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You are here: Home / Elections / Local Races / Late Night Open Thread: Jasmine Crockett Is Making Her Decision

Late Night Open Thread: Jasmine Crockett Is Making Her Decision

by Anne Laurie|  December 8, 20252:15 am| 18 Comments

This post is in: Local Races, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

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Jasmine Crockett has two cashier's checks made out to use on Monday: one to submit if she files for reelection for her US House seat, the other to jump into the already competitive Texas Democratic primary for US Senate. https://cnn.it/3KwOyfK

[image or embed]

— CNN (@cnn.com) December 7, 2025 at 9:00 AM

fwiw i do not think “divisive comments” are going to be a major problem in a race against ken paxton

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) December 7, 2025 at 2:01 PM

Jasmine Crockett scrambles Democrats as she weighs a last-minute Texas Senate run (via FoxSanAntonio):

… Crockett is deciding whether to seek reelection to the U.S. House or make a surprise bid for the Senate.

She has prepared for both possibilities, writing two cashier’s checks and planning to cash in one just 90 minutes after her announcement on Monday.

If Crockett enters the Senate primary, she will join a crowded Democratic field that already includes Rep. Colin Allred and State Rep. James Talarico.

Republicans believe her candidacy could energize their base as Sen. John Cornyn campaigns for reelection…

Bari Weiss’ CBS expands on that possibility:

… Our partners at CBS News report that Crockett confirmed she spoke with the Democrats already in the Senate race: former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred, who ran against Senator Cruz last year, and State Representative James Talarico of Austin.

Analysts believe the primary will end in a runoff election at the end of May. That’s the same likelihood in the Republican primary, where incumbent John Cornyn is trying to hold onto his seat against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt.

When asked if a Crockett run for Senate will damage Talarico’s or Allred’s campaigns more, Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic PAC, told CBS News Texas, “I don’t know if it hurts one more than the other. I think that since Colin ran last time and was the nominee, that anybody challenging that kind of takes away a vote that he had claimed in the past.”

Angle continued, “But that doesn’t mean that he couldn’t prevail in this primary. I think it’s going to be very competitive. They’ve got to think in terms of two rounds. There will be a runoff. How do I get to the runoff? And then, what do I do in order to get to the runoff? Then, what do I do in order to get the support of whoever doesn’t make the runoff? It becomes three-dimensional chess at this point in a challenger for all three of them.”

Crockett told CBS News Texas last month that for her to run for the Senate, she would need polling results showing that she could win a general election next year by expanding the electorate. Crockett has made headlines by clashing with President Trump.

When asked if she will energize Republicans in addition to Democrats, Angle said, “She could. I think that that’s the real challenge is for her to be able to increase turnout for not just her race, but for other Democrats without motivating Republicans. I’ve been doing politics in Texas a long time. Republicans don’t have much to brag about at any level. I’m not sure that being upset with one or two Democrats is going to overcome the fact that they’re profoundly disappointed with Republican leadership that’s failing them.”

Vinny Minchillo, a Republican consultant in North Texas, told CBS News Texas that he agrees with those who believe Crockett cannot win a general election in the Lone Star State.

“I think she’s a real polarizing candidate,” Minchillo said. “She’s fun to watch, in which she goes crazy on the news. It’s always interesting to watch. But I just don’t think that’s going to work in a general election. I think she is too extreme and too far left for even Texas Democrats.” …

“We got a long way to go. This has already been a nasty race to begin with,” Minchillo said. “Cornyn came out of the gate saying that he was going to take Paxton to the woodshed and put in words stronger than that. This has been pretty nasty. Cornyn has spent the summer pounding on Paxton. He’s moved numbers in his favor. Now, we’re seeing a little bit of back and forth. So, this is going to be really rough. The Cornyn folks have actually opened a second front. They’re starting to beat on Wesley Hunt. So that’s going to be tough. I don’t see a path to be honest for Hunt. I just don’t think he can beat either Cornyn or Paxton. Maybe a better chance to beat Cornyn, but I just don’t think he can get there unless he’s got a lot of money.”

Minchillo predicts that, between all six candidates and their campaigns and the third-party groups that support them for both the primary, primary runoff, and general election, this race could cost at least $750 million…

Have y’all seen the nonsense with the candidate who failed to get honorable mention on Nov 4th going off on a voter calling her a Jasmine Crockett “type?”
Well I’m going to drop a Tshirt. If you have design ideas drop them below 😍👇🏾

— Jasmine Crockett (@jasmineforus.bsky.social) November 6, 2025 at 1:08 PM

I would absolutely buy this version:

This is a quick down and dirty version, but I’d buy a T-shirt like this. (Image is public domain, taken from the original WPA poster)

[image or embed]

— Jen (@jkmahal.bsky.social) November 6, 2025 at 1:38 PM

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Reader Interactions

18Comments

  1. 1.

    Msb

    December 8, 2025 at 2:19 am

    I love Crockett but hope she’ll stick with the House. Texas is a racist state and Talarico is already in the race.

  2. 2.

    Gretchen

    December 8, 2025 at 2:24 am

    It looks like the new Texas maps would gerrymander her out of her seat, but I think Tallarico has the best shot at winning.  Alfred ran and lost last time and I don’t know why his chances would be better this time

  3. 3.

    prostratedragon

    December 8, 2025 at 4:01 am

    @Gretchen:  Too bad about that, but a wave might give her a boost.

  4. 4.

    Gloria DryGarden

    December 8, 2025 at 4:31 am

    I love her being in congress. Shes helping the whole country

  5. 5.

    Baud

    December 8, 2025 at 4:49 am

    @Msb:

    That’s how I feel. I haven’t looked at any polling, but it’s hard to see Texas going from what it has been to Crockett.

  6. 6.

    Gretchen

    December 8, 2025 at 4:53 am

    @Baud: Yes, Crockett has been very effective in the House. I’d like to see her keep her seat there and Tallarico win the Senate seat. He’s very effective communicating with normies.

  7. 7.

    Baud

    December 8, 2025 at 4:54 am

    @Gretchen:

    I like Tallarico, but I’m personally done with predicting what will work with normies.

  8. 8.

    Shalimar

    December 8, 2025 at 5:16 am

    I see Crockett as Texas’s Katie Porter, a super-educated, effective House member who is never going to win statewide office.  Without the negatives that Porter has been unintentionally cultivating the last few years.

  9. 9.

    JoyceH

    December 8, 2025 at 5:51 am

    @Shalimar: I do enjoy watching Crockett taking it to the Repubs with verve and panache, but to me that’s House energy, not Senate energy.

  10. 10.

    Balconesfault

    December 8, 2025 at 5:54 am

    It’s sad, but sans the transexuals in sports issue, I strongly believe that Allred would have taken out the highly unpopular Cruz even in a year with Trump on the ballot.

    That said, I do like Talarico’s communication style.

    Crockett belongs in the House … haven’t looked at her new redistrict, and if a 10- 13 point swing blue could keep her in office.

     

    Here’s just hoping that during the primary they focus their fire on Trump and Republicans, and not each other.

  11. 11.

    Betty Cracker

    December 8, 2025 at 6:32 am

    @Balconesfault: IIRC, Cruz won by something like 10 points, and Allred’s campaign was well funded. It’s difficult to believe scare-mongering about trans kids in sports could produce that kind of result, but I don’t understand how voters could elect and reelect corrupt assholes like Cruz and Trump in the first place, so who knows.

    If I were a Texas voter, I’d support Talarico because I agree with his priorities and find his communication style effective. But again, who knows. I agree with you about the Dem candidates focusing their fire on the actual villains.

  12. 12.

    Josie

    December 8, 2025 at 6:36 am

    As a lifelong Democratic Texan, I think Talarico has the best chance of winning in Texas. I hope that Crockett doesn’t interfere with that. She is a strong and effective representative, but I doubt her ability to win a statewide race here.​

  13. 13.

    lowtechcyclist

    December 8, 2025 at 6:50 am

    I know Texas politics about as well as I know the dark side of the moon, so take my thoughts with a whole mine full of salt.

    Anyway, I’m torn. My first thought is winning is a long shot no matter who we run because Texas.  And if we’re gonna lose anyway, we should lose with the candidate that is best at energizing our voters. And that’s what a primary should tell us.  But Crockett definitely brings a lot of energy.

    My second thought is that if there’s a year we’ve got a shot at winning Texas, 2026 is that year, let’s not fuck it up.  And I agree that Texas being Texas, it’s hard to see Crockett actually winning.

  14. 14.

    Princess

    December 8, 2025 at 7:10 am

    I guess she’s been gerrymandered out of her seat. But if she can’t bring in new voters to keep that seat in what will be a favorable environment for Dems, it’s hard to imagine her bringing in enough new voters in the whole state of Texas to win a senate seat.

  15. 15.

    Another Scott

    December 8, 2025 at 7:42 am

    Texas Tribune:

    North Texas is home to three congressional Democrats — Reps. Jasmine Crockett, Julie Johnson and Marc Veasey — whose ranks will likely shrink to two.

    The 32nd congressional district, occupied by Johnson, was reconfigured to stretch into East Texas, transforming a seat former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024 by about 24 percentage points into one that President Donald Trump would have won by 18 percentage points.

    The newly-drawn 30th District, currently occupied by Crockett, contains a large portion of Crockett’s old district and a piece of Tarrant County, Veasey’s political base. The 33rd District is now based entirely in Dallas County and contains a nearly even number of voters from each of the three Democrats’ old districts.

    Crockett’s potential entry into the U.S. Senate race is the final domino hanging over Democratic plans in North Texas. If she jumps into the Senate race — a decision she has said she is leaning toward — then the path is clear for Veasey and Johnson to run in different districts.

    Good luck to her, and all of the good people of Texas, no matter what she decides.

    Forward!!

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  16. 16.

    Scout211

    December 8, 2025 at 9:19 am

    Former Rep. Colin Allred is ending his U.S. Senate campaign Texas and instead will attempt a House comeback bid, potentially paving the way for Rep. Jasmine Crockett to become the early favorite for Democrats’ nomination in a state they have long hoped to make more competitive.

  17. 17.

    OlFroth

    December 8, 2025 at 10:48 am

    That is NOT a WPA poster, nor is it “Rosie the Riveter.”  Its a poster produced by Westinghouse to encourage worker productivity.

  18. 18.

    OlFroth

    December 8, 2025 at 10:53 am

    Forgot to include the link:  (126) Why this image does NOT represent Rosie the Riveter, and who does? – YouTube

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