(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Russia has not slowed the pace of its attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets:
Russia’s war crimes don’t pause between massive attacks.
Over the past 24 hours, russian forces attacked six settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, launching missiles, aerial bombs and drones. The attacks killed two civilians and wounded ten others, including a child.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Ukraine is (partially) responding by counterattacking Russian targets in Russian occupied Luhansk and Donetsk:
Precision strike on Russian targets in temporarily occupied Donetsk — “a very juicy hit,” says Center for Countering Disinformation head Andriy Kovalenko. Local media report that the headquarters of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army is on fire.
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) June 30, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Occupied Yasynuvata 👀
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 3:12 PM
More from occupied Luhansk. Im not an expert but that fire looks gigantic 👀
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Last night spoot asked:
I have no idea whether Russia or Ukraine is winning, I cannot tell if the posters I read are objectively reporting the news on the Frontline or on the casualty figures or on the hideous bombing of Ukraine civilians and cities. I pray daily that Trump will finally admit that he cannot prop up Putin anymore but I suspect that day will never come, and that Trump admires and look up to the dictators of the world. wants the absolute power that they enjoy, and wants to join their company in a New World Order.
Can Ukraine prevail without the US? Can Ukraine and the European Union actually produce enough weaponry and arms to hold off the Russians Until their economy starts to crumble? Are all these narratives I read mostly just social media copium?
As Jay wrote in response, in the areas where Russia is accumulating territory it is doing so in such small amounts it would take Russia over 700 years to militarily conquer Ukraine going from east to west. And while this is definitely correct, the real answer to your question is that it is complicated. While a lot of the conflict looks frozen with the lines of contact appearing static, theres a lot of other things going on. And they have to do with the different strategic objectives of Putin/Russia and Ukraine.
Putin’s, and therefore Russia’s, overarching strategic objective is to take Ukraine. Not the nation-state. Not the Ukrainians themselves. Not actual Ukrainian culture. What Putin wants is the territory. If he can get it with the Ukrainians and they could be subjugated to his/Russian rule and dominance, that would work, but if he has to kill every last Ukrainian to get the territory, he’s willing (to try) to do so. He’s already misappropriated Ukraine’s actual social, cultural, and religious history to prop up his inaccurate and inauthentic Russian history. Putin has other strategic objectives tied to his primary one. These include bringing the Baltic states, Finland, Moldova, and Romania back under Russian control, fragmenting the EU, and destroying NATO.
None of these objectives are actually achievable by Russia.
Ukraine’s overarching strategic objective is to survive by defeating Russia. Every day that the vast majority of Ukraine remains free from Russian domination and subjugation and that the Ukrainians are defending themselves are small tactical victories that nest within the overall strategic objective.
What Ukraine needs, as Jay wrote in his reply to you last night, is more support from the EU and NATO since little will be coming from the US going forward. Ukraine also needs, and, quite frankly, the EU and its member states need, the EU to get its act together. The days of being a common economic market and a sort of, kind of, might be if you squint correctly political confederation of states are done. I am not suggesting that the EU member states have to surrender their national sovereignty, but they have to recognize that the threats that they’re facing means they can all hang together or they can continue to be prepared to all hang apart.
Russia CAN BE defeated in Ukraine. The Ukrainians have demonstrated that they have the resilience, resolve, and ingenuity to stymie Putin and Russia. What they need is proper support to ensure that Putin and Russia can be stopped and broken in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainians have made it clear that they are willing to pay the price in blood. What they need is for others to help them play the price in treasure.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Russia Is Investing in Its Unmanned Capabilities and Plans to Increase the Number of Drones Used in Strikes Against Our State; We Are Preparing Our Countermeasures – Address by the President
30 June 2025 – 20:38
Dear Ukrainians!
A few points for today. First, we are preparing very thoroughly for the new round of talks in Europe. Today, I held a meeting with our military and the Minister of Defense. As for drones – our domestic production will be ramped up. Today, we discussed everything related to orders, contracts, and the full capacity of our production. I will talk with our partners about new investments in Ukraine – in our weapons. The priority is drones, interceptor drones and long-range strike drones. And of course, the front – everything our warriors on the front lines need, everything that truly holds back Russian assaults. I am grateful to all Ukrainian drone manufacturers – every developer, everyone who is currently working hard to actively advance interceptor drones. This is extremely important. Russia is investing in its unmanned capabilities, Russia is planning to increase the number of drones used in strikes against our state. We are preparing our countermeasures.
We will also continue working with partners on sanctions. This is very important. Putin has already stolen practically half a year from diplomacy – another half a year – on top of the entire duration of this war. Pressure is essential. Work on new sanctions is ongoing. I thank everyone in the United States, everyone in Europe, and in the G7 countries who are preparing new sanctions measures. There will also be decisions on synchronizing all sanctions – Ukrainian sanctions in other jurisdictions and partner sanctions in the decisions of the National Security and Defense Council. A proper pace is needed, and today, specific tasks were defined regarding the sanctions agenda.
I held a meeting with the Minister of Energy and the head of Naftogaz to discuss our preparations for the upcoming heating season – electricity generation and gas-related issues. We must ensure that Ukraine has everything it needs. And this, by the way, concerns not only securing the resources – the energy itself – but also the work of all our energy professionals, the many men and women in the sector. Hundreds of thousands of our people do everything they can every day to ensure that Ukraine can keep going – and that there are no blackouts. We have already endured three winters of full-scale war. This is an enormous effort to preserve the resilience of the entire country. I thank all of you for whom this is truly a personal achievement, a personal accomplishment. And one more thing.
Today, I met with the German Foreign Minister and representatives of German defense companies. We deeply appreciate all the assistance Germany has provided – especially in the area of air defense and in supporting our country’s budgetary stability. Germany is among the global leaders. It is important that we are establishing production here in Ukraine – our joint production of advanced weaponry. One of the goals is to launch systematic production of air defense systems, and this is a strategic objective. We are now also hearing a truly strong political position from Germany regarding NATO membership for Ukraine. Together with nearly all Alliance member states, Germany views Ukraine’s path to NATO as irreversible. One way or another, we will all have to ensure security in Europe through a strong and truly effective security architecture – one that will provide Europe with reliable protection under any scenario. Russia is not changing its plans and is not looking for a way out of this war. On the contrary, they are preparing for new operations, including on the territory of European countries. That’s their principle, the Russians look for where to exploit a weakness. And they must see that there is the wherewithal to stop them everywhere. Therefore, more of our joint production, more resilience, more coordination and efficiency of our common security architecture in Europe.
Thank you to everyone who is helping! Thank you to every one of our warriors, and to all who are truly strengthening our state.
Glory to Ukraine!
First Lady Zelenska commemorated the third anniversary of the Ukrainian Center in Lithuania today.
The Ukrainian Centre in Lithuania Hosted Over 4,300 Events During Its Three Years of Operation – Olena Zelenska
30 June 2025 – 10:55
The Ukrainian Centre in Lithuania has hosted over 4,300 events for adults and children. First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska shared this in a video address marking the third anniversary of the Centre’s establishment.
The President’s wife thanked everyone involved in launching and running the Centre.
“It’s quite easy to help once. It’s much harder to keep helping over time, without asking how much longer it will take. It’s easy enough to show hospitality once. But it’s far more difficult – and more mature – to open your heart for the long haul, without asking when it will end. That is exactly how Lithuania is acting: consistently, selflessly, systematically, and reliably – from the first day of Russia’s invasion to this day,” the First Lady noted.
The Ukrainian Centre is the first cultural and educational space in an EU country created at the initiative of the First Ladies of Ukraine and Lithuania in June 2022. It daily hosts language courses, informal learning, cultural and sports activities. Each summer, it also runs a children’s camp. More than two-thirds of all activities are organized by Ukrainians themselves.
“There is no other Centre like it – one patronized at the state level by both countries. There is no other Centre that offers so many opportunities to Ukrainians – with no expiration date, no conditions, and no limitations,” said Olena Zelenska.
The Centre also showcases Ukrainian projects and creative groups at fairs, festivals, concerts, and art events. It regularly hosts international events as well.
Georgia:
For the 215th day, Rustaveli Avenue is blocked. ✊
Protests continue in 8 cities. 24-hour protests continue for almost three months.
60+ political prisoners are in jail, including most opposition leaders.
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 2:05 PM
🇬🇪 This is Georgia after:
✅ 7 months of uninterrupted protests.
✅ 60+ political prisoners.
✅ Six out of nine opposition leaders in jail.
✅ Daily protests in 8+ cities.— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 29, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Yesterday’s big rally demonstrated some shifts in the Georgian society, and I don’t mean just the first stage mentioning of a revolution. 1/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 10:21 AM
It was the least advertised and the most short-notice large rally in these months, yet the attendance was good, and perhaps most importantly, this time, no one had any expectations or hopes in a specific recipe of victory to be communicated to them; 2/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 10:21 AM
There was no “so if I come today, then what of it?” from some people, as it used to be the case before.
Everyone went there to mark that they are still there, fully understanding that there’s no magic formula expect for pushing through the hell. 3/
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 10:21 AM
A sufficient portion of the society will simply back whoever is in a non-cooperation & fighting mode, and not care about others. 4/4.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 10:21 AM
There is a lesson to be learned in this shift.
Malkhaz Amaghlobeli, the brother of detained journalist and founder of “Batumelebi”, Mzia Amaglobeli, is holding Mzia’s poster at yesterday’s protest rally.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 2:19 PM
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 3:05 PM
The parties include: Droa, Girchi-More Freedom, Ahali, UNM, Strategy Aghmashenebeli, the Federalists, Freedom Square, and European Georgia. 2/2.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 1:20 PM
🧵1/ “I am ending the hunger strike in order to move into an active phase of the fight,” said Elene Khoshtaria outside Parliament, where a statement by eight pro-Western opposition parties was presented.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 1:58 PM
2/ “We, the pro-Western political parties and groups of Georgia, whose goal is the complete dismantling of Ivanishvili’s Russian regime, the defence of Georgia’s independence and sovereignty…”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 1:58 PM
3/ “… the establishment of European-style democratic governance, the creation of a safe environment and dignified living conditions for our citizens, and the country’s integration into the European Union and NATO, jointly declare:”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 1:58 PM
4/ “We refuse to participate in the so-called local self-government elections, as we believe that in the current reality, participation in this process will not serve the interests of our citizens and will only provide a façade of legitimacy to the illegal Russian regime”.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 1:58 PM
5/ “Together with the citizens of Georgia, we continue the nationwide resistance” reads the statement signed by Freedom Square, European Georgia, UNM, Strategy Agmashenebeli, Ahali, Girchi More Freedom, Droa and The Federalists.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 1:58 PM
6/ The statement is not signed by Lelo for Georgia and Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia party, both of which say they are considering participating in the local self-government elections.
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 1:58 PM
JUST IN: Jailed democratic leaders Giorgi Vashadze, Nika Gvaramia & Mamuka Khazaradze refused to cooperate with the second summoning by the Stalin-era “Parliamentary Commission” and the Commission Head Thea Tsulukiani addressed the Prosecutor’s Office.
Longer sentences to come.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 6:13 AM
The US:
“Urging” ceasefire wouldn’t make it happen. Russia doesn’t want peace and won’t comply with urges unless you make it comply.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Moscow’s response to 🇺🇸 diplomatic efforts: visualized by @thestudyofwar.bsky.social
🚨More russian-Iranian drones hitting Ukrainian homes
🚨More missiles targeting schools, hospitals and shopping malls
🚨More war crimes, while the West offers empty threats and carrots instead of sticks— Andrew Chakhoyan 🇺🇦 (@andrewchak.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 2:47 AM
I honestly don’t know if Kellogg is an ignoramus, self-deluding, afraid to actually speak the truth because it’ll upset his boss, or some combination of all three. I can honestly say you cannot make effective policy or develop effective strategies to achieve them if you are not grounded in reality.
DPRK:
North Korean “heroes” returned home from Kursk operation. Mostly in the boxes.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Too bad, so sad.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Libya:
The tanker Vilamoura exploded off the coast of Libya while transporting about 1 million barrels of oil, according to the vessel’s management company. Prior to the incident, the ship had called at the Russian port of Ust-Luga, Bloomberg reported.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Norway and Poland:
Norway will deploy F-35 fighter jets to Poland to protect the hub in Rzeszów — a key logistical center for delivering aid to Ukraine, according to the country’s Ministry of Defense.
Well, they’re definitely needed there more.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Sanctions make Russia stronger.
The West is collapsing.
The war is going well.Am I missing something here?
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Kharkiv:
Russia bombed food warehouse in Kharkiv region last night. and they’ll try to spin it as a military object. It was food.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Aftermath of the russian drone strike on food and beverages warehouse in Kharkiv region last night.
You bastards will be punished for spoiling our beer🗿
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 11:38 AM
❗️For the first time, a new type of russian drone – Chernika – has been used to strike Kharkiv.
According to Mayor Terekhov, its warhead is similar in power to the Molniya, but the design is different. Several vehicles in a local garage complex were damaged in the attack.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 4:48 AM
S-300s, artillery, Iskanders, guided bombs, North Korean missiles, Shaheds, Geraniums, Molniyas — the list of weapons russia has used to attack Kharkiv is long. Now, add Chernika drones — reportedly resistant to electronic warfare. The terror only evolves.
en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_t…
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 5:10 PM
From Defense Express Ukraine:
First case of a Chernika (rus. for Blueberry) one-way attack drone strike has been recorded since the beginning of the invasion. The reports were confirmed by Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkiv, a heavily populated city in northeastern Ukraine. Drones of this series are manufactured in two versions, the light Chernika-1 and the heavier Chernika-2, Defense Express notes.
The russian invasion forces have been using these unmanned aerial vehicles for quite some time: in March 2024, reports stated that more than 7,500 Chernika-1s had been manufactured by then and the total production of Chernika-2s stood at 4,000 in April 2024.
Design-wise, the Chernika-1 is a “flying wing” type of aircraft made of foam plastic. The declared maximum flight range is 80 km, cruising speed: 75 km/h, altitude ceiling: 1.5 km.
Launch can be done by hand or facilitated by a catapult. The warhead weighs 0.7 kg, probably of the high-explosive type. This drone is mainly used against non-armored vehicles and infantry.
The Chernika-2 is more dangerous compared to its smaller counterpart. The warhead weight increases to 3.5 kg, allowing it to destroy dugouts and heavy equipment. The operating range also grows to 100 km.
However, most importantly, some russian sources report the presence of a target homing function, making it effectively invulnerable to electronic warfare during an attack. Chernika-2 is also equipped with an autopilot function to a specific target area, so the operator doesn’t need to constantly control it, only at the terminal stage of the one-way sortie, right before the strike.
This, in combination with the usage of low-cost materials, makes the Chernika family a very dangerous weapon, both in operational capability and scale of manufacture. Conceptually, they resemble another russian drone, Molniya, which also relies on easily obtainable and cheap materials.
Worth noting, between such a ramped-up production, impressive range, and the fact these drones have been used on the frontline for over a year already, it is surprising to see the first strike on Kharkiv to only happen now, because the nearers districts of this city are mere 25 km from the russian border.
More at the link.
Kryvyi Rih
A Russian/Iranian Shahed flying bomb drone, equipped with a dive siren like a Nazi Stuka dive-bomber, strikes the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih on the morning of June 30. Three people were wounded in the attack – one of them seriously.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Olenivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
The Center for Human Rights in Armed Conflict published a detailed report proving that the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war at the Olenivka detention facility in July 2022 was a russian crime carefully planned at the moscow level. At least 50 prisoners were killed, and over 100 were injured.
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Please, read it — at least the executive summary.
Speak about Ukrainian POWs!
Be the voice of justice.www.chr-ac.org/investigatio…
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Russian occupied Crimea:
The Crimean Bridge has been closed. Local media report that nearly a dozen Ukrainian fighter jets launched Storm Shadow missiles toward occupied Crimea.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Astrakhan Oblast, Russia:
Russian media report that Ukrainian missiles are heading toward Astrakhan, where the Kapustin Yar testing range is located — a site where the “Oreshnik” system is stored. They also mention dozens of drones.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 3:42 PM
A missile threat was reported in Astrakhan, 800 km from Ukraine’s border – marking its first air raid alert since the war began. Restrictions were imposed on flights at Astrakhan Airport due to Ukrainian missile risks.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 4:41 PM
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Open thread!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Traveller
A thought, or maybe even a suggestion, back in August 2023 the Moscow International Business Center was very minimally attacked with some damage done, but not much.
It is (to me) a very attractive target, See at Link below:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_International_Business_Center#/media/File:Moscow_City_jun25.jpg
The beauty of attacking this crown jewel in Moscow is that it is a high prestige target and, if the strike timed for 3:30~4:00am, there is a legitimate defense that this specifically was designed to avoid Russian civilian causalities insofar as possible.
I see lots of pluses here, but there maybe minuses that I just don’t understand (yet…always happily willing to be enlightened).
In any case, this should certainly get normal Muscovite’s attention.
Best Wishes, Traveller
Traveller
Editing time has passed for me…so let me argue against myself for a moment…Such an attack would be so visible as to enrage Russians even more, promoting even more heightened acts of Russian violence.
The harming or hopeful even destruction of a refinery, oil depots, or caches of arms exploding is…very harmful economically but more importantly, sort of Ho-Hum to most ordinary Russians.
in other words, keep doing the harm that is being done. Traveller
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
Adam, thanks for this post. It also partially answers my question from a few days ago about Ukraine’s theory of victory. Lots more needed if Ukraine is to go back on the offensive & threaten Putin’s existing gains. Otherwise, it is treading water & waiting for the Putin regime & the Russian economy to collapse, & that is likely to be a long wait.
Tatarigami_UA had also commented a few months ago that, while Russia is very unlikely to achieve its objective of conquering all or even most of Ukraine, both sides can still (& indeed are on the trajectory toward) losing this war. On current trend, Russia can keep Ukraine in an extremely abnormal state of affairs almost indefinitely.
YY_Sima Qian
Somewhat OT: Russia’s self-inflicted semi-isolation has led to expanding Chinese cultural influence & soft power there (gift link to NYT article below):
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
I like that Ukraine is going after the Occupied territories more aggressively. I hope that it raises the morale of those Ukrainians still trapped there, while it gives the Russian authorities something to think about other than how to mistreat said Ukrainians.
I have tried not to jump on the bandwagon of those foretelling the destruction of the Russian economy, preferring to cheer from the sidelines. But with the Murder Goblin actually cutting the military budget even by a mere blip, it might finally be really happening. I wonder how this is going to go. I know it won’t be pretty whatever happens.
Meanwhile, with all eyes on Europe, the USA and Ukraine, the Russian Far East is on fire. 1.4 million hectares so far, have been consumed. Not just forests and trees, but houses, hamlets, and important highways and roads, have all gone up in smoke, which has drifted all the way to South Korea. It’s visible by satellite and it’s not going away soon. The fire fighters are under paid, shocking I know, there are too few of them, and help from Moscow is not coming. With all the money, men, and equipment being dedicated to the War In Ukraine, the resources simply aren’t there even if Moscow was inclined to help in the first place. Spoiler: It’s not and no rain is expected for the next 2 months. How this ecological disaster will end is anybody’s guess, but is it any wonder that so many of Russia’s eastern provinces, like Siberia, don’t want to be part of the Russian Federation any more? Especially with comedians making fun of the Murder Goblin on Azerbaijan TV.
Thank you Adam. I so appreciate your hard work.
glc
@YY_Sima Qian: Seconded, notably the thanks.
Meanwhile presumably both sides are preparing some further surprises. I suppose the pace of production of various types of weapons is not subject to enormous surprises, but the types themselves (or the way they are used) may be.
Europe is structurally a mess, and well aware of it, but their theory of how to make progress ran into difficulties with the Maastricht treaty. I hope they’ll find their way forward – I don’t particularly expect it, but one hopes. The drawbacks of muddling along are clear enough.
On the other hand, I used to take the US as a good model for a federal system …