Would they target Jerusalem, Tel Aviv or exclusively military targets? I’m surmising military only, but I welcome Adam’s take.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Jay

      June 22, 2025 at 11:00 pm

      @HinTN:

      Iran’s Fatwa against nuclear weapons still stands.

      The JPCOA limited Iran to 3% enrichment, and required that they send that uranium to France or ruZZia for reprocessing to 60% for Iran’s 4 fast breeder reactors. (Iran has lot’s of uranium).

      Paying for shipment, enrichment, security costs, cost Iran tens of billions of dollars a year. But they stuck to it, until TACO Don bailed. 6 months later they started their own enrichment program. After all, with out the US, the JPCOA is worthless.

      Most of Iran’s electricity is provided by natural gas generators. Their plan was to switch to green energy, (hydro, wind, solar) and nuclear. Despite increasing electrical power by 52% since 2000, Iran is still plagued with rolling black outs.

      Other than the usual issues, Iran is still an NPT signatory and works with the IAEA.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      AlaskaReader

      June 22, 2025 at 11:00 pm

      Thanks Adam

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 22, 2025 at 11:27 pm

      @HinTN: Yep.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 22, 2025 at 11:31 pm

      @Bill Arnold: If they break out, they’re not going to use one on Israel. The Iranian government despite being revolutionary reactionaries are exceedingly small c conservative. They’re looking for deterrence and they were looking for a bargaining chip to get in from the cold. Now they’re probably just looking for deterrence.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      Eolirin

      June 22, 2025 at 11:31 pm

      If we really wanted regime change we should be backing the protest movements, something that’s going to be really hard to do successfully if we make Iranian civilians hate us.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 22, 2025 at 11:32 pm

      @Harrison Wesley: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      YY_Sima Qian

      June 22, 2025 at 11:33 pm

      Adam, you made the below comment on BlueSky in relation to WSJ reporting that 70% of the USAF’s GBU-57 inventory was expended during Operation Midnight Hammer:

      Silverman on Security ‪@silvermansecurity.bsky.social‬
      Two is one and one is none. North Korea and the PRC will be very happy to read the Wall Street Journal’s reporting.

      I am curious why you think the PRC would care one way or the other (NK I understand). Isn’t the rapid ongoing expansion of the PRC’s nuclear triad started a few years ago precisely to make the PRC’s 2nd strike capability much less vulnerable to a conventional strike. Furthermore, the rapid modernization of the PLAAF & the build out of the dense IADS would place even the survivability of B2s into question.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Adam L Silverman

      June 22, 2025 at 11:33 pm

      @AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      Eolirin

      June 22, 2025 at 11:36 pm

      @Adam L Silverman: At what point is deterrence going to end up meaningless unless a country proves it’s willing to actually use its nukes?

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Westyny

      June 23, 2025 at 12:16 am

      Thanks, as always, Adam.  And glad you’re offering some of your sober clarity on our stupidity in Iran.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      MinuteMan

      June 23, 2025 at 12:33 am

      “war is politics with other means.”

      That strikes me as a very poor translation. A fairly literal translation of the original would be “War is a mere continuation of politics with other means” and I have trouble seeing much difference between using “with” or “by” there. (The translation of prepositions is fairly tricky.) So I think the pithier “War is the continuation of politics by other means” sounds a bit better and means pretty much the same thing.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      catfishncod

      June 23, 2025 at 5:34 am

      As always, thanks Adam.

      Iran has expended or lost much of its ballistic capability. Does this really reduce overall risk for US bases, as others have claimed? Ballistics can’t be their only option for response.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      YY_Sima Qian

      June 23, 2025 at 6:34 am

      @catfishncod: Iran has plenty (many hundreds, if not low thousands) of Short Range Ballistic Missiles that have not been used against Israel, because Israel is out of range for such weapons. They can be employed against US bases in the Gulf States & Iraq/Syria. Of course, that will invite an overwhelming U.S. response. However, after all the fireworks it may still end in a stalemate (much as the current Israeli-Iranian War appears to be settling into) because the U.S. does not have an infinite stock of precision guided munitions, & Iran & its remaining Shi’it militia proxies in Iraq present a lot of targets. The U.S. will not want to expend so much of its high end munitions stock in the ME, such that its deterrence posture against the PRC in the Western Pacific then lack any credibility.

      Of course, the U.S. will not actually have enough platforms & high end munitions to truly wage high intensity war against the PRC, a continent sized peer adversary, w/ enough (& still improving) quantity & quality to force the U.S. into a war of attrition, supported by a far superior industrial base, & w/ far more targets than the U.S. has munitions. Not for long, anyway. The current U.S. munitions stock & defense industrial base is woefully inadequate for that scenario. But that is another discussion.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      p.a.

      June 23, 2025 at 6:56 am

      I’m in bed by the time you post, so mille grazie to take care of past & future posts.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Matt

      June 23, 2025 at 8:19 am

      Biden’s inability to realistically see and understand what Bibi was doing

      Bullshit. Biden knew exactly what was being done, and he and his team worked hard to make sure that it kept happening. They lied to the public, over and over again, insisting they were “applying pressure” while doing nothing of the sort.

      Meanwhile, useful idiots like the folks on this blog kept repeating “if you attack Biden, you’re helping Trump! He PROMISED that he’d talk to Bibi!” while deliberately refusing to even talk about the ongoing atrocities.

      Welcome to the “Liz Cheney Democratic Party”, folks. The blood doesn’t wash off.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Butter Emails!

      June 23, 2025 at 9:59 am

      @Matt:

      I’m sure all the dead children in Africa caused by the destruction of USAID are grateful for your efforts to fuck over the Palestinians in the US and West Bank as well as making the ethnic cleansing of Gaza an explicit US policy.

      Reply

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