Meet Democrat Aftyn Behn!
Last Tuesday changed everything.
A special Congressional election in Tennessee that was flying under the radar and overshadowed by Virginia, New Jersey and the California initiative is suddenly front-and-center in a newly charged environment for the Dems.
How did we get here?
Republican Congressman Mark Green (who won the 7th District by 20 points) resigned in July to “take a job in the private sector” (can you say Republican grift?), opening up what the party assumed was a safe seat.
At the time, it probably did indeed seem safe!
Why the (misplaced) confidence? The 7th District’s unholy birth resulted from a Republican gerrymandering effort that carved up liberal Nashville into three separate districts. The 7th covers the western and northern parts of Davidson County, and a whole bunch of rural counties. The other significant population center is Clarksville, Tennessee’s fifth largest city, with a substantial military population attributable to its proximity to Fort Campbell.
Trump won this district by 22 points in 2024. Cook has it at R+10.
The Republican candidate, Mark Van Etta, survived an expensive and bruising primary (October 7) by tying himself closely to Trump. (Anyone think he might be regretting that now?)
The Democrat, Aftyn Behn, squeaked out a plurality in a four-way contest. Aftyn was a community organizer and state representative in Nashville. Here’s how she was described by the Tennessee Outlook:
Behn ran as a progressive outsider, advocating that the only way a Democratic candidate could win the heavily Republican district was with an energized turnout.
She distinguished herself as “a firebrand attitude at debates”.
Here’s a link to Aftyn’s website.
There is plenty of dark money flowing in on the Republican side, including an unidentified donor who produced a commercial featuring Van Etta in his military uniform as a “MAGA warrior.” That could backfire now!
Special Election on Dec 2 / Early voting starts this Wednesday
The special election will be held on December 2 (less than two months after the primary).
The Democrats are getting fired up. DNC Chair Ken Martin is in Nashville this weekend hosting campaign and GOTV events for Aftyn.
It’s not the long-shot that the District’s raw numbers would suggest. Polls before last week’s election showed the Republican with a 52-44 advantage – an entirely bridgeable gap with a fired-up electorate and substantial turnout.
We supported Virgin (oops, Virgil) Thornton in VA, who won with something like 51% of the vote. We’ve made a difference before; maybe we can do it again!
We’d like to get Aftyn $7,500 in Balloon Juice bucks by this Wednesday – when early voting starts!
Right now is when the $ can do the most good!
Who doesn’t need insurance?
Would it be great to have one more Democratic vote in the House?
Not only that, but a win here – in TN of all places! – could be our insurance policy if they can pressure one of the 4 Republicans to remove their signature from the Epstein discharge petition.
It’s one thing to be pressured when you are the ONE VOTE that could make or break it. There’s a lot less pressure if they have to get TWO OF YOU to fold.
WaterGirl
I’ll keep an eye on my email in case an Angel comes forward.
edit: Starting at 12:50 pm, we have an Angel match for up to $50 per person, for a total of $500!
Thank you, HinTN! Maybe we can help bring this home for Tennessee.
edit 2: And we have an Anonymous Angel Match for up to $25 per person, for a total of $250!
edit 3: So two donations of $25 and one more donation of $50 before both Angel matches are complete!
edit 4: Both Angel matches are complete! And we are about 1/3 of the way to our goal!
WaterGirl
Today’s sidebar pick – the adorable snowmen were made by Avalune, and I’m posting them in honor of the first snow today!
Fair Economist
This is the kind of long shot I think is well worth supporting. Even if we don’t win, we reward the people who try, and we have to try even in districts we won’t win to win larger contests they are part of.
Heidi Mom
I tried to donate $25 but may not have succeeded–instead of concluding with “thank you,” the process took me back to the beginning. Then again, I may have donated $50. Oh well.
HinTN
We’re headed to Cincinnati, where it’s supposed to snow tomorrow. Leaving the cats to the tender mercies of their beloved pet sitter. The place is wintertized in preparation for the freezing temps tonight and tomorrow night. Brrrrrr
WaterGirl
@Heidi Mom: I just checked, and you’re good. You only donated once. Thank you
H.E.Wolf
Thank you for highlighting this race! As we just did with Good Kim in VA, sometimes a near-miss turns into a victory in the very next election… so our support of Aftyn Behn now might help her win this December, or the next time she runs!
WaterGirl
@Fair Economist: i don’t know if we will win, but I think we can win. So I agree that it’s definitely worth the fight.
But even if we don’t win, we can still send a message –
Deputinize America
@WaterGirl:
Nothing good about first snow. I had to bring in all the flowering stuff and now have a veritable jungle crowding out all light in the great room.
And don’t forget to bring in and empty the hummingbird feeders you left out for stragglers!
WaterGirl
Starting at 12:50 pm, we have an Angel match for up to $50 per person for a total of $500!
Thanks HinTN!
WaterGirl
@Deputinize America: Yeah, I had to do all that last week. It’s kind of heartbreaking for plant lovers.
But if it has to be cold, snow is the consolation prize, at least for me.
And those little snowmen in the sidebar make me happy.
stinger
Redistricting to dilute the liberal vote by pulling in Clarksville, an Army town whose soldiers might have missed two paychecks by the time the election rolls around, may not be the stable genius move Tennessee Republicans thought it would be.
In for $25.
Former Screaming Eagle here. Air assault, sir!
Heidi Mom
@WaterGirl: Thanks for checking!
WaterGirl
@stinger:
I just wanted to see that again.
You are our first matched donation!
Eolirin
I’m not terribly optimistic, I pretty much never will be with red districts in the deep south, but a win or narrow loss here would be seismic in its consequences, and that’s worth fighting for
I think there are also some independent candidates running? That maybe helps us here too.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: I’ve been hoping for an update from you – apologies if you have sent one and I missed it. All the substacks and newsletters are cluttering up my WG inbox and I have missed some messages. :-(
Jackie
How many families depend on SNAP in this district? How many families in this district are trying to fly to gramma’s for Thanksgiving? Or gramma lives in this district and will be without family due to cancelled flights?
This election is going to be exciting to watch!
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: I’ve been so tired it’s been a challenge to figure out how to put things into words, but the short version is things are improving and there’s still stuff that’s gonna take a few more months to resolve but everything looks good on those fronts. I feel like, absent a collapse of the social programs we need to maintain a stable existence that we’re going to be able to make things work, and that’s a big relief given where things were.
But there’s still some stuff we need to sort, so we’re not there just yet. Things feeling possible makes a big difference though
I’ll try to get you some more details when I’m able. Thank you again for your concern and assistance.
Timill
@WaterGirl: Four independents running.
Sample Ballot (Dickson Co)
Scout211
In for $50 for the Angel match.
Mercy
I do love a long shot and an angel match. In for $25.
skerry
I’m in for $50
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: Thanks for that!
That’s all good to know, and good news. Yes, hope, or at least faith, is a necessary ingredient for moving forward. I don’t need more details.
Not wanting to add anything else to your plate. I’m just glad things are moving in the right direction and nothing has totally blown up. Big yay for that!
WaterGirl
@Timill: Interesting. Not close enough (by a mile!) to the TN situation to know whether all those independents would be taking away potential votes for the D or the R candidate.
In the past year, I have come to think that Independent mostly means embarrassed to admit to being a Republican but still tending to vote in the R direction.
But I have no idea if that would be true in this district in TN.
stinger
@WaterGirl:
👍
Jackie @17: I don’t have numbers (and I’m sure you weren’t expecting them), but certainly the Clarksville area is full of Army families from all over the country, many of whom would fly “home” for Thanksgiving in a normal year.
Fair Economist
@WaterGirl: Oops! I hope I didn’t sound like I was disagreeing with you because I agree with everything you said.
Professor Bigfoot
I’m in for 25– ROLL THEM BONES!
WaterGirl
Thanks so much to everyone who is donating!
We are now at $150 of the $500 Angel match.
WaterGirl
@Fair Economist: No not at all, I was agreeing with you!
Just getting more specific about good things that would come from a race that’s much closer than expected, even without an outright win.
To me this feels like a win-win opportunity. Even though I desperately want this to be an actual WIN, and still hope it can be.
WaterGirl
@Professor Bigfoot: As they say about the Illinois lottery:
thank you.
WaterGirl
I am thinking of the Sunday in 2022 where we did a flash fundraiser for Janet Mills when Republican dark money were putting up last minute ads against Janet Mills, and we raised $8,000 for her in a single afternoon.
I don’t know if you guys recall that Janet Mills is a cousin of MomSense, who I very much miss on the blog.
Dmkingto
In for $50
kitfoxer
In for $50! Thanks, angel match!
Jackie
@stinger: I just looked up the area Dickson county district: it is part of the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN Metropolitan Statistical Area. My daughter lived in Franklin County for a few years. Lots of democratic voters in that region – at least 17 yrs ago. They were still minority, but not by much. Of course that was pre FFOTUS. Still… I have hope the currently growing anti-FFOTUS sentiment will prevail!
SuzieC
Super interesting! I’ve read that Holy Mike is counting on an R win in this district to neutralize Grijalva when (if) he reconvenes the house. In for $50.
Redshift
Indivisible (both Nashville and nationally) is also going in big on organizing for this campaign (kickoff call on Thursday), and they think we can win.
In for $50!
Gloria DryGarden
@Timill: does this district have a 50% rule, or is it whoever gets the most votes?
Grace
In for $25!
1,000 flouncing lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)
@Jackie: How many work at BNA & are dealing with flight cancellation chaos, while taking part in food drives for the TSA staffers?
Plus how much will this disrupt tourism in Nashville? Not everyone makes money off that, but a lot of people’s jobs are affected—or their second (or third) jobs are.
SNAP is a big issue everywhere , but it will not count FOR Trump with an increasing number, that’s for sure.
Any word on a Postcards for Voters or similar push here? I’ve got some cards & stamps on hand, but I having to be cautious about donations as I may be furloughed soon.
dc
In for $25
frosty
@Professor Bigfoot: I honestly LOL’d at this, so WG i’m in for $25.
thruppence
In for $50, a win here would be / will be huge.
sharon
In for $25
Marleedog
@SuzieC:
No, we went through this yesterday. Adelita’s 218th signature produces a majority which is needed to bring the petition to the floor for a vote.
@37, Gloria:
I believe that TN is first past the post.
In for $50.
Almost Retired
Wonderful! I’m in for $50 when I get home from my hike (note to self: think twice about hiking with people 30 years younger than you).
Also, I assume the reference to “Virgin” Thornton in the post was a typo, unless you have some highly personal information about Mr. Thornton that the rest of us don’t :)
NightSky
fyi I donated $50 yesterday at her website after reading about her in someone’s comments. Don’t know if that helps w/ your matching, but at least it verifies that commenters’ tips can be very useful! I really appreciate BJ’s donations info and strategies.
storm777
In for $25! Thanks!!
Avalie
Donated $50! Go Aftyn!
emrys
In for $25
kalakal
In for $25 , it went a bit weird and went round twice so it may be $50 but I don’t think so
Karen H
I’m in for $50.
Jackie
Can SNAP funds actually be retracted – as demanded by the FNA official website?
Sincerely? Mr Penn is sincere in his commitment to starving Americans, while FFOTUS has yet another exorbitant gala at MAL last night. I wonder if he managed to stay awake.
WaterGirl
Okay, between the two matches (one up to $50 and the other up to $25)…
we are at $200 and $450 respectively.
So two donations of $25 and one more donation of $50 before both Angel matches are complete!
Now I’ll go check my email and see if by some miracle there is another Angel match waiting for me. :-)
Omnes Omnibus
@Jackie: This is Wisconsin’s response.
Deputinize America
Per CNN, Making America Great Again:
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said today he believes air travel will be “reduced to a trickle” ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. More than 1,000 flights have been canceled so far today, according to FlightAware, with the number expected to climb.
“The two weeks before Thanksgiving, you’re going to see air travel be reduced to a trickle. We have a number of people who want to get home for the holidays, they want to see their family, they want to celebrate this great American holiday,” Duffy told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”
“Listen, many of them are not going to be able to get on an airplane, because there are not going to be that many flights that fly if (the government) doesn’t open back up.”
Asked how many Americans’ Thanksgiving travel plans could be impacted, Duffy said, “I think the number is going to be substantial. Again, you look at the trend line Jake, and it’s only gotten worse as we’ve gone through the shutdown.”
Airlines have started implementing a 4% reduction in domestic flights at 40 of the busiest US airports, following an order from the Federal Aviation Administration.
Duffy has previously warned that the percentage could rise to 15-20% if the government shutdown doesn’t end soon.
“We’re working overtime to make sure that that it is safe to travel,” Duffy said. “And so, if we have staffing triggers in locations in the American airspace, what we’ll do is we will slow traffic, which means you’ll have delays, and then airlines might cancel flights.”
silvery
Donated $100
Emily68
PostcardsToVoters.org has a postcard writing campaign right now for Behn. Get yourself some 4×6 index cards, postcard stamps and a pen and you’ll be in business.
Wapiti
In for $50
BenInNM
In for $10
Wolvesvalley
Here’s $50. Go, Aftyn!
Timill
@Gloria DryGarden: Tennessee doesn’t believe in newfangled things, so it’s pluralities all the way.
Indeed, I believe transferable vote counting has been outlawed here.
[No word on the cats yet, for those who were wondering]
Jackie
@Omnes Omnibus: LOVE THAT! I hope every governor replies exactly the same.
Glidwrith
In for $50
XeckyGilchrist
Done. Thanks!
Scout211
@Jackie:
Oregon AG says no. I’m trying to find California’s response.
Jackie
Has Duffy even looked at the polls? Americans aren’t blaming the Democrats for the chaos happening right now, due to THIS administration’s shutdown!
Duffy should share his views on CNN and MSNBC – instead of his safe space on FAUX. I’ve seen that even FAUX viewers are becoming skeptical of what’s being sold to them. They know what Party controls Congress and the WH.
Jackie
@Scout211: I haven’t seen WA state Gov. Ferguson’s response, but I’m sure I know his reply ;-)
It’ll be more revealing of how (R) governors respond.
Deputinize America
@Jackie:
This is how you completely lock up international leisure travel to and from the US, both outbound and inbound. Foreign flag carriers won’t want to operate on small capacity or even worse, have equipment and staff stuck here because the ATC network is frozen for whatever the ATC analog is to “blue flu”, and there goes the whole ballgame.
And no, I’m not happily replacing a European, Asian or Australian trip to a fart-encrusted car ride to Rock City, Ruby Falls or some shitty roadside hotel 3 blocks off a rundown beach and across A1A in Florida.
WaterGirl
Both Angel matches are complete! And we are already about 1/3 of the way to our goal!
Big thanks to everyone!
Martin
@Deputinize America: Vegas is banking on decent turnout for the F1 race in 2 weeks. Tickets are expensive which means they rely on a lot of travel to pull those fans in who are willing to pay.
Nevada went for Trump last year and gets to touch the stove for a while longer.
HinTN
@Jackie: Franklin ain’t Franklin County by a country mile. 😎 We in Franklin County suffer from representation by the odious Scott DesJarlais. Gerrymandering Nashville meant making the R margins smaller. Hope springs eternal.
Scout211
As I posted downstairs, several news agencies are reporting the Senate is nearing a deal to open the government.
I left the details downstairs so as not to cause chaos in this fundraising thread.
Comment here.
HinTN
@HinTN: Angel match is in. Thank all y’all for betting against the house. 🤞👏✌️
HinTN
@WaterGirl: I meant to reply to you… Thanks for pushing this team to play!
Deputinize America
@Scout211:
The trial float looks like a total fold to me, and is so useless that it is not even worth consideration. If true, this entire government needs (and deserves) to collapse like the Saigon regime in 1975.
Anybody know if the PRC is hiring ethnic whites to sell out America for great pay and benefits, or do they only trust ethnic Chinese as influence brokers?
HinTN
@Deputinize America: Yeah, that’s my read, too. Said it downstairs but, fuckit, I’ll say it here. It’s caving when they have the best leverage.
They Call Me Noni
Donated $25
Thank you WG for all you do in bringing fundraising to our attention.
WaterGirl
@HinTN: Thank you for helping to get things going with your Angel match!
OGLiberal
@HinTN: If true, fucking cowards. Whose pocket are these 10 in? Just sick of it all. A promise on a vote on subsidies in the future? Why the fuck do we even try? I thought election had consequences. Oh, but those were just silly blue states…everybody still loves Trump and hates the Dems.
It would be next to impossible for me and my family to leave the country but this shit happens, I give the fuck up. Commence yelling at the Debbie Downer…now.
Omnes Omnibus
If this “deal” happens, I will be as angry as anyone, but can we wait for a cave before we get mad about Dems caving? Call your Dem senators now. Let them know what you think.
Omnes Omnibus
I just called Baldwin’s office and left a message.
HinTN
@Omnes Omnibus: I hope her phone is burning up. Yes, I’ll wait and maybe this is a strategic leak to head it off. Doesn’t stop me being unhappy with the prospect.
WaterGirl
If everyone who is enraged at the prospect of Dems caving on the shutdown gave $1, we would hit our goal in no time.
rodwell
Donated $40. This is a longshot but after Tuesday you never know.
Sandia Blanca
I’m in for $50. Thanks!
sixthdoctor
In for 25.
WaterGirl
@Almost Retired: oops! Virgil.
ewrunning
In for $50. I pointed out to some people today that with the shutdown reaching the 40 mark, federal workers have now worked more than 10 percent of the year (a tithe) for no pay.
Gretchen
@1,000 flouncing lurkers (was fidelioscabinet): Postcards to Voters is doing a campaign for her. They’re working with the campaign to complement their efforts.
KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager))
I stayed up until 3:45 Sunday morning watching dance and teacher reels, and slept most of the day, so I’m just seeing this. There’s a rumor that Pastor Johnson is keeping the House closed until this election so that Grijalva’s signature on the Epstein petition won’t be enough to force a vote, so a Dem win would just be sooooo awesome! It looks like he’s going to be forced to bring it back into session anyway to vote on the Dem cave on the shutdown, but whatevs, it will still be a kick in his teeth.
I’m in for $100. It would be more, but I just spent a lot on glasses & the food bank. :-(