Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is absolutely bombing with the American public
It's quite spectacular just how unpopular the President's flagship bill is
usapolling.substack.com/p/trumps-big…— Polling USA (@usapolling.bsky.social) June 26, 2025 at 4:35 PM
As Trump tries to push his One Big Beautiful Bill through Congress, the American people don’t seem particularly thrilled about what it entails. Polling from several firms reveals that Americans are broadly opposed to the bill, as even the most favorable poll still shows strong opposition.
A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon and Shaw found that 38% of Americans support the bill, while 59% oppose it. Support only declines from there, as YouGov reports 35% in favor, while Quinnipiac and Pew Research both found just 29% support.
Three of the four polls show opposition to the bill above 50%, except for Pew, which still finds 49% opposed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act…
What’s especially notable is that Republicans aren’t uniformly in support of the bill, as one might expect. Support among Republicans ranges from a high of 73% to a low of 56%, suggesting many on the right aren’t sold on the bill’s contents.
Independents are firmly against it, with opposition ranging from 51% to 73%. Among Democrats, support never climbs above 10%…
YOLO Is the Order of the Day in GOP Budget Logic talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/yolo-…
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) June 25, 2025 at 11:53 AM
With the President’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” there’s been a general assumption. It’s super, super unpopular. And, also, it doesn’t matter. It’s going to pass anyway. That assumption is very likely true. Perhaps they’ll hit some speed bumps that prevent the bill from passing in time for July 4th, as Trump wants and has demanded. But these kinds of bills tend to be “failure is not an option” type affairs. You have obstacles but they get crumpled like things that go under a steam roller or mashed up in an industrial trash compactor. That’s particularly the case in Trump’s second term, where hints of the old ungovernable GOP caucus get flattened when word comes from Trump that it’s over. But here we see again the central tension point of the Trump presidency: he owns, dominates and controls everything but public opinion.
That much of it is almost conventional wisdom at this point. The bill thing is really, really unpopular. Even the inside-DC sheets say as much. So Republicans are starting to do something we’re used to seeing Democrats do with some of their more aspirational policies. Which is basically this: You think it’s unpopular. But that’s just because you’re not polling it right.
Famous last words….
… There are things in the bill that actually do have some public support: no taxes on tip income, a small but real tax cut for average earners (more on this in a moment), an increase in the child tax credit. But these are generally small, ancillary parts of the bill and the bill has already been defined as a mix of massive tax cuts for the very rich, draconian cuts to Obamacare and Medicaid and exploding deficits. That’s sticking because it’s the simple numerical reality of the bill. But it’s also sticking for an equally important reason: Even more than the first, the second Trump presidency has overflowed with the atmospherics of ultra-wealth and communicated clearly that it is government, to paraphrase Lincoln, of, by and for the ultra-rich.
You see it in the Cabinet, in the trooping of billionaires at the front seats of Trump’s inaugural, the world’s richest man given two or three months to actually run the government by himself. Trump critics get lost in the doomerist plasma of “Nothing matters.” But these things do matter. The public is getting the impression that the Trump BBB is taking things from average families to give things to the ultra-wealthy not only because that’s what it does but because Trump’s been communicating in imagery for months that that’s what this White House is about.
And there’s one additional point that doesn’t figure into most of these conversations. People assume that there are massive tax cuts. They may go mostly to the super rich. But, people assume, they’re there.
Only they’re kinda not there…
War for Ukraine Day 1,218: Another Night of Russian Drone Swarms in the Small Hours
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Some minor observations:
1. Big Beautiful Bill as the actual, official name is such disgusting obsequiousness from the GOP to Trump. It’s also a stupid, ridiculous name for an Act of Congress
2. It’s a childish dig at Biden and the Dems in general. Biden’s signature legislative agenda was Build Back Better (BBB)
Maccheerful
2. If there are anybody here who live in the Seattle area, there’s a film at Seattle International Film Festival theater tomorrow, called Searching for Nika, which is a fundraiser for Ukraine. It’s about a dog lost in the war and the people looking for it. It’s at 7 pm. You can get tickets here:
https://ukrainedefensesupport.org/ev/searching-for-nika-fillm-screening/
You can tell it’s authentic Ukrainians, because they mispelled film.
3. I haven’t commented here hardly at all over the years, preferring just to lurk, but think I might have to more often. This seems like people interested in action
YY_Sima Qian
A bit more clarity on what has been agreed between the US & the PRC at Geneva, then London. Considering the source (Howard Lutnick), it would be wise to wait & see, especially on the “top 10 deals” (gift link to Bloomberg article below):
Chetan Murthy
@Maccheerful: This community -indeed- acts. I forget what was the sum of $$ they managed to send to Dem/progressive causes during the 2024 election cycle, but it was pretty -considerable-. And WaterGirl does a good job of finding places where we can all feel that we’re making a difference, not just padding some consultant’s paycheck.
Splitting Image
I’m trying not to be a doomer, because I think that there is a very good chance that the bill will fail. (Although they will divide it up into A Series of Smaller, Not So Beautiful Bills, some of which will undoubtedly pass.)
That said, if the bill does pass, I take solace in the fact that it screws over Republican voters as much or more than it screws over everyone else. We all take comfort where we can, and I intend to enjoy watching his voters suffer.
NotMax
@YY_Sima Qian
So, essentially SSDD.
TACO salad, anyone?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
WG does yeoman’s work. I think during the 2022 midterms BJ raised somewhere in the ballpark of $700,000+ dollars for Dems in the general, targeted to to races where that money would have the most impact. I firmly believe we helped make a difference is several close races
Archon
The surreal thing about this bill is I would say the Republicans lost the message battle but they barely even bothered to defend it in public. Even the GOP battle to get rid of Obamacare in 2017 had more juice than this.
So this bill as a matter of public policy is literally indefensible yet if I had to bet I would say it will pass, (likely with massive carve outs to red states disproportionately impacted).
Maccheerful
I am reluctant to leave behind just chatting about the news, but that’s where we are.
My own view is that whatever else happens, the tax cuts will go through. But if I had to guess the Stupid Bill will probably get passed mostly in shape. The whole bit lately about Uncanny Trump, and Daddy Trump is to convince Congressional R’s, who don’t need much convincing, that they should close their eyes and trust in their Jesus.
ETA I should note that at the film referenced above, Searching for Nika, at the Seattle International Film Festival tomorrow at 7 pm, the director will be there, so you can chat about cinema with him, or about War, or about dogs.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
So, it’s still just a “concept of a deal”?
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Something is supposedly sign, but this is not a comprehensive deal. Just finally implementing the non-tariff portions of the deal announced at Geneva, & confirmed in London.
Until now, the PRC has been keeping a tight leash on the export of rare earth metals & rare earth magnets, thus creating high degree of precarity for civilian, dual use & military industries around the world.
kindness
Most normies out there are understanding all this cutting of services and government is just to give the already obscenely wealthy more money. I doubt the most dumb ass MAGA lover doesn’t like that either. And the ads really do write themselves. What Republicans are trying to do is wreck the country for a generation (or the next Democratic trifecta).
Chetan Murthy
@Archon: I remember during Trump I, they passed the TCJA (that big tax cut) and ….. pretty much nothing else. I remember over at LG&M, posts citing legal scholars who noted that since Trump was able to get all the authority he needed from SCOTUS, he didn’t actually need legislation for anything other than tax cuts. Which he got. The rest, he’d go to Daddy CJ Roberts and get what he wanted.
Maybe that’s their (perhaps inadvertent) plan this time too.
mayim
@Maccheerful:
I’ve been calling it the huge ugly bill. Not as alliteration but a more accurate description, I’d say.
NotMax
@mayim
BFB. Big Fugly Bill.
//
lgerard
IDK, trump said today that the bill has been met with “tremendous approval and reception”.
He also said that households would be receiving an increase of $13,000 which is even bigger then the $4,000 I didn’t get from the cut, cut, cut bill in his first term.
Jay
@lgerard:
Households over $2,500,000 income on average, will receive a tax cut of $12K. Households under $30k, will see an increase of $2.6k
according to the latest CBO scoring.
lgerard
@Jay:
Don’t muddy the debate with a bunch of facts.
trump also claimed we are the now “hottest country”. It certainly felt like that this week
Jay
@lgerard:
After all, it’s only fair that the roughly 36 million top incomes in the USA , (7% of the US population) get the same tax rate as a part time single Mom working at Walmart, 2.3%, down from 3.2%.
Jay
@lgerard:
I know, facts and reality have a Lie-beral bias,…………….
sab
@mayim: I like Huge Horrible Bill myself.
BellyCat
@Jay: The former group (small) will notice this unnoticeable improvement immediately, while the latter (large) group will notice this crippling penalty only on April 15, 2026 (tax day).
Jay
@BellyCat:
They will notice it faster than that, because a large part of their loss is benefits like SNAP.
Gretchen
@Maccheerful: welcome!
Gretchen
@Jay: they’re just claiming that the CBO is flat out wrong.
Socolofi
Most red states are examples that people won’t vote the bums out even if they pass crap law after crap law. I suspect there are a few smart but evil people who have looked at who gets booted off Medicare, and they concluded that they’re mostly Democrats anyway so it’s fine. I’m not sure if the sob stories of someone losing health insurance and then going bankrupt or dying or whatever will change any minds; lots of the GOP faithful are now I-got-mine-fuck-you.
Tariffs have also not turned into a big thing, although Trump has effectively rolled things back so it’s a 10% tax on imports and is being pretty quiet about anything else. Lots of businesses are eating it as to not anger him (auto manufacturers, in particular).
I don’t see much anger or action coming out of this, TBH. He prevents a scheduled tax hike on rich people. OK. Gets billed as a tax cut for the rich. Everyone knew that was coming. As long as their own personal finances aren’t destroyed – read, the market isn’t destroyed – won’t change any behavior.
Jay
@Gretchen:
Jay
@Socolofi:
9 plants closed, 4 on single shifts, 9600 laid off so far.
In July, Target is hiking prices by 95%. Walmart 10% next week.
The delay is due to to Corporations stocking up before the tariffs hit, and for most, July is when the pre-tariff stock runs out.
Trucking has already taken a massive hit, ports are still empty and tariffs FFS on steel and aluminum are currently at 50%.
Auto’s are at 25%.
That Bud Light 6 pack is going up $2.50 in July.
And you ain’t seen nothing yet.
There is for most items, always a lag between tariffs (FFS) being announced, tariffs (FFS) being applied, entire reams of books needs to be rewritten and updated and distributed, and tariffs (FFS) effecting the price on the shelves.
lowtechcyclist
@Jay:
Let’s hope the Big Awful Bill gets stalled until at least past the Fourth then, because once prices start going up in a way that hits normies, people will be pissed in general at Trump, and the bill will get caught up in that anger as well. Every day after that it doesn’t pass will make it less likely that it passes at all.
Jay
@lowtechcyclist:
So far the OBBB infighting amongst the ReThugs is just getting started. I am rooting for injuries.
Sadly, the FTUSMSM, is ignoring it, so it’s going to land like a Pearl Harbour, if it passes and starts to take effect.
I expect that as soon as it passes, and before it actually takes effect, that Agencies and Services that will be effected, will start to “triage” services to preserve and stretch out funding.
K-Thug had a substack last week pointing out the the current crop of University Graduates are seriously screwed. Nobody is hiring because of economic insecurity. Onboarding a new Grad isn’t cheap and that lack of a first job, because of opportunity costs basically costs new Grads a decade of economic loss.
sab
@Jay: I got out of school in 1980 early Reagan. Welcome new kids to my career blighted past. Lots of you voted for this, or stayed home and didn’t vote. Yay for you.
lowtechcyclist
@Jay:
You and me both.
Looks like both houses of Congress (House Senate) are scheduled to take next week off, and then go back in session for most of July before taking August off. They may obey the bidding of Dear Leader and stay around to try to finish it up before the Fourth, but if they stick to their current schedule, they’re pretty much done until 7/7 and the impact of the tariffs will be coming up fast.
My hope is that they stick around through Wednesday, get nowhere, take the week after the Fourth off instead, and by the time they get back, price increases will be hitting home and their phone lines will be burning up. And every day will make it harder to dump the one big ‘bomination of a bill on their constituents at the same time as the tariffs are knocking them for a loop.
Kayla Rudbek
@Jay: nodding in GenXer agreement over here. If it hadn’t been for the Bushes, I would’ve been able to get started in my career earlier instead of having to spend so much time in school (same for Mr. Rudbek)
Moondoggus
@YY_Sima Qian:
ah yes, item 2 contains the (in)famous “two weeks”
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Some of the slow down in auto production is also the PRC slowing down the approval for export of rare earth magnets to the U.S.
randy khan
It’s worth remembering that the elimination of taxes on tipped income (a truly terrible idea) has a bunch of limitations that make it much less valuable than it might appear.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian:
Quoting “Bloomberg AI”:
This is sane-washed mumbo jumbo.
In diplomacy, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and there are signatures.
Scheduling meetings to talk is not an agreement.
Grr…
Best wishes,
Scott.
Jay
@sab:
@Kayla Rudbek:
I graduated into the Reagan Recession. It was 15 years before I had my first “real job”, you know, secure, reasonable pay, benefits, a chance to move up the ladder.
During those 15 years I had 7 minimum wage jobs and was unemployed about 50% of that time. I lived in my parents basement until I was 36.
gene108
@Socolofi:
Sob stories of the uninsured dying due to lack of care or going bankrupt has never been enough to get public to care enough to take a chance on change to solve the problem of the uninsured.
The PPACA was slammed by the GOP for four years, until it went fully into effect and none of their declarations of economic doom materialized.
The “hope” is enough people have something to lose, because Obamacare covers a lot of people who otherwise would struggle with finding insurance due to health issues, or loss of job that they’ll notice the cuts to themselves or their brothers or sisters or parents or kids.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: I think what has happened is that the two sides have finally put down on paper, the temporary & limited understanding reached at Geneva in early May, & reaffirmed in London a couple of weeks, to deescalate from the “Liberation Day” tariffs & the additional export controls since. Finally approved by Trump & Xi. However, it is not a formal agreement, as there are no signatures, & in any case the agreement is limited in scope & temporary.
The US will resume access to EDAs to Chinese customers, resume the sale of ethane, & resume the sale of civilian aircraft engines. In return, the PRC will resume accepting deliveries of Boeing airliners already purchased, & expedite the export license approval of rare earth magnets to civilian use customers in the US. I would be extremely surprised if the PRC would approve export of rare earth magnets to US defense contractors, w/o some US concession on the export control of semiconductors & manufacturing tools, but the two sides might keep that particular trade under the table.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
@YY_Sima Qian: Note the “plans to reach agreements” and “hinges on future actions”. Basically saying, “We all agree we need to do something, but we have not yet agreed what that something is.” Not exactly the gleaming accomplishment the maladministration is hyping.