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You are here: Home / 2025 Activism / Not all retirements are equal

Not all retirements are equal

by | 10 Comments

This post is in: 

Over the past week or so, there have been at least three announcements of Congressional retirements/declining to run for re-election in 2026. The type of districts where there is now an Open Seat are interesting for a variety of reasons:

Let’s start in North Carolina.

THOM TILLIS SAYS HE'S NOT RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur.bsky.social) June 29, 2025 at 1:28 PM

Tillis (R-NC) is a two term incumbent senator from North Carolina who has won a pair of squeakers. His likely opponent was either former Governor Cooper (D-NC) or former Congressman Wiley Nickels (D-NC). Tillis noped out of the Senate after he voted against the motion to proceed on the tax cut and Medicaid cuts reconciliation bill in the Senate. He is a strong candidate in a seat that Democrats HAVE TO FLIP if there is a chance in hell in making JD Vance completely irrelevant in DC in 2027. Going from an incumbent defense to an open seat makes a flip substantially more probable for Democrats especially as the North Carolina GOP primary electorate really likes to vote for very weird people (Mark Robinson, Michelle Morrow last cycle).

Earlier this week there was news from Omaha:

Omaha's Republican House member, Don Bacon, announces he is retiring, so the seat immediately catapults near the top of Democratic pick-up opportunities: www.notus.org/republicans/…

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— Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) June 27, 2025 at 8:10 PM

NE-2 which is centered in Omaha voted for Harris and returned the Republican Bacon to the House last fall. An open seat is a much easier flip of the five net flips that Democrats need than beating a well entrenched and locally liked incumbent.

Both Republicans are representing districts that were high on Democratic flip lists for 2026. Going into a year that is likely to have a generic House ballot several points bluer than it was in 2024, the incumbency bonus is quite valuable for Republicans to defend these types of seats. Losing these types of incumbents this early on in the cycle is one hell of a revealed preference.

Now let’s move to Philly:

Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans announces his retirement from Pennsylvania's 3rd District, a Philly seat that's one of the bluest in the nation. Evans, 71, was unable to vote for much of the last Congress due to a stroke, and he's now stepping aside rather than seeking another term.

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— The Downballot (@the-downballot.com) June 30, 2025 at 10:53 AM

PA-3 is a hyper Dem district. This is a seat that is safe Dem no matter what. The primary is the action. And I anticipate the primary to be intense. The fact that it is open up allows for both generational change and potentially ideological change. But if we think that we have a gerontocracy problem and if we think that we are in a time period of tight margins (positive or negative) tagging out someone with substantial health challenges for someone who is unlikely to miss a lot of votes due to medical needs is likely a good thing. Other Democrats who get mailers every month about mandatory minimum distributions from their 401Ks who represent safe districts should also step down in a likely to be very blue year.

Reader Interactions

10Comments

  1. 1.

    Mathguy

    Good riddance to Don “bringing home Republican” Bacon. He was a Congressional version of David Brooks without any intelligence. Every important vote was on the side of the shitgibbon. Several decent Democrats have announced for the primary.

  2. 2.

    trollhattan

    WTAF is this about?

    President Trump and CBS are in “advanced” settlement talks in the lawsuit over a “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris, attorneys told a judge Monday.
    The parties requested a stay in all proceedings in the case until Thursday, July 3, suggesting that a settlement could come soon.
    “The Parties respectfully submit that good cause to stay all proceedings exists because the Parties are engaged in good faith, advanced, settlement negotiations,” the motion states.
    Trump is suing the network for $20 billion, claiming that the news show misleadingly edited an interview with Harris during the campaign last fall. CBS has reportedly offered as much as $15 million to settle the case, which its own attorneys have said is a “meritless assault on the First Amendment.”
     
    The parties previously reported they were in “active” settlement negotiations. Trump and Rep. Ronny Jackson sued under the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act, which outlaws consumer fraud. They have also alleged that CBS unfairly competed with Truth Social, the president’s social network, by offering an edited version of the Harris interview.
    The Wall Street Journal reported last week that a mediator proposed a $20 million settlement, with $17 million of that going to Trump’s presidential foundation. Trump has also sought an apology.
    The settlement discussions have already caused internal turmoil at CBS, as two top executives — Wendy McMahon and Bill Owens — departed the network.
    In April, CBS filed a motion to compel discovery related to Trump’s claims. The plaintiffs were given until June 30 to respond, but now both parties are seeking to suspend all deadlines at least until Thursday.
    variety.com/2025/tv/news/trump-cbs-advanced-settlement-talks-60-minutes-1236444444/

  4. 4.

    Anonymous At Work

    Read that Lara Trump is considering the North Carolina seat (seriously).  She might have to beat Sarah Palin in the primary (joking), though.

  5. 5.

    H.E.Wolf

     who get mailers every month about mandatory minimum distributions from their 401Ks

    Just wanted to tip my hat to you. This is an elegant (and mildly hilarious) way to indicate the over-70 age bracket. :-)

  6. 6.

    Geminid

    Politico has an article about this race where Tillis is quoted as saying he believed North Carolina Republicans would unite behind whomever Trump endorses. Then the reporter named three potential candidates under consideration for endorsement. They were Laura Trump, GOP Chaiman Michel Whatley, and first-term Congresman Pat Harrigan.

    Whatley used to be North Carolina Republican party chairman.

    Rep. Harrigan made a run for Congress in 2022, when current North Carolina Attorney General Jeff Jackson beat him. Last year Harrigan ran for the seat opened up by Rep. Patrick McHenry’ retirement and won.

    The article included a fun fact: Since 1974, no Senate candidate has won North Carolina by 10 percent or more.

  7. 7.

    Jay

    @trollhattan:

    Paramount Global, CBS’s parent company is seeking a merger with Skydance Entertainment.

    Taco Don’s FTC need to approve the merger, which they not done for “some reason”.

    So yeah, CBS’s “offer” is a bribe directly to Taco Don.

  8. 8.

    Soapdish

    While I’m all for addressing the gerontocracy issue we have, I’m concerned that a disproportionate number of the people we’re talking about are Black. We need to take care of how we proceed. And I say this as a person who is capably represented by an 80-year-old but still spry Bonnie Watson Coleman.

    Unless there’s some good procedural reason, Evans should step aside now.  Fetterman, too.

  9. 9.

    Jeffg166

    Pennsylvania’s 3rd District Is my district. Whoever gets the democratic nomination will go to congress. It will be interesting to see who runs for it.

  10. 10.

    Dave's Dad

    The democrats  have  to adopt the attitude  they are  behind by 20 points…they need to take zero  for granted…way too much damage is being done!

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