(Image by NEIVANMADE)
All of eastern Ukraine, from Kherson and Mykolaiv in the south around to Sumy in the north is under air raid alert at 2:30 AM local time in Ukraine/7:30 PM EDT. As you could guess, Kharkiv is once again being struck.
Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ the city is under the russian drone attack right now ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 6:55 PM
7th explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ fucks sake!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:02 PM
This follows on last night’s and today’s genocidal Russian attacks on civilian targets in Sumy and Dnipro, which we’ll get to after the jump.
This is the result of a Russian missile hit that damaged a civilian train today, carrying regular people, including the elderly, women, and kids. Sadly, people get used to seeing stuff like this, and it won’t be all over the news. Don’t let it fade. Keep showing Russia’s crimes
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 10:13 AM
The cost:
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
UAnimals has published a video where cats and dogs visibly react to explosions, hiding, trembling, and seeking comfort and safety in people’s arms. The scenes were filmed in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lutsk, and Kramatorsk.
Turn your sound on to watch.— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 10:51 AM
ALL CLEAR!!!!
President Zelenskyy travelled to Holland today for the NATO summit.
Here is his joint statement with Prime Minister Dick Schoof:
And here is his address to the Dutch Parliament. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Address by the President of Ukraine to the Senate and the House of Representatives of the Netherlands
24 June 2025 – 20:37
Dear friends!
Dear members of the Dutch Parliament!
Presidents of the House and the Senate!
And all the people of the Kingdom of the Netherlands!
I’m here with you today – in person – in your Parliament, first of all, to say thank you. Thank you for the fact that the Netherlands is one of the world’s biggest defenders of life and one of the largest in Europe – together with Germany, Norway and Sweden. Thank you! And we truly feel this support – and we’ve felt it since the very, very first hours of the full-scale war.
And I thank you for every decision that helps save lives in Ukraine. The air defense systems you’ve helped us with, the investments in our defense from the Netherlands – both bilateral and thanks to your support at the EU level – and your defense packages that help our soldiers hold the line – all of this is a contribution to peace.
And I thank you for helping us move toward peace – and for your honest, heartfelt support.
Now, every single day in Ukraine starts the same way with updates on the consequences of Russian strikes. And these attacks – almost all of them – cannot be explained by anything rational or humane.
Just last night, nine Russian-Iranian Shahed drones struck an ordinary Ukrainian village in the eastern part of Ukraine, in Sumy region. And seven houses were completely destroyed. Twenty-two more were badly damaged. Our rescuers pulled three children out from under the rubble. And six people were injured. Sadly, three were killed, including a child. My deepest condolences.
That attack made no military sense. But how many were shattered!
Right now, today, in Ukraine, in the city of Dnipro, people are receiving help after a Russian ballistic missile strike. 16 people have been killed, and more than 100 have been injured. Right now, today. Many homes were affected, schools were damaged, and people were hurt – even a passenger train was hit as it was simply following its route – the missile exploded right next to it.
One way or another, life itself is the main target of these attacks – each one showing the true nature of Putin’s war.
He did the same in Chechnya, did the same in Syria. And now in Ukraine. His propagandists openly threaten other nations. Both our intelligence and yours, and in Europe think that Russia is planning hostile and potentially destructive, potentially destructive operations on NATO territory.
And we must speak honestly about what kind of operations these are, and what kind of hatred they show. Putin destroys lives – and that’s how he defines control. And if he can kill people, if he can destroy homes, blackmail others – he believes he has power. To Russia, power means being able to kill or intimidate – without that, they think that they have nothing. That’s why they turn everything into a weapon – from old cultural ties of Russia or the Soviet Union, to the energy resources they export today. For decades, Russia has built networks in other countries to prepare for sabotage and destabilization. Moscow never truly respects any alliance and always betrays its so-called “partners” – but it still builds ties with bloody regimes. With the help of such “friends”, Russia is simply improving its ability to kill. That’s why solidarity in defense is so important, so that no one ever has to face them alone.
This is not just about defending Ukraine right now – it’s about much more. Russia has no right to kill our people. Russia has no right to kill anyone in European cities – which they have already done before. Russia has no right to threaten critical infrastructure in the Baltic, North Sea or the Arctic – or in any sea in the world. Russia has no right to invest in terror or destruction in any country.
And especially, Russia has no right to even threaten the transfer of nuclear weapons to any regime in the world – including the regime in Tehran or anyone else trying to back up madness with the power of nuclear explosions.
Understanding what you do have the right to begins with knowing what you don’t. That is where the borders of others’ security and freedom really begin. Of other nations, people. Many in the world have already learned this. Russia still needs to. Russia must understand that rules exist.
Putin pretends he doesn’t understand what rules shape the modern world. And here in The Hague, I want to say this very clearly – for Putin. There is a rule – do not kill. There is a rule – do not act like a beast toward people. There is a rule – do not burn down cities and villages. There is also a rule – do not justify or sponsor terror. There is a rule – do not steal children. And if you break such rules, there must be responsibility.
It may be hard for Russia to understand. But these are the very rules that form everything – from the UN Charter and international law to our shared European way of life. A life built after World War 2 – and the safest, most decent life Europe has known in centuries.
We must protect this life. And we will protect it.
Dear friends!
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia has used 28,743 Shahed drones. In this June alone, they’ve already launched 2,736 Shaheds. Russia could never have done this without its ties to the regime in Iran. And we in Ukraine could never have shot down most of these drones without your solidarity – and the support of our partners. This fact speaks for itself.
To truly end this war and build a real lasting peace, we need to act on two main directions. First – maximum isolation of Russia.
That means political isolation, sanctions of all kinds, and cutting off any cooperation that helps them survive and keep fighting.
Every scheme that keeps them going must be shut down.
And I urge you to stay strong and principled in your pressure on Russia.
We need a strong 18th EU sanctions package. We need tough, painful sanctions on Russian oil. There are many discussions right now about different options for a price cap on Russian oil. What matters most is that the price cap actually works. And when we talk about a price cap, it’s important to remember – any drop in Russia’s oil revenue helps bring peace closer. But what really hurts them – and truly limits their ability to wage war – is a cap at 30 dollars per barrel. The world needs to reach this level. Not only to help stop Russia’s war against us, but also to prevent any future military operations Russia might launch against Europe and the Alliance. War plans must become deadly expensive for Russia.
We need to truly block their tanker fleet – and cut them off from international banking.
That is what works.
And the second direction – stability in defense support.
I urge you to back all long-term programs of support and cooperation with us, with Ukraine. Russia must see that Ukraine will not be left alone – and that Europe will not back down.
And I thank the Netherlands for the new and very important defense package, especially the support for Ukraine’s own weapons production.
And it’s vital to support the need for other European countries to raise their defense spending.
Russia is stronger than any one of us alone, but it is weaker than all of us together. That’s how Putin thinks – in terms of potential. His own potential, and the potential of those he sees as targets or rivals. And if Russia sees that Europe’s combined strength leaves it no chance for aggression – there will be no aggression. If Russia feels that we are striking back hard – painfully – then peace will become the most popular topic in Moscow. And we will get there together. Together, we will get there. Knowing how Putin thinks, knowing how Russia wages war – and acting in ways that truly limit them and make it painful for them – we will bring peace closer. Let’s get this job done.
Let this war be a warning to prevent a much, much bigger one. Russia must be forced into peace.
Thank you for standing with us.
Thank you, Netherlands.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 209
📷 Mariam Qavshbaia/Publika— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 2:16 PM
It was Day 209 of #GeorgiaProtests tonight.
One trend that I suppose should be noted is that almost no high-profile people who are targeted to be imprisoned leave Georgia.
The vast majority choses to be imprisoned instead if that’s what it takes
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili has been hit with new charges while in prison, says his lawyer Mamuka Chabashvili. The charges reportedly stem from a “banal case” 2 years ago. Okruashvili is currently jailed for missing the Tea Tsulukiani Commission session.
#TerrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Another Georgian opposition leader got arrested. Giorgi Vashadze got sentenced for a 7 months imprisonment. Before the final decision got made he gave us this interview where he also sent a message to the democratic world and to the people of Georgia.
🗣️“No more talks – it’s time to act. Anything that is possible must be done now. We are strong enough to win this battle together with you!” – Giorgi Vashadze addressed #Georgia’s Western partners before being taken into custody.
He was sentenced to 7 months in prison.
#RepressionInGeorgia
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 24, 2025 at 5:17 AM
Thread 🧵
1/ The legislative amendments initiated by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, which will be fast-tracked for approval on June 26, include a clause stating:
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:32 AM
2/ “Any expression of disrespect toward the status of a judge (verbally, through obscene actions, etc.), in any form and in any environment (during court hearings, in public spaces), shall entail liability as provided for by law.”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:32 AM
3/ The amendments also prohibit the request for, or dissemination of, information about a first-instance court decision if that decision is under appeal and has not yet reached final judgment.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:32 AM
4/ Lawyers will still have access to such information, but will not have the right to make it public. Under the current law, acts are made public immediately upon adoption.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:32 AM
If you haven’t paid attention to #Georgia for 2-3 weeks, here is status of main opposition party leaders.
(Khoshtaria recently arrested & mistreated. Bokuchava’s husband kidnapped & threatened for 9 hours two weeks ago.)
— Hans Gutbrod (@hansgutbrod.bsky.social) June 23, 2025 at 12:09 PM
An important point to remember is that most jailed democratic forces leaders in Georgia will serve far more than just 7-8 months, unless the regime changes.
Many of them already have other rounds of “investigations” going on.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:56 AM
Another high-profile resignation today. (So-called) Deputy Minister of Defense Giorgi Liluashvili resigns.
These are some inter-clan struggles within the regime, exacerbated by protests, sanctions, non-recognition.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 9:40 AM
A few months ago, Davitashvili and some others from the economic sector such as the President of the National Bank Natia Turnava pleaded to Ivanishvili and Kobakhidze that the situation was tough, and Kobakhidze assured them that he’d get things in order in a couple of months. 2/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Apparently, something’s not going right for them, and this probably explains their accelerated dictatorship. 3/3.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Denmark:
🇩🇰🇺🇦 Today in The Hague, Ukraine and Denmark signed a Letter of Intent to start joint production of Ukrainian weapons on Danish territory.
Denmark has already allocated 500 million Danish kroner (around $76.4 million) to support this effort.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 12:24 PM
🇺🇦🇳🇱 The Netherlands to Produce 600,000 Drones for Ukraine Under €500 Million Deal
Dutch Defence Minister has announced the signing of contracts for the production of 600,000 drones destined for Ukraine, funded through a €500 million aid package.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 6:22 AM
/2. In addition to this massive drone production effort, the Netherlands is allocating another €175 million for critical defence support, including:
-100 drone-detection radars
-20 medical evacuation vehicles
-Additional shipments of droneswww.defensie.nl/actueel/nieu…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 6:22 AM
The UK:
🇺🇦🇬🇧Ukraine and the United Kingdom are joining forces to launch a major joint drone production initiative.
Over the first three years of the project, the UK will fund the procurement of a full range of Ukrainian-designed drones, which will be manufactured on British soil.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 6:17 AM
/2. While the war continues, all drone production will be directed exclusively to support Ukraine’s Defence Forces. After the war ends, the drones will be distributed between the UK and Ukraine based on mutual agreements. www.facebook.com/share/19FwvQ…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 6:18 AM
Holland:
The Dutch Minister of Defence, Ruben Brekelmans, has announced a new aid package for Ukraine.
x.com/DefensieMin/…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:37 AM
NATO is drafting a statement on drones and air defense for Ukraine, Dutch PM Dick Schoof announced. He met with President Zelenskyy in The Hague, ahead of the NATO summit (June 24–25), where Zelenskyy is also set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:21 AM
The US:
Laughing face emojis from a White House account quoting Trump about him “probably” meeting with Zelensky, whose country is being bombed every day by Russia and is in need of US help, which is meant to be its biggest backer. In the past 24 hours, two massive attacks killed 25 people and injured 100s.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) June 24, 2025 at 12:24 PM
NATO:
Mark Rutte speaking at the NATO summit in The Hague. “There is total commitment by the US president and the US senior leadership to NATO. However, it comes with an expectation…that we will finally deal with…this huge irritant, which is that we are not spending enough”
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:21 AM
Rutte on whether US will pull back. Points to US decision to appoint an American SACEUR. “My message to my European colleagues is: stop worrying so much. Start to make sure that you get investment plans down…that the support for Ukraine remains at a higher level.”
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:21 AM
Rutte in full-on Trump ego massaging mode. “I want to commend President Trump for breaking the deadlock….it’s only one leader who could [do that] and that had to be the American president because he is the most powerful leader in the world, and leading… the mightiest…military”
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:22 AM
Rutte: “we [NATO] know the risks we run with Taiwan, and that if that would happen, that obviously Xi Jinping will call his junior colleague in the Kremlin and tell him, Hey, Vladimir…Can you keep them busy in Europe?”
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Trump has published Rutte’s msg and my gosh… I get second-hand shame just from reading this.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 2:34 PM
The EU:
Morning of the NATO summit: two key train lines in the Netherlands are down (Amsterdam-Schiphol; The Hague- Rotterdam) due to power cuts caused by “unidentified” fires along the tracks.
Accidents? Maybe. But we see similar “incidents” all over Europe, and no clue of scale.
nos.nl/artikel/2572…
— Katja Bego (@katjabego.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Trump tells reporters on Air Force One he’ll “probably” meet Zelensky tomorrow at the NATO summit. People close to the Ukrainian President tell me as well that they are hoping a meeting will take place, preferably one-on-one, which is how Zelensky believes he is best able to communicate with Trump.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) June 24, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Civilian train attacked. A family, including an 8-year-old, burned alive in their own home. Schools, kindergartens, and apartment buildings relentlessly shelled. Nearly 300 victims in a single, horrifying day.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:22 PM
This isn’t just a story, it’s a monumental human tragedy that demands to be on every front page and the primary focus of every prime-time broadcast. So, why isn’t it? What more needs to happen for the russian mass murder of Ukrainians be deemed newsworthy?
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:22 PM
1/3 🇺🇦⚡
1)Over the past week, there have been massive attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and other Ukrainian cities. And somehow, we have stopped hearing even concern from our partners. Merz, who promised “Taurus,” failed to deliver. Macron has also fallen silent. The UN is somewhere looking for a happy medium.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 8:40 AM
2) What happened? You don’t even show concerned faces? Where is your unity, Europe? It has long been obvious to me: all these “great friends” talk a good game, but as soon as the time comes to make a decision and take a position, they instantly wash their hands of it.
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 8:40 AM
3) As far as I’m concerned, the only thing we can really do to help ourselves is to stop listening to promises and trust ourselves and those who are close by. Don’t fight each other and don’t despair.
Things have been worse. We will prevail! Hugs to everyone.— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Last year, on the eve of the NATO summit, russia bombed Okhmatdyt children’s hospital.
This year, it severely bombed Dnipro: 9 killed. 153 injured.
russia won’t stop until it’s stopped.
Europe’s security is not decided at summits. It’s decided on the frontlines of this war.— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Large numbers of Ukrainian drones heading for SW Russia and Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea. Others headed deep into the east of “European” Russia. Map from t.me/dronbomber.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Today, throughout the day, Russian airspace is being harassed by the “Chaklun-V” drone operated by Ukrainian special services and the SBS.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 12:49 PM
A Ukrainian Air Force F-16 shoots down a Russian/Iranian Shahed attack drone with an AIM-9 air-to-air missile.
More Shaheds already on their way to Ukraine from fascist Russia tonight – launches reported from Russia’s Bryansk and Rostov oblasts.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter intercepts Russian Shahed over Ukraine. t.me/YT29JTacRome…
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Kharkiv:
Last night, russia yet again unleashed its terror on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, hitting it with seven Shahed drones. Three civilians were wounded, including a child.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 3:09 AM
Kharkiv’s Nemyshlyanskyi and Saltivskyi districts suffered damage from a night-time drone attack, with 23 private homes and six apartment buildings affected, the city council announced. Power lines were also downed.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 9:02 AM
💥 In the Kharkiv region, fighters from the Phoenix State Border Guard Service unit destroyed four motorcycles, two infantry fighting vehicles, a car, an MT-12 cannon, a Mavic UAV, and eliminated about ten occupiers.
Our warriors did a masterful job! 💙💪— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Sumy Oblast:
A village in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast lived through a nightmare as russia launched a massive drone attack — setting a street on fire and destroying 30 homes. Three people, including an 8-year-old boy, were killed. Six others were injured.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Russian attack murdered an 8-year-old boy in Sumy Region.
The attack left 3 dead and 15 wounded. Roughly 15 buildings across 6 private landholdings were simultaneously engulfed in flames
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Dnipro:
Russia just attacked Dnipro with ballistic missiles! The terror continues.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:29 AM
🔴 A kindergarten in Dnipro was damaged as a result of a Russian attack.
Preliminarily, at least one person was killed in the city.
— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) June 24, 2025 at 5:47 AM
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
Reportedly, one of the russian missiles hit the train while it was standing at the station in Dnipro
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:52 AM
UPD: A missile struck close to the train
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Damage to Dnipro-Odesa train, passengers evacuating. Reports that schools, kindergartens, and a hospital were amongst the buildings damaged in a Russian attack with four Iskander ballistic missiles. One person known to have been killed.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 5:41 AM
More from the site of the missile strike near the train, evacuated passengers:
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 5:41 AM
The number of casualties from the Russian attack in Dnipro has risen to 17 deaths and 279 injured, according to Lysak, the head of the Oblast Military Administration.
Among the injured are 27 children.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 2:31 PM
ALL CLEAR!!!!
The left bank of the Dnipro, Kherson Oblast:
The left bank of Kherson region. An airstrike on Russian forces was carried out by pilots of the 34th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the Ukrainian Marine Corps.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 11:00 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Bayraktar!
Bayraktar corrects and strikes Russian infantry on boats somewhere in the Black Sea
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Nothing quite like the classics!
Your daily Patron!
I’m saving the new Patron video for tomorrow night.
Here is some adjacent material.
Fluffy fella saved from under the rubble in Kyiv. Hope he recovers!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Odesa cat as a jewelry of our city 💙😻
— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 24, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Open thread!
mayim
Thank you so much for the work you put into these ~ it’s very much appreciated!
YY_Sima Qian
FT reporting from two weeks ago (gift link below):
I don’t think I have read any reporting that Ukraine has had trouble obtaining Chinese components (probably via shell companies & transshipment) from its massive drone production effort, having produced 1.5M drones last year & ramping production to ~ 2M / yr. Reporting & analyses indicate that the Ukraine military still enjoys an advantage in drone warfare on the front lines, both in terms of mass & in terms of tactics. This despite reporting that suggests that Russia appears to have better access to the PRC drone supply chain ecosystem (though still only isolated anecdotes), & greater resources overall. It is probably evidence of the disparity in organization, mobilization & governance capacity between Ukrainian & Russian governments.
For reference, the PRC is assessed to be able to produce 6M FPVs / yr right now, & can be surged to 7.4M / yr while still at peacetime footing. That is FPVs alone, not including quad-/hexa-/octa-copters or the larger more specialized drones.
Here is an earlier article from the Economist that digs a bit into the Ukrainian armed drone industry & the economic/industrial policy implications (gift link below):
Ukraine can produce millions of drones, while the US struggles to products tens of thousands, because the former tries to leverage the Chinese supply chain ecosystem, while the latter seeks to sever any dependence. Exigencies of war.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Imagine that Ukraine went to war with China: do you -really- think that China wouldn’t do -everything- in its power (and then some) to ensure that no drone parts got to Ukraine? c’mon man.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: If Ukraine went to war w/ the PRC, sure. That is probably why Ukraine does not plan to go to war w/ the PRC. (Then again, such commoditized components will be hard for the PRC government to police.)
What the US is trying to do is cut that dependence cold turkey, w/o creating enough domestic demand to achieve economy of scale to drive down cost & build out the supply chain ecosystem. That, to me, is a failure of industrial policy.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
Yes, on that we agree. If the US were doing this competently, we would collaborate with our closest allies to distribute the supply chain and hence the industrial activity across them, and also the demand for drones. But we’re governed by incompetents today. And it must be noted, it wasn’t much better under Biden, in this regard. Ah well.
YY_Sima Qian
A fascinating study of Israeli/US expenditures of anti-ballistic missile during the Israeli-Iranian War, the best kind of analysis that OSINT can offer:
As the author notes, the count just the floor, since Iran launched far more salvos that what the Jordanian photographer captured, many of the later salvos launched during day time. The actual expenditure is probably 2X or more higher. Then compare the budgeted production of THAAD missiles, to take one example.
As both Adam & I have noted before, the US really is not at all serious about preparing for a peer level high intensity war against the PRC, despite it being a war that some segments of the MAGA/SV TechBro crowd claim to be very eager to prepare for & fight, & sooner rather than later. Defense of Israel during the most recent war probably consumed multiple years of planned production of THAAD missiles. The month long campaign against the Houthis probably consumed a year’s worth of naval SM3 missile production, not to mentioned the year+ of shooting down Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles before that.
In the meantime, in what is surely an exercise in signaling, PRC state TV showed what purported to be a nearly fully automated factory producing components for cruise missiles, w/ a production rate to support 1K missiles / day.
Eolirin
Technically, we don’t need to worry about demand. The defense production act exists for a reason. It’ll still take time to spin up capacity, but if the US government decides it needs to start producing a massive amount of anything, it can outright order industrial production to be shifted to doing that and then it’s just a logistics problem, not an economic one, raw materials that need to be sourced from other countries aside.
What we lack is political will to take those steps.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Chetan Murthy
@Eolirin: Not sure about that. Tooling up a production line for really high-tech stuff takes time and the machines for that line. Imagine having to spin up a drone production line for real: you’d need to start up lines for the motors, the guidance units, for all the parts. And those parts have parts themselves. I do think YY has a good point: for decades we’ve built our military (and that of our allies) on the principle that “quality has a quantity all of its own”. But in fact, that’s wrong on two different counts: quality can be superseded by new tech, and quantity itself has a quality all its own.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: That is the gist of the Foreign Affairs article written by Kurt Campbell & Rush Doshi (formerly of Biden’s State Dept. & NSC, respectively):
The fact is economic nationalism under Biden, & economic nationalism on steroids & hallucinogen under Trump 47, both greatly mitigates against the formation of such an “allied” supply chain ecosystem. Even aside from that hard reality, the foundational issue is that the supply chain decoupling (beyond prudent diversification & “de-risking”) that Campbell & Roshi promote here is enormously costly to the economies involved. The US allies/partners (to the extent the US still has them) most exposed to pressure from a geopolitically & militarily rising PRC are also those most closely integrated w/ an economically rising PRC.
It is one thing to balance against the rise of the PRC, it is quite another to sacrifice their economic wellbeing & developmental goals to defend US primacy, & US allies/partners are not that interested in the latter. To an extent, that has exactly been Trump 45’s & Biden’s ask, & now Trump 47 has dispensed w/ any niceties & is transparently coercive, exploitative & extractive. Successful geopolitical strategy & industrial policy have to start from the reality as it is & likely to be, not how one wishes it to be.
The reality as it is:
Australian PM & South Korean President also skipped the summit. The only head of government among the “IP4” NATO partners to attend was New Zealand’s right wing PM Luxon.
Since Trump 47’s inauguration, Biden’s FP doyens (Blinken, Sullivan, Doshi, Ratner, etc.) have continued to publish articles that fail to acknowledge the new reality that Trump’s MAGA reactionary counterrevolution has created, so their analyses & advice read as highly anachronistic. The worst among them is Ely Ratner (formerly of Biden’s DOD), who joined the Marathon Initiative, a reactionary/primacist/militarist think tank cofounded by Elbridge Colby, now Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the Trump 47 administration. Clearly, what animates Ratner is defense of US primacy, rather than liberal democracy in the US.
YY_Sima Qian
@Eolirin: The US pre- & post-WW II could do as you suggested because it had the largest, deepest & the most comprehensive industrial base & supply chain ecosystem in the world, one that is technologically leading in important areas & at least competitive in others.
The US has lost that industrial prowess decades ago. Now it is the PRC that occupies that position, though its dominance is not quite as extreme as the US immediately post-WW II. That is the biggest reason why products in the PRC are so cheap to manufacture & new products development so fast.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: To your point, & to the point of the articles I posted, Ukraine can make millions of drones because Ukraine only need them to be consumable items that are cheap & good enough. The US is struggling w/ orders for tens of thousands of “Replicators”. There will be little opportunity for grift if the US follows Ukraine’s example.
US (even Western) defense policymakers also forgot that NATO had plenty of mass, in addition to the technological advantage, to counter the enormous Soviet/Warsaw Pact mass during the Cold War. Indeed, in the naval realm NATO enjoyed decisive advantages in both quantity & quality, at least on the high seas. Somehow, policymakers convinced themselves that the generational advantage the US & allies enjoyed over Iraq in ’91, & again in ’03, to be the permanent state of affairs. Or that COIN would translate to advantages in peer level high intensity war.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
And Ukraine doesn’t make the motors, the batteries, or the guidance units, right? [those all come from China] If Ukraine had to do that, they’d be screwed.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Ukraine is trying to diversify the supply of batteries & sensors, but motors almost all come from the PRC, & certainly the rare earth magnets in the motors. Surely Ukraine is not happy about the continued dependence on the PRC supply chain, but exigencies of war takes precedence. Also, Ukraine is just as dependent on the PRC as the top market for its grains, so…
Also, as I mentioned before, these are commodity items. If the US could not police the flow of high value GPUs, it is a tall order for the PRC to police the flow of these low to medium value components.
The US has to decide whether it is better to reply on parts of the PRC supply chain to quickly build large number of Replicators (leaving aside whether such small drones are actually useful in the vast expanses of WestPac) to help deter the PRC, or if it is better to immediately decouple from the PRC supply chain & get stuck w/ a much smaller number of Replicators at a much higher costs, in the years during which the US tries to establish a domestic supply chain (assuming it is ultimately successful).
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
I can’t express my utter rage at continued Russian war crimes and my utter disgust with the indifference of the rest of the world that lets Russia get away with them. Words fail me.
It bothers me greatly that so many nations are leaving the Ottawa Convention banning landmines. Yes, I understand perfectly why nations are doing it, because how much choice do they have? (Rhetorical question.) But landmines are a curse, to all peoples. For crying out loud, people are still getting blown up by mines laid down in the Western desert, 80 years after WWII ended.
Thank you Adam, for all your hard work, and it must be hard having to see all this death and destruction. Stay well.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Landmines & cluster munitions. Cambodia is still de-mining the legacies of the Vietnam War.
But, exigencies of war will override any concerns about long term costs post-war. One has to survive the war 1st, to get to the post-war.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@YY_Sima Qian: I understand that perfectly and they’re still uncovering lethal shite from WWI in France. I’m not angry at Finland and the Baltic States. I’m angry with Russia for making it necessary to take these steps and angry with Europe and others for letting things get to this point without doing anything substantive to prevent it.
Chetan Murthy
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: It’s frustrating, isn’t it? The West controls the financial system that Russia uses: we could freeze them out, end all trade with Russia, and force other countries to choose. That would end this goddamn war instanter. But no, we can’t do that. I mean, maybe The West isn’t actually in a position to force countries to choose. But if that’s really the case, then the entire thesis on which our global order is built — that trade will make war impossible b/c unprofitable — is wrong, and we need to rearm like -crazy-.
And this idea that we’re going to allow Russia to keep their frozen assets: madness. Insanity. And I read the articles about -why-, and they all boil down to “if we take these assets away from this bad actor, then other bad actors won’t deposit assets into our banks”. And I wanna say “if you’re depending on bad actors depositing their stolen assets in your banks, you’re doing something wrong, you idiots!”
Ugh.
wjca
But you absolutely cannot discount that. Even assuming that domestic sources of the various raw materials are potentially available, building mining and refining capacity isn’t something that can be done overnight. No matter how fabulous a magic wand the government (even if it were competent) can wield.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Chetan Murthy: This is why I have quite well had it with so-called realpolitik. I have never seen the War in Ukraine simply as a matter of territories or even of politics, albeit I acknowledge that it is also those things. I have always seen it as an existential crisis, on various levels, and the refusal of politicians, thought leaders, the MSM, etc., to grasp that fact has maddened me to no end. We are talking about literal Good vs Evil here, where one side does its best to avoid hurting civilians, while the other blows up hospitals and kills children. How stark does the contrast have to be before people get it? Of course, you may reject this framing, considering it “unrealistic”, and maybe you would be correct. This is my POV, and I’m not about to change it.
Chetan Murthy
I don’t believe it’s necessary to go that far. Russia wants to attack our way of life, our system of nations, and we should not allow Russia -access- to our system of nations, our way of life, our way of trade, while it attacks it. It should be a basic requirement of access to our markets, that you don’t attack our countries.
Of course, I -do- agree with you: it’s Good vs. Evil. Or at least, “not as bad” vs “really fucking evil”.
Chetan Murthy
Ah yes, that idiot Mearsheimer. I never understood why the realpolitik thing to do wasn’t to back Ukraine to hilt, in order to destroy Russia’s military and reduce them to a has-been empire. Really didn’t understand it. Best chance we have to end that threat to our own hegemony.
PatD
@YY_Sima Qian: well, I’d argue that the US has no urgency to mass produce drones. It’s cheaper and more efficient for Ukraine to get its drone parts from China. It would take time to industrialize US production domestically but it can be done and would be done if needed.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Mearsheimer has internalized the concept, seemingly immutable from the Cold War, that Russia will always be among the Great Powers, & thus cannot be defeated by the US by proxy. Better to give Russia the sphere if influence that it demands to avoid nuclear war.
Interestingly, Mearsheimer for decades (since the late 90s, at least) argued that the US should nip the potential challenge from the PRC in the bud, via containment, coercion, subversion, & offensive war if necessary. Now that he appears to have concluded that the PRC is far too strong for such a strategy to work, he is now advocating accommodation, similar to his views vis-à-vis Russia.
Incidentally, Mearsheimer has always been a crowd favorite in the PRC, despite his long standing hawkishness toward the country. Perhaps the Chinese audience finds in Mearsheimer the unvarnished confirmation of the cynical & self-interested great power that they have always believed the US to be, w/ none of that hypocritical & grating “liberal internationalist” veneer, for who the CPC regime & Chinese intellectuals (not of the Western liberal persuasion) reserve for their greatest contempt.
Probably part of the reason why he has been a crowd favorite in Russia, too.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: Does this tie in with Gin & Tonic’s perennial complaint that all US academic, diplomatic and military Slavic studies are relentlessly Russian, when there are many other Slavic cultures in Europe and the world?
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: It is of one piece.