(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The cost:
Our dear Plast friend, Roman “Orlyk” Oryshchenko, officer, commander of a company in the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade “Chorni Zaporozhtsi” has fallen in action. He was always so positive, bright and determined, ready to share his experience and mentor others. This is such a tragic loss.
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:36 AM
At 3;50 AM local time in Ukraine/8:50 PM EDT, about 2/3rds of Ukraine is under air raid alert for ballistic missile and drone strikes.
Kyiv right now ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Families with small children are hiding in basements and metro stations. Russia is trying to get them even there
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Kyiv right now.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:32 PM
It’s only 1am and it’s already easily top 5 of the worst nighttime air attacks
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Explosions just don’t stop and the sky is red and my heart starts skipping beats and I don’t fucking know anymore
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:22 PM
This has been going on for at least the past seven hours:
As more Russian Shaheds make it to Kyiv and air defense shakes the night ahead of a possible missile attack, I can’t stop thinking: there was a choice. Give Ukraine what it needs to stop this. Instead, they’re twisting Ukraine’s arm and emboldening Russia.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 2:58 PM
President Zelenskyy surprised a young Danish man today:
President #Zelenskyy awarded Jens Fogh Thomsen, an 11-year-old from #Denmark, the Future of #Ukraine Award for his volunteer efforts.
Jens raised over 34,000 Danish kroner by selling handmade Easter decorations to buy school supplies for Ukrainian children affected by the war.
— Eugene McParland 🇺🇦 (@eugenemcparland.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Presents “Future of Ukraine” Award to 11-Year-Old Danish Volunteer Jens Fogh Thomsen
3 July 2025 – 18:12
In Denmark, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented the “Future of Ukraine” award to 11-year-old volunteer Jens Fogh Thomsen for supporting Ukrainian children.
“I am deeply grateful to you on behalf of all our people – especially the children of Ukraine. You know that they are now under Russian attacks and trying to survive. After all, they love Ukraine, and they have friends like you. You are a great friend of Ukraine. Thank you for the backpacks, for raising funds to help Ukrainian children. All our children are proud to have such friends from Denmark. We would be happy to welcome you and your parents to Ukraine,” the Head of State said.
Jens began helping Ukraine last year after seeing news reports about Ukrainian children who had lost their homes due to Russian aggression. Since then, he has been handcrafting Easter decorations – blue and yellow beaded chicks. Through their sale, Jens has raised over 34,000 Danish kroner, which he used to purchase school backpacks and supplies for Ukrainian children affected by the war.
The “Future of Ukraine” award is a new presidential distinction established by President Zelenskyy by decree on May 29 of this year. The very next day, he issued the first decree awarding 24 children. Jens Fogh Thomsen became the first foreigner to receive this award.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address to the gala dinner of the EU Council from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
President’s Address to the Participants of the Gala Dinner Marking the Start of Denmark’s Presidency of the EU Council
3 July 2025 – 22:36
Thank you very much!
Your Majesties, thank you so much!
And dear Mette, my friend, thank you so much for the invitation to such a beautiful city!
Such a strong people – thank you for your support! Thanks!
And, of course, dear Ursula, dear António, all our friends, colleagues!
Once again, congratulations to Denmark – our close friend – and to you personally, Mette, along with your team, as Denmark begins its Presidency of the EU Council. We can be confident – this will be a time of strong and principled decisions. And that means – a time of predictability. Predictability has become a rare thing these days. But Denmark is the country that leaves no room for doubt. It’s a country, and a people, we can rely on. Denmark brings a sense of predictability. You keep your promises, and together we achieve meaningful results. Thank you for that. And I also want to thank our friends leading the EU institutions – António and Ursula. Even on such symbolic days like the start of the Presidency, we don’t stop at symbolism – we make real decisions. It’s important. We talked about how important it is to close the gaps in defense funding. We’re working to get real results from our joint defense programs. And we’re getting things ready so the EU can keep its promises. Ukraine is ready – ready to open the accession clusters, ready to move forward with the negotiations, and ready for decisions that benefit both sides. Thank you for your support.
Ladies and gentlemen,
We in Ukraine created a special national award – for children. I told this story today to Mette. It’s for boys and girls who have shown bravery during Russian attacks, or helped in other dangerous situations, volunteered, or shown civic leadership. The award is called “The Future of Ukraine,” and truly our future depends on whether we can raise children who care, who are not indifferent to others, who are willing to help. As this visit began, I had the honor of presenting this award to a boy who lives here in Denmark. He’s a Danish citizen. His name is Jens, and he’s just 11 years old – like my son. He’s 11, but his kindness and care have already made a difference – and inspired many adults. Jens made Easter crafts in blue and yellow – Ukraine’s national colors – sold them, and bought backpacks to send to Ukrainian children who need – really need – help. It was deeply moving. But if you think about it, this was also deeply political: wanting to help, to support others, to not stay on the sidelines in a time of war – that’s a powerful message in itself. And this is exactly the kind of message that lies at the heart of the European Union, at the heart of our unity.
We are united. And we work together. And our Europe needs the EU – for mutual support, for shared protection, and for the very values shown by Jens, by you, and by millions of Europeans every day: compassion, sincerity, and the will to help someone in need – even if that person is far from your home. And we must not forget this. All our European institutions, all our agreements, all our cooperation and joint work for security – it’s all built around this idea – that Europeans care for one another and act like human beings in the fullest sense of the word.
This is why we need the European Union.
And this is why we must defend Europe – not only from outside enemies, but also from those inside who try to replace solidarity with division, and compassion with a cold disregard for anyone but themselves.
Dear friends,
The next 6 months of Denmark’s EU Presidency will go by fast – time always flies. The most important thing is that we achieve what we all truly want.
First, we need to protect the EU from those who are trying to break it apart – often for personal and corrupt reasons. The EU must stay strong, because it gives strength to every European nation in global competition. And the EU must keep its promises – especially when it comes to enlargement. And I hope that during Denmark’s Presidency, the EU accession negotiations with Ukraine will move forward, and the clusters will finally be opened.
Second, we all understand that Russia is not just some dangerous neighbor, that much is obvious. It’s something more deliberate – an anti-European project. Everyone in Europe can clearly see this – Russia invests in everything that goes against our European way of life. That’s why we must not let them win – not in this war, and not in any part of our future. We need biting sanctions against Russia. We need steady defense support for Ukraine. We need to build up Europe’s own defense industry – so that Russia cannot outmatch us in any area. All of this is vital for keeping Europe safe. And we have to keep putting pressure on Russia – to make them stop the war, respect their neighbors, and choose peace. As long as Russia gets a high price for its oil – it keeps fighting. That’s why we need a strict price cap. As long as Russia finds ways to buy parts and equipment for weapons – it keeps killing. That’s why we need a full stop to all supplies to Russia of anything that is – or could be – used for making weapons. It is high time we established an efficient international platform to control dual-use exports – and it could be one of achievements of the Danish Presidency, we can work on it together. And we need to cut off Putin and his buddies from money. As long as Russian banks can still operate in Europe and other key parts of the world – Russia keeps ignoring diplomacy. We must push it back toward diplomacy.
Third – even if it’s not easy – we must do everything we can to keep cooperation between Europe and the United States strong. Yes, Europe should rely more on itself – especially when it comes to defense and protecting our people. But it’s always better to be in an alliance than in disagreement. So the next 6 months should bring real progress – to protect our partnerships and make our cooperation stronger.
No matter what anyone says, Europe is and will stay one of the world’s strongest players and a leader in human rights. Europe must also become a global leader in technology – especially in defense technologies. That’s a key goal. And most importantly, Europe must be a continent of peace. Let’s use the next 6 months to make the right decisions – especially for that.
Thank you!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s his joint presser with a bunch of EU officials:
And remarks about a joint venture with the US to produce drones:
Georgia:
Marching through Tbilisi streets on day 218 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪
— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 11:10 AM
This potentially very important development is happening at the moment in Tbilisi👇🏻
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 11:43 AM
🔴 21-year-old Giorgi Mindadze has been sentenced to 5 years in prison by Judge Nino Galustashvili.
⭕️He was convicted of “attacking a police officer”.
#GeorgiaProtests
#RepressionInGeorgia— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) July 3, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Nani Tsulaia, the mother of 21-year-old regime prisoner Giorgi Mindadze who was sentenced to 5 years today.
She calmed people and call for resourcefulness, believing in our victory.
A true Georgian lady, the one we learn in school from history and legends.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 10:37 AM
And it’s her birthday too…
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The Georgian Dream’s Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze reiterates that the democratic leaders are in jail for not recognizing the legitimacy of the Parliament.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 4:36 PM
The PRC:
China’s foreign minister tells EU that Beijing cannot afford Russia to lose in Ukraine, media reports #Ukraine
— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) July 3, 2025 at 7:09 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas on July 3 that the country cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine amid fears the U.S. would shift focus towards Beijing, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing sources familiar with the conversation.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, Wang’s reported comments suggest that Russia’s war in Ukraine may serve China’s strategic needs as focus is deviated away from Beijing’s mounting preparation to launch its own eventual invasion into Taiwan.
China has been a key ally to Russia during its full-scale war, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and becoming the leading source of dual-use goods fueling the Russian defense industry.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has not managed to broker a promised ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, has long viewed China as the United States’ main adversary and is predominantly focused on relations between the two nations.
In June, Bloomberg reportedTrump is pulling back from pressuring China over its support for Russia’s war effort, instead prioritizing other aspects of the U.S.-China relationship. The publication reported that the administration lowered the issue of Russia’s war against Ukraine on its list of foreign policy priorities and is focusing on bilateral issues with Beijing, though they noted Trump could still shift course.
The frankness of Wang’s reported admission was greeted with surprise by EU official, according to Hong Kong-based SCMP, amid China’s past public statements in favor of a peace deal. Two sources familiar with the meeting told SCMP that they believed Wang was providing Kallas with a lesson in realpolitik during the four-hour encounter.
Wang on July 3 again reportedly rejected Western accusations that it was providing funding and weaponry to support Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
Wang’s comments come amid waning support from Kyiv’s main military backer, the United States. On July 1, the U.S. Defense Department paused shipments of key weapons systems to Ukraine, including Patriot air defense missiles and precision-guided munitions.
I’m really not sure what to make of this. At one level, sure it makes some strategic sense from the PRC’s perspective, but at the same time it clearly misreads Trump who could care less what happens to Ukraine and the Ukrainians. Frankly, I’m not completely unconvinced that Trump doesn’t want to see Putin win because he’s a AA authoritarian. Which is an authoritarian that punches down on those weaker than him while sucking up to those more powerful like Putin and Xi.
This type of statement also goes against everything I know about how Chinese officials communicate. Senior Chinese officials DO NOT make direct statements like this. Some of this is cultural as China is a high context communication culture, but some of it is also how PRC officials strategically communicate. If direct statements need to be made, they’re made by junior personnel, which makes them very easy to disavow or ignore.
The US:
“We had a call [with Putin]… we spoke about Ukraine, and im not happy about that… we didn’t make any progress…”
So?? Push! Make him listen, for goddess’s sake, you have all the cards!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Who could’ve ever imagined such a thing?
From France24 republished by Yahoo News:
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday told his US counterpart Donald Trump that Moscow would not give up on its war aims in Ukraine during a lengthy phone call – their sixth publicly disclosed chat this year – that also touched on Iran and the Middle East.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told US President Donald Trump in a phone call on Thursday that Moscow wants a negotiated end to the Ukraine war but will not step back from its original goals, a Kremlin aide said.
In a wide-ranging conversation that also covered Iran and the Middle East, Trump “again raised the issue of an early end to military action” in Ukraine, the aide, Yuri Ushakov, told reporters.
“Vladimir Putin, for his part, noted that we continue to seek a political and negotiated solution to the conflict,” Ushakov said.
Putin briefed Trump on the implementation of agreements reached between Russia and Ukraine last month to exchange prisoners-of-war and dead soldiers, Ushakov said, and told him that Moscow was ready to continue negotiations with Kyiv.
(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)
Here’s the confirmation of the US cutting Ukraine off:
Per reporting by my colleague @olliecarroll.bsky.social, US has cancelled 8,000-ish 155mm shells for Ukraine. That is 20% of current MONTHLY production. How that would have materially affected US readiness is hard to see. That’s before getting onto 25 Stingers & 92 AIM-7, which are being phased out
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:17 AM
President Zelenskyy is going to talk to Trump about this tomorrow:
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are expected to discuss the abrupt halt in some key US weapons deliveries to Kyiv in a call on Friday, according to people familiar with the planning, who said the Ukrainian president will also raise potential future arms sales.
www.ft.com/content/edac…— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) July 3, 2025 at 6:36 AM
I would not expect a reversal of the US decision.
Germany:
BILD reports, citing government circles, that the German government is currently trying to obtain approval from the US government for the procurement of two MIM-104 Patriot fire units, which Germany would finance for #Ukraine.
1/2
— German Aid to Ukraine (@deaidua.org) July 3, 2025 at 1:14 PM
According to BILD information, the Ukrainian government had approached the German government with the request because they could not make any progress in the US themselves.
2/2
— German Aid to Ukraine (@deaidua.org) July 3, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Via X (Twitter), one of the co-authors also makes it clear that the deal proposed by the German government also involves hundreds of missiles, which are also to be purchased at the German government’s expense for Ukraine.
— German Aid to Ukraine (@deaidua.org) July 3, 2025 at 5:41 PM
I am neither surprised by this, nor am I surprised that the Trump administration put the breaks on once it sussed out this purchase was by Germany on behalf of Ukraine. Again, my professional assessment is that Trump falls somewhere between not caring what happens to Ukraine to actively wanting Putin to win.
Sweden:
Sweden to provide Ukraine with over 10 new Archer artillery guns, long-range strike weapons #Ukraine
— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) July 3, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Ukraine has developed a multifunctional UAV called “POP Fly,” which serves as an analogue to the Switchblade.
The reconnaissance version has a range of 100–120 km, while the strike version ranges from 50–100 km depending on the warhead (2.5–5 kg).
militarnyi.com/uk/news/ukra…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Kyiv:
Russia’s air attack is ongoing. It’s been hours of air defense fire, explosions and the whirring of Russian drones in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Trump said he “didn’t make any progress with [Putin] today at all” — and that is apparent as much as ever now.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) July 3, 2025 at 7:03 PM
At least six huge, building-shaking explosions in Kyiv just after the Ukrainian Air Force warned of incoming Russian ballistic missiles. Hell here tonight. Putin must absolutely feel he can attack with impunity. He just spoke to Trump by phone hours ago.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) July 3, 2025 at 8:18 PM
And the Trump admin halted air defense missiles this week. No threat of new sanctions because, to paraphrase Secretary of State Rubio, it would close the door to negotiations. Well, Putin reiterated earlier he wasn’t negotiating; he said he would continue to wage his war. He is proving that tonight.
— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) July 3, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Reports that eight ballistic missiles were just fired by Russia at Kyiv – I heard six airbursts, which were probably interceptions. Threat now of more ballistic missile launches from Russia’s Voronezh Oblast.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Reports that eight ballistic missiles were just fired by Russia at Kyiv – I heard six airbursts, which were probably interceptions. Threat now of more ballistic missile launches from Russia’s Voronezh Oblast.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Another big bang in Kyiv, and another. Blast waves set off car alarms and even wafted my dressing gown…
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Russian/Iranian drones swarming around Kyiv just now – never known it so bad. They seem to be circling around the city and then coming in to attack.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Just heard a drone come in for a dive, then an explosion – not too close but it doesn’t seem it was shot down.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Another sound of a diving drone – the Russians have attached sirens to them to instill terror like Stuka dive bombers – and an explosion. Not close, but not far enough! More anti-aircraft gunfire – Kyiv’s defenders hard at work. Another siren, and another blast.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Hearing this sound VERY regularly here in Kyiv tonight.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Hearing so many of these dive-bomb attacks I’ve lost count. What I’m not hearing so much of is anti-aircraft fire, unfortunately.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Poltava:
Two people reported dead and at least 11 injured in russian drone attack on Poltava this morning.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Poltava: Emergency teams have concluded rescue efforts at the sites of this morning’s Russian attack.
The enemy strike killed 2, injured 47, while emergency workers successfully rescued 10 people.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Poltava earlier this morning. Three russian drones strike one after another.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Donetsk:
Over the past 24 hours, six people were killed and 12 injured in russian attacks across Donetsk Oblast. 82 civilian sites were damaged, including 24 homes.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Russian occupied Luhansk:
Russian sources write that the mayor of Lugansk appointed by the Russians was blown up. The explosion occurred on Tarasa Shevchenko Street in Luhansk.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 8:26 AM
/2. Video from the place where the Russian-appointed mayor of Lugansk was reportedly blown up.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 8:28 AM
/3. Manolis Vasilyevich Pilavov Luhansk mayor from 2014 to 2023. He was charged by the SBU Investigation Department in the Luhansk region under Article 258 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine for participation in an illegal armed formation.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Russian occupied Crimea:
Launched from uncrewed surface vehicles, FPV drones and copters with payload drop capabilities destroyed three Russian radar stations in Crimea, as stated by Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:55 AM
💥Ukrainian heavy drones launched from the marine drones bombard Russian radar systems in Crimea!
Strikes were carried out on the components of the Russian “Nebo-M” radar system:
• RLM-M 55Zh6M “Nebo-M”
• RLM-D 55Zh6M “Nebo-M”
• Radar Command Post (KU RLS) 55Zh6M “Nebo-M”— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:38 AM
/2. One of the heavy drones launched from an unmanned marine platform found by Russians in Crimea. After takeoff, the drones go on a one-way mission and do not return. According to Russians, drones also self-destruct approximately 15 minutes after falling.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:46 AM
/3. Location in Crimea where components of the Russian Nebo-M radar system were targeted (45.3474031, 32.4985225)
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:53 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Russian media confirm the death of Guard Major General, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, former commander of the 155th Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces Mikhail Gudkov, as well as his close comrade, Russian Navy officer Lieutenant Colonel Nariman Shikhaliyev.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 5:55 AM
/2. As its now claimed by Russian sources, 4 HIMARS missiles were fired at the Russian base in Korenevo, Kursk Region. Various Russian sources report from 10 to more than 20 Russians killed in the attack, many of whom were officers.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 5:55 AM
Yelets, Russia:
Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed a successful strike on JSC “Energia” in Yelets, Russia. The facility produces batteries and modules for Iskander-M missiles, Kh-35U cruise missiles, and other specialized systems.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 9:34 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Open thread!
A Day of Blissful Ignorance
Gin & Tonic
“Orlyk” was a friend of my wife’s.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: My sincerest condolences.
May his memory be a blessing.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Too many good people gone. I don’t even mention them unless I see them here.
YY_Sima Qian
Here is a summary by Finbarr Bermingham, the SCMP reporter who produced the scoop:
Based on his past reporting on Sino-EU relations, Bermingham seems to enjoy very good sources w/in the EU, but here he too is reliant upon the interpretation of whichever EU diplomat who was in the room now leaking to Bermingham.
Like Adam, I would be very surprised if the top PRC diplomat (that being Wang Yi) was quite so blunt in such a high level meeting, leading up to a high stakes Sino-EU leadership summer at the end of Jul., no less. It could be confirmation bias on the part of EU officials, over-interpreting or taking out of context a remark made by Wang. I would also not be surprised, though, if Wang was being a bit patronizing w/ Kallas, who many in the PRC thinks of as a lightweight ideologue in over her head in great power realpolitik. The Kyiv Independent is also wrong to suggest that that the PRC is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, but I do not expect the paper to have much Asia expertise, & it is probably just repeating the vibes out of DC.
Realistically, the PRC almost certainly does not want Russia to lose (meaning a humiliating defeat that threatens the stability of the Putin regime or even the unity of the Federation), as the PRC would lose an important “co-belligerent” in the Great Power Competition w/ the US. That does not mean the PRC wants to make sure that Russia wins (meaning absorption of Ukraine into a Neo-Russian Empire, regardless whether a nominally independent rump named Ukraine exists or not), that would make Russia too powerful.
My WAG is that Wang might have communicated to Kallas that the PRC will not support a resolution to the war that results in the fall of the Putin regime & the dissolution of the Russian Federation. That is the PRC’s core interest, not whether Ukraine is distracting the US (the ME is doing far better at that), & not which Ukrainian territories Russia does or does not occupy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: My condolences!
Doug R
Reuters confirmed today that Russian Admiral taken out by Ukraine.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
I am so sorry, Gin and Tonic. Condolences to you and your wife.
Ukraine keeps losing their best people.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I understand. Believe me, I understand all too well.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam. And also grateful for YY_Sima Qian’s perspective. I’m hoping that the EU and NATO retain enough self-determination to understand the necessity of openly backing and supporting Ukraine, even if it means defying both the US and PRC.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Two things. First, my professional impression has always been that the dissolution of the USSR, especially its chaotic nature, FREAKED OUT the PRC leadership. My take is this is rooted in the neo-Confucian elements of Chinese culture, which prize orderliness. Though I don’t want to make this overly culturally deterministic. Second, I once heard an address by the Defense Attache assigned to the Chinese Embassy in DC to a group of US military personnel. My boss – a commanding general – was in attendance and as his senior advisor so was I. The vast majority of the attendees kept applauding at what were backhanded compliments at best and insults at worst. Of course you had to understand how Chinese communicate to recognize that these were statements coded to draw applause from an American audience while delivering insults and harsh truths (from the PRC’s perspective) that the Chinese embassy personnel in attendance would recognize for what they were meant to be and convey. There was a lot of harumphing among the rest of the staff when I sent my summary and interpretation of the remarks around as all the others had been variations on how positive a speech it was, how forward looking in envisioning PRC-US cooperation, how complimentary it was. Then I come along with: 1) He spent an hour insulting us to our faces and almost everyone applauded every insult and 2) here’s the real important stuff, here’s why we know it’s important because of the structure and word choice of those portions of the speech, and the important stuff is not really suggesting a lot of future cooperation. The only one not harrumphing was the Old Man as he appreciated the reality check.
My experience is that senior Chinese officials do NOT communicate directly.
YY_Sima Qian
@Westyny: Frankly, I am not sure the PRC cares if the EU/NATO ramps up military aid & enable Ukraine to go on the offensive, again. That leaves the European powers w/ less resources to expend symbolic naval forays into the Asia Pacific region, & a further chastened Russia will be that much more dependent on the PRC.
However, Beijing does not want to see Putin fall &, even more importantly, does not want to see Russia either becoming pro-West or dissolving.
Sally
@YY_Sima Qian: My first thought was “mansplaining”? could be completely wrong. But she is female, blond, attractive – a common target for mansplaining.
I could be influenced by my amazement at the amount of misogyny there is in the world. It is spread far and wide, like a mycelium throughout every continent. Beyond race, beyond religion, beyond politics, beyond tribe. So many men have nothing but contempt for women. Would never see them as equals, let alone deign to negotiate with them. Kallas is pretty tough, so I hope she can use this to her advantage.
Always remember Mr. Wang, your strength is your weakness and your (her) weakness is your (her) strength.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Agree. The dissolution of the USSR (& its chaotic aftermath) have weighed heavily on the minds of the CPC leadership since ’90, Xi is not unique here. There is a reason that CPC leaderships from Deng on refused to disavow Mao, despite Mao’s obvious faults, & their own (in the case of Deng’s generation) or that of their parents’ (in the case of Xi’s generation) victimization by Mao. They acknowledge Mao’s mistakes, & the horrendous consequences of such mistakes, but they do not delegitimize Mao. The thinking is that if inside of the charismatic & indeed totemic “founding father” of a regime lived a monster & an icon, slaying the monster also destroys the icon, & thus delegitimizes the regime the person helped to establish & consolidate. The CPC leadership from Mao on had believed that Khrushchev disavowing Stalin the was the start of the delegitimization of the Communist regime & the USSR.
CPC leaders also believe that, through perestroika, Gorbachev made the Communist Party increasingly irrelevant to the lives of the Soviet citizens. Jiang, Hu & now Xi have all tried to revitalize the CPC down to the grassroots level, precisely to avoid that fate, but Xi has had more success by reintegrating the CPC apparatus w/ the government bureaucracy, & now the PRC government/CPC regime complex has much greater governance capacity, & far greater resources at its disposal, to at once provide valuable services, conduct pervasive surveillance & implement strict control (when deemed necessary), across the population.
On your 2nd point, I can recall only 2 somewhat similar past incidents to Wang’s alleged bluntness. One was Yang Jiechi (Wang’s predecessor as top PRC diplomat) telling SE Asian diplomats at a conference during the early ’10s, at a time when several ASEAN countries (the Philippines, Vietnam, & to a lesser extent Singapore, Malaysia & Indonesia) were all challenging the PRC’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, along the lines of “China is a big country, you are small countries, deal w/ it.” The other was Yang Jiechi (w/ Wang Yi at his side), again, during the meeting w/ Sullivan & Blinken at Anchorage in early ’21, in response to Blinken/Sullivan’s comments before the meeting that the US intends to approach the PRC from “a position of strength”, to which Yang replied “the days of the US approaching the PRC from ‘a position of strength’ are over.” In both instances Yang was clearly playing to the increasingly nationalist domestic zeitgeist. Not the case w/ Wang here, his comments were not aimed at domestic audiences.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sally: I thought about misogyny, but it is extremely rare, & unprecedented for someone of Wang’s stature, for Chinese diplomats to betray their biases openly. I think, in general, PRC officials hold EU officials in contempt: waffling between sucking to Trump’s US (to keep Trump on side, however fleetingly) or acting more independently, incapable of acting independently, incapable of herding the member state cats, transparent hypocrisy on Ukraine & Gaza, unable to affect outcomes in realpolitik, & yet likes to proclaim the primacy of “rules based international order”. To the PRC officials, Kallas is the epitome of such European attitude.
Sally
@YY_Sima Qian: Fair enough. Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
Westyny
@YY_Sima : How far do you think the PRC would go to prop up Putin?
NotoriousJRT
@Gin & Tonic: So much loss. I am very sorry.
YY_Sima Qian
@Westyny: I think the PRC is agnostic to the outcome of the war in Ukraine, whether the “final settlement” is lopsided in Russia’s favor, in Ukraine’s favor, or relatively “even”. In the meantime, the PRC is willing to buy all the discounted oil/gas/other commodities that Russia can sell, w/o becoming overly dependent on Russia. The PRC is also willing to sell all the dual-use components & machinery that Russia can afford to purchase. Same goes for civilian goods. What Putin can do w/ the money obtain from selling to the PRC, & the military-industrial production facilitated by purchasing dual use & civilian goods from the PRC, is up to Putin.
Similarly, one could say the PRC purchasing grains from Ukraine (at market rates) is helping to fund the Ukrainian war effort, & the selling of civilian drone component & other civilian goods/gear (such as 3D printers to fabricate structural components for drones) is facilitating Ukrainian advancements in drone & electronic warfare. The important difference is that there is a strategic dimension to the PRC’s transactions w/ Russia, while the transactions w/ Ukraine are commercial activities by PRC companies, neither encouraged nor discouraged by the PRC government. For example, I doubt the PRC is selling precision CNCs to Ukraine to help the latter produce missiles, although I do not know for sure, either. Some may get to Ukraine via 3rd parties. We do know that the PRC is selling large numbers of precision CNCs to Russia.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sally: If there is any personal bias, I suspect it would be against Kallas’ relatively young age. Chinese bureaucratic culture is suspicious of young upstarts.
Sally
@YY_Sima Qian: Yes, I meant to add young to that list. Thanks. As I said, misogyny is a mycelium, you can’t see it as it is below the surface, but it affects everything above ground. So even if the senior men don’t “show” it, I believe it is there.
NobodySpecial
Firstly, Adam, thank you again for your efforts to witness this conflict to the rest of us and your analysis. I’m very grateful.
One question: How much does targeting officers degrade anything at this junction, given how much of the war has become, well, remote control? What’s the practical effects on command and control of the elimination of someone like the Major General or a bunch of colonels? Thanks in advance.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sally: Misogyny is certainly deeply engrained in Chinese bureaucratic culture (just look at the gender breakdown of the CPC Central Committee), but rarely shown on the surface.
YY_Sima Qian
Ughh! Massive Russian air raid against Kyiv, w/ missiles & drones. Seems to have inflicted a lot damage. The Consular section of the Polish embassy was damaged. I doubt it was a mistake.